For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Miami Marlins.

Batters

Well, I guess we’re getting the bad news out of the way first! There is a lot to like about the Miami Marlins’ roster and almost none of it is contained in this section. I say almost none because Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a very talented player who is a blast to watch when he’s healthy and things are going well. Any pitch he connects with has the potential to be the perfect blend of velocity and launch angle. He combines that offensive ability with decent defense at second base, below-average glove work at short that still avoids being disastrous, and speed that will hopefully remain fully intact in 2023. And while you’ll notice Javier Báez on his comp list, his contact skills are less bleak and he’s nowhere near as over-aggressive.

If Chisholm is the Marlins’ Thelonious Monk, the rest of the lineup is, well, your neighbor’s tone-deaf 10-year-old son who got a guitar for Christmas and suddenly discovered Korn. There’s just no realistic scenario in which the offense is a significant plus for the team. The Fish’s third-best projected hitter is an over-30 catcher who had a .584 OPS last year. Using the ZiPS plate appearances, only four players in the organization project to have a 5% chance of a 4-WAR season in 2023. That’s fewer than teams like the Rockies and Pirates. What makes this especially unforgivable is that the Marlins intend to contend with this team now. There’s nothing wrong with a contender adding Jean Segura, but the team needs so much more than him; he’s not the finishing piece in an otherwise playoff-worthy lineup here. There’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker in the years before the pitching gets expensive, meaning that there’s no one in the organization who projects to be a difference-maker before Miami trades its pitchers to larger-market teams for prospects. Read the rest of this entry »

Checking in at no. 47 on our recently published Cleveland Guardians prospect list, Andrew Misiaszek was drafted in a round that no longer exists. Taken with the 23rd pick of the 2019 draft’s 32nd round, he had pitched four years at Northeastern University, serving mainly as a reliever and eventually as the team’s closer. Since being drafted, he has worked his way up the minor league ladder, finishing 2022 in Triple-A Columbus.

Beginning last season in Double-A, Misiaszek dominated to the tune of a 0.56 ERA in 32 innings. After he was promoted to the highest level of the minors, he threw 29.2 additional innings of 3.64-ERA ball while striking out over 32% of the batters he faced. I spoke with him early last December about the various mechanical adjustments he has made in the minors, as well as his progress in connecting the dots in his repertoire and how that has impacted his blueprint for success. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cleveland Guardians. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but I use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 1008

In this episode, we get insight from a professional run-creator before turning the tables on our favorite interviewer.

• In the first half, David Laurila welcomes Donnie Ecker, bench coach and offensive coordinator for the Texas Rangers, to the program. Ecker, who David also interviewed last year, shares what it’s like to work with manager Bruce Bochy, associate manager Will Venable, and director of hitting Cody Atkinson as they help the team’s hitters be at their best. We also learn about how important it can be to adapt strategies from other sports and industries, and how studying pitching can help with understanding hitting. Finally, Ecker tells us about working with players like Marcus Semien, Josh Smith, Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Ezequiel Duran, and Nathaniel Lowe. [3:22]
• After that, Ben Clemens makes David the subject of the interview for FanGraphs Backstories. We hear about David’s pre-baseball life, from his time at the Detroit Institute of Arts to working in the ticket office at the Boston Ballet to moderating a Red Sox message board, and how interviewing baseball players led to a career change that took him to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus before arriving at FanGraphs. David also talks about the art of the interview and some of his most notable conversations before sharing his favorite baseball memories, including his first major league game and the no-hitter he saw with his daughter. [39:40]

To purchase a FanGraphs membership for yourself or as a gift, click here.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 6 minute play time.)

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

On a ballot that features one closer whose support from voters suggests he’ll eventually wind up in Cooperstown (Billy Wagner) and another who’s fourth all-time in saves (Francisco Rodríguez), it’s easy to forget that there’s a third one of note, particularly as he’s certain to receive less than the 5% of votes required to remain on the ballot. Huston Street carved a niche as an all-time collegiate great before becoming a first-round draft pick and an AL Rookie of the Year, one whose outstanding command, movement, and deception compensated for his comparatively moderate velocity (his sinker maxed out at an average of 92.5 mph in 2009). The combination carried him to a career total of 324 saves, 20th all-time — an impressive total considering he threw his last pitch a month before his 34th birthday.

