FanGraphs Audio: Autograph Stories with Jay Jaffe

Episode 842
Jay Jaffe is progenitor of the very famous JAWS metric and author of the reasonably famous The Cooperstown Casebook. On this edition of the programs, he discusses Willie McCovey’s autograph and other people’s autographs. Also: important dates for Hall of Fame season. And: how there’s a shark tunnel at the Winter Meetings.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 44 min play time.)

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 11/13/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hi all– allow me one moment to respond to a Very Pressing Email.

2:01
Meg Rowley: Ok, all set! Welcome to the chat. Let’s see what nonsense we can get up to today.

2:02
Lunar verLander: …you’re not REALLY out of coffee, are you? That’d be some kind of nightmare-ish hellscape…

2:02
Meg Rowley: No, thank goodness. I made more.

2:02
Billy: Any chance Paxton rumors / action heats up again soon? Or does all the “dust” need to settle for Ms FO makes any more moves (assuming they’re still around)?

2:03
Meg Rowley: I would imagine that it might delay for a day or two, but MLB has announced an investigation, and it seems almost certain their trade activity won’t wait for that to conclude.

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Mariners Kick Off Offseason with an Accusation

The Seattle Mariners’ offseason hasn’t gotten off to an ideal start. Despite a 2018 campaign that saw the team win 89 games and compete for a Wild Card spot most of the year, the club appears likely to blow up its roster, having begun the process already with a trade of starting catcher Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay. That was followed by word that Seattle planned to move ace James Paxton, who still has two years of team control left.

While bad news for the team’s short-term prospects, such deals are at least designed to maximize the long-term health of the organization. Another recent development, however, would seem to have little in the way of silver linings. As Ryan Divish reported on Monday, the team suddenly finds itself in the throes of a messy public parting of the ways with ex-employee Dr. Lorena Martin.

You may recall that Dr. Martin was hired a little over a year ago as the team’s first “director of high performance,” a position crafted to use analytics and medicine to keep players healthy. At the time, Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto issued a glowing review of his new hire, as passed along by the Seattle Times.

Martin, who was the director of sports performance analytics for the Los Angeles Lakers, will oversee the organization’s medical, strength and conditioning, nutrition and mental-skills departments.

“We have spent nearly a year working on creating this position and structure as well as identifying the best person for this role,” Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said. “Lorena’s background, skill set and previous experience make her a perfect match for what we envisioned.”

Despite the somewhat florid title, Dr. Martin’s role with the Mariners was fairly groundbreaking.

With the Mariners, she was put in charge of all aspects of physical and mental training for the team’s players, incorporating data from various trainers, coaches and physicians to improve performance.

“My passion for statistics derived from my desire to just want to answer a simple question: ‘What are the variables that professional athletes must have in order to become a world class athlete in their sport?’” Martin told GeekWire. “I found that I could answer my questions through research, measurement, statistics, and analytics.”

In June 2018, the Mariners were still lauding Martin and the job she was doing. In July, TJ Cotterill wrote a profile of Martin for the News-Tribune, noting that Martin had reduced the Mariners’ injuries by 50%. She received praise from Felix Hernandez, who told Cotterill that “[s]he’s made a huge impact.”

But the honeymoon didn’t last. Though Martin was signed to a three-year contract, the Mariners terminated her employment in early October. Ryan Divish relays for the Seattle Times that the Mariners didn’t believe she was as successful at changing the organization’s culture as the club originally anticipated she would be.

Martin’s presence with the major-league team wasn’t as visible as first expected. Dipoto gave her oversight over all aspects of the training and conditioning programs for the entire organization. It was was a massive undertaking.

Also, some players were slow to embrace a new style of thinking about their health, conditioning, nutrition and recovery… there were rumblings that she would have her role reduced with the big-league team and that she would instead work out of the team’s complex in Arizona, focusing more on the minor-league staff in 2019.

