The June draft order, slot values, and total pool amounts are here on the site for your reference, and our ever-updating draft rankings on THE BOARD now have 314 names for this draft class, which means it’s time for our first 2019 top 10 mock draft. I think you know how this goes, but I’ll reiterate: I’m projecting what I think will happen after consulting with dozens of industry sources, not ranking these players on talent, as THE BOARD does that.

1. Orioles – Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
Rutschman still has a good lead here. It sounds like he had a shoulder injury in high school from football contact, but he hasn’t missed any time in college and clubs have mostly decided that even a worst case scenario for this issue still makes him the best prospect in the draft. There’s chatter Baltimore has made calls to explore backup options/bulk approach like new GM Mike Elias did while running the draft in Houston, but that’s seen as a long shot at this point. It’s also worth noting Baltimore’s history of whacking players’ medicals, but it’s unclear if the regime change alters that propensity.

2. Royals – Bobby Witt, Jr., SS, Coleyville Heritage HS (TX)
Two weeks ago, I mentioned that the early buzz was that Andrew Vaughn had the lead for this pick. Late last spring, GM Dayton Moore saw amateur games for the first time in awhile and Kansas City’s first 11 selections were college picks. This came on the heels of four of their previous six first round picks coming from the prep ranks, with their draft philosophy leaning that way as a whole.

It seemed like a philosophical shift at the beginning of a rebuild, but I’ve talked to about four times as many sources on this topic in the last two weeks as I did before, and almost everyone since then is insistent that Witt is the pick here. Vaughn and possibly Hunter Bishop have been mentioned as backup plans, but the top three picks are thought to be pretty locked in at this juncture, with a couple scouting directors guessing it’s about 90% certain to go the way I’ve outlined here.

3. White Sox – Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Cal
With a recent run in the past three drafts of safer-skewing, college hitters in Chicago’s top three round picks (Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Zack Collins, Alex Call), and a rebuild reaching the critical stages, a quick-to-the-majors prospect makes the most sense here. With Jose Abreu on the downside of his career, Vaughn even fills a need: exactly what the White Sox are looking for here. Nick Lodolo sounds like the most likely backup option if Vaughn and Rutschman go first and second. GM Rick Hahn has seen C.J. Abrams this spring and some teams think the Sox would take Witt if he slides, but none of those alternate scenarios seem likely, with almost everyone in the industry saying Chicago wants a collegiate player here and covet Vaughn.

4. Marlins – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
This is where things start to get a little tricky. After NHSI, where new scouting director D.J. Svihlik and VP Gary Denbo were locked in on Abrams and seemingly uninterested in Riley Greene on an adjacent field, industry rumors intensified that Abrams was the preference. Earlier in the spring, most believed there was a preference for a college player here, with Lodolo the most common connection. Svihlik used to be on staff at Vanderbilt and some think J.J. Bleday also makes sense here. I’ll go with Abrams for now, but it’s pretty close between these three options and I get the impression this decision is far from made, anyway. Denbo has also seen Witt a few times.

5. Tigers – Riley Greene, RF, Hagerty HS (FL)
The Tigers have been all over Greene all spring, and one of their scouts has a child that goes to Greene’s high school. He’s struggled a bit lately (his swing was too big when I saw him a few weeks ago and he performed just okay at NHSI) but was a strong performer all summer, so most don’t consider it a long-term concern. There isn’t much consensus on whom else Detroit would consider here as another option, though Witt has been mentioned in the event he slides. Power arms and SEC performers are historically the Tigers’ type, so Bleday and his nation-leading 20 homers also makes some sense, but Greene appears to be their preference and he’s almost certain to be available.

6. Padres – Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU
The Padres has been heavy on Bleday and Lodolo, appearing to lean to college both because that’s what’s here and because it fits their new competitive window. Bishop just got a long look from the decision makers and appears also to be entering their mix, but is believed to be more of a third option at this point. Given GM A.J. Preller’s past decisions, this would also appear to be a spot where a sliding Witt or Abrams could get snapped up. Kentucky lefty Zack Thompson also seems to be in the mix.

