There’s a Downside to the Opener

The 2018 season brought with it a number of unexpected developments. The Braves won their division! The Athletics were good! Max Muncy hit 35 home runs! But those sorts of developments are why we watch baseball: the unexpected and the fun. There was another development in the 2018 season, though: the return of the opener, a baseball strategy that isn’t novel, but had mostly fallen out of fashion. It started with Tampa Bay and Sergio Romo, then spread through the rest of the league. Even teams like the Dodgers, who always seem to have more competent starting pitchers than available rotation spots, employed the strategy. The Athletics even used an opener for their playoff game against the Yankees, though there it was borne more from necessity.

The baseball logic for the opener is pretty straightforward. We know that pitchers, especially starting pitchers, face a times-through-the-order penalty. In general, the more times a hitter faces the same pitcher in a game, the worse the results will be for the pitcher and the better the results will be for the hitter. This makes intuitive sense. Pitchers get tired; batters adjust. Pitchers make more mistakes when they get tired, and hitters gather more data the more they see of a pitcher’s repertoire. An opener can help mitigate that. Having a reliever, especially one with a handedness advantage, face the top of the order in the first inning means that the pitcher who comes in afterwards won’t face that third-time-through-the-order penalty – at least, in theory. A pitcher who begins his night by facing the middle of a team’s order instead of the top can go five innings and face the top of the order only once – again, in theory.

But there’s a part of the opener we really haven’t explored yet – and it’s one the always-thoughtful Zack Greinke discussed with Steve Miller earlier this year.

“[The opener is] really smart, but it’s also really bad for baseball,” Arizona starter Zack Greinke says. “It’s just a sideshow. There’s always ways to get a little advantage, but the main problem I have with it is you do it that way, then you’ll end up never paying any player what he’s worth because you’re not going to have guys starting, you’re not going to have guys throwing innings.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 12/19/18

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Nationals list coming soon, I would guess tomorrow with the Mets and Phillies both being worked on right now, but may be held until post Christmas. Sounds like AL East will come next.

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Also the winter meetings pushed back the draft list update but that’s also basically done and coming soon and I think we’re recording a podcast in the next 24-48 hours

12:13

Kiley McDaniel: Now to your questions

12:14

Lilith: Who from the Reds system are you most excited to see break out next year who might not be a well known prospect (yet)?

12:16

Kiley McDaniel: There’s the list. Some higher variance guys to keep an eye on would be the top righties from the last draft class (Josiah Gray moreso than Lyon Richardson), SS Jose Garcia, RF Danny Lantigua, RHP James Marinan, 2B Cash Case

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JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: Barry Bonds

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2013 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

If Roger Clemens has a reasonable claim as the greatest pitcher of all time, then the same goes for Barry Bonds as the greatest position player. Babe Ruth played in a time before integration, and Ted Williams bridged the pre- and post-integration eras, but while both were dominant at the plate, neither was much to write home about on the base paths or in the field. Bonds’ godfather, Willie Mays, was a big plus in both of those areas, but he didn’t dominate opposing pitchers to the same extent. Bonds used his blend of speed, power, and surgical precision in the strike zone to outdo them all. He set the single-season home run record with 73 in 2001 and the all-time home run record with 762, reached base more often than any player this side of Pete Rose, and won a record seven MVP awards along the way.

Despite his claim to greatness, Bonds may have inspired more fear and loathing than any ballplayer in modern history. Fear because opposing pitchers and managers simply refused to engage him at his peak, intentionally walking him a record 688 times — once with the bases loaded — and giving him a free pass a total of 2,558 times, also a record. Loathing because even as a young player, he rubbed teammates and media the wrong way and approached the game with a chip on his shoulder because of the way his father, three-time All-Star Bobby Bonds, had been driven from the game due to alcoholism.

As he aged, media and fans turned against Bonds once evidence — most of it illegally leaked to the press by anonymous sources — mounted that he had used performance-enhancing drugs during the latter part of his career. With his name in the headlines more regarding his legal situation than his on-field exploits, his pursuit and eclipse of Hank Aaron’s 33-year-old home run record turned into a joyless drag, and he disappeared from the majors soon after breaking the record in 2007 despite ranking among the game’s most dangerous hitters even at age 43. Not until 2014 did he even debut as a spring training guest instructor for the Giants. The reversal of his felony obstruction of justice conviction in April 2015 freed him of legal hassles, and he spent the 2016 season as the Marlins’ hitting coach, though he was dismissed at season’s end.

