JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Omar Vizquel

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

In the eyes of many, Omar Vizquel was the successor to Ozzie Smith when it came to dazzling defense. Thanks to the increased prevalence of highlight footage on the internet and cable shows such as ESPN’s SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight, the diminutive Venezuelan shortstop’s barehanded grabs, diving stops, and daily acrobatics were seen by far more viewers than Smith’s ever were. Vizquel made up for having a less-than-prototypically-strong arm with incredibly soft hands and a knack for advantageous positioning. Such was the perception of his prowess at the position that he took home 11 Gold Gloves, more than any shortstop this side of Smith, who won 13.

Vizquel’s offense was at least superficially akin to Smith’s: he was a singles-slapping switch-hitter in lineups full of bigger bats, and at his best, a capable table-setter who got on base often enough to score 80, 90, or even 100 runs in some seasons. His ability to move the runner over with a sacrifice bunt or a productive out delighted purists, and he could steal a base, too. While he lacked power, he dealt in volume, piling up more hits (2,877) than all but four shortstops, each in the Hall of Fame or heading there: Derek Jeter (3,465), Honus Wagner (3,420), Cal Ripken (3,184), and Robin Yount (3,142). During his 11-year run in Cleveland (1994-2004), he helped the Indians to six playoff appearances and two pennants.

To some, that makes Vizquel an easy call for the Hall of Fame. In his ballot debut last year, he received 37.0% of the vote, a level of support that doesn’t indicate a fast track to Cooperstown but more often than not suggests eventual enshrinement. These eyes aren’t so sure it’s merited. By WAR and JAWS, Vizquel’s case isn’t nearly as strong as it is on the traditional merits. His candidacy has already become a point of friction between old-school and new-school thinkers, and only promises to be more of the same, not unlike that of Jack Morris.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Omar Vizquel
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Omar Vizquel 45.6 26.8 36.2
Avg. HOF SS 67.0 42.9 55.0
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,877 80 .272/.336/.352 82
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

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2019 ZiPS Projections – Atlanta Braves

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves.

Batters
Sure, you can buy an All-Star, but making one of your own is so much more satisfying. After years of rebuilding, in which Freddie Freeman stood mostly alone in the offense, the Braves added Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuña, both legitimate stars who will be with the Braves well into the 2020s. Josh Donaldson was just about the perfect addition to the team — after all, you can pay almost anything for a one-year contract without singeing your fingers too badly. Sure, there’s risk with the former AL MVP given his age and recent injury history, but he won’t block Austin Riley and the Braves have the perfect Plan B in Johan Camargo, who may very well be a super-sub type for the team in 2019. Absent Atlanta giving a whole lot of money to Bryce Harper to possibly become the NL favorite, I’d personally prefer they just plunk Camargo out in left and not worry about Adam Duvall, whose limited window as a legitimate starter has likely closed. No doubt some will bemoan the loss of Nick Markakis, but the team was right to ride his first half heroics and move on after his .701 OPS second-half.

Pitchers
Let’s get the very minor bad news out of the way: ZiPS doesn’t see any of the Braves’ starting pitchers as likely to match up against a deGrom or a Kershaw or a Scherzer, not even Foltynewicz. But that’s very minor bad news, because even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true. In fact, The Braves may find themselves in the odd position of having too much pitching to sort through in Triple-A. A few will end up in the bullpen, of course, but Atlanta can go into the next few trade deadlines and offseasons with enough interesting pieces to make a competitive offer for any player another team is willing to trade.

