Bryce Harper Talks Hitting

Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Bryce Harper is Cooperstown bound, and he’ll get there having embraced a relatively straightforward approach. Aggressively selective and with a swing built to do damage, the future Hall of Famer isn’t big on hitting analytics or new-school methods. More than anything, he trusts his raw ability — which he has in great abundance — and basically goes out to bash. It’s hard to argue with his success. Now in his 15th big league season, and eighth with the Philadelphia Phillies, the two-time NL MVP has 373 home runs to go with a .280/.386/.519 slash line and a 141 wRC+ for his career. Moreover, the 33-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. At the quarter mark of the current campaign, he has 10 round-trippers and a 146 wRC+.

Harper sat down to talk hitting at Fenway Park earlier this week.

———

David Laurila: You told me that you’re more so see-ball-hit-ball than a guy who puts a lot of thought into his craft. Can you elaborate on that?

Bryce Harper: “I take my routine into the cage and kind of let that play out. There are days in the cage where you’re going to feel good, and days in the cage where you’re not necessarily going to feel good. I just need to stick with my routine every day, the same routine, understanding what works for me. That’s kind of how I’ve always been. I’ve got little drills that I like to do, which keep me through the ball and in the same path. But video-wise, pitcher tendencies — all that kind of stuff — I mostly throw out the door. I don’t do too much of that.”

Laurila: That said, have you changed at all from when you first broke into pro ball? Stance, set-up, bat path, etc.

Harper: “I’ve had to evolve. Guys are throwing harder. When I came up in 2012, one of the harder fastballs, Jonny Venters’, was like 98 [mph]. [Francisco Rodríguez] threw pretty hard. But now everybody is 95 to 100, up to 102. Each day you’re facing guys who are throwing really hard, from starters to bullpen. So, I’ve had to make sure I get to the baseball in a certain way, staying on plane. High heaters. Making sure that I’m on plane to get to baseballs thrown at a high level.”

Laurila: You need to do that without cheating on fastballs, otherwise you’re going to get beat by a secondary… Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2479: Batters Up!

EWFI
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether Ben cursed Shohei Ohtani’s bat by predicting that Ohtani would win the Cy Young award but not the MVP award, whether Bobby Witt Jr. could win his first MVP award this season, the defensive transformation of Luis Arraez, and more, then (33:16) further interrogate what homoerotic celebrations say about baseball culture, discuss the latest ABS challenge mishaps, answer listener emails (54:30) about an ABS double-or-nothing idea, trading challenges for runs, purchasing challenges midgame, an upside of umpire rotation, boosting offense with double-barreled batters, and a baseball equivalent to the Kelce brothers, plus Stat Blasts (1:28:21) about players with the most inning-ending at-bats in a game, swing rates in debut plate appearances, grand-slam merchants, teams with many MVP vote-getters, and picked-off pinch runners.

Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to preseason predictions episode
Link to Ohtani slump story 1
Link to Ohtani slump story 2
Link to Ohtani slump story 3
Link to Ohtani slump story 4
Link to Ohtani slump story 5
Link to FG WAR leaders
Link to B-Ref WAR leaders
Link to FG post on Arraez
Link to MLB.com on Arraez
Link to FRV leaders
Link to Outsports post 1
Link to Outsports post 2
Link to Outsports post 3
Link to homosociality wiki
Link to Ross memoir
Link to Valentine/Baty incident
Link to Torres challenge denials
Link to Heim play
Link to Ben on accidental challenges
Link to Jake on accidental challenges
Link to Gausman quote
Link to batter challenge leaders
Link to Rumsfeld quote wiki
Link to catcher challenge leaders
Link to team challenge leaders
Link to Clemens on FA $/WAR
Link to Ortiz ump injury
Link to double-barreled BP article 1
Link to double-barreled BP article 2
Link to HUAL segment
Link to ex-athlete pods article 1
Link to ex-athlete pods article 2
Link to Tkachuks pod
Link to Harrisburg vs. Erie game
Link to 1977 Jays-Yanks game
Link to five-inning-ending players
Link to 2003 NL MVP voting
Link to teams with 8+ MVP vote-getters
Link to SABR on WAR and awards
Link to Baumann on WAR and awards
Link to Sam on downballot MVP votes
Link to debut-PA swing rates data
Link to innings 1-3 swing rate
Link to innings 4+ swing rate
Link to grand slams data
Link to listener emails database
Link to highest PR pickoff rates data
Link to Haggerty pickoff game
Link to SABR on PR specialists
Link to Wright on PR specialists 1
Link to Wright on PR specialists 2
Link to Langs Bell fun fact

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RosterResource Chat – 5/14/26

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I’m Declaring Victory on Xavier Edwards and Liam Hicks

Rhona Wise and Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Geraldo Perdomo makes me happy. He’s a really good player with an interesting skill set, and he seems like a pleasant person. Last year, he hit .290 with 20 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and more walks than strikeouts. Combined with even adequate shortstop defense, you’d think that would make him one of the most valuable players in the league, and you’d be right.

In a world without Shohei Ohtani, we could’ve had a fun multidirectional NL MVP discussion involving Perdomo, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Corbin Carroll, and maybe even Paul Skenes. As it stands, Ohtani won in a walk and Perdomo finished fourth. But it’s an honor to even be in the discussion.

