Marcelo Mayer has a promising bat and one of the highest ceilings in the minors. No. 1 on our Red Sox Top Prospects list, and no. 9 in baseball overall, the left-handed-hitting shortstop is batting in the middle of a Double-A lineup while still five months shy of his 21st birthday. Promoted to Portland from High-A Greenville in late May, the young-for-his-level infielder is slashing .249/.318/.457 with 13 home runs and a 107 wRC+ between the two stops.
His pedigree is that of a first-rounder. Taken fourth overall by Boston in 2021 out of Chula Vista, California’s Eastlake High School, he had been projected by many prognosticators to go even higher. And for good reason. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in that year’s draft recap, Mayer presented “among the best hit/power combinations in the high school class. He’s a potential perennial All-Star.”
Mayer sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent game at Portland, Maine’s Hadlock Field.
———
David Laurila: How would you describe your approach at the plate?
Marcelo Mayer: “I’m really just looking for a fastball down the middle, a good pitch to hit, and adjusting to anything else from there.” Read the rest of this entry »
With the August 1 trade deadline fast approaching, the question on every baseball fan’s mind is: Will the Los Angeles Angels trade Shohei Ohtani?
Or at least, it was the question on every fan’s mind. On Wednesday evening, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reported that the 52-49 Angels have pulled Ohtani off the trade market.
What this piece presupposes is: What if they hadn’t?
We compiled this whole thing before Verducci’s report (and the Angels’ subsequent trade for Lucas Giolito), and we’re going to run it as a thought exercise because we aren’t about to let Arte Moreno ruin our fun. That Ohtani is reportedly no longer available perhaps suggests that the real offers Perry Minasian and Co. received were underwhelming. So what would it take to pry Ohtani loose?
Othershave taken that question for a spin, and now it’s our turn. Eleven members of the FanGraphs staff agreed to act as the GMs of opposing clubs and put their best proposal forward in an effort to land the two-way star. You’ll find those offers below. Teams are listed in descending order of their FanGraphs playoff odds. Prospect-eligible players have their Future Value grades noted in parentheses; you can find full scouting reports and tool grades for prospects and recent graduates on The Board.
Probably the last thing Arte Moreno wants to do is trade Shohei Ohtani to the team next door, but if he were willing to, I’d like to think this package from the Dodgers might look acceptable.
I used the 2021 Max Scherzer/Trea Turner blockbuster as a template, though in this case the All-Star hitter and All-Star pitcher being acquired are one and the same. In that deal, the Dodgers sent the Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray (55 FV), catcher Keibert Ruiz (55 FV), starting pitcher Gerardo Carrillo (40 FV) and outfielder Donovan Casey (not ranked) — and in that case they got an extra year of control (that of Turner) for the package. Here, with the competition so heavy, I’m going to have to include more talent and concede that extra club control while hoping that I at least get the inside track on retaining Ohtani once he hits free agency.
With All-Star catcher Will Smith in place and still with two years of club control, and with Dalton Rushing at High-A and likely to crack the Top 100 Prospects list next year, I’m headlining my package with Cartaya, a 21-year-old catcher who placed 28th on the Top 100 list this spring but who admittedly is having a rough first taste of Double-A. From the team’s wealth of pitching prospects, I’m tabbing Stone, who has scuffled in his three starts for the Dodgers this year but looks like a mid-rotation starter in the making, and Frasso, who was acquired in the Mitch White trade last summer and currently boasts a 32% strikeout rate at Double-A. I’m not opposed to swapping either of these pitchers out for Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, or even Emmet Sheehan, all of whom have more major league experience but probably lower ceilings.
I’m also including Busch and Deluca. Busch is a hitter with no clear defensive position (he can spot at second base); if this deal goes through, the Angels will have the DH slot open. Deluca is a fifth outfielder and depth piece, somebody with a big league future but not an overwhelming one. – Jay Jaffe
In this league, teams are often wary of the risk associated with trading potential long-term pieces for a rental. However, much like the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Reds, the Tampa Bay Rays have plenty of prospect depth and young big leaguers to pull from. And while it sounds like Yandy Díaz will be able to avoid an IL stint for his recent groin injury, it isn’t totally clear when the team’s most productive hitter will be able to rejoin a lineup that is trying to reclaim its spot atop the AL East. That, plus a pitching staff thinned by injuries, makes it clear that reinforcements are in order and should be pursued aggressively. Thus, the Rays should propose the following deal: Taj Bradley, Kyle Manzardo, and Ian Seymour for Shohei Ohtani, Carlos Estévez, and Gustavo Campero.