Bench and Prospects
The offensive prospects aren’t quite as strong, but Riley looks like he’ll be a legit major leaguer in the not-too-distant future and Christian Pache has tremendous upside; the Braves would surely be happy if he matched the on-field contributions of his number one comp. The only real concern I have here is with the dearth of the kind of position player reinforcements that most teams try to stock at Triple-A, but there’s still plenty of time for Atlanta to get those minor-league signings in. Veterans like Lane Adams, Preston Tucker, or Xavier Avery, while unlikely to move the needle too far, are still handy to have around in a “break-glass-in-case-of-emergency” situation. I’d also like to see another arm or two in the bullpen; players like Sam Freeman are hardly bad pitchers, but the Braves are a legitimate contender, and I think they’re only a couple of lucky breaks with the pitching staff away from being in the conversation for the best team in the National League.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Freddie Freeman L 29 1B 149 552 89 164 39 3 26 90 78 127 8 3
Ozzie Albies B 22 2B 156 634 101 172 36 7 22 78 41 118 17 3
Ronald Acuña R 21 LF 140 550 88 152 29 5 30 81 54 165 25 11
Josh Donaldson R 33 3B 107 397 69 106 22 2 23 68 65 100 4 1
Ender Inciarte L 28 CF 153 609 87 173 28 6 9 54 45 86 23 12
Johan Camargo R 25 3B 143 491 62 128 30 3 16 68 42 117 1 1
Dansby Swanson R 25 SS 140 508 61 123 27 5 12 62 52 130 9 3
Austin Riley R 22 3B 123 472 61 116 23 3 19 64 36 155 1 1
Nick Markakis L 35 RF 144 553 64 153 33 1 9 72 60 85 1 1
Tyler Flowers R 33 C 87 273 28 64 12 0 8 35 28 84 0 0
Lucas Duda L 33 1B 103 339 39 77 18 0 18 56 38 112 1 0
Brian McCann L 35 C 89 298 37 69 9 1 11 45 32 63 0 1
Adam Duvall R 30 LF 139 473 60 110 27 2 20 82 34 134 4 3
Rio Ruiz L 25 3B 146 513 61 121 26 3 12 59 47 132 2 2
Cristian Pache R 20 CF 128 505 45 125 17 6 9 38 24 140 9 10
Charlie Culberson R 30 LF 111 330 38 79 16 2 8 36 19 84 4 3
Danny Santana B 28 CF 103 325 41 77 18 4 9 38 14 89 12 6
Rene Rivera R 35 C 61 173 14 38 7 0 6 24 10 58 0 0
Lane Adams R 29 CF 110 314 37 66 13 2 8 33 26 117 18 4
Ryan Flaherty L 32 3B 75 179 20 38 7 1 3 16 19 50 3 1
Pedro Florimon B 32 SS 100 267 30 55 11 3 5 25 22 100 5 3
Jonathan Morales R 24 C 93 321 30 70 13 1 3 26 16 60 1 3
Ryan LaMarre R 30 CF 89 266 26 60 12 1 4 23 17 88 6 3
Raffy Lopez L 31 C 83 265 30 57 11 1 8 35 24 93 1 0
Alex Jackson R 23 C 101 361 41 73 19 2 12 42 27 136 0 0
Tyler Marlette R 26 C 111 406 45 88 19 2 11 44 31 122 3 2
Preston Tucker L 28 LF 121 364 44 85 19 2 13 48 30 89 1 1
Phil Gosselin R 30 2B 112 303 34 70 15 2 4 26 22 71 1 2
Sean Kazmar R 34 SS 93 333 31 79 15 2 4 28 11 46 2 2
Travis Demeritte R 24 LF 125 451 55 90 20 5 16 51 47 183 5 4
Xavier Avery L 29 RF 95 309 37 64 13 2 8 29 36 135 10 5
Luis Marte R 25 SS 114 425 37 97 16 2 6 33 8 92 9 4
Carlos Franco R 27 1B 122 439 49 91 18 1 15 53 42 176 1 2
Ray-Patrick Didder R 24 SS 125 432 47 82 11 6 5 32 37 161 19 9

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Freddie Freeman .297 .389 .520 142 .223 .346 7.8 4 4.9 Will Clark
Ozzie Albies .271 .319 .454 104 .183 .304 5.6 9 4.3 Zoilo Versalles
Ronald Acuña .276 .344 .511 126 .235 .344 6.6 5 4.0 Frank Robinson
Josh Donaldson .267 .373 .506 133 .239 .303 7.0 2 3.9 Chipper Jones
Ender Inciarte .284 .335 .394 95 .110 .319 5.0 9 3.0 Del Unser
Johan Camargo .261 .322 .432 100 .171 .313 5.1 2 2.2 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Dansby Swanson .242 .313 .386 87 .144 .303 4.4 5 1.8 Glenn Hubbard
Austin Riley .246 .304 .428 94 .182 .326 4.6 2 1.7 Brook Jacoby
Nick Markakis .277 .348 .389 98 .112 .314 5.0 -2 1.0 Keith Hernandez
Tyler Flowers .234 .328 .366 87 .132 .309 4.2 -1 1.0 Tom Wilson
Lucas Duda .227 .315 .440 100 .212 .282 4.9 0 0.8 Graham Koonce
Brian McCann .232 .318 .379 86 .148 .259 4.2 -3 0.7 Dave Valle
Adam Duvall .233 .289 .425 88 .192 .282 4.3 3 0.7 Peter Camelo
Rio Ruiz .236 .300 .368 78 .133 .295 3.9 0 0.5 Casey Webster
Cristian Pache .248 .281 .358 70 .111 .326 3.4 6 0.3 Milton Bradley
Charlie Culberson .239 .284 .373 75 .133 .298 3.7 7 0.3 Marlin McPhail
Danny Santana .237 .270 .400 77 .163 .300 3.8 0 0.2 Randy Kutcher
Rene Rivera .220 .273 .364 69 .145 .294 3.4 0 0.2 Shawn Wooten
Lane Adams .210 .275 .341 64 .131 .307 3.5 1 0.1 Mark Doran
Ryan Flaherty .212 .294 .313 63 .101 .278 3.2 2 0.0 Rabbit Warstler
Pedro Florimon .206 .270 .326 59 .120 .309 2.9 2 -0.1 Kevin Stocker
Jonathan Morales .218 .262 .293 49 .075 .260 2.5 6 -0.1 Rogelio Arias
Ryan LaMarre .226 .279 .323 62 .098 .322 3.1 2 -0.1 Charles Thomas
Raffy Lopez .215 .280 .355 69 .140 .299 3.5 -3 -0.2 Chad Moeller
Alex Jackson .202 .271 .366 69 .163 .286 3.4 -5 -0.3 Todd Pratt
Tyler Marlette .217 .275 .355 68 .138 .282 3.3 -6 -0.3 Blake Barthol
Preston Tucker .234 .295 .404 85 .170 .275 4.2 -6 -0.4 Brad Bierley
Phil Gosselin .231 .284 .333 65 .102 .289 3.2 -2 -0.4 Rodney Nye
Sean Kazmar .237 .268 .330 60 .093 .265 3.1 -2 -0.5 Neifi Perez
Travis Demeritte .200 .276 .373 72 .173 .294 3.4 0 -0.6 James Sherrill
Xavier Avery .207 .290 .340 69 .133 .337 3.4 -1 -0.6 Damon Mashore
Luis Marte .228 .245 .318 50 .089 .278 2.7 2 -0.8 Tony Rodriguez
Carlos Franco .207 .277 .355 68 .148 .306 3.3 1 -0.9 Matt Padgett
Ray-Patrick Didder .190 .277 .278 50 .088 .289 2.6 -7 -1.4 Jose Castro

