FanGraphs Baseball

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/1/26

It may be a chat! Who knows?

Hi Dan, in a league that uses BA, HR, RBI, SB but not runs scored, how much would you push down players who hit first or second in their lineup versus 3/4/5? I’m thinking Witt, Wood, Chourio and similar players rated as first rounders for 2027 but who seem to get a good amount of value from run scored; i know I should move them down a little bit relative to the big power hitters with higher RBI totals, I’m just not sure how much.

Unless you think they're going to be knocked down in the order, don't push them down at all! If you do think, mentally knock off 15-20ish PAs per slot.

What do you think Padres do well?

The team is aggressive, and do well at identifying what the problem is, even if they're not always great a solving them. They're excellent at finding raw reliever types and making them effective. Those are the two biggest

Phil Castellini said this morning, "we need to let the baseball folks run the baseball team" in so many words. I'll believe it when i see it.

Do you think any of the teams with a significant playoff drought will make it next year?

The Pirates *could*. And I think if the Nats had a couple big things go their way in FA, I think they could ahve enough pitching to be at least interesting

What happened with the Cubs? Offense went so cold.

Sometimes team just suck in two games

The Dodgers had 14 independent losing streaks this year (two games or more). And all of them were to teams worse than them, naturally

It just comes down to who executed that day, and it's not predictive or meaningful in any sense. Just embrace the chaos

Dan, is it too late to make ZiPS project the Padres to be favored over the Brewers? I worry Pat Murphy is running out of motivational material.

Model changes would not be a great idea mid playoffs!

But a good leader can find something to hate

What’s up with the reluctance to label anything as an error. Thinking specifically of the Harper and Alvarez misplays.

To be an error, either a grounder has to go through your legs, a lazy throw has to be horribly off, or you have to do something that looks like a vaudeville sketch

Hey Dan. What do you make of the starting rotations for the Brewers-Padres series? Seems like Miz being able to start twice is a huge advantage for MIL, while the Padres lack of rotation depth is a negative as these series get longer and longer.

It's very helpful, and you'll see it in the projections!

What percentile would CWS beating LAD in the World Series be in terms of all time sports upsets?

Basically, no baseball playoff series could possibly even be anywhere high on a list

What are your thoughts on how Boston handled its SP in the two games?

I didn't always like who they CHOSE for relief, but I don't have any problems with the decisions themselves. I know Gray is unhappy, but his velocity was dropping quickly and his command was clearly off

And it's kinda hard to get too upset about individual pitching decisions when your team scored two runs in two games anyway

A man a Dan a chat a cat eating Arbys, ybragnitaetacatahcanadanama

Are the Red Sox that bad or are the Yankees playing to their talent level finally? I know Boston can't hit but they supposedly have a good bullpen

I mean, the Yankees are a really good team.

If you ran the Cubs, what are the 2-3 moves you’d make to close the gap with Milwaukee? I’m through with the Jed/Carter regime; what would you and ZiPS do?

Really think you need to go all-in on top pitching as much as you can . It's fine to have value guys, but the Cubs had too many value guys.

Do you think the Yankees roster construction for the short series is the way teams should go in the future, 16 p9 players and 10 pitchers?

I wholeheartedly agree with Baumann's piece. As long as you have an arm who can be the mopup dude if things get out of control, you don't need to carry a billion pitchers for three games.

Do you think the way the Yankees constructed their roster is how teams should do it for a short series? 16 position players and only 10 pitchers?

I assume Brandon Lowe's All-Star–worthy season has bumped his projections (which were pretty bad), but by how much? Is there any justification for giving him even a medium-sized contract?

Quite a bit – he's a 3.something WAR guy for next year in ZiPS. Nothing crazy, but he should get a pretty good deal

How does ZiPS react to Ty France's season? He achieved something like his 99th percentile outcome from the preseason projection. How many other cases has there been with such a high achievement compared to expectations?

97th in ZiPS! And yeahyou expect like 60 guys to do that in a year, though some will be harder to tell because they 97th percentile still sucks or they're in the minors

I'm guessing he'll be up to a 105-110 wRC+ in the projections?

Should Cole or Rodon start game 1? Does Zips think it matter

Order tends not to really matter so much

follow up on the angels team: what do you think is the most realistic pathway Kroenke will take? personally i think he'll push hard for skubal

Honestly? I don't have the slightest idea what the Angels end up doing

Obviously baseball player evaluation is hard but watching the Yankees series it came to mind that none of Warren, Rice, Schlittler, or Jones we're really ranked in Top 100 lists (Jones was in and out a few times). What was missed with these players that have become big contributors that wasn't seen by people who scout these players?

Honestly, I'm not sure there's something to *do*, though it's always important to keep your mind open to changing your mind on a player. I do think sometimes the higher floor guys without some real standout tool tend to be underrated

Does Zips this Ben Rice will end his career as the best Rice ever? Or is Jim Rice's crown safe?

I think he likely had too late a start to end up at Jim Rice territory. I'll also say that Jim Rice vs. Sam Rice isn't obvious

What trade do you think Red Sox will make with either the Cardinals/Nationals this offseason?

I could totally see Duran end up with the Cardinals

Abstract question about "reverse replacement level": what would production look like if you took a league-average-ish starter (say Kyle Leahy or Alec Burleson) and sent them down to play a full season at each MiLB level (AAA down to FCL)? Besides the hitters probably just getting pitched around, would they put up video game stats or "just" peak SEC-type lines?

Think about 20 points of wRC+ higher than in the majors or so

I need the White Sox to keep winning just to see Mune's postgame interviews.

Dan! I’m sad! The Cubs looked like absolute pop on toast for the last month and then went out with a whimper! HELP MAKE THE SAD GO AWAY

You literally have a dice roll in your handle!

Why was Dustin Harris hitting second last night? Also, who is Dustin Harris?

I will note here that ZiPS has Harris with the with the 3rd best OBP against righties on the Padres roster, at .330 (.350 for Tatis, .332 for France)

that was supposed to say “poop on toast,” fyi

Pop on toast sounds pretty bad too. I like coke and I like toast, but a piece of toast that has been soaked in Coke sounds pretty gross. Also, you're saying pop instead of soda, which is also gross

Related FA question: if a guy is an FA when the CBA expires, could a team sign them to a "minor league" contract with a gazillion-dollar signing bonus and let them play at AAA until the lockout ends?

By my understanding, a free agent who is a free agent under the terms of the prior CBA is still considered part of the "MLB Player" bargaining unit

but I think TECHNICALLY if he's signed to the deal BEFORE the lockout, then he's not part of the bargaining unit? But I don't think anyone's done that for obvious awkward reasons

But if, say, Skubal signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers with a $300 million signing bonus, I imagine there would be huge controversy that neither side wants to deal with. Nor do I think a player would do quite that situation if they're a big name

How much better would the Ray’s WS odds be if they hadn’t randomly traded Lowe and Montgomery for garbage?

Honestly, probably marginal

What's your offseason plan to get the Os in the thick of the division race if you're in charge?

SPEND ON PITCHING

Ha, I never noticed that about my handle. My name is Warren and the prequels came out when I was first dating my ex. Her brother was 12 and he started calling me War2D2 because it sounded like R2-D2 and he was, as I said, 12.

Honestly, I thought War was for baseball and 2D2 was a joke about rolling two two-sided dice

What is the current "market inefficiency" that savvy teams take advantage of that we might not always think about?

I think there's still a definable difference between teams at identifying OKish players with upside. The Brewers rule this in a way that even the Rays don't

re: Subs pitching. Value guys are a lovely floor. It's great to have a roster full of guys who aren't holes. But at some point you have to have someone step up and perform as a star. It's a gamble, for sure, and an expensive one. But the best way to win that gamble is to sign guys who are already stars.

How does ZiPS feel about the 2027 White Sox as currently constructed? I assume it has a relatively high opinion of Vargas, but I doubt they're getting 8 WAR out of Meidroth and Peters again, and I feel like their rotation is very weak. Are they still tracking like a bottom~10 team next year?

ZiPS think they're OKish, like 78 to 83 wins or so, but that's good enough to be interesting in the AL Central

The White Sox have done a really good job at throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. That's one of the advantages bad teams have that good teams just aren't going to match. No contending team can really afford to sign a guy from Banana Ball and see if he works out in the majors

What does ideal roster construction for the Division Series look like? 14 hitters, 12 pitchers? Same for the CS and WS?

