FanGraphs Baseball

Arizona Fall League Pitcher Scouting Notebook

October 12, 2026

Jarlin Susana Photo: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

I’m rolling out a bunch of notes from my recent trip to Arizona. Last week, I wrote about some of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League, as well as a few backfields standouts for the Royals, Giants, and Padres. Today, we’ll dive into some of the pitchers from the AFL.

Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals

Susana has one of the strongest arms in professional baseball. The big righty sits 101-103, and generates it with a low-to-moderate effort delivery. For all its velo, Susana’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing shape, and even the Fall Leaguers he faced were generally able to get the bat on the ball. His feel for release was off to start the game, and he frequently missed up early in the outing. Hitters couldn’t barrel it in the zone, though, and that will likely continue to be the case for Susana as long as he’s able to live anywhere near that velocity band.

Susana worked with two breaking balls. He used an occasional upper-80s slider, usually just as a way to get hitters off his primary secondary, a mid-80s sweeper. There aren’t a lot of guys who can get 15 inches of break on an 85-mph sweeper, but few pitchers have Susana’s arm talent. Read the rest of this entry »

Postseason Manager Report Card: Craig Stammen

by Jon Becker

October 12, 2026

While his season ended with a sour taste, having been bounced from the playoffs by the Brewers in the NLDS, it’d be hard to argue that Craig Stammen’s first season as Padres skipper was anything but a success, with 91 wins plus a Wild Card series victory over the Cubs. Now that his season is over, I’m back to the grade book to give Stammen a report card for his postseason performance in the six games he managed.

I’ll once again remind you, as Ben Clemens also will for his report cards for the AL managers, that I care about process and not results here. It’s easy to say, “That was a great move because it worked,” or “That was a bad move because it failed,” but managers obviously can’t know the results of their decisions as they’re making them. I’ve tried my best to transport myself back to the moment of each decision — taking into account the pitches, innings, and plate appearances that led up to it — while ignoring its outcome.

Before we get into the grades, I’ll also re-reiterate that while these are ostensibly manager report cards, there’s a much larger group of people behind the manager that helps to inform his decisions. Before the game, that includes discussions with the front office, which provides the reams of data that every manager has at his disposal during play. During the game, he’s getting feedback from his coaching staff and players on their levels of health and readiness. It really does take a village to get through a baseball game, and realistically, the praise and scorn doesn’t belong to the manager alone. Read the rest of this entry »

Postseason Managerial Report Card: Aaron Boone

by Ben Clemens

October 12, 2026

Every October, FanGraphs grades each playoff manager. We focus on their in-game decisions, because a lot of the most important parts of the job – things like keeping players ready to go and making sure relievers understand their roles so they know when they might be deployed – aren’t always visible to us from the outside looking in. A lot of what managers do never reaches the public eye. These report cards focus on the remainder of their decisions, the ones that come when the lights are bright and the game is on the line.

We attempt to evaluate those decisions based on process, not results. A pitching change isn’t necessarily bad because the reliever who comes in gets shelled, or good because he gets out of a jam. That’s not to say it can’t be a bad decision – if you bring in a mop-up man in a high-leverage spot, or let your righty specialist face Ben Rice, you made the wrong call. But we’re interested in the before, in what we could expect to happen when a manager makes a pitching change or calls on a pinch-hitter. It isn’t good to completely ignore results, but it’s also bad to fixate on them, and it’s my hope that our report cards strike the right balance.

Earlier this month, Jon Becker wrote up the four managers who lost in the Wild Card round. This week, we’re adding the Division Series losers to the mix. First up: Aaron Boone and the Yankees. Read the rest of this entry »

2026 ALCS Preview: Rays Face Guardians in Battle of the Tight Budgets

by Jay Jaffe

October 12, 2026

Kim Klement Neitzel and Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Rebounding from two sub-.500 seasons, the Rays won an American League-high 98 games, and took home their first AL East title since 2021. They followed that with an impressive three-game Division Series sweep of the Yankees, highlighted by Drew Rasmussen’s 7 2/3 no-hit innings in Game 1, a contact frenzy that exposed the Yankees’ shoddy infield defense and hastened ace Cam Schlittler’s exit in Game 2, and a timely two-run homer by rookie Victor Mesa Jr. in Game 3. That sweep marked the Rays’ first postseason series victory since 2020, when they outlasted the Astros in a seven-game ALCS to claim their second pennant in franchise history. After bowing to the Dodgers in that World Series, they made the playoffs in each of the next three seasons but went just 1-7 in those games, including a 2022 Wild Card Series sweep by the Terry Francona-managed Guardians. Rays manager Kevin Cash and designated hitter Yandy Díaz are the only principals left from the 2020 pennant-winners. This really is a new era in Tampa Bay baseball.

For their part, the Guardians spent a good chunk of the summer drafting behind the upstart White Sox in the AL Central race before sneaking into first place in mid-September and finishing one game ahead of their rivals at 85-77. They came from behind again versus Chicago during the ALDS, becoming the fourth team to lose the first two games of a five-game series at home but win three straight elimination games to capture the series. After being called upon to close out Game 4 with a four-run lead (a bit of overkill), Gavin Williams threw 5 2/3 innings of one-hit ball and struck out 12 on just one day of rest, while José Ramírez shook off an injury-related slump to homer in Games 4 and 5; his two-run shot off an ankle-high pitch in the finale was all the scoring Cleveland needed. Against the whiff-prone White Sox, Guardians pitchers set and then broke the postseason strikeout record for a nine-inning game, with 19 strikeouts in Game 3 and then 21 in Game 5. This is Cleveland’s third straight trip to the postseason under manager Stephen Vogt, and its second time to the ALCS in that span; the Guards lost to the Yankees in 2024.

Particularly given the contrast between the big-spending Dodgers and the more frugal Brewers in the NLCS, expect much to be made of an ALCS matchup featuring the teams ranked 29th and 28th in payroll, with Cleveland ($87 million) slightly outspent by Tampa Bay ($90 million). Both are ultra resourceful teams whose front offices are among the game’s most analytically inclined, though they’re built differently, with the Guardians heavily reliant on homegrown talent, while the Rays have largely leaned on smart trades to fill out their roster. In fact, deals with the Guardians brought the Rays Díaz in 2018 and third baseman Junior Caminero in ’21, the latter when he was an 18-year-old coming off his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s Brewtal Out There: Milwaukee Takes Game 1

by Michael Baumann

October 12, 2026

Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

MILWAUKEE — A year ago, the Dodgers came to Milwaukee as the lower seed in the NLCS and blew the doors off the Brewers. Milwaukee scored four runs, total, in a four-game sweep. Both teams’ rosters have evolved, and individual players have changed for better (Jacob Misiorowski) or worse (Shohei Ohtani), but what could possibly be so different this time around? As Dan Szymborski wrote in his series preview, teams that get beat in a playoff series are 17-28 all-time when afforded a rematch the following year. Teams that get swept are 0-5.

Well, at least one thing’s different: The Brewers aren’t going to get swept this time. They checked off the hardest item on their to-do list — beat Tarik Skubal — right away, with a 2-1 win at a sold-out American Family Field. Misiorowski made hard work of his 4 1/3-inning stint, but some terrific infield defense allowed him to escape with a single run on the board, and a solo homer by Brice Turang preceded an RBI single by Luis Lara an inning later. After another four innings, the Brewers had taken Round 1. Read the rest of this entry »

Members-Only Game Thread: NLCS – Dodgers vs Brewers – Oct 11, 2026

by Sean Dolinar

October 11, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the NLCS game today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Dodgers play the Brewers! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.

Jon Becker 7:47 PM

Hi everyone!

Sean Dolinar 7:52 PM

Hey Jon!

Michael Baumann 7:55 PM

Hello from the press box at AmFam

Michael Baumann 7:55 PM

I just wanted to wish you both good luck, we're all counting on you

Jon Becker 7:57 PM

How's the press box food up there, Baumann?

Michael Baumann 7:59 PM

It's the voucher-and-fend-for-yourself system, unfortch

Michael Baumann 8:00 PM

at the workout day yesterday they did have pizza in the media dining room, which saved me from a hypoglycemic emergency, as I hadn't eaten anything since I left for the airport at 7 a.m.

brewersbibliophile 8:01 PM

Checking in from section 419. Go Brewers! Sad to miss out on EW chat

Michael Baumann 8:02 PM

They had a real bald eagle flapping by the Dodgers dugout. It's funny to think about how we imbue this animal with such weighty symbolic meaning and you look at one and it's clearly just thinking "Fish?"

Sean Dolinar 8:03 PM

How is Milwaukee? It’s one of the few cities I haven’t been to.

brewersbibliophile 8:03 PM

Is that why Mike Trout won’t play in an LCS?

Michael Baumann 8:05 PM

I love Milwaukee. I love just about every medium-sized Midwestern city and even within that context Milwaukee is one of my favorites

Sean Dolinar 8:07 PM

Is Pittsburgh on that list

Michael Baumann 8:08 PM

I like Pittsburgh, the thing is if you stay there for more than a day you start running into Steelers fans and it ruins the vibe for me

DavidRifkin 8:08 PM edited

find that most football fans of a particular city are not actually urbanites

bosoxforlife 8:09 PM

Pittsburgh is most definitely on my list. PNC Park from the Clemente Bridge is locked in my memory for eternity.

Sæder 8:11 PM

This chat box tech is a major upgrade from the one i saw during the wild card games. Well done folks and thank you!

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:16 PM

I know we get a marquee SP matchup every October, but this one feels extra fun

Jon Becker 8:17 PM

What in the world is this camera angle, respectfully

bosoxforlife 8:18 PM

major league play!!!!

Sean Dolinar 8:19 PM

Is this angle a Fox thing, not a a MIL park thing?

Jon Becker 8:20 PM

I think just a FOX thing

Jon Becker 8:20 PM

Usually a good angle there

Sean Dolinar 8:19 PM

Is this angle a Fox thing, not a a MIL park thing?

Jon Becker 8:19 PM

Not a fan of this new score bug either

Sean Dolinar 8:21 PM

I feel like the networks still think this is better for the average viewer.

Gregg 8:21 PM

Perhaps this is more of question to ask the Baseball Savant people, but I think it's inevitable that we get "arm velocity" data from pitchers. It's fascinating to me what the relationship between pitch velocity is with arm velocity + torque. Do we (royal we) understand mechanically everything about how pitch velocity is generated?

bosoxforlife 8:22 PM

Part of last night's chat included over-used baseball cliches. I would like to add "Tailor-made double play" to that list.

Michael Baumann 8:23 PM

Just for you, I'm going to call that a "bespoke" double play in my gamer tonight

Sæder 8:24 PM

And I would add to that: "[Pitcher] struggles in the first inning"… yes, the highest scoring inning on average across all games

Sean Dolinar 8:28 PM

Jon has used bespoke non-stop in our dev meetings.