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Kevin Gausman R 28 11 9 3.94 30 30 173.7 171 76 22 50 153
Mike Foltynewicz R 27 12 10 3.93 30 30 167.3 153 73 21 63 172
Sean Newcomb L 26 11 9 4.28 30 29 153.7 137 73 19 73 150
Touki Toussaint R 23 10 9 4.17 30 29 153.3 142 71 15 83 156
Mike Soroka R 21 7 5 3.56 19 19 101.0 100 40 9 27 83
Bryse Wilson R 21 8 7 4.16 28 25 127.7 127 59 15 49 119
Julio Teheran R 28 9 9 4.54 30 30 164.7 152 83 27 70 143
Kyle Wright R 23 9 9 4.39 32 25 137.3 140 67 14 65 115
Luiz Gohara L 22 6 5 4.28 26 20 103.0 100 49 13 40 100
Kolby Allard L 21 7 7 4.37 25 23 125.7 135 61 14 48 96
Brad Brach R 33 4 3 3.41 63 0 63.3 54 24 5 26 65
Dan Winkler R 29 2 1 3.09 64 0 55.3 48 19 4 19 61
A.J. Minter L 25 4 2 3.30 61 0 57.3 50 21 5 22 65
Max Fried L 25 7 7 4.37 29 22 111.3 105 54 12 63 111
Joey Wentz L 21 5 4 4.19 21 21 86.0 83 40 6 48 74
Anibal Sanchez R 35 6 7 4.66 25 22 119.7 119 62 21 40 117
Wes Parsons R 26 6 6 4.47 25 18 106.7 111 53 13 42 84
Luke Jackson R 27 3 2 3.62 49 2 64.7 57 26 4 35 69
Ian Anderson R 21 5 5 4.61 21 21 105.3 105 54 14 53 96
Darren O’Day R 36 2 1 3.16 40 0 37.0 29 13 4 13 45
Corbin Clouse L 24 5 4 3.84 46 2 61.0 53 26 4 37 67
Arodys Vizcaino R 28 3 2 3.50 47 0 43.7 37 17 4 19 47
Thomas Burrows L 24 5 4 3.88 46 0 65.0 55 28 3 47 70
Brandon McCarthy R 35 4 5 4.54 16 14 75.3 84 38 12 21 56
Miguel Socolovich R 32 5 4 3.98 40 2 54.3 54 24 6 16 47
Shane Carle R 27 3 3 4.06 57 0 64.3 65 29 6 25 46
Sam Freeman L 32 4 3 4.10 59 0 52.7 46 24 4 35 56
Jesse Biddle L 27 4 3 4.19 58 0 62.3 58 29 7 31 62
Jason Hursh R 27 4 4 4.27 52 1 65.3 65 31 4 37 50
Grant Dayton L 31 2 2 3.82 34 0 35.3 31 15 5 13 41
Chad Bell L 30 4 5 4.94 32 9 82.0 88 45 12 35 69
Fernando Salas R 34 4 4 4.35 53 0 51.7 53 25 8 16 47
Chad Sobotka R 25 4 4 4.31 54 0 62.7 54 30 6 44 70
Peter Moylan R 40 1 1 4.00 47 0 36.0 34 16 3 16 31
Kyle Muller L 21 6 7 5.10 23 23 113.0 122 64 16 58 89
Chase Whitley R 30 2 2 4.71 25 3 42.0 44 22 7 13 33
Josh Ravin R 31 2 2 4.18 29 0 32.3 26 15 4 19 42
Aaron Blair R 27 7 9 5.18 25 25 125.0 129 72 18 65 104
Jonny Venters L 34 3 3 4.35 45 0 31.0 29 15 2 21 26
Jose Al. Ramirez R 29 3 3 4.72 53 0 53.3 49 28 7 32 53
David Peterson R 29 2 2 4.70 35 0 46.0 51 24 5 17 26
Michael Mader L 25 5 7 5.36 31 16 95.7 104 57 13 60 70
Jacob Webb R 25 3 4 4.97 50 0 54.3 50 30 8 36 61
Patrick Weigel R 24 2 3 5.57 13 12 51.7 57 32 9 28 38
Rex Brothers L 31 4 5 5.23 48 0 41.3 35 24 3 44 50
Huascar Ynoa R 21 8 11 5.53 23 23 99.3 103 61 13 75 89
Josh Graham R 25 5 7 5.68 46 0 58.7 60 37 9 44 54

