Starting rotations have five slots.

Yes, every once in a while a team will pretend to have four or six slots, but that team must inevitably confront the truth: Starting rotations have five slots. It’s a matter of policy, preference, and just plain practicality, Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said last year in an interview with Lookout Landing.

“The unfortunate thing about the roster rules is you only get 26 spots, and you only get 13 pitchers. And when you add a sixth starter, you take away a reliever. When you add a sixth starter, sometimes your starters pitch every six days, sometimes they pitch every eight or nine days. Starting pitchers are fussy. They don’t like that. They like to stay on a regular schedule. They like to know when they’re pitching.”

I’ve been thinking about the fixed-nature of rotations lately after reading this discussion between Eno Saris and Jen McCaffrey in The Athletic. They compare the rotations in Detroit and Boston by assigning each pitcher a label (one, two, three, four, five), sizing them up horizontally and vertically, and confronting the trade-offs in quality and depth. This reflects how many of us compare rotations in the abstract, and I wanted to see if this could be applied more broadly. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs authors Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens (accompanied by podcast scorekeeper Chris Hanel) play “College Baseball Player or Driver in a Formula 1 Support Series” (5:07), banter about an auction for Team Italy’s WBC espresso machine (10:09), explain the fourth annual preseason predictions game (19:20), and then make 10 bold predictions apiece (22:20) about baseball in 2026, to be voted on by listeners.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)”
Audio outro: Kite Person, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to vote on predictions
Link to preseason predictions game wiki
Link to Anton’s mash-up song
Link to original song
Link to EW Episode 2383
Link to “College Baseball Player or” games
Link to Baumann on Herta
Link to espresso machine auction
Link to other Team Italy items
Link to Ohtani Cy Young story
Link to Ohtani email episode
Link to Sam on Gsellman
Link to For All Mankind
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Artemis II story
Link to Perry/moon landing story
Link to Neckzilla
Link to Schulte’s SABR bio
Link to Manfred/Harper/DeRosa story
Link to AO3
Link to new managers story
Link to team WAR projections
Link to 2024 2B innings leaders
Link to active postseason droughts
Link to 2025 Royals WAR leaders
Link to Garcia breakout comment
Link to old-SP leaders
Link to Quinn’s SABR bio
Link to Verlander outing article
Link to young, homegrown SP leaders
Link to Pirates SP article
Link to Baumann on Mlodzinski
Link to MLB partnership announcement
Link to MLB partnership announcement info 1
Link to MLB partnership announcement info 2
Link to MLB partnership announcement info 3
Link to vote on predictions (do it!)

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The introduction to last year’s center field rankings highlighted a changing of the guard at the position, initiated by Mike Trout’s departure from the top of the heap in 2024 and continuing with Aaron Judge vacating the no. 2 spot in the rankings in 2025. This year, Trout might be headed back to center field (👀👀👀), but this isn’t a return of the old guard. He no longer sits atop the hierarchy (spoiler alert: the Angels check in at 23rd); the transition is complete.

But the new guard isn’t just new; they’re also young. Which, duh. That’s how lifecycles work. Something gets old or ineffective, and we replace it with a newer, younger model. Perhaps this changing of the guard is enough to explain the simultaneous youth movement happening at the position. Because this is a very young crop of center fielders. This year, the average age of the player at the top of each team’s depth chart is 26.9. Is this data point merely a momentary dip before the average age of center fielders begins its gradual ascent once more? Or is it part of a larger trend? Has center field become a young person’s position? Is the middle pasture strictly playable by folks speedmaxxing and rangemogging their opponents? Will all center fielders soon be wearing JNCOs in their tunnel fits and dressing their Labubus in Gucci?

As it turns out, yes. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been bouncing around spring training camps for a little more than a week now, which makes this a good time to drop a few notes. I’ve mostly kept to the backfields, but I’ve taken in a couple big league games as well, and these observations draw from both sources. I’ve got a mix of updates on top prospects, some off-the-radar names who have played well, and a few thoughts on a notable recent graduate.

Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers
I caught Sasaki on Tuesday night, where he looked similar to how he did last season. His splitter is absolutely devastating, perhaps the best split I’ve ever seen live, but it’s also the only reliable pitch for him right now, and even that didn’t generate the same kind of chase his second time through the order. Meanwhile, he still doesn’t command his fastball well, and it got hit hard when he left it out over the plate. Sasaki looked great at times in a relief role last year, and with his arm strength and split, he could be a monster closer. I wouldn’t be shocked if he winds up in relief sooner rather than later.

Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, Giants
Whisenhunt was a late cut from our Top 100 list, as we ultimately determined that his lack of a breaking ball was leading to deep counts, predictable pitch selections, and ultimately too much traffic on the bases for him to project as a mid-rotation starter despite a monster changeup. His quest for a better third pitch led him to a cutter this spring, a low-90s offering that to my eye flashed average, but lacked the late bite or tight velo separation from the fastball to change the calculus for him much. The rest of the package looked as it has for a while. He had his good velo back, up to 96, and generated swings and misses up in the zone. His change, as ever, looked excellent. Read the rest of this entry »

The World Baseball Classic likely provided many fans their first glimpse of Nolan McLean. The 24-year-old right-hander debuted last August and made just eight big league starts. If you missed his work against Italy on March 10 – if you only caught the last six innings, or if you only saw his line at the end of the night – you might have wondered how McLean ended up starting the championship game for the United States against Venezuela. You might have wondered how this prospect with hardly any major league experience, who earned a 9.00 ERA along with the team’s only loss in the tournament to that point, could have possibly earned that honor over the other All-Stars on the roster.