Matt Martell 8:24 PM

The Polymarket commercial clearly used The Wolf of Wall Street in-office party scenes, with the marching band and all, as inspiration, and I think that's more on the zone that they think it is

Michael Baumann 8:25 PM

this guy said "on the zone"

Matt Martell 8:26 PM

I did, and I'm leaving it as is

Matt Martell 8:25 PM

Also, hi

docgooden85 8:25 PM

Lara in RF. Thats some serious OF defense for the Brewers tonight.

Jon Becker 8:26 PM

Hi Matt 🙂

Jon Becker 8:26 PM

Matt saw Digger today, everyone

Matt Martell 8:27 PM

Guys, go see Digger. It's very good. Don't let the haters prevent you from having a great time

Sæder 8:28 PM

I'm already iffy on Inarritu so i've been hesitant

Matt Martell 8:33 PM

I am also iffy on Iñárrritu, but this is different. If I came in blind, without knowing who made it, my best guess would've been Wes Anderson.

Sæder 8:33 PM

ah! the other guy im iffy on lol. But I am happy to hear that someone enjoyed it. It's done so poorly which is a shame

Sæder 8:40 PM

Don't mean to be a hater. But I went from being an angsty teen loving Rushmore and Tenenbaums to absolutely hating French Dispatch. I can't watch anymore

Matt Martell 8:27 PM

It's also a baseball movie

Michael Baumann 8:29 PM

You will not see two plays that look the same on the scoresheet yet look so different in real life as the 4-3 groundouts in the top and bottom of the first inning

GammaDraconis 8:29 PM

Tonight we find out how much the Brewers will regret not getting Skubal for themselves, but, man, what a pitching matchup!

bosoxforlife 8:31 PM

He would have cost them too much. The Brewers understand where to put their money and their prospects.

GammaDraconis 8:33 PM

There's the cost in prospects and there's the cost in World Series opportunities.

darksheep 8:33 PM

Tomorrow would be more indicative because it would have cost Hendo.

docgooden85 8:31 PM

Ohtani hitting weak grounders in the batting cage doesn't inspire confidence.

Lanenator 8:35 PM

If Miz had existed towards the beginning of the foundation of baseball and was out there sitting 100+, what are the odds that he would have been accused of witchcraft?

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:35 PM

We really need less ump cam mid-pitch

bosoxforlife 8:35 PM

Miz isn't looking too sharp in the early going.

wenz 8:37 PM

I wonder if we'll eventually learn that early challenges are good because they correct a bad zone for the rest of the game

bosoxforlife 8:37 PM

I can barely make out the fake zone but a couple of those pitches looked good.

Anonymous Member #46 8:42 PM

I wonder if LCS/World Series umps are more likely to have a tight zone in the playoffs than they do themselves in the regular season.

Sean Dolinar 8:49 PM

I can't see the umps changing anything, with all the scrutiny in the ABS era. Which, it is still remarkable how good most of those umps are.

Anonymous Member #46 9:09 PM edited

(comment didn't thread right)

Phil 8:42 PM

Does the poll refer to who will win this game or who will win the series? I am fascinated that it is leaning MIL (I voted that way but felt I was going out on a limb).

bosoxforlife 8:44 PM

Is this an unusually low percentage of whiffs on Misiorowski's stuff? It seems that way to me.

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:44 PM

What an at-bat from Tucker here

Doug Lampert 8:44 PM

I assumed series and went Dodgers, game, I'd probably have picked the Brewers till the Dodgers scored.

Doug Lampert 8:45 PM

Need to remember that I can reply on these things rather than just post.

bosoxforlife 8:46 PM

It is for the game.

brewersbibliophile 8:45 PM

I assumed it was for the game.

Jon Becker 8:45 PM

They are sorta getting there by talking about all the foul balls but the broadcast hasn't really said anything about Miz being down a lot of fastball carry today (not that I really expect them to)

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:47 PM

What would cause vert to be worse while maintaining velocity? Mechanics, wrist torque, something else?

Jon Becker 8:47 PM

Spin axis, which I believe is largely about hand position

Davy Andrews 8:47 PM

Hello, baseball friends. My daughter is asleep, so I am watching the game and making mini waffles for dinner.

Sean Dolinar 8:50 PM

Leggo my Eggo!

bosoxforlife 8:51 PM

I thought the umpires were better earlier in the year but when they realized the hitters were being told not to challenge they are back to calling a lot of balls strikes.

docgooden85 8:47 PM

The runners on 2B are doing a lot of signaling

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:47 PM

Pages does this fairly often

Anonymous Member #46 8:48 PM

Teoscar was too.

Jon Becker 8:48 PM

Broadcast hasn't said a single thing about that either

Sæder 8:48 PM

Tailor made double play

Matt Martell 8:48 PM

brb going to the store to get mini waffles now

Jon Becker 8:49 PM

That was a disjointed as hell double play

Jon Becker 8:49 PM edited

Could've gone wrong three different times

Davy Andrews 8:49 PM

I mean, I have more than enough batter over here.

Jon Becker 8:49 PM

— Dave Roberts making a lineup

brewersbibliophile 8:49 PM

Pocket pancakes or bust

Davy Andrews 8:50 PM

I forgot about that! How can he not win MoY?

Matt Martell 8:49 PM

and by get mini waffles i mean edit Jay's ALCS preview for tomorrow

Michael Baumann 8:50 PM

I'm trying not to get hyperbolic, but that janky-ass double play could end up being the turning point in the series

Sean Dolinar 8:51 PM

You have it in writing. You can reference this in Game 5/6.

Jon Becker 8:51 PM

Acuña Kalshi commercial oh BROTHER

brewersbibliophile 8:51 PM

I think Jake Bauers uses his walk up music to put the defense to sleep

comradeyurika 8:51 PM

Getting out of that with only one run is a massive swing

Michael Baumann 8:51 PM

Enrique has lost several steps since his youth, but did he swing by CVS on his way to first?

Jon Becker 8:52 PM

He had to get mini waffles

Davy Andrews 8:52 PM

Update: Mini waffles are so good. I'm so happy I did this.

Jon Becker 8:53 PM

Wait do you have a mini waffle maker?

Jon Becker 8:53 PM

Or were these frozen

Michael Baumann 8:53 PM

I'm really asking, I'm sitting directly behind the storage point for the folded-up press box window so anything that happens to the right of second base I'm hearing about secondhand

Anonymous Member #46 8:53 PM

The possibly superior syrup ratio cannot be worth the fourfold increase in cook time.

bosoxforlife 8:55 PM

Waffles are great with pure New England maple syrup straight from the Sugar House.

Matt Martell 8:56 PM

We all need to acknowledge that @brewersbibliophile is at the game and participating in this chat. Our Members are the best

Davy Andrews 8:58 PM

Legend.

brewersbibliophile 8:58 PM

I feel like I should be told to put my phone away

Davy Andrews 8:59 PM

We'll tell you what commercials you're missing so you get the full experience.

brewersbibliophile 9:00 PM

Kalshi, followed by DraftKings, followed by whatever Sydney Sweeney is selling I assume

Sean Dolinar 9:01 PM

I need to ship a mobile apupdate. Need to finish it first. But it makes this easier.

Sæder 8:56 PM

WOW

Davy Andrews 8:57 PM

These are from scratch. I would love it if they were regular waffles, but we don't have a regular waffle maker. We have this tiny one that makes heart-shaped mini waffles that my wife got for her friend's bachelorette party a few years ago. So I get one tiny waffle every 90 seconds or so, and I am constitutionally incapable of waiting and eating a bunch of waffles at once. I just eat them as soon as they come out.

Doug Lampert 9:00 PM

Waiting to build up a bunch at once would defeat the point. Fresh waffles should be eaten fresh.

Michael Baumann 8:58 PM

Making tiny heart-shaped mini waffles with batter made from scratch is the most Davy Andrews activity I've ever heard of

Davy Andrews 9:00 PM

I…cannot argue with that.

Anonymous Member #46 9:01 PM

not until the single comes out about this

Phil 9:00 PM

This might be more of a mailbag question, but am I correct in assuming that, by Fangraphs playoff odds, the Dodgers in this series are the most favored lower-seeded team ever?

Michael Baumann 9:04 PM

I don't know about that, but the number PECOTA spit out for this series is one I did not think it was possible for a projection system to produce in any series, let alone in favor of the road team in a series against a 103-win team

Sean Dolinar 9:07 PM

That's definitely something we could compile. Might have to join a few things to get the dates rights for series start dates.

Davy Andrews 9:14 PM

I will be happy to answer it if somebody else is doing all the work.

Davy Andrews 9:02 PM

Fox LOVES to talk about pitcher extension and stride length. I wonder why that's the one metric they care so much about.

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:04 PM

It's a metric that's easy to showcase on TV

Davy Andrews 9:05 PM

No doubt, but I think you could make cool graphics for a bunch of Statcast measurements.

docgooden85 9:05 PM

Freddie wasn't ready (for that 2 strike pitch)

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:05 PM

Camera angle made that curve look like a changeup

Sæder 9:06 PM

i'm just hearing Alec Guinness' voice in my head… "Lara"

Michael Baumann 9:07 PM

See, Matt? This is the good stuff

Matt Martell 9:09 PM

This is very good

Sæder 9:14 PM

we need to tell him got get balalaikas for his entrance music

Benjamin 9:07 PM

Why do they keep showing drone shots from behind the lights, it's utterly pointless

darksheep 9:10 PM

Been a part of the Brewers broadcast all season

docgooden85 9:08 PM

Incredible challenge for Contreras the Younger there

sloejoe 9:14 PM

I just did an internet search on "Front Row Amy" and the back stop seats at American Ball Park. $245 per seat. 81 games. About $20,000 per season. This is my math contribution to Fangraphs this year.

bosoxforlife 9:16 PM

Would it have been possible for Skubal to win a Cy Young if he had compiled a great resume between the two leagues?

Benny The Jet 9:18 PM

CC came close in 08… I believe Rick Sutcliff did it, though they only count stats in one league or the other

Jay Jaffe 9:19 PM

I think it would be nearly impossible because the AL and NL Cy Youngs are voted upon separately, and while he was excellent, he wasn't overwhelming in his stint in either league.

Jay Jaffe 9:20 PM

Sutcliffe's numbers did have a pretty massive contrast between AL and NL, which helped his cause.

