Gleyber Torres Will Make a Pit Stop In Detroit

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Gleyber Torres is changing his stripes, so to speak. After seven seasons as a regular on the Yankees’ middle infield, the 28-year-old has agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal with the Tigers. The move fortifies the middle infield of a team fresh off its first postseason appearance in a decade while also creating an opportunity for an enigmatic player to secure a much larger deal while still in his 20s.

Acquired from the Cubs ahead of the 2016 trade deadline as part of a four-prospect package in exchange for Aroldis Chapman, Torres has spent the past seven seasons as a mainstay of the Yankees’ middle infield, playing the last three as their regular second baseman after bouncing back and forth between shortstop and second in his first four seasons. He made the American League All-Star team in both 2018 and ’19, finishing third in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting in the former year and getting a bit of down-ballot MVP support in the latter, during which he clubbed 38 homers and hit for a 125 wRC+, neither of which he’s been able to replicate.

In 2023, Torres set a career high in WAR (3.6) while posting his highest wRC+ (120) and home run total (25) since ’19, but his ’24 season was an uneven one. His final numbers were unremarkable (.257/.330/.378, 104 wRC+), and he was briefly benched twice for a lack of hustle, but he dug himself out of a deep, early slump to nose his way across the league average line. He was at his best late in the year, a top-of-the-lineup catalyst who helped the Yankees reach their first World Series since 2009. Read the rest of this entry »


And Teoscar Goes to… the Dodgers

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It’s important in life, as well as in baseball, to know when a relationship has run its course and it’s time to shake hands and part on good terms. Equally, if conversely, it’s important to know when not to screw with something that works.

So Teoscar Hernández is coming back to Los Angeles. The hard-hitting outfielder will make $22 million per year for three years, with a club option for a fourth at $15 million. Because this is the Dodgers, there’s all sorts of accounting rigmarole baked into the contract: a $23 million signing bonus, and another $23 million in deferred money, which will drop the value of the contract for CBT purposes (by exactly how much, we don’t know quite yet). Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2263: The Stories We Missed in 2024 (NL Edition)

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Lindsey Adler, and Hannah Keyser talk about Lindsey and Hannah’s evolving relationships to baseball writing, near-simultaneous Substack-starting, and (ongoing) pursuits of self-discovery and creative fulfillment. Then (45:27) Ben and Hannah analyze the Teoscar Hernández and Corbin Burnes signings and (1:05:49) discuss at least one listener-nominated topic about each National League team that wasn’t previously covered on the podcast in 2024 (plus a real-time reaction to Shohei Ohtani’s announcement that he’s going to be a dad).

Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)

Link to Lindsey’s Substack
Link to Hannah’s Substack
Link to MLBTR on Teoscar
Link to Passan on Teoscar
Link to MLBTR on Burnes
Link to Ben C. on Burnes
Link to Gammons on Hazen
Link to Hannah on diving catches
Link to Ohtani’s Insta post
Link to Toglia’s Insta post
Link to Burnes’s Insta post
Link to Snow/Baker video
Link to Shaq meme
Link to MLBTR on Maxwell
Link to Maxwell on EW
Link to missed stories links
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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FanGraphs Q&A and Sunday Notes: The Best Quotes of 2024

Author’s Note: Sunday Notes is off this week due to a health scare — I’m now home recovering — so my annual Best Quotes compilation is being bumped back from the 31st to fill the void. As always, thanks for reading.

