In which ways would a fully-implemented Automated Ball-Strike System [ABS] impact pitching? According to a coordinator I spoke to, one effect could be a further increase in the number of power arms who can get away with attacking the middle area of the zone. Conversely, crafty finesse types will become even less common, as getting calls just off the corners will no longer be possible.
Count Chris Bassitt among those not enamored with the idea.
‘“If you go to a full ABS system, you’re going to develop more throwers and the injury rates are going to spike,” opined the 36-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander. “Then you’ll have to go back to pitching. The only way to stay healthy is to pitch. That’s never going to change in our sport. No matter how many people want to do something different, you have to pitch. There are obviously a number of facets for why people get hurt at the rate they’re getting hurt, but the answer for the injury history of the sport for the last five, ten years is more throwers. I don’t agree with it.”
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s positional power rankings progress and discuss why MLB is “evaluating” its Diversity Pipeline Program, then for the first time in a while answer listener emails (15:35) about how baseball would be different if swinging hard caused more serious injuries, a high-elevation league/division, inter-game penalties for frivolous end-of-game challenges, whether the challenge system will make umpires tone down their punchout calls, whether player-initiated challenges should be included in WAR calculations, split-squad games in the regular season, and limits on the number of NPB players per MLB roster, plus a real-time reaction (1:14:03) to the Chesapeake Oyster Catchers logo.
For some teams, designated hitter is a position, to be filled by a specific type of player with specific attributes, just like shortstop or center field. For others, it’s Purgatory, a way station for forgotten men who don’t hit well enough to hold down a regular lineup spot or don’t field well enough to play anywhere else. It should be very obvious from the tables below which teams fall into each of the two categories. Read the rest of this entry »
As spring training nears its conclusion, a few unsigned free agents have finally found homes. At best only one of these players will be ready for the majors in time to make the Opening Day roster, and all of them struggled to at least some extent last year, but at the very least, they’ll get another chance to extend their careers by providing depth to organizations hit by injuries. A double whammy of bad luck within their rotation has led the Rangers to sign lefty Patrick Corbin, while the Braves have triple dipped into the pool to sign catcher James McCann, outfielder Alex Verdugo, and reliever Craig Kimbrel.
On Tuesday, March 11 — the day I checked in on the Rangers in the wake of Jacob deGrom’s Cactus League debut — righty Tyler Mahle was scratched from his scheduled start due to forearm soreness, though he was able to take a start against minor leaguers on March 13 and returned to big league action on March 19. Texas wasn’t so lucky when it came to lefty Cody Bradford, who was scratched from his scheduled March 12 start due to left elbow soreness. He’s been shut down from throwing for four weeks and ticketed for the 15-day injured list to start the season; barring any further setbacks, a full buildup would bring him back in mid-May. Then on March 15, righty Jon Gray was hit by a line drive and suffered a fractured right wrist that knocked him onto the 60-day injured list. The break is clean enough that he won’t need surgery, but he’ll be out until at least June.
Given those injuries — and assuming no other ones occur — the Rangers are on track to start the season with an all-righty rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, deGrom (who threw a mere 10 2/3 innings for the Rangers last September after returning from his second Tommy John surgery), Mahle (who threw just 12 2/3 innings between his return from Tommy John surgery and a season-ending bout of shoulder tightness), and former first-round picks Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, who each made their debuts last year. Rocker made three starts totaling 11 2/3 innings while pitching reasonably well, but Leiter was lit for an 8.83 ERA in six starts and three relief appearances totaling 35 2/3 innings. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, starting early because I have much to do and there are already lots of questions in the queue.
12:00
Eric A Longenhagen: My work slate: James Fegan and I are working to wrap up to Blue Jays list, which will run early next week when Meg has the bandwidth to do something other than just PPRs. After that I’ll be solo’ing the Orioles list. I’ve been on a backfield or two every day this week to lay track for the lists that will follow Baltimore: CLE, LAD, CHW, CIN, MIL…
12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m writing my PPR (relievers) and my chunk of a Bold Prediction post, both of which will also run next week.
12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I might cut short chat at like 45 min today because I’m going to start my day at either Camelback Ranch or in Maryvale and then wrap it in Maryvale for the night big league game, and I’ve gotta write betwixt and between those.
12:02
Birds: Zach Fruit has had two pretty impressive spring outings, the second against a lineup of BOS regulars. Stuff+ grades strong from public models. Can he stick as a starter?
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Fruit’s stuff is way up (one of a couple Orioles for whom that is true) and he’s been sitting like 97. Looks reliever-y to me, but it’s great that his stuff is up this much.
