Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the oddly timed end of Derek Falvey’s rein as POBOth for the Twins, Jacob Wilson’s extension and the promising but lopsided A’s, pillow contracts vs. trampoline contracts, which teams have had the most frustrating offseasons, dark-horse-candidate teams for 2026, and listener responses to their previous discussion of a Fellowship of the Ring baseball team.

Audio intro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The Athletic on Falvey
Link to Favley Zoom meeting detail
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to MLBTR on Wilson
Link to 2025 team batting WAR
Link to 2025 team pitching WAR
Link to team WAR projections
Link to sowing/reaping meme
Link to team offseason spending
Link to FG offseason tracker
Link to Rooker on aliens
Link to Robertson retirement news
Link to Crizer on opt-outs
Link to EW wiki on trampolines
Link to BP on inactive teams
Link to Sheehan on inactive teams
Link to The Athletic on trying tiers
Link to projected team WAR
Link to “dark horse” wiki
Link to MLBTR on Evans
Link to Mount Doom scene
Link to Pasquantino news

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Give a Gift Subscription
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 Effectively Wild Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Apple Podcasts Feed 
 Spotify Feed
 YouTube Playlist
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

How much WAR does FanGraphs project Ronald Acuña Jr. for in 2026? It’s a really straightforward question. It should be especially straightforward now that all of our projections are out. But as it turns out, it’s less clear cut than it sounds at first, and clarifying it has two benefits. First, it’ll help you better understand our projections. Second, it’s fun to play with math. So buckle up: We’re doing arithmetic.

First, let’s settle on what the “FanGraphs projection” even is. Here’s the relevant section of Acuña player page:

Eight projections, each with tons of numbers. That’s a lot! But when I say the “FanGraphs projection,” I’m referring to the first green row, the FanGraphs Depth Charts projection or FGDC. That’s the top-line projection we use anywhere on the website that pulls in projections to make predictions. When you see “2026 (Proj),” it’s using that number unless otherwise stated.

That’s settled then, right? We’re projecting Acuña for 5.4 WAR. Why did I have to waste your time with an article about it? It has to do with how we make that projection, a process you’re about to learn about, probably in more detail than you wanted. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the fun parts of writing about baseball is the image services. We use Imagn Images, which is owned by USA Today. Like all image services, it licenses pictures taken by professional photographers all over the world to news organizations without their own photographers. That very much includes FanGraphs. We’re not photographers. I’m definitely not a photographer. Here’s the most recent picture I took. It’s a bunch of dusty foam acoustic panels, and I think you’ll agree that the composition is garbage.

Luckily, the image service allows us to use pictures from actual talented photographers. These people take superlative action shots, and then we grab a convenient one for the top of each article. The system works, but it leaves so, so many cool pictures unused. Today, I’d like to highlight one category of pictures that is a particular favorite of mine: Outfielders smushing themselves into the wall as they try to make a leaping catch. As subgenres go, it’s a delight, and so we’re going to honor the best it has to offer. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Greetings friends! I am enjoying a balmy 14 degrees now, a full 24 degrees of warming in the last four hours!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: If only my mazda was a convertible so I could go enjoy the day

12:03

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t necessarily see them as better

12:03

Dan Szymborski: It already liked PCA a ton. Sees Bregman/Tucker swap a wash. No more excited about the rotation and nobody has a projection as good as Steele last year. Likes bullpen a bit better

Read the rest of this entry »

In case you missed them, the 2026 ZiPS projections are now officially in the site’s projection database for your delight (or disdain), and reflect all of the signings and trades that have transpired this offseason. There’s still a week and a half to go before pitchers and catchers report, but with the full set of projections available, and it being so cold and snowy outside that I have little desire to leave my house, this seemed like a good opportunity to run the first set of ZiPS projected standings for the 2026 season. These, of course, aren’t the final projected standings, as there are likely to be significant changes between now and Opening Day. Instead, think of them as the “state of the preseason” projections.

These standings are the result of a million simulations, not results obtained from binomial or even beta-binomial magic. The methodology isn’t identical to the one we use for our Playoff Odds, which will launch soon. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my reasoned understanding of each team. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion.

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk that changes the baseline plate appearances or innings pitched for each player. ZiPS then automatically and proportionally “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Read the rest of this entry »

When Eric Longenhagen put together our 2018 Philadelphia Phillies top prospects list, he described southpaw Ranger Suárez as “small but athletic and mechanically efficient, unfurling a sinker/slider combination that has a chance to play at the back of a rotation.” Having yet to pitch above High-A, the 22-year-old Suárez was assigned a 40 FV and a 2020 ETA.

He has gone on to exceed expectations. Not only did Suárez reach the majors earlier than anticipated — July of that same season — he has evolved into a frontline starter. After first establishing himself as a reliever, the Pie de Cuesta, Venezuela native moved into the Phillies rotation in August 2021, and since then, he boasts a 3.39 ERA and a 3.45 FIP over 654 frames. Moreover, he has gone 4-1 with a 1.48 ERA in the postseason, a contributing factor to his desirability in the free agent market. As chronicled by my colleague Davy Andrews, the Red Sox inked Suárez to a five-year, $130-million deal earlier this month.

When Sonny Gray met with the Boston media after being acquired via trade from the St. Louis Cardinals in late November, I asked the veteran right-hander if he feels settled in to who he’ll be going forward, or if he foresees making any changes to his repertoire or pitch usage. I haven’t had an opportunity to ask that question to Suárez, but I did present a version of it to Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. Does the organization’s pitching brain trust anticipate suggesting any tweaks, or do they view the 30-year-old lefty as someone who already optimizes his talents? Read the rest of this entry »