Bonds is hardly alone among Hall of Fame candidates with links to PEDs. As with Clemens, the support he has received during his first six election cycles has been far short of unanimous, but significantly stronger than the showings of Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Rafael Palmeiro, either in their ballot debuts or since. Debuting at 36.2% in 2013, Bonds spun his wheels for two years before climbing to 44.3% in 2016 and 53.8% in 2017 thanks to a confluence of factors. In the wake of both Bonds and Clemens crossing the historically significant 50% threshold, the Hall — which in 2014 unilaterally truncated candidacies from 15 years to 10 so as to curtail debate over the PED-linked ones — made its strongest statement yet that it would like to avoid honoring them in the form of a plea to voters from vice chairman Joe Morgan not to honor players connected to steroids. The letter was not well received by voters, but Bonds gained just 2.6 percentage points. Like Clemens, he needs to recapture his momentum to have a shot at reaching 75% by the time his eligibility runs out in 2022.

2019 BBWAA Candidate: Barry Bonds
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Barry Bonds 162.8 72.7 117.8
Avg. HOF LF 65.4 41.6 53.5
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,935 762 .298/.444/.607 182
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

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Thomas Pannone Built a Crescendo, Became a Blue Jay

When Thomas Pannone was featured here in April 2017, I wrote that he was “quietly emerging as a legitimate pitching prospect.” Playing for Cleveland’s High-A affiliate at the time, the Rhode Island-born southpaw hadn’t allowed an earned run in his last 38 innings. Amid negligible fanfare, Pannone was on a roll.

His address and level of notoriety have since changed. Sent to Toronto in the 2017 trade-deadline deal that delivered Joe Smith to Northeast Ohio, Pannone proceeded to test positive for a performance-enhancing substance, prompting a suspension that kept him out of action until this past June. He flew through the minors upon his return. Called up in August, Pannone appeared in 12 games for the Blue Jays— six as a starter — and logged a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings. He picked up four wins, to boot.

As for punch outs, while they aren’t particularly prominent in Pannone’s resume, he did manage to send 29 batters back to the dugout as an official scorer entered a K into a scoresheet. Kevin Kiermaier — the first player to step into the box against him — went down looking on a hook. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Giants Baseball Systems Application Developer Positions

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Application Developer, Baseball Systems

Department: Information Technology
Supervisor: Senior Director, Application Development
Status: Full-Time, Exempt

Position Summary:
The San Francisco Giants application development team is seeking an experienced software engineer that will impact the Giants major league and affiliate teams. In this role, you will build tooling, product enhancements and work with a team of baseball minds to evolve the Giants’ baseball systems. The Giants are looking for a candidate with a passion for baseball and technology, who will research and develop new solutions to enhance their applications.

Position Responsibilities:

  • Design, develop, test, deploy, maintain and improve software applications
  • Build and maintain web/mobile applications, core software components, and ETL pipelines
  • Analyze and improve efficiency, scalability, and stability of all baseball systems
  • Provide excellent customer support for all our baseball systems
  • Work on projects from conception to completion including building prototypes
  • Shape the future of our baseball platforms

Technical Skills/Experience:

  • Cloud Computing: Google Cloud Platform, Amazon Web Services, or Microsoft Azure
  • General purpose programming languages: Java, C/C++, C#, Python, JavaScript, or Go
  • Databases/stores: Microsoft SQL Server, Google BigQuery, MySQL, PostgreSQL, MongoDB, or Redis
  • Web application frameworks: Django, Flask, Angular, Polymer, React, or Bootstrap
  • Distributed systems and data processing frameworks: Spark, Kafka, Kubernetes, or Docker

Knowledge and Skills:

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, a related technical field or equivalent practical experience
  • 4+ years of relevant work experience, including development and/or test automation experience
  • Knowledge of algorithms and fundamental computer science concepts preferred
  • Strong communication skills and great product sense
  • Significant experience in system design as well as scaling systems
  • Strong quantitative abilities and existing knowledge of baseball analytics

To Apply:
To apply, please submit your cover letter and resume here.

The deadline to apply is Friday, January 11, 2019.

