You might be a bit surprised to learn just how rare 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances in the 2024 season, and just 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That means that each team should expect to see a 3-0 count just 1.4 times per game. That’s a whole lot fewer than I expected. Because of that scarcity, if somebody comes to you with statistics about a batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you can probably discount them as a small sample size aberration. That’s all the more true when you consider that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts turn into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns means that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). Once the batter gets ahead 3-0, there are very few actual at-bats taking place. So you don’t have to take this seriously if you don’t want to, but once he reaches a 3-0 count, Aaron Judge is putting together the greatest season in recorded history. I know that’s not exactly a shocking lede – Aaron Judge is good at something; film at eleven – but it’s fun, so hear me out.
In this case, recorded history starts in 1988. That’s the earliest year that Stathead lets you pull count-based splits. Those splits are slightly muddied by the fact that as far as Stathead is concerned, 3-0 counts include intentional walks. (That’s understandable, since until very recently, intentional walks still required pitchers to throw four actual balls. Still, it definitely skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to include PAs where the batter never saw a competitive pitch in count splits.) This season, Judge has been walked intentionally 18 times, but four of those passes only happened once the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll leave them and strip out the other 14.
That leaves Judge with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 count, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which also gives the Yankees far more 3-0 counts than any other team in baseball). In those PAs, Judge has walked 35 times, for a walk rate of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Judge is: Even though he ranks second in this split by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for 75th in ABs. Read the rest of this entry »
Podcasts hosted by athletes — I don’t know about all that. But I did enjoy a recent clip from Mookie Betts’ podcast where he was talking to Cal Raleigh, who was comparing Zack Wheeler — perhaps the best pitcher in baseball — to his batterymate Bryan Woo.
“[Wheeler] is kind of like Woo,” Raleigh said. “He glides down the mound. And it’s so effortless. Some guys just have that natural glide down the mound, easy, and [the ball] just gets on you.”
Coincidentally, in a conversation in late August, Phillies minor league pitching coach Riley McCauley made the same comparison.
The English language is full to overflowing with sailing idioms: Obvious ones, like “even-keeled,” and others, like “three square meals,” that hide in plain sight. And there’s a good reason. Our language originates from a nation of sailors. England’s global empire was built on, and maintained by, the strength of its navy and commercial shipping industry — naturally the jargon of that foundational trade came to dominate the language.
Hundreds of years and a Revolutionary War later (up yours, Charles Lord Cornwallis!), we Americans have built a language on baseball. Three strikes and you’re out. Home run. At least three different pitch types — fastball, curveball, screwball — have distinct non-sporting connotations these days.
I barely remember a time before I knew the ins and outs of baseball, and I suspect that most of you, reading this specialized website for baseball enthusiasts, have similar experiences. But even Americans who are indifferent to or mostly ignorant of the national pastime tend to know the basics just by osmosis. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
The long weekend gave me an opportunity to do a few things: (a) eat a whole bunch of food, (b) watch a whole bunch of baseball, and (c) take a look at the injured list and identify some players from around the league who ought to be helpful down the stretch or into the playoffs. Here are a few to keep an eye on.
But while the lineup has stabilized, the pitching remains far less settled, especially as we look ahead to how the Dodgers might construct a postseason rotation. Jack Flaherty is sure to be a member, and Gavin Stone is a strong option towards the back of a three- or four-man rotation. Beyond those two, however, things get pretty bleak. Walker Buehler‘s return from Tommy John surgery has been difficult. It would be unfathomable for him to be left off the playoff roster if he’s healthy, but the extent of his availability is unclear. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw’s first seven starts back from shoulder surgery were up and down, and now he’s back on the injured list with big toe inflammation related to a bone spur that he’s been dealing with for years. Even when he returns, Kershaw is entering the complementary phase of his career; he’s not enough on his own.
Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto could certainly provide an impact in the playoffs, but Dave Roberts‘ latest update was uninspiring, at least as it pertains to Glasnow. Reading tea leaves, it sure looks as if Glasnow will once again fail to qualify for the ERA title, something he’s yet to accomplish in nine years in the majors. I can’t say for sure that his barking elbow is the cause, but he pitched to a 5.29 ERA in his last six starts before hitting the injured list for the second time this season.
Yamamoto sounds as if he’s closer to returning, and was probably having a better season than Glasnow in his first 14 major league starts anyway. His starts were often truncated, as he averaged just under 5.2 innings per start even when ignoring his one-inning outing in South Korea, but he also threw 100 pitches in each of his four starts prior to the two-inning outing before his trip to the IL. A true workhorse would benefit the Dodgers greatly in October, lessening the load for a bullpen that, no matter the personnel, always seems to be beleaguered come the playoffs.
It might be a little overdramatic to say that the Dodgers’ playoff hopes hinge on Glasnow and Yamamoto making an effective return, but at the same time, wouldn’t you much rather have Glasnow/Yamamoto/Flaherty/Kershaw as your playoff rotation than Flaherty/Kershaw/Stone/Buehler?
