NEW YORK — Anthony Volpe’s go-ahead grand slam in the third inning will be what Yankees fans remember most from Game 4 of the World Series.

It was the highest-leverage swing of his young career, the most pivotal play in the most important game this organization has played in at least 15 years. It was the main reason why in the ninth inning, once the game was well out of reach, the majority of the 49,000-plus fans at Yankee Stadium were chanting his last name, which Volpe said was “definitely number one” on his list of coolest moments. It restored the Yankees some level of dignity as they avoided getting swept out of the Fall Classic with an 11-4 blowout win over the Dodgers.

Indeed, if the Yankees pull off a miraculous comeback and become the first team to win the World Series after losing the first three games, Volpe’s blast will go down as the biggest turning point in the State of New York since the Battle of Saratoga. If the improbable happens — if the home run is going to be more than a fun little footnote to just another failed season — we’ll have plenty of time to rhapsodize about the local kid’s signature Yankee Moment. For now, though, I’d like to dig into the two other runs that Volpe scored in Game 4 and the events that led up to them, as they offer a window into the most important element he brings to the Yankees offense: his baserunning. Read the rest of this entry »

Scheduling a bullpen game in the World Series is, to some extent, outside Dave Roberts’ control. More than half of his useful starting pitchers are on the IL, so he has to do something. Game 4 isn’t the perfect spot for Johnny Wholestaff — the way MLB’s playoff format works, it’s the only game of the series that isn’t adjacent to an off day — but it’s also the only spot in a four-man rotation that’s guaranteed to only come up once.

The Dodgers’ manager was fortunate, however, in that by the time Game 4 rolled around, his team was already up 3-0 in the series. No team has ever overturned such a deficit in World Series play, and only once in baseball history has a team come back from 3-0 in any best-of-seven series. This we all knew going in. I was mildly surprised to learn that history is even less kind to clubs that spot their opponents the first three games of a Fall Classic: Before this season, teams with the opportunity to sweep a World Series had won Game 4 21 times in 24 attempts.

So Roberts entrusted Game 4 not just to his bullpen, but to his low-leverage guys: Ben Casparius, Daniel Hudson, Landon Knack, and Brent Honeywell. Sure enough, his team lost. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — When Freddie Freeman sprained his right ankle on September 26, the Dodgers had good reason to fear that his injury would be season-ending. Few could have envisioned that Freeman — who somehow managed to return from a six-week injury in a week, and to hobble through the National League Division Series and Championship Series — could play up to his usual high standard, let alone repeatedly etch his name in the record books. In Game 4 of the World Series on Tuesday night, the 35-year-old first baseman did so while providing a sense of déjà vu all over again. With his second two-run first-inning homer into Yankee Stadium’s short porch in as many nights, he put the Dodgers in a position to clinch a championship, though unlike Monday, they weren’t able to hold the Yankees down for nine innings, and lost 11-4.

Freeman’s fourth home run of this World Series came against Luis Gil and followed a one-out Mookie Betts double down the right field line. After Gil fell behind in the count 2-1, he put a belt-high slider on the outer edge of the plate. Freeman connected, launching a low, arcing drive 106.6 mph into the seats and temporarily sucking all the oxygen out of the Yankee Stadium fans as they faced the possibility of a sweep.

Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about and break down the lopsided first three games of the World Series: what went as expected, what was surprising, Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles, Freddie Freeman’s heroics, Shohei Ohtani’s injury, pivotal plays, Aaron Boone and Nestor Cortes, TV ratings, and much more, followed by (1:06:47) a brief, a not-about baseball voting PSA.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG playoff coverage
Link to Sterling call 1
Link to Sterling call 2
Link to Judge interview clip
Link to Stanton play
Link to Boone on the 2004 Red Sox
Link to Ben on Boone and Cortes
Link to Ben on team health
Link to Will Carroll on Ohtani
Link to Jeff Passan on Ohtani
Link to TV ratings info
Link to Langs slams stat
Link to Langs 3-0 stat
Link to Ice Cube video
Link to Fat Joe video
Link to Vote.gov

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“What if they made the whole pitching staff out of high-leverage relievers?” That line of thinking has infiltrated baseball over the past 15 years, and you can see why. The Dodgers built their team around it, and used it to perfection in the first three games of the World Series. When the Yankees weren’t dealing with three solid starters attacking the lineup in short bursts, they were facing an endless array of pitchers who sit in the upper 90s with venomous breaking balls. No wonder the Yankees only scored seven total runs across those three games.

In Game 4, the Dodgers asked another question: What if you made the whole pitching staff out of swingmen? Dave Roberts and the front office always planned on a bullpen game; they’ve been doing those all October. But this one was a wholly different animal than the efforts against the Padres and Mets, and the Yankees took advantage.

Want an example of how it was different? Ben Casparius drew the start, and Roberts gave him two innings, no questions asked. He was shaky as can be. Three walks, a 105-mph double off the top of the wall in dead center, and a few hard-hit balls besides; he spent the entirety of his two innings of work on the ropes, faced 10 batters, and was lucky to escape having only allowed one run. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Remember Mookie Betts? While much of the focus during the Dodgers’ postseason run has been on the inspiring determination — and sudden World Series heroics — of Freddie Freeman in the wake of his ankle injury, and now Shohei Ohtani’s status given his shoulder scare, the Los Angeles lineup’s other former MVP has put together an impressive October. Shaking free of a multiyear postseason slump, the 32-year-old right fielder has been the Dodgers’ top offensive performer thus far. In Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night, he made significant contributions both at the plate and in the field, helping the Dodgers to a 4-2 victory and a three-games-to-none series lead, and putting them within one win of their second championship since the team traded for him in February 2020.

Dave Roberts hasn’t forgotten Betts. “He’s one of the best players on the planet,” said the Dodgers’ manager after the win. “I’m really excited for the postseason that he’s had on both sides of the baseball.”

Through 14 games and 66 plate appearances, Betts is batting .291/.394/.582. His slugging percentage, four homers, and 159 wRC+ all lead the Dodgers, and his 14 RBI is tied with the Yankees’ Giancarlo Stanton and the Mets’ Mark Vientos for the lead among all hitters. On Monday, he went 1-for-4 with a walk and an RBI single while making four putouts in right field. In the box score, that line may look mundane, but if you saw the game unfold, his contributions couldn’t escape notice.

“I know it just looks like a regular baseball game, but it’s a lot of emotions, a lot of preparation,” said a drained Betts after the win. “It takes it out of you, so we’ve got to rest up and be ready to do it again.” Read the rest of this entry »