Jay Jaffe 9:21 PM

And Dwight Gooden got screwed because Sutcliffe went 16-1 with about 2/3 the innings of Gooden

Benny The Jet 9:22 PM

Thanks Jay! Think the bigger question is probably whether a pitcher could get enough volume these days in half a season, plus I'm not even sure if <100 innings of ~1.00 ERA pitching would be enough with the resistance to giving the Cy to relievers

brewersbibliophile 9:24 PM

With starters getting less and less innings, I could see someone like Sabathia getting the Cy Young if they have a run like he had in ‘08

Jay Jaffe 9:18 PM

Hey folks, just popping in here for a bit

Sean Dolinar 9:24 PM

You're a pop-in guy?

docgooden85 9:18 PM

Derek Jeter doesn't need Polymarket's money. Classy! /s

jonmberra 9:19 PM

The Brewers keep living up to their postseason reputation

bosoxforlife 9:22 PM

I forgot Sutcliffe's 1984. Thanks Benny and nice catch

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:24 PM

What in the world?

Matt Martell 9:25 PM

There's a slight flinch of Miz's front leg before he steps off

docgooden85 9:25 PM

I don't understand what Miz did wrong.

brewersbibliophile 9:25 PM

Was that called a balk?

Matt Martell 9:25 PM

That's a great call

Matt Martell 9:25 PM

Yes, called a balk

Benny The Jet 9:25 PM

Made me think of an interesting question: what's the fewest games a pitcher could start and win the Cy Young if they somehow literally threw a perfect game every start? Like Brenden Fraser in The Scout, 27 up, 27 down, 27 Ks… would 3 be enough?

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:26 PM

That's 27 perfect innin\gs, I feel like you'd need a couple more games?

Anonymous Member #46 9:26 PM

However many Eric Gagne had when he won his Cy Young.

Matt Martell 9:26 PM

Send it to the Mailbag!

Jay Jaffe 9:26 PM

wow, that's a break for the Dodgers, Teoscar is not the guy I want stealing a base

Matt Martell 9:26 PM

Miz's front leg moved first. He began to lift his front leg slightly, the equivalent of a false start in football.

Phil 9:28 PM

Send him back out for the fifth, or no?

bosoxforlife 9:29 PM

I doubt it. It isn't like he is lights out tonight.

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:30 PM

Guessing they go with Patrick

brewersbibliophile 9:30 PM

A wild Charlie Berens has appeared!

brewersbibliophile 9:31 PM

Turang!

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:31 PM

Swear word!

Phil 9:31 PM

bosoxforlife 9:32 PM

Szymborski touted Turang in the spring and he was spot on.

Jay Jaffe 9:33 PM

I guess I'd have been surprised if you told me the Dodgers would get the first hit with runners in scoring position in this series while the Brewers chalked up the first homer

John Church 9:33 PM

Can’t predict baseball, Suzyn

Sean Dolinar 9:33 PM

Re: favored lower seed. This isn't exhaustive, but THIS isn't the most lopped sided. Because the Dodgers happen to face the Brewers in the NLCS quite often as the lower seed.

Sean Dolinar 9:34 PM

2018: 71.3% https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-1…

Phil 9:36 PM

Wow. That's pretty extreme.

Phil 9:36 PM

Also, I had no ides the Astros were favored in the ALCS. The Benintendi series.

Sean Dolinar 9:36 PM

2025: 70.6% https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2025-1…

Phil 9:37 PM

I did wonder about last year.

Sean Dolinar 9:37 PM

2026: 70.3% https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2026-1…

Sæder 9:37 PM

ready-to-wear double play!

Sean Dolinar 9:37 PM

Now, these are saved from the previous night and we could have updated depth charts the day of.

Phil 9:38 PM

Thanks, Sean! Very interesting.

Sean Dolinar 9:38 PM

But these three match ups are by far the most extreme from my quick search.

Sean Dolinar 9:39 PM

Also think it's amazing that the Brewers have played the Dodgers three times in the NLCS as the higher seed.

brewersbibliophile 9:41 PM

They’re bound to win one of them, right?

Sæder 9:42 PM edited

nice vaguely remembering that 2018 side. Yelich and Lorenzo Cain! and Hader!

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:44 PM

I remember that team for Jhoulys Chacin haha

Sean Dolinar 9:46 PM

@brewersbibliophile: past performance is not indicative of future results

Benny The Jet 9:46 PM

I remember getting a jump scare when some kids named Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta were starting play-off games… I was expecting Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley, and Chase Anderson lol

pgburant 9:46 PM edited

All Brewers fans will remember that Brandon Woodruff hit a home runoff Kershaw in that 2018 series

Sæder 9:46 PM

is it odd to say that the 2018 LAD squad was more "home-grown" or "diamonds in the rough," led by Grandal and Muncy; than the 2018 MIL team that had acquired Yelich and Cain?

Davy Andrews 9:46 PM

Has anybody watched that show Doc? The one where the doctor has amnesia but is somehow allowed to keep practicing medicine? Seems like a flawed conceit, right?

Dan Szymborski 9:46 PM

DL Hall sounds like someone who writes obnoxious Slate articles

Davy Andrews 9:47 PM edited

Did you read the one where the guy reached out to all the commenters who were mean to him and asked why?

Phil 9:48 PM

I did read that one. There was a couple that met in the comments.

Jay Jaffe 9:49 PM

I keep thinking DL Hall is the famous poet who wrote the book Dock Ellis In the Country of Baseball, but that was Donald Hall. I think it's because my favorite high school teacher was DL and his real name was Donald.

Davy Andrews 9:49 PM

Wait, they fell in love through hating on that one writer?

Phil 9:50 PM

I am not sure it was his stories specifically. But hating on Slate, yes.

Davy Andrews 9:51 PM

Let me just say this right now: If anybody falls in love during this chat and ends up getting married, I will bake your wedding cake.

Sæder 9:51 PM

full sized? or mini heart shaped?

Davy Andrews 9:52 PM

Full-sized cake, decorated on the outside with mini-heart waffles.

Dan Szymborski 9:46 PM

I'm against shows that just say what they are. Doc. FBI.

Davy Andrews 9:47 PM

The Office?

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:47 PM

Chris Taylor-made double play!

Dan Szymborski 9:47 PM

Bailin' out the Miz

Phil 9:48 PM

A Fred Astaire classic.

Dan Szymborski 9:48 PM

Like I've never watched the show, but Harlan Coben's Final Twist is a good name for a tv show

bosoxforlife 9:48 PM

Cliche alert! That was The Pitcher's Best Friend".

Dan Szymborski 9:49 PM

I also don't like the name Sheriff Country because fire country is a thing, but like everywhere has sheriffs. It makes as much sense as Police Country or Government Country

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:49 PM edited

Where does "Severance" rate on the Szym TV show name scale?

Dan Szymborski 9:49 PM

The show's fine but I want better names!

Dan Szymborski 9:50 PM

I don't want a burger from Burger. I don't want a car called The Vehicle.

Sæder 9:51 PM

except for legit ethnic diaspora restaurants. I was once sent by a Beijing-origin pal to a peking duck restaurant called Tasty Duck. It was fantastic.

fuzwoz 9:50 PM

So Miz looks like Lars Ulrich's grandson, right?

Dan Szymborski 9:51 PM

I need to check the archives, but is Skubal's butt getting a little bigger every year while the rest of him stays the same size?

Anonymous Member #46 9:52 PM

what a bum

Jay Jaffe 9:53 PM

Do we archive butt size now?

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:54 PM edited

Statcast has a metric called xwoButt

Dan Szymborski 9:53 PM

LARACIOUS

Davy Andrews 9:53 PM

SpectacuLARA.

Sæder 9:53 PM

yowza

Dan Szymborski 9:53 PM

I mean like videos

Dan Szymborski 9:53 PM

Though I bet statcast has ass size somewhere

Dan Szymborski 9:54 PM

dang that's way better

Davy Andrews 9:54 PM

I'm sure Baumann will top us both.

comradeyurika 9:54 PM

I thought that was a terrible spot to bunt, so of course it immediately works out.

bosoxforlife 9:55 PM

Of course! Everyone here at Fangraphs knows the sacrifice is a terrible play.

comradeyurika 9:56 PM

Sacrificing with your number 7 hitter generally feels odd though

Dan Szymborski 9:55 PM

They key question for a bunt is already what is the probability that the hitter gets a bunt hit. The calculus for a bunt changes wildly in that case

Dan Szymborski 9:56 PM

something like a 10% beating out rate on a sac bunt makes it pretty plausible in most base/out situations

Dan Szymborski 9:56 PM

Ron Johnson ran the numbers way back, but I dont' have them at the moment

Dan Szymborski 9:56 PM

Nor do I want to do that when there's a game on!

Doug Lampert 9:58 PM

An error is as good as a bunt hit, and also comes up pretty often with a fast runner.

GammaDraconis 9:57 PM

This game already has had more offense than I expected.

Dan Szymborski 9:58 PM

Muncy had murder in his eyes after that

Benny The Jet 9:58 PM

No run support and bad D behind him… Skub could've just stayed in Detroit for that

comradeyurika 9:59 PM

All part of the process to lead to him returning to Detroit in the offseason. Trust the process

Matt Martell 9:59 PM

Smoltz said that has to be a hit… That does NOT have to be an hit. Should've been an error

Dan Szymborski 9:59 PM

Things that are not errors in 2026: errors

Dan Szymborski 9:59 PM

As long as you make incompetence look like it was a hard play, you'll get the hit

comradeyurika 10:00 PM

Muncy overran the ball. Definite error

Davy Andrews 10:00 PM

Ooh, Contreras wanted to challenge there.

Davy Andrews 10:01 PM

I love a good challenge-that-turns-into-a-helmet-adjustment.

Michael Baumann 10:01 PM

My conspiracy theory is that MLB has instructed official scorers to give out hits more liberally to exaggerate the effect of the shift on BABIP

Dan Szymborski 10:01 PM

It's not like Muncy made some spectacular dive and it caromed off his glove, he was there, ran past it, and shoudl have had it

Dan Szymborski 10:01 PM

I don't believe MLB is competent enough to successful execute a conspiracy successfully

Worm Burner 10:05 PM

It's not like they are the NBA

Michael Baumann 10:01 PM

Huh, weird, there's a guy in a dark suit and sunglasses with an MLB league credential coming up behind me, let's see what he wants

Davy Andrews 10:02 PM

Don't look at the flashy thing!

David (formerly Sonoma State) 10:04 PM

It’s @brewersbibliophile

Dan Szymborski 10:02 PM

I mean, the actually did collusion by having Peter Ueberroth gather them in a room and yell at them. And then GMs would actually tell agents "those deals you got last time are not available anymore"

Dan Szymborski 10:03 PM

..and that was the last time anyone heard from or saw Michael Baumann.

Sæder 10:05 PM

omg. stop looking at skubal's butt!

