Maui Ahuna isn’t a high profile prospect, but he is one of the more intriguing infield bats in the San Francisco Giants system. Drafted in 2023 out of the University of Tennessee, the 23-year-old shortstop is coming off a season where he slashed .269/.370/.453 and posted a 123 wRC+ over 274 plate appearances spread across the Arizona Complex League (a rehab stint), Low-A San Jose, and High-A Eugene.
Injuries have been an issue. Seen as a potential first rounder going into his final collegiate season, Ahuna slid to the fourth round after landing on the shelf with a stress reaction in his back. He subsequently had Tommy John surgery in 2024, keeping him out of action until this past May. Making up for lost reps, he finished the year in the Arizona Fall League, playing in 11 games for the Scottsdale Scorpions.
When I caught up to Ahuna in Arizona, the first thing I asked him about is the frequent comparisons he gets to former Giant Brandon Crawford. Much as I expected, the Hilo, Hawaii native appreciates the comparison, yet prefers to just be himself. Read the rest of this entry »
For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.
Batters
Over the last five or six years, the ZiPS projected standings have tended to underrate the Brewers, but not because of the projections themselves. Instead, this has mostly been because of me. ZiPS is neither systemically high nor low on Brewers players, but I tend to be way too conservative when making depth charts for the simulations in the spring. Typically, when ZiPS spits out a bunch of interesting projections for fringy guys on Milwaukee, I tell myself, “Sure, but no way the Brewers actually gamble and play those guys.” And then, well, they do. So when ZiPS has projected Joey Ortiz to get 2.3 WAR per 600 plate appearances, tabbed Isaac Collins and Caleb Durbin to be roughly league-average starters given full-time play, and liked a whole bunch of random fifth-starter types as relievers, I’ve chickened out and knocked the team down a peg, only for the Brewers turn out to be braver than I thought. So this time around, I’m going to go all in on the interesting guys! And hopefully, this won’t be the year the Brewers get boring.
As for 2025, Milwaukee didn’t get to the World Series, but the team did outlast all but one National League club. For much of the summer, the Brewers were flaming hot, prematurely ending what looked like an interesting NL Central battle with the Cubs, and winning the most games in baseball.
Will they win 97 games again? Probably not. But at the risk of facing the wrath of fans, these Brewers look a lot like one of the good Cardinals teams, in that while they’re not loaded with stars, they’re absolutely rock-solid almost anywhere. At eight of the nine lineup positions, ZiPS projects them at league average or better, usually on the side of “better.” What makes this lineup especially fascinating is that the floor is pretty high because the Brewers generally have pretty respectable plan B options. The outfield is jugglable, and the platoon splits and bat/glove pairs match up really well. ZiPS thinks Andruw Monasterio or Eddys Leonard — recently signed to a minor league deal — are good infield depth, and that Cooper Pratt and quite possibly Jesús Made could be ready surprisingly quickly. (ZiPS thinks Pratt’s 2025 was better than it looked.)
Now, William Contreras would be the hardest player to replace if he were to go down with an injury, but Jeferson Quero gets a pretty decent projection behind the plate. The only starter ZiPS doesn’t really like is Andrew Vaughn, but it’s certainly possible that the projection system isn’t giving him enough juice for being free of the White Sox, who never really appeared to know what to do with him after he didn’t debut to instant stardom. The Brewers won’t have an elite offense, but they ought to have a good one that’s fairly dependable.
Pitchers
The rotation projections aren’t quite as exciting, partially due to the relatively low number of projected innings. But even if there’s no Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet at the top, there’s nothing wrong with a starting five of Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester, Brandon Woodruff, Chad Patrick, and Jacob Misiorowski. ZiPS thinks you could easily slot in basically any of Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, or Tobias Myers without damaging the rotation. That’s good depth, and I’d normally be skeptical about the Brewers giving much time to Coleman Crow, but as I said up top, I’m switching things up this year and being more open to the possibility that maybe the organization sees the same thing that the projections do.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is the best projected so far this ZiPS season, edging out that of the Phillies. The worst projected ERA (as a reliever) for any of the 12 pitchers with 30 bullpen innings on the current depth chart is Rob Zastr…z…err…something (hey, my last name is Szymborski so I get to make that joke) at 4.19. ZiPS even thinks that a few of the less talked about starting pitching prospects, most notably Tate Kuehner and Tyson Hardin, could finish with an ERA in the threes as full-time relievers. If the Brewers think that’s a possibility, given their history, I wouldn’t be against them.
