Sunday Notes: Drew Gilbert Grew Up a Twins Fan (and Loves Playoff Baseball)

Boyhood allegiances typically go away after a player is drafted and signs with a team other than the one he (or she) grew up following. Drew Gilbert isn’t necessarily an exception to that rule, but the 24-year-old St. Paul native does retain a soft spot for the Minnesota Twins.

“I think that happens a little more so as you get older, not necessarily exactly when you sign,” said Gilbert, whom the Houston Astros drafted 24th overall in 2022 out of the University of Tennessee. “You move around a lot. I went from Minnesota to Tennessee, and then once you get drafted you go around the country with different affiliates. I don’t want to say you lose the fandom, but it naturally goes away a little bit. That being said, when [the Twins] were in the playoffs last year it was still super fun to watch. Of course, any time you get playoff baseball, no matter who you’re rooting for, it’s a cool thing to watch.”

The 2023 Twins aren’t the only team he’s had reason to root for in the postseason. The Astros won the World Series in his 2022 draft year, and his new organization’s parent club has a chance to do so this year. The New York Mets acquired Gilbert as part of last summer’s Justin Verlander trade deadline deal. Read the rest of this entry »


Tempting Fate: The Mets Avoid Elimination as the Dodgers Play the Long Game

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Less than 20 minutes before what might have been the final game of the year at Citi Field, the OMG Mets introduced one more good-vibes gimmick. Five, actually.

The Temptations, the legendary Motown band, took the field behind home plate dressed in their signature suits and sang the National Anthem. Moments later, the quintet donned Mets jerseys and performed “My Girl,” their classic song that is played here whenever Francisco Lindor steps to the plate. If the Mets were going to be eliminated in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series, at least they’d go down singing.

Turns out, the Temptations were just the opening act for a three-hour rock revival. When it was over, the Mets had blown out the Dodgers, 12-6, and ensured that their remarkable run would continue for at least another game.

“We’ve played with our backs against the wall the whole year, and we’ve been able to rise to the occasion,” left fielder Brandon Nimmo said. “Some might say we’re at our best at that time. If anybody can do it, we can do it.” Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2233: Cleveland Classics

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Game 3 of the ALCS and Game 4 of the NLCS, follow up (39:05) on replay review, fly-ball classifications, and executive titles, answer listener emails (53:22) about retiring numbers for both home and road teams and correctly labeling bat “flips,” and Stat Blast (1:03:46) about postseason despair, ball behavior, and roster turnover, plus (1:50:49) a postscript.

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)

Link to FG playoff coverage
Link to Noel HR call
Link to triple HR prediction
Link to Giménez play
Link to 2016 NBA Finals wiki
Link to Jaffe on Smith
Link to Johansson hat
Link to xkcd comic
Link to listener emails database
Link to Bautista bat flip
Link to Playoff Despair Index data
Link to Sheehan on October offense
Link to Ben on the 2019 ball
Link to postseason SLG-xSLG
Link to lowest postseason SLGs
Link to Tango on re-centering 1
Link to Tango on re-centering 2
Link to Smith flyout
Link to Sheehan on roster turnover
Link to Ben on roster turnover
Link to roster turnover data
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to Episode 1771 Stat Blast
Link to Episode 1586 Stat Blast
Link to hard-hit FB out %
Link to hard-hit LD out %
Link to Garcia nickname
Link to Sportico on sports betting
Link to Jeter clip

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ALCS Game 4: A Tale of Two Bullpens (Both Bad)

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Managing in the playoffs is all about balancing immediate payoffs and long-term sustainability. Not ultra long-term, mind you, but managing a bullpen for a seven-game series is trickier than simply pressing the same buttons every day until you win or lose. ALCS Game 4 featured three momentous bullpen decisions. The managers chose differently; they both paid the price. In the end, the Yankees got the better of the Guardians in a 14-pitcher, three-and-a-half-hour, 14-run shootout. But a few early decisions absolutely shaped the way the game went, and so they take center stage here tonight.

