Let’s start with a riddle: Team A and Team B have both played 98 games this season. Due to the vagaries of extra innings and unplayed bottoms of ninths, Team A’s pitchers have thrown four more innings than Team B’s pitchers. However, Team B’s pitchers have faced 259 more batters than Team A. How is this possible?

OK, yeah, so this was actually a pretty easy riddle. The answer is that Team B’s pitchers stink, while Team A’s pitchers are very good. Team A gets a higher percentage of batters out, which means that it faces fewer batters per inning. Let’s put some names and numbers to our hypothetical, shall we? Allow me to introduce you to the Mariners and the White Sox.

The Mariners have better pitchers and a better defense behind them. Consequently, the White Sox have allowed a whopping 130 more runs. But take a look at the last row of that table. The White Sox have thrown the most pitches in baseball, while the Mariners have thrown the second fewest. Having good pitching and good defense has allowed them to throw 1,477 fewer pitches than the South Siders. The average team throws 146 pitches per game, so we’re talking about 10 entire games’ worth of pitches. Ten games! That is a huge number, and these teams still have 64 games left to go. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Strahm making the All-Star team as a setup man with no saves is a bit of an anomaly. Especially because he didn’t take the Aaron Crow route — his team had its proverbial bases covered.

The Phillies are no. 1 in baseball in pitcher WAR. They’re no. 1 by a huge margin in starter WAR, and no. 2 (a tenth of a win behind a team that has both Emmanuel Clase and 16% more bullpen innings) in reliever WAR. So it’s no surprise that Philadelphia sent five pitchers to Texas among its NL record-tying eight All-Star representatives.

The fact that Strahm is third in his own bullpen in ERA, behind Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering, is mostly a testament to how good that unit has been overall. Strahm is second among relievers in FIP and tied for third in WAR. It’s not bad for a player who was an afterthought when the Phillies acquired him on the free agent market in December 2022, the same week Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker joined the organization. Read the rest of this entry »

Imagine an auction that takes place between three bidders. The item in question? An envelope filled with money. All three bidders employ teams of analysts that attempt to ascertain how much money is in the envelope, based on a variety of evidence that isn’t important for this analogy. Each bidder thus arrives at an estimate of the fair value of the envelope. Then they place a single sealed bid. The highest bidder out of the three gets the envelope.

What bidding strategy would you employ? Here’s a bad one: Just bid what your team of analysts calculates as the expected value of what’s in the envelope. The reason this is bad is known as the winner’s curse. If each bidder comes up with an estimate of fair value and bids that number, the winner will be the one with the highest estimate of fair value. In other words, you’ll only win if your estimation of the envelope’s value is higher than everyone else’s, and since you’re always paying exactly what you’re hoping to gain, you’ll tend to lose in the long run.

Allowing for a lot of approximation, this situation describes free agency in major league baseball. Every free agent has an unknowable amount of expected future production. Teams employ armies of analysts who attempt to estimate that production. Then, armed with that knowledge, they make contract offers to that free agent, in competition with other teams.

As I said, there’s a ton of approximation and simplification going on here. Players aren’t envelopes filled with money. Team context matters. Players don’t have to accept the highest bid. Tax regimes aren’t equal, and non-monetary incentives matter, too. Contracts are complex, and there’s no requirement that they be the same number of years, have the same number of options, no trade clauses, or anything of the sort. There’s no agreed-upon universal value system; different players present different value to different teams.

But that doesn’t mean the abstracted case has no use. As we approach the trade deadline, I think there’s one clear one: dispelling the myth that teams refuse to give up much to trade for a player who just signed a big free agent deal — after all, if they valued them enough for a blockbuster, they would have just offered a bigger contract, right? That’s a great soundbite, so you hear it all the time, but it doesn’t jive with established economic theory. Read the rest of this entry »

Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Sometimes it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t fully capturing the strength of a light-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case with the shortstops and some of the center fielders in this year’s batch of Killers. On the flip side, occasionally it’s easier to justify shaky defense if there’s at least a hope of getting adequate offense. Then there are the times that guys get hurt and somebody has to stand out there in the middle pasture looking like they know what’s going on.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of my enduring memories of watching the All-Star game as a child — a child who became a baseball fan in a time before high-speed internet, social media, or even interleague play — was learning about all the players I’d been unable to see throughout the regular season. That included the American League and West Coast stars, but also a parade of forgettable pitchers, and yes, it always seemed to be pitchers, from crappy teams.