McLean’s line against Italy wasn’t exactly inspiring. He allowed three earned runs across three innings. He struck out four, but he also walked two batters, hit another, and allowed two home runs. Most of the batted balls he gave up were hard hit. And after that ignominy, he was set to face off against Ronald Acuña Jr. in the championship game? The same Ronald Acuña Jr. who did this to the famous McLean sweeper back in August?

Even if that was your frame of reference coming into Tuesday night, it didn’t take long for the pieces to fall into place. As is so often the case with nasty young flamethrowers, McLean looked absolutely unhittable, even when he was getting hit. Eric Longenhagen has described McLean’s pitches as moving “violently,” and I think that’s right on the money. The slider doesn’t look like it’s sweeping so much as it looks like it’s changing its mind halfway to the plate. It’s an optical illusion due to the camera angle behind the pitcher, but it honestly looks like it’s shifting into top gear once it makes its left turn. The sinker looks like it’s teleporting to the catcher’s glove. The curveball looks like it’s suddenly realized that it has left its curling iron plugged in and needs to get back home as soon as possible. (Even a curveball needs to feel pretty every sometimes.) Read the rest of this entry »

There was a fair amount of movement on this year’s left field list. Most notably, the New York Mets have jumped from ninth to first, and the Boston Red Sox from 13th to second, while the Miami Marlins are now 13th after being second from the bottom a year ago. Those are some of the climbers. Most notable among the teams going in the other direction are the Cleveland Guardians, who plummeted from third to 20th. Position switches play a role in many (but not all) of these season-to-season changes. Moreover, a recent switch actually resulted in a meaningful change to a team’s 2026 ranking. Where they’d have slotted a week ago is different from where they ultimately ended up.

Trades and injuries also move the needle on season-to-season rankings, as does age. The presence of burgeoning young stars like Roman Anthony and Jackson Chourio often (but not always, as you’ll see below) influence up arrows, while long-in-the-tooth veterans still holding onto their positions can result in down arrows. Ditto breakouts and down seasons, regardless of players’ ages. One year affects the next, although it bears noting that good projection systems are savvy enough not to overreact. Projections aren’t perfect, of course. Players outperform and underperform them every season, which will almost assuredly be the case again this year. Read the rest of this entry »

About a month ago, the Padres went shopping over the long weekend and landed a bunch of old guys who seemed pretty washed. I was glib in my appraisal of those moves, suggesting that they’d only work out if A.J. Preller had a time machine.

The Padres live in a perpetual state of roster turnover, which occasionally leaves gaps. That’s how you end up with no. 4 starter Germán Márquez, or platoon first baseman Nick Castellanos. But those two are on major league deals; they were always likely to make the roster in some capacity, regardless of how you feel about those late-2010s stalwarts now.

But nothing so concrete was promised to Walker Buehler, who came to camp in Peoria on a minor league deal with a non-roster invite. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been doing a lot of looking at depth charts this week. All of us FanGraphs writers have – these positional power rankings don’t write themselves. When you look at the majors through this lens, you’ll naturally do a lot of thinking about floor and ceiling. The Yankees are playing who at third base? The Brewers are getting how much WAR by avoiding weak spots? The Red Sox have that many outfielders?

I’ve written some team overviews this winter. In them, I make the following claim: “Building a team that outperforms opponents on the strength of its 15th to 26th best players being far superior to their counterparts on other clubs might help in the dog days of August, when everyone’s playing their depth guys and cobbling together a rotation, but that won’t fly in October.” The converse of that claim – that stars matter disproportionately in October – is part and parcel of this depth argument. But is that true?

Some might say that the best time to answer this question is when the playoffs are just around the corner. I’d counter that those people haven’t just spent seven hours staring at a pile of acceptable-but-not-overwhelming third base and starting pitcher options and trying to write something about each one. So in the spirit of doing anything other than looking at power rankings, I decided to test out this assumption. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs contributor Kiri Oler wrap up the World Baseball Classic, covering Venezuela’s triumph, Team USA’s slump and vibes, and the overall success of the tournament, plus thoughts on Mark DeRosa’s managing and Team USA’s future, the semifinal matchups, the bad calls against the Dominican Republic, the challenge system and pitches that are “too close to take,” the WBC vs. the World Series, when the next WBC should be, and much more.

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme 2”

Link to Defector on Venezuela
Link to Harper on the outcome
Link to Posnanski on Team USA
Link to Manfred on WBC timing
Link to data on US-DR game
Link to data on Perdomo take
Link to Ben on fouling off pitches
Link to Harper on the Olympics
Link to McLean start story
Link to top SP projections
Link to USA anthem answers
Link to DeRosa on SEAL speaker
Link to Fox Rogers mix-up
Link to Julio’s WBC quote
Link to Judge’s WBC quote
Link to Hernández’s WBC quote
Link to Jeter on the WBC
Link to DeRosa/López relievers story
Link to next WBC timing
Link to Ben on more WBCs
Link to story on DeRosa’s future
Link to Charbonnet play
Link to Ben on “Strategy”

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