Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 5 of 11

© Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players with options or opt outs in their current contracts. Read the rest of this entry »


Why Do The Playoffs Have So Many Strikeouts?

© Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

If you’re a fan of balls in play and general athleticism, I’ve got bad news for you: the 2022 playoffs have featured the highest strikeout rate in playoff history, a whopping 26.6% excluding intentional walks heading into last night’s game. More than a quarter of plate appearances have ended without the fielders moving, the runners tearing around the bases, or indeed anyone having reached at all. For what it’s worth, the unintentional walk rate is only 7%; the strikeouts are what’s out of hand, not the non-contact plays.

Why is this the case? I can think of many reasons. Maybe the teams that made the playoffs are jam-packed with the best strikeout pitchers they can find. Perhaps the parade of relievers Jay Jaffe noted last week are just too effective. Maybe that extra velocity from starters is to blame. Hitters shouldn’t escape scrutiny, either; maybe they’re swinging for the fences more with the bright lights of October on them and accepting more strikeouts as a result. It could be matchup-based, or pitchers could be using their best pitches more often. It could be better scouting of hitters’ weaknesses, or just an accident of a few pitchers getting hot, or any number of things. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Toronto Blue Jays – Entry Level Opportunities

Toronto Blue Jays – Entry Level Opportunities

The Toronto Blue Jays are seeking highly motivated and creative entry level employees to assist with day-to-day tasks within various areas of their Baseball Operations department, including but not limited to Scouting, Player Development, High Performance, and Research and Development/Analytics. The start and end dates are flexible depending on candidate availability and both full-season and partial-season candidates will be considered. These positions will be based in Toronto, ON; Dunedin, FL; or one of our affiliate locations throughout Canada, the United States, and Dominican Republic. All positions are paid.

There are several roles with different primary focuses, with more detail on each broad type of position provided below. To the extent that you’re interested in a specific focus you may reflect that in your application, but you only need to submit one application to the program and all applications will be considered for possible fits. These job categories are intentionally broad, and a successful candidate may be considered for a role that involves a blend of these responsibilities, or in an entirely different area that is more suited to their unique experiences and skills.

Across all roles, the Blue Jays are seeking:

  • Demonstrated passion for baseball and excellent reasoning, problem-solving, creative thinking, and communication skills.
  • Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals.
  • Demonstrated ability to work independently and self-direct work.
  • Excellent attention to detail and time management skills.
  • The ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball calendar.

The Blue Jays see diversity and employment equity as foundational to creating a successful culture. Applicants who may not traditionally feel empowered to apply for a job in this field are strongly encouraged to apply. Please feel free to include any questions about the role with your application, or reach out to baseballresumes@bluejays.com.

Player Development Technology
In this role, candidates passionate about working directly with coaches and players will be embedded with teams at the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY). On a daily basis, you will be with your team as the point person for video, technology, and data resources. This may include helping to deploy and operate technology both in practice and game settings, organizing/cataloguing/reviewing video and data, helping to define and track player goals, and supporting longer-term R&D and Player Development projects. You will also assist with the logistical needs of the team (including Minor League Operations, Nutrition, and High Performance departments), as well as on-field activities (BP, fungos, catching pens). Fluency with Microsoft Office is required; experience with a range of baseball-related data capture systems (BATS, Portable Trackman, Rapsodo, Diamond Kinetics, etc.) would be helpful, as would experience with video editing and review software. Spanish proficiency is also helpful, and may be required in some cases.

Player Development Coaching
With roles at each of the Blue Jays’ development complexes (Dunedin, FL and Boca Chica, D.R.) and affiliate teams (Dunedin, FL; Vancouver, BC; Manchester, NH; Buffalo, NY), candidates interested in growing their careers in data-driven player development will support all functions of the team coaching staff. While helping players and coaches prepare for games on a nightly bases is a main focus, in this role you will have the ability to support and influence development goal setting and tracking, on-field practice design and implementation, and data tagging, organization, and review. In this role you will also support video and data capture in pre-game settings, documentation of action plans and other player updates, as well as supporting logistics related to player and coaching needs. Depending on the candidate, on-field duties (eg. coaching 1B, coaching/catching bullpens, etc.) may be part of semi-regular or regular duties. Experience with hands-on coaching of athletes is helpful but not required, as is experience with technical tools like SQL, R, or Python. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office is a necessity, and Spanish proficiency may also be required in some cases.

Operations (Scouting, Baseball Operations, Player Development)
Candidates will use their excellent organizational skills and high attention to detail to support the logistical and administrative functioning of the scouting, player development, or baseball operations departments. This could include data entry and cleaning, assisting with the coordination and execution of player evaluation projects, maintaining and organizing video and data resources, and helping to stay on top of departmental administrative functions (expense reports, compiling statistics and rosters, meeting logistics, etc.). If supporting our Player Development department, you may be asked to help integrate technology into on-field work, administer player plans, translate documents to/from English and Spanish, and help with scheduling for players and staff. Strong knowledge of Microsoft Office, particularly Excel, is important for this role; familiarity with baseball rules and regulations could be an asset, and Spanish proficiency may also be helpful (or required in some cases).