7. Reds – J.J. Bleday, RF, Vanderbilt
It sounds like the Reds are on Greene, Abrams, and Lodolo, who are all gone in this scenario. Bleday (video) is the consensus best guy on the board and sources have indicated the preference here is college, with last year’s pick of Jonathan India serving as a template for new scouting director Brad Meador. Cincy still needs pitching and seems the most aggressive on junior college righty Jackson Rutledge, though he fits more as an overslot second pick than underslot first pick.

8. Rangers – Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia
Texas is the toughest club to peg in this mock. It sounds like they aren’t excited about what they think will be available to them, and clubs picking around here also don’t have much feel for where Texas leans. This appears to be the floor for Abrams and Witt if they slide, but they’re unlikely to get here. Manoah and Bishop both make sense, but the most common rumor is that the Rangers go below slot for a pitcher to set up an overslot choice with their second pick. Manoah is perceived to be an easier sign than some other options with a cleaner medical than late-rising Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson.

9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
This pick is compensation for not signing Carter Stewart last year, and he projects to go much later this year, so the Braves appear to have come out ahead in the exchange. This pick also isn’t protected if Atlanta doesn’t sign whoever they take, so a tough sign likely isn’t an option. It appears Atlanta would take Abrams or Witt if they get here, and they’ve been scouting Lodolo, Bleday, and Bishop as primary options, with a good chance one of them gets to this pick. It’s unclear if the other prospects on the board at this point excite them, in the event that Texas takes Bishop and all the players Atlanta has been tied to are off the board.

10. Giants – Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
This weekend, the Giants sent in their heavy hitters to see Missouri RF Kameron Misner at Georgia (his swing still needs some work). He may have the most upside on the board, but he hasn’t been good in SEC play and lacks a summer track record to fall back on. Stott could be another Brandon Crawford, though it’s unclear how the new regime will make high-profile decisions like these. The rumor is that this is another pick that will go college, and likely a college hitter, with new Giants GM Farhan Zaidi having prized versatility and defensive value when building the Dodgers.

Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson has been closing hard lately (while Lodolo has just been okay the last few weeks), so he could jump into the top 10, but some clubs are concerned about his elbow long-term, so that keeps him just out of this projection. Washington prep CF Corbin Carroll is the other prospect who has been mentioned at more than a few top 10 slots, but more as another player in the mix than a primary target. With picks 6-10 leaning college, and three prep bats in the top five, he slides just out of this projection, but could easily jump in future versions. The next two college bats (North Carolina 1B Michael Busch (vide0) and Texas Tech 3B Josh Jung) would also figure to go quickly if we had continued this exercise, but unfortunately, the information gets much spottier at this juncture of the draft.

It would not have been a surprise if Christian Yelich had leveled off after coming out of Baseball Nowhere (a.k.a. Miami), joining the Brewers, and winning the NL MVP award. He may yet do that, because nobody makes baseball look so easy for very long. Thus far this season, however, the 27-year-old slugger appears to be improving in several areas, and despite Monday night’s 0-for-4 against the Cardinals — just the third time in 24 games that he had failed to get on base this year — he’s been as hot as any hitter in baseball, batting .337/.439/.820 with a 210 wRC+.

Yelich began his 2019 season with an Opening Day home run off the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas, and proceeded to go yard again in each of the next three games, thus joining Willie Mays (1971), Mark McGwire (1998), Nelson Cruz (2011), Chris Davis (2013), and Trevor Story (2016) as the only players to homer in each of his team’s first four games. After a relatively quiet 12-game stretch in which he homered just once, he broke out with a three-homer game against the Cardinals on April 15, the first hat trick of his career. Thus began an eight-homers-in-six-games binge that, if not for a bit of highway robbery by the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger on Sunday, would have been nine homers in seven games.

Even with his two-game drought, Yelich’s 13 homers in his team’s first 24 games put him in select company. Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Robbie Erlin, Tommy Hottovy, and Marcus Stroman — on how they learned and developed their curveballs.

