After a thrilling final week of the season that saw the AL West decided on the last day and the race for a Wild Card spot come down to the wire in both leagues, the postseason is here. The field features returning powerhouses, upstart challengers, and a healthy dose of “Dancing On My Own.” And though the playoff bracket boasts three 100-plus-win clubs that could be poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 27 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). You can find our playoff odds here and the ZiPS postseason game-by-game oddshere. Happy playoffs!
American League
Wild Card Series
Blue Jays vs. Twins Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Minnesota Twins
18
Toronto Blue Jays
9
Rangers vs. Rays Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Tampa Bay Rays
21
Texas Rangers
6
Division Series
Astros vs. Blue Jays/Twins WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Houston Astros
15
Minnesota Twins
11
Toronto Blue Jays
1
Orioles vs. Rangers/Rays WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Baltimore Orioles
18
Tampa Bay Rays
7
Texas Rangers
2
League Championship Series
American League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
10
Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
7
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins
4
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Houston Astros
3
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
1
American League Championship Series
Winner
Votes
Baltimore Orioles
7
Houston Astros
7
Minnesota Twins
5
Tampa Bay Rays
5
Texas Rangers
2
Toronto Blue Jays
1
National League
Wild Card Series
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Milwaukee Brewers
19
Arizona Diamondbacks
8
Marlins vs. Phillies Wild Card Series
Winner
Votes
Philadelphia Phillies
22
Miami Marlins
5
Division Series
Dodgers vs. D-backs/Brewers WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers
23
Milwaukee Brewers
4
Braves vs. Marlins/Phillies WC Winner Division Series
Winner
Votes
Atlanta Braves
23
Philadelphia Phillies
4
League Championship Series
National League Championship Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
19
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
4
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
4
National League Championship Series
Winner
Votes
Atlanta Braves
17
Los Angeles Dodgers
4
Milwaukee Brewers
3
Philadelphia Phillies
3
World Series
World Series Matchups
Matchup
Votes
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves
6
Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves
5
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves
3
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
3
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves
1
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
1
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves
1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
1
Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies
1
Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers
1
World Series Champion
Winner
Votes
Atlanta Braves
11
Baltimore Orioles
4
Minnesota Twins
3
Los Angeles Dodgers
2
Philadelphia Phillies
2
Tampa Bay Rays
2
Houston Astros
1
Milwaukee Brewers
1
Toronto Blue Jays
1
Writer Predictions
American League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Writer
TOR/MIN WC
TEX/TBR WC
HOU/WC DS
BAL/WC DS
Alex Chamberlain
MIN
TBR
MIN
TBR
Alex Eisert
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Ariel Cohen
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Ben Clemens
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Chad Young
MIN
TBR
HOU
BAL
Chris Gilligan
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Dan Szymborski
TOR
TBR
HOU
BAL
David Laurila
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Davy Andrews
MIN
TBR
MIN
TBR
Eric Longenhagen
MIN
TBR
HOU
TBR
Esteban Rivera
MIN
TEX
HOU
TEX
Jake Mailhot
MIN
TBR
MIN
TBR
Jason Martinez
TOR
TBR
TOR
BAL
Jay Jaffe
TOR
TBR
HOU
BAL
Jeff Zimmerman
MIN
TEX
MIN
BAL
Jon Becker
MIN
TBR
MIN
BAL
Jon Tayler
MIN
TEX
HOU
BAL
Justin Mason
TOR
TEX
HOU
TEX
Kiri Oler
TOR
TBR
HOU
BAL
Kyle Kishimoto
MIN
TBR
HOU
TBR
Leo Morgenstern
TOR
TBR
HOU
TBR
Lucas Kelly
TOR
TBR
HOU
BAL
Meg Rowley
MIN
TBR
HOU
BAL
Michael Baumann
TOR
TEX
HOU
BAL
Nicklaus Gaut
TOR
TBR
HOU
BAL
Paul Sporer
MIN
TBR
MIN
TBR
Tess Taruskin
MIN
TEX
HOU
BAL
National League Wild Card and Division Series Predictions
Two years ago, the Giants won 107 games, and Gabe Kapler was voted NL Manager of the Year. Last year, the Mets won 101 games, and Buck Showalter was voted NL Manager of the Year. But both teams were bounced out of the postseason in their first playoff series nonetheless, and with both teams struggling to return to such heights thereafter, the two managers lost their jobs this past weekend after their teams asked in effect, “What have you won for me lately?” The Giants fired Kapler on Friday with the team holding a 78–81 record; the Mets (then 74–86) announced before Sunday’s finale that they were moving on from Showalter.
Kapler and Showalter were the first two managers to lose their jobs in 2023, but not the last, as the Angels decided to move on from Phil Nevin, who was in the last year of his contract, on Monday after a 73–89 finish. The Padres and Yankees haven’t officially confirmed the status of their incumbents, but Bob Melvin and Aaron Boone remain under contract through next season, with the Yankees holding an option on Boone for 2025 as well. Read the rest of this entry »
After missing out on the postseason last year, breaking a four-year streak, the Brewers are back in the playoffs this year. They’ve been the model of consistency over this past half decade; they are the only other team apart from the Astros and Dodgers to have won at least 86 games in each of the last six full seasons. But for all that regular season success, they’ve only won one postseason series during this stretch, a Division Series back in 2018. They have one of the strongest run prevention units in baseball and are hoping that will carry them deep into October.