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Kevin Gausman 734 7.93 2.59 1.14 .296 109 92 3.98 2.9 Jake Westbrook
Mike Foltynewicz 715 9.25 3.39 1.13 .293 106 94 4.00 2.5 Ramon Martinez
Sean Newcomb 661 8.79 4.28 1.11 .282 101 99 4.25 2.0 Vinegar Bend Mizell
Touki Toussaint 683 9.16 4.87 0.88 .302 100 100 4.17 2.0 Dick Ruthven
Mike Soroka 427 7.40 2.41 0.80 .299 117 86 3.59 1.9 Early Wynn
Bryse Wilson 557 8.39 3.45 1.06 .305 100 100 4.13 1.6 Mike LaCoss
Julio Teheran 712 7.82 3.83 1.48 .269 92 109 4.97 1.4 Al Nipper
Kyle Wright 614 7.54 4.26 0.92 .305 95 105 4.37 1.4 Charlie Haeger
Luiz Gohara 447 8.74 3.50 1.14 .301 100 100 4.16 1.3 Tom McGraw
Kolby Allard 557 6.88 3.44 1.00 .309 95 105 4.38 1.3 Jeff Mutis
Brad Brach 266 9.24 3.69 0.71 .288 126 79 3.36 1.2 Jim Hughes
Dan Winkler 233 9.92 3.09 0.65 .303 135 74 3.13 1.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
A.J. Minter 242 10.20 3.45 0.78 .304 131 77 3.27 1.1 Shane Rawley
Max Fried 501 8.97 5.09 0.97 .302 95 105 4.44 1.1 Ken Chase
Joey Wentz 388 7.74 5.02 0.63 .302 100 100 4.18 1.1 Jerry Reuss
Anibal Sanchez 513 8.80 3.01 1.58 .295 92 108 4.55 1.0 Rick Helling
Wes Parsons 471 7.09 3.54 1.10 .301 93 107 4.51 1.0 Bill Swift
Luke Jackson 286 9.60 4.87 0.56 .305 119 84 3.63 1.0 Clay Bryant
Ian Anderson 474 8.20 4.53 1.20 .299 90 111 4.76 0.8 Matt Clement
Darren O’Day 154 10.95 3.16 0.97 .281 136 73 3.42 0.8 Curt Leskanic
Corbin Clouse 272 9.89 5.46 0.59 .304 109 92 3.77 0.7 Grant Jackson
Arodys Vizcaino 185 9.69 3.92 0.82 .289 119 84 3.56 0.7 John Riedling
Thomas Burrows 297 9.69 6.51 0.42 .301 108 93 3.95 0.6 Luke Walker
Brandon McCarthy 327 6.69 2.51 1.43 .305 92 109 4.65 0.6 Flint Rhem
Miguel Socolovich 231 7.79 2.65 0.99 .300 105 95 3.85 0.5 Bobby Tiefenauer
Shane Carle 281 6.44 3.50 0.84 .294 103 97 4.24 0.5 Stan Thomas
Sam Freeman 239 9.57 5.98 0.68 .298 105 95 4.18 0.5 Marshall Bridges
Jesse Biddle 275 8.95 4.48 1.01 .297 100 100 4.26 0.4 Marcelino Lopez
Jason Hursh 297 6.89 5.10 0.55 .302 98 102 4.30 0.4 Hal Reniff
Grant Dayton 149 10.44 3.31 1.27 .292 109 92 3.86 0.4 Jim Poole
Chad Bell 367 7.57 3.84 1.32 .308 87 115 4.80 0.3 Trever Miller
Fernando Salas 221 8.19 2.79 1.39 .302 99 101 4.33 0.3 A.J. Sager
Chad Sobotka 285 10.05 6.32 0.86 .296 97 103 4.41 0.3 Clay Bryant
Peter Moylan 157 7.75 4.00 0.75 .295 104 96 4.01 0.3 Ted Abernathy
Kyle Muller 518 7.09 4.62 1.27 .305 82 122 5.14 0.3 Mike Wodnicki
Chase Whitley 182 7.07 2.79 1.50 .291 91 110 4.82 0.2 Nate Snell
Josh Ravin 142 11.69 5.29 1.11 .293 100 100 4.11 0.2 Dwayne Henry
Aaron Blair 567 7.49 4.68 1.30 .298 80 124 5.09 0.2 Elvin Nina
Jonny Venters 142 7.55 6.10 0.58 .293 96 104 4.44 0.1 Marshall Bridges
Jose Al. Ramirez 242 8.94 5.40 1.18 .290 91 110 4.95 0.1 Jake Robbins
David Peterson 204 5.09 3.33 0.98 .299 89 113 4.67 0.0 Jim Todd
Michael Mader 450 6.59 5.64 1.22 .302 78 129 5.52 -0.1 Chris Short
Jacob Webb 249 10.10 5.96 1.33 .298 84 119 4.97 -0.1 Marc Pisciotta
Patrick Weigel 239 6.62 4.88 1.57 .298 75 134 5.74 -0.1 Jake Joseph
Rex Brothers 202 10.89 9.58 0.65 .311 80 125 5.01 -0.2 Arnold Earley
Huascar Ynoa 476 8.06 6.80 1.18 .308 75 133 5.54 -0.2 Randy Nosek
Josh Graham 280 8.28 6.75 1.38 .302 73 136 5.76 -0.6 Darin Moore