———

Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres

“I started throwing my curve when I was nine. Everybody frowns upon that — throwing one that young — but I never had any problems. Basically, my dad put me on one knee and taught me. It was almost like casting a fishing reel. What that does is… when you throw a curveball, you want your elbow to come up a little bit. If your elbow is coming down to throw the curveball, you get exposed. That’s when it’s dangerous [health-wise].

“My dad pitched in high school — he was a righty — and he told me that’s how he was taught. So yeah, he put me on his knee and said, ‘Just flip it to me. Just work on spin. We’re not throwing it hard.’ Eventually I got the feel of it. I started throwing it in games — flipping it out in games — but only once in awhile. Not too much as a kid. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about the numbers behind the Yankees’ historic injury stack, an inspired piece of pitch-framing by Francisco Cervelli, Ramon Laureano as a human highlight machine, how often hitters would (and should) swing if they knew every pitch would be in the strike zone but still be called a ball, and the hitters they’re paying particular attention to, then discuss how Christian Yelich elevated himself onto a Hall of Fame trajectory, how the Marlins’ latest round of trades looks in retrospect, the Brewers’ WAR without Yelich, how every new breakout burnishes the greatness of Mike Trout, and the fastest and slowest runners of the season so far (plus an update on the Royals’ base-stealing).

Audio intro: Ben Folds Five, "Missing the War"
Audio outro: MGMT, "Someone’s Missing"

Link to list of most players on the IL
Link to list of most WAR on the IL
Link to Yankees injury timetables
Link to video of Cervelli frame
Link to Jeff on Molina frames
Link to video of Laureano play
Link to FanGraphs Guts! page
Link to MLB.tv GameChanger
Link to Ben on GameChanger
Link to Ben on Harper’s hot streak
Link to Sam on Hall of Fame probabilities
Link to Sam on Yelich
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

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It’s still April, so it may be premature to talk about the year’s most extreme events. If a home run was hit on a high pitch, there will likely be a higher pitch that gets hit for a home run later on. Think an umpire called a perfect pitch a ball? We’ve got plenty more time for an even better pitch to be missed. However, I think we may have already seen the best pitch frame of the year.

I don’t mean the pitch furthest outside the strike zone that gets called a strike — there’s still plenty of time for that to change. I’m talking about full dedication to the craft of pitch framing. Francisco Cervelli sold a pitch against the Cubs not just with his glove and his positioning, but with his whole being. You’ll probably see worse pitches sold for strikes this year. Heck, you might see Cervelli get more egregious calls than this. You won’t see better framing, though — I can pretty much guarantee it. Read the rest of this entry »

As players decline, we tend to focus on what they have lost since their primes. Whether it is velocity, speed, or power, what is newly absent is typically most notable. This is particularly true for once-great, Hall of Fame-type players like Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers’ ace is one of the greatest pitchers of all time, but the last few seasons have seen his fastball velocity dip considerably, which has negatively affected his numbers. I noted late last season that Kershaw was no longer a fastball pitcher, and instead used his slider as his dominant pitch. This spring, some focus switched to his changeup, and how Kershaw might need something new to combat what he has lost. So far this season, Kershaw has been effective by going to his strengths and using hitter tendencies to his advantage.

Through two starts, Clayton Kershaw has pitched 13 innings, struck out 13 batters, walked four, and given up two homers and four runs total. If we assume that Kershaw will give up homers at a slightly lesser rate but keep the same strikeout and walk numbers, he’d be one of the best 10 or 20 starting pitchers the rest of the season. While we obviously can’t say he will do that, we can look at what he’s done so far and see what has made him successful this season compared to years past. While we won’t focus on Kershaw’s fastball, we can’t escape it entirely. Here’s the graph I used last year showing how Kershaw’s slider usage overtook his fastball.