Bradley is an obvious headliner for an organization that will need pitching following Ohtani’s departure. The Rays right-hander can be inserted near the top of the Angels rotation, and any deal between these two teams would most likely have to include him. From Tampa’s perspective, a rotation of Ohtani, Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, and Zach Eflin (Eflin left Wednesday’s start with left knee discomfort, though his initial MRI results were encouraging) would be the best in the American League and would provide sufficient justification for trading away a talented, controllable pitcher such as Bradley. Eflin’s injury hurts, but a playoff top three of Ohtani, McClanahan, and Glasnow is tempting. Manzardo is directly blocked in the majors by the likes of Díaz and the combination of Luke Raley and Harold Ramírez. He’s an upper minors first baseman and is expendable in the short-term. You build up prospect depth for moves like this. Lastly, Seymour is facing a 40-man roster crunch coming off Tommy John surgery but has potentially electric stuff. He’d have more of an opportunity to stretch out as a starter in an organization like the Angels.
Adding Ohtani the pitcher would extend an already good rotation, but the big premium here is at the plate. In the last two months, the Rays’ have run a 99 team wRC+, and the lineup suddenly looks closer to average than elite. Ohtani would help bolster an offense that has struggled against right-handed pitching – he boasts a 195 wRC+ and 27 home runs against right-handers, though he’s not exactly shabby against southpaws. In addition to Ohtani, Estévez would bolster a bullpen that has lost countless relievers to significant arm injuries. He’s under team control through 2024, and unlike other Rays relievers, he isn’t even a project. Lastly, Campero is a late-blooming catching prospect who could provide offensive impact at what might be the only weak position in the organization. Despite Edgar Quero being traded to the White Sox and opening up a promotion, he is still blocked by Logan O’Hoppe. – Esteban Rivera
More than just about any other team, the Orioles are in an enviable position when it comes to the Ohtani talks, able to trade what amounts to expendable, close-to-the-majors talent — and they don’t even have to touch Jackson Holliday.
This isn’t to disparage Ortiz (the 51st-best prospect in baseball), Cowser (the Orioles’ no. 6 prospect, who dominated Triple-A before his call-up), or Hall (the team’s no. 9 prospect), all of whom have what it takes to contribute at the major league level. Rather, the three are replaceable on the big league roster.
Ortiz was the best-ranked of the three prospects midseason, but he can’t consistently earn playing time on a roster that’s got Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo covering second, third, and short — Ortiz has just 34 big league plate appearances despite a 141 wRC+ in Triple-A.
Cowser is currently on the big league roster, though he’s off to a slow start with a 45 wRC+ in 42 PA. Of course, the Orioles wouldn’t trade him because of that, but his opportunities will probably dwindle when Cedric Mullins is back from the IL, and Heston Kjerstad (regarded as the better prospect and also capable of playing first base) is also knocking on the door.
Hall is the only pitcher in the proposed deal and also the biggest unknown; he’s been down in Sarasota working on regaining his velocity and just pitched for the first time at any level since June 14 in a game on Monday. But his strikeout stuff has been tantalizing when in the majors; he’s struck out more than a third of the opponents he’s faced in his 16.2 big league innings.
Ultimately, the always-straddling-the-line Angels would find themselves with three players they could have in the majors immediately or at least imminently. Ortiz could take over at second base for the struggling Luis Rengifo right away, and Cowser could take an outfield spot and a few half-days in the Ohtani-less DH spot. Even with his velocity in peak form, Hall carries significant relief risk, but he could shore up a bullpen corps that has Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Jacob Webb, and José Soriano as its only really trusted options.