What do I want? More Perdomo. We kind of got that last year with Maikel Garcia’s breakout season, but I wasn’t satisfied. Last November, I went on a search for the next Perdomo. I identified young players with elite contact skills, elite plate discipline, rock-bottom bat speed, and the athleticism to play up the middle. Read the rest of this entry »


You’re Probably Underrating Dylan Lee

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

One of my favorite article genres to produce is “you’ve never heard of this reliever, but he’s great now.” Generally speaking, it’s either some dude who has been in the majors for a while but recently learned something new, or someone who burst onto the scene with some quirky pitch, delivery, or approach. Today, though, I’m trying a slightly different variation. You probably have heard of Dylan Lee. He’s appeared in the majors for six straight years and racked up more than 200 innings pitched in that time. He’s not doing anything particularly new in 2026. But he’s great, and somehow we’ve basically never written about him, so I think it’s time to rectify that shortcoming.

In 19 2/3 innings of work this year entering Wednesday, Lee has posted a 0.92 ERA and 1.08 FIP. He’s striking out a third of the batters he faces and barely walking anyone. And while no one is that good in the long run, Lee’s career stats are very solid, as well. He has a career 2.65 ERA and a 3.24 FIP (2.92 xERA, 3.19 xFIP, 2.79 SIERA). Sure, it’s over only 224 innings, but those numbers are superb. He has the 10th-best ERA of any reliever since his debut, and every other run prevention estimator is similarly situated toward the top of the table.

The simplest way to describe Lee’s game is that he throws a gyro slider as often as possible, plus a fastball and changeup when he needs to switch things up. He’s throwing that slider 56% of the time this year, which is narrowly a career high, but he’s thrown 52.5% sliders in his career, so this is hardly a complete sea change. He leans especially hard on the slider against lefties, using it more than three quarters of the time. But even against righties, he throws 46% sliders and spots his other two pitches off of his breaking ball.

While sweeping sliders are all the rage these days, Lee doesn’t throw one. His slider is most remarkable for how little it breaks. He’s not quite Tatsuya Imai out there, but in 2025, his average slider moved about an inch to his arm side, the “wrong way.” This year so far, it’s moving about an inch to his glove side. Unlike many slow, straight sliders, Lee’s has a tiny bit of induced vertical break; the pitch falls about four inches less on its flight to the plate than your average mid-80s gyro slider.

That sounds terrible, right? “Hey, I throw my slider kind of slow, and also it doesn’t slide, and also it doesn’t have any downward break.” Anyway, on an unrelated note, here’s a leaderboard from 2026:

Top Slider Swinging Strike Rates, 2026
Player Sliders SwStr%
Mason Miller 140 32.1%
Davis Martin 110 29.1%
Andrés Muñoz 161 27.3%
Dylan Lee 156 26.3%
Chase Burns 275 25.5%

Huh. Read the rest of this entry »


Ted Turner (1938–2026) and Bobby Cox (1941–2026): The Duo That Changed Atlanta Baseball

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

“If Bobby [Cox] wasn’t here, he’d be one of the leading candidates for the job. A new broom sweeps clean. That’s all,” said Braves owner Ted Turner at the October 8, 1981 press conference to announce the dismissal of the manager who had piloted the team for the previous four seasons, with just one finish above .500. Known then as one of baseball’s most controversial, impulsive, hands-on owners — so hands-on that he had even managed the team for one night, only to be prohibited from doing so again — Turner admitted that he was making a change for change’s sake.

The Braves would win the NL West in 1982 under new manager Joe Torre, but not until Turner rehired Cox as general manager after the ’85 season — just after he’d managed the Blue Jays to their first division title — and focused on building from within instead of chasing expensive free agents did the team sustain its success. Once Cox returned to the dugout in mid-1990, he led the Braves to 14 division titles, five pennants, and a championship in 15 seasons (1991–2005), interrupted only by a second-place finish in strike-shortened 1994. He added a wild card berth in his final season (2010) for a record-setting 16 playoff appearances in 29 seasons of managing. He won four Manager of the Year awards, and on the 2014 Expansion Era Committee ballot, alongside Torre and Tony La Russa, he was elected unanimously to the Hall of Fame.

Cox won more regular season games (2,504) than all but Connie Mack, La Russa, and John McGraw. He ranks third all-time in games above .500 (503), fifth in games managed (4,508), sixth in losses (2,001), and 19th in winning percentage (.556) at a 1,000-game cutoff. Aided by expanded playoffs, he’s first all-time in postseason losses (69), second in games managed (136) behind only Torre, and fourth in wins (67). He’s also the all-time leader in managerial ejections with 162, 41 more than McGraw. The count undergirded his reputation as a players’ manager. “If I were on the field, I’d want the manager sticking up for me,” Cox once said. “Sometimes players are dead wrong, ranting and raving, but you stick up for them. They appreciate that.”

“He treats you like a man. He’s very simple in what he wants,” said Tom Glavine in 1999. “He doesn’t have a whole lot of rules. You show up on time, and you show up ready to play, and you play the game the right way.”

Brash and often profane, or at least offensive, Turner earned nicknames such as “Captain Outrageous” and “The Mouth of the South” for confrontational statements, ostentatious womanizing, and self-aggrandizement. Anecdotes from his early years owning the Braves could fill a book. He eschewed the executive suite for a seat behind the home dugout, often appeared in the clubhouse wearing jeans and boat shoes, and took up chewing tobacco to fit in with players. In 1978, the New York Times’ Roger Vaughan called him “an interesting blend of Southern gentleman and funky downhome goofhead cousin in whose vernacular the words ‘sir’ and ‘ain’t’ nestle compatibly. It is an ideal combination for selling baseball in Atlanta.”