Probalby somewhere around that. I wish long relievers were still a thing. I think every team should maintain a roster that allows them to complete any non-extra inning game with two pitchers.

I’m from Chicago, they always say “pop” there but for whatever reason my family said “soda” or “coke” even though we were a Pepsi family. Doubly weird because my family was in Chicago for generations, and my dad was from LA.

Pepsi eww. My girlfriend had to ban me from shaking my fist at Pepsi trucks when we were in public

One of my favorite things to do is ask for a Coke at a restaurant, and when the waiter/waitress asks "is Pepsi OK?" just say "No" and let the awkward silence persist for a few seconds.

(I don't feel guilty doing this because I'm actually always super nice to staff every other interaction and my standard tip is 25%)

Have you watched the show "Pantheon" on Netflix. It's really good

I have not. Truth is, my scripted television/movie watching is far smaller than the average American

For one, baseball takes up most of the screens seven months a year, and I will generally play a game or watch a game stream before watching most TV shows.

My question about Cole and Rodon was based on the presumption Schlittler starts came 2 and Fried game 3, and one of Cole or Rodon might not start at all

I *think* ZiPS will generally prefer Rodon slightly then, but I'm not really positive until I run it

With the Blue Jays losing several notable names to free agency (e.g., Springer, Bieber), and seeing some returnees from long-term injury (e.g., Santander, Ponce, Barger), what's the ZiPS prognosis for 2027? I'm assuming that they sign a SP, as well as one or two position players with SLG upside, but it would be interesting to see the positions at which your projections have the biggest potential marginal gains.

ZiPS does think they need some addition for the holes; right now they'd project as .500y

Thoughts on Marlins SP as RP during bullpen days?

I don't have a problem with it. If soemone is throwing that day, I have zero issue with them making short appearances. Though you kinda want the players to be OK with it, even if they don't technically have a say in the matter

My handle is also kind of a joke because irl I’m 6’5” and R2-D2…is not.

Denzel Clarke 2027 over/under .650 OPS? And if under, what does that mean for his playing time?

Amusingly, ZiPS has him right at .651 OPS. So not taking an over under yet!

RE: Marlins SP throwing during bullpen days, is there any scientific evidence behind the benefit of bullpen days? I've often wondered if the current recovery cycle of a SP is contributing to arm blowouts, but I have no idea how one would go about trying to quantify that when there's basically no counterfactual data to compare with

There's no real data to work with, as far as I know

i was never been much of a soda person, but ive recently fallen into a Dr Pepper craze

Dr. Pepper is interesting since it's hard to figure out what it actually is. Though Dr. Pepper knockoffs have done a good job so someone's figured it out

The best thing about Dr. PEpper is the name gives generic Dr. Pepper room to be creative

I *am* told, by the way, that we'll be able to drop images directly into here at some point

To hijack a Mitch Hedberg joke, the doctorate is unnecessary because I would have drank that from a Mr. Pepper.

At least most other sodas (not Coke) you can kinda identify what it's supposed to be. Like Sprite is lemon and lime (though the recipe is more than that, also Hedberg). And Mountain Dew is vaguely citrus + phlegm

Generic Dr. Peppers do a way better job than generic Cokes. I can clock generic Coke easily, and I can tell how close a Coke is to the date on the bottom of the can. You can tell just by smelling – Coke uses a lot of aromatic oils. A Coke that is 10 months away from date (usually the freshest coke you can get) will smell of citrus oil, vanilla, and cinnamon, with other vague warm spice notes

Yeah, I personally only drink Coke (to the extent I ever drink soda). But my family was crazy for Pepsi, my grandma would drink it with breakfast.

What is Dan having for lunch today, and how much of it is going to be paid as tax to the cats?

I had some Sam's Club General Tso's for lunch. The cats did not get any. None of my current cats are into human food, though Luna will try and stick her paw in your drink out of curiosity.

Luckily, since I mostly drink out of deli containers, I keep a lid on my desk to put on my drink if she's visiting me in my office

I don't like doing dishes, most of my dishes stay in the cabinet. While I use normal utensils, I like drinking out of deli containers and using paper plates.

(I do have a dishwasher)

I tend to accumulate desk forks though

I'll usually keep using the same fork. I'm kinda gross if other people aren't around

Why do you think models (Stuff+, Pitchingbot) think Cavalli is just average but his underlying metrics show him to be elite?

I think it's one of those things where we have to see more, even though this is a copout answer

Mr Pibb > Dr Pepper

Hot topic for sure right now…what should the Cardinals do at 3B for 2027?

Feels like something that would be a trade

Congrats! You’re the new Mariners manager. What’s your first question or move?

"How did I get this job without interviewing for it or expressing interest? Is this even legal?"

I'm kinda curious how long they go with Kerr

though that seems like a lame interesting thing

What are you looking forward to most during the Braves/Phillies game this evening?

Oh, I didn't publish the q

Also curious if the Braves can ensure no righties against Schwarber/Harper

also theres a bunch of james acaster jokes on dr. pepper. "it tastes like a sexy battery", "can says mixed fruit flavor, im not stupid, i know what fruit tastes like. ive never sent a fruit salad for being too dr. peppery"

Mr. Pibb? Dude doesn't even have his degree…

If you think Mountain Dew tastes like phlegm, I would hate to hear your opinion of most energy drinks

energy drinks are worse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkeJQ0IuXfE for reference

Which members of the upcoming 2026 free agency class are flying a bit more under the radar than you would expect, given their underlying data and your projections? Conversely, who seems like an unnecessary overpay risk?

Suzuki maybe? Just feels like he's not talked about a lot relative to his quality

Which MLB player is the Dr Pepper-est of the league? The one you can just can't figure out what he is. For me it might be Francisco Alvarez.

Arraez. He does something weird for 2026 players. And you're just not sure if he IS good or not, since his defensive numbers have been all over the place

this begs the question, is Dr. Pepper the official soda of comedians? whats the official soda of baseball writers?

Diet Coke maybe? A lot of guys don't leave the press box at all, and pound Diet Cokes from the machine that's usually there and available

Now me, I tend to venture out and shotgun a few beers, sometimes with random fans that recognize my name from my badge

Oh, the only cat that was really into human food was Galileo. I swear he could smell if you were thinking about food. He's the one I'd get Arby's for after every vet visit and I'd just hand him the sandwich while in the drive-thru window

One of my strongest sense-memories is of being about 8yo on a family vacation and having Dr. Pepper and saltwater taffy both for the first time. I still like the good doctor, but taffy is unwelcome in my home.

I don't like super chewy things. For some reason I've always had kind of a weak jaw muscle and if I eat a ton of chewy thing, my jaw will be sore for a day or two

Do you think the Cardinals make a play for some actual pitching, or be too afraid/cautious after the new CBA?

I think they'll be conservative

I just took a peek at the FA list. My goodness that's some soda on toast.

with the FA class being somewhat stinky, do you expect more trades to happen this winter than usual?

Yup

I've been asked to bring back the Lightning Round, so I'll do that today. I'll answer what's left in thq queue, but OTHERWISE, I will answer anything, even if I don't know the answer. Except politics and excessively ipersonal things

How will Zips grade Foster Griffith this offseason? Like the NATS stud or the Giardian not so great?

He'll be a useful mid-rotating inning eater probably

Nats would benefit re-signing

Will we have any awards surprises this year? Based on all the inside information twitter thinks you have, you should be counting final ballots by now?

I count the ballots? Jack O'Connell I believe has the access to the formsite submissions

I wonder if someething happened to Jack suddenly, if theres' anyone with access to the awards. Would we have to revote?

re:Cavalli when I see a pitcher who seems to be outperforming his models I generally assume it's something to do with sequencing or deception. Stuff that the bots don't measure so well. You know, "pitching" v "throwing"

Usually more time irons things out nicely!

Meh-plus

What does ZIPs think of Lawrence Butler for 2027v

OK, seems to be working now?

I think it's working now?

averageish

Game One was Austin Riley's redemption of a bad season, Two was Bohm's. By that measure, which sob story is most likely going to swing Game Three? If this isn't the setting for an Aaron Nola CGSO I don't know what is…

oops sorry was getting 500 errors

Red Sox probably already project for around 90 wins in 2027 even with departing FA, right? Very confused about all of this dooming from fans.

probably a few wins under

I've been following Suzuki since he was with Hiroshima, and thought his underlying numbers would translate well to MLB. In other words, not particularly Tsutsugo-esque. However, I do worry about the aging curve for a 32yo corner outfielder who could end up getting nine figures.

yeah, but that's the case for most 32 yo cof

who is your favorite power ranger?

second Black Ranger because it's Johnny Yong Bosch who voices Joshua in the Trails series

Should Mets release Semien?