But on Monday, Martin posted on Instagram a different explanation for her termination.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BqGUTHYhzq3/

In other words, Dr. Martin is not only alleging senior leadership used racist language but is heavily implying that she and others were terminated for reporting such language. If true, that would violate both Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, as well as Washington’s state-level Human Rights Act. And while we don’t have enough facts to know whether Martin would have standing to file suit for a racist remark if it wasn’t directed at her, terminating her for reporting that conduct is almost certainly unlawful.

The Mariners issued a categorical denial that any such racist conduct occurred.

Martin responded to the Mariners’ statement by confirming that she had, in fact, reported racist incidents to Mariners management.

Of note in Martin’s tweet here is that she provides actual names of trainers she says the Mariners terminated for reporting discriminatory statements. The Mariners, for their part, didn’t deny firing any trainers for that purpose — they denied firing any trainers at all.

So who’s right? We know that Martin didn’t pull the names out of a hat. The team’s categorical denials leave them very little wiggle room should new details emerge. Santiago, for example, was confirmed as working for the Mariners as an athletic coordinator before the 2017 season. I wasn’t able to find any public confirmation that either Santiago or Valdez were terminated, but it should also be noted that neither is listed on the team’s staff directory or coaching roster (though Dr. Martin is still listed). Martin explained her delay in coming forward as the result of ongoing negotiations.

Ryan Divish confirmed at least that such negotiations were occurring, writing that “[s]ources indicated that the Mariners are trying to avoid paying the remaining two years on Martin’s three-year contract for various reasons and that she has hired an attorney.” At the same time, Divish noted that Martin’s contract likely contained an arbitration clause, which would preclude either side from bringing a lawsuit and require both parties to present their claims to an arbitrator.

So why did the Mariners terminate Martin? At this point, we have the team saying it was poor performance and Martin saying it was retaliation for reporting racist comments. It’s also worth noting that the team, including Dipoto, has previously taken a hard line against racist comments, most notably suspending catcher Steve Clevenger without pay for tweets he made regarding Black Lives Matter. The details of this incident are still emerging. Dr. Martin went on the record with the Tacoma News Tribune Monday evening to further detail her allegations; the Mariners once again issued a categorical denial, calling Dr. Martin’s claims “fabricated,” including “her statements about reports to Human Resources and specific allegations about people named in the story.” We simply don’t have enough information at this point to conclusively determine what happened, but either way, this will be a cloud hanging over the Mariners’ already challenging offseason until we have greater clarity.


Davey Johnson and Charlie Manuel Likely to Come Up Short on Today’s Game Ballot

This post is part of a series concerning the 2019 Today’s Game Era Committee ballot, covering executives, managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas on December 9. Use the tool above to read the introduction and other installments. For an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com and Baseball Prospectus. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

2019 Today’s Game Candidates: Davey Johnson and Charlie Manuel
Manager G W-L W-L% G>.500 Playoffs Pennants WS
Davey Johnson 2443 1372-1071 .562 301 6 1 1
Charlie Manuel 1826 1000-826 .548 174 6 2 1
AVG HOF Mgr 3648 1961-1687 .546 274 7 5 2.6
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Nearly 15 years ago at Baseball Prospectus, I introduced a means of using player value estimates to compare Hall of Fame candidates to those that are already enshrined at their positions — the system that soon became known as JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score). There is no similar comparison method for managers, but a few months ago, when news of Mike Scioscia’s pending retirement broke, my former SI.com colleague Cliff Corcoran made an interesting attempt to figure out the Hall of Fame standards for managers. Cliff calculated the averages above based upon 21 enshrined managers, excluding three 19th-century skippers (Ned Hanlon, Frank Selee, and Harry Wright) as well as the Negro Leagues’ Rube Foster. While the shorter careers of modern managers — shorter relative to Connie Mack and John McGraw, at least — and the ever-expanding playoff format make cross-era comparisons a bit more complicated, the numbers do help as guideposts when it comes to discussing Hall of Fame managerial candidates

Davey Johnson

Like Billy Martin before him — albeit with far less drinking and drama — Johnson was renowned for his ability to turn teams around. He posted winning records in his first full season at four of his five managerial stops and took four of the five franchises that he managed to the playoffs at least once. However, after six-plus seasons managing the Mets, he never lasted even three full seasons in any other job and never replicated the success he had in piloting the 1986 Mets to 108 wins and a World Series victory.