Advance Scouting
In this role, candidates will use their strong knowledge of the game of baseball to support our Major League team in game-by-game and series-by-series preparation. This could include a wide range of activities, such as collecting and organizing statistics for reports, conducting ad-hoc research and analysis on players or baseball generally, watching video to provide written evaluations and insights, and supporting on-field data and video collection. Strong time management and organizational skills are important, and skills with things like R, Shiny, and similar tools would be helpful plusses.

Research & Development
Candidates will use their analytical and programming skills to help identify and research baseball questions. This may include using data organization and cleaning, modelling/machine learning, visualization, and statistical techniques with tools such as R, Python, and SQL. Experience with advanced modelling techniques or other specialized skills (Computer Vision, Neural Networks, Bayesian Modeling, Anomaly Detection, Time Series etc.) would be beneficial, but not necessary. You may present work to a variety of audiences (fellow researchers, front office members, coaches, or players), and may use the results of research to contribute to player evaluations at key junctures. Additional duties may include providing logistical support to major events on the baseball calendar (Draft, Trade Deadline, etc.) and other general departmental support.

Baseball Systems Development
Candidates for this role will help to create, update, and support web applications and databases that are used throughout baseball operations; a moderate to high level of experience in computer science, web and/or database development, software engineering, or a related field is quite important. A portfolio of work showing your past experiences in these areas is also helpful. Duties may include working with end users to gather requirements, engineering systems to acquire and database new datasets, or doing front-end web design work on baseball information systems. You will have the opportunity to experience and provide logistical support to key points on the baseball calendar.

Biomechanics/Sports Science
Candidates for this role have a strong academic background in Biomechanics, Physics, Sports Science, or a related field and are passionate about applying their expertise to baseball. This could be in a research/data analysis focused capacity, a role that is more hands-on with players and other development and performance staff, or somewhere in the middle. In all cases, you would work closely with player development, R+D, and high performance staff to collaborate on research, contribute to player development goals, and support data capture and organization. You would be expected to individually stay on top of the latest research and resources in the field of biomechanics and sports science. Experience with statistical programming, modelling, and visualization tools is very helpful, but not required.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Toronto Blue Jays.


Effectively Wild Episode 1923: The Umpire Perfect Game

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about umpire Pat Hoberg’s unprecedented “perfect game” behind the plate in Game 2 of the World Series, followed by musings on Nolan Arenado opting not to opt out of his contract, the Royals hiring Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as their new manager, and Rob Manfred’s latest update on the zombie runner, then break down Games 1 and 2 of the World Series, reflect on the folly of predicting sweeps and seven-game series, and provide a Past Blast from 1923. Then (1:17:54) they bring on Umpire Scorecards creator Ethan Singer to explain how he realized an umpire perfect game had occurred, how Hoberg’s umpire perfecto was calculated, Hoberg’s track record, the squishy nature of ump perfection, the concepts of accuracy, expected accuracy, and consistency, the odds of a perfect game occurring, Umpire Scorecards in the robot-umps era, umpiring accuracy and difficulty in the postseason, the rest of the umps in the World Series, and more.

Audio intro: John Cale, “Perfect
Audio interstitial: Ronnie Wood, “100%
Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., “Highlights of 100

Link to Ben on umpire perfect games
Link to Hoberg article
Link to Hoberg’s Twitter scorecard
Link to Hoberg’s website scorecard
Link to Hoberg game video
Link to Bob Wolff Larsen call
Link to Vin Scully Larsen call
Link to MLBTR on Arenado
Link to Jay Jaffe on Arenado
Link to MLBTR on Quatraro
Link to MLBTR on the White Sox search
Link to Shakeia Taylor EW episode
Link to study on manager demographics
Link to Shakeia on manager demographics
Link to Rob on manager demographics
Link to James Wagner managers thread
Link to zombie runner comments
Link to 2020 zombie runner survey
Link to The Athletic zombie runner survey
Link to FG zombie runner survey
Link to ZiPS postseason odds
Link to FG WS Game 1 story
Link to FG WS Game 2 story
Link to Jaffe on Verlander in the WS
Link to Posnanski on on Verlander in G1
Link to post on Díaz’s non-HBP
Link to FG post on starters in relief
Link to Valdez suspicion story
Link to Maldonado/Pujols bats
Link to Silver Slugger finalists
Link to Ben on predicting sweeps
Link to Joe’s newsletter
Link to MLB.com WS predictions
Link to ESPN WS predictions
Link to The Athletic WS predictions
Link to CBS Sports WS predictions
Link to 1923 story source
Link to SABR on radio broadcasts
Link to article on televised World Series
Link to Jacob Pomrenke’s website
Link to Jacob Pomrenke on Twitter
Link to Ethan’s first EW interview
Link to Umpire Scorecards leaderboard
Link to World Series umpire lineup
Link to MLB’s no-hitter redefinition
Link to support Umpire scorecards
Link to Ethan’s personal website
Link to Ben in 2014 on postseason umps
Link to Ben on MLB ump evaluations
Link to 2015 article on ump improvement
Link to 2016 article on ump improvement
Link to study on umpire age
Link to umps and high leverage study
Link to EW on umpire decision fatigue
Link to Baumann on rainout implications
Link to NYT umpire interactive

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How Will World Series Game 3 Rainout and Extra Off Day Affect Pitching Strategies?

