Joey Votto was on my mind even before I read The Athletic’s latest dive into the Reds first baseman’s singular personality. Chess devotee? Aldous Huxley reader? Mop enthusiast? Add it all to the Hall of Fame plaque alongside the MVP award, six All-Star appearances, and seven on-base percentage leads.

It wasn’t Votto’s quirks that were on my mind, however, so much as it was his lagging production. When he spoke of a changed approach to The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans and Eno Sarris back in February, my ears perked up, and I made a mental note to track his progress.

Which, yikes. Through Monday, the 37-year-old first baseman was hitting .171/.209/.244 for a 24 wRC+, with a lone homer in 43 plate appearances representing his only extra-base hit. Keep hitting like that and he might wind up tending to a @JoeyMoppo Instagram account (please give us a @JoeyMoppo Instagram account) while somebody else plays first base. I kid, of course, but even in the season’s first two weeks, before any individual statistics have begun to stabilize, a 24 wRC+ isn’t where anyone want to be.

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There might be no player in baseball who is more fun to watch or more talented than Shohei Ohtani. On Tuesday, he beat out what looked like a routine groundball to shortstop for an infield single, with a sprint speed of 29.5 feet per second. Later that game, he drilled a ball 431 feet for a solo home run — one that left his bat at 108.9 mph, already his 11th batted ball of 105 mph or more this season. That’s all business as usual for the two-way star, even as he recovers from a blister that has kept him from making a start as a pitcher since April 4.

That April 4 outing, though, was truly one-of-a-kind. Ohtani put on a show, starting the game and hitting in the No. 2 hole, becoming just the third pitcher to hit for himself in a game with the DH spot available. Though the feat was unique, Ohtani’s appearance in the lineup as a pitcher was not a surprise. He and the Angels thoroughly discussed the strategy in spring training, and he pitched and hit leadoff in a game on March 21. While it was only spring training, Joe Maddon whipped up the coolest lineup card I have ever seen:

Shohei Ohtani pulls double duty today!

?? 1:10pm PT
? Fox Sports Prime Ticket
? @AngelsRadioKLAA pic.twitter.com/qNXDLAkWqo

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) March 21, 2021

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The latest addition to our RosterResource collection at FanGraphs is the Closer Depth Chart. While it is not quite the finished product yet — we will be adding filters and sorting capability in the near future and also welcome any feedback or suggestions you have — this version has plenty of relevant information on one page.

What information is included?

Many teams either use a closer committee or do not name a closer, leaving us to make assumptions about who their closer is. As such, there are as many as six pitchers listed for each team, as well as any notable relievers on the Injured List or Restricted List. With the information provided, we can make an educated guess about who could get a save chance on a particular day. On the report, you’ll see the following:

• THR: Left (L) or Right (R) handed.
• Projected Role: Closer, Closer Committee, Co-Closer, Setup Man, Middle Reliever, Injured List, Restricted List.
• Pitcher Usage: Last six days of usage, including pitch count, save (Sv), hold (H), blown save (BS), win (W), loss (L), Injured List (IL), Injured/Active (Inj), and Alternate Site/Minors (AAA).
• 2021 Stats: vFA (fastball velocity), vSI (sinker or cutter velocity), appearances, innings pitched, ERA, saves, holds, K/9, and K%.
• Tags (listed next to the player’s name): Unavailable (black square), High Usage Alert (blue square), On The Hot Seat (red square), Reliever On The Rise (green upward pointing arrow).

“Unavailable” means that a pitcher has officially been ruled out of pitching out of the bullpen on that day due to injury, workload, or being named as the “opener” or spot starter.

“High Usage Alert” means that a reliever is coming off a 20-plus pitch day, or pitching on at least two consecutive days or three out of four days. It doesn’t mean that a pitcher has been ruled out for that particular day.

“On The Hot Seat” means that a closer or high-profile setup man could be in danger of being demoted from their current role due to poor performance.

“Reliever On The Rise” means that a pitcher is performing at a high level and is likely moving up the bullpen hierarchy.

How often is the closer depth chart updated?

Updates on projected roles are often made in real-time while games are still in progress. Others are made after an injury or a bullpen-related comment by a manager.

Tags and bullpen usage are updated each morning before any games are played.

What Additions Will Be Made?

Filters and sorting capability are the main features we plan to add in the near future. This will allow readers to view only closers or “Relievers On The Rise,” for example, or remove all closers with a “High Usage Alert.” We will also be adding an extra column with each team’s opponent for that day.