Like the classic good Cardinals teams, the Brewers could win somewhere between 86 and 94 wins or so, and I wouldn’t bat an eye at any of that. But I also think they have one of the lowest chances of any team to be lousy. Your Toyota Camry may not be flashy, but it’s going to probably still be a usable car in 15 years while your neighbor’s Audi is slowly bankrupting them. This is a good team with a high floor, and I hope this is the year I’m finally smart enough to trust in Milwaukee’s creativity.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.
Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.
As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. Initially written for The Cooperstown Casebook, published in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books, it was subsequently adapted for SI.com and then FanGraphs. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
It happened so quickly. Freshly anointed the game’s top prospect by Baseball America in the spring of 1996, the soon-to-be-19-year-old Andruw Jones was sent to play for the Durham Bulls, the Braves’ High-A affiliate. By mid-August, he had blazed through the Carolina League, the Double-A Southern League, and the Triple-A International League, then debuted for the defending world champions. By October 20, with just 31 regular-season games under his belt, he was a household name, having become the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game, breaking Mickey Mantle’s record — and doing so twice at Yankee Stadium to boot.
Jones was no flash in the pan. The Braves didn’t win the 1996 World Series, and he didn’t win the ’97 National League Rookie of the Year award, but along with Chipper Jones (no relation) and the big three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, he became a pillar of a franchise that won a remarkable 14 division titles from 1991 to 2005 (all but the 1994 strike season, with ’91–93 in the NL West and ’95–05 in the revamped NL East). From 1998 to 2007, Jones won 10 straight Gold Gloves, more than any center fielder except Willie Mays. Read the rest of this entry »
Analyst, Major League Hitting – Research & Development
Job Summary:
The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Assistant Director of Research & Development, Brandon Nelson, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Major League clubhouse to provide resources, answers, and ideas to the Major League Hitting group. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when our players step into the batter’s box.
Responsibilities & Duties:
Be a critical thinker to improve resources for hitting development and game planning strategies
Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
Effectively communicate data with Major League coaches, staff, and players
Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform hitting decisions
Maintain our processes and pipeline to deliver hitting reports and the related data daily
Position Qualifications, Skills, and Experience Required:
Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
Familiarity with modern hitting evaluation and hitting development metrics
Preferred Qualifications:
Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field
Position Details:
This position requires full-time travel with the Major League team during Spring Training, regular season, and Postseason
Relocation to Kansas City is required in-season. However, there is no requirement to relocate full time.- If you relocate full time, you will receive a one-time moving stipend
Physical Requirements:
Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling
The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job. While performing the duties of this job, the employee is regularly required to see, talk, and hear. The employee frequently is required to sit for long periods of time; walk; use hands, handle, or feel.
This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.
We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.
Analyst, Player Development – Research & Development
Job Summary:
The Kansas City Royals are seeking a highly motivated and creative analyst to join the organization. Working under the direction of the Assistant Director of Research & Development, Brandon Nelson, the analyst will be fully integrated into the Minor League Player Development system to strengthen the resources used to maximize player performance. The successful candidate will combine analytical expertise and clear communication skills to translate baseball data into insights that give The Royals an edge when it comes to developing the best baseball talent in the game.
Responsibilities & Duties:
Oversee and run the Player Development pipeline that delivers data and reports to the organization on a daily basis
Be a critical thinker to improve resources for player development strategies
Build reports to deliver digestible insights to coaches and players
Effectively communicate data with Minor League coaches, staff, and players
Perform ad-hoc data analysis to answer questions that help inform player development decisions
Position Qualifications, Skills, and Experience Required:
Record of published baseball research and or a portfolio of technical projects in any domain
Strong proficiency with SQL and R to query and analyze data from large data sets
Interpersonal and communication skills to seamlessly interact with front office, analysts, coaches, players, and other Baseball Operations personnel
Familiarity with modern player evaluation and player development metrics
Preferred Qualifications:
Software engineering background with the ability to design and build systems programmatically
Experience building models with large data sets to answer research questions
Experience as a player, coach, or staff member in a high level sports environment
Familiarity with the landscape of Minor League Baseball and its teams and players
Proficiency with HTML and CSS to create and maintain interactive reports or PDFs
4-year degree or equivalent experience in computer science, mathematics, statistics, or related quantitative field
Position Details:
Relocation to Kansas City is strongly preferred but not required
Travel to Arizona for Minor League Spring Training is required
Potential for trips to Minor League Affiliates throughout the season
Physical Requirements:
Ability to lift items weighing as much as 15 pounds
Must be able to work in a seated position for majority of workday
Must be able to be productive utilizing a computer keyboard and telephone
Must be able to be productive in a work environment where the noise level can be high at times
Must be comfortable walking to navigate the facility to access the office, concourse, etc.