No Rest for Cade Smith

Cade Smith was one of the best relievers in baseball this year. If he didn’t play on the same team as Emmanuel Clase, we’d call him a lockdown closer. Instead, he’s a dominant fireman, capable of coming in whenever Stephen Vogt needs him to ice the opposition. And Vogt has needed him a lot. He pitched in all five games of the ALDS. He got the first game of this series off, but then he faced the meat of the Yankees lineup in Game 2 and Game 3.

He’s been pitching nearly every day, which hurts. He’s facing the same batters over and over, which hurts. But what are you going to do, not use your best option against a team that has two MVP-level bats stacked together in an otherwise navigable lineup? Juan Soto had already homered and the Yankees were up 3-2 when the top of the order came up in the sixth inning. On came Smith, for the third time in four days. Read the rest of this entry »


Whatever It Is This October, It’s Catching

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Though he wasn’t the offensive star of Game 3 of the National League Championship Series — he didn’t hit a moonshot into the second deck like Shohei Ohtani or Max MuncyWill Smith did collect two hits in the Dodgers’ 8-0 victory over the Mets. They weren’t exactly scorchers, but one was of critical importance, as it drove in the game’s first run. Remarkably, Smith’s performance was just the second time this postseason that a catcher has collected multiple hits in a game, and for as much as Smith has struggled, his numbers still stand out relative to the competition. It’s been an exceptionally difficult October for the men wearing the tools of ignorance.

These days, those tools actually suggest anything but ignorance. Armed with more data than ever, and playing in a pressure-cooker atmosphere where a single pitch can turn a series, Smith and those of his peers who are still standing (or squatting) in October — namely the Yankees’ Austin Wells, the Mets’ Francisco Alvarez, and the Guardians’ tandem of Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges — might be required to navigate a short-working starter and half a dozen relievers through opposing lineups, controlling the tempo of the game when things threaten to spiral out of control, and shaking off untold aches and pains. Hitting? That’s part of the job, but this fall, these catchers’ offensive contributions have felt particularly secondary, not unlike those of pitchers swinging the bat in the days before the universal designated hitter.

The numbers certainly look like those bygone pitchers hacking away. Thus far, the catchers for the 12 postseason teams have collectively hit .169/.236/.255 (40 wRC+) with five homers and a 28.3% strikeout rate through 254 plate appearances. In other words, they’ve been outhit by Madison Bumgarner (.172/.232/.292, 44 wRC+ career). Read the rest of this entry »


Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat- 10/18

12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from beautiful Tempe where the temps have finally dipped after something like 20 days in a row of record highs.

12:12
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the two east valley Fall League games today and want to put the bow on another dispatch of notes so I’ll likely keep this chat tight to the top of the hour.

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

12:13
Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all your prospects content. Wondering when you’ll have any updates on the upcoming international signing periods. Particularly interested in any Red Sox related intel. Thanks!

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’ve got a bunch of big $ names and team for the next couple of years in my notes and I’ll be building out the $1mil+ version of The Board for publication in the next few weeks…

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to spread out medium sized bonuses across their entire class rather than spend $2mil+ on any one guy and I imagine that’s the case again

Read the rest of this entry »


Thomas Saggese Believes in Loft and the Position of His Body in Space

Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals got more than just the 2023 Texas League MVP when they acquired Thomas Saggese from the Rangers as part of the five-player Jordan Montgomery deal at last year’s trade deadline. They also got a young hitter who is attuned to the mechanics of his craft. For Saggese — Texas’ fifth round pick in the 2020 draft out of Carlsbad High School in California — getting on plane with a pitch and driving it is the goal. The manner in which he positions his body in space is what allows him to do that.

A middle infielder listed at 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, Saggese doesn’t look the part of a player who went deep 26 times in 2023 and another 21 times this past season. But regardless of his appearance, the pop is there, as is what our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen has described as a “feel to hit [that] has been the lynchpin of his prospectdom since high school.” Moreover, Saggese has youth on his side. While his slash line with Triple-A Memphis was a humble .253/.313/.438, those numbers came at age 22 (he won’t turn 23 until April). The Cardinals clearly recognize his upside. Saggese got a big league call-up in September and logged 10 hits, including his first big league home run, in 52 trips to the plate.