By the mid-1980s, with Cox in the fold, Turner learned to leave baseball to his baseball people and focused more on his cable television empire, where he proved to be a visionary, taking the Braves nationwide via Superstation TBS, founding the Cable News Network, purchasing the libraries of MGM films to broadcast on Turner Classic Movies and Hanna-Barbera cartoons to air on the Cartoon Network. In 1996, he merged his conglomerate — which included the Braves — with Time Warner, creating what was hailed as the world’s largest communications company, and became vice chairman while surrendering control of the Braves. After the Braves moved from Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium to their new ballpark, Turner Field, in 1997, he retained a presence at their games for several more years. He remained with Time Warner after AOL purchased it in 2001, though his prominence in the corporate hierarchy was reduced.

“For the 10 years I ran [the team], it was a disaster,” said Turner in October 1996, after completing the sale. “But buying the Braves was a good move. As I relinquished control of the Braves and gave somebody else the responsibility, they did well.”

After selling his company, Turner put his money toward humanitarian and conservation efforts. In 1997, he donated $1 billion to create the United Nations Foundation, supporting the UN and its causes; at the time it was the largest philanthropic gift in history. He became the fourth-largest landowner in the U.S., using his two million acres spread across 13 ranches for sustainable agriculture and managing the world’s largest private bison herd.

Turner died on May 6 at age 87. He had suffered from Lewy body dementia, a progressive brain disorder, since being diagnosed in 2018. Cox died on May 9 at age 84, after battling numerous health issues following a massive stroke in 2019. Their deaths followed the May 4 passing of John Sterling, a play-by-play broadcaster for the Braves from 1982–87 who gained greater fame in that role with the Yankees.

That’s a rough stretch for Braves fans, even with the team currently making a strong rebound from a rare losing season (76-86) that ended a run of seven straight postseason appearances and a 2021 World Series championship. While Turner and Cox didn’t do it alone — scouting director Paul Snyder, Hall of Fame GM John Schuerholz, and pitching coach Leo Mazzone figured prominently, and pitchers Glavine, Greg Maddux, and John Smoltz, center fielder Andruw Jones, and third baseman Chipper Jones built Hall of Fame careers with the Braves — the late great tandem raised the bar for Atlanta baseball.

“Whatever truth is to be found in it, the following is incontrovertible,” wrote the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Ken Sugiura. “It would seem a near impossibility for another two-person team to have a greater impact on sports in Atlanta than Turner and Cox. Turner was the dynamic owner who stopped at nothing to support the team. Cox was the steady skipper who delivered Atlanta — a fan base whose sporting history is draped in heartache and failure — its most consistent winner, and arguably its grandest moment, the 1995 World Series championship.”

Robert Joe Cox was born on May 21, 1941 in Tulsa, Oklahoma to J.T. Cox, an electrician, and Willie Mae (Hendrix) Cox, a store clerk. When the young Cox was three years old, his family moved to Selma, California, a farming community in the San Joaquin Valley. He grew up a Cardinals fan because the team based a Class-C affiliate in nearby Fresno, and idolized Stan Musial. At Selma High School, he played baseball, football, and basketball. In 1959, legendary Dodgers scout (and later pitching coach) Red Adams recruited him out of Reedley Junior College to sign for a hefty $40,000 bonus.

Cox spent five years in the Dodgers’ system (1960–64), splitting time between second base and third and climbing as high as Double-A Albuquerque in 1964. In November of that year, the Cubs chose him in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft; he spent 1965 at their Triple-A Salt Lake City affiliate, then on April 28, 1966 was traded to the Braves. After a strong 1967 season at Triple-A Richmond, he was dealt to the Yankees for catcher Bob Tillman and pitcher Dale Roberts on December 7, 1967.

In the spring of 1968, the going-on-27-year-old Cox initially won a reserve spot on the Yankees; when 23-year-old third baseman Mike Ferraro slumped and was sent down to Triple-A Syracuse, Cox took over for him. He played regularly in 1968, and even earned Topps All-Star Rookie honors, but was reduced to a bench role in ’69, when 23-year-old Bobby Murcer won the third base job, and then a platoon role after Murcer moved to right field. Across two seasons, Cox hit a combined .225/.310/.309 (87 wRC+) with nine homers and 1.6 WAR, and endeared himself to manager Ralph Houk, who called him “an old-fashioned ball player… comes to work early, keeps busy, hones his bat, talks baseball all the time and thinks baseball all the time. He has his limitations, of course, but you can’t help rooting for him.”

“My knees were shot by the time I got to the major leagues. I struggled a little bit when I was up there,” Cox told Kevin Newell in a 2009 interview. “But I loved it. It was a great experience. I had the opportunity to play alongside Mickey Mantle in 1968.”

After spending 1970 at Syracuse, Cox retired as a player. The Yankees believed he was worth keeping around, hiring him to manage the team’s A-level Fort Lauderdale affiliate, which went 71-70 in 1971. In 1972, Cox managed Double-A West Haven of the Eastern League to an 84-56 record and a division championship. He spent 1973–76 managing Syracuse, finishing above .500 each year and winning the International League championship in ’76 after going 82-57. During that time, he oversaw dozens of future major leaguers, most notably Rick Dempsey, Scott McGregor, and Ron Guidry.