I would

Does your girlfriend know what you do for a living? Always curious how fangraphs-y writers explain what they do.

Oh, she understands. She's tagged along to a few FG things. But she couldn't tell you much about baseball or what I do beyong writing plus numbers.

I’m really hoping “soda on toast” becomes a thing in SzimChats

Towson High dedicated Randy Dase Field last week. A true legend! He was one of my LPP teachers too, and let's just say he viewed himself primarily as Coach Dase lol. Still, a giant and a worthy tribute.

I had Mr. Dase for 10th-grade social studies

I sent him an email congratulating him when he retired

have you been following pro wrestling at all lately?

I'm always behind in the regular season

What can I do with sardines? They're supposed to be one of the healthiest fish for you, but struggling to come up with stuff besides "eat them plain."

buttered toast

I used to drink Mountain Dew: Code Red when it came out (I was in college), and people would ask what it tasted like. My standard answer was, 'red.' Nobody ever disagreed.

It's abotu accurate

Thanks for a great year Dan! Any non-baseball plans or goals for the offseason you would like to share

I need to clean out the storage room under the stairs

and I'm thinking of getting a smaller server case for one of my servers, like a jonsbo n4

What are your instructions for the fangraphs staff playoff predictions? Is it "try to come up with a feasible scenario" or "your life depends on the outcome, who do you think wins each round?" Or is it left up to the individual

"make your predictions"

Dan, now that the White Sox blew up your Astros prediction, you want to revisit the Cleveland ALDS? The White Sox able to squeeze their pitching though with the extra off day?

well yeah, since I had an impossible task!

Dr Pepper has a strong Chicago connection (with the Official Drink fo the Bears and Soldier Field). Also, lots of neighborhood Pizza Places in Chicago do RC Cola.

after the boston beatdown, seems like the yankees are gonna sleep walk into the WS. I just don't trust TB in the playoffs

I certainly hope Suzuki flies under the radar, the Cubs need to prioritize resigning him in my opinion. I worry he gets priced out of their cheapo owner’s range and they wind up bringing back the smoldering husk of Ian Happ and calling it good.

It's working now!

Parker Messick just confirmed as Guardians G1 starter over Williams, thoughts?

Don't think it's terrible

Do you think there's still much edge in projection systems for fantasy, or just a disadvantage if you aren't using them? I've done a bit of work on team wins projection trying a different systematic approach than anything up at FG, got down to MAE 7.51 wins, and figured I'd just be better off using a composite of the major public systems in the end.

I think everyone uses them, but I think HOW you use them will seaprate you

do you have any other blog subscriptions? like, what else do you read besides fangraphs?

Well, first you have the papers and large sites (I subscribe to NYT and WaPo)

I subscribe to BP

substackwise, I subscribe to Sheehan, Carroll, Greenberg for baseball. For non-baseball, I sub to Yglesias, Silver, Fifth Column, and Central Air

When we say mid rotation innings water, how much war is that? Ordinally, is that a top 50 pitcher in baseball? Top 100?

2ish

Boil spaghetti, drain it but leave it kind of wet, dump a ton of olive oil, shaved parmesan, lots of lemon, and a tin of sardines and toss it violently about. It’s great.

Which Sibelius symphony should I start with?

1, then 2, then 5

Though START with the various symphonic poems with Sibelius

And on that note, I won't test my luck and try to end this chat without anything crashing


Rubbing Some Dirt on It Isn’t Working for the Orioles

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

When is an injury so bad that it requires time off? That depends on all sorts factors. How badly does it hurt? How badly does the team need that player’s production, and how much would playing through it inhibit that production? Would playing through it keep it from healing, exacerbate it, or lead to other injuries? How big is the drop-off between the injured player and whoever would be taking their place?

When is the right time to return from an injury? At any given time in the spring, summer, and fall, we can point to a dozen players whose performance is suffering as they return from an IL stint. Should they have spent more time on the shelf? Nobody knows this for sure, least of all those of us who are watching from the outside. Players see their performance drop off when they return from injuries all the time. Sometimes they returned too early, but sometimes no amount of rest or recuperation would have allowed them to avoid it. Maybe it’s just the unavoidable cost of catching back up to game speed.

Late on the evening of September 25, after the Orioles’ disappointing 2026 season had come to its abrupt, merciful end, Gunnar Henderson revealed to reporters that he’d spent half of it playing through a right wrist injury. “He declined to share the exact details,” wrote The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka, “but said he will not require any surgery.” Even without details, we can draw some obvious inferences. The injury was severe enough to linger for at least three months. That Henderson mentioned it at all indicates that the injury was significant enough to impair his performance, a notion supported by the fact that manager Craig Albernaz “said there were daily check-ins to assess his availability.” Read the rest of this entry »


Padres Grind Through Cubs, Advance to NLDS

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

On Wednesday night, the San Diego Padres eliminated the Chicago Cubs from the playoffs with a 4-1 win. A sold-out, frenzied crowd watched the Friars get to Kevin Gausman early, scoring two runs in the second after a double from Ty France, singles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, and a sacrifice fly from Ethan Salas. A two-run homer from pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets in the fourth put San Diego up by three, and from there, the Cubs barely threatened. It was just the latest big moment in a summer full of them for the Padres: A team that saw its playoff odds drop to 7% in late July will now head to Milwaukee for the NLDS.

When you think about this generation of the San Diego Padres, a number of descriptors may spring to mind. “Exciting” works, for all the stars they’ve rostered and playoff runs they’ve made. “Unpredictable” captures the spirit of a front office bold enough to empty the farm year after year, postseason probability be damned. “Competitive” — you heard all those F-bombs during the game last night, yes? — applies, as might “brash,” particularly if you’re from Los Angeles or Phoenix.

But watching this game, I kept thinking about how poised they looked. It’s an unfamiliar feeling watching this group: Fernando Tatis Jr. is many wonderful things, but there’s very little mellow to him or the team he headlines. In an emotional game, though, which is exactly how they looked, and nobody epitomized that more than San Diego’s young catcher. Read the rest of this entry »


Yankees Bomb Red Sox Out of the Bronx, Postseason

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

NEW YORK — Lefty? Righty? The platoon-heavy Yankees will beat your frontline starter regardless of handedness, and their frontline starter will shut your offense down. That was the case, at least, in this year’s Wild Card Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. After fireballing righty Cam Schlittler overwhelmed Boston in Tuesday night’s opener, lefty Max Fried stifled the Sox for six innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a lineup stacked with eight lefty hitters — and again, no Aaron Judge — pressed Red Sox manager Chad Tracy to pull starter Sonny Gray after just 70 pitches, trailing 1-0. As on Tuesday night, the Yankees broke the game open against Boston’s lefty relievers. New York cruised to a 9-2 victory and a series sweep.

As he did in Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, Fried pitched brilliantly. He held Boston scoreless through the first five innings on just two hits before allowing a solo home run to Willson Contreras with two outs in the sixth. It wasn’t just Boston’s first home run of the series, it was the team’s first run in a playoff game since the sixth inning of Game 2 of last year’s series, a span of 26 2/3 innings. Fried struck out six while walking one; though he got just nine whiffs (18.8%) and a 23.5% called strike and whiff rate, he allowed just three hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. He threw 98 pitches, and when the Yankees broke through for six runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, it was an easy call for manager Aaron Boone to go to his bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2538: No Time Like Late September

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about “October” as a (somewhat imprecise) metonym for the playoffs and the popularity of postseason coverage, praise the Yankees’ pitcher-averse roster construction, recap the highlights and lowlights from the first wild card games, ponder the possibility of pushing relievers too far, answer a listener email about the impact of managers, sympathize with and criticize the Astros for complaining about being booed by their fans, and discuss MLB’s petition to play a game in a national park, Zack Gelof’s lawsuit against the Tigers, and more.

Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: PJ Harding, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Episode 1753
Link to new MLB tagline
Link to Appelman post
Link to play-in tournament
Link to Baumann on the Yankees
Link to packing post
Link to Sheehan WC G1 recaps
Link to Riley homer
Link to Posnanski on Riley
Link to Turner non-play
Link to Miller AFL news
Link to Taylor outing
Link to Pope blessing
Link to Ben on innings shortfalls
Link to Tracy RP explanation
Link to Anthony update
Link to Musgrove fun fact 1
Link to Musgrove fun fact 2
Link to shutouts fun fact
Link to Astros booing story 1
Link to Astros booing story 2
Link to Astros booing story 3
Link to Burke quote
Link to Grand Teton story
Link to public lands story
Link to Craig on Gelof
Link to Greene quote
Link to lawyer explanation
Link to Ruf story
Link to Fowler story
Link to FG on Phillies-Braves G2
Link to Harper article
Link to Realmuto challenge
Link to Ruth exhibition
Link to Dihigo episode

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1:46:25

Two Huge Innings Catapult White Sox Into ALDS

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The fan bases with rooting interest in the White Sox-Astros Wild Card Series entered the postseason with differing perspectives on their teams’ relative talent and season quality. Chicagoans, though perhaps irked at how the division slipped away from them at the end of the season, were likely thrilled to be here after multiple consecutive 100-loss seasons. However, Houston fans, who have enjoyed a higher standard of living for the last decade, aren’t content with parallel parking into the top spot of a bad division, then bowing out in the Wild Card round. That was apparent during Houston’s Game 1 loss, which tasted sour enough to Astros fans that they let the kitchen know about it, and some of the players and manager Joe Espada acknowledged hearing it with varying levels of annoyance.

That set the tone for a mid-afternoon Game 2 at Daikin Park, in which the White Sox landed decisive blows in two big innings and sent Houston packing to win their first postseason series since they won the 2005 World Series. The Sox will now chart a Division Series course for Cleveland. Read the rest of this entry »


Duel, Interrupted: Phillies Come Back To Beat Braves Late, Even Series

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

On September 6 and then again on September 12, Tyler Mahle squared off with the Phillies. Both times, he left them frustrated and flailing; he allowed three runs across 13 innings in two Atlanta victories. In each of those games, Mahle leaned on his splitter quite a bit, something he’s done more frequently since joining the Braves at the trade deadline. That set up an interesting mind game in Wednesday’s Game 2. Seeing the same opponent for the third time in a month, would Mahle change his ways? Would the Phillies change their own approach? And could they overcome the Braves, who had been their nemeses throughout the year, and prolong their season for another day with their Kryptonite on the mound?

Mahle’s splitter was devastating last outing, so clearly the Phillies would have to sit on it. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that they won’t beat his splitter unless they key on it. So clearly, he should throw them fewer splitters. But wait! The Phillies know that Mahle knows that they will probably be sitting on the splitter. So clearly, they can’t look for splitters. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that… Well, you get the idea. There are levels to this, to paraphrase Kendrick Lamar.

Or maybe not. The Phillies either went too many levels up, or they didn’t even get into the endless iocaine powder reasoning loop I just described. Because Mahle came out leaning on his splitter, just as you’d expect, and the Phillies came out with absolutely no solutions. As Arthur C. Clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And to Philadelphia, Mahle’s splitter might as well have been Power Word: Whiff. They surely knew it was coming – it just didn’t matter. Read the rest of this entry »


Fernando Tatis Jr. Went Turbo Mode

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Major league baseball’s postseason derives its spine-tingling intrigue from many sources. There’s the tension — and inherent cruelty — of a months-long season coming down to a handful of games. Perhaps nothing in sports is better than a tightly-contested postseason game entering its final innings, the score so close and the stakes so high that it’s impossible to look away, while also leaving even the most devoted fans wondering if they can bear to watch. From these theatrics we often get epic performances and precise execution. Cam Schlittler dismantling the Red Sox with coiling curveballs and unfair fastballs in front of a bloodthirsty Yankee Stadium crowd, for instance. Grant Taylor’s dastardly 3-2 slider to strike out the potential tying run and end the eighth inning in Tuesday’s Game 1 against the Astros also comes to mind, as does the Braves’ note-perfect double play to squash the Phillies’ ninth-inning rally in their opening round first game.

But sometimes, well, sometimes a similar type of joy comes from the baseball equivalent of a windmill dunk.

The scene? Petco Park, Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. The Padres hold a comfortable 7-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh inning. The actor? Fernando Tatis Jr., arguably the most exhilarating player in the game when he’s hitting all his marks. Looking to extend the lead — or maybe just have a little fun — Tatis takes off from first base on a 2-1 pitch and is rewarded with a curveball in the dirt, a basestealer’s delight. Tatis not only beats the throw to second, it pings off his sliding leg and into no man’s land, dribbling slowly into shallow left field as the Friar Faithful slowly ascertain what’s about to happen. Tatis is going turbo mode.

Moments like this bring fans to their feet and opponents to their knees. Tatis — who reached first on an infield single, and saw the opportunity to turn that hit’s 49.7 mph exit velocity into a run — seemed hellbent on scoring as soon as the ball caromed away from the Cubs’ infield. Is stealing a base with a touchdown-sized lead sort of reckless and unnecessary? Sure. But these are the playoffs, where it’s never a bad idea to add on, especially when presented with the opportunity to exploit a catcher like Carson Kelly, who struggled with the running game all year. We can assume Tatis merely read the scouting report and was putting that knowledge to good use. But once he took second, surely he’d chill there (with no outs!) and give the heart of the Padres’ order a chance to drive him in. Right? Wrong:

Tatis did not stop at third, and probably didn’t even consider doing so. Why would he? Because his third base coach explicitly told him to, long before Tatis even reached third base? That’s super boring. And Tatis, ever the entertainer, sensed that this blowout needed a little extra oomph before people started leaving to beat the traffic. Flying into third base, completely ignoring Bob Henley’s stop sign, and rounding for home are the sorts of moves that only the game’s great showmen have the ability to recognize, and even fewer have the aplomb to pull off. Lurking backlash for running up the score be damned (thankfully, the internet seemed to agree that this play was so awesome that he was spared any criticism), Tatis wants to remind everyone that he’s capable of things other ballplayers are not.

The Padres’ rambunctious right fielder, who has an 89th-percentile sprint speed, correctly identified that his speed would provide much more exhilaration in this situation than scoring from second on a Dustin Harris single would. Again, pretty unnecessary given the circumstance, but people don’t pay postseason ticket prices to see the mundane. They want to see superstars do superstar things, punctuated with the type of emotional outburst that makes postseason baseball so special. Does one man’s primal scream after diving across home plate register as much of a sound when 47,000 San Diegans are also screaming? Probably not, but it makes for one hell of a highlight:

None of this even accounts for the fact that Tatis started this baseball bash with a leadoff home run, giving him seven in 17 playoff games and boosting his lifetime postseason OPS to a nirvanic 1.178. All this from a man who finished April with a 75 wRC+ but who put up a 143 the rest of the way, giving him a strong chance to finish in the top five of MVP voting. His 2026 statistics will show yet another season with at least 25 homers and 25 steals — the fourth time he’s done that — with the lowest strikeout rate of his still-ascendant career to boot. But the numbers won’t tell the full narrative arc. His first home run of the regular season famously did not come until late May, and his team’s playoff odds sagged to a season-low 7.4% in July. The Padres were under .500 as late as July 25, and their deadline acquisitions of Casey Mize and Robbie Ray didn’t do much to help. But thanks to a bullpen unit that tied for second all-time in collective WAR, Jackson Merrill’s second-half revitalization, the surprise production of Harris, Ty France, and Samad Taylor, plus Tatis finding some sort of flow state (which may or may not have something to do with planetary alignment), the Padres are poised to advance into October.

The lesson here? Chase wild, thrill-seeking endeavors over playing it safe. This style of play might just be what San Diego needs in a hypothetical Division Series against the Milwaukee Brewers and their tight, fundamentally sound, 103-win operation. Run free, Fernando Tatis Jr., and deal with the consequences later. At the very least, you gave everyone something to marvel at and helped your team to a convincing win. Which is kind of the whole point of playing postseason baseball.


Everybody Except the Yankees Is Doing Wild Card Roster Construction Wrong

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Big league front offices are, for the most part, populated by cowards. They say they want to win, but what they want most of all is to keep their jobs and not get yelled at. OK, maybe I came on too strong. That’s not cowardice, that’s just life under capitalism. A clever observer might note that one of the major sources of “getting yelled at” for major league GMs is the media — i.e., people like me. Maybe I should be nicer.