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


The Human Side of the Cubs’ Addison Russell Decision

I’d like to ask your permission to depart from my normal subject. Usually, I tell you what the law says on a given matter. It may not seem like it, but the law doesn’t really account for what I think. Some of what I tell you is what I think is right, and some of the law I tell you about is the sort of thing that, were I able, I would strike as immoral, or stupid, or both. But the law generally doesn’t care what Sheryl Ring thinks of it, and while I do, in some of my cases, advocate for changes in the law, I’m not going to do that here.

This time, with your permission, I’m going to talk about feelings. My feelings. About why I love baseball. About why I have always loved baseball. And about how it impacts me when baseball doesn’t quite love me back. This piece is about the human cost of major league baseball teams employing alleged domestic abusers. This isn’t about policy; what MLB should do about the issue, I will leave for another day. This is about my stakes.

At its best, baseball can transport us to the place of hopes and dreams, where impossibly high barriers no longer seem insurmountable and mortal humans become giants. Baseball writing can do much the same, done well. Earlier this year, in a piece that still resonates with me, Meg Rowley said this:

Communities are home to all kinds of folks engaged in different bits of sin and kindness, all experiencing different stakes. We’re knit together by our sins and our kindnesses, sometimes quite uncomfortably. One such sin is the everyday kind, the sort of casual meanness and lack of care we all wade through all the time. It’s a smaller kind, but we still find ourselves altered by it.

It’s a passage I’ve found myself reflecting on this week after the Cubs made the decision to tender troubled and suspended shortstop Addison Russell a contract; earlier in the offseason, it seemed as if Russell wouldn’t be back with the team in 2019. Following the decision, both Russell and the Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein released statements to explain their decisions. To define the path forward. Russell spoke of being responsible for his actions, using words like “therapy” and “progress.” Epstein spoke of accountability, and partnership, with Russell and organizations committed to domestic violence prevention. They spoke of the future. But the discussion left me unsettled. And as I thought about it, I came back to Meg’s piece.

That was the everyday sin, the sin of disrespect and unfeeling. It is what makes our community less than perfect and less than perfectly welcoming. It is troubling, this lack of care.

I fell in love with baseball when I was a little girl. But back then, it wasn’t from watching games. I didn’t watch my first baseball game until the Yankees’ short-lived 1995 playoff run. The next year was when I came out to my mother for the first time. My mother didn’t want a trans daughter, and so she hid me away. I became the family secret, kept in my room for days at a time and brought out at night, after my sisters were asleep, for my mother to try the latest “de-transing” technique she had learned. Sometimes they were physical. Sometimes they were worse. She’d hit me, or have my father hold me down whilst she held a towel over my head and poured vinegar on it – yes, that is what we now call “waterboarding.” She chose vinegar because the fumes made it hard to breathe. One of my mother’s favorite games was to have my father hit me with a belt. But not by starting off that way; that wasn’t her style. She would hold me down at the kitchen table, and start by hitting the table with the belt. And then again, a little closer. Again, a little closer. Again, a little closer. I’d flinch, each time, as the belt drew closer, until the impact finally came.