Position: Application Development Assistant

Reports To: Senior Director, Application Development
Department: Information Technology
Status: Part-Time/Non-Exempt

Position Summary:
This individual will focus on projects related to baseball development. Projects may include acquiring new data, working on ETL, or front-end development. Additionally, this individual will assist in the daily support and maintenance of The San Francisco Giants baseball information system.

Position Responsibilities:

  • Complete assigned projects related to baseball development and baseball analytics
  • Identify new and unique approaches to accomplish baseball objectives
  • Document all work so that it can be understood and used by other members of the baseball development team
  • Assist in administrative and support tasks related to baseball information systems

Technical Skills:

  • General understanding of scripting language and databases.
  • Experience in .Net, SQL, CSS and JS a plus
  • A technical test will be required as part of the interview process

Knowledge and Skills:

  • Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science, Electrical Engineering or Information Systems, or equivalent experience
  • Strong interest in researching, identifying and applying new techniques and strategic uses of technology
  • Must be able to work efficiently and multi-task in a high stress environment and easily adapt to shifting priorities
  • Self-motivated, detail-oriented, highly organized and deadline driven
  • Resourcefulness, desire and ability to learn quickly and acquire new technical skills
  • Excellent written and verbal communication skills. Technical documentation experience required.
  • Patience and ability to satisfy demanding customers while effectively managing workload and expectations
  • Team player who prefers a collaborative environment
  • Committed to going “above and beyond” to serve the customer and enhance their technical knowledge
  • Knowledge of and passion for baseball

To Apply:
To apply, please submit your cover letter and resume here.

Deadline to apply is Friday, January 18, 2019.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the San Francisco Giants.


Job Posting: Driveline Floor Trainer and R&D Integration Engineer

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Full-Stack Integration Engineer, R&D

Location: Kent, WA

Compensation: Commensurate with experience; top-end of MLB entry-level developer salary ranges.

Benefits: Healthcare, profit sharing, opportunity for work-related paid travel (all after probationary period).

Start Date: Mid-January, 2019

Full-time salaried and exempt on-site hours of ~50 hours per week. This is not a remote position. Limited ability (20%) to work from home may be available after the probationary period, but significant facetime with athletes and staff is valued. Minor financial relocation assistance is offered in the form of a one-time cash payment to assist with travel.

Description: Driveline Baseball is looking for a skilled full-stack integration engineer to join their growing Research and Development team in Seattle. Driveline Baseball secures contracts with multiple MLB teams year-round, providing external amateur draft reports, player development assistance, and on-site implementation of the physical products they manufacture and develop in-house. Driveline Baseball also trains hundreds of elite collegiate and professional hitters and pitchers in their three building complex in Kent, Washington, 20 minutes south of downtown Seattle.

The ideal candidate will have interest in both sports science and sabermetrics, with a desire to broaden their horizons into other fields Driveline is pursuing, such as logistics, manufacturing, and rapid prototyping. Candidates will not be judged based on their formal education background, or lack thereof; the best candidates to come through Driveline Baseball have a varied and colorful history with a portfolio of failed, half-completed, and blocked sports projects of all types. Self-starters, initiative-takers, and those with a healthy skepticism of authority fit in well in the R&D department of Driveline Baseball.

Unlike MLB organizations, at Driveline Baseball, the members of the R&D team work directly and regularly with minor and major league players. You will be communicating directly with big leaguers who will depend on your statistical and quantitative reports to improve their training methods and their pitch selection. You will also deal directly with front office executives and will be expected to take a leading role in directing interns and organizing third-party vendors within months of joining the Driveline team.

This isn’t your average software developer position where you’d be siloed in the front office and seen but not heard – you’ll be on the lines of battle, integrating APIs at a standing desk, standing up servers, figuring out why the network is configured incorrectly, and documenting all the processes you’re in charge of. Bonus points for those who can throw batting practice and have fungo skills.

Responsibilities:

  • Integration engineering and software development to fold in various APIs across a wide variety of sports data sources to improve player development, performance evaluation, scouting projects, and other initiatives.
  • Develop and maintain small-scale RDBMS deployments on VPSes and bare metal alike.
  • Assist with Information Technology requests across the 35 person Driveline Baseball team.
  • Regular communication with the R&D team, executives, management, college/minor/major league baseball players, MLB/NBA/NFL front offices, and vendors who support the organization.
  • Designing tools to lighten the workload of everyone in the organization; working closely with Driveline’s quantitative analysis and project management teams.
  • Data mining/reverse engineering private and public data for additional analysis.
  • Taking the lead on data architecture and maintenance.
  • Taking initiative to expand these fields as you see fit – if it will improve the company, we’ll make the resources available to you.