Phillies Astros World Series
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

All day, the weather radar predicted that the skies would open at a particularly inconvenient time for the Phillies and Astros. While MLB waited as long as it could to see if the wind shifted, by 7 p.m. local time, it was clear the weather would not cooperate. (Rain in late October in the Mid-Atlantic region? Whoever could have foreseen such a thing?) As such, Game 3 of the World Series has been postponed 24 hours, with better weather ahead; the nighttime forecasts for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are for clear skies and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Ideal Fall Classic weather, in other words.

Moreover, if neither team sweeps all three games in Philadelphia, the scheduled off day between Games 5 and 6 will remain intact. That pushes a potential Game 6 to Saturday night and Game 7 to Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »


Aledmys Díaz Runs Into One (With His Elbow)

© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Some kids dream about playing in the World Series and getting the big hit. Fewer kids, one imagines, dream about playing in the World Series and taking the big hit, but that small group might include Aledmys Díaz.

In Game 1 of the World Series, Díaz came to the plate with two on in the bottom of the 10th inning. After a wild pitch moved both runners into scoring position, David Robertson hung a curveball high and inside, and Díaz did his best to thrust his shoulder into the path of the ball, barely missing. The next pitch wasn’t a hanger, but that didn’t stop Díaz from sticking his Kevlar-covered elbow into the ball and trotting off toward first base. Read the rest of this entry »


Why Chas McCormick Loves Going Oppo (and Needs It To Survive)

Chas McCormick
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

There were a few times during the ALCS when I glanced up at a game and mistook Chas McCormick for Jose Altuve. Why? Both he and McCormick don’t set their feet in the box like a typical hitter would. Instead, they have distinct foot placement which aligns their front shoulder with the right fielder instead of the typical alignment with the center fielder. In McCormick’s case, it’s more pronounced than that of Altuve. And that’s not just in the setup; it includes the extent to which the Astros outfielder strides closed as well.

Every hitter, player, human, etc. has a different body. Depending on one’s body and its strengths and limitations, different adjustments need to be made to get the most out of that body when it comes to swinging a baseball bat. You may think it’s weird or ugly, but that doesn’t matter. McCormick’s closed setup and stride unlock a part of his game that he otherwise would not have. During the ALCS, I progressively came to realize he is a dangerous hitter when he drives the ball to the opposite field. If you pitch to his strengths that play into his inside-out bat path, then he can get lift on the ball and pepper the short porch in Minute Maid Park. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 4 of 11

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of outfielders. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 3 of 11

© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders. Read the rest of this entry »


Nolan Arenado Is Staying Put in St. Louis

Nolan Arenado
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Say this for the Cardinals: They do a very good job of keeping the band together. On Wednesday, the news broke that Adam Wainwright will return to the team for his 19th and final major league season. On Saturday, St. Louis revealed that Nolan Arenado has declined to exercise the opt-out clause in his contract, meaning that he will remain in the fold through 2027, making $144 million (much of it deferred) for the five-year period.

In his second season with the Cardinals, the 31-year-old Arenado set career highs in WAR (7.3) and wRC+ (151) — numbers that ranked second and fourth in the NL, respectively — and hit .292/.358/.533 with 30 homers. He made his seventh All-Star team and is a finalist to win a 10th Gold Glove; if he does win the award, he’ll tie Mike Schmidt for the second-highest total behind only Brooks Robinson (16). As he also led the NL in bWAR (7.9), and therefore edged teammate Paul Goldschmidt in both versions (Goldy had 7.1 fWAR and 7.8 bWAR), he stands a reasonable chance of winning the NL MVP award. But whether or not he does, the Cardinals couldn’t have asked for anything more from their third baseman.

When Arenado signed his eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies in February 2019, his contract included no-trade protection as well as the ability to opt out after the 2021 season. His relationship with the organization began to sour quite quickly after that deal came together, however, and he was traded to St. Louis in February 2021 along with $51 million in guaranteed and conditional payments. As part of the trade, he agreed to defer about $50 million, payable over the 2022–41 timespan; accepted a guaranteed salary of $15 million for 2027; and received an additional opt-out after the 2022 season. By opting out either after last year or this one, he could have saved Colorado about $20.57 million from that $51 million figure, but because he’s staying, his old team is on the hook for that money, which includes $5 million annual payments from 2024 to ’26. He’s the gift that keeps on giving to the Rockies’ beleaguered front office. Via Cot’s Contracts, he’ll receive $35 million for 2023 and ’24, and subsequent salaries of $32 million, $27 million, and $15 million. Read the rest of this entry »