And, of course, Ohtani would give a boost to an Orioles lineup that’s solid (11th in the majors in OPS) but lacks a truly terrifying bat, and bolster a middling rotation (15th in the majors in ERA) that’s currently relying on a breakout from Grayson Rodriguez as its best hope for a step forward. The O’s could easily accommodate the kind of six-man rotation that Ohtani’s been accustomed to, particularly with Rodriguez’s innings being monitored anyway. – Jon Becker
I’m really hitting the gas here because I think Texas is the place where a two-month audition would be most meaningful to a club’s chances of signing Ohtani this offseason. Take him to a Cowboys game, romance him with what Texas has to offer at the cost of a slightly longer plane ride home, and remind him about the income tax rates in the Lone Star State relative to California.
I’m okay with coughing up Carter here because it looks like Leody Taveras has actually arrived. I’m personally kind of lukewarm on Carter (more on that here), but based on the types of players the Angels tend to acquire, I bet they’re not. The internet hype around Carter makes the optics of this deal with him at the center pretty attractive for the Halos.
Ditto for Leiter and Rocker, two marquee names Arte Moreno already knows. Leiter will probably be a solid big league starter, but I don’t think the Rangers would feel burned in a serious way by moving him within the division. Rocker I had evaluated as a reliever before his recent injury, and he seems fine to give up as a sweetener for the most talented player on the planet (he was the last guy I added to this offer).
Before you puke because this is too much to give up, remember that I’m essentially getting two players here. Texas doesn’t really have room for Justin Foscue on a star-studded big league infield, so he can go. Again, Foscue’s a good player, but he and Dustin Harris would both appeal to Anaheim’s statistical sensibilities in a way I’m eager to leverage because he’s superfluous to the Rangers for as long as the trio of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Josh Jung is hitting. Aside from the rehabbing Rocker, this entire offer is composed of near-ready players who can help make Los Angeles’ rebuild go more quickly. Texas would have Earth’s hottest ticket for three months, with the hope that Shohei likes the way the wind blows through his hair in Arlington and signs up for more. – Eric Longenhagen
Would the Toronto Blue Jays be bold enough to trade one of their cornerstones — a player with two-plus years of team control remaining who was born in Canada, no less — for a rental plus a former top prospect who has thus far fallen short of his potential? Probably not, but the idea has more merit than you might think. If I were Toronto GM Ross Atkins, I might very well get Angels GM Perry Minasian on the horn and ask if he would consider dealing Shohei Ohtani and Jo Adell for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Far-fetched? Assuming Minasian picked up the phone, not necessarily. Here is why the Angels might agree to the trade:
First and foremost, it seems unlikely that the Anaheim-based club will be able to re-sign Ohtani this winter, which makes trading him a good idea. That said, while the yield from a deadline deal would provide more bang for the buck than draft-pick compensation, it’s not as though a Juan Soto-like package is in the offing. Not for a player about to become a free agent. For that reason, acquiring a 24-year-old All-Star who could immediately replace Ohtani in the middle of the lineup is safer than betting on prospects who may or make pan out. It would certainly be more palatable to the fanbase. Rather than jumpstart a rebuild, why not retool and continue to (or at least try to) contend?
Here is why Toronto might propose the trade:
The Blue Jays came into the season with high expectations, and this would be a win-now move that could propel them to the World Series. Not only would the lineup get stronger, the starting rotation would as well. Their postseason odds would go up meaningfully, and a one-two-punch of Ohtani and Kevin Gausman is something no team would want to face in October. The short-term gain is obvious.
As for the long-term, this would indeed be a risky move for the Jays. Even so, the potential upside goes beyond a short-term, flags-fly-forever World Series run. Toronto is a multi-cultural city that Ohtani could easily fall in love with over the coming months, greatly increasing the chances that he’d choose to call Ontario home for years to come. As for Vladdy Jr., his wRC+ has fallen in each of last three seasons, dropping from 166 to 132 to this year’s 121. As a first baseman, is his long-term value going to be worth what he’ll be paid in Canadian or American dollars? Adel would be the wild card in this deal. At worst, the Blue Jays would have a depth piece who is under team control for several more seasons as consolation should Ohtani sign elsewhere. At best, Adel becomes the player many once envisioned. It’s certainly possible. – David Laurila
The Phillies aren’t a favorite to land Ohtani, but after a couple of trades with the Angels at last year’s deadline that worked out well for both sides, maybe these two clubs can figure something out. After all, this is Dave Dombrowski we’re talking about. He pulled off the Miguel Cabrera trade. He pulled off the Chris Sale trade. He pulled off the Yoenis Cespedes trade – twice. Philadelphia might seem like a long shot for Ohtani, but no one is a long shot for Dombrowski.