Qualifications:

  • Formal education: None required. High school dropouts to advanced degree holders will be seen as equals, which reflects the company’s structure as well.
  • Intermediate to advanced level computer programming and/or software development experience. Experience with R, Python, and PHP strongly preferred.
  • Database management and architecture skills. You won’t be required to manage billions of rows and have deep knowledge of sharding, but basic/intermediate devops will be your domain in this role.
  • Some understanding of statistical modeling, quantitative analysis, and data science methods.
  • Excellent “feel.” That mix of empathy, common sense and likability that makes people trust you.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Experience in modeling sports science tasks, like workload tracking, fatigue measurement, or vision training.
  • A GitHub open source portfolio, complete with code and documentation of projects – failed and successful.
  • Previous experience working in professional or collegiate sports in any capacity.
  • Previous experience as an athlete in any collegiate or professional sport.
  • Current self-built management of a Statcast/PITCHfx database, sole or shared with others.
  • Data visualization skills.
  • Web development skills.
  • Management skills – this (especially) includes any retail or food operation management.
  • Technical writing skills.
  • Highly engaged and accomplished gaming skills. High accomplishments in Counter-Strike, League of Legends, Magic: The Gathering, counting blackjack, chess, online/real life poker, or other games.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete this Google form.

Position: Floor Trainer

Location: Kent, WA

Wage: DOE; Full Time, Hourly

Benefits: Healthcare, 10 days PTO

Description: Driveline’s High Performance team improves strength and power development, baseball skills, and movement quality for Driveline athletes. They are learning machines who can apply strength programming to solve skill problems and engage deeply with athletes.

In-gym and remotely, Driveline gets great results training athletes. Strength, skill, therapy and education are foundational elements of those results.

The Floor Trainer reports directly to the Head of Athlete Performance to ensure all elements of athlete programming work in sync with one another. They achieve this by working collaboratively with other trainers and coaches and working daily with Driveline athletes.

Driveline is seeking talented coaches from a variety of backgrounds: strength, pitching, hitting, or manual therapy.

You are highly engaged every day to help athletes achieve their goals.

You can apply strength-based solutions to solve skill issues and vice-a-versa.

You are eager to learn.

You are able to immediately connect with and assess athletes will drive their results and their ability to apply it when they leave our gym.

Primary Job Requirements:

  • Facilitating a great gym environment.
  • Monitoring athlete workouts and engaging athletes to assess.
  • Writing workout plans for athletes who will be executing them with and without your supervision.
  • Working with the Driveline research team to continuously improve their training outcomes.
  • Create weekly educational talks for training athletes.
  • Experience using or teaching Driveline’s programming.
  • Administrative duties: scheduling athletes, tracking hours, planning gym time.
  • Computer literate and proficient with Microsoft Office or Google Docs.

Physical Requirements:
Candidates applying for this position should be able to lift up to 100 pounds unassisted repeatedly throughout the workday. Also, the physical requirements of this job require frequent walking around, demonstrating and assisting with exercise, throwing and hitting movements; bending, throwing, stretching, lifting, pushing, pulling and squatting are movements performed daily.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Excellent leadership and verbal communication skills.
  • One season of coaching experience for a collegiate or professional baseball team (either baseball or strength and conditioning).
  • Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist or equivalent.
  • Excellent “feel.” That mix of empathy, common sense and likability that makes people trust you.
  • A history of independent learning.
  • Creative solutions to unique training limitations.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete this Google form.

Driveline is proud to be an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, creed, gender, marital status, sexual orientation, citizenship status, color, religion, national origin, age, disability, veteran status, or any other status protected under local, state, or federal laws. For employees and applicants for employment who have disabilities, Driveline provides reasonable accommodation.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by Driveline.