Doug Gray 10:07 PM

Ever since I saw Rookie of the Year and heard "Pitcher's got a big butt!" it's an impossible thing that you are asking of me

Dan Szymborski 10:05 PM

I mean, pitcher butts are the center of the screen

Sæder 10:05 PM

that ad oh my

Matt Martell 10:05 PM

Putting Cal Raleigh in an ad about screening for colon cancer is very smart

Dan Szymborski 10:06 PM

I did my Cologuard recently!

Benny The Jet 10:06 PM

Oh my god please tell me someone else just saw the Albert Pujols/Cal Raleigh Cologuard butt commercial

Dan Szymborski 10:06 PM

It was harder than I thought because I kept thinking about that Cologuard Saturday Night Live commercial.

Phil 10:07 PM

I did it and was glad to realize that you remove the receptacle from the box.

Dan Szymborski 10:06 PM

The whole box was in the bathroom and I just kept imagining it telling me to "Unleash"

Dan Szymborski 10:07 PM

Did he say free-peat?

Matt Martell 10:07 PM

Related to both that commercial and DIGGER — John Goodman says "a** cancer" multiple times

Davy Andrews 10:08 PM

Capsule review of Digger, please.

Anonymous Member #46 10:08 PM

I think that means "more askance"

Matt Martell 10:08 PM

I used asterisks so Sean wouldn't have to approve a comment with a** cancer in it

Dan Szymborski 10:08 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMWAUmlKDAE

Sæder 10:10 PM

outrageous. Radiohead doesn't fly

Dan Szymborski 10:10 PM

Oh dang, since we're just regular chatterers, we can't self-ignore censorship things

Dan Szymborski 10:10 PM

I sometimes drop an F bomb in my chats

Doug Gray 10:14 PM

I don't know why my initial thought was that f bombs were farts but it was and it's time for me to take a vacation and just shut off what's left running around in the cobweb-filled skull on my shoulders.

Dan Szymborski 10:12 PM

Andy Pages needs to thicken his mustache, the mustache beard thickness ratio is too low

Dan Szymborski 10:13 PM

Truck commercials are real turnoffs to me. They're all like TRUCKS ARE FOR SERIOUS ADULT WORK THINGS, and I don't want to do any of that

Doug Gray 10:17 PM

They don't make commercials for trucks that people use for actual serious adult work things.

GET A TRUCK DAN

brewersbibliophile 10:13 PM

Go Bratwurst!

Dan Szymborski 10:14 PM

So…uh…is Mike dead?

Phil 10:18 PM

Does Appelman carry worker's comp insurance?

Dan Szymborski 10:17 PM

See, Vesia has a proper ratio. A mustache should be thick enough that it looks like it could hold up the beard if it had to be used as a handle

David (formerly Sonoma State) 10:19 PM

How does his butt to body ratio look?

Rollie's Mustache 10:29 PM

I'll be the judge of that!

Dan Szymborski 10:19 PM

If a food place wants to sponsor a thing in a broadcast, it should also have the possibility of earning free food from viewers

brewersbibliophile 10:21 PM

I wish I had the confidence of a home crowd thinking they know what a balk is when it’s not called on the other team

Anonymous Member #46 10:22 PM

You have about 1/40000th of that confidence, so that's *something*.

Dan Szymborski 10:22 PM

If someone held me a gunpoint and demanded I explain a balk, they'd find my corpse

Dan Szymborski 10:22 PM

Every time you think you know all the balk reasons there's some other thing

Dan Szymborski 10:23 PM

OH THE PITCHER RUBBED HIS BELLY WITHOUT ITCHING HIS ASS THATS ACTUALLY A BALK

brewersbibliophile 10:24 PM

I’m glad there’s no balks in trucking or I’d be leading the world in them!

John Church 10:25 PM

This will be the next frontier of video review, after they do it to check swings. Did the knee cross the midpoint of the body? Did the foot move more than 45 degrees towards home? Instant balk.

Doug Gray 10:26 PM

I hope they bring the check swing review to MLB with the same way they are testing it in the minors/AFL. It is going to completely break the brains of so many people how far you are allowed to "go" with the way it's written. I want to see the chaos.

Dan Szymborski 10:23 PM

Hey, we can say ass

Dan Szymborski 10:23 PM

HAS the world embraced Bills mafia?

bbCardz 10:25 PM

So far not disappointed

Dan Szymborski 10:25 PM

They didn't ask Christopher Walken insane, they just filmed him normally

Dan Szymborski 10:26 PM

I was really upset back in the day when I found that Andy Ashby and Alan Ashby weren't related after thinking they were for like 15 years

Dan Szymborski 10:27 PM

They need a brain chip that checks intention and then they can time it against where the pitch was

brewersbibliophile 10:28 PM

I don’t think I’ve seen a single checked swing get called a swing in these playoffs.

wenz 10:30 PM

PCA had one in the wild card round that made him quite upset

brewersbibliophile 10:31 PM

Ah yes of course

Benny The Jet 10:28 PM

Can you request ABS after a check swing apeal?

Sæder 10:29 PM

or ABS on a throw down to 2nd? i sometimes wonder if strikes are more often called balls on a throw down

Doug Gray 10:30 PM

Nope. You need to meet the "time" requirement after the pitch.

Anonymous Member #46 10:30 PM

You can ABS on steals, and those calls are more erratic than average.

Benny The Jet 10:32 PM

So would you have to appeal the check swing after the ABS challenge effectively? Simultaneously?

Doug Gray 10:33 PM

You need to challenge the pitch within the allotted time. It's out there, but I've seen the hitter and catcher both challenge the same pitch because they both understood the situation at hand and knew they needed to get it in before the decision was made and did or didn't go their way.

Sæder 10:33 PM

tap head with one arm, point to the other ump with your other arm

Seuss2004 10:29 PM edited

I just turned the game on TV after following on gamecast while doing other things, and saw the Polymarket win probability plot at the start of the inning. So I just came here to ask, like, what the f— are we doing here man?

bbCardz 10:31 PM

Not sure what you’re asking.

Doug Gray 10:31 PM

What are doing here? Trying to ruin the lives of people for profit!

Anonymous Member #46 10:32 PM

We're the sucker fans paying for those graphs.

wenz 10:32 PM

I believe he's asking why MLB/Fox thinks it's ok to push gambling on us and also why a gambling site's betting activity would be used rather than traditional win probability

Benny The Jet 10:34 PM

I'm anti-gambling in general, but after seeing some of the "probabilities" they've been advertising I'm almost tempted lol

bbCardz 10:30 PM

Boy he sure likes to pitch low!

Dan Szymborski 10:30 PM

Yes, it's best to hit it over the wall NO MATTER WHO the centerfielder is

Seuss2004 10:32 PM

Works against everyone except the legendary Pete Grows-Armslong.

Dan Szymborski 10:32 PM

I miss the zoom-zoom commercials. I don't have a Mazda just for not dying, which is kinda boring

Doug Lampert 10:34 PM

Not dying is a good point in favor of a product. On the other side, are you going to trust ChatGPT to tell you how to sail a boat while at sea?

Doug Gray 10:35 PM

I wouldn't trust ChatGPT to spell Szymborski correctly.

Benny The Jet 10:35 PM

Every time I see that commercial I just think that those poor old ladies would be found drifting away three days later

Dan Szymborski 10:33 PM

I just have trouble caring either way

Dan Szymborski 10:33 PM

One of nice things about getting older is you can care about a lot fewer things

bbCardz 10:34 PM

Very true

Dan Szymborski 10:34 PM

I can't wait until I'm the age when I can not care that someone tweeted something stupid at me and not feel required to get into a stupid fight

bbCardz 10:34 PM

Same

war2d2 10:35 PM

My kid is playing Maddon on the big TV. He’s winning 70-0. He is mechanically disassembling whoever it is he’s playing, taking no joy in the violence wrought upon his foe. At the same time, there is no sense of shame, no sense of remorse. Does gravity apologize to the steelworker who decided this was the day he wouldn’t use a safety harness? He just scored again. And a conversion. It’s 78-0. I’m watching the NLCS on my phone. I’m not sure he’s even having fun. A pick-6. It’s now 86-0.

war2d2 10:36 PM

I suggest we turn on the game. He scores again, 93-0. A moment, two moments later he says “no.” He scores again. it’s 101-0. I wonder if he knows how much I love him.

brewersbibliophile 10:36 PM

Funny enough, I think I lost my last game of Madden 86-0

Anonymous Member #46 10:37 PM

he's just showing you where replacement level is

war2d2 10:41 PM

He says he's going to try a "weird" play. They all look weird to me. His player breaks away and high-steps the last 20 yards. My son holds his controller up and high-steps in place in front of the TV that isn't playing the NLCS.

war2d2 10:46 PM

He was so small not so long ago, and now he's a dozen years old and bigger than his mom. I want to watch the NLCS. I'm just watching him. I try to remember what he looks like now, commit it to memory, so when he changes in the morning and wakes up a different person I'll remember the boy that he was, high-stepping in front of the TV that isn't playing the NLCS. He scores again.

Dan Szymborski 10:35 PM

Hey Doug, the Grokipedia biography of me is peak.

Doug Gray 10:36 PM

atGrok is this true

Dan Szymborski 10:35 PM

"Daniel John Szymborski (born June 19, 1978) is an American baseball analyst and sabermetrician renowned for developing the ZiPS (Zebulon Igor Projection System) projection system, "

Seuss2004 10:42 PM

To quote Maxwell Smart. "Missed it by THAT much."

Dan Szymborski 10:36 PM

"Szymborski graduated from high school in 1996 and demonstrated early independence by self-financing much of his college education through physically demanding construction work, including digging ditches"

Matt Martell 10:41 PM

Digger Dan Szymborski????

Dan Szymborski 10:36 PM

Also did not do that, I don't even like the outside if there's no beer or baseball

Dan Szymborski 10:37 PM

now, it would be awesome if my name was Zebulon Igor

Doug Gray 10:38 PM

I have some good news about something you can do about this

wenz 10:37 PM

Perhaps they mean that you physically demanded that someone do construction work

Dan Szymborski 10:38 PM

I'm still disappointed my dad didn't want my name to be Alexander because i could have been Zander Zymborski

bbCardz 10:38 PM

What do we think of Cooper Pratt?

Phil 10:41 PM edited

His name sounds like a white shoe law firm.

war2d2 10:47 PM

He looks like a Cooper pratt.

Dan Szymborski 10:38 PM

It took me 30 years to get people to mostly spell my name right, I'm not starting from square one

Phillip Denny 10:39 PM

88 mph sliders I can abide because it's almost a cutter and I can wrap my head around that. 88 mph sweepers, however, is where I draw the line. Science has gone too far.