Saggese — currently suiting up with the Glendale Desert Dogs — talked hitting following an Arizona Fall League game earlier this week.

———

David Laurila: How do you feel that you profile as a hitter? Looking at your numbers, I see more home runs than I might have expected.

Thomas Saggese: “I think my best swings just happen to be balls in the air. I feel like I get the ball in the air pretty well and can hit some homers. I don’t think it’s going to be anything crazy, but I would like to hit 20 a year — .300 with 20 homers every year. That’s kind of my goal.” Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2232: Get Out the Vogt

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a report that Jerry Reinsdorf might be willing to sell the White Sox, then (13:22) discuss the tactics and storylines of ALCS and NLCS Game 2, including controversial Vogt decisions, how Yankees fans would perceive a pennant or championship, the importance of Max Muncy, visualizing success, Shohei Ohtani’s small-sample splits and playoff history, and more. After that (1:08:02), they answer listener emails about people who don’t know Ohtani can pitch, why some plays aren’t reviewable via replay, expanding the three-batter-minimum rule, and pedantry concerning squaring up foul balls, “taking a souvenir away” when robbing a homer, flying out sharply, and Canadian baseball-executive titles, plus a postscript featuring Ben’s daughter’s Effectively Wild debut (1:39:06).

Audio intro: Liz Panella, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes 2, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Reinsdorf report
Link to MLBTR on Reinsdorf
Link to Clemens on Vogt
Link to recent franchise sales
Link to more on recent sales
Link to playoff batting leaders
Link to Baumann on Ohtani splits
Link to Ohtani on the postseason story
Link to Ohtani on the postseason video
Link to Ohtani NPB postseason stats
Link to Ohtani New Balance ad 1
Link to Ohtani New Balance ad 2
Link to xkcd comic
Link to Buehler game story
Link to neighborhood play explainer
Link to replay review explainer
Link to McTaggart tweet
Link to squared-up-barrels rate
Link to squared-up-rate explainer
Link to Greene robbery video
Link to listener emails database

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In an Instant Classic, the Guardians Walk Off ALCS Game 3

Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Cleveland’s baseball club was known as the Blues when the American League was formed in 1901, but that’s far from what Guardians fans were singing following Thursday’s ALCS Game 3. Two days before A Tribe Called Quest and other musical luminaries are to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, Progressive Field erupted in rapture as David Fry circled the bases in the bottom of the 10th inning to cap a stunning comeback and give the Guardians a 7-5 win.

More on that in a moment.

The first inning featured missed opportunities — both teams stranded a pair of runners — as well as a pitch clock violation on a chagrinned Juan Soto and a sliding catch by Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas. That those happenings barely qualify as footnotes says a lot about what would eventually transpire. Ditto a second inning that saw Alex Verdugo chop a ball over first baseman Josh Naylor’s head and leg out a sliding double on a play where second base umpire Jansen Visconti ruled that Brayan Rocchio had a foot blocking the bag (that was debatable). Anthony Volpe advanced to third on the hit, then scored on a Jose Trevino groundball single that made it 1-0 Yankees. Guardians starter Matthew Boyd proceeded to pick off Trevino, which helped to limit the damage. Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Beat the Bejeezus Out of the Mets, Again

John Jones-Imagn Images

In baseball history, there have been 15 players signed to contracts worth a total of $300 million or more. The Dodgers started three of those 15 players on Thursday night — Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That’s a ridiculous amount of money, especially for such a trivial enterprise as baseball. When a team — even a team as well-resourced as the Dodgers — spends that much money on a trio of players, it means they really want to win.

Well, the syndicate of investors at Guggenheim Baseball Management got their money’s worth on Thursday. Ohtani homered to lead off the game and added three walks, scoring four runs in total. Betts went 4-for-6 with three runs and a homer of his own, which took the Dodgers’ lead from tenuous to comfortable in the sixth. And Yamamoto struck out eight batters in 4 1/3 innings as the Dodgers won 10-2. The World Series is now just one win away. Read the rest of this entry »