In 1977, Cox joined the Yankees as first base coach under Billy Martin, alongside Yogi Berra, Elston Howard, and Dick Howser. “I got to know those guys really well. Pick their brains here and there,” he told Newell. After that team won the World Series, Turner hired the 36-year-old Cox to manage the Braves, replacing the fired Dave Bristol. “We’re hoping Bobby can be the manager to lead us to the promised land as soon as possible,” said Turner. “His credentials, background, and experience were just what the doctor ordered.”

Cox understood the tall task ahead, saying, “We lost 101 games last year, so obviously there is the need for a lot of work… Our top pitcher (Phil Niekro) won 16 games and lost 20 and our next-best pitcher (Dick Ruthven) won seven games. We definitely need pitching, that’s all there is to it. You can’t win without pitching.”

Robert Edward Turner III was born on November 19, 1938 in Cincinnati to father Robert Edward Turner Jr. (known as Ed) and Florence Rooney Turner. Ed was a Mississippi native whose family grew cotton; he moved to Ohio during the Great Depression. When Ted was nine, the family moved to Savannah, Georgia, where Ed started a billboard advertising company. While growing up, Ted suffered physical and psychological abuse at the hands of his alcoholic father, whom he nonetheless strove to please. He romanticized his harsh treatment, telling The New Yorker’s Ken Auletta in 2001, “He thought that people who were insecure worked harder, and I think that’s probably true. I don’t think I ever met a superachiever who wasn’t insecure to some degree.”

Ted attended the Georgia Military Academy, the military program at Chattanooga’s McCallie School, and then Brown University, where he was vice president of the debating union and captain of the sailing team. His choice of studies angered his father, whose disdainful letter Ted published in the campus paper: “I am appalled, even horrified, that you have adopted Classics as a major. As a matter of fact, I almost puked on the way home today… I think you are rapidly becoming a jackass, and the sooner you get out of that filthy atmosphere, the better it will suit me.”

While Ted later switched to economics, he was suspended twice and ultimately expelled for multiple infractions of having women in his dorm room. After leaving Brown and spending six months in the Coast Guard to fulfill his military service obligation, he returned to Georgia to join his father’s company. But even while expanding the business, Ed spiraled downwards while battling depression as well as alcohol and drug abuse. On March 5, 1963, Ed committed suicide at age 53. Deeply in debt, he had agreed to sell the company’s largest division, but the 24-year-old Ted decided to keep it, returning the down payment and paying a penalty for annulling the deal.

Turner pushed the company to greater success than his father had, and kept up with competitive sailing, trying out unsuccessfully for the 1964 Olympics. By 1970, bored of billboards, he bought a money-losing UHF television station, Channel 17, which ran fifth out of five stations in the Atlanta market. He renamed the station WTCG, which stood both for Turner Communications Group and its slogan: “Watch This Channel Grow.” The station ran old movies, classic cartoons, and syndicated sitcoms like Andy Griffith and The Beverly Hillbillies. In 1973, Turner acquired broadcasting rights for both the Braves and the NBA’s Hawks, providing WTCG with bulk programming. He bid $600,000 for the Braves’ rights, triple what the previous rights-holder, WSB, had been paying, and agreed to televise three times as many games, going from 20 to 60 per year. Turner expanded his station’s range beyond Atlanta by relaying WTCG’s signal using microwave dishes throughout the Southeast. Cable systems picked up the station.

However, the Braves were flailing. They went 67-94 in 1975 while ranking 11th in a 12-team league in attendance. An ownership group from Boston sought to purchase the team and move it to Toronto. Fearful of losing his programming, in January 1976, Turner purchased the team for $500,000 in cash and $8 million at 6% annual interest over 10 years — giving him a complete inventory of 162 games to broadcast; in 1977, he bought the Hawks, as well. Meanwhile, changes in FCC rules allowed over-the-air broadcasters to use RCA’s communications satellite to transmit their signal to cable providers, facilitating the ability for WTCG to go national. The station had two million subscribers by the end of 1976 and reached all 50 states by the end of ’78; its value had increased by $40 million. In 1979, it would be rechristened Superstation WTBS. Around this time, Turner branded the Braves as “America’s Team.”

Thanks to the landmark Messersmith-McNally decision that opened the floodgates for free agency, baseball’s landscape was changing, too. Turner’s opening salvo was to sign Andy Messersmith, the three-time All-Star who successfully challenged the reserve clause, to a three-year, $1 million deal in April 1976, and assign him jersey no. 17, with CHANNEL in place of MESSERSMITH above it — free advertising for his station, at least until NL president Chub Feeney cracked down in late May. At that time, Feeney also ordered Turner to stop playing poker with his players, and disallowed contractual incentives based on the team’s performance and attendance.

As if Turner needed even more ways to set himself apart from other owners, for the Braves’ 1976 home opener, he led the Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium crowd in singing a pregame “Take Me Out to the Ballgame,” rode a chariot while racing ostriches against the team’s broadcasters, and climbed onto the field to congratulate right fielder Ken Henderson after he homered.

Another pregame promotion called for players to race while pushing baseballs with their noses from third base to home plate. After Braves players balked at participating, director of public relations Bob Hope (not the legendary entertainer) interrupted the owner’s dinner with the Reverend Jesse Jackson and asked him to race Phillies reliever Tug McGraw. Turner won, bloodying his face in the process.