That trend has held up so far this season, with Kershaw throwing one more slider than fastball in his first two games. That fastball has averaged just over 90 mph, several ticks slower than his prime. It’s a fine fastball, but the velocity is below-average. To get batters out, Kershaw has been forced to go away from his fastball and to his offspeed offerings. This is particularly true when Kershaw is ahead. The graph below shows Kershaw’s fastball usage when ahead in the count since 2011. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Houston Astros
Level: Triple-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 7   FV: 50
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2B

Notes
It’s important that we look at Triple-A statistical performances (especially in the PCL) in a different light given what is transpiring with the baseball itself, but we can still appreciate Alvarez’s blistering start with that in mind. After a little over two weeks, he’s slugging .870; nine of his 17 hits have been home runs, and he has one more walk than strikeout thus far. He’s played eight games in left field, five at DH, two at first base, and one in right field. Most all of Houston’s big league hitters are mashing right now (Tyler White is hitting lefties, at least), so there’s not an obvious short-term path to big league playing time here. If anyone goes down though, perhaps Alvarez will get the call instead of a struggling Kyle Tucker. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this month, Braves franchise building block Ozzie Albies agreed to an eyebrow-raising extension that was widely considered to be among the most team-friendly in recent baseball history.

There was already speculation that the deteriorating state of free agency appeared to be incentivizing extensions, but Albies’ deal was shocking even given those concerns. Veteran baseball scribe Jeff Passan went so far as to say that the deal was being considered in major league circles as “among the worst ever for a player.” That leads to a number of uncomfortable questions about how these deals are to be handled in the future – by players, by the league, and by the Major League Baseball Players’ Association.

Let’s start with Albies’ representation, an agency called SportsMeter. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ Agency Database, Albies is among the agency’s more marquee clients, with the firm also representing Craig Kimbrel, Nicholas Castellanos, and Francisco Lindor, among others. (According to some reports, SportsMeter also represents Cleveland ace Corey Kluber.)

SportsMeter hasn’t had a great offseason. Not only did they negotiate the much-maligned Albies deal, but they have been unable to broker a contract for their biggest pitcher client, Kimbrel, despite entering the offseason with dreams of a nine-figure contract. That’s led to some speculation from former Brave Eric O’Flaherty that the Albies deal was part of an effort to land a deal for Kimbrel with the savings. Other players certainly haven’t been shy in expressing their feelings about it. Castellanos, who is headed for free agency, may have had similar feelings when he switched his representation to Scott Boras last week. Other baseball writers like Passan and Evan Altman have suggested that SportsMeter may have negotiated the deal now so as to obtain a commission before Albies decided to sign with a bigger agency. Read the rest of this entry »

Runs Batted In is not the most reliable measure of a player’s offensive contribution in baseball. It isn’t particularly fair to evaluate a hitter based on how many players get on base in front of him. As the great William Shakespeare once wrote, “Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have runners in scoring position thrust upon them.” However, RBI has given rise to one under-appreciated stat. From 2013-2016, three of the most RBI-happy hitters on the St. Louis Cardinals roster were named Matt, namely Adams, Carpenter, Holliday. This led to the creation of an unofficial fan stat known as RMI (Runs Matted In), or runs batted in by players named Matt. Having enjoyed the RMI years in St. Louis, I thought I’d check in on baseball’s various Matts, and see how they stack up in 2019.

How many Matts do you know off the top of your head? Two, or perhaps three? There are actually 11 Matts with at least one plate appearance this season, making it the most common name among hitters. (Due to lack of plate appearances, American League pitchers are largely excluded from this statistic.) Let’s take a look at where we stand by team in 2019:

Not every team has a Matt, and not every Matt is a great hitter. Andriese and Koch are both pitchers for the Diamondbacks, neither of whom has so much as a hit. Barnes is one of only two Matts counted in the AL and is a pitcher for the Red Sox. He, unsurprisingly, also has not tallied a hit. Up next is Matt Joyce of Atlanta, who has Matted In three runs on the season. Then comes Matt Strahm of the Padres, another pitcher, who has two hits and a .500 average but no RMIs. Finally, there is Matt Olson, who has Matted in zero runs over six plate appearances for Oakland.

There is a three-way tie for third place in the current RMI standings, with each hitter tallying five. Matt Carpenter has played in 21 games and had 93 plate appearances, while his Cardinals compatriot, Matt Wieters, has just as many RMI while appearing in fewer than a third as many games. Rounding out the bronze medalists is Matt Kemp, who has 62 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 22 in Cincinnati. Contrast that with Carpenter’s 93 wRC+. How can three totally different players have the same number of RMI? We might speculate that RMI carries with it the same limitations as the more official, though still silly, RBI.

