Matt LeCroy played for Ron Gardenhire back when the former was a slugging catcher-first baseman for the Minnesota Twins in the early 2000s. Today, he shares many of the veteran skipper’s attributes. LeCroy is now a manager himself — he skippers Washington’s Double-A affiliate, the Harrisburg Senators — and there’s a lot of ‘Gardy’ in the way he goes about his business. Equal parts engaging and nuts-and-bolts baseball rat, he’s adept at balancing the variety of responsibilities that comes with the job.

Managing in the minors obviously differs from managing in the big leagues. The focus is more on player development than it is on winning, which LeCroy learned after being hired to lead Low-A Hagerstown in 2009. Now, 10 years after that first managerial gig, he’s using his experience — including what he gleaned from Gardy — to mentor the likes of Carter Kieboom and, earlier this season, Juan Soto.

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Matt LeCroy: “The biggest thing I’ve learned is to put players in positions to be successful. Preparing guys for the big leagues is a lot harder than I assumed it was going to be. When I first started out, I had goals, too. I figured that if I won, I may have a chance to go coach or manage in the big leagues. But that’s not why I’m here. My main job is to make sure I maximize everybody’s abilities to the highest level possible, so that they can go to the next level.

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During the All-Star break, Manny Machado was traded to the Dodgers for a solid package of prospects led by Yusniel Diaz. Last night, longtime closer Zach Britton was shipped off to the Yankees for Dillon Tate and some other interesting names. Both moves were obviously made with a view to the Orioles’ future.

Both moves were also inevitable, though — and, in a way, easy. It doesn’t take a fancypants scientist to figure out that trading terrific players who’re headed to free agency is a smart thing to do; us regular-pantsed folks can see that for ourselves. Now, though, there are harder decisions to make, other players to give away, if the Orioles are going to embrace a full rebuild. Complicating this is an organization that has shown a tendency to balk at hard decisions and put off future plans, preferring instead to tread water with the least aggressive quarter-measures available. In this case, however, action is required.

Unfortunately, we can’t just waltz into the B&O Warehouse and start trading away Orioles. Seriously, I double-checked what my credentials will permit. No, we may have to seize the team by force. Let’s presume that our dark FanGraphs forces can seize the corporate offices successfully — we do have a particular expertise involving WAR — and gain control of the franchise. It wouldn’t be the first war lost by the Angelos family, and Sheryl Ring can draft some paperwork to make this nice and legal. We have to be quick, though, before we all end up in jail. So let’s start the sale.

Kevin Gausman to the Pittsburgh Pirates

It seems a little too easy to sell Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs and, really, at this point, I’m tired of Orioles pitchers going to Chicago and experiencing a renaissance. Jake Arrieta is the most noted example, but the Cubs squeezed significant value out of Jason Hammel, Pedro Strop, and even Tsuyoshi Wada. The Pirates aren’t rightly interested in rentals: they’ll require somebody who’s useful beyond the 2018 season because, even with their 11-game winning streak, they’re still more likely than not to miss the postseason.

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Baltimore’s deadline purge of big-league mainstays continued Tuesday night as they sent LHP Zach Britton to the division rival Yankees for a trio of pitching prospects: RHPs Dillon Tate and Cody Carroll, as well as LHP Josh Rogers.

Barring something unforeseen, all three of the new Orioles have a probability of contributing at some level in the majors, as all three are upper-level arms with at least playable big-league stuff. As seemed to also be the case in the Manny Machado deal, Baltimore has (consciously or not) prioritized quantity and probability over potential impact as they begin their rebuild in earnest. Other than a fully realized Tate, none of the pitchers acquired for Britton is likely to be more than a role-playing big leaguer.

So let’s tart with Tate, as he’s not only the player with the best draft pedigree but also the deal’s most volatile piece. He entered his junior year at UC Santa Barbara having thrown just 46 collegiate total innings as an underclassman — this due to having worked out of the bullpen as a sophomore and having barely worked at all as a freshman. But he had the best stuff on a staff that also included Cleveland rookie Shane Bieber and enough strike-throwing ability to start, so he was moved into UCSB’s rotation and asked to throw more than twice as many innings in one season than he had in his entire career to that point.

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All morning long, on Twitter, I found myself wading through Zach Britton rumors. At seemingly any moment, Britton could be off for one of the top contenders, looking to stabilize the back of the bullpen. It’s not hard to explain Britton’s appeal — though his performance hasn’t been outstanding since returning from the disabled list, he still throws hard, and the sinker still sinks, so he looks close enough to the guy he used to be. Britton is good. If he’s healthy, he’ll get a lot of outs.

