It’s a special episode of the podcast, as we eschew the usual format to spend more than two-and-a-half hours previewing the 2021 MLB Draft, which begins Sunday evening. For this episode, I am joined by our very own well-connected draft guru, Eric Longenhagen, as we discuss the story lines to watch for and what might happen in the first round and beyond. In between our two discussions, we are joined by four staples of draft media for a series of quick-hit interviews during which each answers three questions from Twitter and, for those appearing on television this weekend, discusses their suit and tie choices. In order, our guests are:

• Jim Callis (MLB Pipeline)
• Keith Law (The Athletic)
• Carlos Collazo (Baseball America)
• Kiley McDaniel (ESPN)

It’s a whole lot of draft talk and little else, apart from a couple of tangents on Rory Scovel and the town of Magnolia, Arkansas. The podcast will return to its regularly scheduled format next week.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Dead.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 930

This week on FanGraphs Audio, we talk to a pair of scribes about the Chicago baseball scene before digging into the upcoming draft.

• At the top of the show, David Laurila welcomes Bruce Miles and Mark Gonzales to discuss their many years of covering the Cubs, White Sox, and Chicago sports more generally. The trio discuss the reputations surrounding the fans of the two teams, as well as their differences in managers and owners. Bruce and Mark also share stories of covering particularly memorable managers like Lou Piniella, Ozzie Guillen, and Joe Maddon. They also talk about the great on-air talent covering the Cubs and White Sox right now, as well as what it’s like to be confronted by players who you wrote about critically. [2:36]
• After that, Ben Clemens is joined by Kevin Goldstein to discuss the amateur draft, which begins Sunday. Kevin recently wrote about what goes on in draft rooms and shares his insight into the all-hands-on-deck chaos teams experience this time of year. Ben and Kevin also discuss courtesy picks, the importance of the defensive spectrum for a player’s future, and how a baseball draft is about both talent and value. The duo also touch on this week’s episode of Chin Music, which features plenty of additional draft content and experts. [35:09]

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Let’s check in on the farm system rankings before the draft. I’m going to begin by pointing readers to a few useful resources. First and most importantly, here is a primer to remind you of the features of the rankings and here is Craig Edwards’ research on prospect valuation that helped inform our rankings methodology. Readers should consider the dollar amounts as an approximation of what the player might receive were they exposed to the open market, which in addition to acting as a filter that aids in our analysis of trades featuring prospect where money also changes hands, is also an illustration of the gap between what minor leaguers earn and what they’re “worth” to their organizations.

Next I’ll note that the “2021 Updated” section of The Board is now live. As players are added to (via the draft or trade) or subtracted from (via trade or graduation) an organization, the Farm Rankings associated with those teams will also update automatically. You may want to follow the FanGraphs Prospects Twitter account, which I typically use to tweet Board updates when players are added, subtracted, or move within the Future Value tiers. If you avoid Twitter because it crosses the wires of your brain and tears at our social fabric, you can simply access the feed on the Prospects Homepage. Just scroll down a little bit; it’s on the right. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the 10th anniversary of Mike Trout’s promotion to the majors, Rey Ordóñez and other players with high highlights-to-value ratios, opting against an Albert Pujols pun, MLB wisely forgoing the humidor for the Home Run Derby, and a quibble with the Derby bracket, then follow up on a discussion of mid-inning coaching visits for hitters and answer listener emails about the value of an above-average broadcast crew, letting All-Stars wear a special patch on their regular jerseys, how baseball would be different in a multiverse scenario, the differing levels of outrage that resulted from MLB’s assorted cheating scandals, and when rooting for individual players crosses over into rooting for teams.

Audio intro: Earlimart, "10 Years"
Audio outro: The Big Bopper, "Bopper’s Boogie Woogie"

Link to MLB.com on Trout’s 10-year anniversary
Link to Ben on Trout’s rookie year
Link to Michael Baumann on Lindor and the Mariners
Link to Ordóñez defensive highlights video
Link to story on Vieira’s debut
Link to story on the humidor and the Derby
Link to FanGraphs TV broadcaster crowdsourcing
Link to FanGraphs radio broadcaster crowdsourcing

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We probably don’t write enough about the Giants. That’s not to say that we don’t write about the Giants here — we do, quite frequently. Back in May, Kevin Goldstein looked into their complicated future. Jake Mailhot and Dan Szymborski wrote about the starters. Jay Jaffe and Luke Hooper talked veteran hitters.

So yes, we write about the Giants quite a bit here. But to my eyes, it’s still not enough. This team is the biggest surprise in baseball this year. We’re nearly to the All-Star break, and they’re leading the NL West, the toughest division in baseball. All those articles above focused on Giants exceeding expectations, but I’m more interested in another group: the bullpen, which has been one of the better units in baseball despite a pedigree that could best be described as mixed.