On September 17, 1976, Turner quietly made baseball history by promoting Bill Lucas, a former minor league infielder then working as the team’s farm director, to the title of vice president of player personnel and charged him with performing the duties of a GM — though Turner himself kept the GM title. Lucas became the first Black man to run a major league franchise, but alas died of a brain hemorrhage in May 1979 at age 43. Turner also brought back franchise icon Henry Aaron after his 1976 retirement. Aaron spent 13 years as vice president and director of player development before becoming a senior VP in 1989.

Turner wanted more free agents. During the 1976 season, commissioner Bowie Kuhn fined him $10,000 for tampering by having GM John Alevizos convey his interest to the agent of Giants outfielder Gary Matthews, an upcoming free agent. At a cocktail party during the World Series, Turner publicly challenged Giants owner Bob Lurie to outbid him for Matthews, and in November, signed the outfielder to a five-year, $1.875 million deal. After Lurie complained, Kuhn suspended Turner for one year while allowing the contract to stand. Kuhn also stripped the Braves of the third overall pick in the June amateur draft.

“I’m thankful he didn’t order me shot,” said Turner, who sought an injunction to block the suspension. While that process played out, on May 11, 1977, with the Braves having lost 16 straight games, he sent Bristol on a 10-day sabbatical “scouting trip,” donned a uniform, and appointed himself as “acting manager,” justifying the move as a chance to get an up-close look at his investment; coach Vern Benson made the lineup and dictated strategy. After the Braves lost to the Pirates, executives around the game voiced their disapproval. “By making himself manager, he’s making a bigger laughingstock out of the team than the losing streak is,” said Lurie. “It’s got to be one of the most ridiculous things I’ve seen in baseball,” said Padres GM Buzzie Bavasi. “Well, maybe they’ll Turner it around,” quipped White Sox GM Roland Hemond.

The next day, Feeney disallowed the move, ordering Bristol reinstated. On May 19, a federal judge upheld Kuhn’s right to suspend Turner but reinstated the draft pick. In September, while under suspension, Turner skippered the Courageous to victory in the 1977 America’s Cup, beating the challenger Australia in a four-race sweep.

Bristol was fired on October 25, 1977. The Braves’ board of directors focused on six candidates, including Berra and Howser, but did not talk to all of them; Niekro, the team’s 38-year-old ace, also threw his hat in the ring, but in the end, Turner chose Cox.

The Braves lost 187 games in Cox’s first two seasons, but with 1974 first-round pick Dale Murphy, originally a catcher, breaking out with a move to center field, the team went 81-80 in 1980, its best showing in six years, and drew over one million fans for the first time. In the strike-torn 1981 season, the Braves went a combined 50-56; additions of expensive free agents, such as reliever Al Hrabosky (signed in November 1979) and Claudell Washington (signed in November 1980), did nothing to change their fate. Shuffling the deck chairs, Turner dismissed Cox, whom the Blue Jays hired a week later. Toronto GM Pat Gillick, who as the Yankees’ coordinator of player development in the mid-1970s had worked with Cox, believed his new manager could mold a young team into a contender.

The Blue Jays had finished last in the seven-team AL East in each of their first four seasons and the first half of 1981 before rising to sixth in the second half of that year, but a booming farm system had already produced a two-time All-Star in righty Dave Stieb, a fifth-round 1978 pick. With Stieb having his first Cy Young-caliber season, righty Jim Clancy making his lone All-Star team, and youngsters Jesse Barfield, Lloyd Moseby, and Willie Upshaw acclimating to the majors, the team went 78-84 in 1982, finishing sixth, then jumped to 89 wins in ’83 and ’84, with finishes of fourth and second. Hitting coach Cito Gaston, a former minor league teammate of Cox who played for him in 1978, helped mold one of the game’s top offenses, led by Barfield, Moseby, and former Rule 5 pick George Bell. Stieb emerged as the AL’s top pitcher but never won a Cy Young.

Further fueled by the emergence of shortstop Tony Fernández — the crown jewel of the team’s pipeline of Dominican talent — and the shifts of Jimmy Key to the rotation and Tom Henke to closer, the Blue Jays went 99-62 in 1985, winning the AL East by two games over the Yankees. They took a three-games-to-one lead over the Royals in the first best-of-seven ALCS, but Cox’s gambit of starting Key, Doyle Alexander, and Stieb on three days of rest in Games 5 through 7 failed, and Kansas City’s young pitching held Toronto to five runs over those three games. The Royals completed the series comeback and went on to beat the Cardinals in the World Series.

“Bobby instilled winning,” former Blue Jays communication head Howard Starkman told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “We were only eight years into the business and all of a sudden we were one win from having the World Series at Exhibition Stadium… Bobby knew how to get the most out of players.”

Upon election to the Hall in 2013, Cox called his Toronto stint “one of the greatest experiences I ever had in baseball… I had more fun there than probably anywhere in the world.” But with his contract expired and his family still in Atlanta, he accepted Turner’s overture to return as GM.

After winning the NL West in 1982 — the first of Murphy’s back-to-back MVP seasons as he emerged as a wholesome icon ideal for marketing “America’s Team” — the Braves slipped to second in each of the next two years, with totals of 88 and 80 wins. Torre was fired, after which the team crashed to 66-96 under Eddie Haas and interim replacement Bobby Wine. Turner hired manager Chuck Tanner, who had won the 1979 World Series with the Pirates, before hiring Cox as GM.

