These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

MJ Melendez, C, Kansas City Royals
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Omaha Age: 22 Org Rank: 13 FV: 40+
Line: 2-for-4, HR, K, BB

Notes
Melendez’s four-bagger in Wednesday’s game was his 31st on the season, which ties him with Griffin Conine atop the minor league home run leaderboard.

As an added narrative wrinkle to their ongoing homer chase, Conine’s father (former big-leaguer Jeff Conine), is now an assistant coach at Florida International University under Melendez’s father, Head Coach Mervy Melendez. While the playful, multi-generational rivalry between the father-son duos makes for a compelling storyline, there’s plenty more to be gathered from Melendez’s performance this year, much of which adds significant shine to his prospect apple. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we explored the roster depth of the American League playoff contenders, identifying the strengths and weaknesses that might prove decisive down the stretch for the teams whose playoff odds sit above 10%. Today, we’ll do the same for the National League squads with October ambitions.

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Strengths: Atlanta’s slow and steady climb into first place has involved a considerable amount of roster management. One side effect of all the maneuvers that have gotten them where they are is significant depth. During Travis d’Arnaud’s absence, the team learned that William Contreras is a capable big league catcher. They filled their considerable outfield holes with Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall, while Cristian Pache, who flamed out early in the season, has finally gotten hot at Triple-A Gwinnett and should be a nice September addition. The Gwinnett infield is packed with players who have big league experience, like Jason Kipnis and Ryan Goins. The return of Huascar Ynoa, with Ian Anderson not far behind, creates a sudden bevy of rotation options. Read the rest of this entry »

I was admittedly skeptical of the Starling Marte trade, mostly because I’m enamored with Jesús Luzardo’s potential. It makes one dream. The older Marte did not have such upside; for nearly ten seasons, he’s been a contact-first, speedy outfielder who was good but not great. But Oakland did solve their center field conundrum, and that about justified letting go a pitcher like Luzardo.

And while it’s not feasible to judge a trade a month after its completion, at this moment, the A’s have done exceptionally well. Marte has a 157 wRC+ for them so far and has also swiped 11 bags. Meanwhile, Luzardo has been struggling with command, an issue that’s long clipped his majestic wings. Then again, it’s not as if the latter is now helpless, and it’s not as if the former is now a markedly different player — or is he? To my surprise, Marte had been running a walk rate of 10.2% when I checked in on him; for context, his former career high is a 6.1% clip from 2014. He didn’t start drawing walks after arriving in Oakland — this is a season-long development — but things are different now.

Marte is 32, and veteran hitters don’t magically improve their plate discipline without a measurable change. If you scroll through his FanGraphs page, it’s easy to spot the career-low O-Swing rate — 32.7%, to be exact. Not swinging at balls absolutely results in more walks, and in fact, O-Swing% is the best descriptor we have of walk rate. Here’s how the two line up in scatterplot form, using qualified hitters from 2020–21:

So, is it that simple? As with many baseball-related things, the better answer is more complicated. It’s true that Marte is running a career-low chase rate, but the margin is thin. In 2017, he had an O-Swing rate of 33.0% yet also recorded a walk rate of just 5.9%. This suggests that chasing less hasn’t always led to additional walks. Giving legitimacy to his newfound knack for free passes requires us to search for a true change — a sign of a new approach from someone with years of experience. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline has passed, but that doesn’t mean teams have stopped scrambling to upgrade or at least patch their pitching staffs with veteran free agents. On Monday, the Rays signed David Robertson, who hasn’t pitched in the majors in more than two years but who recently helped Team USA win a silver medal at the Summer Olympics. On Tuesday, the Dodgers inked Shane Greene to a deal just three days after he was released by the Braves. Both are former Yankees (on the 2014 team) and former All-Stars, and both are on major league contracts. While neither is likely throw a ton of innings, both could pitch their way into throwing significant roles down the stretch.