Two decades after the sabermetrics revolution shook up baseball’s norms, 30 GMs and/or Ps of BO have converged on a new conventional wisdom: You can never have enough pitchers.

During the regular season, sure. The 162-game slate is a siege by design. Teams play six times a week for six months, and most of the innings of most of those games are pretty pointless. Let’s say the average team plays about 55 defensive innings per week; the team’s top three starters and top two relievers might combine to throw, what, 25 of those innings? Read the rest of this entry »


Members Only Game Thread

Welcome to our first Members Open Game Thread. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual game chats, your messages will be posted immediately.

Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this could be a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked. This is a bit of an experiment, so we’ll see how it goes and potentially make adjustments or even add features as needed. And we certainly welcome your feedback!

Who the **** thought it was a good idea to give Cam Schlittler a breaking ball

Go Cubs, Phillies, Astros, and Red Sox.

Members Only thread..much better than a Members Only jacket.

A FanGraphs Members Only Jacket prototype does exists….

What a time to be alive

Hey all! Like we said, we're trying something new. We'll have staff pop in and out today. But you get to drive the conversation today.

I'm at work with this on my second screen, so I'll need a play by play if I'm going to follow the games.

Since June 14th (19 starts!) Sanchez has an ERA over 4 and a higher FIP than Tyler Mahle. I have concerns.

trust the xfip brother

not sure if its smart to give me the ability to post immediately…

there's some trepidation here, too.

I find the delay on normal threads annoying. Giving members a revokable right to instant post would be a nice perk.

You should be able to click the settings gear in the top right and adjust your delay

Great interview today in the Seattle Times with John Stanton, the Mariners' chairman, about why he's keeping DiPoto and why the M's refuse to sign aging stars.

All right! No safety net! Who’s gonna be the first to end their career with a screenshot

Baseball is awesome, but I have to admit that I'm having a tough time choosing between following this game and taking a post-lunch nap

I'm in the same boat after just getting back from hot pot with my day job colleagues

Roster Resources has Roman Anthony projected to play for the Red Sox today, anyone know what the problem was yesterday?

Hand soreness

We don't make individual edits to lineup projections on the Scores page, we just use the Go-To Starting Lineup that shows on the RosterResource page. So as long as Anthony's on the roster he'll show as projected to play, but we have no idea on his availability today.

A few features to note:
– you can delay the incoming messages up to 3 minutes to using the gear in the top right corner.
– you can reply to a message by hovering over it and clicking in the top right corner.

Is there any way to “pop out” the chat as its own window/tab? On my phone, the extra real estate (and not accidentally scrolling the browser instead of the chat) would be really nice.

very cool work, sean!

Infield in already!

Look at Philly playing small ball

What's the deal with flipping Bohm and Stott last minute?

And no TOOTBLANS through 3 batters, astounding

Wasn't really last minute, got announced about an hour ago

Stott-Bohm was initially a clerical error

phillies dinking singles around, like we all expected

There ya go Suess

I didn't see the play, but does being thrown out at home on a ball in play really count as a TOOTBLAM? I admit it wasn't a force.

Ehhh, without a wide angle to see if Harper broke too early thinking it was through hard to call it a bad read. There was going to be an out somewhere on that play.

Ah well nm

Kinda feels like the Phillies need more than 1 here

suddenly braves have momentum again

I thought it was pretty weird to see the Braves with the infield in in the first. I guess they're very open to the possibility of a low scoring game

I've always been curious on the effectiveness of playing the infield in, in general. Is this the kind of thing we have data on in a way to analyze?

I feel like Weiss was quick to pull the infield in all season

I was thinking about this last half inning. I think the existing data could probably be manipulated to at least come up with SOMETHING. We don't have perfect infield positioning data, but we do have distance from home plate, so there's enough to do some approximating. Offseason project?

I'd read that!

Sam Miller did a rough version of this at Pebble Hunting: https://pebblehunting.substack.com/p/infield-in-is-ideology

Hi Ben!

hi

Don’t think I’ve ever seen a batter with a knee guard like Acuna is wearing.

Is Marsh a non tender candidate? Considering they just paid Bohm 10.2 in his final year, probably not, but that 2nd half wRC+ says 31!

I would be very surprised if he was NTed

(If anyone is lurking both here and in the Rates and Barrels discord, I'm sorry you're seeing me posit this twice)

I appreciate that you are here.

Bad baserunning by Acuna there.

@Ben Clemens any publicity is good publicity for UVA re: Bennett Sousa? He's spoiling all of Ernie Clement and Josh Sborz's postseason goodwill!

we'll take it

Didn’t Marsh hurt his hand or wrist around midseason? Might be the reason for that severe a drop

With the state of the Phillies bullpen, feels like every 15+ pitch inning by Sanchez is a win for the Braves

Acuna is hyped

Lefties with a .391 OPS on the season vs Sanchez. Which is really, really bad, but as Olson just demonstrated, not .000

is this what happens with no moderation? everyone too afraid to talk, or is my chat broken?

I think there just aren't many people on. I keep seeing the same names.

I mean i'm over here trying to do my job, we can't all be content creators

Same, and…I just don't have anything to say. Silence better than noise.

I'm one of those people who types out half a comment before deleting it and staying silent. Is that a millennial thing?

Millennial here, I do that quite often

I find it really annoying that the playoff graphics online and on TV show players stats from the current series, rather than their regular season stats.

Fear. Everything is working. And only one person got put into auto moderation because of a swear word.

How available do we think Duran is? Lotta pitches yesterday but you'd think he could go an inning today or tomorrow. But since you need to win both, if you can only throw him one more time in the series, why not wait until tomorrow when he's better rested?

It’s gotta be all hands on deck so at least a couple of batters, I’d think.

Sean, thanks for the incredibly fast turnaround on that chat delay feature I asked about yesterday! Helped me avoid spoilers given my cable package

No problem! It wasn't too hard, because all we had to do was add X many seconds and filter base on that just in your client. No reason to wait to implement.

Is this the most boring series judged solely by uniforms? Red and blue vs. red and blue

Acuña did not have only four stolen bases this year, no matter how many times they repeat that.

Yeah this has really been throwing me off. Do they not have fact checkers?

Philly needs to win because I’m not ready to lose Kruk this year. Man is delightful in the booth

Beating a dead horse a bit, but Votto is just really good at this- especially at pushing back on some of the other announcers

Some people are charming in ways you just can’t teach, and dude has it.

so far this series feels like it's wasted on the WC round

we should just be happy that not all baseball is a blowout

Sox-Yanks too. That shouldve been a 1-game or a CS.

despite limiting damage how concerning is Sanchez's pitch count?

Not extremely, I'd think? All he needs is a 10-pitch inning and he's right back on track to go his usual 6-7.

Sean, the nested replies are so good visually! Kudos!

🙏

My concern with Mahle is, really, does he have the weapons to get through the lineup more than twice? His splitter's been working quite well but the rest of his stuff just doesn't feel playoff elite.

Getting through the lineup exactly twice is more than enough for all but a handful of starters in these playoffs, IMO

His 4S and FC are both pretty decent

yeah, relievers casting from HP in the playoffs is the standard at this point

I’d let him pitch to exactly one hitter a third time.

I'm sorry can you please translate "casting from HP"? I feel I'm losing nerd cred by even asking

casting from hit points – I just mean they don't need much more from Mahle because bullpens get pushed to the brink as a matter of course in the playoffs

for anyone that was here yesterday around this time, how do the numbers compare to the non-Members only chat?

Until they start spitting on the split let him keep going. Problem is if it’s a close game you might find out too late they’re not chasing it again.

Think there were about double for much of yesterday's game? Maybe a bit more at peak

I finally have my seat at the cool kids table here that is definitely not just a bunch of nerds

You just keep thinking that.

Mahle's probably only going to see Turner three times, Lee/Dodd likely come in to face Schwarber/Harper/Bohm/Stott

Leaning on Lee is going to take a pretty big leap of faith. He was absolutely torched in the second half and the Braves barely pitched him in September. Maybe they're confident he's cleaned up his pitch-tipping, but he gave up runs in two of the four appearances he made over the last two weeks of the season.