The team barely improved, and Turner earned a reputation as such an easy mark for free agents that some approached him without being represented by agents, who were still comparatively new to the sport. Other owners disliked him, not only for his boorish, outspoken nature, but also for driving up salaries even while unsuccessfully pursuing the likes of Goose Gossage, Pete Rose, and Dave Winfield. Turner’s 1984 signing of Bruce Sutter to a six-year, $9.1 million contract included an outrageous 13% interest rate on deferred payments. That deal that looked worse when shoulder trouble hastened Sutter’s decline and ended his career prematurely.

Finally in 1986, team president Stan Kasten — who also served as the Hawks’ GM and president — advised Turner to lay off the big signings. “We had a last-place team with the highest payroll in baseball,” Kasten told The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner. He told Turner, “I know the ad boys who are selling our game on TV — which is the engine driving our train — need something to sell in the offseason, so you’re signing free agents every year… You’re also blocking the development of younger players and you’re giving up draft-pick compensation.”

“Stan, I don’t need a lecture. Just do it,” Turner told Kasten. He and Cox fell into line during the mid-1980s collusion scandal, where owners avoided poaching other teams’ free agents. Notably, in an incident described in John Helyar’s vastly entertaining Lords of the Realm, Cox withdrew an offer to free agent righty Bryn Smith, in part because the structure of Turner’s ownership fell under league scrutiny as he brought in minority partners to bail him out of debt after buying MGM and trying to buy CBS. Even while telling his fellow owners, “Gentlemen, we have the only legal monopoly in the country and we’re f—ing it up,” Turner could only afford to buck the system so hard.

From 1985–89 under Tanner (who was fired in early 1988) and Russ Nixon, the Braves annually lost between 89 and 106 games, never finishing higher than fifth, but below the surface, Cox was laying the groundwork for what would follow, aided by Snyder. They drafted pitchers Kent Mercker (1986), Steve Avery and Mark Wohlers (both 1988), outfielder Ryan Klesko (1989), and third baseman Chipper Jones (1990, with the first pick); all would soon contribute, as would 1983–85 draftees Glavine, Ron Gant, and David Justice, whom Cox inherited. Cox’s August 1987 trade of the veteran Alexander to the Tigers for Smoltz, a 20-year-old prospect, was a stroke of genius that also helped Detroit win its division; by 1989, Smoltz was an All-Star.

On June 22, 1990, with the team en route to a 65-97 record and its third straight season of attendance below one million, Cox fired Nixon and returned to the dugout. For as bad as things looked, the rotation — led by Glavine, Smoltz, and Charlie Leibrandt — emerged as a strength, Justice won NL Rookie of the Year, and Gant broke out. In the fall, Cox relinquished GM duties to Schuerholz, who had helped build the Royals into an AL powerhouse and at one point tried to hire Cox.

In 1991, Glavine won 20 games and his first Cy Young, Avery came into his own, and Schuerholz signee Terry Pendleton won the NL batting title and MVP award. The team won 94 games, including eight in a row from September 28 to October 4 to turn a two-game deficit into a division title. Thanks to back-to-back shutouts by Avery (the series MVP) and reliever Alejandro Peña in Game 6 and Smoltz in Game 7, the Braves outlasted the Barry Bonds/Bobby Bonilla Pirates in a thrilling NLCS to capture their first pennant since 1958.

The World Series against the Twins — who also vaulted from worst to first — proved to be an instant classic, with five games decided by one run and four via walk-off, three of which came in extra innings. The Twins won the first two in Minnesota, but the Braves took the next three in Atlanta. They lost Game 6 at the Metrodome on Kirby Puckett’s 11th-inning walk-off homer, and then Jack Morris shut out the Braves for 10 innings in Game 7; Smoltz, Mike Stanton, and Peña matched zeroes with Morris until Gene Larkin’s 10th-inning walk-off single against Peña decided the championship.

The agonizing near-miss was hardly the last. In 1992, after a 98-64 record and another NL West title, the Braves again outlasted the Pirates in a seven game NLCS, rallying for three runs in the bottom of the ninth against flagging starter Doug Drabek and reliever Stan Belinda. With two outs, pinch-hitter Francisco Cabrera drove in the tying and winning runs for a 3-2 victory that sent the Braves back to the World Series to face the Blue Jays, now managed by Gaston.

Atlanta won Game 1 behind Glavine and catcher Damon Berryhill’s three-run homer off Morris (now a Blue Jay), but lost three one-run games in a row. After Smoltz beat Morris in Game 5, the Braves scratched out the tying run against Henke in the bottom of the ninth in Game 6 to send it to extras. Leibrandt, relegated to relief duty that postseason, yielded two runs in the top of the 11th. The Braves rallied to bring the tying run to third base before Otis Nixon — who had driven in the ninth-inning run — grounded out to end the series.

In December 1992, the Braves signed Maddux, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, to a five-year, $28 million deal, winning out over a reported $34 million bid by the rebuilding Yankees. With Maddux winning his second of an unprecedented four straight Cy Youngs, Glavine placing third, and Justice, midseason acquisition Fred McGriff, and Gant finishing 3-4-5 in the NL MVP voting, the 1993 team won a franchise-record 104 games. They needed every win to edge the Giants, who themselves had added Bonds in free agency, in the NL West standings, but fell to the Phillies in a six-game NLCS. The 1994 team was 68-46, second in the newly reorganized NL East behind the Expos, when the players’ strike began in August.