This isn’t a case of spending money and trading players to assemble a monster bullpen. It isn’t a case of prioritizing relievers in the draft and getting it done that way. It’s a motley crew of arms that have turned into far more than we expected — we pegged them 18th in our preseason positional power rankings, and they’ve DFA’ed the player we pegged for the most WAR. This group feels like it came from a script, so let’s treat this like a heist movie and assemble the squad. Read the rest of this entry »

At the outset of the season, the Dodgers were forecast for a major league-high 100 wins thanks to their incredible depth, which included eight plausible candidates for their starting rotation. Thanks to a recent surge, 100 wins remains a realistic target — their .609 winning percentage puts them on pace for 99, and our updated projections forecast them for 98 — but that herd of starters has dwindled due to injuries and other matters. On Wednesday, that herd got even smaller, as the team placed Clayton Kershaw on the 10-day injured list due to a bout of inflammation in his left forearm.

According to manager Dave Roberts, Kershaw “felt something in the elbow” while playing catch earlier this week, but beyond that, there’s no indication as to the severity of his injury, or his prognosis. He’ll undergo an MRI and other tests after the team returns to Los Angeles for its weekend series with the Diamondbacks. With less than a week until the All-Star break, the timing of the move is such that he might only miss one start and would be eligible to return to action on Saturday, July 17.

That said, while this is the sixth season in a row that the three-time Cy Young winner has landed on the injured list, it’s the first time he’s been sidelined for an injury involving his forearm or elbow, and if he’s suffered a strain or a sprain — gulp — he could miss substantial time. Only last season, when he was scratched on Opening Day for a bout of lower back stiffness, has Kershaw returned from the IL as soon as he was eligible:

The 33-year-old Kershaw has pitched well this season, posting a 3.39 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 106.1 innings and lasting at least six innings in 14 of his 18 starts. His FIP, 30.1% strikeout rate, and 25.6% strikeout-walk differential are all his best marks since 2016, respectively ranking sixth, ninth, and third in the NL; he’s also third in walk rate (4.5%). Even so, he was bypassed for a spot on the NL All-Star team, along with every other Dodgers pitcher, despite the team’s NL-low 3.21 ERA and its third-ranked 3.63 FIP. That could change as replacements are announced; Jacob deGrom, for example, has said he will decline his invitation in favor of resting his body and spending time with his family.

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This is the June edition of my monthly column, in which I recap what’s been going on in the Korean Baseball Organization on both a league- and team-wide scale. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments or reach out to me via Twitter. Also, don’t forget to check out our expanded KBO stats offering. Without further ado, let’s talk some KBO.

Standings

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Devlin Granberg is an under-the-radar prospect enjoying a breakout season. Boston’s sixth-round pick in 2018 out of Dallas Baptist University, the 25-year-old first baseman/outfielder — unranked on our 2021 Red Sox Top Prospects list — is slashing .315/.379/.573 between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. Swinging from the right side, the Hudson, Colorado native has slugged eight home runs while putting up a healthy 155 wRC+.

Granberg talked hitting prior to a recent game at Portland’s Hadlock Field.

———

David Laurila: How much have you changed since coming to pro ball?

Devlin Granberg: “I’ve had a very similar swing since probably my sophomore year in college. I’ve got a very immobile body — I have tight hips and tight shoulders — but that helps me stay more consistent. It’s kind of what has allowed me to stay with a very similar swing.

“I think the biggest change for me has been the routine. It’s the same thing every single day, whereas in college you’re able to split it up. [College] is similar day-to-day, sure, but you also have different midweek games and practices, plus you get days off. Here, you have to get into a good routine and put yourself in the same state of mind each day in order to hit 95 [mph], or whatever it is the minor leagues throws at you.”

Laurila: Is a strict routine ever a negative? For instance, if you’re scuffling at the plate and doing the same thing day after day…

Granberg: “That’s actually one thing I learned this offseason. In my routine, I have different routines — I have two or three different drill sets that I do in the cage, and I never do the same thing on repeated days. Does that make sense? So, back-to-back days, I never do things exactly the same. I started implementing that in quarantine and I think it’s actually helped me stay a little bit more consistent. I think you have to keep the body guessing. If you stick to the same routine over and over, at some point the body is going to compensate, and then it’s going to overcompensate.

“A routine that is very positive could be maybe neutral, or maybe slightly negative, if you continuously do it every single day. That’s why I try to keep it fresh and mix it up. I’ll go BP, machine work, different things like that.”

Laurila: What was your routine today? Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time as foretold has arrived.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: So prepare those complaints that people are asking questions about a topic you do not want them to.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky, but if you *really* like someone, it can be worth the risk. I dont’ think a hard/fast always/good-always/bad thing works

12:05

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks is certainly a possibility, but the Cubs may not want to trade him at a low point in his value. I do think the Dodgers will pick up a pitcher of course.

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