Afterwards, confined to my room again in the early hours of the morning, my father would sneak in after my mother was sleeping. He’d regale me with stories about the game the Yankees had played the previous day, telling me about pitcher’s duels and mammoth home runs. And he’d always end the same way: “Don’t tell your mother.”

I became a Yankees fan because of my father – because of what those stories did for me. As the years passed, my father’s stories became my lifeline. He would, on occasion, talk my mother into letting me watch a baseball game on television. Usually, he would slip me box scores without her knowing, or leave the newspaper’s baseball pages underneath my pillow. And when he persuaded my mother to let me go outside, I would spend hours with a yard-sale softball bat and a tennis ball, throwing up a ball and hitting it, over and over again, pretending I was the first woman on the Yankees.

I started to write my own stories and tell them to myself, about players I’d read about in the newspaper clippings my father left for me. When I was 13, my father arranged for me to help Bob Socci, the play-by-play announcer for the local minor league team, the Frederick Keys (the Orioles’ High-A affiliate), with his radio broadcast. Bob let me announce a couple of innings, which was the high point of my childhood. (My father convinced my mother to allow this by agreeing that my birthday would thereafter go unacknowledged.) I announced the game like it was another of my stories. I announced that game over and over to myself in the months that followed.

When I was 16, broken from years of abuse, I became actively suicidal. I went to my mother and begged her for help. She told me she hoped I did kill myself, because then she would be rid of her family shame. And then she told me to be sure I left no marks on my body, because it would make her look bad at my funeral. She recommended that I hang myself, because she could hide the marks with a collared shirt. It was in that moment that I realized that if I was going to be saved, I would have to save myself. I did it by telling myself a different baseball story every day, over and over. I made teams, spent hours projecting fictional triple-slash lines and standings, doing all the math by hand. That was my life between the ages of 8 and 16, when I started college. There was no school, there was no outside world. But there were the stories.

So when the Yankees acquired Aroldis Chapmanwho was the first player suspended under baseball’s domestic violence policy — when they acquired him not once, but twice, it felt, oddly, like a personal betrayal. It felt, as Meg so aptly stated when describing our community’s sins, like disrespect and unfeeling. I felt unwelcome. The Yankees had gone from an escape from my pain to a reminder of the same. It felt as if the Yankees didn’t care about that pain, or the pain of other survivors. I don’t mean to compare myself to Chapman’s victim, nor to claim that our experiences, what we went through, are the same. But I do know what it’s like to have a member of your family inflict physical pain. I know what it’s like to have a family member try to kill you, on purpose. I know what it’s like to be smaller, weaker, unable to fight back except by simply staying alive. I know what it’s like to want to end it all, and have a family member hate you so completely that she openly wished for you to die.

There are an untold number of Cubs fans who understand the pain I’m talking about. It’s the type of pain that only comes from having a spouse, a domestic partner, a loved one, a parent, treat you like you are unworthy of love and deserve nothing, nothing but that pain and hardship. There’s something Melisa Reidy-Russell, Addison Russell’s ex-wife, wrote on her Instagram that captures this feeling.

But, somehow he could ALWAYS find a way to make me feel like it happened because of me, or because I wasn’t listening to him. It was ALWAYS my fault – You don’t realize it, but its a sick mind game that you get sucked into – All your source of happiness somehow is controlled by that one person, depending on how they decide to treat you on a daily basis. Feeling the need of affirmation from him became the main source of how I felt happiness. Always trying to please him to show him I was good enough, strong enough, worthy enough… it consumed me & before I realized it, I was so far gone from the person I used to be.

She might as well have been describing how I felt as a little girl about my mother. It is the feeling an abuser creates in their victim. Bruises heal, and scars fade. The emotional pain can last a lifetime. And, like an old wound that aches when it rains, it crops up every so often. The Cubs’ decision to retain Russell did that for me.

It’s easy to forget sometimes, but there’s a human side to baseball. Not just that players are human beings – they are, of course – but also that we, the fans, are human. We don’t watch baseball because we have to. We watch baseball because it brings us joy. It brings us happiness. It mimics life, yes, but it’s also an escape from that life. Baseball doesn’t owe Addison Russell a job. But it does owe us, the fans, a game that takes us away from our pain and into a better world, one where everything is possible, even 100-mile per hour fastballs and frisbee sliders. Keeping Addison Russell elevates the push to create the perfect baseball team over the perfect baseball experience.

