Hello, and welcome to the mailbag! Matt Martell is taking some well-deserved
vacation, so I’m piloting things in his stead. This week saw the hot stove flicker to life. The Mariners re-signed Josh Naylor to a five-year, $92.5 million deal, which inspired Davy Andrews to relaunch the We Tried tracker. The Orioles and the Angels got together on a surprising challenge trade, swapping Grayson Rodriguez and Taylor Ward, while the Braves brought back Raisel Iglesias on a one-year, $16 million contract, then traded utility infielders with the Astros, acquiring Mauricio Dubón in exchange for Nick Allen.

It was also a week that saw a variety of roster-related deadlines come and go. Teams had until Tuesday to protect eligible prospects from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, while Friday brought the non-tender deadline. Tuesday also saw four players accept a qualifying offer. Brandon Woodruff, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, and Shota Imanaga will return to their prior teams on one-year contracts worth $22.025 million, removing them from the free pool. As Michael Baumann noted in his piece on the subject, that breaks the previous record of three players set in 2015; 144 qualifying offers were extended to pending free agents in the first 14 years of the system, with only 14 accepted.

We’ll cover every major signing and trade in the weeks ahead, but this week’s mailbag isn’t focused on transactions. Instead, we’ll contemplate a player who underperformed in 2025, the relative volatility of relievers and starters, and a controversial Hall of Fame case. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Aaron Judge having been teammates with both Taylor Ward and Tyler Wade, a revelation about the late-season health of Elly De La Cruz, and the hidden value of multiposition players such as Mauricio Dubón, then (38:22) answer listener emails about the terms “baseball lifer” and “double-barrel action,” when bases-loaded situations are separate, how to count innings, a weird double play, how to classify switch-hitters, non-switch-hitters who should consider switch-hitting, and whether wealth can buy a good farm system.

Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Elly injury info
Link to September Elly episode
Link to AA quotes on Dubón
Link to 2025 FRV leaders
Link to Kostka thread on Grayson
Link to double play clip 1
Link to double play clip 2
Link to double play clip 3
Link to Rendon homer story
Link to Popkins origin story
Link to listener emails database
Link to Narduzzi clip
Link to Narduzzi story
Link to Secret Santa sign-up

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The Women’s Pro Baseball League held its inaugural draft on Thursday night. For many of the players who heard their names called, getting to play professional baseball is a dream they’ve carried since childhood, one they knew might never come true. Play won’t get underway until next August, but with the WPBL draft now in the history books, the dreams of 120 women are meaningfully closer to being realized.

Thursday night’s draft was the culmination of a busy few months for the new league. Since I last wrote about the WPBL in January, the league has announced key logistical information, such as the number of teams that will play during its first season, where those teams will play, and how much the teams will pay the players, and has also provided an update on the WPBL’s media and broadcast strategy. But despite all the new intel on how the league will be run, a few key components are still unknown. So before recapping the draft and the open tryout that determined the pool of draft-eligible players, let’s get up to date on what we do and don’t know about the WPBL so far.

If this is the first you’re hearing of the WPBL, here’s a quick primer. It’s a professional baseball league for women, the first of its kind since the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League (AAGPBL), which ran from 1943 to 1954. The WPBL was co-founded in October of 2024 by Justine Siegal — who is best known for founding Baseball For All, “[A] girls baseball nonprofit that builds gender equity by creating opportunities for girls to play, coach, and lead in the sport” — and Keith Stein, a businessman, lawyer, and member of the ownership group for a semiprofessional men’s baseball team in Toronto. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of my ongoing look at the candidates on the 2026 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, use the navigation tool above. An introduction to JAWS can be found here.

Barry Bonds has a reasonable claim as the greatest position player of all time. Babe Ruth played in a time before integration, and Ted Williams bridged the pre- and post-integration eras, but while both were dominant at the plate, neither was much to write home about on the base paths or in the field. Bonds’ godfather, Willie Mays, was a big plus in both of those areas, but he didn’t dominate opposing pitchers to the same extent. Bonds used his blend of speed, power, and surgical precision in the strike zone to outdo them all. He set the single-season home run record with 73 in 2001 and the all-time home run record with 762, reached base more often than any player this side of Pete Rose, and won a record seven MVP awards along the way.

