The Continuing Evolution of Justin Verlander

One of those baseball facts that might stick with me forever is that, after getting traded from the Mariners to the Astros, Randy Johnson put up a 1.something ERA. Specifically, including the playoffs, Johnson appeared in 13 games with Houston, and his ERA was 1.42. To be that dominant, in that era, under those circumstances, after having struggled before the deal — well, I don’t know what else there is to explain. I haven’t forgotten about it for 20 years. I’m sure I’ll remember for at least 20 years more.

We’re living in the middle of a similar fact. One that’s gone on longer, one that must be considered even more impressive. After getting traded from the Tigers to the Astros, Justin Verlander has put up a 1.something ERA. Specifically, including the playoffs, Verlander has appeared in 23 games with Houston, and his ERA is 1.36. In Verlander’s most recent start, against the Yankees, he allowed one run. That’s right on his season average — he’s allowed 12 runs over 12 starts. After allowing seven runs in the season’s first month, he allowed five in the second. Hitting Verlander of late has been more or less impossible.

Verlander was traded last summer, and was immediately good. We’ve already gone through a bunch of stories examining his turnaround, highlighting, especially, the improvement of his slider. That was a common conversation last fall — the one about how Verlander got better by making use of Houston’s slow-motion cameras. Yet Verlander only continues to grow. He remains, you could say, a work in progress, and he’s made a further adjustment in 2018 to get the most out of the pitches he has.

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The Astros’ Quiet Catching Advantage

CLEVELAND — In the seventh inning on Friday at Progressive Field, Astros starting catcher Brian McCann did not come out for his scheduled at-bat. Instead, fellow catcher Max Stassi appeared out of the third-base dugout as a pinch-hitter. Astros manager A.J. Hinch had elected to pinch-hit for his starting catcher with another catcher to face Indians left-hander Tyler Olson, owner of considerable splits. We don’t often see a manager pinch-hit for his starting catcher, but the decision worked: Stassi singled.

The Astros have not exactly made it a regular practice, but it was the eighth time they have pinch-hit with a catcher for a catcher this season in order to gain the platoon advantage. But the Astros are one of the teams that has regularly tried to do this with the left-handed McCann and right-handed Stassi and Evan Gattis. (With McCann going on the DL on Tuesday, the Astros’ aggressive catcher platooning will be placed on hold, probably.)

In an age where managers try to leverage handedness as often as possible, catchers have the lowest platoon advantage (41.4%) among all non-pitchers, according to research assistance from Sean Dolinar. Shortstop is next (42.8%) and is the only position that doesn’t enjoy a platoon advantage the majority of the time. What they share is status as specialized, glove-first positions:

Platoon Advantage by Position
Position PA Platoon Adv %
P 1572 40.1%
C 5883 41.4%
1B 6359 61.7%
2B 6328 60.8%
3B 6275 53.5%
SS 6173 42.8%
LF 6318 59.8%
CF 6244 51.9%
RF 6304 54.7%
DH 3137 50.7%
PH 1568 67.5%

If a club is looking for a position from which to extract more value by facing more opposite-handed pitchers, catcher is the untapped positional market.

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FanGraphs Audio: Nearly an Hour of Jay Jaffe

Episode 816
Jay Jaffe is progenitor of the very famous JAWS metric and also author of the reasonably famous The Cooperstown Casebook. On this edition of the program, he discusses Mike Trout’s legitimate Hall of Fame credentials, players who produced excellent early-career seasons but not similarly excellent overall years, and his evolving opinion of David Cone.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 52 min play time.)

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/30/18

12:03

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone coming to you live from rainy Orlando while I’m waist deep in scouting notes that will be showing up on THE BOARD soon. Here’s what we have at the moment: https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018mlb&type=0&pos=all…

12:03

Greg: What’s the upcoming mock schedule?

12:04

Kiley McDaniel: One on Thursday or Friday, then another on Monday

12:04

Larry: Would you still put Gorman as the most likely pick for Atlanta?

12:05

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, but there’s a growing sense that, with teams in their meetings and little details leaking out, that beyond the top 5-6 picks, there’s a lot of uncertainty, private workouts and shifting opinions. And some crazy rumors in the top 5 at teams price shopping to figure out what all their options are.

12:05

Tommy N.: Any late draft whispers for the Padres and their newly acquired bonus pool money? Less likely to go underslot at 7 now?