Carpenter has the unenviable position of hitting leadoff, a spot that notoriously lacks runners to bat in. The two hitters before him in an inning are generally first, the worst-hitting position player and second, the pitcher. He does, however, take second place among all Matts with three home runs. Four of his five RMI come from those homers, so he generates a lot of his RMIs by scoring himself, a Matt Matting In a Matt, as it were.

Playing backup to Yadier Molina is not going to yield many plate appearances, so we shouldn’t expect much out of Wieters in this category as the season progresses. However, he’s batting .333 in 11 plate appearances and has a wRC+ of 87, so while he’s still below average, he’s still making positive contributions when he can, especially by catching standards. Kemp, however, is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He bats further down in the lineup than Carpenter, and has hit .182 with runners in scoring position, yet he is at the same RMI level as the other two. Wieters has a quarter of Kemp’s plate appearances, but has Matted In the same number of runs.

Our silver medalist is the one and only Matt Adams. With ten Runs Matted In on the season and only 31 plate appearances, Big City is once again proving himself to be a force off the Nationals bench. His 84 wRC+ isn’t great, but five of his seven hits have gone for extra bases. Adams’ hits seem to come at more opportune times than Kemp’s, but does that make him better? Or could it be that as a pinch hitter, Matt Adams usually comes up with runners already on base? When it comes to RMI it does not Matt-er.

[Ba-dum tssh.]

The gold medal for Runs Matted In goes to the Athletics’ Matt Chapman. He has a 159 wRC+ in 94 plate appearances and has driven in 15 runs. He leads the “Matt Pack” with six homers in 22 games. Does that make him the Matt-riarch?

[Hold for applause.]

None of these players have similar profiles. Some hit in the middle of the order while others hit leadoff. Some hit for power while others get on base so they can be Matted In by the next hitter. Some are more Matt-ure at the plate than others. At the end of the day, you cannot judge a hitter, not even the Matts, by how many runs they drive in. It just doesn’t tell all that much.

There are other contenders for the most common name. Around baseball there are 10 hitters named Tyler and 10 named Jose, making it a tie for second place. Counting gets a little tricky once nicknames are included. For example, there are two Jacobs and seven Jakes; three Joes and five Joeys; three Johns, three Jonathans, and two Jons. The most common name with a diminutive is Michael, eight of them spanning the alphabet from A. Taylor to Wacha. They are supplemented by six Mikes, making them the quasi-leader with a total of 14.

Will you see RMI appearing on the FanGraphs leaderboards any time soon? No. But RMI is just as useful a statistic as RBI and twice as punny. As for the Matts in Arizona, Boston, and San Diego? To quote Dr. Seuss, “Your time will come, we love every Matt! A hitter’s a hitter, no matter how well they bat.”

As you probably already know, strikeouts are on an upward trend. Since 2005, baseball’s strikeout rate has increased every single year, and here in the first few weeks of 2019, it is up yet again. Hitters are striking out at a 23.3% rate, already representing a percentage point increase over their 2018 mark.

There is one team, though, that appears to be bucking the strikeout trend in a big way. Through 776 plate appearances, the Angels have struck out just 16.0% of the time, the lowest rate of any team in the major leagues. In the same breath, Los Angeles’ hitters are walking at the 14th-highest rate, 9.7%. This excellent combination of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks has resulted in a team-wide 0.60 BB/K ratio, which unsurprisingly leads the league.

Of course, a lot of this might have to do with Mike Trout. In 77 plate appearances, Trout has 18 walks to just nine strikeouts. But even if you were to remove Trout from the Angels’ team-wide stats, their strikeout rate would only “jump” to 16.5%. This would still be 1.9 percentage points better than the next closest team, the Athletics (18.4%).

This unique characteristic that Angels hitters are demonstrating clearly goes beyond Trout. In fact, among the 10 Angels hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, four have more walks than strikeouts. Across the rest of the league, there are only seven non-Angels hitters who have 50 plate appearances and can say the same, and no other team has more than two. Read the rest of this entry »