The Arizona Three
The Diamondbacks have continued to perform pretty well lately, with a series loss to the Dodgers over the long weekend halting a nice run during which they’d won seven of eight games and two-thirds of their 27 games in August.
That they won many of those games without Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno is all the more impressive, but that of course doesn’t mean that they haven’t missed those three. Josh Bell has performed well enough at the plate in Walker’s stead and rookie Adrian Del Castillo has done the same for Moreno, but Bell’s fielding is a big step down from Walker’s Gold Glove first base defense and Del Castillo has thrown out just one of 22 attempted base stealers. Marte, of course, has been the club’s best and most consistent performer all season, with his 150 wRC+ tying a career high and his 5.3 WAR buoyed by strong defense at the keystone.
But as one player comes back from the IL, another takes his place, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. laid up due to a calf strain; the hope is that it’ll only keep him out 10 days. That leaves Jorge Barrosa and Randal Grichuk to cover left field, with Bell now likely to get DH plate appearances against lefties while Joc Pederson sits.
Once Moreno is back, Del Castillo will, like Bell, transition to being a valuable bench bat. Bell’s value as a switch-hitter is especially useful to Torey Lovullo’s in-game strategy.
Baltimore’s Bevy of Bats
The Orioles won’t be getting much more help on the mound than they have already. Zach Eflin just returned from shoulder soreness and Grayson Rodriguezcould return at some point, but Kyle Bradish, John Means, Félix Bautista, and Tyler Wells are all out for the season. The soon-to-return Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe are useful relief arms, but they aren’t a panacea to the club’s bullpen woes of late.
Fortunately, the Birds might just be able to outhit everybody once all their bats are healthy. Speedster Jorge Mateo is out for the rest of the season following elbow surgery, leaving Cedric Mullins and Gunnar Henderson as the team’s only big basestealing threats, but there really aren’t any other holes to poke in a full-strength O’s offense once Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, and Heston Kjerstad come back. In fact, there might be too many options for 13 spots, not that that’s a bad thing.
Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Westburg, and Colton Cowser should be in the lineup every game during the playoffs, though Cowser could sit against a tough lefty. Backup catcher James McCann, righty masher Ryan O’Hearn, Mountcastle, and Mullins are sure to be on the roster no matter what, as manager Brandon Hyde can mix and match depending on the opposing starter. That leaves just four spots (unless they go with 14 hitters, which is plausible) for the still inconsistent Jackson Holliday, lefty-mashers Austin Slater and Eloy Jiménez, Kjerstad, and top prospect Coby Mayo, who’s yet to find his footing in the majors but very well could in the remaining weeks. These things often have a way of sorting themselves out, and the first order of business for Hyde is winning the AL East, with the extra September position player spot helpful in evaluating candidates for the playoff roster.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr., and quantifying power/speed excellence and the White Sox somehow playing way worse under Grady Sizemore, follow up on hippos, A-Rod’s relationships, double plates/bases, 40-something hitters, player predictions, and one-pitch first strikeouts, and react to a new kind of bases-loaded walk and private equity’s incursion into youth sports. Then (52:12) they talk to Matthew DeSantis and Ramon Riesgo of the Bhutan Baseball & Softball Association about the origins, development, and future of baseball in Bhutan and the Hudson Valley Renegades’ recent Bhutan Night.
When Michael King’s season got off to a slow start, it was pretty easy to find the things that were going wrong. The walks, the homers, the short outings: I wouldn’t blame an analyst for doubting him. Oh, wait, that was me doubting King? Well that’s awkward, because he’s been exceptional ever since. But for someone with King’s profile – a kitchen-sink arsenal without a clear standout pitch and a history of working in relief – disaster never feels far off. So today I thought I’d highlight all the stuff that hasn’t gone wrong, because seeing King pitch is a good reminder that sometimes life is all about minimizing your weaknesses.
The first thing that could have gone wrong was decreased fastball velocity. King averaged 95.1 mph on his four-seamer in starts last year, but he was down around 93 mph through a month of play this season. He’s sitting 94 mph since the start of June, though, and his results on that pitch have improved markedly. He’s doing the same thing with his sinker: adding velocity and getting better results. To be fair, the results have been much better on his sinker than his four-seamer, but in both cases, they’ve improved quite a bit since the beginning of the year, and the improvement is the key here.