Benny The Jet 10:40 PM

MLB could run low on championship-less teams soon… Of the 5 teams to never win a World Series, two have a chance still this year, one was in the NLDS, one was in the ALCS last year, and one plays in Colorado

Phillip Denny 10:40 PM

What's next, 100 mph splitters? Wait…

wenz 10:40 PM

The nub on the top of the Brewers hat is the same color as the rest of the hat, but the nub on the Dodgers hat is a different color. I think I like the different nub color better

Dan Szymborski 10:40 PM

I think Dodgers pitchers generally have bigger butts than Brewers pitchers. Given the cities, shoudln't it be the opposite?

Phillip Denny 10:41 PM

Junk in the trunk is the new market inefficiency.

Sæder 10:42 PM

the kardashians do live in LA

brewersbibliophile 10:42 PM

LA has the injections to make their butts bigger. Milwaukee has to rely on bratwursts.

Lanenator 10:41 PM

Ryan Braun had -28.5 FLD as a rookie 3B. Do we think that if he came out or retirement right now that he could beat that playing a full season at 1B?

Dan Szymborski 10:42 PM

I wonder if ChatGPT is going to make up the answer to "Give me a chart of ass size by city"

bbCardz 10:42 PM

That was NOT a strike. Bring on the AI umps.

Dan Szymborski 10:42 PM

Are there enough kardashians by now to skew it?

Sæder 10:43 PM

we are all kardashians

Dan Szymborski 10:43 PM

I don't endorse AEDs

Dan Szymborski 10:43 PM

People with big butts shoudl have to be tested to make sure they have high cholesterol

wenz 10:45 PM edited

The Pujols Cologuard commercial seems to have infected Dan's brain

Dan Szymborski 10:45 PM

My brain was destroyed decades ago

Sonny L 10:45 PM edited

Ever since I read that Luzardo’s glasses aren’t prescription I can’t trust any of these pitchers.

Phil 10:47 PM

I don't trust any pitcher. They don't tell you what pitch they'll throw (except Greinke).

Dan Szymborski 10:46 PM

Andy and Alan! Aaron is Andy's nephew but not Alan relaetd

Dan Szymborski 10:46 PM

Now the other Andy/Alan pair, the Beneses, are releated

Phillip Denny 10:47 PM

I know it's his jam, but trying to push Ashby for 1+ here seems like an unnecessary risk.

Matt Martell 10:47 PM

Any relation to Hal?

Sæder 10:47 PM

exactly my question!

bbCardz 10:47 PM

Maybe institute a rule that you can’t have the same last name unless you’re related.

Dan Szymborski 10:47 PM

sorry endaround, I can't approve your link!

Dan Szymborski 10:47 PM

I didn't set up the chat

Dan Szymborski 10:48 PM

when he makes it an error it's a Cooper Pratfall

endaround 10:48 PM

Not an issue-just link to Athletic piece about Aaron's uncle Andy

bbCardz 10:48 PM

I HATE walks. Such a waste.

Sonny L 10:49 PM

Every bit of that was stressful

Dan Szymborski 10:49 PM

how did that lady in teh state farm commercial only have the hail damage on ONE wall?

wenz 10:50 PM

Their fraud unit is sleeping on the job

war2d2 10:51 PM

“Funny, these dents are all precisely 1/2 inch, almost like you went crazy with a ball-peen hammer.”

Dan Szymborski 10:49 PM

the other wall facing the same direction had no hail damage

Dan Szymborski 10:50 PM

I never want to see that Trolli commercial again

Doug Gray 10:50 PM

Let's give it a lil kick….. off of the airwaves

Sæder 10:50 PM

i have this year been subjected to a lot of mahjong gossiping

Dan Szymborski 10:50 PM

Are we all getting the same commercials?

Sæder 10:51 PM

i saw that hail damage / mahjong commercial. and the trucks and the mazda. i'm streaming on foxone

war2d2 10:52 PM

I’m on YoutubeTV, and all my commercials have been matching yours.

Benny The Jet 10:50 PM

I knew Ohtani was hurt but I didn't realize he was THIS hurt… really does kind of change the way you look at LA's lineup if he's basically just Rowdy Telez with speed right now

Sonny L 10:53 PM

Fast Rowdy Tellez sounds awesome and that’s Ohtani’s like 20% outcome. Amazing

Phillip Denny 10:54 PM

There is a genuine argument for starting JDP over him. It won't happen, but it's an argument.

Benny The Jet 11:00 PM

Ohtani being pinch-hit for in a big spot against a lefty feels… not impossible at least, which is crazy

bbCardz 10:51 PM

The number of bad throws to first in the postseason has been epic.

Dan Szymborski 10:51 PM

I always like when food companies have commercials saying "you know that thing you've been eating for years? Well, we know it was %#@#, so we made it better now."

Dan Szymborski 10:52 PM

yeah, I stream it from foxone too

bbCardz 10:53 PM

Chuuuurio

Phillip Denny 10:56 PM

Lord give me strength I am arguing with someone that the Dodgers bullpen having the 9th ranked bullpen ERA =/= the Dodgers have the 9th ranked bullpen in the league.

Sonny L 10:57 PM

Tanner Scott did not skip PFPs this week. That was smooth

bosoxforlife 10:57 PM

I knew the Brewers were playing a different type of baseball, but 1950's style?

John Church 10:57 PM

Guy who homered earlier in the game sacrifices… it isn’t the worst decision of the playoffs, but it’s something

AdvantageSchneider 11:00 PM

Do you think he’s going to homer twice against a lefty?

wenz 10:57 PM

Jon Smoltz is so so so happy with how the Brewers play. For a moment I think he briefly forgot that he hates modern baseball

Phillip Denny 10:58 PM

I know you mean the sport but I am choosing to interpret this comment about the emo band to give it more layers.

war2d2 10:59 PM

Man with the KZone turned off this weird camera angle makes all the borderline pitches that are outside to lefties look like strikes.

bbCardz 10:59 PM

Bauers…

GammaDraconis 10:59 PM

Dodgers playing the numbers, or playing with fire?

Seuss2004 10:59 PM

WHAT.

Sonny L 11:00 PM

“Maybe Mitchel surprises us”

bbCardz 11:00 PM

It’s the smart decision statistically

Matt Martell 11:00 PM

This is a bonkers decision

Sæder 11:00 PM

Mookie my gosh. It's amazing that he looks like a real SS

Matt Martell 11:00 PM

Even if it works out, it's still wild

Doug Gray 11:00 PM

OK, let's commercial track. 1st one if the F1 commercial for HP self driving network.

war2d2 11:01 PM

Yup. Second is the Geico couch commercial.

John Church 11:01 PM

Can’t wait to see how many times two intentional walks in the same inning pays off.

bbCardz 11:01 PM

Not impressed with Mitchell.

Doug Gray 11:01 PM

2nd commercial for me is a Geico commercial

Sonny L 11:01 PM

I mean, he scorched that ball up the middle

Sæder 11:01 PM

did he eat van gogh's ear as a chip?

Doug Gray 11:01 PM

SURE DID

Doug Gray 11:01 PM

3rd commercial is a Wendy's commercial

bbCardz 11:01 PM

HP then Geico

Benny The Jet 11:01 PM

Dave Roberts decided there wasn't going to be enough heat on him tomorrow for a play-off game, just had to do something about it

Phillip Denny 11:01 PM edited

Quick, someone do the RE math of 2 out 123 with the platoon advantage versus 2 out 12- without it.

Anonymous Member #46 11:03 PM

In that vein, I'm more interested in what the odds are of a scoreless inning are in both scenarios.

Phillip Denny 11:04 PM

Whoever is doing to post game article, this would be a nice thing to see if it's readily available.

Doug Gray 11:02 PM

4th commercial is the kid gamers teaching their parents how to play DOTA (I think that's what this is) – AT&T commercial

Benny The Jet 11:02 PM edited

Can confirm HP -> Geico -> Wendy's watching FoxOne on Fubo

Sæder 11:02 PM

then Wendy. then weird ATT gaming with your parents ad. that could be you, war2d2

war2d2 11:03 PM

I should be so lucky.

Doug Gray 11:02 PM

5th commercial is the nutrafol
6th commercial is a Harbor Freight commercial

psweeting 11:03 PM

FWIW Fangraphs win expectancy graph has it increasing the brewers odds from 86.5% to 87.9%

bbCardz 11:03 PM

So, what did you do on Fangraphs? We listed the commercials.

Anonymous Member #46 11:04 PM

Rigorously, with peer review!

David (formerly Sonoma State) 11:04 PM

We talked about the pitcher’s butts

Dan Szymborski 11:04 PM

"Hi, I'm Corey Seager. I'm a MLB SS, the better Seager, and the second-earliest balding man behind Michael Chilkis, and I'm here to talk about Nutrafol."

Seuss2004 11:07 PM

I recently realized the Seagers are the only pair of MLB brothers with 200+ HRs each and I definitely had not expected that.

Dan Szymborski 11:04 PM

Asses are one of the things that are universal to the human experiences

John Church 11:05 PM

Opinions and…

Sonny L 11:05 PM

Nobody challenges the pitch after the one they should have like Contreras. Auto tilt challenges

Sonny L 11:06 PM

Did this crowd think they were going to win? Feels like they’ve been holding their breath from the first pitch

brewersbibliophile 11:10 PM

When you get your ass beat the first time around, you’re next as excited going into the second.

AdvantageSchneider 11:10 PM

What would you do?

Dan Szymborski 11:08 PM

I wonder if being Joe's brother causes Dom DiMaggio to be really underrated in history

Sæder 11:09 PM

i was just rewatching The Last Goodbye, and Marlowe asks his bud to name the DiMaggios. And Joe was the one the guy forgot of the three. Oddball scripting!

Matt Martell 11:11 PM edited

You mean The Long Goodbye?

Sæder 11:11 PM

yes! too tense right now

bbCardz 11:09 PM

Cmon man.

Phillip Denny 11:09 PM

JDP could write a legend here if he does the thing….

Sonny L 11:09 PM

Shook off to throw the curve he hadn’t executed all AB. Maddening

bbCardz 11:09 PM

Better to throw it in the dirt apparently

Sonny L 11:12 PM

Those curves under the zone set up a bottom rail FB really well. You just have to throw it.

Phillip Denny 11:09 PM

JDP like most power lefties has a happy zone low and inside.

Sonny L 11:10 PM

THATS what you throw Tucker 3-2

Seuss2004 11:11 PM

"No pressure kid. If you miss this, we lose."

bbCardz 11:11 PM

For the love of God

bbCardz 11:12 PM

Don’t GIVE them the game

Benny The Jet 11:12 PM

Nothing better than when these games live up to the hype in October

war2d2 11:12 PM

Gameday says my TV feed is two pitches behind. I think that’s the sweet spot actually, I like being ready to watch a big moment.

war2d2 11:12 PM

Or not. Welp.

bosoxforlife 11:12 PM

Back tomorrow for more entertaining interaction with the great fans and writers at Fangraphs.

