On Saturday afternoon, the Mariners traded catching prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals in exchange for Jose A. Ferrer; the Mariners also sent right-handed pitcher Isaac Lyon, their 10th-round pick from this year’s draft, to Washington. Robert Murray of FanSided had the news first.

This is a trade that raises a few eyebrows. While Ford moved through the minor leagues slowly by modern standards, he’s been a consensus Top 100 prospect for nearly three years now. It’s a little jarring to see someone of that caliber dealt for a reliever, particularly one with pedestrian surface-level numbers and good but not sterling peripherals. My initial reaction was that Seattle sold low on Ford, though further review has changed my thinking a little. Let’s dive in.

The Mariners’ side of this takes a little more nuance to work through, so we’ll start with their situation. Ford is a good, if not great prospect. He’s been on our Top 100 list for a couple seasons now on the strength of a well-rounded game, finishing the 2025 season ranked 43rd overall as a 50 FV. He can hit a little bit, there’s average power that he’s learning to tap into, and he’s growing into a reliable, if unspectacular defender behind the plate. There isn’t much star potential here, and I’ll say more on why that is in a bit, but he does project as a regular.

But Ford was also as blocked as any prospect in the minors, stuck behind MVP runner up Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is durable, excellent, and thoroughly entrenched after inking a six-year extension this past March. The Mariners had experimented with Ford in the outfield to see if they could find something else for him to do, as it’s been clear for a while now that his future would not be behind the plate in Seattle. He’s been an obvious trade candidate for at least a year, and the only surprise is that it took so long for the M’s to move him. They’ve reportedly been shopping him for impact relievers elsewhere; frankly, this is a swap that would have made a ton of sense four months ago, when Ford was just as blocked and the Mariners could have used more relief depth in front of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash for their playoff push. Oh well, not like it bit them in the butt during October.

So, trading Ford makes sense. But for Ferrer? A guy with a 4.36 career ERA? Don’t they have holes around the infield, ones they may need to fill via trade since it seems like their off-season budget is pretty modest? What gives?

As readers likely know, Ferrer’s numbers under the hood are much better than his ERA. His FIP over the last two years is under 3.00, thanks to tiny walk and home run rates. He’s also one of the league’s foremost groundball generators. His groundball rate is just over 60% for his career, and of the pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2025, only José Soriano, Jhoan Duran, and Tim Hill topped Ferrer’s 62.6% mark. As you’d expect, it’s really hard to drive the ball against him, and he only allowed five long balls in 76.1 innings of work in 2025. He takes full advantage of his ability to dampen damage on contact, pounding the zone to the tune of a 2.21 career BB/9 rate and an in-zone pitch rate of nearly 60% (roughly the 90th percentile for the league).

And of course, the Mariners aren’t just acquiring those numbers. They’re trading for the chance to unlock more, and you can see compelling paths forward here.

This season, Ferrer mostly just pounded the zone with his sinker while mixing in a changeup about 20% of the time and a slider once or twice an outing. His sinker is quite good, as it sits in the upper 90s, touches 100, and features plus tail. It’s a quick and reliable way for him to generate outs, and you can see why he leans on it. But like most pitchers who spam the fastball, there’s an argument for a usage adjustment here. The changeup performed very well in 2025, generating big whiff and chase rates, and hitters didn’t do much with it even on contact. He could probably stand to use it more.

The real path forward may be the slider, though. Ferrer’s sits in the low 90s and has tight, two-plane movement, not quite cutterish but in the neighborhood. His command of it isn’t great, generally in the dirt to the glove side, but whether it’s because guys don’t expect the Spanish Inquisition or they’re just not seeing his spin very well, opponents did absolutely nothing with it and whiffed more than half the times they swung. The Mariners have had a lot of success getting fastball-heavy arms to diversify their arsenal — Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are two obvious examples — and it would come as no surprise if they have Ferrer lean on the bender a lot more going forward.

Put everything together, and you can imagine why Seattle sees Ferrer as an impact reliever, the kind worth parting with a top prospect for. Sources from around the game like Ferrer as an upside play. He throws hard, he pounds the zone, he has three pitches that flash plus, and there’s a relatively straightforward adjustment that could unlock more. With four years of team control left, he’s not even expensive. He lengthens the bullpen and gives the Mariners a left-handed weapon of a magnitude they didn’t have last season. There’s always risk in acquiring relief pitching, but this looks like a safe way to add 1-1.5 WAR to the bullpen, and with his skills, a nutty, sub-2.00 ERA season is not outside the realm of possibility.

On Washington’s side, this also makes plenty of sense. Ferrer’s a tough guy to lose, but good relievers are a luxury on a rebuilding club and swapping bullpen arms for bats with everyday upside is a sound idea. That’s especially true behind the plate. Nationals catchers produced -1.4 WAR in 2025, last in the majors, and were awful on both sides of the ball. Led mostly by Riley Adams and Keibert Ruiz, the club’s backstops hit .225/.270/.322, good for a 65 wRC+ that was 29th in baseball. Thanks in part to Ruiz’s horrible framing numbers (his mark of -5.3 runs prevented was third from the bottom among all catchers, in 65 games no less), Washington’s catchers were also the league’s worst collective on defense as well. Ruiz was once a top prospect, but he’s now 27, has no approach, and is not exactly an asset defensively. It’s time to move on.

Enter Ford. A first round pick in 2021, Ford progressed slowly and steadily toward the big leagues before making his debut in September. His approach has been awesome: He has a very good eye, he recognizes soft stuff out of the hand, and while he doesn’t swing a ton, he reliably turns it loose on pitches he can drive. If you put a ton of stock in swing decisions, this is your guy.

Statistically, all is well. His production has been strikingly consistent, with Ford notching a wRC+ between 125 and 135 at each full-season level. He’s also posted very small deviations in his walk, strikeout, and — aside from 2024, which he spent in a huge, homer-suppressing yard — ISO numbers, all of which were encouraging. If you value consistent minor league production, this is your guy.

Scouts and evaluators are not universally sold on Ford’s ability to translate that production to the big leagues, though. His bat speed is average and he’s periodically struggled getting his bat to fastballs up in the zone. In his most recent prospect write-up, Eric covered an adjustment Ford made with his feet and timing that seems to have helped this season, but obviously the big leagues will provide a different stress test. I see an average bat with a chance to grow into average game power, but there are scouts who would take the under on both.

Ford’s defensive growth has mirrored his ascent through the minors. His framing has improved but is still fringy, and he may benefit from an ABS assist (though he was actually pretty bad at challenging pitches this season). He shines more in spots where his athleticism takes center stage. He’s quick on plays where the ball is tapped out in front of the plate, and he’s going to catch his share of baserunners. He has an above-average arm, his throwing accuracy has improved, and he caught nearly 25% of would-be-thieves in 2025. Early-career reports questioned whether he had too much trouble simply catching the ball, but his passed-ball figures have plummeted since 2023. I’m projecting an average defender, though again, there are evaluators who will take the under.

It all adds up to a 50 FV report, albeit one where there isn’t a lot of wiggle room if one of the tools doesn’t reach its projection or Ford’s approach buckles against better stuff. In truth, part of that projection is a reflection of the state of catching throughout the league; the bar for being an average regular isn’t very high right now. Still, if he’s average on both sides of the ball, that’s a good player, and he’s the kind of risk Washington should be taking at this stage. Ford could be part of the next good Nationals team, and even if he falls a little short of where we have him here, he’s likely steady enough to be a real upgrade over what they’ve trotted out in recent seasons.

Let’s quickly touch on the other player in the deal. Lyon, the son of former big leaguer Brandon Lyon, signed for nearly $200,000 this summer. He’s a good strike thrower with a bad fastball, a slider and change that flash average, and a delivery with some deception in it. He sat in the low 90s in short starts with Low-A Modesto, and could have another gear as he fills out. He projects as an up-down type and has a low-leverage relief ceiling if he can find a way to throw harder in shorter stints.

One other thing to note: With Ford now in Washington, Seattle will be in the market for a backup catcher. The club is reportedly open to a reunion with Mitch Garver, who hit 24 homers amidst otherwise disappointing production over the past two years as the club’s primary backup catcher; he also started at DH 22 times this season. While Raleigh plays nearly every day, he does DH fairly often, so whoever Seattle signs will probably start about 25% of the time behind the plate.

Ultimately, the deal helps both parties, and one exec I spoke with called it a “win win” move. The more I look at Ferrer, the more he seems like a reliever with another gear, a guy with closer stuff who is a plenty good fit for Seattle’s bullpen as is. Still, I think Washington did well here, getting a high-floor position player at an area of desperate need. The Paul Toboni era is here now, and Nationals fans should be enthused about his first big trade as president of baseball operations with the club.

Many were surprised when Zach McKinstry outpolled Kansas City’s Maikel Garcia and New York’s Ben Rice to win this year’s American League Silver Slugger Award at the utility position. That’s understandable — McKinstry’s numbers weren’t as good as those put up by his co-finalists — but the honor was nonetheless deserved. For one thing, he was a true utility player. Not only did McKinstry start 20 or more games for Detroit at each of third base (69), shortstop (27), and right field (20), he was stationed everywhere besides center field and catcher. Conversely, Garcia started just 21 games at positions other than third base, while Rice’s only action came as a catcher and a first baseman.

And it’s not as though the Tiger didn’t have solid numbers of his own. Over 511 plate appearances, McKinstry slashed .259/.333/.438 with a 114 wRC+. Moreover, he logged 23 doubles, 11 triples, 12 home runs, and 19 stolen bases. Amid little fanfare, the 30-year-old erstwhile Central Michigan University Chippewa was one of the more valuable players on a team that went on to play October baseball.

By most accounts, McKinstry is an overachiever. Exactly one thousand players were chosen before him in the 2016 draft, and he ranked as just the 28th-best prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization when he made his MLB debut in 2020. When the Tigers subsequently traded for him in March 2023 — he was by then a Chicago Cub — he had appeared in 121 big-league games to the tune of a 79 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

The Winter Meetings begin on Sunday in Orlando, and as always, the FanGraphs crew will be there covering all the baseball buzz. For that reason, I’ll keep this introduction brief; we’ll have more than enough words for you to read in the week ahead, when the offseason action is bound to pick up considerably.

Three weeks ago, I put out a call for fresh mailbag submissions, and you all delivered the goods. I knew I could count on you! We’ve received so many great questions since then, including the four that we’ll get to in a moment, and so I just wanted to thank everyone for holding up your end of the bargain. Now it’s time for us to do our part and answer them!

Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox and Pirates made a roster-balancing deal Thursday night as a prologue to Winter Meetings, with a five-player swap headlined by outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (who heads to Pittsburgh) and pitchers Johan Oviedo and Tyler Samaniego (who head to Boston). Here’s the complete trade:

Pittsburgh receives:
OF Jhostynxon Garcia
RHP Jesus Travieso

Boston receives:
RHP Johan Oviedo
LHP Tyler Samaniego
C Adonys Guzman Read the rest of this entry »

A lot has happened since we launched the 2026 version of the We Tried tracker a few weeks ago. With the Winter Meetings about to kick off, we’ve seen 14 We Trieds from 10 different teams concerning eight different free agents. (As always, you can keep track of them all at this link.) That may sound like a lot this early in free agency, but it’s worth noting that 10 of our Top 50 free agents are already off the board (though three of those players accepted the qualifying offer, which means nobody had the chance to try). I suspect we’re a bit behind last year’s pace. Hopefully more news about teams’ pursuits will leak out in the coming months. The big number we’re shooting for here is 100: Last year, the offseason closed with 99 We Trieds. Let’s make it to triple digits!

More will certainly come. Raisel Iglesias is currently leading the pack with four We Trieds, but don’t be surprised if Ryan Helsley overtakes him. Multiple reports said that fully half the teams in the league were interested in Helsley, but we only have two actual We Trieds so far, and one came from Helsley himself. Helsley told reporters that the Tigers were particularly interested in signing him as a starting pitcher, which isn’t a surprise, but his phrasing was particularly fun. He said the Tigers were “in on me heavy.” Honestly, I don’t have any jokes here. It’s just a slightly odd grammatical construction that I will probably think about twice a day for the next few years of my life. Before this week, you could be in on something. You could maybe even be heavily in on it. But now you can be in on it…heavy. Sometimes language evolves just like lifeforms, one mutation at a time. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Friday, and welcome to this offseason’s first installment of the Matrix Reloaded column. There has already been plenty of activity ahead of the 2025 Winter Meetings, which kick off this Sunday in sunny (well maybe, I haven’t actually checked the weather yet, and also it doesn’t matter because I won’t be going outside) Orlando, Florida. Since this is my first roundup of the winter, let’s start with a refresher on how the Matrix works.

My precious, color-coded spreadsheet has plenty of tabs for your perusal, but my bread and butter is the main FA Matrix tab, which includes a self-explanatory summary of signings at the top and a somewhat less self-explanatory color-coded summary of rumors concerning unsigned players further down. The FA Legend tab right next door will be helpful in decoding it, but here I’ll note that what I classify as a rumor is fairly subjective, as the lines between things like “interested in,” “kicking the tires,” “have looked into,” and “believed to be interested in” are pretty blurry. All rumors are linked to each colored cell, and I encourage reading them for further context beyond how I’ve bucketed them into groups.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into the deals that actually have been completed in the last week or so. For larger moves, I’ll be hitting on three key points: how the deal affects the signing team; how it affects other teams; and how it affects similar players. For smaller deals, I’ll be more rapid-fire and talk only about the signing team; other teams aren’t going to react too strongly to a $2 million bench player inking a new deal. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

In an age when baseball is so obsessed with velocity, it’s remarkable to remember how recently it was that a pitcher could thrive, year in and year out, despite averaging in the 85–87 mph range with his fastball. Yet that’s exactly what Mark Buehrle did over the course of his 16-year career. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds, the burly Buehrle was the epitome of the crafty lefty, an ultra-durable workhorse who didn’t dominate but who worked quickly, used a variety of pitches — four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curve, changeup — moving a variety of directions to pound the strike zone, and relied on his fielders to make the plays behind him. From 2001 to ’14, he annually reached the 30-start and 200-inning plateaus, and he barely missed on the latter front in his final season.

August Fagerstrom summed up Buehrle so well in his 2016 appreciation that I can’t resist sharing a good chunk of it:

The way Buehrle succeeded was unique, of course. He got his ground balls, but he wasn’t the best at getting ground balls. He limited walks, but he wasn’t the best a limiting walks. He generated soft contact, but he wasn’t the best at generating soft contact. Buehrle simply avoided damage with his sub-90 mph fastball by throwing strikes while simultaneously avoiding the middle of the plate:

That’s Buehrle’s entire career during the PITCHf/x era, and it’s something of a remarkable graphic. You see Buehrle living on the first-base edge of the zone, making sure to keep his pitches low, while also being able to spot the same pitch on the opposite side of the zone, for the most part avoiding the heart of the plate. Buehrle’s retained the ability to pitch this way until the end; just last year [2015], he led all of baseball in the percentage of pitches located on the horizontal edges of the plate.

Drafted and developed by the White Sox — practically plucked from obscurity, at that — Buehrle spent 12 of his 16 seasons on the South Side, making four All-Star teams and helping Chicago to three postseason appearances, including its 2005 World Series win, which broke the franchise’s 88-year championship drought. While with the White Sox, he became just the second pitcher in franchise history to throw multiple no-hitters, first doing so in 2007 against the Rangers and then adding a perfect game in ’09 against the Rays. After his time in Chicago, he spent a sour season with the newly rebranded Miami Marlins, and when that predictably melted down, spent three years with the Blue Jays, earning one more All-Star nod and helping them make the playoffs for the first time in 22 years.

Though Buehrle reached the 200-win plateau in his final season, he was just 36 years old when he hung up his spikes, preventing him from more fully padding his counting stats or framing his case for Cooperstown in the best light. A closer look beyond the superficial numbers suggests that, while he’s the equal or better of several enshrined pitchers according to WAR and JAWS, he’s far off the standards. Like fellow lefty and ballot-mate Andy Pettitte, he gets a boost from S-JAWS, a workload-adjusted version of starting pitcher JAWS that I introduced in 2022. Thus far, I’ve only included Pettitte on one of my five ballots (one of seven including virtual ballots), though I’m mulling his inclusion this year — a thought process that’s taking place as the electorate grapples with shifting standards for starting pitchers following last year’s election of CC Sabathia and the candidacies of Félix Hernández (who debuted last year) and Cole Hamels (this ballot’s top newcomer). I’ve pledged to reconsider Buehrle as well; I’m 0-for-5 in voting for him thus far, and I’m hardly alone, as he debuted with 11% in 2021, scraped by with 5.8% the next year, and has barely regained that lost ground, receiving 11.4% in 2025. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller, and podcast scorekeeper Chris Hanel review the results of an under-25-pitchers draft Ben and Sam conducted a decade ago. Then (13:38) Ben and Sam banter about Ben’s physique, answer listener emails about doing a The Only Rule-style experiment 10 years later, discuss Sam’s revamped, unique approach to writing about baseball this year, and consider some possibilities for what we’ll remember about baseball in 2025. After that (1:05:57), Ben continues the sporadic “Baseball Jobs” series by interviewing 71-year-old John Yandle, the Giants’ left-handed batting-practice pitcher since 1985, about his transition from pitcher to BP pitcher, the keys to good BP, balancing his day job and his baseball side gig, anticipating starting-pitcher matchups, fending off advanced pitching machines, his incredible longevity, arm care in his 70s, the hitters who’ve complained the most, throwing BP to Barry Bonds, and more, followed by (2:01:20) a postscript.

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