The Phillies don’t have the big-name headliner the Angels are looking for – they aren’t selling low on Andrew Painter – but they can sweeten the deal with an extra top 100-type prospect. The Angels want two? The Phillies can give them three: Mick Abel, Griff McGarry, and Justin Crawford. That’s two starting pitchers who could join the rotation by 2024 or 2025 and a center fielder of the future. On top of that, if L.A. is nervous about a deal centered around young pitching, Philadelphia can throw in William Bergolla. He’s only 18, but the young shortstop has plate discipline and contact skills beyond his years.
The Angels could also use some big league talent, so the Phillies can entice them with Ranger Suárez and Bryson Stott. Suárez has a lower FIP than almost everyone in the Angels’ rotation (including Ohtani), and he’s under team control for two more years. Stott is another young, talented infielder to pair with Zach Neto, and he won’t reach free agency until 2029.
Finally, it’s time for the cherry on top. One of Dombrowski’s most valuable skills as an executive is convincing ownership to spend, so Philadelphia can definitely take on a bad contract. Anthony Rendon is a bit too much to ask, even for Dombrowski, but how about David Fletcher? You have to think Perry Minasian would love the chance to erase a mistake from early in his Angels’ tenure.
Altogether, Philadelphia is offering high-upside prospects, controllable big leaguers, and a bit of financial freedom. Other teams have the high-end prospects to beat this offer, but it’s the best the Phillies can do without throwing in the entire IronPigs roster, the rights to the Phanatic, and the clubhouse kitchen sink. It’s not Jackson Holliday, but it’s a whole lot better than a compensatory pick. – Leo Morgenstern
If I’m the Giants, I’m still reeling from 2021’s early playoff exit after a 107-win season, 2022’s utterly underwhelming swoon, and this past offseason’s Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa near-misses. Given recent history, the front office must be especially hungry to make a deep postseason run, and with the Judge and Correa budget largely unspent, they might also be ready to open up the checkbook for Ohtani this winter. But why wait?
To get the Angels interested, let’s start with Kyle Harrison. The left-hander breezed through the lower minors and debuted with Triple-A Sacramento this spring at the age of 21, which is more than six years younger than the average pitcher at that level. He’s experienced some growing pains this year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but it’s really the first resistance he’s encountered in his young career. The Angels are already short on arms before dealing Ohtani, so a high-ceiling, near-ready pitching prospect could be a welcome centerpiece, as much as it would pain the Giants.
It’s too bad catching isn’t a big need for the Angels. The Giants seem inclined to hang on to switch-hitting rookie catcher Patrick Bailey, but Joey Bart or Blake Sabol could have been of interest if it weren’t for Matt Thaiss and Logan O’Hoppe.
Where the Giants can address another need is in the infield. There isn’t much in the way of infield depth behind 22-year-old Zach Neto. The Giants, meanwhile, are getting career-best years (or close to it) from Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and J.D. Davis, and have all but Davis under team control through at least 2025. Casey Schmitt – a versatile defender with some pop who debuted at the age of 24 in May – fits this deal well.
Power-hitting 21-year-old first baseman/corner outfielder Victor Bericoto, who just got the call to Double-A Richmond, rounds out the deal, giving the Angels another player with pretty clear potential to make a big league impact.
Three top-25 prospects is a scary haul to give up for two months of any player, especially with Harrison involved. But offer much less and Farhan Zaidi can expect to be outbid. If they’re able to keep Ohtani in San Francisco long-term, the cost to get him in the door will be soon forgotten. – Chris Gilligan
Arizona Diamondbacks Angels Receive: SS Geraldo Perdomo, CF Druw Jones (50 FV) Diamondbacks Receive: DH/SP Shohei Ohtani
I was assigned Kim Ng of the Marlins in the Effectively Wildversion of this exercise. (It went very badly, thanks for asking.) So I called shotgun on Arizona for the reboot before the podcast went live. I figured the Diamondbacks were an ideal trade partner: They have needs at both DH and in the rotation, and their playoff fate is very much up in the air, so Ohtani could make as big a difference there as anywhere. The D-backs play in a park where Ohtani could put up truly hilarious offensive numbers, and they’re a fairly big-market team (even if they don’t always spend that way) with an up-and-coming core that could benefit from the additional shine. Plus, this would be a perfect time to cash in on Druw Jones, who’s one of the few prospects with enough star power for the Angels to sell to the public as an appropriate return. At the same time, he’s not too good to be untouchable from Arizona’s perspective. Jones is currently on the shelf with a hamstring injury, and questions are starting to pop up about whether he’ll reach the lofty ceiling that was projected for him out of the draft. Maybe he’ll straighten things out and get back on track, but the Diamondbacks could opt to move him rather than risk him losing “half the return of a blockbuster trade” value.