Want to hear something crazy? Aaron Judge is switching back to right field after an 11.2-WAR campaign, but this year’s top right field projection is still nearly half a win below last year’s. There is obviously some logic behind this: Last year, Ronald Acuña Jr. was younger than Judge and was coming off his own monstrous 2023 campaign. He also plays for a team with a penchant for driving its starters until the wheels fall of, so we had him projected for nearly every single plate appearance. But still, with Judge in right field again, we should probably expect bigger things. The Yankees’ right field projection trails only one other position player spot, Kansas City’s (and Bobby Witt Jr.’s) shortstop projection, and it trails by just one-tenth of a win. Read the rest of this entry »
Dylan Cease was 21 years old and coming off of his first full professional season when Eric Longenhagen evaluated him for our Chicago Cubs Top Prospect list in January 2017. Cease was then ranked seventh in the system, with Eric assigning him a 45 FV and suggesting that he was more likely a reliever than a starter down the road. Cease has obviously followed a more successful path. Now 29 and about to begin his seventh big league season, and second with the San Diego Padres, the right-hander has been a top-shelf starter for four years running. Over that span he has toed the rubber 130 times — no pitcher has started more games — and logged a 3.52 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. Twice he’s finished top four in the Cy Young Award voting.
What did Cease’s 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Cease to respond to it.
———
“Cease has done an admirable job at quelling what was once a violent head whack while still retaining the kind of velocity that made him an exciting prep prospect.”
“That sounds kind of like an old-school baseball thing,” Cease responded. “But… I don’t know. Maybe that was a thing? I know that I had a very long arm stroke. I’d have to see video, but I don’t recall it being like crazy violent. Usually, if you’re a starter you’re not too violent. Maybe it was, but my having very long arm action was the most memorable thing.”
“He was also flashing a plus curveball in the 79-81 mph range during instructs, but the pitch is more consistently average and, at times, below when it featured an easily identifiable, shapely hump out of his hand.”
“It’s funny, because there was no Trackman data,” Cease said. “If it was today, it would be like, ‘It’s moving at 15 or 18,’ or whatever. But yeah, while my curveball is pretty good, it’s never been my biggest swing-and-miss [pitch] or anything like that. So I would say that was probably fairly accurate; it did pop out sometimes. I actually don’t [throw a curveball] as much anymore.”
“There are several concerns about Cease, ranging from his size to his command to a lack of a third pitch; he has very little changeup feel right now.”
“That’s never changed, the changeup part of it,” Cease agreed. “I’ve never really been a plus-command pitcher either. I have my spurts, but for the most part it’s just getting my good stuff in the strike zone. I’ve also never been the biggest, but here we are.”
“Cease actually pitches with a good bit of plane when he’s working down, because of his vertical arm slot.”
“That sounds right,” he replied. “My slot is the same now, but with shorter arm action. I feel like that changed in my first or second year in the big leagues. It just happened. I was working on my lower half, and for whatever reason it just kind of played out that way.”
“His fastball has enough life to miss bats up in the zone when he’s missing his spots.”
“I think that’s just saying when I’m throwing heaters up in the zone, even if they’re out of the zone, sometimes I get the swings and misses,” Cease reasoned. “Basically it’s got good life. As for [the part about missing spots], honestly, I think I was just trying to throw it over; I was just trying to get it in the zone.”
“I’ve gotten a Yordano Ventura comp on Cease — undersized, hard-throwing righty with good curveball feel.”
“That’s pretty good,” Cease said with a nod of the head. “I mean, Yordano threw a little bit harder than me, but we both had lively arms.”
“He projects as a potential mid-rotation arm if the changeup and command improve, but he’s more likely to wind up in relief.”
“I do remember seeing that a lot as a young player, the bullpen aspect,” Cease recalled. “But yeah, pretty much it was, am I going to develop a third pitch, or get one or two pitches that are swing-and-miss, that can buy me multiple times through the order? I added a slider, which I didn’t have at that point. So I added my best pitch. I always had the velo, and if you have two good pitches you can kind of sprinkle in everything else and have them essentially play off each other. That’s worked out for me.”
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs authors Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens play “College Baseball Player or Musician Who’s Performing at Sea.Hear.Now 2025” (4:53), and then explain the third annual preseason predictions game (11:53) and make 10 bold predictions apiece (18:57) about baseball in 2025, to be voted on by listeners.
As someone who runs a lot of projections, I’m used to being very wrong. Of the approximately 4,000 players projected every season, some 800 or so will fail to meet their 10th-percentile projection or exceed their 90th, meaning ZiPS, and by extension Dan Szymborski, will be/look horribly wrong. There’s still time before the start of the regular season to put myself into even greater jeopardy, meaning it’s time for my annual list of favorite booms and busts. The concept for these is simple, in that these are my picks for players to change how they are currently perceived. Sometimes it’s because of a projection, sometimes because of a hunch, a gut feeling, or just something I think projections might not be capturing. Since we’re going on a limb here, there will be some epic failures, and maybe [prayer emoji] even a success or two.
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