Must be able to work extended hours and/or weekends as required by deadlines and event scheduling
The physical demands described here are representative of those that may be met by an employee to successfully perform the essential functions of this job. While performing the duties of this job, the employee is regularly required to see, talk, and hear. The employee frequently is required to sit for long periods of time; walk; use hands, handle, or feel.
This role is a Full-Time, Exempt opportunity that is eligible for Company Benefits, 401K, and PTO. This role is expected to have a standard 40-hour work week.
We also afford equal employment opportunities to qualified individuals with a disability. For this reason, the Kansas City Royals will make reasonable accommodations for the known physical or mental limitations of an otherwise qualified individual with a disability who is an applicant consistent with its legal obligations to do so, including reasonable accommodations applicable local, state and / or federal law. As part of its commitment to make reasonable accommodations, the Club also wishes to participate in a timely, good faith, interactive process with a disabled applicant to determine effective reasonable accommodations, if any, which can be made in response to a request for accommodations. Applicants are invited to identify reasonable accommodations that can be made to assist them to perform the essential functions of the position they seek. Any applicant who requires an accommodation in order to perform the essential functions please inquire with Human Resources by email at humanresources@royals.com.
We are an equal opportunity employer, and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, age, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley deliver a correction to the preceding episode’s draft results, ponder the mystery of a bigger John Brebbia fan than Ben, remind listeners to sign up for EW Secret Santa, and banter about Sonny Gray, Brian Cashman, and gloriously nonsensical sports beefs, Bryce Harper’s ozone therapy, two trades centered on blocked prospects, and Jeff Kent’s Cooperstown induction.
Michael Soroka is getting another chance to start. Bright and early on Monday morning, Jesse Rogers and Jeff Passan of ESPN kicked off the Winter Meetings with news that the right-handed former sinkerballer has agreed to a one-year deal with the Diamondbacks. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported that the deal is for one year and $7.5 million, along with up to $2 million in incentives. Soroka slots into a new team as a starter for the second year in a row after struggling in the rotation and then pitching better out of the bullpen. He’ll now do so for a Diamondbacks team in desperate need of starting pitching, as both Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly have entered free agency. It’s a small gamble on a pitcher whose upside isn’t necessarily set in stone.
Still just 28, Soroka has already walked a long road. The Braves’ first-round pick out of high school in 2015, he debuted in 2018 at the age of 20. He dominated in 2019, going 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 3.45 FIP, and finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in the Cy Young voting. A sinkerballer by trade, he ran a 51% groundball rate and allowed just 0.72 homers per nine innings. He was one of the most promising young arms in the game. Then he tore his Achilles tendon in both 2020 and 2021 and followed those up with shoulder injuries. From 2020 to 2023, he made just 10 major league appearances, missing the 2021 and 2022 seasons entirely. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of my ongoing look at the candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, use the navigation tool above. An introduction to JAWS can be found here.
On an eight-man Hall of Fame ballot featuring three players who were linked to performance-enhancing drugs, and four others who had shortened careers that ended by age 37 due to declines accelerated by injuries, it appeared from the outset of this cycle that Jeff Kent — a former MVP who holds the record for most home runs by a second baseman — had the easiest path to a plaque. Sure enough, when the votes from the 16-member Contemporary Baseball Era Committee were counted at the Winter Meetings on Sunday in Orlando, Kent was the lone candidate elected to the Hall. He’ll be inducted on July 26, 2026 in Cooperstown alongside any candidates elected by the BBWAA.
Meanwhile, in a repudiation that echoed the one that he received from the 2023 edition of this committee, Kent’s former Giants teammate and clubhouse nemesisBarry Bonds again received fewer than five votes. So did Roger Clemens (again) and first-timer Gary Sheffield, the two other candidates connected to PEDs, as well as the late Fernando Valenzuela. Based on a new rule introduced earlier this year, all four are ineligible for consideration on the 2029 Contemporary Baseball ballot, assuming the format goes unchanged; the earliest they can next appear is the 2032 ballot, to be voted on in December 2031. If any of those candidates again slips into the fewer-than-five zone, they will be ineligible for future consideration, period — an aspect of the rule that appears ripe for abuse given the heavy hand the Hall has demonstrated when choosing its committees.
Astute readers of my coverage will note that those four candidates were the ones from this ballot whom I endorsed for election. I argued that Valenzuela, who barely made a dent in two years on the BBWAA ballot (2003–04), should be considered primarily as a modern-day pioneer for serving as a beloved global ambassador and international icon who brought generations of Mexican American and Latino fans to baseball. That’s on top of a very good — but not Hall-caliber — playing career which included six All-Star selections and four top-five finishes in the Cy Young voting, highlighted by his incredible age-20 season, in which he won the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards, led the Dodgers to their first championship in 16 years, and emerged as the centerpiece of a cultural phenomenon, Fernandomania.
As for Bonds, Clemens, and Sheffield, this was an extension of the support I gave them during their tenures on the BBWAA ballot, first virtually and then once I joined the voting pool starting with the 2021 cycle. All three were among the very best of their day, with Bonds and Clemens perhaps the best position player and pitcher of all time — period. As for their connections to PEDs, I’ve long drawn a distinction between PED use that dated to the time before testing and penalties were in place, when a complete institutional failure prevented the league and the union from adopting a coherent drug policy. This isn’t a fringe view within the BBWAA electorate, either. Particularly once Bud Selig, who as commissioner presided over the game’s steroid mess, was elected to the Hall via the 2017 Today’s Game election, all three received support from a substantial majority of Hall voters, climbing to at least 63% by the end of their runs on the ballot (2022 for Bonds and Clemens, 2024 for Sheffield). Read the rest of this entry »
On Saturday afternoon, the Mariners traded catching prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals in exchange for Jose A. Ferrer; the Mariners also sent right-handed pitcher Isaac Lyon, their 10th-round pick from this year’s draft, to Washington. Robert Murray of FanSided had the news first.
This is a trade that raises a few eyebrows. While Ford moved through the minor leagues slowly by modern standards, he’s been a consensus Top 100 prospect for nearly three years now. It’s a little jarring to see someone of that caliber dealt for a reliever, particularly one with pedestrian surface-level numbers and good but not sterling peripherals. My initial reaction was that Seattle sold low on Ford, though further review has changed my thinking a little. Let’s dive in.
The Mariners’ side of this takes a little more nuance to work through, so we’ll start with their situation. Ford is a good, if not great prospect. He’s been on our Top 100 list for a couple seasons now on the strength of a well-rounded game, finishing the 2025 season ranked 43rd overall as a 50 FV. He can hit a little bit, there’s average power that he’s learning to tap into, and he’s growing into a reliable, if unspectacular defender behind the plate. There isn’t much star potential here, and I’ll say more on why that is in a bit, but he does project as a regular.
But Ford was also as blocked as any prospect in the minors, stuck behind MVP runner up Cal Raleigh. Raleigh is durable, excellent, and thoroughly entrenched after inking a six-year extension this past March. The Mariners had experimented with Ford in the outfield to see if they could find something else for him to do, as it’s been clear for a while now that his future would not be behind the plate in Seattle. He’s been an obvious trade candidate for at least a year, and the only surprise is that it took so long for the M’s to move him. They’ve reportedly been shopping him for impact relievers elsewhere; frankly, this is a swap that would have made a ton of sense four months ago, when Ford was just as blocked and the Mariners could have used more relief depth in front of Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash for their playoff push. Oh well, not like it bit them in the butt during October.
So, trading Ford makes sense. But for Ferrer? A guy with a 4.36 career ERA? Don’t they have holes around the infield, ones they may need to fill via trade since it seems like their off-season budget is pretty modest? What gives?
As readers likely know, Ferrer’s numbers under the hood are much better than his ERA. His FIP over the last two years is under 3.00, thanks to tiny walk and home run rates. He’s also one of the league’s foremost groundball generators. His groundball rate is just over 60% for his career, and of the pitchers who threw at least 50 innings in 2025, only José Soriano, Jhoan Duran, and Tim Hill topped Ferrer’s 62.6% mark. As you’d expect, it’s really hard to drive the ball against him, and he only allowed five long balls in 76.1 innings of work in 2025. He takes full advantage of his ability to dampen damage on contact, pounding the zone to the tune of a 2.21 career BB/9 rate and an in-zone pitch rate of nearly 60% (roughly the 90th percentile for the league).
And of course, the Mariners aren’t just acquiring those numbers. They’re trading for the chance to unlock more, and you can see compelling paths forward here.
This season, Ferrer mostly just pounded the zone with his sinker while mixing in a changeup about 20% of the time and a slider once or twice an outing. His sinker is quite good, as it sits in the upper 90s, touches 100, and features plus tail. It’s a quick and reliable way for him to generate outs, and you can see why he leans on it. But like most pitchers who spam the fastball, there’s an argument for a usage adjustment here. The changeup performed very well in 2025, generating big whiff and chase rates, and hitters didn’t do much with it even on contact. He could probably stand to use it more.
The real path forward may be the slider, though. Ferrer’s sits in the low 90s and has tight, two-plane movement, not quite cutterish but in the neighborhood. His command of it isn’t great, generally in the dirt to the glove side, but whether it’s because guys don’t expect the Spanish Inquisition or they’re just not seeing his spin very well, opponents did absolutely nothing with it and whiffed more than half the times they swung. The Mariners have had a lot of success getting fastball-heavy arms to diversify their arsenal — Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are two obvious examples — and it would come as no surprise if they have Ferrer lean on the bender a lot more going forward.
Put everything together, and you can imagine why Seattle sees Ferrer as an impact reliever, the kind worth parting with a top prospect for. Sources from around the game like Ferrer as an upside play. He throws hard, he pounds the zone, he has three pitches that flash plus, and there’s a relatively straightforward adjustment that could unlock more. With four years of team control left, he’s not even expensive. He lengthens the bullpen and gives the Mariners a left-handed weapon of a magnitude they didn’t have last season. There’s always risk in acquiring relief pitching, but this looks like a safe way to add 1-1.5 WAR to the bullpen, and with his skills, a nutty, sub-2.00 ERA season is not outside the realm of possibility.
On Washington’s side, this also makes plenty of sense. Ferrer’s a tough guy to lose, but good relievers are a luxury on a rebuilding club and swapping bullpen arms for bats with everyday upside is a sound idea. That’s especially true behind the plate. Nationals catchers produced -1.4 WAR in 2025, last in the majors, and were awful on both sides of the ball. Led mostly by Riley Adams and Keibert Ruiz, the club’s backstops hit .225/.270/.322, good for a 65 wRC+ that was 29th in baseball. Thanks in part to Ruiz’s horrible framing numbers (his mark of -5.3 runs prevented was third from the bottom among all catchers, in 65 games no less), Washington’s catchers were also the league’s worst collective on defense as well. Ruiz was once a top prospect, but he’s now 27, has no approach, and is not exactly an asset defensively. It’s time to move on.
Enter Ford. A first round pick in 2021, Ford progressed slowly and steadily toward the big leagues before making his debut in September. His approach has been awesome: He has a very good eye, he recognizes soft stuff out of the hand, and while he doesn’t swing a ton, he reliably turns it loose on pitches he can drive. If you put a ton of stock in swing decisions, this is your guy.
Statistically, all is well. His production has been strikingly consistent, with Ford notching a wRC+ between 125 and 135 at each full-season level. He’s also posted very small deviations in his walk, strikeout, and — aside from 2024, which he spent in a huge, homer-suppressing yard — ISO numbers, all of which were encouraging. If you value consistent minor league production, this is your guy.
Scouts and evaluators are not universally sold on Ford’s ability to translate that production to the big leagues, though. His bat speed is average and he’s periodically struggled getting his bat to fastballs up in the zone. In his most recent prospect write-up, Eric covered an adjustment Ford made with his feet and timing that seems to have helped this season, but obviously the big leagues will provide a different stress test. I see an average bat with a chance to grow into average game power, but there are scouts who would take the under on both.
Ford’s defensive growth has mirrored his ascent through the minors. His framing has improved but is still fringy, and he may benefit from an ABS assist (though he was actually pretty bad at challenging pitches this season). He shines more in spots where his athleticism takes center stage. He’s quick on plays where the ball is tapped out in front of the plate, and he’s going to catch his share of baserunners. He has an above-average arm, his throwing accuracy has improved, and he caught nearly 25% of would-be-thieves in 2025. Early-career reports questioned whether he had too much trouble simply catching the ball, but his passed-ball figures have plummeted since 2023. I’m projecting an average defender, though again, there are evaluators who will take the under.
It all adds up to a 50 FV report, albeit one where there isn’t a lot of wiggle room if one of the tools doesn’t reach its projection or Ford’s approach buckles against better stuff. In truth, part of that projection is a reflection of the state of catching throughout the league; the bar for being an average regular isn’t very high right now. Still, if he’s average on both sides of the ball, that’s a good player, and he’s the kind of risk Washington should be taking at this stage. Ford could be part of the next good Nationals team, and even if he falls a little short of where we have him here, he’s likely steady enough to be a real upgrade over what they’ve trotted out in recent seasons.
Let’s quickly touch on the other player in the deal. Lyon, the son of former big leaguer Brandon Lyon, signed for nearly $200,000 this summer. He’s a good strike thrower with a bad fastball, a slider and change that flash average, and a delivery with some deception in it. He sat in the low 90s in short starts with Low-A Modesto, and could have another gear as he fills out. He projects as an up-down type and has a low-leverage relief ceiling if he can find a way to throw harder in shorter stints.
One other thing to note: With Ford now in Washington, Seattle will be in the market for a backup catcher. The club is reportedly open to a reunion with Mitch Garver, who hit 24 homers amidst otherwise disappointing production over the past two years as the club’s primary backup catcher; he also started at DH 22 times this season. While Raleigh plays nearly every day, he does DH fairly often, so whoever Seattle signs will probably start about 25% of the time behind the plate.
Ultimately, the deal helps both parties, and one exec I spoke with called it a “win win” move. The more I look at Ferrer, the more he seems like a reliever with another gear, a guy with closer stuff who is a plenty good fit for Seattle’s bullpen as is. Still, I think Washington did well here, getting a high-floor position player at an area of desperate need. The Paul Toboni era is here now, and Nationals fans should be enthused about his first big trade as president of baseball operations with the club.
Many were surprised when Zach McKinstry outpolled Kansas City’s Maikel Garcia and New York’s Ben Rice to win this year’s American League Silver Slugger Award at the utility position. That’s understandable — McKinstry’s numbers weren’t as good as those put up by his co-finalists — but the honor was nonetheless deserved. For one thing, he was a true utility player. Not only did McKinstry start 20 or more games for Detroit at each of third base (69), shortstop (27), and right field (20), he was stationed everywhere besides center field and catcher. Conversely, Garcia started just 21 games at positions other than third base, while Rice’s only action came as a catcher and a first baseman.
And it’s not as though the Tiger didn’t have solid numbers of his own. Over 511 plate appearances, McKinstry slashed .259/.333/.438 with a 114 wRC+. Moreover, he logged 23 doubles, 11 triples, 12 home runs, and 19 stolen bases. Amid little fanfare, the 30-year-old erstwhile Central Michigan University Chippewa was one of the more valuable players on a team that went on to play October baseball.
By most accounts, McKinstry is an overachiever. Exactly one thousand players were chosen before him in the 2016 draft, and he ranked as just the 28th-best prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization when he made his MLB debut in 2020. When the Tigers subsequently traded for him in March 2023 — he was by then a Chicago Cub — he had appeared in 121 big-league games to the tune of a 79 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Read the rest of this entry »
The Winter Meetings begin on Sunday in Orlando, and as always, the FanGraphs crew will be there covering all the baseball buzz. For that reason, I’ll keep this introduction brief; we’ll have more than enough words for you to read in the week ahead, when the offseason action is bound to pick up considerably.
Three weeks ago, I put out a call for fresh mailbag submissions, and you all delivered the goods. I knew I could count on you! We’ve received so many great questions since then, including the four that we’ll get to in a moment, and so I just wanted to thank everyone for holding up your end of the bargain. Now it’s time for us to do our part and answer them!
Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Give a Gift Subscription
Effectively Wild Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
Apple Podcasts Feed
Spotify Feed
YouTube Playlist
Facebook Group
Bluesky Account
Twitter Account
Get Our Merch!