Then I listened to the podcast and Ginny Searle, playing Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, nailed it. The final offer: Jones, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Yu-Min Lin. I think that’s the perfect pitch, from Arizona’s perspective, and sure enough it won the whole thing. Now I not only have to land Ohtani for my beloved Snakes, I have to do it through different means.
So I’m going to start with Jones and add Geraldo Perdomo. You want pizzazz? How about one of the biggest stars in the minor leagues, the no. 2 overall pick a year ago? And on top of that, how about a 23-year-old shortstop who’s under team control through 2027, has a .389 OBP, and made the All-Star team this very year? If Ohtani is A-Rod, this is your Alfonso Soriano. Plus, it bears repeating, Druw Jones. Does that leave a gaping hole in my own infield? Yes. But if I have Ohtani I can figure it out later. – Michael Baumann
The Yankees haven’t shown nearly as much faith in Oswald Peraza as they have in Anthony Volpe, often passing over the former for veterans. Why is anyone’s guess, but Peraza would be extremely appealing to the Angels. His burgeoning 60-grade defense could slot in nicely next to Zach Neto up the middle for years to come. He’s no slouch with the bat, either: In 645 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s slashed .260/.337/.463 for a 106 wRC+, in line with his 108 mark in 118 major league PAs thus far.
High-floor, big league-ready talent? Check. Near-ready high-ceiling prospect? Jasson Domínguez fits the bill. The switch-hitting outfielder, already in Double-A at just 20 years old, has tremendous pop and speed despite some swing-and-miss to his game. If he doesn’t stick in center, it could spell trouble for his overall value. But the upside is power rarely seen at a premium up-the-middle spot, and Domínguez’s physicality just might be what it takes to unseat Mike Trout in center as the latter begins to decline defensively.
Another high-ceiling play is right-hander Chase Hampton, who we had as the Yankees’ 33rd-ranked prospect coming into this season after glimpsing a velo increase and a new cutter/slider in spring training. He’s taken his new tools and run with them, earning a promotion to Double-A after his first 47 pro innings came with a 40.5% strikeout rate in High-A.
Rounding out the deal is Clarke Schmidt. After posting a 6.00 ERA through his first 10 starts this year, the former first-rounder has refined his new cutter and come into his own; over his last 10 starts, he’s pitched to an even 3.00 ERA. While his FIP hasn’t changed much, the recent success is due to a newfound ability to limit hard contact: his barrel rate has shrunk 3.8 percentage points and his hard-hit rate has dropped 6.5. The cutter is especially improved — it’s averaging 1.2 extra inches of cut and 1.3 of drop since his 10th start.
If the Yankees make the out-of-favor Peraza the headliner, they could easily shift DJ LeMahieu over to third, where for the time being, he could approximate the youngster’s value. Ohtani, meanwhile, could slot right into Schmidt’s spot, and they could even go to a six-man rotation — as the Angels have — upon Nestor Cortes‘ return. As for Ohtani’s spot in the lineup, Giancarlo Stanton will have to spend more time in right field in order to free up the DH spot. But Big G hasn’t been a huge negative in the field; on a per-inning basis, he’s placed 341st out of 444 fielders with at least 100 innings under their belts in fielding run value. Plus, since joining the Yankees, he’s hit six points of wRC+ better when he’s been in the field. This deal — and its ripple effects — should ensure the Bombers another playoff spot. – Alex Eisert
What would it take for the Reds to make a play for Shohei Ohtani? When Effectively Wild played the Ohtani trade game last week, that was the question I tried to answer, assuming the role of Nick Krall to Ben’s Perry Minasian.