Did they come out and say it was pitch tipping? He really was incredible to start the year and the late slide was concerning

Pretty much yes – it was in the team's newsletter https://www.mlb.com/braves/news/dylan-lee-pitch-tipping-seco…

The peripherals weren't nearly as bad as the ERA. You've gotta trust Lee, he's the best lefty in the pen

Thanks. Lee didn't get many whiffs yesterday, but nice to see the velo up at least

Atlanta's great hope for this whole series is to get into the pen as early as possible. But Sanchez is getting stronger as he goes.

Really baffling to me that they keep putting Kim in the lineup. It's hard to imagine more of an automatic out on any team that made the playoffs

The Phillies are right there and have Marchan and Stubbs on their roster.

Is it just me, or are more players wearing the 90s-style skinny pants? Look how tight Acuna’s pants are around the calves. Looks great.

Phils radio crew is just despondent over the walk

He's not the guy you want to walk

He's been hitting like a pitcher this year, except I'm pretty sure back when the braves had Madox/Glavin/et al, their pitchers were better than that.
Edited to add: And after walking Kim he strikes out Acuna. Baseball.

Max Fried was a much better hitter than 2026 Kim

I wonder if the bye team (in this case the Dodgers) get together to watch these wildcard series. Or if they're just taking a few days off to rest

Several players have mentioned the team has watch parties set up.

If I'm Shohei Ohtani, I'm inviting everyone over to my 2800 sq ft hot tub to watch the game on my 2km long tv

I’m guessing they give Rushing the wrong address.

Hoping to hear Matty V say "Oh and he botches it!" at least once this postseason

Okay, just finished enough work that I can turn the game on and coast for the rest of the day, what did i miss!

The first inning definitely had me thinking things could get out of hand, but the pitchers have locked in!

Millennial here, I to do that

I don't know how it is for everyone else, but it's almost like I got all the social part of social media out of my system with Myspace/early FB and now it's a mix of not being able to quite articulate the thought I'm having, fearing negative comments, worrying it isn't going to meaningfully add to the conversation. My urge to even delete this comment is high, but I'm going to resist!

Ya exactly, I got rid of most of the social media stuff years ago (use bluesky for science since im a microbiologist and its good for that) and just struggle with the idea that anyone gives a schlitt about random things i have to say (or most of the time not say lol)

I totally get what you mean. Awesome that you're a microbiologist btw

I really like Bluesky for following researchers and science news too. plus pretty much all my preferred baseball writers are there too

Love a ground ball pitcher

looks like playing IF in in the 1st inning has been a smart idea so far

Can the White Sox actually make the World Series??

with 1.5 usable SP, that would be reminiscent of the 2006 Cardinals

Since my Tigers let me down ..

I would much rather be able to watch the playoff games with the MLB.tv subscription that I pay for every year…but the fact that the little field view on Gameday shows the little box position players doing grounders and throws to first while the pitcher is tossing warmup pitches is kind of delightful.

Is that Maddux out there today–lol

Votto is so good at this. Avoiding nonsense and providing actual analysis of Schwarber mid-at bat

I love Votto completely ignoring the dumb question

Dealing!

Harper just has one of those swings, man

Gosh that sequence was good from Mahle

Whats the deal with that philly fan's costume? Is that supposed to be the Phanatic? Is this a Philly-Florida Gators Crossover?

Mahle carving up the Phillies, as expected

3.32 FIP since the trade and 1 ER over 13 innings in his last two starts against Philly. Braves have made adjustments to his mix that have yielded results

So do you bring Mahle back for the 6th facing the middle of the order a third time? Or say that 5 innings is a job well done and turn it over to the relievers?

I struggle with that, any time a SP is looking good I want them to come back out

Definitely let him start the next inning

He's looked good but guys are good until they aren't sometimes

Think philly's offense has been so anemic you can push him a bit with a short leash

Philly 28th in baseball v. RHP this year

Backstreet Boys on the organ, love it!

Braves' organist is very fun!

What a fun job that would be!

Organist a fan of the Backstreet Boys?

A Braves Dodgers series would be pretty epic for organs

Dieter Ruehle (Dodgers and LA Kings organist) is one of the best, yes!

I will never not be upset when there is an in-game picture-in-picture ad

Any in-game alteration of the video — including showing stupid mid-game interviews — is terrible.

mattingly's got the look of a man that's about to let sanchez throw 800 pitches today

[Hooded Kermit meme] do it.

pleeeeeease

Mattingly is at least partially responsible for playoff Kershaw.

Agreed!

Kruk is having a hilarious and great series

and theres the play that will haunt the phillies

sike just kidding hehe

What an awkward play

The Phillies defense is frustating.

Pitcher deflection messing up a play is always so frustrating, you can't blame them for reacting on instincts

This is peak Phillies baseball

Woooooooow

Maybe I spoke too soon on the Phils defense

Crowd got silent REAL FAST.

Another win for infield in

Wow

Or at least a little in

The ever famous 3-2-3 double play!

At some point you would've thought someone would tell Michael Harris he can take a pitch

Just how they drew it up

Sanchez must feel like an impossible matchup if you’re Harris.

Harris is pretty good v lefties tbh

I was about to ask if we’re talking about the same Harris but I looked up his splits again – increased his OPS vs lefties by 150 pts this year. So not as bad as he used to be.

Mahle back out for the 7th, surprising.

Just like I always say, Phillies are all about defense.

I think these are his last 3 hitters

yeah if it gets to schwarber a lefty is definitely coming in

First 2 splits to JT were nkt well located

I know Mahle was way better with the Braves but I was not expecting a playoff start this good.

Man 7IP 1ER from Mahle is better than anyone even dreamed of in this game

I feel like if I were Votto I'd only be saved from tearing my hair out watching this game by the lack of hair

Man, Mahle facing 28 batters and giving up only 1 run is an enormous win for the Braves

Like, Mahle has one move. And he's already showed them that move TWICE in September.

55 splitters! Massive

And they keep being like 'wait what, a splitter? what is this?'

It's one thing when it is a reliever spamming one pitch (idk why but Tommy Kahnle's changeup is what I think about for this archetype) but I feel like you aren't fully prepared if you let a starter throw that pitch mix

(I'm recapping this game, this is going to be a focus of my writeup)

Way more than he's ever thrown before

So even if you're 'ready' for it, going that far above his previous high is ballsy

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it mentality

The ump view on the splits made it look really difficult to pick up that spin in daylight.

🎶Take me out to the ballgame
Take me out to the crowd
Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jacks
I don't care if I never get back🎶

Can we get some sort of animation and midi music?

Is it too late for the Phillies to sign Votto to take an ab? He's probably the guy in the building most capable of taking those splitters

Votto said he was getting Braves playoff nervousness from his 2020 trip there, so maybe he's too out of the game to do it. BUt otherwise, yeah, their lefties were not really up to the task today.

"They didn't need the Pope, they had Cam Schlittler"

God bless you Franzke

How can Sanchez be the "pitcher of record" in a tie game?

Listening to the radio call and not being able to see the actual pitch makes these ABS reviews much more dramatic

I really wish they'd take away the K zone

yes please!

Is this game gonna be the end of the Phillies window?

I think the starting pitching is too good for that, the floor is fairly high. But the position player age and cost is concerning for sure

please break it open now braves

Great day from murphy, walk, double, 3 (I think?) abs overturns

How do you let Kim bat here? Have they no bench?

Mattingly has no good options here, but this is a highly risky decision, assuming the intent is to leave him in to face Acuña for a fourth time.

Oh man bad decision there

oh noooooooooo

now THIS is the play that will haunt the phillies

crazy going to second there

The throw wasn't horrendous, but you can't go to second there unless you're *sure* you'll get him!

Once that ball is past you, it makes no sense to go to second

I find watching baseball so much more enjoyable when there is no k zone overlay

Killer non-challenge on the 0-1

If they just take the out at 1st, things are looking much better here.

if they take the out at 1st, do they just walk acuna, and they're in the same spot anyway?

You can't walk him there, IMO

Even if they get 1, you're still in the game. Have to prevent a big inning.

Is Country Roads the Dolly Parton of songs?

Nooooooooo waaaaaaay

No, that’s the one that will haunt them

Oooooooof

That's a clown play

now THIS is the play that will haunt the phillies

oh noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

holy bad defense

Harper about to be a meme

LOL

unbelievable

LOVE THAT PHILLIES DEEEEEEEEE

Bryce Harper with those deck-of-cards hops

That was not great

Maybe they shouldn't have moved him to the outfield in the middle of the season

Arraez isn't even on the roster, what is he doing out there

I feel like I just watched a car crash

slo mo

Check in on the Phillies fans in your life

should baldwin be that pumped up for an error

Yes

Potential series winning run scoring? Yes?

