Let me share with you a familiar-sounding story. As a rookie back in 2016, Zach Eflin wasn’t good. There were 181 starting pitchers that year who threw at least 50 innings, and only two of them wound up with a lower strikeout rate than Eflin did. And then as a sophomore in 2017, Eflin wasn’t good. There were 189 starting pitchers that year who threw at least 50 innings, and only four of them wound up with a lower strikeout rate than Eflin did. Yes, there’s more to pitching in the major leagues than generating strikeouts, but Eflin didn’t have anything going in his favor. So he showed up to camp this past spring feeling especially optimistic. In February of 2018, Zach Eflin felt like he was in the best shape of his life.

Admittedly, the story had some substance. Eflin had felt knee pain for most of his life. After the 2016 season, he had surgery to repair the patella tendon in both of his legs. That was good for the pain, but bad for his strength. Eflin didn’t get to have a normal offseason, and he pitched while underweight. The idea this time around was that Eflin would be able to use his lower body. Over the winter, he added something like 20 pounds of muscle to his legs. It all sounded good. But then, best-shape stories always sound good. In the moment, it’s impossible to know who’s going to be better, and who’s going to be the same.

Well, Zach Eflin isn’t the same. He isn’t the same, for the reasons just stated. He’s got the same strikeout rate as Chris Archer. He’s got the same strikeout rate as Jose Quintana. He nearly has the same strikeout rate as Aaron Nola. Eflin is pitching to keep a rotation spot. But in the bigger picture, it’s like Eflin is debuting all over again. His career simply had a false start.

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Last week, San Diego Padres left-hander Jose Torres was suspended for 100 games for violating MLB’s Domestic Violence Policy. Torres represents the ninth major leaguer to be investigated under the policy and the seventh to be suspended since the policy took effect at the beginning of the 2016 season, joining Aroldis Chapman, Jose Reyes, Hector Olivera, Jeurys Familia, Derek Norris, and Steven Wright. And that list doesn’t include players like Addison Russell, who was accused of spousal abuse last year in divorce proceedings. Torres, currently on the restricted list, is awaiting trial on “[c]harges of assault with a deadly weapon and criminal damage” stemming from this incident:

According to the probable cause statement contained in the court report, Torres knocked a door off its hinges and punched a hole in another door. He also pointed the gun at the victim, according to the report.\

While MLB’s domestic-violence policy has served to punish offenders, it doesn’t seem to have had any effect on the number of domestic-violence incidents. After five investigations and four suspensions in 2016 – the first full year of the program – there was just one suspension issued in all of 2017. But this year, the numbers are back up, with three investigations and two suspensions already in 2018. And while those numbers may be relatively small, especially compared to PED suspensions, domestic violence is an entirely different animal because it is not, unlike PEDs, what might be termed a “victimless crime.” Domestic violence and domestic abuse have real victims who often suffer real — and often severe — physical and emotional injuries. And those injuries are inflicted on both women and children; children exposed to domestic violence are often scarred for the rest of their lives.

So the question is what, exactly, MLB’s policy is trying to accomplish here. Originally, the idea was that MLB would step into the gap in the criminal law that often protected professional athletes accused of domestic-violence incidents. From a piece by Ken Rosenthal:

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Sunday’s Mariners-Rays game in Tampa Bay ended in memorable fashion, with Seattle right fielder Mitch Haniger failing to make a sliding catch on Carlos Gomez’s bloop, mishandling the ball while attempting to pick it up, but recovering in time to throw home, where Johnny Field, who had been running on contact from first base, was out by a country mile. Catcher Mike Zunino could have paused to make an omelette between receiving the ball and applying the tag:

The play preserved the Mariners’ 5-4 lead and gave them not just their 41st victory of the season but their 21st in games decided by one run. With the Astros also winning, 8-7 over the Rangers, Seattle and Houston remained tied atop the AL West. If you haven’t been paying attention lately, the Mariners — while missing the suspended Robinson Cano and overcoming a 5.70 ERA/4.77 FIP from Felix Hernandez — have spent every day since June 2 with at least a share of the division lead. They’ve done this despite the fact that the Astros have by far the better run differential — the majors’ best, actually:

Now there’s something you just don’t see every day: two teams whose run differentials differ by more than 100 but are basically even in the standings. Those one-run games are the reason. The Astros, who would be on a 109-win pace if they had merely gone .500 in such games to this point, actually won a pair of ’em on Saturday and Sunday, but when it comes to such those contests, they’re still tied for the majors’ fourth-lowest winning percentage and fourth-lowest win total in one-run games. The Mariners, on the other hand, have five more one-run wins than any other team and eight more than any other AL team, though they’re merely third in winning percentage:

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Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the twelfth installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Matthew Boyd, Sam Gaviglio, and Hector Santiago —— on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

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Matthew Boyd (Tigers) on His Slider

“My slider has kind of evolved over the years. My junior year [at Oregon State], we had a rain delay at the University of Portland and I was playing catch out in front of the dugout. I asked Nate Yesky, our pitching coach, how to throw one. He taught me how he threw his.

“It turned into this big slurve. I kind of rode that my senior year — it was a big pitch for me — and once I got into pro ball it slowly tightened up. As the years went on, every coach on the Blue Jays worked with me on it, trying to make it more like a cutter. They wanted to make it more high 80s, closer to my fastball, but I could never really get to that pitch.

“I was still trying to figure it out when I got to the big leagues. It wasn’t very consistent. Rich Dubee really helped me out, trying to tighten it up. But again, it would come and go. It wasn’t until later in the year, last year, that it started getting tighter.

“This offseason, I threw with James Paxton a little bit and he showed me how he throws his. We obviously have a much different slider-cutter, but I threw it like his and from there it took on a shape of its own with my own delivery. It’s become a real weapon for me.

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It’s been a long time. I shouldn’t have left you without a strong book to read to.

Hi, everybody. Opening up this tab really put a smile on my face today. To be honest, I was a bit surprised my login still worked. I would have figured Appelman would have quietly flixed that glitch. He didn’t though, so here I am!

Back in January, when I stepped away from the site, I expressed my desire to form the FanGraphs Book Club. Many of you seemed highly receptive to that idea. In the spirit of saving you a click, here’s what I said:

I should also note that I’m not leaving completely, hence the “For Now” in the title. I titled it as such because David Appelman has graciously agreed to let me start the FanGraphs Book Club. We won’t begin right away — I need to get the store open first — but hopefully around the start of the regular season, I will be back, with the goal of hosting a chat once every four-to-six weeks, on a particular baseball book that we’ll choose together. The idea is that we’ll pick a new baseball book ahead of time, and that book will be available for purchase through my store — in person and online — at a discounted rate. Hopefully, we can have a lot of fun with it, the same way we always have had in the FanGraphs After Dark chats.

OK, so the “around the start of the regular season” part didn’t quite work out. Turns out there’s a lot of work involved with running a bookstore — who knew!?!?! — but I’m ready now. I think. Let’s just pretend I am, OK? Deal? Deal.

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As was documented on a number of occasions at this site during the winter months, the 2017-18 offseason represented the slowest free-agent market on record. While the economic implications of the offseason remain unclear, that’s not the only way in which the game was disrupted this winter. Because a number of players signed late, a number of players also benefited from something less than a full complement of spring-training games. Logic dictates that could have an effect on performance. But does the data support that logic?

We could attempt to answer that question by examining performances from just the first couple weeks of season — when late signees would still, hypothetically, be getting reacquainted with the speed of the game. There would so much randomness involved in such a study, though, it would be impossible to reach any real conclusion based on a handful players. It might not be entirely responsible to try and draw conclusions from two months’ worth of performances, either. As it stands, though, we at least have a larger sample with which to work — and if we considered production too far removed from spring, we might end up not testing the effect of missed time, at all.

Of the Top 50 Free Agents, 10 signed in March or later. One of those players, Greg Holland, is a reliever. We could compare Holland’s performance to the 15 other relievers, but I’m not sure that would be a worthwhile endeavor. Holland has made 18 appearances, only pitched 13.1 innings, and recorded 15 walks, 10 strikeouts, a 5.97 FIP, and a 9.45 ERA. His -1.52 WPA is the worst in the National League. I didn’t run the numbers, but suffice it to say, there’s no way the rest of the free-agent relievers have been as bad as Holland. You could chalk that up to a lack of spring training, but it might be more worthwhile to look at position players and starting pitchers.

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With two months of the minor-league season now complete and the draft also finished, it’s an appropriate time to publish a revised version of our preseason top-100 list. The list is below. Notes about methodology and specific players appear below that.

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