For some reason, Royals right-hander José Rosado is the guy who sticks out in my mind. Rookie of the Year vote-getter in his age-21 season, All-Star at 22 and 24, done in the majors at 25. If he hadn’t shown up in pregame intros between Justin Thompson and Jeff Cirillo that one time, I might never have been aware of him. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the fun things about baseball (that’s also one of the fun things about life in general) is that at any moment you can look for and find something that you alone are seeing, that you alone are paying enough attention to notice, that you alone care about. Last Wednesday, the Twins finally lost to the White Sox. The Twins had won their first eight matchups with the South Siders, and they would beat the Sox again later that day. In fact, if not for the opportunity to pummel the White Sox at frequent intervals, Minnesota’s first half would look much different and much darker. But just this once, in the first game of Wednesday’s doubleheader, the Twins lost to the White Sox.

The bird showed up sometime during the first inning. It wasn’t there when Carlos Correa slapped the 11th pitch of the game through the right side for a single, but in the bottom of the inning, when Andrew Vaughn grounded into a 5-4-3 double play and the camera whipped around the horn to follow the ball, there it was — perched on a steel cable right above the on-deck circle as if it had been there forever.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Home Run Derby, the Futures Game and skills competition, Globe Life Field, All-Star uniforms, and more reflections from All-Star Week, then (34:18) discuss a challenge-system-driven change to broadcast K-zone displays, Chris Sale’s aversion to pitch-calling, quantifying game-calling, David Fletcher’s latest knuckleballing, using a position-player pitcher against a hitter who’s going for homer history, the shorthanded Dodgers rotation, a prediction about Aaron Judge, and a strikeout-rate plateau.

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Manfred on the unis
Link to K-zone story
Link to K-zone tweet
Link to Manfred ABS comments
Link to Sale interview
Link to EW on game-calling
Link to Fletcher game log
Link to Fletcher investigation
Link to BP on Stubbs
Link to Dodgers depth chart
Link to MLBTR on May
Link to Ryan call-up
Link to Wells prediction
Link to Wells tweet
Link to Wells tweet 2
Link to non-pitcher K rates
Link to Picard clip
Link to preseason predictions update
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

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He may not be playing in Arlington tonight, but Christian Walker just wrapped up an All-Star level first half. The Diamondbacks first baseman came into the All-Star break ranked third in the National League with 22 home runs, fifth with 66 RBI, and among the top 15 qualified batters in wOBA (.357), xwOBA (.365), and wRC+ (131). His 10 OAA are third-most among NL fielders, while his 7 DRS, 4.1 UZR, and 8 FRV are all the top marks at his position. Thanks to his spectacular defensive performance, the two-time Gold Glove winner is the only qualified NL first baseman who has provided positive defensive value at first despite the hefty positional adjustment. On top of that, he has played in all 97 of Arizona’s games so far, putting him on pace for more than 700 plate appearances this season.

Add his offense, defense, and durability together and you get 2.9 WAR, which places Walker in the top 15 among NL position players and top 30 in the majors. Considering that 46 position players were invited to the Midsummer Classic this year, it’s hard to deny that Walker is having an All-Star worthy season. At the same time, it’s also hard to get too fired to up about his “snub.” Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman have put up superior offensive numbers and WAR totals, rightfully earning the two guaranteed spots for first basemen on the NL roster. In addition, three NL players with more WAR and arguably even stronger All-Star cases than Walker were also left off the squad: Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Willy Adames. Finally, this isn’t even the most disappointing time Walker has missed out on a trip back to Globe Life Field within the past 10 months. Still, it’s a shame that Walker’s excellent first half will go unrewarded. At 33 years old, the late bloomer is putting together the best season of his career at the plate and in the field. Surely, that deserves to be celebrated. Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we have a two-fer of Killers lists covering a couple of key defensive positions, specifically the hot corner and behind the plate. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

