Last summer, an article titled Mark Gubicza Tackles a Challenging Career Quiz ran here at FanGraphs. In it, the Los Angeles Angels broadcaster did his best to answer matchup-specific questions from his playing days —- he pitched in the big leagues from 1984-1996 — such as which batter he allowed the most hits to, and who took him deep the most times. Along with taking a stab at the answers, Gubicza shared entertaining anecdotes about some of the hitters that were mentioned.

He isn’t the only pitcher-turned-broadcaster I challenged with (a version of) the quiz. Later in the season, I sat down with David Cone who, much like his 1980s-1990s contemporary, had fun stories to share.

I first asked the New York Yankees broadcast analyst which batter he faced the most times. Cone failed to come up with the correct answer, first guessing Will Clark (76 plate appearances), and then Juan Gonzalez (57), to who he recalled surrendering several gophers.

The answer is Roberto Alomar, against whom he matched up 93 times. What does he remember about facing the Hall of Fame second baseman?

“The thing that stands out — and he was a teammate of mine, too — is that Robbie was one of the best at picking up tipped pitches,” Cone told me. “Maybe a pitcher was doing something with his glove, and you kind of knew that Robbie would see that. But a lot of times he was using it as a bluff. Alex Cora does it to this day. You want the pitcher to think you have something on him, which gets into his head. It’s psychological warfare, and Robbie was the best at that.”

The batter with the most hits against him? Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the Saturday before the Super Bowl, which means it’s the last Saturday before the unofficial start of baseball season! Well, unless you subscribe to Davy Andrews’ philosophy that the baseball season begins when the first grainy cellphone footage of pitchers at their team’s spring training facility hits social media.

This has been an eventful week for the Tigers, who signed Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million contract on Wednesday night and then on Thursday were ordered by an arbitrator to pay two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a $32 million salary for the 2026 season, his final year under club control. That’s a lot of money for Detroit to dole out, but for that price, the Tigers have perhaps the best 1-2 rotation combo in the American League. For one year, I’d say that’s more than worth it. Michael Baumann broke down all the implications of the Skubal decision on Thursday afternoon.

That’s the last we’ll be talking about Skubal and Valdez today. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about the all-time non-Hall of Famers teams, minor league payrolls, and which players we’d want to see pull a Philip Rivers. Before we do, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the new, ESPN-ified process for signing up for MLB.TV, Stat Blast (12:28) about the long-sought, newfound pitching prowess of the WBC’s Team USA superteam, and then (34:31) preview the 2026 San Francisco Giants with The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee, and the 2026 Kansas City Royals (1:20:20) with MLB.com’s Anne Rogers.

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 2: Kite Person, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Labuza Bluesky post
Link to resulting Reddit thread
Link to Labuza web post
Link to Ben on the WBC
Link to team payrolls
Link to Giants offseason tracker
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Link to Grant on the Giants offseason
Link to Grant’s records account
Link to Grant on the “Posey Rule”
Link to last year’s Giants preview
Link to Bonds curses article
Link to Flores call article
Link to Bogaerts call article
Link to Grant’s author archive
Link to Omnibus podcast
Link to Royals offseason tracker
Link to Royals depth chart
Link to Vinnie on EW
Link to Anne on outfield fences
Link to team OF WAR
Link to Anne on Garcia’s extension
Link to Anne on Quatraro’s extension
Link to Anne on hitting coach changes
Link to Chiefs stadium move
Link to Royals move article
Link to Anne on Royals TV distribution

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After a week off owing to a lack of action around the league, we’re back with a fresh Matrix Reloaded, and this past week didn’t disappoint. We saw what will probably be the last nine-figure contract of the offseason, as well as a fun three-team trade. As always, the full Offseason Matrices document with summary statistics, remaining free agents, and much more can be found here.

