When the postseason began, a rematch of the 2020 National League Championship Series only had about a 21% chance of happening, according to our Playoff Odds. But after some particularly unlikely occurrences — not just the lower seeds advancing in the Division Series — here we are. Freddie Freeman became the first lefty to hit a homer off Josh Hader in nearly 13 months, and the first to do so on a slider in more than two years, while lifting the Braves past the Brewers in Game 4. The Dodgers won the Wild Card game via a walkoff home run by a slumping Chris Taylor and then eked out a narrow victory over the 107-win Giants in similarly heart-stopping fashion, with the winning hit in Thursday night’s Game 5 delivered by Cody Bellinger on the heels of a nightmare season. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Unlike last year, this time around the Braves will have home-field advantage despite winning 18 fewer regular season games than the Dodgers, because the current playoff format deals a stiff penalty to teams sneaking into the postseason via the Wild Card door. Atlanta’s advantage could be significant at some point in the series, particularly if it goes past five games, but it’s worth noting the Braves went just 42-38 at home, tying the Marlins for the NL’s 10th-highest win total in that split; meanwhile, their 46-35 road record ranked fourth in the NL. The Dodgers had the best home record (58-23) and third-best road record (48-33), and just won an elimination game (and two of their three Division Series games) in enemy territory. The talent gap between the two teams probably matters more than the venue in which they meet, though in a short series… you know the rest. Read the rest of this entry »

Every now and then, something happens in a major league game that arouses my interest as a baseball physicist. In the sixth inning of the recent American League Wild Card game, the Red Sox were up 3-1. With Aaron Judge on first and one out, Giancarlo Stanton hit a laser of a shot that bounced high off the left-center field wall at Fenway, barely missing a home run. As it happened, Judge was thrown out at home plate, while Stanton took second on the throw. It was truly a game-changing play. But what I really want to talk about is Stanton’s shot, particularly the distance the ball would have gone had it reached field level unobstructed. That is the usual meaning attached to “home run distance.” Although not normally done, I want to apply it to a single.

As it turns out, there is a wealth of data available that allows us to figure this out. First, we know the Statcast measurement of the launch conditions:

The most important of these parameters, exit velocity and launch angle, are publicly available. Of lesser importance to the calculation are the spray angle, spin rate, and spin axis. Note that the ball is hit very hard and, typical of Stanton, at a somewhat low launch angle. For both those reasons, the spin rate is not particularly large and the spin axis indicates nearly perfect backspin (i.e., very little sidespin). Note also that the small negative spray angle means the ball was hit slightly to the left-field side of center. Read the rest of this entry »

The postseason continues, as does Chin Music, and even though we had a last-second (and perfectly understandable) guest cancellation, I am joined by Steven Goldman of The Infinite Inning podcast and Baseball Prospectus for more than two hours of baseball talk and other stuff. We begin by reviewing the three Division Series that have ended, as well as the one that hadn’t at the time of recording, followed by a philosophical discussion on what defines a successful season. Then it’s your emails on why catchers don’t hit, what base coaches actually do, as well as a long discussion about my personal feelings (both good and bad) when watching the Houston Astros, and how I wish people understood that they don’t need to avoid the subject with me. We finish by catching up with Steven before discussing the darkest of dark comedies, 1971’s Little Murders.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Kowloon Walled City.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 944

This week on FanGraphs Audio, we go over the first round of the playoffs before looking ahead to both Championship Series.

• To begin the program, David Laurila welcomes Bill Koch of The Providence Journal to talk about Boston’s ALDS win over the Rays. Not many expected the team’s season to go this way, but the return of Chris Sale and a continually impressive Garrett Whitlock have the Fenway faithful loud and ready for more October baseball. David and Bill talk about that weird off-the-wall play in Game 4, the effects of baseball’s competitive balance on October, and how the Red Sox will match up against a perennially competitive Houston club in the ALCS. [2:23]
• After that, Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski get together to banter about the other playoff matchups. We’ve seen some intense rivalries play out in exciting ways so far, while other so-called feuds seem weirdly one-sided or manufactured. Ben and Dan discuss the Brewers’ offensive woes (and who their main rival is), the news of Lance McCullers Jr.’s questionable availability for the ALCS, Dan being ejected as a mouthy little-leaguer, and more. [29:23]

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A pizza stain on the new Armani. A chocolate chip cookie, fresh out of the oven, adorned with nine chips and one cat droplet. The middle five wishes of Elliot Richards. Game 5 of the 2021 NLDS.

The Dodgers won 2-1 in as tense and dramatic a contest as we’ve seen all year, one that ended with an inexplicable call from first base umpire Gabe Morales on Wilmer Flores’ check swing. For Los Angeles, it’s a fifth trip to the NLCS in six seasons, a triumph only made sweeter by the circumstances. In vanquishing their rivals, the Dodgers get the last laugh in a brilliantly played season series. Tonight’s game is vindication for Dave Roberts and his lineup choices, redemption for Cody Bellinger, and another line on Hall of Famer Max Scherzer’s remarkable resume. Fans of all stripes were treated to an exquisite contest in nearly every respect.

But like most neutrals, that last pitch is stuck in my craw. With two outs, Kris Bryant on first, and Flores at the plate, Scherzer fired a 1-2 slider. Flores started his swing but appeared to check it well in advance of the imaginary and arbitrary breaking point at which a take (usually!) becomes a swinging strike:

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Meg Rowley is joined by guest co-host Mike Petriello of MLB.com. They discuss Mike’s role in the booth as a part of ESPN’s Statcast broadcasts, how what is affectionately referred to as the Nerdcast got started, how Mike prepares for games, how he balances being analytics-heavy while still appealing to a broad audience, how the Nerdcast has evolved along with Statcast, what makes for a fun booth, how he works with Jason Benetti and Eduardo Perez, and what might come next for the Nerdcast as more traditional broadcasts become more statistically savvy. Then they briefly contemplate the role of the manager in light of the news of Mike Shildt’s firing in St. Louis before turning their attention (31:19) to the Dodgers’ decision to start Corey Knebel as an opener for Game 5 of the NLDS, how the Giants might counter, what they like about Logan Webb, and what each of these teams needs to do to advance to the NLCS. Read the rest of this entry »

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Tonight, there’s only one game in town, as the Giants face the Dodgers in a winner-take-all, NLDS Game 5 slugfest in San Francisco. It’s been billed as a matchup between two borderline Cy Young candidates: Logan Webb, who humbled the Los Angeles lineup in the first game of the series, and Julio Urías, who started Game 2 for the Dodgers after a superlative 2021 season. Only, nope:

Corey Knebel will start Game 5 tonight.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 14, 2021

This isn’t going to be a lengthy discussion of whether openers make sense. Teams clearly like the tactic as a way to fill innings, but almost never in front of a pitcher as good as Urías. I’m interested in what the Giants will do to counter it, and how that counter will determine Urías’s matchups.

When he took the mound last Saturday, the Giants set up like so:

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