With its assortment of winner-take-all, best-of-five and best-of-seven series, playoff baseball is inherently small-sample theater. Obviously, the wins and losses mean a whole lot to the teams and their fans, but there’s danger in ascribing too much meaning to the numbers that underly them given the circumstances. Nonetheless, we can’t help but notice certain trends, and wonder how they may connect to what we spent six months observing over the course of the regular season. While far from comprehensive, here are a handful of things that caught my eye through the first four days of Division Series play.

Astros vs. Indians: Nearly Hitless in Houston

Through the first two games of their Division Series, the Indians have been almost completely stifled by the Astros’ pitching. In Game 1, they didn’t get their first hit off Justin Verlander until Yan Gomes‘ single to lead off the sixth inning. In Game 2, they didn’t collect a hit after Melky Cabrera‘s infield single off Gerrit Cole in the fifth. In all, they’ve totaled just six hits, which puts them in jeopardy of having the fewest in a Division Series if their bats don’t perk up in Game 3. Likewise, for Division Series records for fewest total bases; they currently have nine, with Francisco Lindor’s Game 2 homer, which briefly gave them a 1-0 lead, their only extra-base hit. Here are the lowest totals for hits in a three-game ALDS or NLDS:

And for total bases:

Read the rest of this entry »

Toronto flirted with contention in the early stages of the season, staying on the edges of the AL East race through the end of April. But then April showers brought May flowers — lilies — to the pitching staff and while the Jays never lost at the amusing rate of the Orioles, the patient was already in rigor mortis by midseason.

The Setup

The Blue Jays had high expectations going into the 2017 season. Not even expectations I can make fun of, given that the ZiPS projection system had them at 87 wins going into the regular season. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it still doesn’t seem like thinking the Jays had a good shot at the playoffs in 2017 was all that ludicrous a proposition.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, we talked about a federal grand jury probe currently investigating Major League Baseball’s activity in Latin America. At the time, it appeared that the signing of Hector Olivera seemed to be a significant part of that investigation. Thanks to Carl Prine and Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated, we now have a much better idea of the matters at which that grand jury is looking.

Collectively, the documents [provided to the Grand Jury] offer a vivid window into both this netherworld and the thermodynamics of the operation: How Caribbean smugglers traffic Cuban nationals to American soil, using third-country way stations. How the underground pipeline ferries Cuban players to stash houses in countries like Haiti and Mexico before they can seek lucrative contracts with MLB clubs. How teams interact with buscones, the unregulated street-level agents who often take a financial stake in Latin American players.

The dossier given to the FBI suggests the extent to which some MLB personnel are aware of—and brazenly discuss—this unscrupulous culture and the potential for corruption. While both the league office and other teams are mentioned in the files obtained by SI, the Los Angeles Dodgers, a franchise with extensive scouting and development operations in the Caribbean, figure most prominently in the dossier[.]

Prine and Wertheim provide a detailed piece that’s is worth your time. Whitney McIntosh also published a helpful summary of their work for SBNation. A couple of interesting points jump out of their reporting, however. First, the Grand Jury and FBI are already evidently receiving at least some cooperation from important witnesses.

SI has learned that multiple alleged victims of smuggling and human trafficking operations have already given evidence to law enforcement agents or testified before a federal grand jury.

Second is that the Dodgers are evidently a prime target of the probe.

One particularly remarkable document shows that Dodgers executives in 2015 went so far as to develop a database that measured the perceived “level of egregious behavior” displayed by 15 of their own employees in Latin America. That is, using a scale of 1 to 5—“innocent bystander” to “criminal”—front-office executives assessed their own staff’s level of corruption. Five employees garnered a “criminal” rating.

***

Internal communications by the Dodgers show concerns about what team officials called a “mafia” entrenched in their operations in the Caribbean and Venezuela, including a key employee who dealt “with the agents and buscones” and was “unbelievably corrupt.” Other personnel were suspected of being tied to “altered books” or “shady dealings,” according to the documents.

We can all agree that analytics are wonderfully useful. For those who have plans of participating in international organized crime, however, please note that crafting charts to depict one’s level of criminality is unwise — as is openly discussing one’s own personal mafia.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 838
Craig Edwards traveled to Milwaukee for Games One and Two of the NLDS between the Brewers and Rockies. In this edition of the program, he discusses what he saw there. Also: what criteria must a club meet to become a dynasty? And: if teams added no players this offseason, which club would be best in 2019?

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Tom Hamilton has been the radio voice of the Indians since 1990. Very early into that tenure there was a chance — albeit a small one — that he would move on and spend the bulk of his career elsewhere. How might that have happened? In the winter following Hamilton’s second year in Cleveland, the Detroit Tigers inexplicably informed iconic broadcaster Ernie Harwell that 1991 would be his final season in the booth.

“Ernie told me that I should apply for the job, or at least go if I got called,” Hamilton explained. “I felt uncomfortable about that — nobody wanted to see Ernie have his career end that way — but he came to me and said that I should. The Tigers did call, so I interviewed even though I didn’t really have an interest. Not only was I happy in Cleveland, I didn’t want to be the guy following Ernie.”