Dan Szymborski 11:12 PM

Megill was pop on toast but made it

Sæder 11:12 PM

wow. low scoring with short outings by Cy Young starters. not what i imagined.

bbCardz 11:13 PM

Finally, Jesus

comradeyurika 11:13 PM

What a game!

Dan Szymborski 11:13 PM

Baumann has the gamer tonight, so hopefully the MLB official didn't kidnap him

war2d2 11:14 PM

He’s on Bluesky, he’s just shunning us.

Phillip Denny 11:13 PM

If you're the dodgers, your takeaway is you made their best pitcher work and you got somewhat into the bullpen. If you're the Brewers, your takeaway is you looked and felt like the better team innings 5-9.

Sonny L 11:15 PM

2 judges had it a draw. 3rd gave a 10-9 advantage based on Ashby

Dan Szymborski 11:14 PM

Ah, yeah he skeeted 14 minutes ago

Benny The Jet 11:14 PM

And we get two games tomorrow!

Dan Szymborski 11:15 PM

Do we get a Whopper or something now?

Phillip Denny 11:16 PM

Never forget that they took away "Steal a Base, Steal a Taco" from you.

bbCardz 11:17 PM

At least it wasn’t endless pharmaceutical and betting app commercials

Dan Szymborski 11:19 PM

OK, game over so I'm gonna go play Trails of Cold Steel II

Sunday Notes: D-backs Prospect Demetrio Crisantes Is Crushing It in the Desert

by David Laurila

October 11, 2026

Demetrio Crisantes is off to a hot start in the Arizona Fall League. The 22-year-old second baseman has gone 8-for-20 with a triple and a pair of doubles for the Salt River Rafters. That hardly comes as a surprise. As our own Brendan Gawlowski wrote prior to the regular season, “Crisantes has a case as the best pure hitter in the D-backs system.”

The Tucson native’s track record largely backs up that opinion. Since being drafted in the seventh round by his home-state team in 2023 out of Nogales High School, Crisantes has slashed .312/.399/.473 with a 125 wRC+. Moreover, this past season he batted .296 with 10 home runs over 335 plate appearances between three levels, topping out at Triple-A. Notably, Arizona’s No. 3 prospect played all but the final two weeks as a 21-year-old.

Staying on the field has been an issue. Crisantes has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries — the first at age 15, the second two years later — and he has subsequently dealt with hamstring and shoulder injuries. That makes his stint in the desert especially meaningful. Eric Longenhagen put it this way in his Fall League preview:

“He has really hit when he’s been healthy, and how he looks in the AFL might help inform whether the D-backs feel comfortable trading Ketel Marte this offseason. He’s arguably the most important eval in the entire league.”

Asked for a self-assessment of his strengths as a hitter, Crisantes cited the plus contact skills described in Gawlowski’s scouting report. Read the rest of this entry »

2026 NLCS Preview: The Brewers Get Their Rematch

by Dan Szymborski

October 11, 2026

Benny Sieu and Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

When the Los Angeles Dodgers finished off the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS, they set up a rematch of last year’s NLCS against the Milwaukee Brewers. Last time around, the Brewers, coming off an extremely successful 97-65 season, ran into the Dodger buzzsaw and were swept out of the postseason. While Milwaukee mostly kept Los Angeles’ offense in check, the Brew Crew could only muster one run in each of their four games, and when that’s all you manage to score, you have to pitch shutouts to prevail. As noted in many a book and movie, revenge frequently comes with a good deal of satisfaction, whatever Herman Melville may have thought. And the Brewers now have the chance to turn the tables on the Dodgers and stymie their quest for baseball’s first three-peat (please don’t sue me, Pat Riley) of the 21st century.

Going back to the start of the modern World Series in 1903, there have been 45 consecutive-year postseason rematches in major league history (here we’re including a rematch in any playoff series the following year). In 17 of those 45 rematches, the previous year’s loser got their revenge, but no team has immediately avenged a playoff sweep. Granted, before now, there have only been five chances for a team to get vengeance the year after being swept in the playoffs — Orioles-Twins in 1970, Yankees-Rangers in 1999, Cardinals-Padres in 2006, Red Sox-Angels in 2008, and Yankees-Twins in 2010 — but it still gives the Brewers the opportunity to do something that’s never been done before.

ZiPS favors the Dodgers by a significant, but not overwhelming, margin in the NLCS. But with the fourth-most wins in the majors over the last decade, including the most wins in each of the last two seasons, the Brewers aren’t your typical scrappy underdog fighting for table scraps. Yet, in another sense, they are: Every year, they crush the expectations of fans, the Vegas oddsmakers, and projection systems. As the developer of one of those projection systems, I’ve spent a lot of time scratching my head over how the Brewers so routinely defy the expectations of my model in a way no other team has, and while I think I’ve identified the mechanism of my humiliation, I’m still trying to figure out how to model it. Read the rest of this entry »

Gavin Williams, José Ramírez Power Guardians to ALCS

by Davy Andrews

October 11, 2026

Pope Leo XIV may not have quite as much pull with The Man Upstairs as Chicago fans had hoped. After obliterating the Astros in the Wild Card Series and jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS, the White Sox dropped three in a row to end their miracle 2026 season. On the back of a brilliant performance from starter Gavin Williams, the Guardians defeated the White Sox, 2-0, in Game 5. They’ll now head to St. Petersburg to face the Rays on Monday night, making their second ALCS appearance in three years.

So many things about this series were odd. Both managers pulled every lever they could get their hands on. The first four games featured 49 pitchers and just 54 hits. Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt continued the trend in Game 5. He shook up his lineup, sitting catcher Austin Hedges in favor of Patrick Bailey, who homered in Game 4. Angel Martínez, who went 0-for-15 in the first four games of the series, got benched in favor of Petey Halpin, who ran a 66 wRC+ in the regular season. But after all the mixing and matching and overthinking, the rubber match was a genuine, old-fashioned pitcher’s duel. If you’re a fan of gaudy strikeout totals and teardrop curveballs pouring into the strike zone, this was the game for you.

The game also looked like it might be impacted by weather. Rain started falling before first pitch, with the intensity picking up in the bottom of the second. By the third, the television broadcast was cutting to Guardians fans wearing ponchos and the cleat cleaner was getting significant air time. The grounds crew replaced the cleat cleaner after the third, and just like that, the rain calmed down. By the fifth, it had all but stopped. Read the rest of this entry »

Members-Only Game Thread: ALDS – Guardians at White Sox – Oct 10, 2026

by Sean Dolinar

October 10, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALDS game today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Guardians play the White Sox! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Keaton Arneson 7:35 PM

UND football is blowing it's chance for #1 after next week.

Sean Dolinar 7:43 PM

Sounds like you are only missing heartbreak.

Keaton Arneson 7:44 PM

And our All American caliber QB is hurt. He was probably going to get $ million+ next year from a big school.

Brian547 7:40 PM

What is the community consensus on whether the bullpen management by Vogt has been horrible, or horrible enough to warrant his immediate removal?

Keaton Arneson 7:42 PM

I have hated bullpen management this series, but no way I would let Vogt go. I assume bullpen management wasn't just a Vogt decision, but a game plan worked out with the front office.

Sean Dolinar 7:44 PM

Good evening! Appreciate everyone being here.

Brian547 7:45 PM

It was worked out that you would only use your BEST pitchers in the LOWEST leverage situations???? What?

Keaton Arneson 7:46 PM

I agree. I think it's been too much of win now and not to win the series.

Brian547 7:46 PM

Why is Festa on the roster?

Keaton Arneson 7:48 PM

If he wasn't hurt, I would have pitched him over Smith and Williams in the 9th

Keaton Arneson 7:48 PM

I don't know if he's hurt

Brian547 7:49 PM

Or 8th or previous game 8th or 9th… ok end rant… I am just venting a bit and looking for feedback. Cheers for the platform, everyone enjoy the game!!

Sean Dolinar 7:52 PM

This is good content, thought!

Phil 7:52 PM

I guess my mild defense of Vogt would be tbat, given the state of CWS's pitching, they have a decent chance of a blowout win in game 5. So all in in game 4 made some sense, maybe. Nevertheless, I agree that even with that assumption, some of the details were perplexing.

John Church 7:55 PM

They were already in a “big lead” situation, up by 5 in the 8th (or at latest, in the 9th). How big a lead do you need to use your lower leverage guys?

Brian547 7:55 PM

umm… not buying the "Hey guys tomorrow is guaranteed to be a blowout win, so its fine if I'm stupid today" defense.

Keaton Arneson 7:57 PM

The real question is over/under 3 innings from Williams today and over/under 1.5 runs from Smith? These are the consequences of the previous decisions.

Brian547 7:57 PM

The only good idea I have had is that maybe – and this is a real conspiracy theory- the assumption was that hurricane is coming and there will not be a game on SAT.

Phil 7:59 PM edited

The only hurricane I can remember making it to Cleveland was Sandy, which came from the other direction.

Brian547 8:00 PM

like I meant to imply its a horrible horrible explanation… just the only one I have.

John Church 8:01 PM

It’s an extreme application of “Don’t save your pitcher for tomorrow; tomorrow it may rain.”

Phil 8:05 PM

It might, in fact, but probably later, I think.

Rich Hill's Fastball 7:59 PM

Happy Sam Antonacci Appreciation Week to everyone!

small e 8:02 PM

my read on Vogt is he got stuck in "we can't plan for game 5 unless we make sure to win today", which makes a small amount of sense, but if you increase your odds of winning G4 from 99.1% to 99.9% by using your best pitchers but maybe dramatically reduce your strength for G5…

Brian547 8:03 PM

Right this is catastrophically bad management… no?

small e 8:07 PM

for me not fireably bad since he's proven to be very well respected at the job otherwise and this is a kind of strategic choice that could be corrected next time

Brian547 8:10 PM edited

If actively making your team less likely to win the series is not fire able can you give an example of something else, within the realm of could plausibly happen, which would rise to that level?

si.or.no 8:05 PM

As a card carrying member of Team Entropy (still waiting for my flair), I really enjoy the chaos created by the, um, non-traditional bullpen usage.

Phil 8:08 PM

Rays probably have no objection either.

bosoxforlife 8:07 PM

I followed college football until the hated NIL turned the game into the NFL minor league but with major league salaries in the Big 4 conferences. There was a time that App. State could beat Michigan in the Big House. Today every game between majors and mid majors is 70-0. I haven't watched a game, even UConn, this year.

Keaton Arneson 8:09 PM edited

What about Michigan "losing" to Western Michigan this year?

