12:00

Dan Szymborski: A rarity! Dan is on time and not distracted by arguing something with someone elsewhere

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Most strongly (since it’s most recent), but it’s also treated like a league between AA and AAA

12:01

Dan Szymborski: That doesn’t mean the best players aren’t as good as MLBers, but the depth of talent isn’t the same, and a pitcher/hitter will face mostly non-MLB talents’

12:02

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees NPB as between AAA and MLB

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We’ve made two major updates to the FanGraphs Lab. Below, you’ll see an overview of the new capabilities. You can also see a list of all of the Lab upgrades and bug fixes, minor and major, here. Sean has been busy elsewhere, too, which you can read about here.

Squared-Up Explorer
The initial iteration of the Squared-Up Explorer used a pre-calculated dataset to handle the extensive transformations that take a raw set of batted ball data and turn it into an interpolated chart. We used that method to get the tool in front of people as quickly as we could, but the long-term goal was always to connect to the main FanGraphs database to allow more years of data, finer slicing, and increased flexibility across the board.

Sean and David Appelman built the necessary tools to handle the data processing in the background, before it ever hits Squared-Up Explorer. That expanded the capabilities of the tool significantly. Sean and Ben then rebuilt the user interface with the new capabilities in mind. Want to see how Kyle Schwarber hit for so much more power in 2025 than he did in 2024? You can compare his swing:

Want to dig into Cal Raleigh’s tendencies from each side of the plate? We’ve got you covered:

Want to look into Michael Harris II’s wild first-half/ second-half splits? It’s as simple as deciding which date ranges you care about. It turns out that your batted ball results will improve if you just square up everything more frequently, and get more balls in the air while you’re at it:

With the new data architecture in place, you can select by batter handedness, pitcher handedness, pitch type, and even time span. Mookie Betts against lefty four-seamers early in the year? Sure thing. Ozzie Albies batting righty against sinkers? You can do that too. You can even compare someone to another player or themselves over a different time period, against a different pitch type, or any permutation of these options.

Slicing up aggregated data into tiny sample sizes like this is definitely going to result in some weird charts. For example, here’s what Aaron Judge did against curveballs in 2025:

With so few observations, extreme values are bound to happen, like the multiple launch angles where Judge squared up every curveball he put into play. When you split things this minutely, be aware that the resulting charts are descriptive but volatile. There aren’t that many batted balls of separation between 2025 and 2024 here, and yet the charts and interpolated lines look quite different:

We mention that merely as a word of caution as you interpret results, not to say that you can’t use the Explorer this way. Batters really do have different swing profiles against different pitch shapes, and it’s fun to investigate that visually. Just take the results with a grain of salt, the same way you would with any small-sample baseball dataset. We’ve added a line to the summary statistic table showing the number of batted balls that make up each graph so that you can see for yourself. For example, Judge’s two years of data cover 17 and 18 curveballs, respectively.

We’ve also added a few other upgrades to complement the newly available data. Hovering over a frequency bubble now displays launch angle, squared-up rate, and relative frequency. The interpolation behavior has been updated to change dynamically with the chart orientation. We’ve also added detail to the legends and descriptors to make it easier to see which split you’re viewing. Try it out – we think you’ll like the upgrades.

Hot Streak Tool Update
We received a huge number of feature requests to upgrade our Hot Streak tool, and Sean bundled many of them into a single large update.

Opponent Information
Each game now displays the opposing team, opposing team’s starting pitcher, and that pitcher’s handedness. In addition, the opposing team’s name is a link to that team’s Hot Streak page:

More Stats
We’ve added wOBA, xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA to the statistics that are available to chart. We’ve also added the ability to display two statistics stacked on top of each other in the same table. Want to see power and contact together? Now you can:

More Context
Even when you’re displaying two statistics at once, valuable data could still be missing. Our solution? A tooltip with a detailed line score for each player and game:

More Sortability
Want to see the most recent games first? You can now choose between oldest-to-newest and newest-to-oldest.

That’s the latest and greatest in the FanGraphs Lab. We hope you’ll enjoy trying out these enhancements. And if these tools aren’t quite your speed, stay tuned. We’ll be addressing team strength and pitch pairings in our next release, and we have a few other ideas percolating.

As part of our effort to build the best possible version of FanGraphs, we regularly roll out new site features and refine existing ones. It can be easy to lose track of all the changes, so we thought it would be useful to start giving a semi-regular overview of what we’ve been doing on the development side of the site. This is the first of those updates, with a focus on the new tools we’ve added over the offseason, as well as the work we’ve done recently to improve Member features and your experience of the site.

