On Monday, I examined the new baseball’s impact on April home run totals. In sum, home runs were down in April 2021 compared to April 2019, with the home run per batted ball rate dropping by roughly 0.45 percentage points, a figure that would result in about an 8% decrease in home runs from ’19 to ’21, under the assumption that hitters receive roughly equal plate appearances in each season. (Due to seven-inning doubleheaders and the new extra inning rules, though, that won’t happen, but it’s still good to compare apples-to-apples to estimate the impact.)

After sharing the article on Twitter, I received an interesting question that I felt merited further discussion: How many of those now-non-homers turn into hits versus outs? That is a fascinating question because it potentially gets to the heart of why MLB dejuiced the baseballs in the first place. Baseball didn’t want to eliminate offense, per se; they just wanted to alter how it is generated, with more balls put into play rather than what they perceived as a recent over-reliance on the long ball. In short, if all of those newly-created non-homers are now other types of hits, then dejuicing the baseball might’ve actually had the impact MLB wanted. If they are now outs, then it’s just going to make life that much harder for batters.

Given the majors’ historically-low batting average this season — once again, I’ll point you to Brendan Gawlowski’s excellent piece on the matter — you can likely guess what happened: Outs are up. Read the rest of this entry »

Ethan Lindow is low profile at this point in his career. A fifth-round pick four years ago, the 22-year-old southpaw sits humbly at No. 25 on our Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects list. His lack of stand-up-and-take-notice stuff is largely responsible for his modest ranking. Atypical in an age of high velocity and nasty benders, Lindow is a command artist who attacks hitters with a ho-hum heater and a top-shelf changeup.

The lack of buzz belies his success at the lower levels of the minors. In 211.1 professional innings, Lindow has chewed up batters to the tune of a 2.73 ERA while allowing just 176 hits and 54 free passes. Moreover, the Locust Grove, Georgia native’s ledger includes 220 strikeouts, a noteworthy number given his finesse identity.

A former Phillies prospect now pitching for the Oakland A’s is a comp that came to mind when I spoke to Lindow shortly before he made his Double-A debut with the Reading Fightin Phils. It turned out that it’s someone he’s considered himself.

“He’s a guy I kind of always looked at,” Lindow said of Cole Irvin. “I’d be like, ‘Man, that’s a guy I’d compare myself to.’ I’ve just always been one of those crafty lefties. None of my numbers are going to light up the boards, so I go off my command and movement, and let my defense work.” Read the rest of this entry »

Within the first Dodgers-Cubs game of Tuesday’s doubleheader was one of the worst-executed plays at the plate that I’ve ever seen in a major-league game.

Let’s not even get into the fact that it was the bottom of the third and Clayton Kershaw had given up four runs in the first inning — after which he left the game, in the shortest start of his career. Here, Kyle Hendricks was up to the plate. Not a pitcher known for his slugging capabilities. There were two out, and Dennis Santana was in an ideal position to strand the two baserunners he had allowed.

Instead, he spiked a pitch in front of home plate. It careened off Will Smith’s shin pad, off into oblivion. Another run came scampering home, and as it did, Smith attempted to throw Santana the ball to make a tag. He did this as he was falling backward, twisting on one leg, and it bounced in the dirt in front of Santana, who was not at all ready to make a play at home. It caromed off his leg, over toward the backstop. Santana tried to avoid the obstacle of the runner, but by the time he got to the ball, the second runner had already scored, and there was nobody there to make an attempt at tagging him out. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 921

On this week’s show, we get fun perspectives from a reporter and a former player before an on-the-ground report from the Arizona ballfields.

• In the first half, David Laurila is joined by Marly Rivera, writer and broadcaster for ESPN, and Lars Anderson, former major leaguer, current music producer, and co-founder of Birdman Bats. The trio discuss Yankee Stadium’s reaction to the return of the Astros, Boston’s reaction to the return of Alex Cora, and how managers like him and Torey Lovullo make you want to play for them. Marly and Lars each share Manny Ramirez and Mariano Rivera anecdotes, before Lars discusses his experience playing in Japan and Australia. Finally, they offer their own professional insights into a few serious clubhouse matters. [2:42]
• After that, Eric Longenhagen welcomes Bill Mitchell of Baseball America back to the show. Eric and Bill recently wrapped up their look at minor league spring training, and getting back to field was nice. The duo discuss some of the best players they have seen recently, including A’s prospect Tyler Soderstrom (and how to pronounce his name). Eric and Bill also go over the effects of so many minor league players having been out of game action for so long, as well as the impressive velocity spikes they’ve seen seemingly across the board. [42:54]