When I was a little girl, baseball loved me when no one else did. For that, I will forever love baseball back. But I wonder sometimes if baseball still loves me. It’s a difficult feeling. It’s a hard question to ask. I’d like to be able to stop asking it. Russell and Chapman, Roberto Osuna and Derek Norris – they remove me from the stories. They turn the stories dark, and remind me of the monsters that can people them. I’d like to have my stories back. But more than that, I’d like to have baseball think my stories matter.


Effectively Wild Episode 1305: Corbin McCarthy

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Willians Astudillo’s Venezuelan Winter League MVP chances, the latest scuttlebutt about banning the shift (and why it reflects the right impulse but the wrong solution), and the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin signing, the suddenly scary NL East, and the offseason market so far. Then (25:44) they bring on just-retired, 13-year major-league pitcher Brandon McCarthy to talk about his transition to civilian life, a hug from Frank Thomas, the pace of play, his (and players’) opinions on the shift, stats, technology, and player reinventions, his interest in broadcasting and thoughts on tweeting, watching his former team in the World Series, the players’ economic predicament, baseball’s youth movement, why fastballs are faster, the demise of the starter, clubhouse leadership, the up-and-coming Braves, framing and Tyler Flowers, dealing with politics and bad behavior in baseball, preventing pitchers from getting hit in the head, and more.

Audio intro: Someone Still Loves You Boris Yeltsin, "Banned (By the Man)"
Audio interstitial: Trans-Siberian Orchestra, "Christmas Eve/Sarajevo 12/24"
Audio outro: R.E.M., "Exhuming McCarthy"

Link to Jayson Stark on the shift
Link to Jeff on the shift
Link to Ben on the shift in 2015
Link to Ben on moving the mound back
Link to Ben on Flowers

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Cardinals Bet Big on 2019 with Paul Goldschmidt Trade

After missing the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be pushing some chips into the pot for next season by trading for Paul Goldschmidt. Derrick Goold reported the sides were closing in on a deal, while Jon Heyman first reported the deal as done. The Diamondbacks appear to be the first to report their return. Here’s the trade.

Cardinals Get:

  • Paul Goldschmidt

Diamondbacks Get:

We probably don’t need to talk a ton about Goldschmidt. He’s arguably been the best player in the National League since 2013, with a .301/.406/.541 hitting line good for a 149 wRC+ and 33 wins above replacement. Over the last three years, he’s put up a 140 wRC+ and five wins per season, and last year was no different. He struck out an unusually high amount the first two months of the season and had a terrible May (46 wRC+), but boasted a strong recovery on his way to typically excellent numbers. There’s nothing fluky in his Statcast numbers. He’s one of the top 10 hitters in baseball, and going into his age-31 season, he’s projected to be one of the top 15 hitters in baseball again. Steamer projects Golschmidt for 4.1 WAR while ZiPS puts him at 3.7. It’s pretty safe to say he’s a four-win player, which even with the higher expectations of offense at first base, makes him one of the top 25 or so players in the game, and the new best player on the Cardinals. Read the rest of this entry »


Banning the Shift Is a Solution in Search of a Problem

One of the first things Rob Manfred did after becoming MLB commissioner was talk about his idea of limiting or outright banning the shift. The shift has only become increasingly popular! Here is one proxy measure, courtesy of our own leaderboards. This shows the percentage of time there was some kind of shifted alignment in the field when a batted ball was hit in play:

Defenders move around all the time. Defenders move around more than ever. Different places categorize different alignments differently, and it’s not clear where you draw the line between shift and no shift, but the exact definition doesn’t really matter. Shifts are way up, compared to ten years ago. Shifts are way up, compared to five years ago. It’s impossible to watch baseball and not notice, unless you’ve only started watching baseball very recently.

Back then, killing the shift was only an idea. Ideas, for the most part, are harmless. There’s nothing wrong with a thought exercise. But now this is all back in the news. I’ll excerpt a section from an article just written by Jayson Stark:

Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Andruw Jones

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. It was initially adapted from The Cooperstown Casebook, published in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books, and then revised for SI.com last year. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

It happened so quickly. Freshly anointed the game’s top prospect by Baseball America in the spring of 1996, the soon-to-be-19-year-old Andruw Jones was sent to play for the Durham Bulls, the Braves’ Hi-A affiliate. By mid-August, he blazed through the Carolina League, the Double-A Southern League, and the Triple-A International League, and debuted for the defending world champion Braves. By October 20, with just 31 regular season games under his belt, he was a household name, not only the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game — breaking Mickey Mantle’s record — but doing so twice at Yankee Stadium.

Jones was no flash in the pan. The Braves didn’t win the 1996 World Series, and he didn’t win the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year award, but along with Chipper Jones (no relation) and the big three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, he became a pillar of a franchise that won a remarkable 14 NL East titles from 1991-2005 (all but the 1994 strike season). From 1998-2007, Jones won 10 straight Gold Gloves, more than any center fielder except Willie Mays.