First, here are a few important updates we’ve already announced, in case you missed them:

• FanGraphs Lab, with a significant update announced just today!
• OOPSY Peak Projections for Members
• THE BAT X for Pitchers
• Bat Tracking Stats on the player pages and leaderboards
• Contract Summary Information on the RosterResource Payroll Pages
• Incentive Data on the RosterResource Payroll Pages
• Updated Fantasy Presets in the Auction Calculator

Member Customization Features

Members have been able to create their own player page dashboards since 2024, but now you are able to further customize the settings of some of the cards by pressing the gear icon (⚙) in the top right corner of the card:

• Spark Graphs: You can now pick your stats based on what we have available in the Game Logs. You are even able to use the Spark Graphs in multiple slots in your dashboard and feature different stats on each one.
• Heat Maps: You can now set your default stat.
• Stuff+ and PitchingBot: You can choose your default model (Stuff+, Location+, or Pitching+ for Stuff+, and Stuff, Command, or Overall for PitchingBot).
• News: You can filter by article type (FanGraphs/RotoGraphs), and choose to hide injury information or the Rotowire news lines.

As a reminder, custom cards currently need to be set separately for pitchers and batters, so you’ll need to configure your dashboard for a pitcher and a batter initially. You can’t change your cards as a non-Member, but you can open the dialog box and preview the available options.

App Updates

If you haven’t used the FanGraphs app in a while, a lot has changed. Over the past few months, we have made the following updates:

• Added comments on articles
• Added several RosterResource pages:
  • Platoon Lineups
  • Closer Depth Charts
  • Transaction Tracker
  • Offseason Tracker
  • Opening Day Tracker
• Added some of the site’s simpler leaderboards:
  • WAR Leaders
  • Spring Training Leaders
  • College Leaders
  • KBO Leaders
  • NPB Leaders
• Updated our Win Expectancy Graphs and Box Scores to match the site’s update (more on that below)
• Added Pythagorean and BaseRun Records (available under Standings)
• Added Playoff Odds Graphs (available under Standings)
• Members can share articles from the app
• Members can customize their bottom tab bar

Tool Updates

At the very end of last season, we updated the Win Expectancy Graphs to use team colors, and we flipped the y-axis to more naturally reflect the home and away teams:

We’ve improved our box scores to reflect more familiar formatting:

The individual full game stats lines have also been overhauled to look more like our current player page tables:

We updated and moved the Season Schedule and Results from the Team pages to the Scores pages:

The Playoff Odds Graphs have been updated to include all of the available projection systems we run for the Playoff Odds:

Speaking of graphs, our WAR Graphs tool, which allows you to compare players’ season and career WAR, has a new look:

We added the ability to look at previous seasons of Pythagorean and BaseRun Records. Because of stat limitations through the years, we currently only have BaseRun records back to 2002. We also spiffed up the Projected Standings page, though those are still only available for the upcoming or current season:

The RosterResource Coaches Breakdown has been updated to include information for 2025 and 2026:

You can filter players by their option status on the Opening Day Tracker, isolating those without minor league options remaining:

Flair

Ever since pitchers and catchers reported, we have given Members the option to have a Florida or Arizona banner at the top of their screen:

We have also given Members the option to hang the WBC Flags below the site’s header:

You can turn these features on and off using the User Menu in the top right corner with your user name in it.

Have questions? Leave them in the comments below, and if you have any suggestions for site features, be sure to let us know. And lastly, a thank you to our Members! Membership is the best way to ensure that we are able to continue to grow and improve the site, and support our staff. We couldn’t do it without you!

MIAMI — It was the most anticipated, cacophonous World Baseball Classic game of the week, a raucous rivalry featuring the national teams of two baseball-obsessed cultures playing in front of some of the loudest fanbases in professional sports. With air horns blaring, drums pounding, and more than 36,000 people shouting for the entirety of the game’s three-hour run time, the Dominican Republic outslugged and outlasted Venezuela, 7-5, on Wednesday night at loanDepot park.

All that for a game that didn’t matter much. Sure, the winner would finish first in Pool D and not have to face reigning WBC champion Japan in the quarterfinals, but South Korea is also a formidable foe. And yes, the winner would also have a better opportunity to secure one of the two spots in the 2028 Olympics reserved for non-United States teams from the Americas. But no matter the result of Wednesday night’s game, both teams would still have a chance to earn both the WBC title and an Olympic berth.

And yet, from another perspective, the game meant everything, because for the fans of these two countries, baseball means everything. Read the rest of this entry »

The Angels haven’t changed. It’s Mike Trout who is worse.

The Angels are bad. It’s the truest thing about them. Their hitting is bad, their pitching is bad, their fielding is bad, and everything else is bad, too. This isn’t breaking news. They’ve finished below .500 each year since 2015, the only team not to make the postseason in that time. But expectations have reached a new low as we enter 2026:

I was initially skeptical of these figures, or at least the direction of them. How could the Angels possibly be going backwards? They don’t seem to be rebuilding, and their depth chart looks the same as ever: a few truly good players, a few players who would be good if they were playing a different position (or perhaps in a different organization), a few players who were drafted far too recently, a few aging veterans who were nearly All-Stars at one point, and Trout. Read the rest of this entry »

RotoGraphs is now accepting applications to join our staff as a contributing writer.