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2018 Prospect Graduations

What follows is simply a list of prospects who exceeded rookie-eligibility requirements in 2018. They are sorted into FV tiers (as listed at time of graduation) but not ranked within those tiers. Note the players whom we missed in the “Not Ranked” section at the bottom of the list. Lou Trivino (dominant reliever, probably should have been a 45 FV) and Niko Goodrum (a multipositional bat, typically a 45 FV for us) are prominent whiffs. Several of the 35 FV players were graded more highly in previous years (Fletcher, Laureano, O’Hearn, Palka) and they are a lesson in impatience and over-correction. Also take a gander at this piece from last winter, which I think has aged pretty well, especially the list of middle infielders.

2018 Prospect Graduates
Name Team Pos FV
Shohei Ohtani LAA RHP/DH 70
Ronald Acuna ATL CF 65
Gleyber Torres NYY SS 60
Juan Soto WAS OF 60
Lewis Brinson MIA CF 60
Miguel Andujar NYY 3B 60
Willy Adames TBR SS 60
Corbin Burnes MIL RHP 55
Franklin Barreto OAK CF 55
J.P. Crawford PHI SS 55
Scott Kingery PHI 2B 55
Walker Buehler LAD RHP 55
Austin Meadows PIT OF 50
Brandon Woodruff MIL RHP 50
Brian Anderson MIA 3B 50
Jack Flaherty STL RHP 50
Christian Arroyo TBR 3B 50
Shane Bieber CLE RHP 50
Dustin Fowler OAK CF 50
Fernando Romero MIN RHP 50
Jake Bauers TBR RF 50
Jesse Winker CIN OF 50
Carson Kelly STL C 50
Joey Lucchesi SDP LHP 50
Chance Sisco BAL C 50
Max Fried ATL LHP 50
Ryan McMahon COL 1B 50
Tyler Mahle CIN RHP 50
Colin Moran PIT 3B 50
Tyler O’Neill STL RF 50
Freddy Peralta MIL RHP 45+
Steven Duggar SFG CF 45+
A.J. Minter ATL LHP 45
Alex Blandino CIN 2B 45
Brett Phillips MIL OF 45
Cedric Mullins BAL CF 45
Erick Fedde WSN RHP 45
Franchy Cordero SDP CF 45
Greg Allen CLE CF 45
Harrison Bader STL CF 45
Jaime Barria LAA RHP 45
Jalen Beeks TBR LHP 45
Jorge Alfaro PHI C 45
Luis Guillorme NYM SS 45
Magneuris Sierra MIA CF 45
Mitch Garver MIN C 45
Pablo Lopez MIA RHP 45
Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 45
Ryan Borucki TOR LHP 45
Seranthony Dominguez PHI RHP 45
Tanner Scott BAL LHP 45
Tomas Nido NYM C 45
Caleb Ferguson LAD LHP 40+
Yonny Chirinos TBR RHP 40+
Aaron Bummer CHW LHP 40
Andrew Stevenson WSN OF 40
Andrew Suarez SFG LHP 40
Anthony Santander BAL 1B/OF 40
Austin Slater SFG LF 40
Austin Gomber STL LHP 40
Burch Smith KCR RHP 40
Carlos Tocci TEX CF 40
Carson Fulmer CHW RHP 40
Chris Flexen NYM RHP 40
David Bote CHC 3B 40
Diego Castillo TBR RHP 40
Dillon Peters MIA LHP 40
Domingo German NYY RHP 40
Dovydas Neverauskas PIT RHP 40
Edgar Santana PIT RHP 40
Eduardo Paredes LAA RHP 40
Elieser Hernandez MIA RHP 40
Eric Lauer SDP LHP 40
Eric Skoglund KCR LHP 40
Franmil Reyes SDP LF 40
Gabriel Moya MIN LHP 40
Heath Fillmyer KCR RHP 40
Hunter Dozier KCR 3B 40
Isiah Kiner-Falefa TEX UTIL 40
J.D. Davis HOU 3B 40
Jake Cave MIN CF 40
Jefry Rodriguez WSN RHP 40
Jorge Lopez KCR RHP 40
Lourdes Gurriel TOR SS 40
Luke Bard MIN RHP 40
Max Stassi HOU C 40
Phil Ervin CIN OF 40
Renato Nunez OAK 3B 40
Reyes Moronta SFG RHP 40
Richard Urena TOR SS 40
Roman Quinn PHI CF 40
Ryne Stanek TBR RHP 40
Socrates Brito ARI CF 40
Taylor Williams MIL RHP 40
Taylor Ward LAA 3B 40
Tom Murphy COL 1B 40
Tyler Austin NYY OF 40
Tzu-Wei Lin BOS UTIL 40
Victor Reyes DET OF 40
Yefry Ramirez BAL RHP 40
Ariel Jurado TEX RHP 35
Brad Keller KCR RHP 35
Daniel Palka CHW OF 35
David Fletcher LAA SS 35
David Hess BAL RHP 35
Jace Fry CHW LHP 35
Jesse Biddle ATL LHP 35
Ramon Laureano OAK OF 35
Ryan O’Hearn KCR 1B 35
Victor Arano PHI RHP 35
Adam Cimber CLE RHP NR
Caleb Smith MIA LHP NR
Christian Villanueva SDP 3B NR
Dereck Rodriguez SFG RHP NR
Felix Pena LAA RHP NR
Jeff McNeil NYM INF NR
Justin Anderson LAA RHP NR
Kyle Crick PIT RHP NR
Lou Trivino OAK RHP NR
Nick Martini OAK OF/1B NR
Niko Goodrum DET UTIL NR
Richard Rodriguez PIT RHP NR
Rosell Herrera KCR UTIL NR
Shane Carle ATL RHP NR
Trevor Richards MIA RHP NR