Pitching off of those two fastballs is particularly important for King, because he struggled mightily with falling behind in the count earlier this year. That led to a predictable dance. King would attack the zone with fastballs to get back into the count, and he’d sometimes fly too close to the sun. Given that his four-seamer is still crushable and he doesn’t consistently locate his sinker for strikes, he was getting himself into a lot of trouble and spending too much effort digging out of holes. Read the rest of this entry »
The Cardinals survived Willson Contreras‘ first extended absence due to injury, going 24-16 while their catcher/designated hitter was sidelined for six weeks due to a fractured left forearm. Despite his loss, the ineffectiveness of cornerstones Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and a host of other issues, they were still in contention for a playoff spot when the July 30 trade deadline approached — not in great shape, but with a roster worth augmenting for the stretch run. But by the time Contreras suffered a fractured middle finger on his right hand as a result of an errant Pablo López pitch on August 24, it was clear that this wouldn’t be the Cardinals’ year. They had already shaken up their roster with a couple of notable demotions, and by the end of the month, they let deadline acquisition Tommy Pham depart via waivers.
The Cardinals aren’t the only team whose playoff hopes withered some time between the trade deadline and Labor Day, just the one that made the most noise on the transaction wire. Based on the changes in our Playoff Odds, here are the teams that suffered the steepest declines from the close of play on July 29 (i.e., the day before the deadline) through Monday:
Largest Drops in Playoff Odds Since Trade Deadline
Team
W
L
W%
Div
WC
Playoffs
W
L
W%
Div
WC
Playoffs
Net Playoffs
Mariners
56
52
.519
40.6%
8.3%
48.9%
69
69
.500
2.5%
3.3%
5.8%
-43.1%
Red Sox
56
50
.528
1.5%
1.4%
42.0%
70
68
.507
0.0%
14.0%
14.0%
-28.0%
Cardinals
54
52
.509
7.9%
14.9%
22.7%
69
69
.500
0.0%
0.9%
1.0%
-21.7%
Giants
53
55
.491
0.4%
17.3%
17.6%
68
70
.493
0.0%
0.4%
0.4%
-17.2%
Pirates
54
52
.509
5.8%
10.1%
15.9%
64
73
.467
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-15.9%
Mets
56
50
.528
1.5%
50.0%
51.6%
74
64
.536
1.0%
34.7%
35.8%
-15.8%
All categories ending in 1 (W1, L1, etc.) as of close of play on July 29, all ending in 2 as of close of play on Sept. 2.
As we enter the final month of the season, there are a handful of clubs on the edge of the playoff picture whose play of late has made a few of the postseason races fairly exciting as the 2024 campaign winds down.
This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.
To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coinflip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps. Read the rest of this entry »
In the pre-PitchCom era, major league teams had more rigorous protocols for protecting their signs than your bank has for securing your account. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that some teams’ custom PitchCom audio clips are read in a modified pig latin created by a pitching strategy staffer. That the hitter doesn’t know what pitch is coming is considered a huge advantage for the pitcher. And it’s not only pitchers who think so — just ask the 2017 Astros.
Sign-stealing aside, hitters stand in the box pondering which pitch might come hurtling their way mere seconds later. What that pondering looks like depends on the hitter. There’s Nick Castellanos and his “glorified batting practice” approach, in which he looks for the ball and hits it as hard as he can. But there’s also Carlos Correa, who starts his day studying pitcher tendencies in the video room.
For their part, pitchers set the difficulty level on the hitter’s guessing game. That terms like “fastball count” and “pitching backwards” exist tell us that pitchers follow (and, at times, purposefully upend) conventional tactics to sequence their pitches, and believe that certain pitch types are optimal in certain counts. Strategies become standard practices because they’re effective, but an over-reliance on one or two strategies can lead to predictability. Become too predictable and a pitcher effectively sets their opponents’ guessing game on “easy” mode. But does making it easy for the hitter to sit on a certain pitch automatically make the overall task of hitting easier? Does keeping a hitter guessing always ensure effective pitching? Read the rest of this entry »
Lucas Erceg’s story is fairly well known. A position player for his first seven professional seasons, the 2014 second-round draft pick converted to the mound in 2021 and went on to make his big-league debut last May after being traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Oakland Athletics. The transition has been a resounding success. Now with the Royals — Kansas City acquired the 29-year-old right-hander at last month’s trade deadline — Erceg has eight saves to go with a 3.40 ERA, a 2.87 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over 50-and-a-third innings on the season.
Pitching and hitting are different animals, and that includes the data and technology used to help hone one’s craft at the professional level. With that in mind, I asked Erceg if the degree to which he is analytically-inclined has changed along with his job description.
“I’ve always been kind of minimal with that” Erceg told me prior to a game at Detroit’s Comerica Park. “I think the more I start to look at numbers, and hyper-focus on what they are telling me, the more I’ll overcorrect instead of just making those day-to-day progressions.”
Erceg feels that he was guilty of overcorrecting during his hitting days down on the farm. Looking back, he realizes that he was prone to listening to too many voices, and as a result ended up “kind of bouncing around from idea to idea, never finding consistency.” The potential — especially in the power department — was there, but he ultimately stalled out developmentally as a slugger. In his final season as a position player, Erceg slashed .219/.305/.398 in Triple-A.
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