Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the White Sox walking Juan Soto to face Aaron Judge, how Judge’s season could’ve been even better, the world’s untapped baseball talent, Shohei Ohtani’s run at a 50-50 season, ways to discourage intentional walks, a proposal to mandate six-inning outings for starting pitchers, a changing of the guard atop the FanGraphs farm system rankings, the extraordinary defense of Austin Hedges, and the nature vs. nurture debate about MLB fathers and sons. Then (1:10:07) they meet major leaguers Daniel Robert, Yilber Diaz, and Michael Petersen, plus (1:34:35) several postscript updates.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Judge/Soto article 1
Link to Judge/Soto article 2
Link to Judge/Soto article 3
Link to Davy Andrews on the IBB
Link to Judge mechanical changes
Link to Ben/Sam on global talent
Link to Ohtani splits by month
Link to Ohtani pitching progress
Link to listener emails database
Link to six-inning-starts article
Link to tweet about six-inning starts
Link to would-be-disqualified starts
Link to Ben on bullpenning
Link to Ben on pitcher roster limits
Link to FG farm rankings
Link to Pipeline farm rankings
Link to Baez homer
Link to Trueblood on Hedges
Link to Hedges BP player card
Link to BP catcher defense leaderboard
Link to “framing chances” definition
Link to Hedges PitchCom article
Link to Ben on Hedges in 2015
Link to BP C defense since 2015
Link to Molina framing montage
Link to Yadi running-game graph
Link to Ben on framing improvements
Link to fathers/sons data
Link to LaRoche retrospective
Link to B-Ref new debuts
Link to Kenny Jackelen’s Twitter
Link to Robert article 1
Link to Robert article 2
Link to Diaz article 1
Link to Diaz article 2
Link to Diaz strawberries photo
Link to Petersen article 1
Link to Petersen article 2
Link to Petersen debut game log
Link to Petersen interview clip
Link to Petersen UK tweet
Link to MLBTR on Hill
Link to EW 1780 Stat Blast
Link to Hill on EW
Link to Hill/Anthony tweet
Link to Fitzgerald play
Link to Fitzgerald/Bonds stat
Link to Fitzgerald article 1
Link to Fitzgerald article 2
Link to Fitzgerald plays data
Link to RE charts
Link to Melvin clip
Link to Ben C. on the play
Link to Ben C. on bunt math
Link to Rob Mains on zombie bunts
Link to Rob on bunts again
Link to The Sandlot audio clip
Link to The Sandlot video clip
Link to Space Jam clip
Link to The Benchwarmers video clip
Link to 1955 newspaper clip
Link to Torgeson vs. Spahn
Link to Wade/Ward wiki
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

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12:02

Dan Szymborski: Thank you those in attendance for fulfilling your legally required duties to appear here.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s unreasonable for anyone

12:03

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit a lot better last two seasons, but in a limited role. But there’s certainly a good deal of risk

12:04

Dan Szymborski: but theres’ upside too. People forget that Robles was once one of the elite prospects and had a *very* solid rookie season

12:04

Dan Szymborski: But there’s downside too since he has like a low .600s OPS since COVID

Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Miller has improved on his 2023 rookie season with the Seattle Mariners. Especially notable are his ERA (3.46 versus last year’s 4.32), FIP (3.70 versus 3.98), and OPS against opposite-handed hitters (.685 OPS versus .917). At the same time, many of his numbers have been strikingly similar. When I spoke to the 25-year-old right-hander at the end of July — he’s since made two starts — his win-loss record and average fastball velocity were identical to last year’s marks, as were his FB% and HR/FB%. His strikeout rate differed by just a few percentage points.

I cited those similarities to the righty, then proceeded to ask him what differentiates this season’s version of Bryce Miller from last year’s.

———

Bryce Miller: “I think that type of stuff is very similar, but the lefty-righty splits are quite a bit different. Last year, lefties batted over .300 against me. This year, it’s around .215. I think the addition of the splitter has been big, and I’ve also been locating better. If you look at the heat maps from last year, a lot of the fastballs were in the middle of the plate. This year, I’ve gotten them [elevated] a little better for the most part. So getting the heaters up and the splitters down has helped me out a lot with the lefties. That’s really been the main thing.”

David Laurila: Why is the splitter so much better than the changeup you were throwing? Read the rest of this entry »

On Sunday evening, Camilo Doval stepped to the mound without his usual light show. He showed the range of his game right away – after striking out the first two batters he faced, he walked Greg Jones, who promptly stole both second and third. Then Nolan Jones ripped a scorching line drive to center for a triple, Elehuris Montero stroked a line drive single, and two runs had scored just like that. To make matters worse, this wasn’t even against the Rockies – it was against the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes.

It’s hard to wrap your head around Doval’s sudden fall from ace closer to minor leaguer. He debuted in the magical 2021 season, picked up closing duties at the tail end of that year, and looked like one of the best relievers in the sport almost immediately. In 2022 and ’23, he pitched to a 2.73 ERA and 2.87 FIP. He was wild at times, overpowering at others, and impossible to square up in every iteration. When you have a 100 mph cutter and a tight 90 mph slider to throw off of it, you don’t need much else. He was fifth in baseball in saves, ninth in reliever WAR, 10th in innings pitched among relievers; in other words, he was a one-man back-of-the-bullpen for the Giants.

One thing always bothered me about Doval, even when he was dominating the opposition for the last two years: His cutter doesn’t cut correctly. That sounds nonsensical, or at best like a weak nitpick. But here, take a look at his cutter as compared to Emmanuel Clase’s best-in-class offering, using our pitch-type splits:

The “cut” in a cutter refers to glove-side movement. A good cutter looks like a fastball out of the hand before the spin takes over; then it veers sharply away from the four-seam path that hitters have spent their whole lives tracking. It’s not just a matter of how differently shaped the cutter is from the rest of a given pitcher’s arsenal – just ask Mariano Rivera. Instead, it’s more about defying the brain patterns batters have built up over decades of playing baseball. That’s just not where a fastball should go, and so hitters either swing fruitlessly over it or, in the case of opposite-handed batters, end up breaking their bats when the pitch bores in on their hands.
Read the rest of this entry »

The other day, I wrote about Jake McCarthy’s BABIP, and touched on an assumption about which kinds of hitters are going to put up outlier numbers in that stat. McCarthy hits a lot of grounders, which generally produce a higher BABIP than fly balls (though they’re less productive by other metrics). He’s also left-handed and very fast, which means he ought to be able to beat out grounders for infield singles.

So let’s take a little gander at the infield hit rate leaderboard for qualified hitters. This is the percentage of groundballs a batter produces that turn into infield hits. Simple enough:

So yeah, Bellinger is primarily known for grinding hanging curveballs to make his bread, but in spite of his size, he is a left-handed fast guy. That tracks. Peña is a righty, but he’s very fast. His average home-to-first time is actually in the top 20 among all hitters — lefties and righties alike — this season. And because Peña hits so many grounders, he leads all batters in total infield hits with 24.

And then there’s Rhys Hoskins. Wait, what? Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how Jorge López has done since his release from the Mets, Juan Soto‘s underrated dominance, George Springer’s post-replay rage, whether the Rangers are a candidate for Angels-esque August waiver shenanigans, whether Dodgers pitchers are particularly prone to Tommy John surgeries, and the divisive value of Salvador Perez. Then (41:56) they welcome high-school student Bailey Hall, who won an award for the best poster presentation at SABR 52, for a guest Stat Blast about scoring after leadoff walks vs. leadoff singles, followed by (1:10:19) a postscript on recent team TJ totals.

Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Lopez EW episode
Link to Lopez ERA leaderboard
Link to team RP WAR
Link to Judge on Soto
Link to best post-Bonds seasons
Link to WAR through age 25
Link to Springer clip
Link to MLB.com on Springer
Link to BP piece on HBP replays
Link to Becker on the Rangers
Link to Rosenthal on the Rangers
Link to MLBTR on Ryan
Link to Dodgers thread
Link to TJ data
Link to Baumann on Perez
Link to Jaffe on Perez
Link to Perez Reddit post
Link to Ben on HoF framing
Link to Stat Blast song cover
Link to SABR 52 info
Link to SABR post on Bailey
Link to Bailey’s poster
Link to tweet about Bailey
Link to Tango on Bailey
Link to past research 1
Link to past research 2
Link to past research 3
Link to past research 4
Link to past research 5
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