Despite his claim to greatness, Bonds may have inspired more fear and loathing than any ballplayer in modern history. Fear, because opposing pitchers and managers simply refused to engage him at his peak, intentionally walking him a record 688 times — once with the bases loaded — and giving him a free pass a total of 2,558 times, also a record. Loathing, because even as a young player, he rubbed teammates and media the wrong way (and occasionally, even his manager), and approached the game with a chip on his shoulder because of the way his father, three-time All-Star Bobby Bonds, had been driven from the game due to alcoholism. The younger Bonds had his own issues off the field, as allegations of physical and verbal abuse of his domestic partners surfaced during his career. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

The hot stove has started to heat up, but it’s still pretty early in the offseason. On Tuesday, I took stock of how the early 2026 projections viewed the bottom 18 teams in baseball as they’re currently constructed. Today, I’ll take a look at the teams projected to finish with a .500 or better record in 2026. This exercise should give us a pretty good idea of which clubs would be ready to compete if the season started today, and which ones still have work to do this offseason.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these offseason rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. Right now, our Depth Charts projections are powered entirely by the 2026 Steamer projections; the 2026 ZiPS projections will be folded in later in the offseason.

First up are the rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times when I take editorial liberties in grouping teams together — but generally, the order is consistent. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the final regular season run of the power rankings. The rankings for teams 18–30 have been updated with the handful of moves that occurred around baseball since Part I was published. Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago White Sox have two of baseball’s most promising pitching prospects. Noah Schultz, a 22-year-old left-hander who was drafted 26th overall in 2022 out of an Oswego, Illinois high school is currently no. 22 on The Board with a 55 FV. Hagen Smith, himself a 22-year-old southpaw, was drafted fifth overall in 2024 out of the University of Arkansas and is no. 81 with a 50 FV. Each possesses a power arm, and both have a lot to prove in the forthcoming season — albeit for different reasons. Schultz was limited to 73 innings this year due to injury, while Smith dealt with command issues and lacks a solid third pitch.

I asked White Sox executive vice president/general manager Chris Getz about the young pitchers during last week’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas.

“For Noah, it was an inconsistent year,” Getz said of the 6-foot-10 Schultz, who struggled to the tune of a 4.68 ERA between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte. “Much of that was related to his knee — he had patellar tendonitis — and he needed be to shut down. He’s doing [physical therapy] and strengthening right now. I anticipate that once the knee is completely healed, once it is healthy and completely strong, we are going to get the version of Noah that made him a top prospect in our game. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Texas Rangers.

Batters

Finishing the season with an exactly .500 record seems a fitting fate for the 2025 Texas Rangers, a team that spent most of the year jumping into and out of the playoff race, until their demise was eventually sealed by an eight-game losing streak in September. The oldest team in baseball this year, the Rangers got a lot of production out of their core performers, but a pitching swoon in August and September, and holes at the offense-heavy positions, left the team short of its goal of getting back to the playoffs and grabbing a second World Series trophy. That 2023 championship campaign is the only season in the last nine in which Texas finished with a winning record. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben, Meg, Michael Baumann, Ben Clemens, and Chris Hanel congregate to review the results of the 2025 minor league free agent draft (11:45) and recap their 40 bold preseason predictions (19:01), following quick games of “2025 College World Series Starting Pitching Matchup or First Amendment Supreme Court Case” (2:58) and “Cedar Rapids Kernel or Character in the Star Wars Universe” (7:42).

Audio intro: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to free agent draft episode
Link to draft history
Link to preseason predictions episode
Link to predictions game history
Link to EWStats site
Link to EWStats on Bluesky
Link to listener leaders
Link to Chris’s website
Link to Secret Santa sign-up

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I don’t want to overstate the value of raw financial power in baseball. The Mets spent more than $320 million on player salaries, not counting luxury tax penalties, and they finished four games over .500. Money can’t buy happiness, or even a spot in the playoffs.

It can, however, buy you a closer and a major upgrade to your bench. So the Braves demonstrated Wednesday, when they re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias for one year at $16 million, and swapped utility infielders with the Astros, sending Nick Allen west in a 1-for-1 trade for Mauricio Dubón.

The Braves went into last season as one of the favorites to win the NL pennant only to tumble to fourth place behind the Marlins (the Marlins!) after befalling a series of farces and calamities that recall A Serious Man. Jurickson Profar got popped for PEDs, Spencer Strider and Ozzie Albies lost their juice, half the roster got hurt, it was a huge mess. Read the rest of this entry »