Significant Signings

Tigers Sign Framber Valdez for Three Years, $115 Million (Includes Deferrals)

• Dan Szymborski’s Write-Up of the Deal
• Updated Roster Projection
• Updated Payroll Projection

Effect on the Tigers

As if one top-shelf lefty wasn’t enough for opposing bats to deal with, the Tigers now boast two of the game’s best southpaws, with Valdez slotting behind the all-world Tarik Skubal in the Tigers’ rotation. While it crossed my mind (and those of many others) that adding another lefty with a large salary might lead to a Skubal trade, that reportedly won’t be the case. With Skubal winning his arbitration case and set to earn $32 million this year, he and Valdez will combine for $70 million in AAV, depending on how Framber’s deferrals shake out. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball is in the air. Grainy cellphone footage has started to leak out. The excitement for the World Baseball Classic is peaking. The last time we ran these power rankings, the offseason had just begun and teams were still making plans for how they were going to improve their rosters during the winter. This run of the rankings provides a good barometer for which teams took big steps forward with their splashy signings and big trades, and which ones have been left in the dust. Today I’ll cover the teams projected to finish under .500 in 2026, with those forecast for a .500 or better record to follow on Monday.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. For these pre-spring training rankings, I’ve pulled the Depth Charts projections — now powered by both the 2026 Steamer and 2026 ZiPS projections — and calculated an implied Elo ranking for each team. First up are the rankings for teams 18-30, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers, with comments on each club. The delta column in the table below shows the change in ranking from the last offseason run of the power rankings in November.

…

It’s been a surprisingly quiet offseason for the Padres. They re-signed Michael King — a near necessity after seeing Dylan Cease depart in free agency and losing Yu Darvish for the season to elbow surgery — and Joe Musgrove should be healthy after missing all of 2025 with his own elbow surgery. But even with those two starters back in the fold, the rotation looks frighteningly shallow. You could probably say that about the entire roster, though. Years of win-now trades have depleted the farm system, and the upper minors look pretty devoid of meaningful depth. Maybe that won’t be a problem if everyone stays healthy, but the grind of the regular season means San Diego will inevitably have to dip into that depth at some point.

If the Rangers were going to squeeze every last ounce from this contention window that brought them a championship back in 2023, they needed to make some pretty dramatic moves this offseason. Trading Marcus Semien for Brandon Nimmo? Check. Sending a host of prospects to the Nationals for MacKenzie Gore? Check. Will it be enough to challenge the Mariners and Astros for the AL West crown? The projections aren’t convinced. Adding Gore to the starting rotation shifts the weight of expectations off of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker’s shoulders, but the pitching staff still looks weaker than the unit that led the majors in run prevention last year. On the offensive side of things, if you squint, you can see a healthy season from Corey Seager, a big step forward from Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, and bounce-back campaigns from Joc Pederson and Jake Burger all powering an improved lineup. But that’s a lot of things that need to go right for Texas to hit its 90th-percentile win projection.

The Twins are in the midst of a significant transition at the organizational level. Last week, the team announced that it had “mutually agreed to part ways” with the president of baseball and business operations Derek Falvey. He had been at the helm since 2016, and combined with the huge teardown last summer, his departure represents a huge shift in direction for the franchise. Most of the moves the Twins have made this offseason have been on the fringes: They signed Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers to short-term deals and have made a handful of small trades to clear space on their 40-man roster. And yet, they still have a strong core of players — including Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Byron Buxton — and a trio of young position players — Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Emmanuel Rodriguez — who could make an impact this year. The projections have them a hair below .500 right now, but it feels like that can swing dramatically depending on if they stick with the guys they have now or decide to continue selling off the talent they have left this summer.

The Reds blasted just 167 home runs last year, 10th fewest in the majors and a surprisingly low total for a team that calls Great American Ballpark home. Reuniting with Eugenio Suárez and his powerful bat should help in that regard. The rest of the lineup still has plenty of question marks. Will Elly De La Cruz bounce back after playing through a quad injury last summer? Can any of Spencer Steer, Matt McLain, or Noelvi Marte emerge as stars? Fortunately, the pitching staff looks like it will continue to be a strength. Led by Hunter Greene, the starting rotation should carry Cincinnati to the fringe of the NL Wild Card race. It worked out for the Reds last year, maybe lightning will strike twice.