On May 7, 1995, two weeks into the strike-delayed season, Cox was arrested at his home and charged with simple battery for allegedly punching his wife Pamela and pulling her hair during a domestic dispute. The police report said Cox was intoxicated and that his wife had visible swelling and redness on the left side of her face. She said he had spilled a drink on the carpet while the couple had guests over and that she had made a comment about it; the alleged assault occurred after their guests departed. In the report, Pamela Cox “stated that this has occurred many times before, but (she) never called the police because of possible media attention” and the effect on their children, the youngest of whom witnessed the attack. Cox admitted to pulling his wife’s hair and calling her a name but denied hitting her, according to the report. He added “that she also has been violent in the past, and that he hit her in reflex to her assault on him.”

In a joint press conference two days later, Pamela “said she didn’t make statements to police about physical abuse in the past or on Sunday night and didn’t know why they were in the police report,” according to a newspaper report in the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer. More:

“Said Pam Cox of the dispute: ‘It was just a personal problem… that had been escalating. We needed to talk about this a month ago, but due to the (Braves’) extended spring training it just kept escalating.’

“Bobby Cox, who said, “I’m just not a good listener,” said the couple will attempt to resolve their problems with the assistance of counseling. But he strongly denied the charge that he hit his wife.”

While today Major League Baseball would have placed Cox on leave and likely would have disciplined him in accordance with its domestic violence policy, at the time neither the league nor the Braves imposed any penalty on Cox — or even investigated the matter. The couple attended court-ordered counseling, after which the charges were dropped.

On the field, the Braves put it all together in 1995, going 90-54 to begin their string of NL East titles. Maddux and Glavine finished first and third in the Cy Young voting, and McGriff, Justice, Klesko, and rookie Chipper Jones all hit at least 20 home runs. After steamrolling the Rockies in a four-game Division Series, the Braves held the Reds to five runs in a four-game NLCS sweep. In a tight six-game World Series, the Braves limited a powerhouse Cleveland lineup that included Albert Belle, Kenny Lofton, Manny Ramirez, and future Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Jim Thome to just 19 runs; five games were decided by one run. The Braves secured their championship — the franchise’s first since 1957, when it played in Milwaukee, and the first ever for an Atlanta team in a major professional sport — when Glavine (the Series MVP) and Wohlers combined for a one-hit shutout, backing Justice’s solo homer in a 1-0 victory. “The team of the Nineties has its world championship!” exclaimed NBC announcer Bob Costas.

“At last, at last,” said an elated Turner, whose five-year plan to bring Atlanta fans a championship instead took two decades. In September 1995, just before all of that went down, he agreed to sell Turner Broadcasting — which by that point owned CNN, TBS, TNT, the Cartoon Network — as well as the Braves to Time Warner for $7.5 billion dollars worth of stock. The deal, which took just over a year to complete, made Turner the vice chairman of Time Warner and its largest single shareholder (10%), but he relinquished control of the Braves, from whom he’d already stepped back.

“I’ve been a C.E.O. for 33 years, and that’s a long time for anyone,” Turner said when the deal was first announced. “I’m married to Jane Fonda, so I know what it’s like to be No. 2,” he added, referring to his third wife, who would help shape his political evolution and his latter-day philanthropic efforts.

The regular-season dominance continued, as the Braves annually led the NL in wins from 1996–99, with the majors’ best record in ’97 (101-61) and ’99 (103-59), and a new franchise record of 106 wins in ’98. Smoltz’s 1996 Cy Young ended Maddux’s four-year reign, and after the Braves swept the Dodgers in the Division Series and beat the Cardinals in a seven-game NLCS, 19-year-old Andruw Jones, a late-season call-up, clubbed two homers in the World Series opener against Torre’s Yankees. But while the Braves won the first two games in New York, the Yankees took four straight in Atlanta to capture their first championship since 1978.

After winning four pennants in five years, Cox’s Braves ran into buzzsaws in the postseason in 1997 and ’98, falling to the Marlins and Padres in a pair of six-game NLCS. The team did return to the World Series in 1999, the year Chipper Jones won NL MVP honors, but was swept by the Yankees in the World Series.

Cox’s Braves continued to win division titles, but from 2000–05, they were ousted in the Division Series all but once, with three straight Game 5 losses from ’02–04. The great rotation, the foundation of the team’s success, scattered. Smoltz lost his 2000 season to Tommy John surgery and returned as a reliever. Glavine defected to the Mets after 2002, and Maddux rejoined the Cubs after ’03. The farm system produced NL Rookie of the Year Rafael Furcal in 2000 and a solid second baseman in Marcus Giles in ’01, but it would take until the ’05 arrivals of Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann before factoring in again. In 2006, after Mazzone departed to join the Orioles, the Braves slipped to 79-83, their first losing season since 1990, and their first of four straight outside the postseason; they sandwiched winning records around a 72-90 crash in 2008.

On September 23, 2009, Cox announced he would return for one final season. With a lineup anchored by McCann and rookie Jason Heyward and a staff led by Tim Hudson and Billy Wagner, the 2010 Braves rose to the occasion by going 91-71 and claiming the NL Wild Card, but the eventual champion Giants ousted them in the Division Series. All four games were decided by one run, but the Braves scored just 11 total.

Such offensive droughts, or at least a lack of timely hitting, often doomed Cox’s postseason teams despite the starters’ great efforts. While Smoltz went 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA for the Braves in October, Glavine went 12-15 with a 3.44 ERA, and Maddux 11-13 with a 2.81 ERA. In 129 postseason games from 1991–2010 under Cox, the Braves outscored opponents 539-472 but went 64-65, including 19-25 in one-run games and 5-7 in walk-offs. Their batting clutch score in that span was -3.20, their pitching clutch score -0.44 — in other words, they underperformed, particularly on the offensive side.