(im being facetious if thats not clear)

(Handshake meme) Acuna – Harper – misplays in RG that allow a run

I hate how few things are recorded as errors these days

That wasn’t an error???

it was an error whether it was recorded or not

That should have been the "Oh and he botches it!" call

Cannot think of a worse way for the Phillies to potentially lose an elimination game

I mean, last year Kerkering, but yeah

When I played RF in rec league softball a few years back, that's pretty much how I played fly balls.

I played kickball a few times a couple years ago and I could not believe how hard of a time I had tracking those fly balls!

One time, with the sun in my eyes, I somehow got under a fliner, scared me a little when the ball landed in my glove.

Is there wind?

It is insane to leave Sanchez in here

Sanchez at 115 pitches

i expected the Phillies defense to be bad but this plus the wrist hit yesterday seem more like pure flukes or nerves then bad baseball

hooooooo weeeeeee

Do the Braves go Suarez/Iglesias from here then?

Probably Fuentes next unless they want Lee for the lefty/lefty

Ive said this in every thread ever since defense wasnt mentioned at all in the preview article, but PHI's poor defense is a story. A better CF than Hill catches Ozzie's triple, a better IF gets Harris, and most RF catch that go-ahead flyball.

not to mention bohm's play on the bunt

I'm sorry, how was that ruled a hit?

So silly. You can't even give the usual excuse that he never touched it.

That was my thought!

A batted ball with an xBA of .08 that hit the fielder's glove on the fly when they had ample time to catch is like the textbook definition of an OF error, but I guess I'm not an official scorekeeper

Nelson Cruz flashbacks on that one. Sorry Bryce (and Rangers fans)

As a Braves fan, I lack the imagination to conceive of a more enjoyable way to take a lead in a crucial game.

seconded

Let's not jinx it, lest Philly find a way to have an equal and opposite heartbreaking lead change

21.7% change in WPA after the Harper drop, really hate to see it happen to such an intelligent guy

My bad. 😞

can't watch at work, but saw the replay of that flyball….big OOF

Schwarber bunt?? Nah, he's just goofin'

On the one hand, this series has been far too weird that I expected game 2 would continue as it was. On the other hand, there's still 2 innings left for another twist to happen.

Guessing a solo shot here and then Iglesias causes drama in the 9th

Lotto numbers plz.

Are you from the future

Im from the land of "watching the Braves all season"

did the writers leak the script to you

a prophet

I mean you can do that too

Knew it

schwarber shouldve bunted

I think I just heard that ball ounce off the front of my place here in Philly

I think Dylan Lee would've rather made a different pitch

Ok, I’m done here

Well this is less fun

Oops the drama came an inning early haha

wowwwwww

Philly needed their dudes to be dudes and they delivered.

HAHAHHAHA

lmaoooo

Well that was fun!

Ah well. We'll call that a wash

dear god

I was literally thinking "The Phillies have six outs to save their legacy" and they didn't even need one!

i just opened the broadcast and thought it was just really behind lol

harper is too relieved to even celebrate

Is he tipping again? They’re unloading

I hate being Cassandra on this, but I typed this an hour and a half ago: "Leaning on Lee is going to take a pretty big leap of faith. He was absolutely torched in the second half and the Braves barely pitched him in September. Maybe they're confident he's cleaned up his pitch-tipping, but he gave up runs in two of the four appearances he made over the last two weeks of the season."

I do remember this comment, props to you

Baseball rules

are they booing stott, or the braves?

They're saying Boo-urns

I think they're saying Boo-raves!

surely it's that

I think I just heard Smelly Cat on the organ

Justice for Sanchez

May all of us be blessed with the same opportunities for redemption that baseball inherently provides

Preach

Sanchez doesnt deserve justice. Poor performance even though Harper hurt him

dylan lee didn’t give up a homer to a LHH all season lol

Love baseball for these kinds of things

Everything goes out the window in october. It’s awesome

BuT it's NoT oCtObEr

So technically it's still in the window then

I want to see some reactions from Philly of the defensive miscues followed by the homers

Philly fans in the group chat probably pulled a muscle 180’ing so hard on Bryce Harper

Painter, what a great last name for a pitcher

Mattingly giving Painter the ball in relief is giving Chevy Chase in Caddyshack: "Don't worry about this one. If you miss it, we lose."

surely painter isnt the best option for the phillies here?

He *is* the best option. And don't call me Shirley.

lol
it worked!

Painter trying a little too hard to paint here

Do we have any analytics on how much afternoon shadows actually impact the game?

is there a reason painter is in this game

The Phils pen is a travesty of a mess

Beautiful

Harris has been rough this series

bad game today for 3-3 yesterday.

Good mound visit

Props to the kid.

I’m also shocked by painter here. I mean it worked but seems like a weird ass time to bring him in.

I hope we get some good extra inning games this postseason. Such a treat to not have the nonsense ghost runner ruining it this time of year.

I walked away at the mound visit to check on laundry. I came back and there were 3 outs. For the sake of Philly, I should just…leave work, i guess.

Hey TJ, your boss just texted me and said you need to stay late.

Torn between wanting extra innings, and wanting the Phillies to score to ensure another game of this tomorrow

screw it, extra innings *and* the phillies win

Works for me!

Ugh, feel bad for Sosa

Ok, while I AM generally anti-hustle, if you're going to hustle and get hurt, that is probably the time to do it

username checks out

Sucks to sacrifice yourself physically only to have the pinch runner get out at 2nd right after

Not to sound insensitive, but what's the point of checking on him on the field when you know he's coming out either way?

i'd think you would just bring him into the dugout

Fair question

Now that time going to second was smart

Yeah, you expect the fielders to have a good sense of when to do it

Bohm should have changed course when he had to awkwardly field it. It really was more inexcusable than Harper’s play, which was just a classic misplay.

Wonder if Bohm being relatively new to 1B was a factor here- at least anecdotally it seems like 3B moving to 1B are sometimes overly aggressive at first

Bohm’s played an entire season’s worth of 1B in MLB, he’s just not that good a fielder in general

so what exactly was the point of the bunt? are they more concerned about p(scoring at least one run) vs run expectancy?

Steal a base instead guys, blah

RE Russel: yes. It's a tie game in the ninth. One run is kinda important

based on data I could find, it increases the probability of at least one run by 1.3%. That seems bad, given the drop in expected runs

edit: other data says 1% drop

You're in too deep, pull up!

Teams always get too conservative in the playoffs but even if only 1sb etc etc who cares. Rp very rarely hold guys on well. Hill can run, why attempt to move him over. Better imo running and Crawford likely puts the ball in play. Blah

Nevermind!

Womp womp

I love your imagination

Yaz*

coward Walt to take the bat out of HSK hands

*Ronnie?

We can edit??

bring back the hit and run!

I really want old-school extra innings! Glad its gone in the regular season, but love it now.

lol easy there

Chip Carey vibes

Phillies in extra innings on the road what could go wrong

This has been a fun game

Is Jonathon Bowlan alive?

Hasn’t pitched in two weeks because of a groin thing

Gotcha, thanks!

this announcer has no clue what a home run looks like

I kind of wish that kind of fake out call would be in MLB The Show, that'd be funny

he's only been announcing baseball for 30+ years, gotta give him some slack

so true, my bad

Vasgersian got my hopes up

There seems to be no correlation today on his enthusiasm level for the call and how likely the batted ball is to be a homer

Well at least we'll have real extra innings baseball…

Ooof, that was your pitch Schwarb.

Every other major change they've made to baseball in my lifetime I have felt somewhere between positively to relatively ambivalently about, but, man, I miss old school extra innings

I like the Manfred man for regular season because it adds more excitement and keeps the games going fast. Like I have work the next day, I cant be up till midnight watching a 13 inning game. The playoffs already have a ton of excitement and it's worth the time

Vasgersian was born Vasgerdsian and later it was changed. Fascinating!

The Phillies still can't hit a splitter

Woooooooooow

Hard not to feel like this is Philly's best shot, with the top of the line up due up and a thin bullpen to lean on…

Hahahahaha

AAHAHAHHAHHAHHA

That ball had way more carry than I realized

One of the most out-of-nowhere homers I can remember. How the heck did that happen?