Job Posting: Reds Baseball Systems Developer

Position: Baseball Systems Developer

Department: Baseball Operations

Reports To: Application Development Specialist, Baseball Systems

Job Description:
The Baseball Systems Developer will be responsible for developing, maintaining, testing and implementing web based, packaged, and/or mobile applications to support the Baseball Operations staff. The Systems Developer reviews, analyzes and develops information systems including planning, design, develop, testing, debugging and installation to support the applications and systems of the organization. May be expected to write documentation to describe program development, logic, coding, and corrections.

Essential Duties and Responsibilities:

  • Work with the Information Technology department, Baseball Systems Development staff, Analytics staff, and senior Baseball Operations staff to understand department needs and develop technical solutions that integrate existing and future applications into the organization’s information systems.
  • Employ an iterative software development approach to ensure quick roll-out along with incremental improvements to baseball systems over time.
  • Create specifications through gathering and documentation of user requirements as needed.
  • Work with Baseball Operations staff to prototype and implement user interfaces that are efficient, user-friendly, and aesthetically pleasing.
  • Provide time estimates for programming tasks based on defined project scope.
  • Develop responsive web, mobile, and desktop applications while making use of industry best practices and recommended coding standards to write clear, readable, and efficient code.
  • Ensure code quality with the use of automated unit and integration testing.
  • Responsible for training staff on use of system, including in-person training or videos, and development and maintenance of a reference manual as needed.
  • Provide ongoing support and troubleshooting of all baseball systems, including upgrades to take advantage of new technology.
  • Adhere to Reds Information Technologies security standards, support protocols, and server hardware/software build outs.

Experience, Education and Licensure:

  • Minimum of a BS or equivalent in Computer Science, Information Systems or equivalent; advanced degree preferred.
  • A minimum of 2 years of experience developing enterprise level applications utilizing the Microsoft technology stack including the Microsoft .NET framework.
  • Requires past working experience in all phases of the systems development life cycle (SDLC), including planning, designing, developing, testing, and deployment of information systems.
  • Interface successfully with functional users and clients.
  • Proven track record of building customer relationships.

Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities:

  • Proficient in Microsoft .NET using C# and WebAPI/MVC Framework.
  • Experience using web technologies particularly HTML5, CSS3, and Javascript.
  • Knowledge and experience with at least one Javascript application framework such as AngularJS, Vue.js, React, or similar framework.
  • Mobile development, relational SQL knowledge, and cloud services are nice to have skills.
  • Ability to apply business and industry knowledge to internal applications, databases and systems.
  • Additionally, the position requires developing, reporting from, and integrating existing applications.
  • Passion for baseball, strong intellectual curiosity, and ability to work with a team framework highly desired.
  • Candidate must be available to work non-traditional hours (various nights, weekends, holidays)

Expectations:

  • Adhere to Cincinnati Reds organization policies and procedures.
  • Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds organization.
  • Perform duties as workload necessitates.
  • Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload.
  • Meet department productivity standards.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application found here.

Equal Opportunity Statement:
The Cincinnati Reds are an Equal Opportunity Employer. It is the policy of the Cincinnati Reds to ensure equal employment opportunity without discrimination or harassment on the basis of race, color, national origin, religion or creed, sex, age, disability, citizenship status, marital status, genetic predisposition or carrier status, sexual orientation or any other characteristic protected by law.


The New FanGraphs Scouting Primer

It’s been a while since we posted anything comprehensive and transparent about how we draw our conclusions about prospects. Player evaluation and development are changing very quickly in the game, and those changes obviously influence how we think about prospects here at FanGraphs, enough to merit a refreshing primer before we start publishing this offseason’s organizational lists. In addition to teeing up the lists, this post is meant to act as a central hub that can serve to answer commonly asked questions about prospects and how they’re evaluated, specifically for those in the near future who want to start swimming in the deep end of the prospect pool. As we continue to augment our thinking and methodology, so too will we update this document, which will live in The Essentials section of the Prospects Coverage landing page. Feel free to direct any applicable correspondence to prospects@fangraphs.com. Common queries sent our way may find their way onto this webpage.

What information drives your opinions on prospects?

We see a lot of players ourselves. We talk to scouts from amateur, pro, and international departments about players they’ve seen. We talk to in-office analysts, front-office executives, and people in player development. We also use publicly available data we think is relevant. Some combination of these things fuels each player’s evaluation.

What are some of your shortcomings as far as information is concerned?

Increasingly, teams are using proprietary data as part of the player-evaluation process. TrackMan and Yakkertech aid evaluations on many different components of pitching and hitting, high-speed video of players from Edgertronic cameras allows clubs to better understand and alter hitting and pitching mechanics, and Motus sleeves and Rapsodo are used in pitch engineering. The mere existence and demonstrable efficacy of this stuff has altered the way we’re projecting players, but we don’t have access to the data generated by these devices across the entire population or prospects.

What is FV?

FV stands for Future Value, and it’s the way we distill each player’s scouting evaluation into a single expression. Broadly stated, Future Value is a grade on the 20-80 scale that maps to anticipated annual WAR production during the player’s first six years of service. But there’s also quite a bit of nuance underlying that definition, so let’s break down its components.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1295: The 120-Percent Podcast

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jose Altuve and other players claiming to give (much) more than 100 percent and Joe Mauer‘s retirement and Hall of Fame case, then answer listener emails about Shohei Ohtani’s future role, whether Mike Trout could go contact-for-contact with Willians Astudillo, a baseball romance novel, winning a World Series MVP award without hitting, whether improved pitcher hitting could correct the so-called strikeout scourge, a 60-WAR season vs. 60 one-WAR seasons (and the theoretical single-season WAR maximum), the effects of bigger bases, and teams with no “qualifying” pitchers, plus a Stat Blast about Mallex Smith and the hitters who’ve sprinted their way to extra offensive value.