The A’s continued to fortify the foundations of their roster by handing out a pair of seven-year contract extensions to Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson this offseason. Along with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, and Rookie of the Year winner Nick Kurtz, those five players are signed or under team control through at least 2029. That means this core will still be with the team for its expected move to Las Vegas in a few years. Adding to the excitement is 19-year-old top prospect Leo De Vries, the prize from last summer’s Mason Miller trade who is developing quickly. Yet, for all that thump on offense, the less that’s said about the pitching staff, the better. That puts the A’s in an awkward position, where their lineup is plenty good enough to contend but their pitchers are lagging far behind. There are some promising young arms coming up through the organization, but they are still a few years away. In the meantime, the hurlers at the major league level will struggle to survive in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of West Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

The Rays snuck their way into three separate three-team deals this offseason, a near perfect encapsulation of their incremental approach to roster building. And with every other team in the AL East looking like a powerhouse, this year seems like a perfect moment for Tampa Bay to reset the roster and start building for its next contention window. Out are Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Shane Baz. In are Gavin Lux — probably a temporary stopgap at second base — and a collection of prospects to restock the farm system. Thankfully, Junior Caminero looks like a star to build around, and the pitching staff looks solid with the hopefully healthy return of Shane McClanahan.

Even if the rest of their offseason was quiet, it has to be seen as a success for the Guardians after they signed José Ramírez to a seven-year contract extension that should keep him in Cleveland through the end of his career. Locking up a future Hall of Famer to a team-friendly deal is something to be celebrated, especially since Ramírez has a pretty good shot at becoming the franchise’s best player of the last 100 years. But if you did want to quibble with the rest of the Guardians’ lack of activity this offseason, you could point to the small payroll savings they negotiated via Ramírez’s deal and the lack of reinvestment in the roster. Maybe those funds will trickle down to the roster in the near future, but the current group is pretty flawed. The Guardians were pretty lucky to win the AL Central last year, and the projections see them as the fourth-best team in that division heading into this season.

The Marlins did well to trade away from a position of strength — their starting rotation — to hopefully acquire an impact bat in Owen Caissie and restock their farm system with a gaggle of prospects. Eury Pérez took a big step forward last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery, and top pitching prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling should get an opportunity to debut this year. These are small steps toward building a contender in Miami, but it feels like there’s some forward momentum here.

Chaim Bloom started tearing down the Cardinals as soon as he was installed as their president of baseball operations this offseason. He found trade partners for Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray, removing the largest contracts on the team’s books, and also dealt Willson Contreras and Brendan Donovan for a bunch of prospects and draft picks. It’s a promising start to the Cardinals’ rebuild, and I’d expect more moves this summer. Meanwhile, top prospect JJ Wetherholt should have an opportunity to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should give fans a glimpse of the future while the front office sorts out how to build a contender around him.

You can’t fault the Angels for attempting to raise their ceiling a little bit. They brought in five pitchers this offseason — Grayson Rodriguez, Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano, Kirby Yates, and Drew Pomeranz — who have each been fantastic at some point in the past, but have also dealt with significant injuries that have sapped their effectiveness. It’s a fine gamble to make, with the hope that at least one or two of them will actually make an impact this year. They also re-signed third baseman Yoán Moncada and acquired outfielder Josh Lowe, who will replace Taylor Ward in the outfield after they sent him to Baltimore in the Rodriguez deal. Will it be enough to lift the Halos out of their doldrums? No, probably not, but at least they’re trying something a little different.

New president of baseball operations Paul Toboni got right to work rebuilding the Nationals this winter. He dealt away MacKenzie Gore in the offseason’s biggest trade and made a savvy move to get catcher Harry Ford from the Mariners for lefty reliever Jose A. Ferrer. What these moves indicate is that Washington is about to embark on another rebuilding cycle after the last one petered out under former GM Mike Rizzo. James Wood is young enough, and under team control for long enough, that he should still be considered a big part of the team’s future. The same might not be true for CJ Abrams, though with three years left of control, the Nats shouldn’t be in a hurry to move on from their shortstop.