Upon retiring, Cox continued as a team consultant, but he suffered a massive stroke after participating in the Braves’ home opener in 2019. Though his condition eventually improved somewhat, he never regained full capacity for speech or the use of his right arm, and made it to Truist Park — where a statue of him was unveiled in 2017 — just three times, the last on August 22, 2025 to celebrate the 30th anniversary of his championship team.

Turner’s volatility and Cox’s steadiness made them quite an odd couple. Both men had their flaws, but they paired well. Together and separately, they left an indelible mark on baseball.


The Retro FanGraphs Sweatshirt Is Back in Stock!

The Retro FanGraphs Sweatshirt is back in stock!

We partnered with the clothing brand Ellsworth & Ivy to make these retro-themed FanGraphs sweatshirts. They have fully stitched chenille lettering and a stitched logo near the bottom hem:

As a quick reminder, when we put these up for sale in January, they sold out in 24 hours. So get yours before they’re gone!


Baltimore Orioles Top 63 Prospects

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2478: MLB’s New Main Characters

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the latest lima-bean-related revelations about Tarik Skubal’s elbow surgery, the Giants’ censored synchronized thrust and the history of homoerotic celebrations in baseball, Coby Mayo’s dog’s devotion, the Orioles’ rotation issues (and a Rico Garcia update), Atlanta’s unexpectedly productive DHs, Ben’s invisible baseball neighbor, and Konnor Griffin’s glow-up, plus (1:12:33) a check-in on the hitters and pitchers who’ve over- or underperformed their projections the most through the first quarter of the regular season, and the players who’ve made cases to become new MLB main characters.

Audio intro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny)
Audio outro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to The Athletic on Skubal’s surgery
Link to Seinfeld squirrel surgery scene
Link to Giants celebration clip
Link to Key & Peele sketch
Link to Baggarly post
Link to Baggarly article
Link to other article on the edict
Link to JHL’s possible smooch attempt
Link to new bow celebration
Link to Gilbert GIF
Link to Vitello thrust
Link to Posey ownership story
Link to Charles B. Johnson wiki
Link to Johnson donations article
Link to Mets outfield imitation
Link to 2022 Mookie celebration
Link to Mookie Twitch stream answer
Link to Mookie Twitch clip
Link to bukkake wiki
Link to Mookie’s Ohtani comment
Link to 2024 Dodgers crotch bump
Link to 2016 Cubs crotch bump
Link to 2014 Mariners celebration post 1
Link to 2014 Mariners celebration post 2
Link to 2019 Rangers crotch grab
Link to Red Sox celebration info
Link to Dodgers memorial announcement
Link to Collins obit
Link to MLBTR on Fried’s elbow
Link to Mayo game story
Link to Mayo quote clip
Link to Mayo quote text
Link to Argos wiki
Link to mid-March team SP projections
Link to team SP WAR to date
Link to Orioles SP stats so far
Link to team hitter WAR
Link to Elias’s Eflin/Rodriguez quote
Link to 2026 Elias SP quote 1
Link to 2026 Elias SP quote 2
Link to 2026 Elias SP quote 3
Link to team defense leaderboard
Link to .000 BABIP streaks
Link to MLB.com on Garcia
Link to Profar DH article
Link to team DH production
Link to team LF production
Link to 2026 Location+ leaders
Link to Link to 2024-26 Location+ leaders
Link to latest Skenes gem
Link to BP on Griffin’s rookie eligibility
Link to Griffin’s early-season sample
Link to Griffin’s second sample
Link to hitter leaderboard since Griffin’s birthday
Link to “quarter pole” definition
Link to preseason hitter projections
Link to preseason pitcher projections
Link to hitter pace leaderboard
Link to pitcher pace leaderboard
Link to hitter over/underperformers
Link to pitcher over/underperformers
Link to Hogg on Miz velo post
Link to Hogg on Miz velo article
Link to Jones on Miz velo
Link to Miz vs. Jones velo fun fact
Link to Crizer on April 2025 main characters
Link to Clemens on Walker
Link to Raleigh shower story
Link to BP on Turang
Link to Blue Jays IP leaders
Link to Orioles shutout gamer
Link to 2475 Podsednik Stat Blast wiki
Link to 1879 Podsednik Stat Blast
Link to 1885 Podsednik follow-up
Link to Podsednik walk-off
Link to corvids wiki
Link to icterids wiki
Link to Vandy video clip
Link to Vandy controversy summary
Link to Vandy-Mizzou gamer

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A Brief Tangent on Arm Strength

Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Ceddanne Rafaela has a weak arm. He also has a strong arm.

This is an analysis I’ve wanted to do for a while. It’s not that important or complicated, and most of it is fairly obvious. But it gets at something that comes up from time to time in the various places baseball is discussed online. The conversation tends to start like this: Team A should sign Player X and move him to a new position. Inevitably, one of the first questions asked about such a plan is whether Player X has the arm strength to play that new position.

The number that gets cited to “yay” or “nay” such a follow-up is arm strength, in miles per hour. But ask any baseball fan to sit with this for a moment, and they’ll raise a concern. Arm strength, to some degree, is a function of position. A third baseman has a longer throw to make than a second baseman. A right fielder has a longer throw to make than a left fielder. This means players with better arms tend to play those positions, as we can see in this plot:

Read the rest of this entry »