Read the rest of this entry »

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Chin Music is back on schedule. The traveling co-host chair stays put in New York as the sole proprietor of the Joe Sheehan Newsletter (that would be Joe Sheehan) joins me for a rousing discussion of baseball and, of course, other things. We begin by discussing the breaking news of Albert Pujols‘ release, John Means‘ no-no, parity in the standings and whether the San Francisco Giants are real. Sadly, we had a guest, an interview took place, and it was wonderful, but I regret to inform you that technical issues took it all away from us. The internet can be cruel sometimes. All is explained before the show starts. We finish up with emails on minor league assignments, the perks of working for a team, and how to get into baseball media, before delving into Joe’s career path and the wonderfully relaxing Pokemon Snap. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening. Note: We had some audio issues with Joe, especially in the first segment; we did our best with it.

Music by Nice Ghost.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Byron Buxton and the Twins, discuss the Angels designating Albert Pujols for assignment, and answer listener emails about whether to accept a scenario where one’s team always finishes .500 but one also gets to enjoy the career of a generational player, pitchers accepting automatic strikeouts, the best way for catchers to call for appeals on check swings, and appreciating the community of baseball as much as or more so than the sport itself, plus a Stat Blast about Glenn Davis and the most lopsided trades of all time.

Audio intro: British Sea Power, "Albert’s Eyes"
Audio outro: Shocking Blue, "Never Release the One You Love"

Link to Rosenthal on injuries in 2021
Link to Sam in 2012 on Pujols
Link to Ben in 2017 on Ohtani and Pujols
Link to data on most hits above .300
Link to Ben on retirement gifts
Link to Meg on retirement gifts
Link to interview with LSU pitcher
Link to Ben on checked swings
Link to Stat Blast data on lopsided trades
Link to Ardaya on Pujols
Link to Rosenthal on Pujols

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Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of thoughts after another week of college baseball and the return of minor league play. Remember, prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Kevin’s Notes

After nearly 600 days without them, it was sure nice to have minor league boxscores. It was also overwhelming in terms of thinking about who to highlight for today’s notebook. During a lunchtime call with Eric Longenhagen, we probably discussed 40 or 50 guys. To celebrate the long-awaited return of minor league baseball, I’ll push the draft aside for a week and talk about some prospects with real numbers next to their names for the first time in over a year. Instead of just finding five players, I decided to focus on a quintet of catchers who had big starts to the season. Catching prospects fascinate me as it’s the toughest position to find. There’s aren’t 30 legitimate starting catchers in baseball, but there are 30 teams, so while the bar is ridiculous on a defensive level, the necessary production in terms of offense is nowhere near that of other positions. Here are five real prospects — some big names, some sleepers — who have a shot at becoming that everyday guy.

Francisco Álvarez, C, New York Mets (Low-A St. Lucie)

Álvarez put up a .916 OPS in his 2019 stateside debut as a 17-year-old, and his 2021 is off to an impressive start. Eric ranked Álvarez as the best prospect in the Mets system this spring, and I support that ranking whole heartedly. Famous in the international community since his early teens, Álvarez commanded a $2.7 million bonus, and it’s easy to see why as there is the potential for the Venezuelan product to be an plus contributor both at the plate and behind it. He’s tightened up his meaty frame over the past year, which gives him good mobility in terms of block and receiving to go with a plus arm. With a bat in his hands, he has showcased an impressive approach for a teenager to go with real power that projects for 20-plus home runs annually when all is said and done. He’s not only the Mets’ best prospect, he’s on of the best catching prospects in all of baseball, a player who has the potential to be ready somewhere around the end of James McCann’s four-year deal. Read the rest of this entry »

In Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have two of the game’s most eminently watchable players. Thanks to the latter’s return to the mound in some semblance of full health, the team began the season with a reasonable amount of optimism for breaking its streak of six straight seasons outside the playoffs and five with a sub-.500 record, centered around the promise of an improved rotation. On the eve of Opening Day, their 39.5% Playoff Odds were as high as they’ve been at that point since at least 2016. Yet they’re off to just a 13-16 start, and that rotation, which was lit for a 5.52 ERA last season and a 5.64 ERA in 2019, owns an AL-worst 5.33 mark. Ohtani’s starts aside, they’re not exactly must-see TV.