My proposal, which ultimately didn’t win out, was Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Edwin Arroyo, Brandon Williamson, and Lyon Richardson for Ohtani. Benasian turned it down, but I wanted to take another crack at making an argument for my offer.
I think this type of offer is realistically the best the Reds would do in this situation. It would be absolutely shocking to see Elly De La Cruz or Matt McLain move in a trade, so I can’t just throw one of them in to land Ohtani. Whether it’s justified or not, the Reds simply aren’t going to spend much money under the current ownership regime, so there’s no chance of Ohtani being extended. They’re also not going to trade away too much talent that they’ll have to replace later.
Encarnacion-Strand is still looking for a final defensive home, but the power is real and while ZiPS isn’t quite sold on him overall, especially as a starting third baseman, it sees him as having some .500 slugging percentage seasons in the majors. He’s also in the big leagues, and even if he turns out not to be the highest upside offensive player offered for Ohtani, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the safest bat we would see in an offer. I think this is important to the Angels; whether or not Ohtani’s gone for good, I don’t think this is a team with the stomach for a full rebuild. Williamson and Richardson fit along these lines. Neither has a super high ceiling, but both have a pretty high floor, as well as the ability to contribute quickly to a retooled Angels team.
Arroyo, on the other hand, does have a decent ceiling and was on our preseason Top 100, though his FV has slipped since then. His inclusion ensures the Angels get significant value for an Ohtani rental. The team is very short on middle infield prospects now that Zach Neto has graduated from eligibility, and there’s a long-term hole that Arroyo could fill here.
Is it enough? I’m not sure, but either way, I’m not going to try to do a bad Nick Krall impression again anytime soon. – Dan Szymborski
The Mariners will almost certainly be in the running to sign Ohtani this offseason once he hits free agency. The chants of “Come to Seattle” that rained down during the All-Star game made the fans’ hopes quite clear, and the Mariners would be remiss if they didn’t make a competitive offer for the generational talent this winter. But what about the 2023 season? The M’s have hovered around .500 for nearly the entire year, never creeping more than three games over that mark or falling more than five games below it. That has put them on the AL playoff bubble, though the strength of their pitching staff indicates they’ve underperformed a bit. Pushing all their chips in for a remote shot at a repeat postseason appearance would be a pretty big risk, though for Ohtani, it might be worth it.
The Mariners send: RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Emerson Hancock, CF Jonatan Clase, 2B Michael Arroyo.
Any trade package from the Mariners needs to start with one of their young starting pitchers. The Angels have struggled to develop impact talent on the mound and the Mariners are swimming in young pitchers with plenty of team control. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are probably off the table, so the M’s offer would be centered around one of Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. I like Woo a little better than Miller because his secondary pitches seem a little more developed, but Miller has the best graded pitch between the two of them in his fastball.
Emerson Hancock has been a little inconsistent at Double-A Arkansas this year, but he’s a nearly big league-ready starter with a deep repertoire and enough prospect shine to be a nice complement to Miller. He’d be ready to contribute to the Angels rotation as soon as September. Clase has the big athletic tools that the Angels have so often coveted in prospects and he had a phenomenal start to the season in High-A Everett, posting a 197 wRC+ in 21 games there. He’s come back down to earth after getting promoted to Double-A, though his combination of power and speed should be enticing for the Angels.
Finally, with Cole Young looking like he’s on the fast track through the Mariners system and Colt Emerson and Tai Peete getting drafted this year, it seems like Michael Arroyo is getting buried on Seattle’s middle infield depth chart. That shouldn’t affect the way the Angels value him, and he has the potential to become the second-best prospect in this deal, though he’s still a little raw around the edges. He’s currently posting a 116 wRC+ as an 18-year-old at Single-A Modesto. – Jake Mailhot
Just to get this out of the way: I really have no idea if this gimmick is funny to all of you, and I don’t care. I think it’s funny, and so does Mike Baumann. The Orioles righthander and I have known of each other since he was playing at Jacksonville University and I was covering college baseball; I’d interviewed him twice for the Ringer MLB Show, once when he was drafted in 2017 and once more after he made his big league debut in September 2021. But both those interviews were done remotely; it wasn’t until this week that we met in person.