In a 13-year career spent with the A’s, Rockies, Padres, and Angels (is that a West Coast bias?), Street made two All-Star teams but also 11 trips to the injured list. His slight-for-a-pitcher frame — he was listed at 6 feet and 205 pounds but by his own admission was around 5-foot-10 — couldn’t withstand even the rigors of throwing an inning at a time at high intensity for very long. “There was a reason I never lifted a bunch of weights in the middle of my career,” he told The Athletic’s Pedro Moura in 2019. “Because I was so fucking injury prone that I would get too tight.” Read the rest of this entry »

Chaim Bloom’s plan to replace Trevor Story began to take shape Wednesday morning, as the Boston Red Sox signed outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year, $7 million deal. Duvall can earn an additional $3 million in playing time incentives; he missed the second half of the 2022 season with an injured wrist, and the Red Sox are hedging their bets against another IL stint.

A couple of weeks ago, this signing wouldn’t have made much sense. Boston’s outfield looked all set with Masataka Yoshida in left field, Enrique Hernández in center, and Alex Verdugo in right, plus Rob Refsnyder on the bench and Jarren Duran at Triple-A. But then their second baseman/potential shortstop underwent major surgery on his throwing arm, and the Red Sox were thrown for a loop. The versatile Hernández, who’s played every position save for catcher, became the shortstop by default, and Boston needed a new center fielder. Enter Duvall.

Duvall took up center field late in life, making his first appearance there a few weeks before his 32nd birthday. He started his first game there the following April and didn’t become a primary center fielder until last year, his age-33 season. In 2023, he’ll attempt to play his first full season as a center fielder at an age when most players are already moving down the defensive spectrum. Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time in the prophecy has been reached.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: They’d offer him a set number of dollars in return for a set number or seasons!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, it’s opening)

12:04

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would offer 5/119 or 6/138

Read the rest of this entry »

In my last article on swing-mirroring, I detailed how, on average, one hitter’s result impacts the first-pitch swing decisions of the next hitter. I was inspired by Asch Conformity, or social influence, something I’ve experienced in my own life whenever I’ve been the last among family and friends to tune into a TV show or movie series. Usually, I cave and watch because I either want to be able to join cultural conversations and/or I convince myself that if everyone else likes a piece of media, so will I. These reasons typify the two general types of social influence: Normative, or when you are enticed to conform for the sake of fitting in; and informational, or when you conform because you think doing so is the right course of action (i.e., maybe I’ll actually enjoy the TV show).

Going back to baseball, each offensive result didn’t fall neatly into either category of social influence (nothing in life truly does). Additionally, for some results like double plays, other psychological factors such as reference dependence played a part. So I instead went very general and ended up categorizing outcomes based on whether they tended to increase, decrease, or have no consistent impact on the subsequent hitters’ first-pitch swing rate (FPS%).

This process served as a lesson in how difficult it can be to disentangle individual psychological drivers of behavior from the broader workings of the environment and the mind, especially when using observational data. But at the same time, I also noticed that the general trends varied based on the first-pitch swinger in question. This opened up another avenue to explore: Examining the patterns of individual differences in swing-mirroring could get me closer to isolating the effect of social influence. Read the rest of this entry »

Tommy Pham has only played in nine major league seasons, accruing a little more than seven and a half seasons’ worth of service time. It feels like it should be more. This man has drifted to so many ports, made headlines for conduct meritorious, ignoble, and points in between. He has lived and died a hundred times in a baseball uniform, and every one of those lives has been fascinating. Pham is as close as you’ll get among millennials to one of those old-timey ballplayers with an unbelievable backstory, like Dazzy Vance or Turkey Mike Donlin. Now he’s a New York Met, signed to a one-year, $6 million deal with another $2 million possible in incentives.

I’ll leave the fantasy football jokes to the comment section, but I will mention what Andy Martino of SNY noted as the news broke:

Yes, Tommy Pham slapped a man because of fantasy football, but the background work Mets did on him turned up intel that he's a very well-liked teammate and good clubhouse presence. The man he slapped was on a different ballclub, after all

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) January 18, 2023

Read the rest of this entry »