Rick Rizzs, who is now in Seattle, ended up getting the job. Predictably, he wasn’t well-received. While Rizzs was, and remains, a quality baseball play-by-play announcer, that means little when you’re stepping into the shoes of a legend.

Another Wolverine State sports legend made Hamilton’s reluctant interview more than worthwhile. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the difficulties of postseason scheduling, both opening games of the NLDS, a better bullpen game by the Brewers, the Rockies’ decision to pitch to Mike Moustakas, what Christian Yelich is doing differently, the composition of the Braves and the depth of the Dodgers and Astros, and Chis Sale’s history of fading down the stretch, then answer listener emails about what would happen to a manager who consistently lost in the World Series, why teams haven’t shuffled their lineups in response to the opener, Madison Bumgarner (and every other hitting pitcher) vs. Chris Davis, how quickly stats could distinguish between Chris Davis and Khris Davis, and awarding fans for throwing balls at baserunners, plus a Stat Blast about 100-loss teams beating 100-win teams.

Audio intro: The New Pornographers, "Three or Four"
Audio outro: Pink Floyd, "Free Four"

Link to Jeff’s Yelich post
Link to Ben’s Sale article
Link to the .247 shirt

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

This is one of those marathon days of playoff baseball, where the league manages to string four important games in a row. And when you have four scheduled playoff games in a day, you can expect to see some quality pitching. Right now, literally as I’m writing this, Corey Kluber is going head-to-head against Justin Verlander. Later on, the Red Sox will give the ball to Chris Sale. Hours after that, the Dodgers will give the ball to Clayton Kershaw. The playoffs select for good teams. Good teams effectively select for good pitching. I don’t need to tell you how the playoffs work.

Kluber, Verlander, Sale, Kershaw — obviously, each of them is amazing. They’re so good, and they’ve been so good for so long, that most of you already know what they throw. You know how they work, and you know all their best weapons. You know their putaway pitches. Certain select pitchers get to that level, where fans are able to break down their repertoires. It’s a testament to their collective success. It’s not easy to get people to know so much about you. Fans often aren’t so concerned with the details.

But I can tell you that, today, there’s going to be another spectacular pitch. A spectacular pitch from an unlikely source. Kluber has that excellent breaking ball. Verlander has that excellent four-seamer. Sale has his own excellent four-seamer. Kershaw has an excellent slider. The Brewers’ Game 2 starter against the Rockies is Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin’s an anonymous starter with one dynamite weapon.

Read the rest of this entry »

The end of the Cubs’ season came earlier than expected, with the North Siders finding themselves unceremoniously dispatched from the playoffs by the Rockies in the Wild Card Game earlier this week. Addison Russell, once regarded as vital cog in an emerging Cubs dynasty, was absent from the roster for that game, confined instead to administrative leave. The next day, Major League Baseball announced that Russell would be suspended for 40 games, including the 12 games already spent on administrative leave, to be enforced at the beginning of the 2019 season. In essence, Russell will miss all of April.

Word is already circling that the shortstop has played his last game with Chicago. Russell, for his part, agreed not to appeal. “After gaining a full understanding of the situation I have concluded it’s in the best interest of my family to accept MLB’s proposed resolution of this matter. I wish my ex-wife well and hope we can live in peace for the benefit of our child.” Part of that resolution — the one marked by the phrase “agreed not to appeal,” which appears in Manfred’s statement above — is something I’ve addressed before when discussing Roberto Osuna’s suspension.

We learn here not that [Roberto] Osuna decided not to appeal but rather that he agreed not to appeal. Osuna, in other words, effectively settled his case with MLB, agreeing to a shorter suspension in exchange for not appealing. This sort of resolution isn’t necessarily dissimilar to a plea bargain or civil settlement, both of which have their utility. It’s an open question, however, whether baseball’s accused domestic abusers ought to have a say in their own discipline, particularly when that discipline is being enforced by their employer. And Osuna’s case isn’t an isolated incident; rather, it’s standard policy. The same thing happened with Aroldis Chapman, for example.

FanGraphs’ own Jeff Sullivan arrived at a logical conclusion following the announcement of Russell’s punishment:

On one level, Sullivan’s point makes sense: Osuna received a harsher sentence than Russell, ergo Osuna must have done something worse. Because we have a firsthand account detailing Melisa Reidy-Russell’s allegations against her ex-husband, we then also (hypothetically) have some kind of baseline for the sort of penalty his disturbing behavior warrants by the terms of the league’s domestic-violence policy. The Commissioner determined that Russell violated the policy, just as he determined Osuna violated the policy. Presumably, those determinations were supported by evidence; otherwise, the players would never have agreed to not appeal the discipline.

But that leads to another problem, one to which Michael Baumann alluded recently at The Ringer:

The details of the suspension aren’t the important part of this case. In fact, this process is so common that it’s taken on a tragic roteness. The 40-game ban — which is retroactive to the start of Russell’s time on administrative leave, September 21 — will invite comments about how MLB punishes first-time PED violations more harshly than players suspended under its domestic violence policy. It also raises questions about how Russell’s case is different from that of Astros closer Roberto Osuna, who earned a 75-game suspension — does MLB believe that there’s some sort of graduated scale of badness for intimate partner violence?

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »