Here’s your chance to vote for the 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards winners.

The SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year. Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, and Sports Info Solutions.

To read any of the finalists, click on the link below. Scroll down to cast your vote.

Contemporary Analysis

• Ryan Blake, “The Batter’s Eye at T-Mobile Park: A New Perspective,” Lookout Landing, May 8, 2025
• Hannah Keyser, “How Fast Should Your 12-Year-Old Throw?” New York Times, August 21, 2025
• Maddie Landis, “Baseball’s Gatekept Pitching Metric: Inside Vertical Approach Angle,” Talk Sox, September 7, 2025
• Michael Rosen, “How Much Do Trail Runners Matter? An Investigation,” FanGraphs, September 8, 2025
• Stephen Sutton-Brown, “Understanding Swing Processes Through Bat and Pitch Tracking,” Baseball Prospectus, September 22, 2025

Contemporary Commentary

• Davy Andrews, “Unfuzzing the Strike Zone,” FanGraphs, January 3, 2025
• Michael Baumann, “Jhoan Duran and the One True Split-Finger Fastball,” FanGraphs, September 17, 2025
• Ben Lindbergh, ”If Pitches Are Fixed, Baseball Is Broken,” The Ringer, November 10, 2025
• RJ McDaniel, “Wearing the Hat,” Baseball Prospectus, September 17, 2025
• Richard Staff, “The Secret Brotherhood of the Phantom Ballplayers,” Defector, July 21, 2025

Historical Analysis/Commentary

• Benjamin Alter, “Josh Gibson’s Place in History: A Statistical Analysis,” SABR Baseball Research Journal, Spring 2025
• R.J. Anderson, “What MLB’s salary cap history can tell us about the upcoming CBA negotiations,” CBS Sports, December 1, 2025
• Steven Goldman, “Every Day They Burn the Book,” Baseball Prospectus, April 3, 2025
• Jay Jaffe, “Never is a Long, Long Time: Permanent Ineligibility and the Hall of Fame,” FanGraphs, March 10, 2025
• David Roth, “Octavio Dotel Made a Life in Baseball,” Defector, April 10, 2025

John Dewan Defensive Analysis

• Zach Crizer, “Evolution in the Outfield: Is Center Field Morphing Into a Defensive Specialist Position?” Opta Analyst, March 24, 2025
• Daniel R. Epstein, “Stand in the Place Where You Are,” Baseball Prospectus, May 5, 2025
• Dan M. Kahan, “Fielding Before and After Baseball’s Great Transformation,” Journal of Sports Analytics, Volume 11, 2025

Voting will be open through 11:59 p.m. MST on Friday, February 6, 2026.

Mobile or Safari users, click here to access the survey

Results will be announced and presented at the SABR Analytics Conference, February 27-March 1, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. Learn more or register for the conference at SABR.org/analytics.

This year’s Hall of Fame ballot included three former Philadelphia Phillies position players, none of whom received the necessary 319 votes (out of 425 cast) to gain election. Chase Utley fared best with 251 votes (59.1%), while Bobby Abreu got 131 (30.8%), and Jimmy Rollins received 108 (25.4%). As did my colleagues Jay Jaffe and Dan Szymborski, I put checkmarks next to Abreu’s and Utley’s names, but not Rollins’s.

How did other BBWAA voters choose among the Phillies trio? A comprehensive answer isn’t possible — not everyone makes their ballots public — but we do know about the 260 voters whose selections were shared on Ryan Thibodaux’s Ballot Tracker. Here is the breakdown as of yesterday afternoon courtesy of the Tracker’s Anthony Calamis:

66 voted for none of the three.
25 had all three.
52 had only Utley.
9 had only Abreu.
3 had only Rollins.
63 had Utley and Abreu, but not Rollins.
42 had Utley and Rollins, but not Abreu.

As for the players’ relative merit, that is in the eye of the beholder. Reasonable arguments, both for and against, can be made for all three former Phillies by prioritizing specific statistics and accolades — or even reputations (none of Abreu, Rollins, or Utley have been tainted by scandal). Read the rest of this entry »

At this time last week, the Mets were celebrating their signing of Bo Bichette. Up until that point, though, their offseason was largely being viewed as a letdown as they assembled an oddly shaped roster. Earlier this winter, they watched as Edwin Díaz spurned them for the Dodgers, let Pete Alonso walk and then signed Jorge Polanco to play first base, and missed out on Kyle Tucker. Sure, they upgraded at second base with the Marcus Semien trade, but doing so required them to part with Brandon Nimmo, who was coming off a year in which he hit a career-high 25 home runs and posted 3.0 WAR. They decided to replace that production with 23-year-old Top 100 prospect Carson Benge, who had a 53 wRC+ in 103 Triple-A plate appearances last season, as the big spoon of a platoon in left field. They also reinforced their bullpen with two of the more inconsistent members of the 2025 Yankees’ relief corps, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver. These weren’t bad moves, to be clear. Williams especially is a strong bounce-back candidate; Polanco is a quality player, though his entire experience at first base consists of one defensive plate appearance; and Semien fulfills the team’s desire to get better defensively. But they were a bit puzzling given that the Mets’ greatest areas of need were another impact bat, a center fielder, and a frontline starting pitcher.

As it turns out, adding Bichette was just the first in a trio of acquisitions to address those major roster holes. Late Tuesday night, the Mets traded for center fielder Luis Robert Jr., who is coming off two straight seasons of injuries and poor performance but is still a tantalizing talent and just 28 years old. “If you made an outfielder in a lab, he’d look a lot like this,” wrote Ben Clemens about Robert after the trade. Then, on Wednesday, they swung a swap with the Brewers for All-Star right-hander Freddy Peralta to anchor their rotation. They had to give up two of their top prospects to get him, but as Davy Andrews noted in his column on the trade, “the Mets are trying to win this season, and now that he’s not in Milwaukee, David Stearns has the luxury of leaving tomorrow’s problems for tomorrow.”

We won’t be answering any questions about the Mets or any of the other big recent transactions, such as Cody Bellinger’s re-signing with the Yankees or the Rangers’ trade for MacKenzie Gore, but we will be talking about the other big baseball topic of the week: the Hall of Fame. We’ll also discuss the best left-on-left hitters of all time, the aesthetic potential of the Colorado Rockies, and what to expect from Foster Griffin with the Nationals. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the MacKenzie Gore trade, the trajectories of the Rangers and Nationals since their respective World Series victories, and why the White Sox signed Seranthony Domínguez. Then (29:38) they bring on baseball buds Brent Rooker and Vinnie Pasquantino for a wide-ranging conversation about their scrapped podcasting plans, the Royals remodeling Kauffman Stadium, how Sutter Health Park played, the good and bad of bat-speed training, the challenge system, Brent’s sinking strikeout rate, the best breakfasts, the Pasqwich, A’s outfield defense, Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone, playing with Rich Hill, A’s extensions, playing 162 games, why they haven’t become 30-30 guys, arbitration, players’ pre-lockout messaging, an offseason signing deadline, Vinnie’s interactions with Shohei Ohtani, the WBC, the weather, and more. Finally (1:38:25), Ben shares listener responses about Andruw Jones and outfield diving.

Audio intro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to FG post on Gore trade
Link to FG post on traded prospects
Link to “jersey guy” discussion
Link to team losses post-2019
Link to team SP projections
Link to Ben on Sale in 2018
Link to Sox pen rank
Link to MLBTR on Domínguez
Link to first Rooker pod appearance
Link to second Rooker appearance
Link to Episode 1875
Link to Episode 1988
Link to lowest WARs in April
Link to Brent’s Twitter taunt
Link to Vinnie on the canceled podcast
Link to story on Vinnie’s slow start
Link to story on Muncy’s eyewear
Link to bat speed article
Link to Brent on bat speed
Link to bat speed data
Link to Vinnie on the fence changes
Link to Brent on breakfast
Link to Vinnie on Italian breakfast
Link to Pasqwich tweet
Link to Pasqwich article
Link to Baseball Savant park factors
Link to FG park factors
Link to Kauffman batter’s eye comments
Link to more Kauffman batter’s eye comments
Link to visibility by ballpark
Link to Brent’s lone Royals hit
Link to Lowe comments
Link to story on Vinnie and Jac
Link to MLBTR on Brent’s extension
Link to MLBTR on A’s extensions
Link to Vinnie on extensions
Link to Vinnie on arbitration
Link to iron man Rooker
Link to sprint speeds
Link to signing deadline tweet 1
Link to signing deadline tweet 2
Link to Soderstrom article
Link to Vinnie’s “WTF” tweet
Link to Vinnie and Ohtani
Link to Brent and Ohtani
Link to Team Italy WBC roster
Link to Brent’s weather tweet
Link to Trout’s response
Link to Brent’s “weather boy” tweet
Link to “weather boy” meme
Link to Bledsoe Agency
Link to Pham suspension story
Link to Pham Insta post
Link to Episode 2430
Link to Bloomquist on Ichiro
Link to Pillar/White article

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After a valiant editing effort from Matt Martell last week, I’m back with a Matrix Reloaded of a much more normal length! The Significant Signings section might not be necessary for too much longer this offseason, but I’ll continue to start there as long as players are signing for $10 million or more.

