When Carlos Rodón hit Roberto Pérez in the left foot with one out in the ninth inning of Wednesday night’s game, just about everybody watching who wasn’t pulling for Cleveland let out a collective groan. With one errant pitch, the 28-year-old lefty had lost his shot at completing just the 24th perfect game in major league history, and the first since the Mariners’ Felix Hernandez in 2012. He recovered in time to get the final two outs to complete a no-hitter, the second of the young season — not only a pretty cool accomplishment unto itself but an especially impressive one given the injuries and other ups and downs the former number three draft pick has endured in recent years.

Before Rodón even hit Pérez, he’d already done something cool, though, thanks to the tremendous lunge made by José Abreu to tag first base before Josh Naylor reached safely to start the ninth inning.

That out was the 27th in a row collected by Rodón, giving him a “hidden perfect game” across multiple appearances dating back to his April 5 start against the Mariners. In the fifth inning of that game, he bounced back from hitting Ty France on the right foot with a pitch to retire Kyle Seager and Evan White on balls hit to left field, completing five scoreless frames and starting his streak. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

I would imagine that one of the most jarring pitches for a major league batter to face is an extremely slow breaking pitch. Conventional wisdom might suggest the opposite — something like triple-digit heat. But at least a batter knows to expect high-end velocity when he steps to the plate against a given pitcher. A pitch under 70 mph, on the other hand, is rare enough that it can freeze you. Not familiar with the types of pitches I am talking about? Here are a select few.

Since 2015 (i.e., the Statcast era), just 0.3% of all pitches thrown in MLB have been under 70 mph; pitchers today generally live in velocity bands from 10 to 30 mph higher. Being able to slow the ball down to such an extreme degree without tipping off the batter to what is coming is not trivial, and being able to drop these pitches in for strikes takes practice. Taking time in a throwing session to lob lollipops into the strike zone probably seems foolish to many pitchers, especially if they can just throw 95 mph instead.

I understand the roadblocks to throwing slow looping curveballs. But whenever I see a pitcher throw them, they often seem to disarm the batter, who usually doesn’t swing. In that scenario, the worst-case result is often a ball, and if the pitcher can locate the pitch, he can nab a strike with little resistance. And as fastball velocity continues to increase across the league both this year and in seasons past, pitchers are increasingly leaning on breaking balls and offspeed pitches to fool hitters who are geared up for heat. With that in mind, a super-slow curveball could be a useful weapon. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Miami Marlins. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. Each blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report if there were any. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Nick Yorke was among the more intriguing — some might say confounding — picks in the 2020 amateur draft. Selected 17th overall by Boston out of a San Jose high school, the right-handed-hitting infielder wasn’t expected to go in the first round. Moreover, MLB Pipeline didn’t even rank him as a Top-100 draft prospect. Eyebrows were raised throughout the industry when Yorke’s name was announced on Day One.

Red Sox scouts obviously liked what they saw from the sweet-swinging California prepster. They’re convinced that he’s going to hit, and what they saw this spring only enhanced that belief. Yorke not only impressed during simulated games, he stroked a single off of Atlanta Braves southpaw A.J. Minter in his Grapefruit League debut. As Red Sox right-hander Garrett Richards said after watching him in action, “It made me stop in my tracks a little bit, because I had no idea that this kid was that young.”

Yorke, who celebrated his 19th birthday earlier this month, talked hitting — including his offseason sessions with Seattle Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger — midway through spring training.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Nick Yorke: “I see myself as a grinder in the batter’s box. I take every at-bat very seriously. I hate striking out. I hate being beat. And I love hitting. There’s just something about it. You’re having a bad day, so it’s ‘OK, let’s hop in the cage and have some fun.’ I find hitting fun. To think you could change the game with one swing of the bat is exciting to me.”

Laurila: Something I’ve asked a lot of guys over the years is whether they look at hitting as more of an art, or as more of a science. How do you see it?

Yorke: “Ooh, that’s a good question. I see it as more of an art. I think everyone works on their craft, everyone has different feel in the batter’s box, they’re trying to accomplish different things. I mean, I’m not going to go up there and have the same approach as a 6-foot-5, power-hitting lefty first baseman. Everyone has their own thoughts when they’re in the box, so yeah, I would say it’s an art.”

Laurila: A number of hitters have told me “art,” then gone on to talk scientifically about how they approach things… Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s do it again, folks. This week, the co-host chair lands back in Brooklyn as Jay Jaffe makes time to yammer with me for two-plus hours. We start by figuring out how many games the Dodgers will win before discussing how today’s game creates a good environment for no-hitters and watching Jay count to 20. Then we are joined by special guest J.J. Cooper, the executive editor of Baseball America, who gives his reasons for being open-minded about baseball’s experimental rule changes in the minor and independent leagues. From there, it’s the final segment, where we dream about a few injury-free careers and consider an offer to become multi-millionaires before finishing off with British dramas and Fellini films. As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening. Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (chin-music): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Episode 918

This week on FanGraphs Audio, we speak to an award-winning broadcaster and an major league GM while also looking back fondly on Fernandomania.