Following the free agent departure of Willson Contreras, last year the catching corps of Yan Gomes, Tucker Barnhart, and rookie Miguel Amaya ranked 21st in WAR. Heading into this season, it made at least some sense on paper to have the 25-year-old Amaya — a former Top 100 prospect who lost significant development time to the pandemic and November 2021 Tommy John surgery — get more playing time while moving the 37-year-old Gomes, whose framing metrics had declined, into a backup role. Unfortunately, both have been terrible. Amaya has hit just .201/.266/.288 (59 wRC+) with average-ish defense (good blocking, poor throwing) en route to -0.1 WAR. Gomes was even worse both at the plate (.154/.179/.242, 15 wRC+) and behind it (-5 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) before getting released on June 21, replaced by Tomás Nido, who had just been released by the Mets. Nido has hit .202/.229/.331 (57 wRC+) overall but is just 4-for-41 as a Cub. Defensively, he’s got a mixed bag of metrics, though he’s been a whisker above average framing-wise. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Thursday, a Q&A titled “Chris Bassitt Embraces the Art of Pitching” ran here at FanGraphs. In it, the 35-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander discussed his diverse repertoire — “eight or nine pitches,” he told me — and how he uses them to attack hitters. Both stylistically and variety-wise, Bassitt is a close approximation of a pitcher who will represent the Kansas City Royals in tonight’s All-Star Game. That would be Seth Lugo.

The Royals were at Fenway Park last weekend, and with Boston being my home base, I took the opportunity to talk to the 34-year-old right-hander. I expected a conversation similar to the one I’d had with Bassitt, and I was by no means mistaken. Lugo, who boasts a 2.48 ERA and a 3.31 FIP this season, very much embraces the art of pitching.

———

David Laurila: How have you developed as a pitcher over the years?

Seth Lugo: “I would say that I’ve learned from failure. Coming up through the minors is different than pitching in the big leagues. Once you get to the big leagues you start to notice a pattern with how your mistakes are happening, whether it’s a pitch, sequences, or game situations. I think that learning from my mistakes has been the biggest thing for me.”

Laurila: You used to be known primarily for your curveball, and now you have a varied repertoire. How has your adding of pitches evolved?

Lugo: “Well, as a reliever I would usually just stick with my best two pitches and show one or two more, whether it be [against] a righty or a lefty, a changeup or a slider. When I was in San Diego last year, the pitching coach, Ruben Niebla, was talking about sweeper sliders. I’d never heard the term sweeper before. I didn’t really know what it meant. We started messing with some grips. He told me, ‘You can spin it good. You can spin some other stuff, so it doesn’t have to be just one pitch you’re spinning so well.’ That’s kind of how that came along.

“Growing up, I was always messing around with balls, whether it was a Whiffle Ball or a baseball. I was throwing pitches, just having fun. I’ve always had the ability to pick up a new pitch pretty quickly, so I realized that I can throw more than just three or four pitches in a game. Right now it’s up to 10 or 11. I’m keeping the hitters off balance and recognizing their swing paths, trying to make an adjustment before they do.”

Laurila: What is your full repertoire right now?

Lugo: “Two-seam, four-seam, cutter, change, split-change, sweeper, slow sweeper, one that I call the carry sweeper, slurve, curveball, and slider — a regular slider.”

Laurila: You’re basically Chris Bassitt…

Lugo: “I think I’ve got one or two more than him. I was also throwing a gyro sweeper earlier in the season — I haven’t thrown it in about four starts now — so then I had 12 pitches.”

Laurila: Gyro sweeper sounds counterintuitive…

Lugo: “Yeah. It’s like a one-seam gyro spin that catches. It’s a bigger horizontal break than a regular gyro slider. It’s not depth-y, but shoots to the left pretty good. A sweeper is going to have side spin. Gyros have bullet spin. A gyro sweeper is bullet spin, but with one seam… one seam that catches. A seam-shift gyro.”

