Ethan Small’s success comes largely from his heater. Which isn’t to suggest he throws smoke. As Eric Longenhagen wrote when profiling the 23-year-old southpaw for our 2020 Brewers Top Prospects list, Small is “blowing fastballs with mediocre velocity past opposing hitters because he hides the ball well and creates pure backspin.” Velocity-wise, the former Mississippi State Bulldog typically sits in the low 90s.

Professional hitters haven’t seen much of him due to the pandemic — Small’s curriculum vitae comprises 21 A-ball innings — but Southeastern Conference opponents are another story. They had plenty of opportunity to be impressed with the 28th-overall pick in the 2019 draft, particularly in his junior year when he went 10-2 with a 1.93 ERA, and 176 strikeouts in 107 innings.

A pair of fellow 2019 first-rounders sang Small’s praises when I asked which SEC pitchers they’d faced stood out the most.

Braden Shewmake, whom the Atlanta Braves drafted 21st overall out of Texas A&M, began by citing Casey Mize. The second pitcher he mentioned was Small. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley preview the 2021 Astros with Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle and the 2021 Rangers (54:07) with Levi Weaver of The Athletic.

Audio intro: The Felice Brothers, "T for Texas"
Audio interstitial: Chip Taylor & Carrie Rodriguez, "Dirty Little Texas Story"
Audio outro: 2nd Grade, "Bye-Bye Texas"

Link to Michael Baumann on the aging Astros
Link to Chandler on Valdez
Link to Chandler on Álvarez
Link to Martino’s Astros book
Link to Drellich’s Astros book
Link to Levi on the Rangers and fan safety
Link to ESPN on the Rangers front office
Link to The Daily News on the Rangers front office
Link to story on Charley Pride Fellowship Program
Link to Levi on Young
Link to Levi on the Rangers’ rotation
Link to Ken Rosenthal report about Lynn
Link to Andrew Simon on Kiner-Falefa
Link to Levi on Kiner-Falefa
Link to Levi on Calhoun
Link to Levi on Arihara
Link to Levi on Dunning
Link to Levi on the first-base battle
Link to things Levi is looking forward to
Link to story about B-Ref being sued
Link to Baseball-Reference Stream Finder

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Hi there. It’s me again. This week, I’m joined by my dear friend Jorge Arangure, former sports writer turned New York Times Metro editor covering the pandemic. In our first segment, we talk about the new rules in the minors, extension season, and some teams’ plans to fill their parks with fans. Then we are joined by Russell Dorsey, the Cubs beat writer forThe Chicago Sun Times, who talks about an offseason of mixed messages on the North Side, and the numerous questions about the team heading into the 2021 season. Then it’s listener emails and a long discussion about transitioning from sports to real media, as well as covering COVID while also getting it. We hope you enjoy!

Music by Anna Fox Rochinski.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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2:02	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I’m back after a very abbreviated chat full of technical difficulties last week.

2:03

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been kind of scarce on FanGraphs this week because I was working on the first of my two Positional Power Rankings assignments, the catchers, but I did just publish something about Jacob deGrom’s Hall of Fame chances, inspired by numerous questions along those lines in this space. Enjoy! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degrom-might-be-blazing-his-way-to-c…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: Also, I am pleased to announce that I’m freshly vaccinated as of yesterday! As is my wife as of today! Yaaaay! Here’s hoping that if you haven’t gotten your first shot, it’s coming soon

2:04	Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

2:06	Jay Jaffe: I don’t pay a ton of mind to it except that pitchers’ batting WAR is included in JAWS, because pitchers who can hit (and run the bases) well do have more value than ones who don’t. Zack Greinke, who has 5.1 bWAR for example, gets a nice little bump in his JAWS thanks to his offense.

Read the rest of this entry »

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JJ Bleday was drafted fourth-overall in 2019 after breaking out at Vanderbilt. Swinging from the left side, the now-23-year-old outfielder bashed an NCAA-best 26 home runs, putting up a 1.005 OPS along the way. And the Miami Marlins brought more than just a slugger on board. As Eric Longenhagen wrote in his prospect profile, Bleday is “a complete offensive package” who possesses “a superlative feel for the strike zone.”