Anything else we add or change will be a result of reader feedback and suggestions. Please use the comment section to let us know what you like or dislike about the Closer Depth Chart, and what other information you’d like to see.

If you felt like you hadn’t gotten enough fastball velocity analysis at FanGraphs in the past week, do I have a treat for you! Last week, Kevin Goldstein expounded on the importance of the shape of a fastball in determining its effectiveness, making it clear that velocity is the driving factor in evaluating a fastball, but that deviating from a “normal shape” (interpreted as an inch of ride for every inch of run) can lead to missing more barrels. Devan Fink, meanwhile, showed that fastball velocities have increased across the league to start the year, which is especially striking since fastball velocities are usually at their nadir in April. Devan also highlighted pitchers who have seen an especially large bump. Finally, on Friday, Jake Mailhot took a look at Chris Paddack’s first start with a focus on the righty’s fastball after a disappointing 2020 season.

I recommend reading all those pieces, if you haven’t already. Kevin and Jake give credence to the idea that fastball shape is an essential factor in a good fastball. But I want to focus on Devan’s article on fastball velocity and how it seems to be increasing again in 2021, as it has every season since 2008. One can surmise that this is a product of pitchers acknowledging the importance of velocity (thus training with gains in mind) and teams giving more innings to pitchers who, by and large, throw harder. Velocity obviously matters, but how much? Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Justin Choi published an examination of the new ball. The results were — well, you should read it for yourself, but they were muddled, to say the least. Home runs are down! Exit velocity is up! Liners got better, fly balls got worse. It’s enough to make you wonder whether we’ll ever know the answer. It’s also catnip to analysts, and so today I’d like to present some supplemental evidence that only makes me more confused.

There were two key conflicting findings in Justin’s research. First: home runs are down, and fly balls aren’t carrying as far, on average, as they did last year. Second, overall exit velocity is up league-wide, whether you care about broad averages or the hardest-struck balls. The two effects — harder hits, less carry — benefit line drives over fly balls, because line drives both spend less time in the air and depend less on distance for their value.

I wasn’t really sure what to make of the fact that fly balls are carrying less. There are so many confounding factors — weather, new humidors, angle, stadiums, the list goes on and on — that I don’t think I’ll ever be able to disambiguate them all, but I took a crack at it. Read the rest of this entry »

Ross Stripling was the featured guest on episode 905 of FanGraphs Audio, and something he said after we finished recording prompted what you’re about to read. Stripling mentioned that he could have spent the entire segment talking about the impact Clayton Kershaw — his Los Angeles Dodgers teammate from 2016-20 — has had on his career. That bug in my ear, I made it a point to circle back to the 31-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander to explore that subject for print.

We ended up covering more than just that. Along with the matter at hand, Stripling delved into what makes Kershaw Kershaw.

First things first.

“I wouldn’t have had the success that I’ve had in the big leagues if it wasn’t for Clayton’s mentorship,” said Stripling, who has a 3.85 ERA and a 3.91 FIP over 444-and-two-thirds career innings. “I met him in the spring of 2014 — that was my first big-league camp — but ended up tearing my UCL and didn’t get to interact with him nearly as much as I wanted to. But he’s a North Texas guy — Highland Park — and I’m from South Lake. We’re 20 minutes apart, so I knew everything about him.”

That includes Kershaw having committed to Texas A&M, only to sign with the Dodgers out of high school in 2006. Stripling chose a different route. He spent four years at A&M, earned a finance degree, and was drafted and signed by the Dodgers in 2012. It was four years later that Stripling’s baseball education truly began to take root. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs dropped their third straight game on Monday night in Milwaukee to fall to 4–6, and even that record feels like a miracle for them. Their crew of low-velo/command types in the rotation haven’t performed well, and the offense has been a non-factor with a miserable .164/.264/.321 line in 312 plate appearances; Chicago ranks last in baseball in all three triple-slash categories. Of the regular starters, just three are over the Mendoza line, only three have an on-base percentage over .300, and only three are slugging over .300. The end result is fewer than three runs per game, and even in a wide-open NL Central, that is just not going to cut it.

There are numerous rough starts to dissect on the North Side. But I want to focus on Javier Báez’s continued struggles, in terms of both approach and contact ability, and a future that grows cloudier by the game.