With the return of Ohtani after a season in which he was limited to two nasty, brutish and short appearances due to a flexor strain, the Angels opted to go with a six-man rotation to as not to overtax any of their starters as they ramped up to 162 games from last year’s 60. Joining Ohtani were holdovers Dylan Bundy, Griffin Canning, and Andrew Heaney, a trio that by and large pitched well for the team in 2020, making either 11 or 12 starts and finishing under 100 in ERA- and FIP- across the board save for Heaney’s 101 ERA-.

Joining the bunch were free agent Jose Quintana and trade acquisition Alex Cobb, who at the very least looked like upgrades on Julio Teheran and Patrick Sandoval, both of whom were dreadful last year. Quintana was limited to 10 innings in his final year with the Cubs due to thumb and lat injuries but from 2013-19 was a reliable workhorse who averaged 193 innings and 3.8 WAR. Cobb needed to get out of Baltimore in the worst way after yielding 1.86 homers per nine at Camden Yards during his three-season stay. Read the rest of this entry »

Playoff baseball has become something of an expectation on the North Side of Chicago since 2015, but there are good reasons why the Cubs have been somewhat derisively known as the “lovable losers” since the term was first applied to them 1977. For most of their 145 year history, the Cubs have not been worried about their record in October. In fact between 1945 and 1984, they didn’t appear in the postseason at all. Which is why it’s such a remarkable statement to say that the 2021 Cubs got off to one of the worst offensive starts in franchise history. It’s even more perplexing because this season’s offense is mostly made up of the same core of players that won the World Series in 2016 and brought playoff baseball to Wrigley Field in five of the last six seasons.

Twelve games into the season, there was no shortage of pieces about the Cubs’ broken offense. However, those concerns were briefly allayed when the team went on a torrid run, scoring 55 runs in six games. Some fans may have breathed a sigh of relief as the bats came to life, but close observers noticed a pattern. Sahadev Sharma at The Athletic speculated that the Cubs offense was neither historically broken nor magically fixed. He argued the team is trapped in the same boom and bust cycle that allowed the Brewers to chase them down and force a game-163 in 2018. That offensive outage lead then-president of baseball operations Theo Epstein to declare that “our offense broke somewhere along the lines.” It’s the same cycle that saw them get off to a red hot, 13-3 start in the pandemic-shortened season, only to be unable to score against an upstart Marlins squad in the Wild Card Series. So let’s explore what’s changed with this offense since 2016. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday evening, Texas’ Hyeon-Jong Yang made his first career start. While a low pitch count and a fourth-inning jam limited him to 3.1 innings, the southpaw still managed to impress: He struck out eight and walked only one while missing 15 bats on 37 swings. This was just a spot start in place of injured Kohei Arihara, but it was almost certainly good enough to warrant another look sooner rather than later.

Yang didn’t arrive with the same fanfare as fellow KBO transplant Ha-seong Kim. The 33-year-old had to settle for a minor league deal; he didn’t even make the Rangers’ Opening Day roster. Still, he’s a legend back home in South Korea. With two KBO Series titles, an MVP trophy on the mantle, and numerous international accolades there was little left for him to prove in Gwangju, and he understandably wanted to test his mettle at the highest level while he’s still near the peak of his powers.

I watched several of Yang’s starts last season. His overall numbers weren’t particularly impressive, but he looked much better once he shook off some early-season rust and got his best fastball back. As a command-reliant starter with a low-90s heater, above-average fading change, and functional slider, he seemed like a big leaguer, if not an impact one.

Across his first three games in Texas, Yang’s results have been pretty good. In 12 innings, he’s struck out 13 hitters while allowing only two walks and 10 hits. But while his start against the Twins was mostly encouraging, it also revealed some limitations in his skillset and highlighted the difference in competition between the KBO and the major leagues. Read the rest of this entry »