Bleday didn’t get game action last year due to the pandemic, but his advanced tools and mature approach are impressive enough that the Marlins are giving him a long look this spring. Ranked 35th on our 2021 Top 100 Prospects list, Bleday is close to big-league ready despite having just 151 professional plate appearances, none above A-ball.

Bleday talked hitting prior to getting into the cage yesterday afternoon.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite icebreaker questions: Do you view hitting as more of an art, or as more of a science?

JJ Bleday: “I view it as more of an art. It’s definitely an art, because it’s your own craft. Everyone has their own style, and kind of mark on their swing, or variation of approaching the game.”

Laurila: A lot of the guys I’ve asked that question to have said “art,” but then talked about the science of hitting. Analytics are obviously a big part of the game now.

Bleday: “Oh, yeah, absolutely. With every sport. I mean, it’s big-time in golf nowadays.”

Laurila: Are hitting analytics a big part of who you are? Read the rest of this entry »

Given their blockbuster trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, their additions of James McCann and Taijuan Walker, and their projected first place NL East finish, the Mets already had plenty of buzz about them this spring. As if they needed more, their best player, Jacob deGrom, has provided some during the Grapefruit League season by reaching triple digits with his fastball velocity. On Tuesday against the Astros, his heater reportedly reached 100 mph 11 times on the stadium scoreboard, topping out at 101 on a pitch to Alex Bregman.

This is nothing new for the 32-year-old righty, who hit 100 in his first outing of the spring on March 6, the same day he was named the team’s Opening Day starter. Statcast wasn’t available for that outing or his March 11 one (both of which also came against the Astros in a spring where travel restrictions limit the pools of exhibition opponents). Here’s a look at deGrom’s upper-level readings from Tuesday:

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 914

On this week’s episode, we welcome a pair of renowned writers to discuss the baseball landscape before digging into the latest projection highlights.

• To begin the program, David Laurila is joined by Jayson Stark of The Athletic and the Starkville podcast and Tyler Kepner of The New York Times. The trio talk about how covering the sport has changed both in the face of the pandemic and naturally over the years, and how baseball writers have needed to adapt to their audiences. They also discuss the underrated Trea Turner, the legacies of Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, the promise of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto, and some of their other favorite players in the game right now. Finally, Jayson offers some trivia and a few stories of strange spring training injuries. [2:16]
• In the second half, Dan Szymborski and Tony Wolfe discuss Dan’s preseason breakout and bust candidates. Is Dan tempting fate, and Yankees Twitter, by predicting Gary Sánchez to have a good year? Dan also has questions about Charlie Blackmon’s low exit velocity as well as the potential of beard physics. And is calling for a Vladimiro Guerrero Jr. breakout a cowardly move at this point? [38:55]

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley attempt to make sense of unsightly spring training uniforms, then preview the 2021 Braves (08:42) with Grant McAuley of From The Diamond and the 2021 Mariners (45:27) with Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

Audio intro: Ken Stringfellow, "Uniforms"
Audio interstitial: Anti-Flag, "20 Years of Hell"
Audio outro: Jethro Tull, "Uniform"

Link to Meg’s tweet about the Padres’ uniforms
Link to Uni Watch on the St. Patrick’s Day unis
Link to Mike Petriello on the Braves’ projections
Link to Petriello on Tatis/Acuña/Soto
Link to Craig Goldstein on Fried
Link to study on Cobb County
Link to Neil deMause on the Cobb County study
Link to From The Diamond
Link to BP Mariners preview
Link to Rodríguez homer video
Link to Ryan on the Rodríguez homer
Link to Ryan on Kelenic and Mather
Link to Ryan on Kelenic’s injury
Link to Ryan on Dunn and spring training clichés
Link to Dan Szymborski’s hitter bust candidates
Link to Ryan on Kikuchi
Link to Ryan on the pandemic and the M’s rebuild

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12:00

Dan Szymborski: And greeting! Sorry about no chat last week, but I was not feeling well!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly played well! I haven’t seen him play though, so I can’t say much for the change. Spring stats are *slightly* meaningful, but it’s smart to be careful about excitement.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Yo!

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