Last week, I did a radio hit in Baltimore to talk about the Orioles’ five-year extension for right-handed starter Shane Baz. As you might expect, I got asked for my general impressions of the Orioles’ rotation, and I gave an answer I did not expect to be controversial: I like Baltimore’s rotation, and I’m quite fond of Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish, the top two starting pitchers. That said, the Orioles don’t have a clear no. 1-quality starter, which could end up as a weakness in a playoff series.
“Ace” and its synonyms are fuzzy in meaning, so I’ll define my terms as clearly as I can: I meant that the Orioles don’t have a starting pitcher who can be expected to go up against one of the top pitchers in the league and fight him to a draw for six innings. I’ll give an example from last year’s World Series: I think Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a better pitcher than Kevin Gausman — and sure enough, Yamamoto beat Gausman twice in as many attempts — but the difference isn’t so great that you’d be able to tell over one start.
I got some pushback on social media — some of it quite intense — from Orioles fans who like their chances with Rogers against Tarik Skubal. Every sports fan thinks they’re the center of the universe these days, and accordingly that everything about their team is better than the biased national media will give them credit for. (Except White Sox and Twins fans, who think everything about their team is even worse than the biased national media realizes.) Even if that weren’t true, I would ordinarily never admit to treating randos on X, the Everything App, like an assignment editor. That way lies madness. Read the rest of this entry »
We’ve released a new tool in the FanGraphs Lab. The Paired Pitches tool is a visualizer that shows how the different pitches that a pitcher throws interact with each other. It measures how much gravity, speed, and movement make each pitch diverge from a common center point. It’s probably easiest to start with a picture. This is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s pitch mix as shown in the Paired Pitches tool:
To use the tool, you pick a pitcher, pick a pitch, and then click anywhere on or around the strike zone to locate that pitch. The tool then locates every other pitch the pitcher throws in relation to that pitch. You can drag any pitch in the resulting graphic to move the locations around, and they’ll remain paired with each other, with the same relative movement distribution:
If you’re wondering why a hitter might swing over a Yamamoto slider in the dirt, it’s because its initial trajectory looks a lot like a middle-middle fastball. If you’re wondering why they might take a cutter on the corner, well, it’s because it looks a lot like a slider in the dirt.
Now for a quick math interlude: The way this tool works is by assuming that each pitch is released from a distinct release point, but aimed so that they would intersect at the same point on the two-dimensional plane of the strike zone if they continued traveling from their release point to home plate with no effects from spin or gravity. Think of it as where a pitch would “go” if you just drew a straight line in the direction the ball is moving immediately upon leaving the pitcher’s hand.
Conveniently enough, that idea of measuring movement in comparison to an imaginary, no-acceleration world and plotting intersect points at home plate is exactly how the math of pitch movement already works. The Paired Pitches tool just does the math for every pitch as though they were “aimed” at a point that puts the anchor pitch wherever you want it.
In practice, that’s sometimes but not always how pitchers use their pitches. Pitchers pair some of their pitches, some of the time, and in different combinations. Take Garrett Crochet. He can pair an in-zone fastball with a diving changeup against righties:
Against lefties, he works off of his sinker, turning the zone into a horizontal nightmare for batters. His sinker lives inside, his sweeper dives away, and he can even use the cutter/sinker pairing to get called strikes on the inner half. The same pitches, paired in different locations, have different effects, which is why you can drag them around in the tool and change anchors:
Now that I’ve shown you how much fun it is to pair pitches and think along with pitchers and catchers, it’s time for a few caveats. This shorthand way of explaining how pitches diverge on their path home isn’t going to explain everything about pitching overnight. Curveballs, in particular, don’t fit into this paradigm well. Pitchers don’t “aim” them, in terms of initial trajectory, at the same spot as their fastballs. Curveballs are so slow that they’d just fall too far on the way home. Instead, pitchers aim at a higher point, which helps explain the distinctive “hump” out of the hand that sometimes helps batters pick them up.