Laurila: But you’re not actually throwing it now…

Lugo: “I’ll probably bring it back out. I was working through a couple of other things. Between that one and my slider they were starting to blend a little bit. But yeah, I’ll bring it back out one day.”

Laurila: How did you initially learn it?

Lugo: “I had someone reach out to me. He said that a lot of guys around the league are swinging and missing at gyro spin, and if you can find a way to get more sweeper action with gyro spin, that one’s pretty hard to hit. I think [Alec] Marsh throws a variation of that. Tinkering with a couple of grips, I found one that worked pretty good. But I kind of got away from it a little bit. I picked it up after a month, just this season, so I haven’t had a lot of time to work on it and find the consistency.”

Laurila: Who suggested the pitch?

Lugo: “A guy I know. I’ll leave it at that.”

Laurila: How many pitches did you have when you moved into a starting role last season?

Lugo: “In the offseason, I developed a different slider. I threw it for two months last year before I figured out the sweeper and the other pitches. It was like a slow slider, which I haven’t thrown since. So, it was two sliders, changeup, four-seam, sinker, curveball.”

Laurila: You’ve basically doubled the number of pitches you’re throwing…

Lugo: “In about a year, yeah. I was on the IL and that’s when I came up with a couple of pitches — in June, last year.”

Laurila: I assume you’ve used a lot of tech when developing pitches?

Lugo: “It’s actually more feel for me. Feel and just the horizontal and vertical movements. We’ve got the TrackMan. I don’t look at spin rates, really. I check on my curveball every once awhile, just to make sure it’s spinning like it should, but mostly it’s just horizontal and vertical movements that I look at.”

Laurila: Are you still throwing the same curveball?

Lugo: “Same curveball I’ve always had. I’ve just learned how to use other pitches off of it to make it perform better. My first couple years, with two strikes you were probably getting a curveball. That makes it easier to hit. Guys could eliminate pitches really easily. Now, having four or five pitches in their head when they get to two strikes makes the curveball perform even better.”

Laurila: Where do you think you’d be if you were still a reliever? Would you be as good as you are now?

Lugo: “Well, I wouldn’t have all of these pitches. I would say it would be similar to my career average. I would kind of be where I was.”

Laurila: With your ability to utilize a variety of pitches, starting seems like a natural fit.

Lugo: “Yeah. That and reading swings, and trying to get guys off certain pitches to save them for later in the game. Finding holes where I can go to them over and over. As a reliever, you’re only facing three or four guys, so they can be ambushing first pitch, or they could be taking to get a strike. It’s kind of a smaller game plan, tactic, to pitch as a reliever.

“As a starter, if a guy has a big hole you’re going to expose that hole. But if the guy is a pretty good hitter — he’s hard to get out — you’re going to show all of your pitches, and you’ve got to know where each of them fits. As I’m going over these hitters, we’re talking about where we’re going to throw each one. Some of them might not even be competitive, but I want them to look at it and think about it. I try to find a spot to throw every pitch, even if it’s a pitch they hit well. There is going to be somewhere they don’t hit it — it might be in the dirt — but we’re going to throw it.”

Laurila: You mentioned saving pitches. What is the value in not throwing something you know a hitter has a hard time handling?

Lugo: “So, let’s say it’s the four-hole hitter. This pitch is going get him out most every time — he’s got some weak contact on it — but he’s not going to swing and miss at it. There is no one on base and we’ve got a three-run lead. I’m not going to go straight to my best pitch to get him out; I’m going to save that for when there are two guys on and no outs. In a different situation, you pitch different. That also keeps it harder for guys to pick up my sequences.”

Laurila: Something I’ve asked a lot of pitchers is whether they view pitching as more of an art or as more of a science. I think I know what your answer would be…

Lugo: “It’s an art. I mean, science will help you. Like with anything, you can use science to make your techniques better. You can use it as a learning tool, but you can’t just plug it in. There are too many variables out there for it to work every time. Ultimately — at least to me — it’s not a science. It’s an art.”