• To begin the program, David Laurila is joined by Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, broadcaster for the Lansing Lugnuts and author of The Baseball Thesaurus. Jesse talks about his experiences calling live games that he was unable to see with his own eyes, what it was like to grow up a Tigers fan, meeting Ernie Harwell, and some of his favorite prospects to play for the Lugnuts. Finally, David and Jesse share some of their favorite baseballisms [3:32].
• Following that, Jason Martinez and Jay Jaffe get together to recall the legacy of Fernando Valenzuela. Jay recently wrote about Fernandomania, and the pair discuss what it was like to be young baseball fans at such an exciting time in the sport. Valenzuela was incredibly successful while not exactly looking like most other major leaguers, and Jason and Jay discuss the impact that had on the sport and their own fandom. [30:30]
• Finally, David returns to welcome Toronto Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins to the show. The pair talk about the last time they spoke, Atkins’ recent extension, what it’s like to work with Charlie Montoyo, and what the day-to-day life of a GM is like. Atkins also discusses some current Blue Jays players, including Julian Merryweather, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and Nate Pearson, before David asks him about his college thesis on baseball. [56:30]

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Building upon a suite of experimental rule changes for the affiliated minor leagues that Major League Baseball announced in March, the independent Atlantic League has agreed to implement a couple of radical changes to the rulebook this season as well, one involving the pitching distance and the other the designated hitter rule. Via MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, the eight-team league will increase the pitching distance by a foot for the second half of its 120-game season, and will implement a “Double Hook” designated hitter rule, in which a team loses its DH spot after its starting pitcher is removed.

Like several of the experimental rules MLB announced in March — larger base sizes in Triple-A, anti-shift rules in Double-A, a step-off rule in High-A, an electronic strike zone in the Low-A Southeast League, a pitch timer in the Low-A West League, and pickoff limits in all three Low-A leagues, all of which Brendan Gawlowski and Kevin Goldstein discussed here — these changes are a chance to examine the real-world effects of implementing rules that have been discussed in recent years as ways to liven up a game that has become increasingly geared towards home runs and strikeouts. The pitching distance change is an effort to counter the trends of higher pitch velocity, higher strikeout rates, and fewer balls in play that have reduced the level of action and — to the eyes of many — the level of entertainment as well, the latter despite the incredible athleticism of the players involved. The DH rule change is an effort to counter the trend of decreased workloads of starting pitchers and the corresponding increased reliance upon bullpens, which have stoked the velocity and strikeout trends throughy a steady stream of relievers throwing an inning at a time at maximum effort.

This isn’t the first time MLB has gone to the Atlantic League to test out radical ideas; instead, it’s the latest stage of a three-year agreement put into place in 2019, allowing MLB to test new rules and equipment in the country’s top independent league. The three-batter rule that was introduced at the major league level last year was first tried in the Atlantic League in 2019. That same year, the league became the first to implement an electronic strike zone, and debuted larger bases and an anti-shift rule. All of those changes are now being subjected to further testing in affiliated ball, though the shift rule has taken a different form.

The Atlantic League planned to introduce a 62’6″ pitching distance — a two-foot move, twice the distance of this year change — in the middle of the 2019 season, but that plan was greeted with a chilly reception, with some pitchers threatening to leave the league. The plan was soon delayed until the second half of the 2020 season, which itself was scrapped entirely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Read the rest of this entry »

To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers are good. They lead all of major league baseball with a 10-2 record. They’ve outscored their opponents by 32 runs. Barring catastrophic injuries or a long run of bad luck, they seem poised to end the season as one of the league’s winningest teams.

You may be wondering where I’m going with this. It’s to introduce the idea that good teams are good by design. In a game whose goal is to maximize runs scored and minimize runs allowed, their hitters launch dingers, their pitchers compile strikeouts, and numerous depth players allow them to deal with injuries. But today, I want to focus on a single characteristic: plate discipline. As of writing, the Dodgers have the lowest in O-Swing% in the league. They’re also second in Z-Contact%, behind only the Astros. Laying off bad pitches, making contact with hittable ones – that seems like a recipe for success. And currently, no Dodger hitter is more emblematic of this approach than Max Muncy.

We haven’t written much about the first baseman here at FanGraphs. One reason might be that he isn’t the flashiest athlete – like Trout, he achieves greatness through consistent production at the plate. Theatrics are kept to a minimum, save for when he feuded with Madison Bumgarner. But another, more relevant reason might be that Muncy had remained true to himself since 2018, his breakout year. Sure, his wRC+ plummeted in 2020, but he sported an uncharacteristically low BABIP in one of baseball’s weirdest seasons. Besides that quirk, nothing much had changed. He drew his share of walks; he hit for power.

That is, until now. Somehow, someway, Muncy has become an even more extreme version of his patient, slugging self. His O-Swing rate of 12.5% is the lowest among all hitters, which is also the lowest of his career. But wait, that’s based on 12 games! How do you know this isn’t some small-sample blip? I wondered about that too, but looking at his rolling O-Swing% tells a different story, one which began in 2019:

Read the rest of this entry »