——

In 2024, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within the game. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came via an assortment of Q&As, feature stories, and my Talks Hitting series. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

———-

“When you say hitting, I’m assuming that you mean striking the ball. There is so much that goes into the striking of the baseball. There are a lot of moving parts mechanically [and] mentally that culminate into the perfect storm of creating that compression between the barrel of the bat and the ball.” — Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox first baseman

“When you’re not hitting… I mean, who likes being bad at something? Hitting is hard. So, it’s fun, but you have to embrace the struggles. As a hitter, you know you’re going to struggle. You’re also going to not struggle.” — Julio Rodríguez,, Seattle Mariners outfielder

“The guy I talked to about doing it was doing some analytics stuff and video scouting for us at the time. It was [current Reds GM] Nick Krall. I loved talking with Nick before he was the big dog. I mean, there was the manager getting some information from one of the lowest guys on the totem pole. I think the talk shows probably would have died if I told them who I was getting information from.” — Jerry Narron, former Cincinnati Reds manager

“How much should you really value analytics versus guys who go out on the field and get outs consistently? If a guy has Stuff+ metrics that are off the chart — this guy shouldn’t get hit — but the hitters tell you different, versus a guy that maybe has below-average stuff but he goes out and carves every time out. Which matters? You have to be able to pitch.” — Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers pitcher

“I’m a heavy supination pitcher. When I drop down and throw that supinated pitch, it creates the seam shift for everything — the two-seam and the changeup. I didn’t know about any of this until I got with [Bannister] in spring training. He kind of showed me how it worked.” — Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants pitcher

“I wanted to throw it back in the day, in the minor leagues with the Giants, but I was fresh from being drafted and they said, ‘Save that for when you need it, maybe when your stuff starts slowing down a little bit.’ I was like, ‘All right. Cool. Whatever.’” — Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher

“I’m not into French Impressionism as much as, say, modern abstract. That’s one that I like, but I wouldn’t say I’m pigeonholed into one genre. I’ll see something and be, ‘Man, I really like that,’ or maybe it’s, ‘I think that’s a little overrated.’ I guess that’s just like any of us when it comes to art.” — Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres pitcher

“I think it would be disingenuous for any scouting director, or front office, to say that they don’t pay attention to mock drafts by respected third-party publications, especially as you get closer to the draft. Now, do we rely on our internal data to make draft decisions? Yes, of course.” — Dan Kantrovitz, Chicago Cubs VP of Scouting

“One of the reasons we maybe walked past an Aaron Judge… I mean, our evaluations were really strong, but the fact that he struck out so much in college was a bit of a red flag. I think we learned a little bit from that. At the same time, guys who strike out generally strike out.” — Eric Kubota, Oakland Athletics Scouting Director

“Tim Wilken once said to me, ‘Don’t laugh at mine and I won’t laugh at yours.’ Another one he would always say is, ‘Once you see a guy good, don’t go back.’ But there I was in Philly and Mike [Trout] was right down the road playing. So I went to see again and the look wasn’t as clean.” — Tom Allison, Los Angeles Dodgers special assignment scout

“D-Train. He was another competitor, a plus competitor and a good athlete for a big guy. Unconventional delivery, right? He had the big leg kick, almost up over his head; probably not the type of mechanics that you would teach, but it worked for him.” — Mike Redmond, Colorado Rockies bench coach

“Green light. If I gave him a red light and told him not to go, I don’t know what the hell would happen. He’s got a green light even when he’s got a red light. He doesn’t care. He’s running.” — Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays manager

“There are a handful of games where I’ve felt that way, like, ‘Man, this is a really good baseball game going on.’ When you come out on the bad end it kind of sucks, but you try to have that appreciation for ‘That was a really good one.’” — Aaron Boone, New York Yankees manager

“I don’t have good hop. My four-seam performs like it has hop, but it actually doesn’t have it. I throw it from… I like to call it ‘throwing it from the basement’ as opposed to throwing from above your head. That’s where you find the vertical approach that is more down to up.” — Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros pitcher

“If all you’re looking for is ‘stuff,’ you’re completely misunderstanding the game. Eventually the game will either force you to understand it, or you’re just going to be out of the game. You have to understand the art of pitching.” — Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays pitcher

“I think that as the baseball world evolves with technology, you kind of see what’s important and what’s not. I’ve kind of followed that path. For me, it’s not ‘I don’t think this is important,’ but more so ‘This happens because of this.’” — Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds pitcher

“Their stuff is off the charts. Jones has a chance to be really, really good. His pitch mix, his velocity, his athleticism. And then Skenes came as advertised with some of the more dominant combinations that you’ll face from a young pitcher.” — A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers manager