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The Manager’s Perspective: Bob Melvin on Umpires

Bob Melvin has plenty of experience interacting with umpires. The Oakland A’s skipper was a big-league catcher from 1985 to 1994, and he’s since gone on to manage 2,127 games over 15 MLB seasons. He knows what makes the men in blue tick, including what buttons can and can’t be pushed when arguing a call — an event which happens far less frequently since the introduction of replay review.

In the second installment of this series — we’re hearing from a different manager each week, generally focusing on a specific subject — Melvin talks about his relationship with umpires and the ways in which that dynamic has changed in recent years.

———

Bob Melvin: “I feel I have a good relationship with umpires. I was a catcher and you kind of build good relationships with umpires. Of course, since I’ve been managing, there has been some turnover — there are some younger guys I wasn’t with as a player — and you’re constantly trying to build relationships. You also have to hold them accountable and stick up for your team at times.

“You have to look at things from their shoes, too. They have a tough job, and there are certain days where you’re not as good as you can possibly be — I’m no different — so there is definitely a balance to strike. You have to hold them accountable but not go too far. I wouldn’t say there are any guys that I don’t get along with, to where you’d maybe see that in ejections.

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Anthony Rizzo, Joe Maddon, and the Dangerous Play

Over the last decade, Major League Baseball has taken steps to make the game safer for players on the field, not only instituting a seven-day disabled list for concussions but also crafting a pair of somewhat nuanced rules in order to avoid unnecessary collisions both on the pivot at second base and also at home plate.

On Monday, Anthony Rizzo seemed possibly to violate those rules, barreling to the plate in order to prevent Pirates catcher Elias Diaz from throwing to first to complete a double play. Rizzo ultimately succeeded: his collision with Diaz caused an errant throw, allowing two runners to score and turning a likely Cubs victory into a sure thing as the team went up 5-0 in eighth inning.

Did Rizzo actually do anything wrong, though? To answer that question, we actually have to consider two separate rules. To begin, let’s go with MLB’s slide rule first. The rule addresses the allowable — or, as they call it, bona fide — slide, which requires that a runner:

  1. Begins his slide (i.e., makes contact with the ground) before reaching the base;
  2. is able and attempts to reach the base with his hand or foot;
  3. is able and attempts to remain on the base (except home plate) after completion of the slide; and
  4. slides within reach of the base without changing his pathway for the purpose of initiating contact with a fielder.

Here is Rizzo’s slide.

https://gfycat.com/HatefulAgonizingAustralianfreshwatercrocodile

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Finding the Next Edwin Díaz

This is Jake Mailhot’s fourth post as part of his May Residency at FanGraphs. A lifelong Mariners fan, Jake now lives in Bellingham, Washington, just a little too far away from Seattle to make it to games regularly, which is sometimes for the best. He is a staff editor at Mariners blog Lookout Landing. He can be found on Twitter at @jakemailhot. Read the works of all our residents here.

Among the various career arcs in professional baseball, the conversion from starting pitcher to reliever is one of the more common ones. It’s a last resort for aging veterans and a tried-and-true way to get the most out of middling starters. But when a talented prospect is moved to the bullpen, there are bound to be questions. It has been generally understood that a starting pitcher is more valuable than a relief pitcher, so teams are usually more conservative with their prospects, often letting them at least try to work things out as a starter before pulling the plug. But in an era when relievers are throwing more innings than ever before, a high-octane reliever might prove to be more valuable than just another starter.

Back in 2016, the Mariners moved one of their best pitching prospects from the rotation to the bullpen. Edwin Díaz took to the conversion quickly and was in the majors a few weeks later, completely skipping Triple-A. He was soon installed as the Mariners closer and has been one of the best relievers in the majors since. His already excellent fastball velocity received the usual boost from shorter stints on the mound, and his slider has developed into a plus-plus pitch.

It was a risky move for the Mariners. Instead of letting the 22-year-old try to develop his changeup in the rotation, they shifted him to the bullpen and aggressively promoted him because the major-league team needed bullpen help desperately.

I wondered if any other teams had tried something similar. Below you’ll see the results of a very specific query: every relief pitcher who has thrown at least 10 innings in the majors and had been a starting pitcher in the minors as recently as last year. To narrow the field even further, these pitchers all recorded fewer than five innings pitched in Triple-A and have posted an average leverage index greater than 1.25 when entering the game.