We don’t claim that this tool captures everything about pitch interaction. Pitchers can and do select pitches for how they look compared to one another, but they also employ plenty of other tactics. They might want to throw a pitch on a completely different trajectory than the previous one to change the batter’s eye level. They might want to throw a slider that doesn’t tunnel with anything to take advantage of a batter who doesn’t swing at spin early. But frequently, they want to pair a fastball in with a sweeper away and get batters to swing at both of them:
Below, I’ve compiled a list of tips, tricks, and frequently asked questions from some early testing of this tool:
Bubble sizes are proportional to the movement variation of each pitch. Pitches with variable movement profiles like splitters and changeups have larger bubbles because their movement is less certain from one pitch to the next. Fastballs tend to have smaller variations in their movement. You can change the bubbles to be baseball-sized in the settings.
If a pitch isn’t showing up, it’s probably because that pitcher hasn’t thrown enough of them in the filter/time frame you’re looking at. You can lower the minimums in the dropdown.
This tool, and all Lab tools, now have copy and download options. If you want to share a picture of it, we want you to be able to.
I think the separation lines look pretty sharp, but they can be toggled off in settings.
If you’re using this to think like a pitcher, remember that fastballs pair best with different pitches depending on where they’re located.
Since we’re calculating a lot of pitch metrics and also location, we dynamically calculate vertical approach angle in the Pitch Metrics tab. It’s a great interactive lesson in how much plate location influences approach angle.
Go look at Nolan McLean’s arsenal. It’s so fun – and this tool explains why he has a hell of a time commanding his curveball.
Sean and I expect to make feature updates to the Paired Pitches tool in the coming weeks and months. This version was good enough to release, but we’re still making improvements of our own. We also want to hear what improvements you’d make, so please give us feedback via the menu that pops up on every Lab page.
Batters swing slower in the cold, but I’m not sure that it matters.
Bat speed goes down when it’s cold, and it goes up when it’s hot. This is something that’s both literally true and curiously linear. We can see in the plot below that bat speed climbs bit by bit as temperature rises from chilly to toasty:
My first thought is this makes sense. It’s reasonable to assume batters don’t swing as fast when their muscles are stiff and their hands are numb. I’ve been cold before, and yeah, it’s difficult to perform tasks requiring fine motor skills.
My second thought is I’m skeptical. Notice the scale of the plot. All that movement amounts to about 0.6 mph from the coldest games to the warmest games. Lots of things other than temperature could be driving this relationship. Bat speed goes down with velocity. Velocity goes up with relievers. Relievers enter games late. Temperature goes down at night. You can see how this could get tricky.
Mostly, we treat the Los Angeles Angels like the friend whose life is a wreck but there’s nothing you can do about it because they’ll never ask for help and won’t take advice. So you just check in on the AL West standings every so often and feel a combination of pity and helplessness.
Well, you can take your pity and shove it, because as I write this the Angels are in first place in the division. Tied for first place, at one game over .500, but it still counts. Much as Jo Adell’s three-robbery night on Saturday won fawning headlines, and much as Zach Neto’s four home runs are leading the offense, there is one man driving this train: José Soriano. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Carter Jensen’s several (inadequate) alarms and why big leaguers don’t oversleep more often, Artemis II, Daniel Susac as the sequel to Andrew Susac, the timing of Konnor Griffin’s call-up, the many ways to marvel at (and value) Jo Adell’s home-run-robbery spree, Patrick Corbin the Blue Jay, a quintessentially 2026 half-inning, and follow-up emails, plus (1:40:47) a postscript featuring an Afterball by Ben about national announcer stats.
Robert Edwards, Rick Scuteri, Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Until this weekend, baseball’s injured list was noticeably bare to start the 2026 season. Then, beginning with Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk on Friday, the stars went down in rapid succession. The Cubs lost two of their top starting pitchers, Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd, in consecutive days. Joining them on the IL are two of the top players in the National League, Mets left fielder Juan Soto and Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts, and one of the best pitchers in the American League, Astros ace Hunter Brown. Each of those three teams has a share of first place at the moment, making these especially high-leverage injuries. Read the rest of this entry »
Brendan Gawlowski: Nice that we have some actual minor league games to go off of. I’m sure we’ll all responsibly digest the first week without getting too excited and overreacting to oh who am I kidding
2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Housekeeping: Meg has been taking a much deserved few days off, which may complicate the publish dates, but my understanding is that Eric is very close to producing an A’s list and I’m nearly there on Rangers. Look for those soon.