Effectively Wild Episode 1310: Pool Party

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Astros’ signing of Michael Brantley, the curious cases of blocked prospects Kyle Tucker and Alex Verdugo, the Mets’ signing of Wilson Ramos, and the unique career of globe-trotting Trey Hillman. Then (20:49) they talk to Charlie Olson, co-founder and CEO of Pando Pooling, about his company’s plan to provide a security net for poorly paid minor-league players by pooling their future earnings, how they approach players and whether the service is an easy sell, how it works and where the concept came from, what type of players tend to take the company up on its offer, how Pando ensures that the terms are upheld, what might change in the future, other industries where pooling might make sense, and more.

Audio intro: Tonedeff, "Safety First"
Audio interstitial: Real Estate, "Pool Swimmers"
Audio outro: Camera Obscura, "Swimming Pool"

Link to Ben’s article about Hillman
Link to Pando site
Link to SI piece about Pando
Link to Big League Advance episode
Link to Agostinelli episode

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What Alex Rodriguez’s Contract Would Look Like Today

After the 2000 season, a 25-year-old Alex Rodriguez had just finished a historically great season. He hit 41 homers, batted .316/.420/.606, and posted a 158 wRC+ to go along with solid shortstop play on his way to 9.5 WAR. In his first five full seasons, Rodriguez averaged over seven wins per year as he headed toward free agency. He might not quite have been early-career Mike Trout (nobody is), but he had just completed one of the 10 best starts to any career in history. The Rangers won Rodriguez’s services with a 10-year, $252 million contract. In the 18 offseasons since, no other free agent has received a larger contract despite payrolls that have more than doubled during that time.

In 2001, the first season of Rodriguez’s deal, the average year-end MLB payroll was $66 million, per data collected from Cot’s Contracts and calculated by Major League Baseball. Last season, that figure was $152 million, which was a drop from 2017, when the average payroll was $155 million. For some perspective, here’s how average payrolls have risen since 2000.

Generally speaking, salaries have risen pretty steadily over the past two decades. Even with the step back last year, salaries have risen at close to 6% per season starting in 2000 and 5% per season starting in 2001. The growth looks healthy, though it has tended to happen in spurts, with the last few seasons showing no growth at all. There is a discussion to be had about spending as it relates to revenue, but this is not that article. Here, I am more concerned with salary growth as it relates to individual players, particularly those at the top of the pay scale.

Average payroll has more than doubled in the past two decades, yet Alex Rodriguez’s contracts remain atop the free agent leaderboard despite occurring in 2000 and 2007. To get a sense of the progression, I looked at the 75 contracts Cot’s has listed as totaling at least $100 million. The first was Kevin Brown‘s $105 million deal ahead of the 1999 season, and we go all the way to Patrick Corbin’s $140 million contract which starts next year. The contracts below aren’t only free agent contracts, as they include contract extensions as well. Here are the top 25. Read the rest of this entry »


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 12/18/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello all!

2:00
Meg Rowley: And welcome to the chat. It is very nice to be back here with you after our jaunt to Vegas.

2:01
Dann: Why would anyone, let alone a contender like the Cubs, invest 2 years and $5m into Daniel Descalso, who can’t play shortstop, when Ian Happ and David Bote each offer basically the same flexibility with considerably more upside at less cost?

2:01
Meg Rowley: Because he’s made some adjustments that make him much more interesting, everyone needs a bench, and it isn’t very much money.

2:02
2:02
pelkey: Since you’re a Vegas expert now, what would you say the odds are haniger gets traded?

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The Quietest Swing-Changer

Last week, as part of a three-team trade, the Indians sent Edwin Encarnacion to the Mariners, and the Mariners sent Carlos Santana to the Indians. Now, that part of the trade was at least partially motivated by money, but both Encarnacion and Santana remain players who could and should have roles on competitive ballclubs. Encarnacion is a 1B/DH in his 30s, and he’s coming off a 115 wRC+. Santana is a 1B/DH in his 30s, and he’s coming off a 109 wRC+. They were above-average hitters, if also diminished from their peaks.

On Tuesday, the Cubs signed veteran utility guy Daniel Descalso for two years and $5 million. Descalso is a versatile sort in his 30s, and he’s coming off a 111 wRC+. And as a matter of fact, it should be even higher, since Descalso played for the Diamondbacks, and our park factors haven’t yet accounted for their newly-installed humidor that turned Chase Field into a more neutral hitting environment. You’re probably not used to having to think about Daniel Descalso, but he’s quietly breathed new life into his career.

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