As always, the Offseason Matrices document can be found here.

Significant Signings

Yankees Sign Cody Bellinger for Five Years, $162.5 Million

• Ben Clemens’ Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Yankees

The overarching theme of the Yankees’ offseason has been to get the band back together, with Bellinger the cherry on top of a very familiar sundae. Ryan Weathers is the team’s one major acquisition from another club, with Bellinger the fifth Yankees free agent re-signed, after Trent Grisham, Ryan Yarbrough, Amed Rosario, and Paul Blackburn. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the reasons I’ve enjoyed tracking We Trieds over the past year is that there’s so much gray area involved. When a team gets the word out that it was also interested in a player who signed with another team, that information takes a circuitous journey. Its source is indeterminate. It’s usually laundered through one or several reporters. When it finally makes its way into the discourse, it emerges on social media, slips out during a podcast, or appears in boldface at the top of a sports section. You’re never quite sure whether the phrasing comes from the reporter or the source or some combination of the two. Most importantly, you never know how much truth is behind it.

The Mets “had some interest” in Pete Alonso, “showed interest” in Raisel Iglesias, “checked in on” Robert Suarez, and “made a reasonable try” for Tyler Rogers. Which player did they want the most? Which player did they expend the most effort to land? Even if you have strong opinions about what all of those words actually mean, you can’t ever be sure. The absence of hard facts leaves plenty of room for interpretation and silly jokes. Today, however, we’re going to focus on two We Trieds that seem, if anything, too real. Will we still make stupid jokes? Yes, we will. We will make them extra stupid. That’s not just our right; it’s our sacred duty. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the ultimate team is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

If you looked up “.500 team” in the dictionary, you’d find, well, nothing. THAT’S NOT HOW DICTIONARIES WORK. But if they did have extensive listings of colloquialisms and an editor obsessed with baseball, you might see the 2025 Cardinals. Despite not falling behind by double digits in the NL Central race until late in the season, the Cardinals certainly never felt like they were ever realistically in any playoff race. At the same time, they were also never enough of a doormat team to be interesting out of ineptitude. The Cards spent the season basically playing out the string, in baseball limbo while fans waited out the swan song year of executive vice-president John Mozeliak, with most of the interest surrounding when/if various veterans would be traded.

While roughly a .500-looking team has some wild card upside, St. Louis has the look of a team with an incredibly low ceiling in the short term, like on the level of that room near the start of Willy Wonka’s factory tour. Only Masyn Winn is a high threat to put up a 4-WAR season, and he’s already at that level, not someone who can break out to that level. But except for right field, since ZiPS has long since thrown in the towel on Jordan Walker, the Cardinals also aren’t bad anywhere in their lineup, either. Brendan Donovan is extremely versatile, but he could be traded sometime during the season, if not before then, and players like Nolan Gorman and JJ Wetherholt can also collect plate appearances playing a variety of positions. Wetherholt’s first full professional season was a dynamite one, and he gets a strong projection entering his first year in the big leagues. ZiPS at least sees him as an upgrade on the departed Nolan Arenado in 2026.

ZiPS thinks Lars Nootbaar is still young enough to bounce back from a real down season in 2025. When that may happen, though, is an open question. Last fall, he had surgery to shave down his heels to remedy his Haglund’s deformities, and reading the first half of this sentence makes me wonder if my brain has actually finally lost its last connection with reality. Nootbaar’s lack of ability to do much against lefties limits his upside, but like most of the rest of the team, he’ll be… fine. Also in that wide range of adequacy is Victor Scott II, who plays defense well enough these days to carry his abysmal offense, and Alec Burleson at first, who needs a lefty-crushing platoon partner, though he did improve some against southpaws last season. The Cardinals’ catching situation could be really interesting, depending on when and if Iván Herrera gets back to playing catcher. Even if he doesn’t, he’s shown he’s a good enough player to have value as a DH, and Pedro Pagés hits just enough that he’s not a problem starting behind the plate.

Luckily, the mid- and long-term outlooks for St. Louis are sunnier. Wetherholt has already been mentioned, but ZiPS thinks both Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal could hold their own as major league catchers. Joshua Baez has a strong long-term ZiPS projection, and the computer sees him as someone who could (and should) replace Walker if/when the former top prospect doesn’t come around.

Pitchers

As with the starting lineup, the Cards look like they’re going to have a very deep rotation, but one that’s almost mindblowingly average. Michael McGreevy has the best projected ERA of the starters, which ought to tell you a lot about the state of the rotation. If you believe ZiPS, St. Louis could field about three major league rotations of starting pitchers with an ERA+ somewhere in the 90s. So there’s not a lot of difference between the guys we have as getting the bulk of the innings on the depth chart (Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Dustin May, Kyle Leahy, Richard Fitts), and the guys who aren’t (Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Hunter Dobbins, Ixan Henderson, Tekoah Roby if not for the Tommy John surgery). In other words, this group probably won’t crack the top 10 in starting pitcher WAR, but there are enough spares that it likely won’t be an embarrassment, either.

While that’s not great for the team’s chances to contend in 2026, that does suggest a path to long-term benefits. The deep stable of no. 3 and no. 4 starters is decidedly on the young side, all in their 20s, and at least some of them ought to develop into something better. Mathews is probably the best candidate to do so, as is Hence, even though there’s a reasonable chance that the latter pitches out of the bullpen in the short term. Liam Doyle didn’t get an official projection here because of his lack of professional experience, but if I instruct ZiPS to use his college translations, he has a very good long-term outlook, too.

ZiPS projects the bullpen as below average, but not in dumpster-fire territory. The computer only really likes three relievers, JoJo Romero, Matt Svanson, and Gordon Graceffo, and a fourth if you believe the Cards will use Hence in relief in 2026. Outside of that quartet, there are a lot of guys with projected ERAs just above four in relief, firmly in C- territory. It’s probably not quite this bad, as the multitude of starting pitching options means the pen will get some reinforcements if the top starters are healthy, so someone like Leahy could end up here after all. In any case, this is a middling bullpen, one that probably won’t approach the production of last year’s unit, which had the ninth-best relief WAR in baseball.

All told, ZiPS sees St. Louis as, you guessed it, about a .500 team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the best point in the podcast at which to talk transactions, how a salary cap would affect the kind of conversations we have about baseball (based on the way we discuss other sports), the notion that a particular signing would drive owners to pursue a salary cap, and (25:09) whether a fielder’s proclivity for diving catches tells us anything about how good he is (inspired by the belief that Andruw Jones never had to dive). Then (44:32) they break down the latest Mets moves (for Luis Robert Jr. and Freddy Peralta), the team’s extreme makeover, and why the Brewers dealt Peralta, plus (1:29:08) the Yankees’ Cody Bellinger deal, their lack of roster turnover, and Belli’s up-down-up career.

Audio intro: Jimmy Kramer, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MLBTR on Gore
Link to Young trade news
Link to Young trade rationale
Link to Rosenthal on the cap
Link to Drellich on the cap
Link to Calcaterra on Jones
Link to Sheehan on Jones
Link to Jones highlight reel
Link to possibility space wiki
Link to Ben on Harper’s dives
Link to Hannah on dives
Link to Rocky quote
Link to FG on Robert
Link to team CF projections
Link to Robert CF rank
Link to Robert’s sprint speeds
Link to 2017 story on Robert
Link to 2017 EW episode on Robert
Link to FG on Peralta
Link to FG on Peralta prospects
Link to Brewers defense ranking
Link to Peralta defenders ranking
Link to RA-9 WAR leaders
Link to team SP projections
Link to Tong’s grilled cheese
Link to BP on Peralta
Link to Brewers payroll story 1
Link to Brewers payroll story 2
Link to team payrolls page
Link to Mets team ZiPS post
Link to FG post on Bellinger
Link to Belli’s celebration injury
Link to Belli on changing his celebration
Link to team WAR projections
Link to Domínguez defensive stats
Link to team BaseRuns
Link to political registration research
Link to EW wiki on car recording

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