“I’ve probably held a million baseballs in my life. I mean, as a person who holds a lot of balls — for lack of better words — I can tell you very minuscule details that are different. I have to. Think about how precise we have to be with throwing them, how much we have to spin and locate.” — Marco Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher

“My basketball game was somewhat similar to my baseball game. I kind of did the right things. I knew what to do. I knew where to go. I averaged around 15 points in high school. It was [a big school]. We had over 2,000 kids. There are a lot of big schools in Georgia.” — Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs shortstop

“I love to play soccer. I love to watch soccer. I played until I was 15, I want to say, right before I signed to play professional baseball. I got a lot of goals. Number 9 [traditionally the number worn by strikers/center forwards]. Both feet.” — Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman

“I’m a left-knee-down guy, and I go to two feet if a runner steals. Growing up, and even now, you find people who don’t understand why catchers are on one knee. It allows you to be in better positions to pull strikes and get in front of balls. It makes catching a lot easier, overall. — Kyle Teel, Boston Red Sox catching prospect

“I never got the half-ass award, but I did have a big one. You know those big green Physio Balls you work out with? Danny Jansen and I were in the cage before a game, and he kicked one to me. I swung at it with my bat, and when I hit it, the bat came back and gave me 11 stitches above my eye. It knocked me out.” — Rowdy Tellez, Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman

“When the elevator doors open, Bruce Kimm, the Braves manager is there. He had knots, shiners, black eyes. I said, ‘Man, I didn’t know we got you that good.’ He looked like he’d been hit by Mohammed Ali 25 times. I felt bad. But yeah, that team got in a lot of fights.” — Doug Glanville, ESPN broadcaster

“You can’t fix hop. That’s ‘pow!’ You can fix dip. What I mean by dip, the ball is going at their feet; it’s going down. You can fix that type of stuff. But you can’t fix hop. Hop just has that in it.” — Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angles manager

“I’d had one home run all year, and then in our three-game conference tournament I had three, including two in the championship. And again, I pitched seven innings. I was Shohei Ohtani that day. That’s the way I like to think of it.” — Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher

“A fly ball gets hit down the right field line, and the kid starts running. Then he stops at the line. He reaches into foul territory, trying to catch the ball like a football guy trying to stay in bounds. The ball landed out of his reach, foul. In the dugout, we were like, ‘What just happened?’” — Fredi Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles bench coach

“Growing up, I knew every batting average. I could tell you the starting lineup for probably every team in the big leagues. Even coming up [as a player], watching the game the way I did, that was the case. Getting into coaching, I could tell you every coach on every team as well. There’s a lot more turnover now.” — Bob Melvin, San Francisco Giants manager

“We got in on Wednesday night and Boston was playing Baltimore on Thursday. So, I bought a ticket in the center field bleachers and floated around, watching the game. I wanted to realign my perspective and watch as a fan.” — Logan O’Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels catcher

“[After I retire], it will probably be tough watching just as a fan. That’s the hard part. The game is always so much easier sitting on the couch. I’ll try to keep the perspective of a player, knowing how hard this game really is, but at the end of the day, I’ll be sitting at home wondering what I’d do with this hitter. That’s always going to be in me.” — Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs pitcher

“We get calls on a lot of our players and we have to listen. We have to hear the conversation… What we tell every team is, ‘Listen, we’re open to being creative.’ We can’t rule anything out before we hear it, no matter who the player is.” — Derek Falvey, Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations

“I was like, ‘I get stuck, because internally I feel like I have the ability to be crafty, but it’s also my nature to just be a power pitcher. That’s my competitor, my inner competitor. That’s kind of what fuels my fire.” — Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“A lot of the time I’ll throw a pitch and it gets misclassified; a certain pitch will be called something else. I’m still the same pitcher — I’m fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, sinker — but sometimes the slider gets a little bit cutter-y and sometimes it gets a little bit sweeper-y. That’s kind of been the case my whole career.” — Max Fried, Atlanta Braves pitcher

