On Friday night in Seattle, Logan Gilbert was on the mound gutting out two scoreless innings of relief a mere two days after he’d won the third game of the American League Division Series. That performance was do or die; hold the Tigers scoreless or head home for winter. The entire Mariners team contributed to that 15-inning win, never mind any knock-on effects for the pitching staff. A few days after that, on Monday in Toronto, Gilbert tried to reprise his heroic, short-rest effort against a relentless Blue Jays offense in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.

The Mariners couldn’t expect to get a peak Gilbert start, so their bats had to put up enough runs to outrun the ongoing effects of the massive workload its pitching staff shouldered late last week. The offense delivered plenty of scoring, and the pitchers more than held their own despite the circumstances. When it was all settled in a 10-3 Seattle win, the Mariners were just two wins away from their first World Series appearance in franchise history. Read the rest of this entry »

It was really close. On Sunday, in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, in the top of the first inning, with one out and runners on first and third, once and future hero playoff hero Jorge Polanco hit a bouncer to the third baseman. The runner on third was going on contact, but the runner on third was Cal Raleigh, and while relatively quick for a catcher, the Sultan of Squat is not exactly known for his speed. Had the ball been hit anywhere other than directly at a corner infielder, he might have beaten it easily. Instead, Addison Barger’s throw beat Raleigh to the bag by at least three metres (the game was in Canada, after all). But it was still really close.

The throw arrived in plenty of time, and it was by no means off target. To make sure he ran no risk of hitting the runner, Barger wisely threw the ball toward the right side – the first base side – of catcher Alejandro Kirk’s body. The throw wasn’t high either, but it did arrive at shoulder height. Raleigh was running as hard as he could, and in the time it took Kirk to swing his catcher’s mitt from high on his right side to low on his left side, he’d closed the distance to roughly one metre. Then Kirk made an important decision. With Raleigh bearing down on him, he chose not to keep swinging the glove down and toward the plate. He reached out for a high tag and swept the left side of his body out of the way in the same moment. Self-preservation undoubtedly played a role in the decision. It cost him valuable centimetres (God, this feels wrong), and it very nearly allowed Raleigh to sneak his right cleat between Kirk’s legs and onto home plate before his torso crashed into the mitt. For the briefest of moments, the two catchers looked like colliding galaxies, smashing then spinning together as their gravitational fields intertwined:

In real time, the play went from looking like a sure out to an impossibly close call. Maybe Raleigh got his foot in there and maybe he didn’t. The call on the field was out, and unbelievably, the Mariners declined to challenge it. The video never got dissected by the replay room in New York. The chief marketing officer of Zoom Communications, Inc. surely wept. Read the rest of this entry »

The matchup for the National League Championship Series is set, and it will feature the team with the best record in baseball and the team everyone thought would have the best record in baseball. The battle between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be a clash of styles. It’s big market versus small market. Superstars versus Average Joes. But make no mistake, even though Los Angeles has the name recognition (and all the money and resources in the world), Milwaukee’s scrappy roster is one of the most talented in baseball; the Brew Crew’s 6-0 record against the Dodgers during the regular season is evidence of that.

The Brewers’ win over the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS was their first postseason series victory since 2018, when they reached the NLCS only to lose to the Dodgers in seven games. This is their fourth appearance in the Championship Series, and they’re playing for a chance to advance to the World Series for just the second time in franchise history. As for the Dodgers, they’re the defending champions; this will be their eighth NLCS appearance in the last 13 years, making this well-trod ground for them.

The Brewers and Dodgers took very different paths to their success this season, and both have some key questions to answer in the NLCS. Here are the storylines to watch for.

Will the Brewers have enough pitching?

Want another example of these two ballclubs’ contrasting styles? Look no further than their respective pitching staffs. Due to a number of spring injuries, the Brewers started the season with a patchwork starting rotation, but that group quickly stabilized thanks to the emergence of Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, the return of Brandon Woodruff, and the debut of Jacob Misiorowski. Injuries struck again towards the end of the regular season; Woodruff was sidelined with a lat strain in September and veteran Jose Quintana returned from a calf strain just in time for the NLDS. With Quintana limited and Woodruff left off the roster, Milwaukee entered the postseason with a lot fewer options to fill out their rotation. Freddy Peralta was effectively the only pitcher who made a traditional start during the NLDS; he took two turns against the Cubs, allowing five runs in 9 2/3 innings while striking out 15. Priester was lined up to make a traditional start in Game 3, but he allowed four runs in the first inning and was pulled after recording just two outs.

Like the Tigers last year, the Brewers have embraced a strategy of pitching chaos due to a lack of starting options. They used 10 different relievers during the last round, with Misiorowski and Quintana providing bulk innings in the games Peralta didn’t start. Aaron Ashby and Trevor Megill were utilized as openers in front of Misiorowski, and Brewers manager Pat Murphy dug deep into his bullpen to line up the right matchups in critical situations. Combined, the Brewers relief corps threw 30 innings against the Cubs, the most of any team in that round, and put up a 1.20 ERA, the lowest of the eight teams in the Division Series:

In the best-of-seven NLCS, that strategy will be stretched to its limit. The off day between Games 1 and 2 in the NLDS allowed the Brewers to be aggressive with their bullpen usage, but they won’t have that same luxury against the Dodgers. The most immediate question is who will start Game 1. Peralta last pitched on Thursday, which means he’d be lined up to start Game 2 on normal rest. Both Priester and Quintana would be on four days rest after appearing in Game 3 last Wednesday, which means one of those two will likely take the mound to start the series against the Dodgers. The other option would be to run with a full bullpen game in Game 1 and hope that Peralta can provide length in Game 2 before the travel day affords some rest ahead of the three-game set in Los Angeles. Misiorowski should be rested enough to make a bulk relief appearance in Game 3, which would also set him up to be used in a potential Game 7 if it comes to that.

For the Dodgers, the rotation plan is a lot more straightforward. They’ve got four phenomenal starters in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Shohei Ohtani, and they leaned on them heavily during the NLDS. Those four guys threw a combined 22 innings against the Phillies while posting a 2.45 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. Los Angeles will go with Snell to start Game 1 and Yamamoto in Game 2, which would give him his regular five days of rest before a potential start in Game 6.

Ohtani throws a little wrinkle in things for Games 3 and 4, as well as for a potential Game 7. As of Sunday night, according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, the Dodgers had committed to pitching Ohtani “at some point” in the NLCS, though they had not yet announced whether he’d get the ball in Game 3 or Game 4 back in Los Angeles. During the first two rounds, the Dodgers scheduled Ohtani’s starts for games before an off day, so he would have a day to recover before DHing. Manager Dave Roberts said the team isn’t going to be doing that for the NLCS, and that Ohtani would be in the lineup as the DH the game after he pitches, no matter what. All but two of Ohtani’s 15 starts this season, including Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies, have come on six or more days of rest, and none since the end of June, when he was only throwing one or two innings while coming back from elbow reconstruction surgery. The starter for Game 7 becomes a little murkier if Ohtani pitches in Game 3; typically, that would line him up to start the final game, but he’d be pitching on just four days of rest, something he hasn’t done this year. Game 7 would be an all-hands-on-deck situation anyway, so it’s possible Ohtani and Glasnow could combine to cover most of the innings in that winner-take-all game. If that’s the plan, then it would make more sense to have Ohtani start Game 3 because it would give him an extra day to recover than if he were to start Game 4 and still be needed for Game 7.

Can the Dodgers’ bullpen contain the Brewers’ offense?

Beyond the starting unit’s quality, the big reason the Dodgers relied so heavily on their rotation during the first two rounds of the playoffs is because their bullpen has really struggled over the last month. In September, Dodgers relievers posted a 4.90 ERA, and that has jumped to a 5.75 ERA in October. Roberts has trusted just four relievers in high-leverage situations during the previous two rounds of the playoffs:

Of those four pitchers, just one has avoided allowing a run so far in October: Roki Sasaki. After a rough start to his MLB career, including a 4.72 ERA as a starter followed by a shoulder injury that sidelined him for four months, Sasaki has been a revelation in relief. His fastball has looked sharp, averaging nearly 100 mph, and he’s simplified his approach by featuring his unhittable splitter nearly half the time while ditching his slider completely. Tanner Scott was removed from the NLDS roster due to injury, so Los Angeles won’t have him as a late-inning option in this series either. Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, and Emmet Sheehan will once again be called on to form a bridge from the Dodgers’ starters to Sasaki, which is where things could get fraught.

The Brewers’ offense excels at putting pressure on the opposing defense. They had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball this year, and they were one of the most aggressive teams on the basepaths during the regular season. They put the ball in play, force their opponents to play flawless defense, and are quick to take advantage of any mistakes in the field. During the regular season, they put up a 107 wRC+, their best mark of this window of contention that opened back in 2018. Their .145 ISO ranked just 25th overall, but it jumped up to .159 during the second half of the season, and it’s up to .175 in the postseason. They also have a knack for clutch hitting: 14 of the 22 runs they scored against the Cubs came with two outs, and they had 10 two-out, two-strike hits, including four home runs, in the NLDS.

The Dodgers aren’t an especially strong defensive team, breaking even with 0 FRV, 17th in baseball. Of particular interest this October is Will Smith. Normally able to put a damper on opposing teams’ run game, the hairline fracture in Smith’s right hand clearly affected his ability to throw in the NLDS; the Phillies stole four bases while he was behind the plate. The lingering effects of that injury were enough to keep him out of the starting lineup during the first two games against the Phillies, and if his hand is still bothering him, I’d expect the Brewers to try and put the game in motion as soon as they get runners on base.

The other factor that the Brewers use to their advantage is a deep bench that’s filled with players who can turn a late-inning at-bat into a favorable matchup. But while there will be some chess moves to make with the bottom half of the lineup, they’re confident in the production from Christian Yelich, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and William Contreras at the top; that quartet combined for 21 hits, four home runs, and 11 RBI during the NLDS. That said, the other eight players who had a plate appearance during that series collected 19 hits, three home runs, and 10 RBI. One thing to monitor is the state of Chourio’s right hamstring; during Game 1 of the NLDS, he re-aggravated an injury that kept him on the IL for all of August. It wasn’t a serious enough to keep him out of the lineup in any other game during the series, but his ability to run full speed was clearly compromised.

Will Shohei Ohtani break out of his slump?

For the Dodgers, the biggest concern for their offense is the sudden silence of Shohei Ohtani’s bat. The superstar had three hits and two home runs in the Wild Card Series against the Cincinnati Reds, but the Phillies’ cavalcade of left-handed pitchers held him to just a single hit in 20 plate appearances while striking him out nine times in the NLDS. Ohtani won’t have to worry about as many left-handed pitchers while facing the Brewers, though I’m sure he’ll see plenty of Ashby and Jared Koenig in high-leverage situations.

Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Tommy Edman picked up the slack for the Dodgers against Philadelphia, combining for four hits apiece, two home runs, and six RBI; postseason hero Enrique Hernández chipped in with three hits and three RBI of his own. Including their series win over the Reds, the team has a 108 wRC+ in the postseason so far, with 31 runs in six games.

Even with one of their best bats mired in a slump, the Dodgers’ lineup has so many other incredible hitters that they can still pound an opposing team without skipping a beat. They had the second best wRC+ in baseball during the regular season, with a lineup that features a trio of former MVPs and a strong supporting cast. Although Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy didn’t slump as hard as Ohtani against the Phillies, I’m sure they will be glad to see fewer left-handed pitchers in this series. And even though Smith might not be 100%, his return lengthened the lineup by pushing Ben Rortvedt to the bench. Ohtani is still a critical piece of the offense — Roberts went so far as to say that the team won’t win the World Series without better production from him — but there are so many other ways the Dodgers can beat you.

The Projection

On paper, it would seem like the Dodgers’ star power and extensive postseason experience would give them the upper hand over the Brewers. Still, the Brew Crew is a lot more than the sum of their parts, which will make this series a fascinating battle between two very different ballclubs.

NEW YORK — About 45 minutes after the “best team” that Aaron Boone has ever managed was eliminated from the playoffs, several of its members sat in the clubhouse drinking a few small beers. The mood was wistful, the somber finality of it all floating through the very same air that less than a week earlier had reeked of celebratory champagne.

They had just lost the American League Division Series to the Blue Jays in four games, and for the most part, it wasn’t all that close. Despite an all-time great postseason performance from Aaron Judge following yet another all-time great regular season from him, New York was thoroughly outplayed by Toronto. Boasting the most annoying opposing lineup in baseball, the Jays peppered pitchers with their all-fields approach and their refusal to swing and miss. Theirs was a Boomer’s more-than-platonic ideal of an offense – they had the lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) and the highest batting average (.265) in the majors this season — but it wasn’t a true throwback. The Blue Jays weren’t dependent on the long ball, but they were more than capable of hitting home runs, as we all saw during the ALDS. As a team, Toronto slashed .338/.373/.601 for a 168 wRC+ across the four games. Yankees pitchers struck out 23.7% of the hitters they faced during the regular season but just 14.9% of the Blue Jays who batted in the series.

“They beat us this series,” Boone said. “Simple as that.”

Yet even as the Yankees accepted their fate, that they had played their last baseball game of the season, they were still trying to understand how it all went wrong. Hadn’t they addressed their shortcomings from a year ago, when they lost to the Dodgers in the World Series? They lengthened their lineup, improved their baserunning, and enhanced their rotation during the offseason, and then ahead of the trade deadline, they made more moves designed to shore up their defense and bolster their bullpen. Some of those deals didn’t pan out, but many of them did. Read the rest of this entry »

Jorge Polanco played the hero on Friday night, ending the epic Division Series Game 5 with an RBI single in the 15th inning off the Tigers’ Tommy Kahnle. Two nights later, in the American League Championship Series opener in Toronto, Polanco added to his October highlight reel with a pair of late-inning RBI singles against Blue Jays relievers, the first of which gave Seattle the lead. The switch-hitting second baseman wasn’t the only Mariner who came up big, as Bryce Miller tossed six strong innings on three days of rest, Cal Raleigh clubbed a game-tying solo homer, and three relievers turned in perfect innings as the Mariners took Game 1 in Toronto, 3-1.

In marked contrast to the four-hour and 58-minute Division Series finale that allowed Seattle to advance, this was a comparatively concise and fast-paced game, completed in two hours and 48 minutes. After throwing 209 pitches to the Tigers on Friday night, the Mariners mercifully needed just an even 100 pitches to dispatch the Blue Jays while giving up just two hits.

For as compelling a matchup as an ALCS pitting the two 1977 expansion teams — one seeking its first World Series berth in 32 years, the other its first-ever pennant — the pairing of Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman against Miller appeared to be a mismatch based on their respective arcs. Coming off a strong regular season and a stellar Division Series Game 1 start against the Yankees, and with seven days of rest under his belt, Gausman appeared to have quite the advantage on Miller, who scuffled this year due to injuries, took an early exit in his Division Series Game 4 start against the Tigers, and started on Sunday only because ALDS Game 2 starter Luis Castillo and Game 3 starter Logan Gilbert were both called upon in relief during the extra innings of Game 5. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the first lessons we learn about life is that it’s rarely fair. Neither the Seattle Mariners nor the Toronto Blue Jays are historical doormats, but both franchises have been plagued over the last three decades by a lack of postseason success, if they reached the playoffs at all.

After the Jays won the 1993 World Series, it was 22 years until they made another postseason. Toronto has a lot of recent October appearances, but finished last in the AL East in 2024 and came into the 2025 playoffs after being swept out of the wild card round in its last three opportunities, including by Seattle in 2022. Aside from that series three years ago, the Mariners have had it even worse: They’ve never won a World Series — never even played in one — and their 2022 postseason appearance snapped a 21-year playoff drought. So the 2025 ALCS is a pretty big deal for both teams, as someone is going to face the Brewers or Dodgers for baseball’s championship. Read the rest of this entry »

And just like that, the postseason field is down to four teams. Tonight, the Blue Jays host the Mariners for Game 1 of the ALCS; tomorrow, the NLCS between the Brewers and Dodgers gets underway in Milwaukee. Two of those four clubs advanced to the CS in ridiculous fashion. First, on Thursday, Los Angeles walked off the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS when, with the bases loaded and two outs, Orion Kerkering panicked after recovering a deflected comebacker and airmailed his throw home instead of tossing to first for the sure out. In his recap of the game, Ben Clemens dubbed the play “Orion’s Melt.” Then, on Friday night, the Mariners and Tigers played 15 innings of baseball before Jorge Polanco ripped a walk-off single into right field.

As always, we’re writing about everything going on during the postseason. You can find Davy Andrews’ recap of Milwaukee’s Game 5 win over the Cubs from last night here. Later today, Dan Szymborski is previewing the ALCS, then Jay Jaffe will have Game 1 covered for you tonight.

Before we get to this week’s mailbag, I’d like to remind you all of a quick programming note. We’re still doing our weekly mailbag during the postseason, but like today, we might move around the specific day it runs depending on the playoff schedule. Our plan is to do one before every postseason round. Also, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie MacIver has caught a lot of power arms since entering pro ball in 2018. Some were in Sacramento this season — the 28-year-old University of Washington product spent a chunk of the summer with the Athletics, backing up Shea Langeliers — but none of those hurlers stand out as having the best raw stuff he’s been behind the dish for. That distinction belongs to a former Colorado Rockies farmhand whose brief major-league ledger includes a 22.09 ERA and a 22.7% walk rate over five appearances comprising three-and-a-third innings.

“I caught a guy named Riley Pint,” said MacIver, citing the right-handed flamethrower whom the Rockies drafted fourth overall in 2016 out of an Overland, Kansas high school. “To this day, he has the best stuff I’ve ever seen. I caught him from Low-A all the way through Triple-A, so I was on the ride with him the whole time.”

That ride isn’t necessarily over. Pint is just 27 years old, and while he missed the 2025 season with an injury, the arm is indeed special. MacIver caught him as recently as 2024, and it’s being Pint, and not recent teammate Mason Miller, who he cited speaks volumes.

“When we were in Low-A, it was 102 [mph] all over the place,” MacIver told me. “Then he started throwing a sinker. We were at Driveline together and he was throwing sinkers that were registering as left-handed curveballs on the TrackMan. He could make the ball move like nothing else. His sinker would be like negative-eight, and then he would throw a true sweeper that was Morales-like with the horizontal, but at 87 [mph]. Read the rest of this entry »

The house always wins. In the National League Divisional Series between the Brewers and the Cubs, the home team won every game. Game 5, in which both teams ran out of trusted starters and turned to their bullpens, ended up being the lowest scoring game of the series. The scoring was limited to four solo home runs, and although the Cubs hit 57 more homers than the Brewers during the regular season and two more during this NLDS, the Brewers powered up when it counted. With home runs from William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, and Brice Turang, they beat the Cubs, 3-1, and will host the Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Monday.

Just as they’d done during the regular season, the two teams came as close as they possibly could to splitting the series. The Cubs took the regular season series, 7-6, and the Brewers have now taken the Divisional Series, 3-2, leaving the teams tied at nine. The Cubs will return to Chicago and ponder how to improve a roster that now has a massive, Kyle Tucker-shaped hole in the outfield. The Brewers are headed to the Championship Series for the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since 2018, when they lost to the Dodgers. After seven years, they’ll have the chance for revenge.

Although bullpen games involve plenty of mixing and matching, the early plans seemed pretty well scripted. Milwaukee came out of the gate with the big guns, hoping Trevor Megill could be the first pitcher of the entire series to hold the Cubs scoreless in the first inning, before Pat Murphy looked to Jacob Misiorowski for four. After that, the Brewers had the rest of their bullpen ready to match up, thanks to an off day on Friday. “The pitching guys, myself and Matt Arnold, we just sat in a room and just talked about the possibilities and considered a ton of factors,” said Murphy in the pregame press conference. “But we settled on Megill. He’s going to pitch tonight, regardless.” Read the rest of this entry »