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At 4-6, with losses in two straight series, the Cubs are off to a sluggish start, but one player who has impressed thus far has been closer Craig Kimbrel. After struggling for the better part of his first two seasons in the Windy City, he has not only demonstrated dominant form in the early going, he’s actually built upon a rebound that began in the middle of last season, one that suggests his recovery is no passing matter.

Kimbrel, who last pitched on April 8, when he recorded a five-out save against the Pirates — his first outing of more than three outs since Game 3 of the 2018 World Series — has retired all 14 batters he’s faced this season, nine via strikeouts, including the first five batters he faced in the new year. What’s more, he’s retired 24 in a row dating back to last September 12, and 35 out of 38 going back to the start of last September, 22 (57.8%) via strikeouts. In that span, he hasn’t walked a single hitter or given up an extra-base hit, meaning that he’s held batters to an .079/.079/.079 line, an 83.0 mph average exit velocity, just one hard-hit ball (95.0 mph or greater), and not a single barrel. That’ll do.

In other words, Craig Kimbrel is back.

Once the game’s most dominant closer, Kimbrel made seven All-Star teams while pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 1.96 FIP with a 41.6% strikeout rate from 2010-18, making seven All-Star teams along the way. He wasn’t as dominant in his time with the Padres (2015) or Red Sox (2016-18) as he’d been with the Braves, but he did help Boston win a World Series in the last of those seasons.

Though he saved 42 games in 2018, his highest total since being traded by the Braves, Kimbrel set career highs in home run rate (1.01 per nine) and FIP (3.13) that season, and then was scored upon in his first four postseason appearances — apparently because he was tipping his pitches — before righting the ship. Read the rest of this entry »

Just two months ago, Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a mammoth contract that will keep him in San Diego through 2034. He entered the 2021 season as arguably the most hyped player in the majors. We all breathed a collective sigh of relief when, after exiting a spring training game with shoulder discomfort, Tatis was cleared to resume play just a day later. Sadly, though, one of the game’s biggest stars was sidelined last week with a partial shoulder dislocation after taking a hearty swing at the plate.

On the heels of last year’s shortened season, fans and teams braced themselves for what they worried might be a bad year for player injuries. The season is entering just its second full week of action, but several notable players have already hit the Injured List, and this doesn’t even count the spring training losses of Eloy Jiménez, Kirby Yates, or George Springer:

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It’s always at the end of the sixth inning that it starts to feel real, that history begins to creep in at the edges, making its way onto the field of view, even as you might try to push it out. The way the game is arranged in sets of three, radiating outward, three into three into nine; when you’ve completed six, you’ve gone through nine twice, with nine more to go. Now comes the third time through the order, when you’ve held it this close. Now comes the part of the game that, especially in our era, it is rare for a starting pitcher to see. Through six, onto the seventh: the power to continue resting on one person’s rapidly fatiguing shoulders.

There have already been several no-hitters through six this season. Trevor Bauer gave up four runs in the seventh. Corbin Burnes and José Berríos matched each other out-for-out through six; Burnes opened the seventh by giving up a homer, and Berríos’ grip loosened in the eighth. Joe Musgrove, on Friday, through six at Globe Life Field, having given the Rangers nothing outside one errant pitch in the fourth; the Padres, with 52 years behind them, the only team never to see one of their own pitchers throw a no-hitter. Through six, those dark, towering stadium walls blocking out the fading sky. This strange hour is when things become unsettled; the precipice of possibility grows closer. You can just see over the edge, almost reach it. Twice, all nine batters have been retired. Nine more to go.

***

On a website that looks like it hasn’t had a design update for the last decade, there’s a news item from 2010 accompanied by a photo: on the right, Adrián González, wearing those bland, bygone navy Padres jerseys, holding a plaque and smiling; on the left, the vice president of the San Diego Hall of Champions. Towering above them both is a young man in the middle, also holding a plaque, wearing a letterman jacket and an awkward smile. They are all on the field at Petco Park, “Grossmont High senior JOE MUSGROVE continues to make headlines wherever he pitches,” the news item reads.

The Grossmont High baseball team is called the Foothillers — the ‘Hillers, for short. Located in El Cajon, in San Diego County, the program has an impressive track record when it comes to developing major-league talent. Steven Brault of the Pirates played there; so did Barry Zito, briefly, but he transferred. Joe Musgrove, as a sophomore, didn’t make much of a mark. He had only started pitching the year before, and he didn’t spend long on the varsity team before being demoted. Read the rest of this entry »