“We get the kinematic sequencing, the front leg blocking, the horizontal abduction — the AB deduction of the elbow — pelvis rotational speeds. Every biomechanical piece out there. Our biomechanist gives me a good report on each guy, what they’re doing stride length, stride width, whether they’re landing closed or more open.” — Scott Emerson, Oakland Athletics pitching coach

“You’ve got outliers. You’ll see [Yoshinobu] Yamamoto go out deep before a start. At our park, he went from the foul line all the way to the right field bullpen, which is maybe 240 or so, He may have gone further if he had space. Trevor Bauer used to go foul pole to foul pole. Gerrit usually won’t go past 100-120.” — Matt Blake, New York Yankees pitching coach

“It’s like a one-seam gyro spin that catches. It’s a bigger horizontal break than a regular gyro slider. It’s not depth-y, but shoots to the left pretty good. A sweeper is going to have side spin. Gyros have bullet spin. A gyro sweeper is bullet spin, but with one seam… one seam that catches. A seam-shift gyro.” — Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals pitcher

“Those guys have pop. They can hit it farther than me. Colton Cowser. I joke around with him. ‘Bro, you’re a skinny dude. You crush the ball. Wow. How do you do it?’ I don’t have that kind of pop. But I can hit in the game.” — Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles outfielder

“Even though you’re 0-for-20, you’re still going to put the cleats on. You’re going to go out there thinking, ‘OK, today it shifts. I’m going to go 10 for my next 10.’ So, yeah, hitting is fun. It’s always fun.” — Tre Morgan, Tampa Bay Rays first base prospect

“I kind of took [Kodai] Senga’s grip a little bit. It’s like a mix of Senga and [Kevin] Gausman. I have the horseshoe rotated here [on the ring side of the middle finger] and then the other one kind of splits between the lace. I actually found it on a Tread video on YouTube.” — Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners pitcher

“You see guys from my slot throwing sinkers and it’s predictable. You know which way it’s going to move. But with a four-seam from my slot, it’s not predictable. You don’t expect the ball to move that way, and that’s where hitters kind of get messed up with it.” — Tayler Scott, Houston Astros pitcher

“I don’t think I’m a guy who can throw one pitch and say, ‘Here it comes, try to hit it.’ Statistically, I don’t know that I actually have a best pitch.” — Tyler Holton, Detroit Tigers pitcher

“We’re not allowed to have cell phones, but if somebody comes out to the ‘pen late, we’ll be asking, ‘Hey, what did so-and-so do?’ or whatever. We can also maybe ask a fan or a security guard, ‘Hey, what’s going on with the Cowboys game?’” — Chris Martin, Boston Red Sox pitcher

“The kick change… basically, you kick the axis of the ball into that three o’clock axis. You kind of get that saucer-type spin to get the depth that a guy who could pronate a changeup would get to. You’re not using a seam-shift method. You’re not truly pronating. It’s kind of this cheat to get to that three o’clock axis.” — Davis Martin, Chicago White Sox pitcher

“I truly try everything. I catch one knee, catch two knees, left knee up, left knee down, both knees down. I’m trying it all. I’m figuring out what works best for me. But I can catch however. I’ll use all three in the same game.” — Ethan Salas, San Diego Padres catching prospect

“Growing up, I kind of had a natural, sweet lefty swing, As I kept getting bigger I had to keep working at it, working with my coaches back home, working on trying to stay short. Consistency is the biggest key, especially for a guy my size.” — Bryce Eldridge, San Francisco Giants, first base prospect

“In the 2024 baseball universe, our starters are pretty optimized. And I think there is a distinction between optimized and maxed out. We’re not looking to max out and get every possible pitch out of our starters, we’re looking to optimize the performance of our team.” — Justin Hollander, Seattle Mariners GM

“I think the line between starter and reliever is blurring… I don’t think it will be hard to replicate what we did last year if we choose to pursue that nontraditional pitching strategy of a reliever starting a game, then a starter-type pitching the bulk innings, and then relievers coming in at the end of a game.” — Scott Harris, Detroit Tigers president of baseball operations

“At times there have been pursuits of bat speed and bat speed development programs. There have also been feedback loops related to swing decisions and quality of approach. Ultimately, we are emphasizing the things that we want to value. At the end of the day it’s about run creation.” — Ross Fenstermaker, Texas Rangers GM

“To me, hitting is not so much about swinging. Obviously, you have to swing to hit the ball, but swinging isn’t hitting. Hitting is making the right decision. It’s knowing the pitcher. It’s knowing what the situation calls for. The swing comes last.” — Mark Loretta, San Diego Padres special assistant

“For a young kid reading this, my message would be to not try to be anything you’re not. If you’re a contact guy, don’t try to hit home runs. Be yourself, knowing that the best you can do is the best you can do.” — Colt Emerson, Seattle Mariners infield prospect

“With Fenway, they wanted you to use the Monster. They were working a lot on airside, pull stuff with me. That just wasn’t the type of hitter I was. Trying to do that, the power output never really went up. What happened is the swing-and-miss went up, and the hit-ability went down a little bit.” — Nick Yorke, Pittsburgh Pirates infielder

“Philosophically, we pride ourselves on the ability to co-design with our athletes. Our hitters have a say in their development. We’re not dictating to them what they need to do… As an organization and a department, we’re data-informed, but we’re not data-driven.” — Brenton Del Chiaro, Milwaukee Brewers assistant director of player development

“We take that crystal ball and try to incrementally improve it, decision after decision after decision… We never think we have this thing figured out. We’ve kept notes from prior meetings — 5, 10, 15 years ago — and they’re terrible. The goal for five years from now, if I’m fortunate enough to still be here doing this, is that we look back at our thoughts on what makes sense today, and think we’re idiots.” — Erik Neander, Tampa Bay Rays, president of baseball operations


Sun Burnes: Arizona Signs Ace Righty Corbin Burnes to Anchor Rotation

Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Last offseason, the Diamondbacks were in search of a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was thin at the top – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani were probably never available to them, so their best options were Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of those guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing performance they had expected. But instead of waving their hands in the air and raving at the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks got right back on the horse:

BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. opt out after 2 years

Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z

Corbin Burnes was the best free agent pitcher available. In each of the last five seasons, he’s been one of the top pitchers in the game, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that time frame, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In other words, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it choice at the top of the starting rotation. He’ll receive $35 million a year for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second year of the deal, which also includes a $10 million signing bonus.

With Gallen also on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have one of the best one-two combinations in the majors. That doesn’t even include Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when healthy, or Brandon Pfaadt, who looked like he was finally breaking out before a rough final two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with plausible playoff starters. That’s how you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2262: The Stories We Missed in 2024 (AL Edition)

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Michael Baumann play “College Baseball Player or U.S. Army Air Forces Pilot Who Took Part in Operation Vengeance,” banter about Jake Burger’s three consecutive seasons with a .250 batting average, the Tigers signing Gleyber Torres, and how the ruling about Diego Pavia’s NCAA eligibility could affect college (and pro) baseball, then (26:59) discuss least one listener-nominated topic about each American League team that wasn’t previously covered on the podcast in 2024.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes 2, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Operation Vengeance
Link to MLBTR on Torres
Link to FG top 50 FA
Link to over/under draft
Link to AP on Pavia ruling
Link to BA on Pavia ruling
Link to Pavia wiki
Link to missed stories links
Link to EW gift subscriptions

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Three-United: Guardians Sign Carlos Santana Again (Again), Trade Josh Naylor to Diamondbacks

Wendell Cruz and Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

I hope that you spared a thought over the holidays for the poor Naylor brothers. In a premise tailor-made for a lesser Hallmark movie, their time as teammates came to an end just four days before Christmas, when the Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick. Just 21 minutes after Jeff Passan broke the news that broke up the family, he also reported that veteran first baseman Carlos Santana had agreed to a one-year, $12-million deal to fill the hole Naylor left in the Cleveland infield. He failed to report on what, if anything, would fill the hole left in Bo Naylor’s heart.

After five years away, Santana is coming home to Cleveland for the third time — another solid premise for a Hallmark movie. In fact, he still has a home in Cleveland. Or he did, anyway. He put it on the market a few weeks ago and closed on a sale two days before signing with the Guardians. Another fun side note to Santana’s signing: He very nearly busted the We Tried Tracker. Ken Rosenthal listed seven other teams that were in on Santana: “The Seattle Mariners, Santana’s team in 2022, sought to reunite with him virtually the entire offseason, and were pushing for a resolution. Santana said both New York teams, Detroit and Arizona also were in the mix, while San Diego and Texas had asked him to wait.” If you’re keeping score at home, that’s four teams that were in the mix, two in the brand-new category of asking the player to wait, and then the extraordinarily thirsty Mariners. As you may have noticed, Rosenthal is citing Santana himself as the source for this information. If more players spoke to reporters about the interest they received, the tracker would look a lot more robust.

After running a combined wRC+ of 94 from 2020 to 2023, Santana suddenly rediscovered his form with the Twins in 2024. In his age-38 season, Santana ran a 114 wRC+ with 23 home runs, and his 11 fielding runs earned him his first Gold Glove. He racked up 3.0 WAR, more than he totaled in all but two of his 15 years in the big leagues, and good for the fifth-most WAR among first basemen last season. His average contact quality didn’t stray far from his career norms, and his vaunted batting eye remained about as strong as ever. The big difference is that 23.8% of his batted balls came in the form of line drives or fly balls to the pull side. That’s his highest rate since 2014. Focusing on pull-side power has been a major organizational focus for the Twins, so much so that before the season, Trevor Larnach decided he’d gone too far in that direction and needed to develop a more balanced approach. Whether or not the Twins were responsible for it, this approach change certainly worked for Santana, and the Guardians are hoping that he can keep both the bat and the glove going for one more year.

As for the Diamondbacks, they’re in for their first taste of life without a cornerstone at the cold corner since 2010. Naylor may not be peak Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker, but he’s been a top-10 first baseman over the past three years. As slugging first basemen who play bigger than the numbers suggest, Naylor and Santana have a lot in common. Both players are under six feet tall and both depend on the home run ball despite lacking jaw-dropping exit velocities. Naylor hits the ball on the ground more often and lacks Santana’s gift for staying within the strike zone, but he hits the ball harder. Despite comparable average exit velocities and hard-hit rates, Naylor’s 90th percentile exit velocity was 106 mph, significantly higher than Santana’s 103.7-mph mark. In 2024, despite running a bottom-quartile groundball rate, Naylor put up the first 30-homer season of his career, to go along with a 118 wRC+. He’s now reached that mark or higher in each of the last three seasons. His 2.3 WAR ranked 11th among first basemen in 2024, and his 7.0 WAR over the past three seasons ranked eighth.

Santana’s deal is for exactly the same amount as MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Naylor would get in his final year of arbitration, and that’s what makes this such a Cleveland move. The Guardians are taking on more risk due to Santana’s age and giving up Naylor’s higher upside, but essentially, they swapped out two similar players for identical prices and wound up with a draft pick and an interesting arm in Cecconi. Steamer projects Naylor to put up 2.0 WAR next season, compared to 1.2 for Santana. You can understand why, on the “Five and Dive” podcast, Jeffrey Paternostro called the move, “so Guardians (derogatory).” It took a whole lot of work for Cleveland to make its first base situation a bit dicier in exchange for a couple longshots.

Cecconi announced his arrival in Arizona with a bang in 2023, and I mean that very literally. He made four starts and three relief appearances, running a 4.33 ERA and 4.37 FIP. Cecconi entered the 2024 season as the D-backs’ no. 5 overall prospect and their system’s top-ranked pitcher, but he struggled mightily, running a 6.66 ERA and 5.02 FIP. He bounced between the minors and majors, and he was sent to the bullpen in late July, but his 4.49 xERA and 4.70 xFIP — while still nothing to write home about — were much less worrisome. Cecconi doesn’t rack up many whiffs or strikeouts, he doesn’t run a great groundball rate, and he doesn’t avoid hard contact. But what he does have is solid control, a fastball that can reach 98 mph, three other pitches that grade out as above average according to Pitching Bot, Stuff+, and StuffPro, and 0.155 years of service time.

The Rays were rumored to be interested in him at the trade deadline, and it’s entirely possible that the Guardians turn him into a serviceable pitcher. Although the fastball can reach 98, it averages closer to 94 and got rocked last season. Somehow, the Diamondbacks let Cecconi throw it 55% of the time anyway. Maybe the Guardians will get him in the pitching lab and help him figure out a fastball that works. Maybe they’ll make him a full-time reliever to bump his velocity back up to the top of its range. They’ll definitely have him throw his heater less often. Then again, maybe they just wanted that draft pick.


JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Ian Kinsler

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Even as an amateur, Ian Kinsler spent most of his career in someone else’s shadow. At Canyon Del Oro High School in Tucson, Arizona — where he played on two state champion teams — and then at Central Arizona Junior College, he played alongside players who were picked much higher in the draft. After transferring to Arizona State, he lost the starting shortstop job to Dustin Pedroia, who had initially moved to second base to accommodate his arrival. With the Rangers, for whom he starred from 2006–13, he was a vital cog on two pennant winners but took a back seat to MVP Josh Hamilton, future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltré, and perennial All-Star shortstop Michael Young. Even after being dealt to the Tigers, he drew less attention than Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, or Max Scherzer.

Particularly in the developmental phase of his career, those slights and oversights left Kinsler with a chip on his shoulder, but also a drive to improve — and improve he did. He starred at his third collegiate stop, the University of Missouri, helped the Rangers emerge as an American League powerhouse while making three All-Star teams, added another All-Star selection in Detroit and won two belated but well-earned Gold Gloves. His 48 leadoff home runs ranks sixth all-time. Twice he combined 30 homers and 30 steals in the same season, making him one of just 16 players with repeat membership in the 30-30 club. For the 2007–16 period, he ranked among the game’s most valuable players by WAR via a combination of excellent defense, very good baserunning, and above-average hitting. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2261: Rickey Broke Records, and the Mold

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley discuss the career and life of Rickey Henderson, focusing on changes in public perceptions of his play and personality, how underrated he was (even though he was highly rated!), and his impact on the modern game and media, then (41:52) catch up on a flurry of transactions, including a run on first basemen, NL/AL East pitching moves, and predawn newsbreaking.

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Ben on Rickey
Link to Bryant on EW
Link to Mays EW episode
Link to FG payrolls page
Link to MLBTR arb salaries
Link to FG SP projections
Link to Marlins revenue sharing
Link to Santana house sale
Link to Rooker tweet
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JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: Dustin Pedroia

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Because of his size — officially 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, but by his own admission, a couple inches shorter — Dustin Pedroia was consistently underestimated. Though he took to baseball as a toddler and excelled all the way through high school and Arizona State University, scouts viewed him as having below-average tools because of his stature. He barely grazed prospect lists before reaching the majors, but once he settled in, he quickly excelled. He won American League Rookie of the Year honors while helping the Red Sox win the 2007 World Series, then took home the MVP award the next year, when he was just 24.

Over the course of his 14-year career, Pedroia played a pivotal role in helping the Red Sox win one more World Series, made four All-Star teams, and banked four Gold Gloves. Understandably, he became a fan favorite, not only for his stellar play but because of the way he carried himself, radiating self-confidence to the point of cockiness, and always quick with a quip. “Pedie never shuts up, man,” Manny Ramirez told ESPN Magazine’s Jeff Bradley for a 2008 piece called “170 Pounds of Mouth.” Continued Ramirez, “He’s a little crazy. But that’s why we love him. He talks big and makes us all laugh.” Read the rest of this entry »