By the end of 2006, Jones had tallied 342 homers and 1,556 hits. He looked bound for a berth in Cooperstown, but after a subpar final season in Atlanta and a departure for Los Angeles in free agency, he fell apart so completely that the Dodgers bought out his contract, a rarity in baseball. He spent the next four years with three different teams before heading to Japan at age 35, and while he hoped for a return to the majors, he couldn’t find a deal to his liking after either the 2014 or 2015 seasons. He retired before his 39th birthday, and thanks to his rapid descent, barely survived his first year on the Hall of Fame ballot.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Andruw Jones
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Andruw Jones 62.8 46.5 54.7
Avg. HOF CF 71.2 44.6 57.9
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
1,933 434 .254/.337/.486 111
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat: 12/5/18

12:24

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from the ATL. Head to fangraphs.com/prospects for our latest content, including the NL Central lists wrapping up this week with the NL East coming up next. Podcast going up later today

12:24

Jake Jortles: How bad was that Segura trade for the Mariners?  Seemed pretty terrible from here.

12:26

Kiley McDaniel: The Paxton deal was on the lower end of fine. This deal was maybe a little below that, in part because the market for SS’s isn’t large, there was guaranteed money, everyone knew he didn’t get along with Dee Gordon and SEA was aggressively dumping guaranteed money. Luckily they found a match of another team trying to dump money nobody wanted (Carlos Santana) that also had an MLB-ready everyday shortstop.

12:27

Kiley McDaniel: And by fine I mean the cold, economic asset value range–the Paxton deal was $35-50M in value for like $30-40M in value–where trades generally, in a vacuum tend to match up pretty well. The Segura deal had extenuating circumstances

12:27

Lilith: Is it likely that Bobby Witt Jr is going to fall in the draft due to his age and contact issues?

12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Fall would be relative to where he is now and everyone know his age now, so that’s not an issue in terms of where he’s headed. He’ll probably slide up a bit (we cover this in the podcast that’s coming out today) as he performed well at Jupiter and with Team USA, answering some of those contact questions.

Read the rest of this entry »


Reds Prospect TJ Friedl Came Out of Nowhere (Sort Of)

Cincinnati’s 2018 Minor League Hitter of the Year isn’t a slugger, nor is he among the club’s higher-profile prospects. That’s not to say TJ Friedl won’t be roaming the Reds’ outfield in the not-too-distant future. Blessed with a smooth left-handed stroke and plus-plus wheels, he is — according to our own Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel — “almost a lock to hang around the big leagues for at least a few years in some role.”

His background is unlike that of most players who reach the doorstep, let alone get invited inside. Friedl entered pro ball in 2016 as a non-drafted free agent out of the University of Nevada. More on that in moment.

At 5-foot-10 and 170 pounds, the 23-year-old Friedl looks the part of a table-setter, and the numbers match the image. In a 2018 season split evenly between Hi-A Daytona and Double-A Pensacola, the speedster slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs and 30 stolen bases.

His top-of-the-order-friendly OBP was fueled by a change that occurred shortly before his 2017 campaign ended prematurely due to injury. Wanting to recognize pitches earlier, he tweaked his timing mechanism. Read the rest of this entry »


2019 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians.

Batters
Mind the gap! One wouldn’t think of the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians as having similar front offices or philosophies, but they ended up in a similar place when it came to their offenses, with each boasting a of couple MVP-types who carried a disproportionately large portion of the load. Now, the Indians don’t have a replacement level Ian Desmond in the lineup, and the lesser lights don’t cost quite as much, but it still leaves Cleveland with a fairly unbalanced offense. The outfield is the biggest problem, with Michael Brantley, who did not receive a qualifying offer, still possessing the third-best batter projection on the team. While Cleveland’s still good enough otherwise that they can win the Central without much of a struggle — even if they trade a starting pitcher and go into the season with their existing outfield — it’s not ideal.

Pitchers
ZiPS really, really likes Shane Bieber. It likes him to such a degree that when I saw the nearly four-WAR projection, I fired up his profile page and checked the Steamer projection to make sure I hadn’t accidentally broken something. Like the time I initially projected Jose Molina to have a 1.200 batting average. I talked more about this in Cleveland’s Elegy for ’18 just a few days ago, but it’s understandable why the Indians are willing to talk pitcher trades. The team is still hopeful about Danny Salazar and while I can’t get in their brains, I suspect they feel the difference between Danny Salazar (or the other fallback options) and Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer is smaller than the difference between nothing and the prospects they could get in return. While I would’ve preferred the team to at least give Brantley a qualifying offer and pinch pennies a few years down the road, one can at least understand their thinking.
Read the rest of this entry »