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Thanks to the trade deadline, this is a quiet time of the year for transactions, but baseball’s injured list is always hopping, and Tuesday was sadly no exception. First came the announcement that Dodgers pitching prospect River Ryan, our 21st-ranked prospect on the Top 100, would require Tommy John surgery, ending his 2024 season, and at best keeping him out for the vast majority of 2025. Not to be left out of the UCL injury party, Jazz Chisholm Jr. injured his left elbow on a slide into home plate on Monday night. The exact severity of Chisholm’s injury is still unknown, but with the season rapidly reaching its conclusion, any significant time on the shelf could imperil his ability to help the Yankees in their playoff push this year.

Chisholm was easily the biggest addition the Yankees made at the deadline, a flexible offensive player who the team hoped would bring some emergency relief to an extremely top-heavy offense that has received an OPS in the mid-.600s from four positions (first base, second base, third base, and left field). And Chisholm was more than fulfilling that expectation, with seven home runs in 14 games on the back of a .316/.361/.702 slashline. As noted above, the full extent of his injury isn’t yet known, but in a tight divisional race with the Baltimore Orioles (and with a playoff bye at stake), every run is precious. The Yankees have had a curious amount of misfortune when it comes to the health of their deadline acquisitions in recent years; between Frankie Montas, Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, Andrew Benintendi, and Harrison Bader, you might get the idea that they mostly acquire medical bills in their trades. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite notching two wins over their last six games, the White Sox are flirting with history, and not the good kind. As of this morning, Chicago stands 63 games below .500, 42.5 games back in the AL Central, and on pace to finish 39-123. Out of compassion, I will refrain from reciting the record of the 1962 Mets, but the players from that team who are still with us are likely taking this time to get the champagne good and chilled. Hard as it may be to believe, the goal of this article is not to dunk on the White Sox. Instead, as we enter the home stretch of the season, I’d like to consider how they’ve affected the playoff picture.

The White Sox have played 25 of the other 29 teams in the league, and they have distributed to those fortunate franchises a net total of 63 victories in the same way that an elderly man on a park bench distributes bread to the legion of ravenous pigeons jockeying for position at his feet: indiscriminately. For a few weeks now, I’ve been wondering whether the landscape would look different if those 25 teams never had the good fortune of playing the White Sox. Whom have the White Sox helped or hurt the most? Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve made no secret of my longtime admiration for Rangers reliever Kirby Yates (formerly Braves reliever Kirby Yates and Padres reliever Kirby Yates), but what he’s doing now even surprised me.

Yates entered Tuesday night’s contest against the Boston Red Sox with an ERA of 1.04; that mark is second among big league relievers, behind only Emmanuel Clase (another favorite of mine). It’s also a career best for Yates, which is more surprising than it would be for most pitchers. Yates already has a season with a microscopic ERA on his CV: 2019, when he posted a 1.19 ERA in 60 2/3 innings, with a strikeout rate of 41.6% and a walk rate of 5.3%. Pitchers who produce even one season of that quality are vanishingly rare; pitchers who produce two are almost unheard of. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I cracked the PitchingBot black box open a tiny bit and asked it to show me the worst pitches of the year. It was for fun, mostly; I think there are some interesting data in there, but the main thing I learned was that the worst pitches are non-competitive balls. That’s always a tough concept to grasp, because the ones that stick with us are the hanging sliders and no-ride fastballs right down the pipe, the kind of pitch that we see and go, “Oh I could hit a home run on that.” Like this one:

That’s the worst pitch in baseball this year by one specific metric: the likelihood that PitchingBot assigns it of turning into a home run. I’ll show you some more of them in a moment, but first I thought I’d lay out how I did this so you can get a sense of how the model is reaching its conclusions.

Cameron Grove, the creator of PitchingBot, wrote about this idea back before he started working for the Guardians, and he was kind enough to nudge me in the right direction when it came to looking at pitches not just for the “worst,” but the ones that are the most crushable.
Read the rest of this entry »