Benny The Jet 8:09 PM

Could we get another pivotal rain delay in a winner-take-all game in Cleveland?

Sean Dolinar 8:16 PM

I want to say if they delay, it will be suspended until tomorrow afternoon. But I'm not sure what this hurricane is going to do. I'm thinking about Sandy dumping rain on this region for like 2-3 days straight. This one looks more scattered.

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:11 PM

Maybe a midge delay?

bosoxforlife 8:13 PM

I will never forget it. It was so much fun to watch.

Keaton Arneson 8:13 PM

Vogt is vindicated. Williams is going 7 shutout innings tonight and Smith with a two inning save.

Brian547 8:13 PM

I will gladly issue a public apology if this happens.

bosoxforlife 8:13 PM

I do not understand why everybody got so lathered up over Williams throwing some pitches on what is normally his throw day anyway.

Brian547 8:14 PM

Its much more the usage of the best pitchers in the lowest leverage situations. Smith was a waste in both games… same for Williams.

bosoxforlife 8:16 PM

I agree that Williams was not the best choice there but he isn't made of glass as many seem to think.

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:14 PM

That was some high-octane rocket fuel from Williams

Matt Martell 8:15 PM

Here's my question to everyone advocating for firing Vogt, or Boone or others: Who would you hire to replace him?

Brian547 8:17 PM edited

For Vogt… I would keep him as a bench coach/personality manager and just remove him from every strategic decision going forward. I have nothing against the guy, he seems genuinely likable and a decent person… I just cant defend the decisions and have not heard anyone suggest a way that they can be defended.

Benny The Jet 8:17 PM

Vogt and/or Boone in that scenario

Matt Martell 8:20 PM

You would want them to swap teams?

Matt Martell 8:15 PM

Also, hi

Sean Dolinar 8:16 PM

Matt, you aren't at the white out?

Matt Martell 8:19 PM

Nope – I have a job that keeps me pretty busy in October.

Matt Martell 8:20 PM

Also, I don't think watching Penn State football is good for my mental health

Davy Andrews 8:20 PM

I'm on the gamer tonight, so I can't do much chatting, but I wanted to jump in and say hello to everyone.

bosoxforlife 8:21 PM

The radar appears to show rain at the corner of Carnegie & Ontario but I don't see any falling or any umbrellas in the stands.

small e 8:22 PM

There was a little visibly falling around first pitch time. I can't see it now

Sean Dolinar 8:26 PM

There are some drops on their batting helmets

Davy Andrews 8:23 PM

If anybody has any thoughts about what I should write tonight, just let me know.

Sean Dolinar 8:24 PM

Everyone take a paragraph!

Keaton Arneson 8:25 PM

Williams + Smith perfect game of course

Davy Andrews 8:25 PM

I'm sure they can hang on.

Sean Dolinar 8:25 PM

jinxed, scrap that idea.

Davy Andrews 8:27 PM

No-hitter still intact.

Brian547 8:27 PM edited

Why "Cleveland Rocks" is objectively the best localized ballpark/team themed song… sorry Boston. Or at least a comparative piece involving the options. I would read that.

Sean Dolinar 8:28 PM

This is a good lockout article idea.

Sean Dolinar 8:24 PM

🔥

baycommuter 8:29 PM

Could do a March Madness-type bracket poll with it.

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:27 PM

If this isn't 80-grade stuff for a starter, I don't know what is

bosoxforlife 8:29 PM

Williams, at 6'6" and a sturdy 250, doesn't mentioned with Misiorowski, Tolle and Skenes as much as he should be. Just another strikeout machine.

Matt Martell 8:30 PM

Do you think the guy who plays Doug in the Liberty Mutual commercials has any regrets about how his life turned out?

Brian547 8:32 PM

Mayhem guy made it into John Wick… so it may be working out brilliantly and we just don't know the endgame.

Sean Dolinar 8:33 PM

It's super hard to get any steady work in that industry. That's a decent gig. It's no Flo from Progressive.

Sean Dolinar 8:34 PM

Incidentally, I went to high school with Mara from those Progressive commercials.

MinClea 8:39 PM

I work with a guy who reminds me of Doug. I mentioned this to him. He said – "the guy with the ostrich?" – I laughed and he left the room………….oops.

small e 8:34 PM

well, there's the rain

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:35 PM

Anyone know where Jason Heyward is?

Sean Dolinar 8:37 PM

Was there any talk about moving this early today?

Tommyfastball 8:43 PM

5:00 on west coast is kind of a dead zone

Sean Dolinar 8:37 PM

More bad, low leverage challenges!

bosoxforlife 8:38 PM

A challenge on the first pitch in the 3rd inning? What is he thinking?

small e 8:39 PM

fooled himself with where he caught it, maybe? it fell to top of the zone height by the time it was in his glove

Sean Dolinar 8:42 PM

He framed himself?

Doug Gray 8:47 PM

This was the first draft of Who Framed Roger Rabbit and it didn't play well with audiences so they had to do a re-write.

si.or.no 8:46 PM

Colson Montgomery said he wears his pants extra high to draw bad challenges from catchers.

si.or.no 8:50 PM

Which makes me wonder:
They use some % of height for the zone, but are there hitters who fall on the edge of the bell curve in torso/leg proportion, where a catcher setting up (or an umpire) is fooled more often about where the auto-zone is?

(Like, not the tall/short guys)

Davy Andrews 8:49 PM

CLEAT CLEANER.

Brian547 8:50 PM

Muddy boots is the appropriate penalty for pitching in VELCRO high-tops.

MinClea 8:49 PM

Least favorite baseball sayings. I will start………."Flashing the leather"………I don't know why – just bugs me.

Doug Gray 8:51 PM

"Great piece of hitting" when used to describe a ball that if you hit in the cage your coach would drop his head in disappointment but that ball somehow found the magic spot 107 feet from the plate to land where a glove wasn't.

Seuss2004 9:09 PM

My dad always hated when they said 'he had to cover a lot of real estate out there'. It was an unreasonable amount of hatred, like, he couldn't move on after hearing that. Would just soliloquy about the quality of announcers these days and how they don't paint the picture like they used to. I feel obligated to adopt that unhealthy, unbridled rage in his honor.

Brian547 8:59 PM

I like that we all went silent to watch the marvel that is tonight's version of Williams.

Benny The Jet 8:59 PM

Man Williams looks sharp- what a treat to get an old school pitching duel (so far) in this series, of all series

Rich Hill's Fastball 8:59 PM

My jaw's on the floor

Phil 9:00 PM

Record for strikeouts in an LCS game seems to be 15 (Clemens).

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:01 PM

I think Cole had 15 or 16 in 2019 as well

Phil 9:02 PM

That was LDS. Looks like Livan Hernandez and Mussina are the other LCS game with 15.

coldbagel12 9:02 PM

Love how Gavin looks, but if this is a 1-0 game I'd take Chicago's chances at a solo shot

Seuss2004 9:03 PM

I have nothing to add but want to see if a team shows up next to my name.

Seuss2004 9:03 PM

Rats.

Davy Andrews 9:03 PM

Click the little settings gear at the top right.

Davy Andrews 9:03 PM

There you go.

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:03 PM

Seuss, you can use the settings cog in the top right to select your team

bosoxforlife 9:04 PM

How come Williams carried a 3.76 ERA and a 3.48? I have seen a 100 mph fastball, a 90 mph slider and 12-6 curveball, the likes of which is seldom seen today, that all look untouchable. Maybe in 2027 starters will be asked to make a relief appearance 2 days before each start if this is what comes out of it.

Matt Martell 9:05 PM

A ton of homers

Brian547 9:06 PM edited

That is what a Cricket swing normally looks like!! oops meant to post below… apologies

Phil 9:04 PM

There ya go.

Doug Gray 9:05 PM

Streaming strikes again! I saw this about 30 seconds before contact was made on my TV.

Phil 9:06 PM

Sorry. I'll be more careful.

Doug Gray 9:08 PM

No way man! Live in the moment!

Sean Dolinar 9:08 PM

You can delay the chat up to 3 minutes with the gear in the corner.

Benny The Jet 9:09 PM

Thank you again for this feature, it is awesome! For me at least, 15 seconds seems to line up perfectly

moomin 9:05 PM

Wow

Sean Dolinar 9:05 PM

Those soccer-style chants worked!

Benny The Jet 9:05 PM

Man how did he hit that

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:05 PM

Wow!

MinClea 9:05 PM

man…….that was a great 9 iron !

small e 9:06 PM

That pitch was on the ground

bosoxforlife 9:06 PM

That is what I was waiting to see! My favorite non-Red Sox player delivering yet again.

bosoxforlife 9:13 PM

Matt, I saw the HR's which confused me all the more. How can anyone even hit his stuff, much less take it deep?

Matt Martell 9:21 PM

Now this is the question… my guess is batters sell out for 100 up in the zone, and when they guess right, it goes a long way

Ben Schneider 9:16 PM

Hi everyone, this game has been fun so far. Williams is absolutely dealing

mlommler 9:16 PM

To paraphrase Michael Corleone, all men can be taken yard

Benny The Jet 9:18 PM

He's giving strong Verlander vibes right now, and JV always had a bit of trouble with the HR ball

Brian547 9:21 PM

They are starting to take better swings…

Phil 9:23 PM

So. . . how deep does Vogt let him get if things stay this way?

Yer Main Guy 9:25 PM

As long as he's got his foot on their necks

Brian547 9:27 PM

I fully expect he will be pulled for Festa right now.

bosoxforlife 9:26 PM

72 pitches through 5 is too many in today's game, Vogt will be under the gun if Williams keeps this up. Of course if it was Bob Gibson on the mound Vogt would know that he should stay in the dugout and keep quiet.

Ben Schneider 9:26 PM

Vogt always has a quick hook, and I wonder if he'll take Williams out too soon

MinClea 9:27 PM

He has to get the 6th……….then see how that goes. If he gets the 8,9,1……..good to go

Doug Gray 9:29 PM

I know it's not the newest thing but it is still wild that they will be those quick 5-10 second in-inning commercials. (Rhetorical question) Is there no end to how much we will be subjected to advertising the rest of our lives?

Benny The Jet 9:29 PM

If I'm Vogt I'm hoping Williams and Smith are the only two pitchers to touch the ball at this point

moomin 9:30 PM

ah… deja vu

MinClea 9:30 PM

oops……..

Ben Schneider 9:30 PM

Why is the 9 hitter going for three there?

Sean Dolinar 9:30 PM

Ooof, that's rough.

Brian547 9:30 PM

I have a new scapegoat if CLE loses!!

bosoxforlife 9:32 PM

That was a good gamble with one out. It would have been hard to get him in from 2nd.

Brian547 9:33 PM

much harder from the dugout

bosoxforlife 9:34 PM

As I said, it was a gamble but a good one.