Both of these teams — which of course met in last year’s World Series — have gotten strong work out of their bullpens to date. Through Monday, the Rays’ bullpen led the majors in WAR (6.2) while the Dodgers’ led the NL (4.4), and both units rank among their respective leagues’ best in nearly all of the other major categories:

With that said, the Rays currently have 17 pitchers on the injured list, including Jeffrey Springs, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn right ACL on Monday; Matt Wisler, who’s dealing with inflammation in his right middle finger; Pete Fairbanks and Ryan Thompson, who are both out with shoulder inflammation; and J.P. Feyereisen, who’s down with biceps tendinitis. Throw in the since-traded Diego Castillo, and the Rays are currently without six of their top eight relievers in terms of total appearances, and five of their top eight (all but Feyereisen) in terms of WAR. All but Springs (and Castillo) are expected to return by the end of the month, but it’s not unreasonable for the Rays to seek out additional depth. Read the rest of this entry »

As the Braves have moved up the standings, claiming sole possession of first place in the NL East for the first time this season, the left side of their infield has lead the charge. Granted, the whole team is playing well right now, but through August 16, third baseman Austin Riley and shortstop Dansby Swanson are each in the top-10 in WAR since the All-Star break, at 1.5 apiece.

I wrote about Riley earlier this season, so it makes sense to cover his left-side counterpart now. Plus, Swanson has always been a personal favorite of mine; in January 2020, I wrote about why I thought he was poised to break out ahead of last season. And while Swanson’s offensive numbers — he posted a .274/.345/.464 slash line and a 116 wRC+ — were the best of his career, critics could still point to a raised strikeout rate, high BABIP, and general lack of power. At the time, I said that Swanson’s improved plate discipline might be one sign of better days to come. But with the significant increase in strikeouts and no associated increase in power, it seemed fair to worry about what he’d do at the plate in 2021.

The projection systems were ambivalent on the sustainability of his 2020 as well. ZiPS had Swanson posting a 90 wRC+ this year; Steamer, slightly more optimistic, went with 93. His 2021 stats don’t deviate that much from those projections either: Through 495 plate appearances, he’s slashed .264/.316/.493 with a 110 wRC+ — better than the start of his career, but worse than 2020.  Read the rest of this entry »

A month ago, things were fine. After the games of July 17, the Padres were 55-40, hanging on to the periphery of the NL West chase. Five games back of the Giants, they didn’t have a ton of hope — our odds gave them a 10.4% chance of winning the division — but they were close enough to dream, and a 5.5-game edge in the Wild Card race meant they had a 92.3% overall chance of reaching the playoffs. Today, that number is down to 46.3%. Yikes!

It didn’t happen overnight. By looking at the slow decline of their chances, I think we might learn a thing or two about what went wrong, and maybe get a sense of what they’ll need to do the rest of the year to avoid plummeting all the way out of the postseason, an outcome that felt downright inconceivable before their recent swoon.

July 24
Record since July 17: 3-3
FG Playoff Odds: 92.3%
Wild Card Lead: 5.5 games

Things were looking up! A huge group of reinforcements had just come off the injured list, as Drew Pomeranz, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Ryan Weathers, and Austin Nola all returned to action. On the field, the team fended off some NL East opposition — Nationals, Braves, and Marlins — and kept pace in the standings. Even better news: the trade deadline was approaching fast, and there’s no one better to add to a team than AJ Preller. The Padres were linked to everyone, and after their offseason frenzy, every rumor seemed credible. The playoffs seemed all but a certainty; the real question was whether they could catch the teams ahead of them in the West. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from Brendan Gawlowski. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Luis Frías, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A Reno Age: 23 Org Rank: 12 FV: 45
Recent News: Promoted to Triple-A Reno

Tall, thick around the middle, and with a few elements in his delivery that bear a passing resemblance to Jose Valverde’s, a body comp to Papa Grande is only natural here. Like his fellow countryman, Frías uses a split and comfortably reaches the mid-90s with his heater. The stuff comparisons end there though, as the 23-year-old has a deeper arsenal, one that suggests a future in the rotation remains a possibility. Read the rest of this entry »

It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Cedric Mullins came out of nowhere, but the 26-year-old Baltimore Orioles outfielder has exceeded expectations in what is essentially his first full big-league season. Swinging exclusively from the left side, the former switch-hitter is slashing a stellar .318/.382/.539 with 20 home runs and a 151 wRC+ heading into Tuesday’s action. Moreover, his 4.7 WAR is tied for third-highest among MLB position players.

Mullins sat down to talk hitting when the Orioles visited Fenway Park this past weekend.

———

David Laurila: To start, how would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Cedric Mullins: “I would describe myself as someone whose primary focus is to get on base. I’ve always been a leadoff-type hitter, but I also have some power. When I see a pitch I can handle and am able to put a good swing on it, it might go over the fence. Maybe it will be a double.”

Laurila: What about your setup and swing path?

Mullins: “I’ve made some tweaks. We brought the technology and the robots out and got some numbers on what my swing path looks like and how I could make a few [changes] to be more consistent through the zone. For me, it’s more or less just ‘see the ball, get a pitch to hit, put a good swing on it,’ but at the same time, the game has changed so much. Now you can see what your body is doing on certain things. It’s a matter of being attentive to those.”

Laurila: What is your history with hitting analytics? Read the rest of this entry »

With the elimination of the waiver deadline, the last two months of the season (or more accurately now, the last six weeks) can leave front office personnel feeling like little more than helpless observers. Problems at the big league level, whether of the health or performance variety, are going to pop up, but for the most part, the answers to those problems have to come from within. Yes, there’s the occasional player who gets designated for assignment who deserves consideration, but otherwise teams will either lean on the depth they’ve spent much of the year trying to establish or curse the risks they took in terms of depth in order to improve their big league roster. Here are the depth situations for the American League playoff contenders, with the National League to follow tomorrow.

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays
Strengths: The Rays bolt together pitching staffs as well as any team in baseball, and there are plenty more pieces available to them at Triple-A Durham should the need arise. They load up on pitch-data darlings while also developing plenty from within, and the result has been the best record in the International League, with their staff generating a team-wide strikeout rate of over 28%. With five current Durham pitchers already on the 40-man roster, managing innings down the stretch shouldn’t be an issue, be it for need or just for the purposes of keeping players fresh. In terms of position players, Vidal Bruján continues to slot in all over the diamond; his ability to play six positions makes him the most likely hitter to be called up. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley follow up on a recent observation about a baseball-related line in Twilight, then banter about petards, Ben’s latest trip to see Shohei Ohtani at Yankee Stadium, Tyler Gilbert’s improbable no-hitter, the playoff hopes of the Padres, Reds, and Giants (and reshuffling in the NL East and AL East), the lows and highs of heckling, the Rockies’ historic home-road splits, Michael Schur adapting Field of Dreams for Peacock and the near future of baseball TV shows, Carter Stewart making his NPB debut and Kumar Rocker’s future, whether John Olerud would be a two-way player today, and Joey Votto’s revamped plate approach, plus a postscript on fun facts about sequences of wins and losses.

Audio intro: Chip Taylor, "Same Ol’ Story"
Audio outro: The Beach Boys, "Heads You Win–Tails I Lose"

Link to Davis catch
Link to Cole’s reaction to Ohtani
Link to Lindsey’s Gallo tweet
Link to article on seats moving farther from the field
Link to Ben on Gilbert’s no-hitter
Link to Twitter thread about man shouting “Dinger”
Link to Neil Paine on the Coors Field hangover effect
Link to Nick Groke on the Coors Field hangover effect
Link to all-time team home/road splits data
Link to xkcd comic about 2020
Link to story on Schur and Field of Dreams
Link to Schur EW episode
Link to story on Offerman and A League of Their Own
Link to story on Offerman’s Field of Dreams critiques
Link to stream Stove League
Link to Jim Allen on Stewart and Rocker
Link to box score from Stewart’s NPB debut
Link to ESPN on Olerud as a two-way player
Link to list of John Olerud Award winners
Link to first page of 1990 Olerud article
Link to second page of 1990 Olerud article
Link to Mike Petriello on Tatis’s position switch
Link to FanGraphs post on Tatis as an outfielder
Link to Ben on the rise of multiposition players
Link to Verducci on Votto
Link to Vieira’s record-breaking pitch
Link to win-loss sequence data

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