The Orioles just came to Philadelphia for a three-game series, so I made a point to go meet the other Michael Baumann. (I scanned the BBWAA badge list and didn’t spot any other current members who share a name with an active MLB player, but it’s possible I missed someone.)
So I put the following proposition to the other guy: I’d ask him a series of (more or less randomly ordered) questions covering everything from baseball technique to music to food. When there’s a major league reliever going around using your name, you want to look him in the eye and see what he’s all about. He agreed, and what follows is our conversation, lightly edited for clarity. Read the rest of this entry »
The Dodgers are getting at least some of the old band back together with Tuesday’s reacquisition of Enrique Hernández. The 32-year-old super-utilityman returns (along with cash considerations) via trade with the Red Sox in exchange for pitchers Nick Robertson and Justin Hagenman. Hernández, who signed a one-year, $10 million pact with Boston during the offseason, is hitting a career-worst .222/.279/.320 (60 wRC+). The Red Sox are picking up roughly $2.5 million of the deal’s remaining money to improve their return, receiving multiple polished, back-of-the-40-man arms in Hagenman and Robertson.
This season is the second consecutive year of declining offensive performance for Hernández, who has been a below-average hitter for most of the last five years. The decline is consistent across a variety of statistical categories, and there are no underlying signs that might indicate a bounce back or positive regression, but Hernández is still a capable defender at second base and (most importantly in this case) in center field. A June injury to Trayce Thompson eventually begat a deal for defensive specialist Jake Marisnick, whose recent hamstring injury again left the Dodgers thin in center. James Outman, whose hit tool has had a violent regression to the mean after a hot start, has seen the lion’s share of reps in center this year, while Jason Heyward and rookie Jonny Deluca have each played there a handful of times. All three are capable center field defenders but none of them is great, and you can make a coherent argument that Hernández is the best healthy center field defender on the Dodgers 40-man right now. Read the rest of this entry »
Today the Killers take a turn to the left side of the infield. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.
As noted previously, some of these situations are more dire than others, particularly when taken in the context of the rest of a team’s roster. I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the August 1 deadline, and I’m less concerned with the solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Monday. Read the rest of this entry »
As the Orioles emerge from their long hibernation, it’s easy to see the things they’ve done well as an organization. They’re great at developing relief pitchers. They can walk through a public park and pluck a future star infielder from a tree. But starting pitching has not come as easily. The front end of the rotation lacks a pitcher like Gerrit Cole or Kevin Gausman, and they’ve had to bring in veterans like Cole Irvin and Kyle Gibson to carry some of the load. No doubt this is part of the reason they’re being linked to Shohei Ohtani, who for all the dinger sockin’ he does is still the best pitcher on the trade market at the deadline.
Members of the 2023 draft class are now on the pro side of The Board. You can see where freshly drafted and signed players stack up in their new organization’s farm system here. Graduates have also been pulled from The Board; their evaluations are now preserved on the 2023 Graduates tab. Players who exceed rookie playing time requirements between now and the end of the season will be moved from the 2023 Updated section of The Board to the Graduates section in real time, and those who graduate get a scouting update on their player page contrasting their evaluation with their performance at time of graduation. Note that the farm system rankings from prior to the graduates removal still exist here; live farm system rankings (for which the grads no longer count) exist here. These will shift and change as prospects move between now and the trade deadline.
Because the Top 100 grew and changed throughout the Prospect List cycle, readers should consider it live and up to date. I made some updates to Reds prospects (more on that in a second) and slid Diamondbacks outfielder Druw Jones, who succumbed to yet another injury between when the D-backs list published and now, but otherwise just pulled off the grads. There are only 89 players in the minors with a 50 FV grade or better right now because of the graduates being pulled off of the list. This is not unusual for this time of year; similar to the way the 50 FV cross section moved from 107 players to about 130 players during the last cycle, prospects who improve and advance will climb into that group.
Reds Update
Between now and the deadline, I’ll be reviewing the farm systems of a few key clubs likely to buy, something I’ve already done for the tippy top of the Reds system.
Lyon Richardson’s pitch grades have been altered to reflect that his changeup has become his best pitch. His innings count has been kept pretty conservative, and I’d really like to see him hold the 95–97 mph fastball he’s currently showing deeper into games before moving him into the 50 FV tier, but he looks really good. His command isn’t precise, but he has a mid-rotation starter’s mix and has been throwing hard since his return from TJ, just not while working a true starter’s innings load.