Contributors typically write two to three times a week. Familiarity and comfort with fantasy baseball and the data on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for writers who can generate their own ideas and questions while providing interesting analysis and commentary on the game of fantasy baseball. From standard roto redraft to long-term keeper leagues, identifying intriguing prospects and breakouts to managing a fantasy roster, we want to cover it all.

We use rigor, creativity and the latest analytical tools to provide useful, interesting insights and advice to fantasy managers. And while we take our responsibility to support fantasy managers seriously, we’re also willing to be silly and keep things light. After all, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun! Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, the Reds sent Hunter Greene for imaging on his throwing elbow. Never a good sign for the no. 1 starter on a team that made the playoffs last season. In those situations, we on the outside are usually conditioned to fear the worst, or at least Tommy John surgery, recovery from which — while all but routine these days — takes more than a year.

Only in that context could Tuesday’s news be taken as positive: Greene will have surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. (In fact, as you read this, he may have already undergone the procedure.) The recovery time is expected to be on the order of three to four months, but losing an ace until the trade deadline is much better than losing him until 2027.

This is a banner year for bone chips and loose bodies. The Braves alone have two starters — Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach — on the IL after receiving similar treatment. Actually, since we’re talking about bone chips, this feels like a good excuse to talk about Dazzy Vance. Read the rest of this entry »

The baseball season will soon be upon us, which means it’s time for an age-old question: How long until the best hitter’s reign ends? This year, and seemingly every year of late, that means Aaron Judge. You can quibble about who the best overall player is, but Judge is pretty clearly the best offensive player on the planet. Over the last four years, he has a composite 204 wRC+, miles clear of the competition, and he just put up that exact number in 2025. In 2026, we think he’s going to be the best hitter again, obviously.

Will we in 2027, though? It depends, of course. If Judge looks like his usual self this year, it’s hard to imagine anyone taking the crown. I wanted a little bit more rigor than that, however, so I dusted off the Marcel projection methodology. Marcel is what Tom Tango dubbed the minimum sufficient projection system. It’s as simple as taking the last three years of performance, weighting them, and tossing in some league average.

Let’s take Judge’s last few seasons as an example. I grabbed his wOBA and plate appearances for 2023-2025 and threw them into a table. Then I calculated league average across those three years (the exact calculation uses some weighting to match Judge’s playing time by season). That looks like this:

Turning those into a Marcel projection is simple. Multiply the most recent year’s plate appearances by five, the next-most-recent year’s by four, the next by three, and the league average by two. Take a weighted average of these new values. The result is Judge’s 2026 Marcel projection – which works out to a .440 wOBA. That tracks logically, which is the point of Marcel. It’s really close to what you and I would think about a player’s skill. Post a wOBA above .450 for two straight years, and I’ll expect you to come back to the pack a little but still do something outrageous the next year.

Using this methodology, here are the top projected hitters for 2026:

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, and WBC handshake etiquette, whether a mercy-rule-inducing dinger qualifies as a walk-off, whether a winning home team could voluntarily play the bottom of the ninth, MLB’s ban of the Brewers’ challenge-system system, why the MLBPA should defend Jurickson Profar and other players with positive PED tests, and Joe Sewell’s indestructible bat, then preview the 2026 New York Mets (56:35) with The Athletic’s Tim Britton, and the 2026 Washington Nationals (1:40:27) with The Athletic’s Spencer Nusbaum, plus several postscript updates (2:27:10).

Audio intro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Ian Philllips, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 2: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to espresso shots
Link to WBC standings
Link to Skubal update
Link to handshake beef summary
Link to handshake beef precedent
Link to video of failed handshake
Link to Arozarena’s comments
Link to translation
Link to De Rosa response
Link to Raleigh response
Link to Soto homer
Link to “walk-off” etymology
Link to baseball dictionary definition
Link to Albies homer (and call)
Link to A Game of Inches excerpt
Link to MLB rulebook
Link to 2023 ump-less half-inning
Link to Brewers signs article
Link to Brewers signs update
Link to Ghiroli column
Link to listener emails database
Link to Pages from Baseball’s Past
Link to Sewell article
Link to EW wiki on bat boning
Link to MLBTR on Luzardo
Link to MLBTR on Wentz
Link to MLBTR on Greene
Link to team payrolls page
Link to Mets offseason tracker
Link to Mets depth chart
Link to Lambert eggs article
Link to Tim on the Mets’ collapse
Link to Soto/Lindor discord update
Link to Ben on Mets turnover
Link to Alvarez resurgence article
Link to Tim’s author archive
Link to Nationals offseason tracker
Link to Nationals depth chart
Link to WaPo discussion on HUAL
Link to The Athletic’s WaPo hirings
Link to Rizzo mantra
Link to Littell on EW
Link to Spencer’s WaPo author archive
Link to Spencer’s The Athletic archive
Link to Italy/USA game story
Link to tiebreak scenarios
Link to Ben on Ellen’s podcast
Link to Ella Black series
Link to Ball’s post about mornings
Link to Schaeffer clip
Link to R.J.’s farewell thread
Link to R.J.’s last EW appearance
Link to Crizer’s breakout terminology
Link to Tarkin quote

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