2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s get to it
2:04
Guest: It’s only 3 innings but apparently Landen Maroudis was back to 94-96 and throwing strikes. How much would that change his outlook to get back to his ‘24 self, top 100 type arm talent?
2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t know about T100 but very encouraging first start, I was really worried for him. Couldn’t throw strikes, stuff down, looked bad in 2025.
This isn’t how they drew it up on the North Side this winter. The Cubs won 92 games in 2025, and then they made some additions in the winter. The Brewers, meanwhile, subtracted. Chicago had the best playoff odds of any team in the NL Central, whether you’re talking about our odds, PECOTA’s odds, or pretty much any projection system you can name. The Cubs had exciting rookies, battle-tested veterans, and fun vibes. Surely, they’d sail through 2026.
Nearly two weeks into the season, it’s fair to say that things haven’t gone according to plan. There’s the standings, for one thing: They’re in last place in the NL Central. But this early in the year, only four games separate first and last in the division, so that’s not the biggest problem in Wrigleyville. A bigger concern is that Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd, two of Chicago’s top starting pitchers, hit the IL on consecutive days. Seiya Suzuki hasn’t appeared yet this year, though he’s expected back on Friday.
Horton’s injury looks to be the worst of the two. He left last Friday’s start after feeling forearm discomfort, and after getting some scans over the weekend, he’s seeking a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister. That ominous turn of phrase doesn’t guarantee a long-term injury, of course, but it’s definitely not a good sign. Pitchers don’t generally seek second opinions from famous surgeons unless there’s a decent chance of surgery.
Boyd was supposed to be the safe option in the Cubs rotation. We had him down for the most innings and the most WAR, the staff ace. His bicep strain might not be all that bad; he noted that he could have pitched through the injury if it weren’t so early in the year. But that’s not really the nature of pitcher injuries, in my experience. Sure, sometimes they’re short. But a guaranteed minimum stay doesn’t exist. I think it’s reasonable to be worried about Boyd’s prognosis until he’s back on a major league mound, even though he seems likely to return far sooner than Horton. Read the rest of this entry »
Mark Grant is one of the game’s most entertaining color analysts. Teamed with play-by-play announcer Don Orsillo, the man affectionately known as “Mud” is a big part of why the San Diego Padres TV booth polled as baseball’s best in Awful Announcing’s 2025 local broadcaster rankings. Now in his 11th season alongside Orsillo, Grant first began working Padres games in 1996. His previous partners in the booth include the legendary Dick Enberg.
Grant was a pitcher prior to becoming a broadcaster, toeing the rubber for six teams across the 1984-1993 seasons, including the Padres, with whom he made 126 of his 233 appearances. All told, he went 22-32 with eight saves and a 4.31 ERA over 638 2/3 innings.
How well does he remember his matchups against certain batters he faced? As I’ve done previously with David Cone, Mark Gubicza, and Jeff Montgomery — those pieces can be found here, here, and here — I decided to find out by challenging him to a career quiz. Not only did he oblige, he supplied fun anecdotes along the way.
I began by asking the pitcher-turned-broadcaster which batter he faced the most times. Read the rest of this entry »
The Blue Jays have lost another key player to injury.
Alejandro Kirk left Friday’s game against the White Sox in the 10th inning after a foul tip glanced off his glove hand. He immediately dropped his glove, grabbed his thumb, and hustled into the clubhouse with trainers. The team after the game announced Kirk had fractured his thumb. No timeline for a return was given. Our injury log suggests batters with thumb fractures typically return in about four to eight weeks, although Kirk fractured the thumb on his catching hand, which could require a longer recovery.
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Give a Gift Subscription
Effectively Wild Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
Apple Podcasts Feed
Spotify Feed
YouTube Playlist
Facebook Group
Bluesky Account
Twitter Account
Get Our Merch!