Cam Collier is struggling statistically, but the pro scouting reports from source clubs are still generally positive, and he is still very young for a full-season hitter. His swing is still pretty weird, but there’s just too much lefty power here to slide him so soon.
Noelvi Marte is not playing good defense right now. He’s hitting well enough that he’ll probably still be a quality big leaguer even if he has to move off of third base, but now that he is on the 40-man, he only has so long to find a position before he’s out of option years. Lurking on the horizon here is a scenario where he ends up with one or no options left and basically no position. It’s not his likeliest outcome, but because he’s looked pretty bad on defense for the last sixth months or so, this is now a conceivable outcome. I still think he will be a good big leaguer over time (he remains a 50 FV prospect on The Board), but were I a GM, I’d be apprehensive about making him the centerpiece of a trade return.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand moves up into the 45 FV tier as a power-hitting role player who’ll be a dangerous (but likely flawed) piece of this ascending Reds team. His Triple-A contact rate (72%) would be near the bottom of the MLB 1B position group (70%), and his chase rates (an eyebrow-raising 39%) were about 20% worse than big league average (32%) at the time he was called up. League-wide adjustment to his tendency to chase will make him streaky, but ultimately Encarnacion-Strand’s power is going to play in a big way because he’s incredibly strong, and his swing is geared to do big damage. There are warning signs here similar to what Elehuris Montero exhibited in the minors, even amid his awesome surface-level statistical performance, but CES is at a different level, physically.
Edwin Arroyo also slides from the 50 FV tier to the 45 FV tier. Again, he still projects to be a good big leaguer, just not a true everyday, omni-situational player in my eyes. He continues to have throwing issues that will likely funnel him to second base, which I suppose was already likely given the Elly/McLain combo ahead of him. He’s going to get to his power by virtue of his swing’s lift, but his bat-to-ball performance has regressed enough to reevaluate him in light of the new defensive projection and consider him more of a just-shy-of-average second baseman. Look at the kind of hit tool it takes to profile as an everyday second baseman. Arroyo’s performance has been fine, but not quite on that level.
You can see how punishing the De La Cruz, McLain, etc. graduations are to the Reds’ farm system ranking, but even if you consider that group to be untouchable, they have a ton of depth (nearly 50 ranked prospects) to leverage in trade discussions.
It was the third inning of the All-Star Game, and John Smoltz and Joe Davis were marveling at Freddie Freeman. That part’s not particularly surprising. Who among us hasn’t marveled at Freddie Freeman? The Dodger first baseman worked a full count off Sonny Gray, then resisted a tempting fastball at the letters for ball four.
As Freeman jogged to first, Smoltz shared some of the wisdom he picked up during his Hall of Fame career: “The biggest thing pitchers want to find out with all the information that’s given: Where is the guy more likely to chase? And rarely do they chase up and down. It’s usually down or up. And then you try to pitch accordingly to the strength. And where Sonny Gray’s strength is, is down. He’ll surprise you up, but he wants to get you out down.”
Whenever I hear Smoltz articulate a hypothesis about the game, I find myself torn. The man has seen an awful lot of baseball, and I don’t want to discount that experience, but he’s also made some pretty outlandish-seeming claims before. Best to be a bit skeptical and double check his math, as it were. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a J.P. France postgame quote and ballplayer clichés, the death of first overall pick Mike Ivie, and how Masataka Yoshida’s debut season stacks up to the MLB rookie years of other ex-NPB stars, answer emails (36:57) about Mike Trout’s and Shohei Ohtani’s futures, a Trout/Hunter Renfroe trade deadline scheme (with a bonus Meg movie pitch), undoing pre-pitch-clock time-saving measures, and batters catching pitches to knock pitchers out of games, plus Stat Blasts (1:19:13) about robot umps in Triple-A, the most top 100 prospects to debut for one team in a season (or a two-season span), and Immaculate Grid efficiency, followed by a Future Blast (1:47:08) from 2037.
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Facebook Group
Twitter Account
EW Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
iTunes Feed
Get Our Merch!
Jay Jaffe