Britton’s a lefty. Of course, we just saw another prominent lefty reliever get moved last week, when the Indians added Brad Hand. I want to make it clear now that there’s a difference between “most interesting” and “best.” There’s a great chance that Hand will be the trade deadline’s best lefty. I just can’t help but search off the radar, and, to get to the point, I’d like to talk about Adam Conley. I don’t know if he’ll actually get moved by the Marlins, since he’s under club control through 2021, but I’ve seen enough rumors about Kyle Barraclough and Drew Steckenrider to believe it’s a possibility. A team in the Marlins’ position shouldn’t be hoarding relievers. And if a contender is looking for a bullpen southpaw, Conley deserves a serious look.

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Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Starling Joseph, OF, Texas Rangers (Profile)
Level: Short-Season   Age: 19   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35+
Line: 3-for-4, HR

Notes
Joseph is a physical 6-foot-3 outfielder with plus raw power. He’s raw from a bat-to-ball standpoint due to length and a lack of bat control, but the power/frame combination here is interesting for a 19-year-old. Joseph has a 67:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in domestic pro ball and is as high-risk of a prospect as you’ll find, but he has the power to carry the profile if he ever becomes sentient in the batter’s box.

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Second base is a position where defensive concerns generally outweigh offensive ones, as suggested by the modest 94 wRC+ recorded collectively by second basemen this year (although that figure was as high as 106 as recently as two years ago). This year has been a rough one for aging second-sackers, with Daniel Murphy and Dustin Pedroia barely playing due to knee injuries, Ian Kinsler struggling, Robinson Cano getting suspended, and several other previous stalwarts — Brian Dozier, Jason Kipnis, Joe Panik — seeming to fall apart before our eyes. Some of these, as you will see, have direct bearings on our rankings here, while others limit the pool of available replacements.

Among contenders (which for this series I’ve defined as teams with playoff odds of at least 15.0%, a definition that currently covers 16 teams), six teams have gotten less than 1.0 WAR at second base thus far, but as with catchers and first basemen, a closer look at each situation suggests not all will be in the market for external solutions — an area that colleague Dan Szymborski will examine later. Between early-season injuries and slow-starting veterans, some of these teams aren’t in as dire a shape as the overall numbers suggest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re out of the woods.

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As was the case for the fans an hour north in Baltimore — where franchise cornerstone Manny Machado entered the last year of his own contract — the 2018 campaign has, for Washington supporters, loomed in the distance like a poorly understood Mayan prophecy. It was, of course, Bryce Harper’s final season before entering free agency.

Unlike the Orioles, though, the Nationals were at least likely to provide some solace by remaining the class of the NL East until Harper left to grab his $300 million contract. Unfortunately for residents of the area, that merry scenario has not unfolded as expected. While the the Braves and Phillies seemed unlikely to have completed their rebuilds by the start of the 2018 season, both teams appear to have done exactly that, leaving the Nationals in third place a week from the deadline, six games back and a game below .500.

More surprising than the accelerated schedule of Atlanta and Philadelphia is Harper’s role in the poor season. Even hitting .216, Harper has been far from worthless, recording a .365 on-base and .470 slugging percentage for a 119 wRC+. With some poor defensive numbers added in, the result is a 1.4 WAR in nearly two-thirds of a season. A league-average player is a real contributor, of course, but a league-average Bryce Harper feels a little like Beethoven composing the radio jingle for a local pizza place.

(Historical note: Beethoven’s Der glorreiche Augenblick, Op. 136 isn’t really that far off from being this, but that’s a story for another day on another site — or, more likely, just a Google search.)

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Due, in part, to Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA and also, in part, to the sub-3.00 ERA recorded by pitchers as a whole that season, 1968 is known as the Year of the Pitcher. Fifty years later, even with run-scoring at much healthier levels, pitchers are also receiving a lot of attention — not so much for their run-prevention skills (although that’s part of it) but for their ability to generate strikeouts. No individual pitcher this season is going to replicate Gibson’s performance, but the 2018 season might produced the largest single group of great performances in history.

Most statistical bars are somewhat arbitrary, but we have to set some sort of cutoff to denote a “great” season. For the purposes of finding these seasons, let’s set some minimum standards. While we could just make a list by WAR, that doesn’t include runs allowed, and fair or not, people tend to pay attention to ERA. Because run-scoring environments change considerably year-to-year, strictly looking at ERA and FIP doesn’t do the job, either, so let’s set the minimum standards as ERA- and FIP- both at 70 or under in a qualified season. Since 1901, there have been just 158 such seasons, essentially four every three years.

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