Audio intro: Ken Ashcorp, "20 Percent Cooler"
Audio outro: Manny, "210 Percent"

Link to Jay’s Mauer post
Link to story on the 1957 A’s
Link to Sam on the ERA title innings minimum

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Get Ready for a James Paxton Blockbuster

James Paxton is going to be traded, and he might well be traded very soon. You can never really know for sure what’s going on behind the scenes, now that front offices are increasingly leak-proof, but Paxton rumors have been bubbling to the surface with frequency, and we know Jerry Dipoto isn’t afraid of making a deal in November. The free-agent market is probably going to take its time to develop. The trade market has already opened. Dipoto moved his best catcher. Before too long, he’s going to move his best pitcher.

The Mariners, of course, were just in the playoff hunt for a while. And if there’s something they need, it’s more pitching, not less. More than anything, the Mariners would love to bring an end to their extended playoff drought, and Paxton has developed into something they should be proud of. The Mariners could use James Paxton. The Mariners could use a few James Paxtons. Yet, the big-league roster? It’s not great. And the minor-league system? It’s arguably the worst. Paxton’s looking at two remaining years of club control. The Mariners need to be honest about their timeline. It seems they’ve decided to turn Paxton’s two years into many more years of promising youngsters.

I’m not telling you much of anything you don’t already know. And I already talked about Paxton a little bit the other week. But ahead of any trade, I wanted to write this reminder of just how good Paxton really is. It’s going to be a big-time move, whenever it happens. Give me a few minutes to explain to you why.

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Retiring Mauer and Utley Both Worthy of Cooperstown

It was hardly unexpected, but within an hour-long period on Friday evening, Twitter brought news of the retirements of both Joe Mauer and Chase Utley, two players worthy of spots in the Hall of Fame once they become eligible five years from now, on the 2024 ballot. Mauer, who had not previously declared his intentions, wrote a personal letter to Twins fans, explaining his decision to retire at age 35, while the Dodgers merely announced they had given Utley — who had declared in mid-July that this season would be his final one — his unconditional release so as to facilitate his retirement.

While I’ve written about both players before at FanGraphs, the pairing of the announcements serves as an opportunity to round up that work and update their credentials.

Mauer is the more obviously qualified of the two. A former No. 1 overall pick out of St. Paul, Minnesota’s Cretin-Derham Hall High School in 2001, he spent the entirety of his 15-year career with the Twins, making six All-Star teams, helping the team to four postseason appearances (though, alas, no series wins), and winning three Gold Gloves and three batting titles apiece. Though he debuted on Opening Day 2004 (April 5) with a 2-for-3 showing against the Indians, he was limited to just 35 games in his rookie season due to a torn meniscus in his left knee. Even in that brief stint, he showed that he was a force to be reckoned with at the plate, batting .308/.369/.570 with six homers in 122 plate appearances for a 139 wRC+.

While Mauer would only intermittently show that kind of power thereafter — he had just six seasons with at least 10 homers — he established himself as a high-average, high-OBP hitter in a way seldom seen among catchers. He won batting titles in 2006 (.347), 2008 (.328), and 2009 (.365), making him the only three-time winner among catchers. Hall of Fame Ernie Lombardi is the only two-time winner (.342 in 1938 and .330 in 1942), while Deacon White (.367 in 1875), Bubbles Hargrave (.353 in 1926), and Buster Posey (.336 in 2012) are the only others to win. Mauer topped a .300 average six times as a catcher and once as a first baseman. More importantly, he topped a .400 OBP six times, second among catchers to Hall of Famer Mickey Cochrane’s eight, and is the only catcher to lead league more than once, doing so both in 2009 (.444) and 2012 (.416); he ranked among the AL’s top 10 seven times. In that 2009 season, when he hit a career-high 28 home runs, he also led the league in slugging percentage (.587), thereby making him the only catcher ever to win the “Slash Stat” Triple Crown. He was elected the AL MVP that year, receiving 27 out of 28 first-place votes.

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