Recently Converted Minor-League Starters
Name IP K% BB% ERA FIP
Jordan Hicks 27.2 14.2% 14.2% 1.63 4.02
Brad Keller 22.1 14.6% 7.9% 2.01 3.46
Justin Anderson 15.2 30.9% 13.2% 3.45 4.20
Seranthony Domínguez 11.2 35.1% 0.0% 0.00 1.14

It’s an interesting list. Jordan Hicks, the man with the fastest fastball in all the land, sits atop it with almost 27 innings pitched and just 16 strikeouts to his name. Then we have a Rule 5 pick, Brad Keller, who has recently been in the mix for high-leverage innings in the Royals bullpen. Moving on. Justin Anderson wasn’t a highly regarded pitching prospect in the Angels organization, but he has added more than 6 mph to his average fastball velocity out of the pen and given Mike Scioscia another option in his constant closer carousel. This article was almost about Anderson. But the final name on the list is far more intriguing — and not just because of his 80-grade baseball name.

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The Throwbacks Among Us

I imagine you already know that big-league hitters in 2018 strike out an awful lot more than big-league hitters in 2008 did. You could probably guess, too, that they hit for a somewhat lower average and a little less power. Even though some of that power differential will even out as the weather heats up this summer — we’re not exactly comparing apples to apples, here — I think it’s a relatively uncontroversial opinion to say that the game has changed in the past decade:

MLB Hitters, 2008 and 2018
Year BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG
2008 8.7% 17.5% 0.152 0.300 0.264 0.333 0.416
2018 8.8% 22.5% 0.160 0.293 0.245 0.317 0.405
2018 stats through games played 5/27/18.

Furthermore, those changes in the way the game is played have forced us to adjust our understanding of what good, bad, and decent performances look like. We have had to reconcile ourselves to the notion that, although just 20 qualified hitters struck out more than 22.5% of the time in 2008, 50 are above that mark right now, and another 40 or so finished above it last year in a full season’s worth of data. Striking out nearly a quarter of the time doesn’t make a hitter an outlier anymore, and we’ve had to adjust our internal expectations for player performance accordingly.

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How Shohei Ohtani Could Help the Angels’ Platoon Problem

Every bit of value counts for the Angels, who share a division with probably the majors’ best team and who possess a 29.9% chance of making the postseason as of right now. Even slight improvement would be more meaningful to the Angels than most teams. And there’s perhaps a way the Angels can better employ the game’s most interesting and only two-way player in Shohei Ohtani to gain a little more value.

The Angels rank dead last in platoon advantage, their batters facing opposite-handed pitchers just 37% of the time, according Baseball Reference. The MLB average is 53%. The Indians, thanks in large part to switch-hitting stars Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, lead baseball in holding the platoon advantage at a 69% clip.

The Angels have recorded the most right-on-right plate appearances (1,207) of any club this year, with the Astros representing the next-closest team (1,075).

Despite their right-handed-heavy lineup, the Angels actually rank second in baseball in right-on-right wRC+ (123) and ranked fifth last season (101). Having Mike Trout helps paper over many cracks — including platoon disadvantages — but there are only three Angels regulars who are better than league average against righties: Trout, Andrelton Simmons, and Justin Upton. As a whole, the Angels rank third against righties with a 109 wRC+, while they ranked in the middle of the pack with a wRC+ of 98 versus them last season.

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Introducing the 2018 MLB Draft Board

Today we’ve rolled out the 2018 MLB Draft version of THE BOARD, but rather than just point you to an article explaining how the minor-league version works, we’ll take a second to go over the differences between the draft and minor-league versions.

Obviously, the amount of information we have for these players is different than what we have on minor leaguers, so we think the presentation of our information should reflect that reality. While you can look at a pro prospect’s stat line and get a quick idea of how advanced they are, amateur stats (particularly outside of the top couple college conferences) often don’t tell a coherent story. This, along with the varying types of prospects in the draft, means that we need to be more specific about the indicators of projection rather than just our median tool grades. We capture that, in the minor leagues, with ‘variance’; for amateur players, however, we felt we needed more detail so that it’s not necessary to memorize every report to quickly compare players.

This is manifested in the columns marked Athleticism, Frame, Performance, and Delivery. All four apply to pitchers and the first three apply to hitters. Every player is graded on a five-point scale of either —, -, +, ++ or neutral (blank). In addition to age and some other factors not captured here, these factors are influential for us when attempting to craft the rankings. It should help better establish, at a reader’s glance, the relative strengths and weaknesses of each player. Sometimes that’s necessary, as the tool grades often end up so close to 50 that it’s hard to differentiate these players without breaking down mechanics on video or memorizing all the small separators in our reports. This also more closely mirrors how big league draft rooms work, with selective categories (like 95+ mph fastball, scoring well on a mental skills test, etc.) getting their own stickers put on specific draft magnets so that separating qualities beyond tools can be identified more quickly after the first few rounds.

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