Milwaukee’s first-round opponent, the Diamondbacks, will be making their first playoff appearance since 2017. They’re breaking out of a long rebuilding cycle a little ahead of schedule thanks to the phenomenal rookie campaign of Corbin Carroll. On paper, they’re significant underdogs when compared to the dominant arms the Brewers can bring to bear, but they’ve got enough young talent to make some noise as a surprise contender:
The playoffs start today, and we are going to cover every single game, from the Wild Card round to the World Series. But those games are played by humans, and those humans have to find a way to avoid murdering each other over the course of a very long season. Inventing goofy celebrations is a good way to inject some fun into the proceedings. This article and its National League counterpart break down how each playoff team celebrates when a player reaches base or the team notches a victory. (I’m going to skip the home run celebrations becausethey’vealreadybeencoveredverythoroughly, and because they’re sure to get plenty of camera time as October unfolds.) The point of this article is to help you enjoy the smaller celebrations that might otherwise go unnoticed.
One important note: This is necessarily an incomplete list. I spent a lot of time looking, but I wasn’t able to track down the origin of every single celebration. When you search for information about a team’s celebration, you have to wade through an ocean of articles about the night they clinched a playoff berth. The declining functionality of Twitter (now known as X) also made it harder to find relevant information by searching for old tweets (now known as florps). When I couldn’t find the truth about a celebration’s backstory, I either gave it my best guess or invented the most entertaining backstory I could think of. If you happen to know the real story behind a particular celebration, or if you’d like to share your own absurd conjectures, please post them in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mariners, the Cubs, and other teams that just missed the playoffs, discuss the firings of Giants manager Gabe Kapler and Mets manager Buck Showalter (19:21), and then (32:51) bring on FanGraphs writers Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens to assemble an ultimate playoff team by drafting components of existing playoff teams: hitting, baserunning, defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, and managing.
The Arizona Fall League begins tonight and (with Sean Dolinar’s help) I’ve assembled the scouting reports for prospects on Fall League rosters in one place over on The Board. As players are identified as Board-worthy prospects throughout the fall, or if players who are already on The Board have their scouting reports updated, there will be an indicator in the “Trend” column denoting change, so check back frequently for updates. You’ll want to reference that table a bit as I briefly preview the AFL below. Some Fall League games will be streamed on the MLB.TV app and online; you can see a schedule for that here. Here are a few key things I’ll be focused on during the next six weeks, things readers should be watching for.
The Potential Stars
This one’s fairly self-explanatory. The Fall League is pretty consistently loaded with excellent prospects, usually hitters. There are about a dozen slam-dunk Top 100 prospects in this year’s league, and many more players who over the next several weeks will make an argument to be included. Peoria and Surprise have the two strongest collections of position player prospects this year, while Salt River’s pitching staff (led by the Tigers and Braves arms) is a cut above the rest at first glance, though keep in mind that prospect-y hype does not always equal success in this league from a team win-loss standpoint. Read the rest of this entry »
The race to the playoffs provided plenty of drama over the past month. The battle for a Wild Card spot ended up coming down to the wire in both leagues, and the AL West wasn’t completely wrapped up until the final day of the season. But we’ve finally made it to the main event, where anything can happen and underdogs can topple giants. Here’s a look at the 12 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.
A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve removed the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage from the calculations. Read the rest of this entry »
Despite being second and third in record among AL clubs and sporting the top two run differentials in the Junior Circuit, the Rays and Rangers will meet in the wild card round as the fourth and fifth seeds, respectively. Tampa Bay secured the top wild card spot after losing a close division race, finishing just two games behind the first-place Orioles, the only 100-win team in the AL, and will play host to the Rangers. Their 90 wins tied them with the Astros for first place in the West, but they lost the division crown via tiebreaker under the new rules that sent Game 163 into extinction. These two squads may be a bit above the caliber of the average wild card series, but only one will be on a flight to Baltimore this weekend for the ALDS. Read the rest of this entry »
Once again, the PC on my office desk (possibly with a cat sleeping on it) has started crunching the postseason numbers. Indeed, if you’re a particularly keen observer, you may have noticed that the ZiPS Game-by-Game Postseason Odds are now available for your adoration or scorn. Yes, these are technically probabilities rather than odds, but you don’t get the name the articles, bossypants!
For those of you who are new to the ZiPS playoff projections, or who wisely don’t reserve portions of their brain for remembering Dan Szymborski stuff, the playoff model is much different than the generalized seasonal model you see utilized in the articles I publish over the course of the season. The macro-level projections used to forecast a full 162-game season are less suitable when applied to the postseason, given the more compact nature of a three-, five-, or seven-game series. When you’re looking a week into the future rather than half a year, you’re able to take a more ground-level view of the relative strength of teams. You’re able to make educated guesses as to who is starting each game, what the lineups will look like, who is healthy and who is not, and so on. The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher’s and batter’s line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team’s generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors’ worth of players takes more than a day.
For 2023, I’ve continued to refine my models to try to more accurately project playoff bullpen usage, and have also done some more work on modeling how individual pitchers will fare when being used on short rest. Read the rest of this entry »
Of all the novelties we’re going to see this postseason, this series is one of the weirdest. The Phillies and Marlins have never met in the postseason before. In fact, they’d never made the playoffs in the same season before; apart from a stretch from 2003 to ’09 when it seemed like they only ever played each other, the two franchises had never even finished above .500 in the same season before.