The White Sox had a pretty interesting offseason. Of course, the biggest headline was the signing of Munetaka Murakami to a two-year deal. It’s a huge risk, but it’s an exciting move that could pay off handsomely if Murakami adjusts to MLB pitching quickly. Chicago also moved on from Luis Robert Jr. and used some of the payroll savings to take Jordan Hicks’s contract off Boston’s hands in order to get an interesting pitching prospect in David Sandlin. With Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel already making an impact in the majors, and Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith close to debuting, the shape of an interesting team is starting to emerge on the South Side.

Unlike some of the other front office hires this offseason, Paul DePodesta has taken a pretty quiet approach to reshaping the roster. The moves he’s made have all been focused on improving the margins of the roster. The Rockies have signed Willi Castro and Michael Lorenzen and traded for Jake McCarthy and Edouard Julien. The four newcomers provide some much-needed depth, but none of them really raises the ceiling of the ball club. I guess we’ll have to wait for this summer to see if there are any impactful trades in the offing.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about MLB player chatbots, an Addison Barger giveaway, Tarik Skubal’s big arbitration win, the Tigers signing Framber Valdez, and a rough week for sports media, then (36:29) begin the 14th annual EW season preview series by discussing the 2026 Houston Astros with The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and the 2026 Arizona Diamondbacks (1:25:35) with The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, followed (1:54:53) by a postscript.

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Link to chatbots story
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Link to Passan on Skubal
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Link to Rosenthal on the Tigers
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Link to The Atlantic on WaPo
Link to Silver on WaPo
Link to MLB.com layoffs
Link to Grant post
Link to team payrolls
Link to Astros offseason tracker
Link to Astros depth chart
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to Dan S. on team injuries
Link to Chandler on Correa
Link to Chandler on Imai
Link to Chandler on the infield
Link to Chandler on Espada/Brown
Link to Trueblood on Peña
Link to Chandler’s author archive
Link to Crush City Territory
Link to Diamondbacks offseason tracker
Link to Diamondbacks depth chart
Link to team RP WAR
Link to team RP WPA
Link to ballpark funding deal info
Link to more funding deal info
Link to funding deal opinion piece
Link to renovations preview
Link to Nick on the Alexander trade
Link to FG post on Santana
Link to Nick’s author archive
Link to Boehly/Epstein article
Link to ESPN’s Clase report
Link to Ben on Clase
Link to EW episode on Clase
Link to SABR awards voting
Link to Wood/Lolich IP leaderboard
Link to Lolich obit

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Seldom, if ever, has the baseball world waited on tenterhooks to hear the result of a salary arbitration case, but most arbitration-eligible players are not Tarik Skubal. On this point, the arbitrator seems to have agreed, granting the Tigers left-hander a record $32 million salary for his final year of team control.

Arbitration cases themselves are usually back-page news. The question is not whether a player will return to his previous team, but how much he’ll be paid. Only people who work in baseball and unrecoverable RosterResource addicts care about such things, especially because the club’s offer and the player’s request usually only differ by a small amount. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Lucas Elissalt is an under-the-radar prospect in one of the game’s top farm systems. A 21-year-old right-hander whom the Detroit Tigers tabbed in the 13th round of the 2024 draft out of Chipola College, Elissalt is coming off of a first full professional season in which he put up a 2.51 ERA and 3.23 FIP over 89 2/3 innings split between Low-A Lakeland and High-A West Michigan. Moreover, his 26.9% strikeout rate was the highest among Detroit farmhands who tossed 80 or more frames.

Elissalt’s fastball wouldn’t be described as high octane. The 6-foot-4, 190-pound hurler’s heater sat 90-93 mph last year, occasionally ticking up to 94 (but also down to 89). Adding good weight to his lanky frame — “maybe 15 or 20 pounds” — could contribute to increased velocity, arguably the key to his developing into a major league starter.

Regardless of any velo gains that might be forthcoming, the ABS system could work in his favor. Elissalt’s 9.4% walk rate wasn’t exactly Maddux-esque, but command nonetheless profiles as one of his strengths going forward. At a time when some organizations are reassessing their views of power versus pitchability, the young righty may be ascending the minor league ladder at an opportune moment. What Elissalt lacks in gas, he makes up for with guile. Read the rest of this entry »