Did they not just say he hadn't given up a HR to a righty all year

absolutely did not look like a homer off the bat

perennial mvp candidate alec bohm

It was the thermals

Postseason baseball is the best

Why did Matty V sound more excited on the Albies flyout

Guess he didn't want to make the same mistake twice

whoops, wrong thing to reply to

Is Duran hurt?

Don't think so but he pitched a lot yesterday and will likely need to pitch tomorrow

My guess is they think Painter is settling in and would rather have him keep going as long as he can.

De la Cruz has been a quiet find for the Phils this year. Him and Hill have made Dombrowski look smart

Any reason to take out Iglesias after only 9 pitches?

not a must win game for them, maybe?

Trea turner has crushed him.

Apparently because Turner has killed him, in a small sample.

Yeah I believe they said he’s 5/11 with 3 HR against him

Or is that just a hindsight 20/20 thing

I just checked Statcast Search – that's the fastest pitch a righty has ever hit for an oppo homer in that zone of the plate. Absolutely unreal swing.

Wild

Come on Painter, I want more of this drama.

andrew "3.63 BotERA" painter has got this

I realized this didn't necessarily imply he has to get the outs.

I like being in a live game chat without a ton of people, there's time to respond to people and actually read all the comments

Yeah this has been fantastic, more chat type stuff Fangraphs team!

yes! would love more of these

that auto insurance ad was horrific omg

I have my mute button on the ready for ads

How would you want to see Olson pitched to? Pitch around and accept a walk?

I feel like walking the tying run to first is to be avoided

No. Go get him. Don't give a free base

Don’t not walk the lead off hitter

Crazy!

holy smokes

Painted it!

Painter painting

insane call by the ump

Meanwhile Yordan in LF started off with a misplayed ball on the first hitter

Playoff challenge system is so dramatic. I adore it. Please no full ABS.

But please remove the strike zone overlay!

I absolutely adore the challenge system and have 0 interest in full ABS

Agreed

White Sox up 1-0 on Hunter Brown two batters in

i mean, they've got the pope, astros have no shot

Yes please

This has to be below replacement level managing. Leaving Duran in so long to give up the homer after bouncing ball 4 yesterday. And now leaving a rookie starter in for 3 inning save.

If Mattingly trusted Painter here, why not yesterday?

I go back to what I said before, I think that they feel that he’s getting into his regular game flow and is settled in.

I stand by this. It worked today, but Mattingly needs to figure out his bullpen pecking order ASAP. Not having a real answer to lefties is going to bite them eventually

I think umps should be encouraged to chirp back when the calls stand

is yellow an unofficial 4th color for atlanta?

What is Bowlan doing on the roster if you can't trust him here?

This is the Andrew Painter I pictured based on scouting reports

Who gives a better series against the Dodgers?

i'd think the braves given 2021

Not that it's the be all end all, but Dodgers went 4-2 versus the Phils and 1-5 versus the Braves this year.

Drama

The ominous Michael Harris soft single….

Astros put Yordan in LF to get Nick Allen in the infield at 3B, now Yordan has misplayed a ball and Allen has made an error in the 1st inning

Only time I want to hear turn down for what is watching Valerie and Ricky on SYTYCD

A comment for no one but that's ok

Love the catcher/pitcher combo challenge

What a performance by Painter

LMaO

A few middle middle pitches by Painter that haven't been blasted

the first-pitch middle-middle changeup to baldwin should've been destroyed

Imagine if they had used up their challenges!

How anti climatic

omg what an ending

Yeah I don't find that to be great theater tbh

i think it would get a home crowd pretty hyped, but the braves fans aren't exactly enthused

Phillies just became a trivia question answer.

3-0 Sox, still top of the first, #wildthrowoffense

ABS is sick

starting Nick Allen (not at shortstop) in an elimination game is certainly a choice

What a close, tense game, hope we get more of those- now to check in on HOU-CWS…

i'm impressed that hunter brown has done this with only 21 pitches

incredibly efficient pitches/run

I feel embarrassed for picking the Astros to win this series. They've been outclassed in every which way by a team that's truly just happy to be here. I can hardly blame Jim Crane for blowing everything up after this.

I refuse to believe the Astros are eliminated until the game is completely over. They're like Jason or Freddy.

yeah the prognosis is pretty bad, but I've seen many teams piss away a four-run lead with the whole game ahead

Do we know the possible start times for Braves Phillies game 3 tomorrow? Presumably if some of these other series end today they'll move it later in the day, but are there specific conditions for a time change?

MLB put up the whole list of combinations on one of the articles about where to watch the game.

Ah found it. Not the way I'd do it that's for sure

Just switched to the Astros game. Why are Hunter Brown's pants so dirty?

back from an hour long meeting sure hope i didnt miss any insane endings to the phillies game and terrible starts to the next game!

I'm seeing double! four Montgomeries

I am having a hard time getting over the notion that the White Sox legitimately may play in the ALCS. Absolutely crazy.

socktober

33 pitches

in retrospect, braves could be out of the playoffs if not for unlikely hero austin riley. wild to think about

Big HRs from Austin Riley, and Alec Bohm, two players their fanbases have made into pariahs. Now we need Volpe to HR

Elite take.

Brown is down

Where is Brown? There is Brown. Mr. Brown is out of town.

He just wanted to see him face the full 9, for funsies.

it's okay, at least the astros have an elite bullpen

So the Astros need 25 outs from their bullpen that stunk it up yesterday and they need to outscore the White Sox by 4 runs across those 25 outs, assuming they get out of this jam. How hard can it be?

Tell 'em, Wash.

Yikes, Roman Anthony is out for the rest of this series and likely the ALDS (in the vanishingly small likelihood the Sox go that far) with a recurrance of his mysterious hand injury…

By rule he can't play in the ALDS since he's been removed from the roster

Is it a mystery? He was out with a hand injury before and it's some kind of flare-up, right?

Well, it was a wrist injury, and then it was a tendon injury in his ring finger, and now it's a strain of "several muscles" according to Tracy, and no one seems to know how to fix it

It was a partial tear of the tendon that connects the ring finger to the wrist

At this rate, he might not have a right hand by Christmas.

final score of this game will be 36 – 22

I forgot that the white sox still have to pitch in this game

Cue: "did Burke get cold on the bench?????"

Will Yordan get his Harper moment to redeem his blunder

Burke often has lower velo early in the game.

Just realized no strike zone overlay on the broadcast!! So nice

They must have read this chat thread.

I heard "hit the dirt" and was soooo confused

Paredes is used to hitting beams and catwalks in his home ballpark

Gameday had a weird fit. It put up "in play, out(s)" then blinked a few times and changed it to a foul ball.

Anthony officially off the Red Sox roster, Curtis Mead (!) is in. Anthony will be ineligible for the ALDS should the Red Sox advance

Mead redemption would be fun.

Both Mead and Sanchez showing out today would be fun

36 minute first-inning. Looking forward to the Yankee-Red Sox game starting in the bottom of the 5th.

At least Blubaugh didn't have to wait around to never get into this game

This was not a good joke. And I'm not sure how to pronounce his name

In my head it's pronounced Blu and then the sound Orson Welles makes in that champagne commercial, not sure if I can post a Youtube link here

Blubaugh way better today so far. Pitched 96 innings in relief, horrible September, bad yesterday, and I assumed he was toast until next year.

Everyone throws so hard nowadays. Who are some of the best pitchers in 2026 that don't throw hard at all

Ranger Suarez

brent suter

Tyler Rogers, Alex Vesia, Logan Henderson to name a few

Is Blubaugh the first pitcher ever to appear in the first inning of consecutive playoff games?

Weiss went “all in” in today and Phillies look to be in an excellent position to close it out tomorrow. Mattingly has an ace for tomorrow and his best pen arm rested. Weiss has neither.

only 48 more runs until my prediction was right

Nick Allen clearly understood the assignment and…popped out immediately.

Hey all, I think we are going shut down this game thread for the day. I think a lot of people left work or are eating dinner now. This worked out pretty well, and we are going to try more things like these in the future.

Will there be something for the night games?

Not for today. We usually peak around 4PM ET then it's downhill after that. But hopefully, for other days.

but we still have 16 hours of baseball…

thank you for setting this up Sean!

Thanks Sean!