Ben Schneider 9:31 PM

8 hitter; point still stands

Sean Dolinar 9:31 PM

Gotta be a hero.

bosoxforlife 9:31 PM

While we have been enthralled with the pitching of Williams, Burke is actually the first White Sox starter to get past the 5th this post-season.

Phil 9:34 PM

This has been a much better-pitched game than I was expecting all around. Just the one swing from the best hitter in this series.

Ben Schneider 9:36 PM

I don't recommend that on an 0-2 count

bosoxforlife 9:36 PM

Williams hadn't thrown many sliders and that wasn't the time to throw one.

Brian547 9:37 PM

That is not CADE SMITH!

jonmberra 9:39 PM

I don’t care who wins but j want a hit so we don’t have Blake Snell 2.0 discourse.

Phil 9:41 PM

With this pitch count it's not going to be that controversial, I don't think. He's also kinda pitching like he's not expecting to pitch the 7th.

John Church 9:42 PM

You can breathe a sigh of relief

Ben Schneider 9:40 PM

When Javier was pulled with a no-hitter in the World Series I don't remember many people saying he should have stayed in

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:42 PM

Especially with multiple series after this one (you'd hope if you're Vogt), can't risk Williams getting hurt or tiring after today

Matt Martell 9:42 PM

And there it is

Brian547 9:43 PM

WHY ISNT SMITH WARMING UP???

bosoxforlife 9:43 PM

As much as I hate to say it, the White Sox are getting much better swings and there is the first hit.

Phil 9:44 PM

Vargas his last hitter either way?

jonmberra 9:44 PM

Williams was a victim of his own strikeouts in pursuit of the No-hitter. Hard to do it when you throw that many pitches.

Benny The Jet 9:44 PM

Green light here?

Brian547 9:45 PM

If Vogt brings in Sabrowski of the 6 bb/9 in with the bases loaded here can I then have him fired please?

Benny The Jet 9:45 PM

Oof that could be a huge missed call

Benny The Jet 9:45 PM

Nvm

Matt Martell 9:45 PM

What a turn of events

John Church 9:47 PM

I’m not sure if Murakami is the guy I most want up if I’m the Sox or least want up.

Rich Hill's Fastball 9:47 PM

Does Williams run out of gas if he doesn't throw a couple days ago?

Seuss2004 9:47 PM

Well that escalated quickly

bosoxforlife 9:47 PM

This is an instance when it appears Williams gave it his all from pitch one and has run out of gas. Vogt is definitely making the right move here and that comes from an old school fab who believes in letting the starter go very deep.

Brian547 9:47 PM

No the right move is bringing in SMITH… anyone else is a error

bosoxforlife 9:50 PM

Closers close!

Brian547 9:51 PM

New candidate for my answer to least favorite thing baseball people say!

grill marks 9:47 PM

I gotta wonder if hitters don't challenge because they know the pitcher is gonna go back to that spot and then they will just challenge if it's called a strike again.

grill marks 9:48 PM

Kind of like baiting the pitcher.

Ben Schneider 9:50 PM

No trouble finding the zone there

Phil 9:50 PM

Made it, but they're going to miss that challenge I think.

Matt Martell 9:50 PM

Great situation to challenge, bad pitch

Brian547 9:50 PM

Glad it worked but that should have been smith.

coldbagel12 9:52 PM

Gaddis would have been my pick, Smith likes closing. Just not the high walk guy.

bosoxforlife 9:53 PM

A lefty against Murakami is the better choice.

Brian547 9:54 PM

Smith in addition to being far better, walking fewer batters, HAS REVERSE PLATOON SPLITS!!!

Yer Main Guy 9:58 PM

Dude it worked and Smith is still there. You have no argument

Benny The Jet 9:53 PM

To play devil's advocate, you can afford a walk there (theoretically), but you absolutely cannot afford a homer

CJ 9:53 PM edited

I don't see this game ends in 2-0 or 2-1, but it may be my wishful thinking

coldbagel12 9:56 PM

Hard to see it right now. But we'll see

Matt Martell 9:57 PM

I really want Jo Adell to hit another triple

Ben Schneider 9:57 PM

Murakami has pretty big splits, so I think bringing in a lefty made sense

bosoxforlife 9:58 PM

Almost a 50% K percentage against lefties.

Brian547 9:59 PM

what are you talking about its a lower Xwoba vs righties

Brian547 10:00 PM

and higher K rate vs righties

Brian547 10:00 PM

dont just make crap up

bosoxforlife 10:02 PM

No Brian, Murakami fans a higher rate against lefties.

Ben Schneider 10:05 PM

I was basing the splits on OPS, which I know some FG people wouldn't approve of

Brian547 10:02 PM

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/munetaka-murakami/37120/sp…

Brian547 10:03 PM edited

34.9 <35.7 both less than "almost 50%"

bosoxforlife 10:04 PM

Try Baseball- Reference.

Anonymous Member #46 10:04 PM

HERESY

Brian547 10:04 PM

dude

John Church 10:06 PM

It matters if you divide by PAs or ABs.

Benny The Jet 10:10 PM

In my experience as a Tiger's fan, there is now a 100% chance that runner will score, most likely on an infield hit of some kind

Seuss2004 10:11 PM

Its hard to generate much enthusiasm when the White Sox have a 117% strikeout rate today

grill marks 10:19 PM

Sam A will be the ultimate floor next year.

Rich Hill's Fastball 10:19 PM

Here you go Brian547!

Matt Martell 10:20 PM

Forget about strikeout rate with two outs and Murakami up:

vs. LHP: 110 wRC+, .328 wOBA, xwOBA .364
vs. RHP: 138 wRC+, .368 wOBA, xwOBA .344

Results say Murakami is better vs. RHP, though xwOBA says the opposite. Cade Smith is the best pitcher in the bullpen and that was a crucial spot. I get it. But I like the Sabrowski matchup.

Matt Martell 10:21 PM

I also don't think any major league manager is going to bring in the closer in the sixth inning, no matter the leverage or whether it's the correct move. Teams just don't do it.

bosoxforlife 10:22 PM

That is how I was looking at it. The 6th was simply not the right time for Smith.

Ben Schneider 10:22 PM

Wasn't that Andrew Miller in 2016? haha

Matt Martell 10:23 PM

I don't want to say that it's definitely not the right time. It's just not the way managers do things rn

Benny The Jet 10:23 PM

I've never really understood this… it seems like the best RP should be the first RP brought into a leverage situation regardless of inning

Matt Martell 10:24 PM

This is a completely fair conclusion to draw. It's just not how teams operate

Matt Martell 10:26 PM

FWIW: Andrew Miller wasn't Cleveland's closer in 2016, even if he was the team's best pitcher. The closer was Cody Allen. Having two guys like that makes it easier to use one of them early

bosoxforlife 10:27 PM

Pitchers are not machines. They are people just like the rest of us and a closer reacts to a closing situation differently that he would to a non-close situation. The rush that he gets from closing just isn't the same earlier in the 6th.

Sean Dolinar 10:21 PM

That inverted xwOBA is crazy.

Yer Main Guy 10:27 PM

Could it be directional? Like a tendency to pull against righties that would make wOBA beat xwOBA?

Matt Martell 10:27 PM

Definitely could be

Matt Martell 10:22 PM

Truly — I think that will align with the rest over time. Small samples, etc.

Matt Martell 10:28 PM

Hahahahahaha Petey Halpin against a lefty again!

Phil 10:28 PM

How many runs would CLE have to score here for Smith to get pulled?

Brian547 10:29 PM

Given prior indications… ~42

coldbagel12 10:30 PM

Yeah, this is strong "the limit does not exist" territory

bosoxforlife 10:30 PM

I think we can say, without question, that Smith owns the 9th here.

Matt Martell 10:29 PM

Halpin OWNS Sean Newcomb

Ben Schneider 10:29 PM

Apparently at least 5, since he was left in with a six-run lead

bosoxforlife 10:32 PM

Gotta walk Kwan here!

Brian547 10:32 PM

Ok I legit think this is a troll

Ben Schneider 10:33 PM

Not a fan of intentionally walking the bases loaded

bosoxforlife 10:33 PM

Kwan is the best contact hitter in the game and you don't want him getting the bat on the ball with the infield in.

Brian547 10:34 PM

man that Jose guy sucks right

Seuss2004 10:37 PM

This is a whole lot of drama to serve as a prelude to three White Sox Ks to end the game.

bosoxforlife 10:39 PM

I would like to see 21 K's which would be a first in a 9 inning game.

Anonymous Member #46 10:41 PM

One, ah-ah-ahhhhh.

Anonymous Member #46 10:44 PM

TWO, ah-ah-ahhhhh.

Anonymous Member #46 10:45 PM

THREEEEEE, ah-ah-ahhhhh!

Phil 10:38 PM

This has been a very enjoyable game from a neutral perspective.

grill marks 10:41 PM

yikes

bosoxforlife 10:42 PM

I find it nearly incomprehensible that a team that has reached the LCS could strikeout at least 19 times in two out of three games.

jdbolick 10:44 PM

The White Sox are a great story but a very flawed team. They're here because the Astros were that bad.

MikeS 10:45 PM

96 in just 7 games in the postseason.

grill marks 10:44 PM

are you not entertained?

Seuss2004 10:44 PM

Luis Arraez struck out 21 times in 2025

Phil 10:44 PM

Benintendi is, sadly, not very good. This is not the career I thought he'd have c. 2016.

bosoxforlife 10:45 PM

I thought he was going to be something special as well.

jdbolick 10:50 PM

Nailing the projection for Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers in 2016 with pretty much perfect accuracy is my favorite victory lap.

Brian547 10:44 PM edited

serious question time… would benintendi be allowed to wear that belt if he was pitching? oops guess they all are

Phil 10:45 PM

21!!!!!

grill marks 10:45 PM

rays in 4.

Ben Schneider 10:46 PM

Rays will be massive favorites

bosoxforlife 10:46 PM

Now I hope Jose Ramirez can continue his magic in the ALCS.

jdbolick 10:46 PM

Cade Smith is nasty. Cleveland is going to be a much tougher matchup for the Rays.

Rich Hill's Fastball 10:46 PM

Chicago K Sox

Brian547 10:46 PM

maybe this smith guy is pretty good

Seuss2004 10:46 PM

Cleveland, sworn enemy of the Holy See

Brian547 10:47 PM

Bring it

Phil 10:47 PM edited

Rays will definitely be favored. But an all-midwest WS would be fun, to me.

grill marks 10:47 PM

The rays have 3 Cade Smiths.

Sean Dolinar 10:52 PM

Thanks everyone for showing up today! See everyone tomorrow for the start of the NLCS!

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BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
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PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG