Here is a story from yesterday: At the beginning of July, Yoán Moncada tested positive for COVID-19. He didn’t know where or how he got the disease. He missed the beginning of the White Sox training camp, sitting at home, his sense of smell and taste — a tell-tale symptom — temporarily gone. When he was cleared to come to camp two weeks later, manager Rick Renteria said that he looked “like he hadn’t skipped a beat.” Moncada himself said that he was “glad to be back and be healthy,” though his days since the diagnosis had been “scary and a difficult time.”

And yesterday, three months after that frightening positive test, Moncada spoke to reporters about how the virus is still affecting him. He described it as a battle — to summon the energy that had, prior to getting COVID-19, been abundant; to simply make it through each day, to push through the “weird feeling” that has drained him of his strength. “But that’s just something I have to deal with,” he concluded, “and it is what it is. I have to find a way to get through it.”

***

Here’s another story from yesterday: Even before the pandemic, Minor League Baseball as we know it was in limbo. MLB’s plan to contract the minor leagues, moving them under the purview of the MLB head office and leaving dozens of franchises staring down an uncertain future, became public knowledge in the dying days of the 2019 season.

Our world has changed dramatically since last October. MLB’s plan hasn’t. If anything, the Office of the Commissioner has even more justification to squeeze the minors: The pandemic has dealt a death-blow to many minor-league teams, whose profits, unlike those of major-league teams, are largely tied to game day ticket and concession sales. And yesterday, an ESPN report detailed the confusion and bitterness around the impending fundamental changes coming to the minors. Some minor league owners have been lobbying lawmakers to step in, and team owners have continued to attempt negotiations with MLB. But the deal, it seems, is done, and most teams are just trying to be among those left standing when this is all over. “Minor League Baseball,” as the article says, “a tradition of languid summer nights at ballparks where families can afford to watch future stars, has been reduced to a paranoid game of ‘Survivor.'”

***

And here’s another story from yesterday: In an interview with ESPN, Manny Machado — resurgent and resplendent on the Padres team that has taken baseball by storm — talked a lot about fun, and he talked a lot about joy. Fun: the connecting line between his experience of baseball now, as a multi-millionaire professional, and his experience of baseball as a kid. Joy: the experience that Machado feels the Padres bringing to their fans, to the sport of baseball in general. Here’s what Machado had to say about fun:

At the end of the day, it’s about going out there and having fun. And when you’re having fun, baseball just comes naturally to you. … I’ve been doing this a long time, and honestly it’s the same game right now as when I was a kid. You gotta catch the ball, you gotta throw the ball, you gotta hit the ball. The baseball has obviously gotten better, the bats have gotten better, the gloves have gotten better, the technology has gotten a lot better. But it’s the same game. It’s the same game that we love to play.

You didn’t think about stats, you didn’t think about home runs, you didn’t think about any of that when you were young. You were thinking about just going out there and having fun and getting ready to go have pizza with a soda at the end of the game and playing with your friends. It’s the same game now. Obviously it’s at the highest level, but you just have to go out there and enjoy yourself. And with the group that we have here, every single day it goes back to that. We just wanna have fun. And when you play at ease like that, it maximizes your level.

And here’s what he had to say about joy:

Going to the ballpark every day, people are excited. And obviously it sucks that we don’t have fans in the stands, but we have a lot of media telling us what’s going on with social media, people cheering us on. We’re bringing so much joy to this game every single night that every time we step on that field, we just wanna go out there and have a good time no matter if we’re losing or we’re winning. We just wanna go out there and just play baseball and give fans something to cheer for.

This season, Machado said, with this team, is the most fun he’s had playing baseball in a long time.

***

These three stories, all of them published on the same day — this is the emotional experience of baseball in 2020, paranoia and relief and depression and elation, all transposed into the familiar key of nine (or sometimes seven) innings, three outs, three strikes, all roiling together. If you let yourself settle into it, half-close your eyes and focus on something else, you can almost forget the turmoil of the world outside the empty stadiums. That never lasts long. There is always something that makes you remember. Sometimes it’s unique to this year — players sick, games canceled; other times, the ill that’s exposed was there all along. Sports are products of the societies that create them, and the society major league baseball currently inhabits is far from healthy. Major league baseball breathes, but its breath is labored, its face a little grey. Any illness in dirty air becomes obvious.

But then — all of a sudden, there is life again. There are five grand slams, a no-hitter. Favorite players do well. Games are walked off. Success knocks, unexpected, and then arrives, crossing the doorstep with a flourish. There are smiles, even laughs. Having fun. And there are others, all the other people out there, feeling that same sharp jolt. Joy. 

You see it in the moments immediately following Lucas Giolito’s no-hitter, the achievement of a lifetime after so much struggle. He feels it, that surge in the heart. It is transcendent. He is overwhelmed by it. His teammates are overwhelmed by it. They throw their arms around each other.

And it is in that second that you remember the pandemic — the danger — remember that they aren’t supposed to be doing this, that they shouldn’t be this close — remember how long it’s been since you’ve been able to hug all your own loved ones, to even be near them — and the jolt becomes a gasp. Pain.

There is so much we have lost, and so much we may yet lose. And baseball, for all it may contain, can’t cancel those losses out.

***

In the drawer where I keep all my papers and old notebooks, beside the newspaper my brother brought me from Washington, D.C., the day after the Nationals won the World Series, there’s a crumpled package of photocopied sheets, poorly stapled, bent in eight different directions. I got the sheets from a counselor back in December. I can’t do anything, I told him: everything overwhelms me, everything is bad.  The counselor was sympathetic, but since I was not in obvious, imminent danger of harming myself or others, there was little he could offer me. So he offered me the sheets of paper — cognitive behavioral therapy homework, the kind I’ve seen so many times. I never did the homework. I had forgotten about it until I unearthed it yesterday. Searching for old notes, my eye immediately caught on the only bolded phrase on the page, confronting me almost like a threat: Fun is not an option. It is important!

Of all the various tenets of stress management that I’ve read over the years, this has always been one that I’ve reflexively discarded. Of course, fun is important, but what about everything else? What about taking care of the people around me? What about making enough money to eat, to pay for the roof over my head? The pandemic has made the collective experiences that I would search for fun in either rare or nonexistent. And it has made the important concerns, the ones that left so little time for fun, all the more urgent. Fun is not an option — but for many people, for most people, it has to be. Other things have to come first. We are trying to survive as best we can. It is so hard to see, sometimes, where there is room for fun. The clock is always ticking, and the fun, the joy — it’s all on stolen time.

***

But I steal it, still. From the grand slams and the walk-offs, the no-hitters and the blowouts — I steal the joy that the players carry, wherever I can find it. And the pandemic is still here, everywhere, every breath of air and every touch suspect. And the pain runs deep in every conversation with people I can’t see, in every news item detailing more murders, more overdoses, more fires burning, and the money is dwindling, and the jobs don’t call back, and even in the morning the sleep doesn’t come. What, in the face of a darkening future, could justify this theft?

But I steal that joy, the joy carried to me through the pixels and the fake noise. I cling to it before it dissipates, as it always does, its particles consumed by thicker, heavier air. It might be wrong. It might be foolish. But I always find myself waiting for the next chance to feel that sharp life in my chest. To know that, despite everything, there are places where joy can be found — even when it shouldn’t be there.

San Diego’s big move at the deadline involved acquiring Mike Clevinger. Of course, they made a number of smaller moves as well, adding relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Taylor Williams, catcher Jason Castro, and designated hitter/first baseman Mitch Moreland. All of those deals made a ton of sense, but the one that jumps out, the deal that makes you wonder what exactly is going through A.J. Preller’s head, involved giving up a good prospect in Taylor Trammell, along with a few other useful players, for a package headlined by 30-year-old catcher Austin Nola and his 377 big league plate appearances. I suspect it caused many to ask, “Who is Austin Nola?” and “Why was he so valuable?”

Before we get to Nola, let’s first acknowledge that our evaluations of Taylor Trammell might be a bit off. He graded out as a 55 Future Value-level prospect when traded from the Reds a year ago, but he fell to a 50 on the Padres list this season, projecting to be an average regular. That’s a very good prospect, and one of the top 100 in the game, but he isn’t a surefire starting left fielder. As such, it’s possible Trammell’s trade value is slightly lower than the prospect consensus. Of course, we also need to mention that the Padres sent multiple other players to Seattle in power reliever Andres Muñoz, potential role player Ty France, and 24-year-old catcher Luis Torrens, whose development has been slow since joining the Padres as a Rule 5 pick before the 2017 season. And while the Padres did get two other relievers in Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla, explaining the Nola-Trammell swap as resulting from a drop in Trammell’s value doesn’t quite do enough, as even with a dip, he still provides a decent amount of value and the other players included add more to the trade. To really explain the deal, we need to explain Austin Nola, a player any team could have signed less than two years ago.

Nola was a fifth-round pick by the Marlins back in 2012 and signed for $75,000. This is what Baseball America had to say in their report:

Austin Nola has been drafted twice already, never higher than the 31st round. He was playing at a higher level as a senior, having played with younger brother Aaron, a right-hander who should be a high draft pick in 2014. The 6-foot, 188-pound shortstop plays with confidence, especially on defense, where his hands are sure and his feet surprisingly nimble considering his below-average speed. He lacks impact with his bat, though he has improved his plate discipline and contact ability slightly over the course of his career. He’s a career .296 hitter who gives consistent effort and performance while lacking upside.

Already 22 years old when he was drafted, by 2014 Nola was playing in Double-A and putting up an average hitting line. In the Arizona Fall League, he captured the attention of Carson Cistulli and on the 2015 Marlins prospect list, he merited mention by Kiley McDaniel as “a solid utility type that’s just good enough at shortstop to play there for stretches while he hits liners gap to gap.” There was little to no power in his game and after a nondescript 2016 season, the erstwhile editor of FanGraphs noted that Nola “continued in 2015 to exhibit the sort defensive value and contact skills typical of the overlooked prospect. The almost complete lack of power in both cases, however, renders [Nola] unlikely to provide much value in the majors.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about a Giants fun fact, two home run facts that may or may not be fun, the ways in which the circumstances of his era shaped the late Tom Seaver’s legacy, and the latest highlights of extra-innings baseball, then answer listener emails about another possible implementation of the automatic-runner rule and what qualifies as an “insurance run,” plus Stat Blasts about the players who use the most baseballs, Cameron Maybin and other players traded repeatedly by one team, and the records for consecutive pitches of each type.

Audio intro: Led Zeppelin, "Poor Tom"
Audio outro: Cat Le Bon, "Duke"

Link to Steven Goldman on Seaver
Link to Jay Jaffe on Seaver
Link to story about trading Seaver
Link to Seaver’s no-hitter
Link to Russell Carleton on Gallo bunting
Link to Mike Temple’s Stat Blast Song cover
Link to post about Carmel card
Link to spreadsheet of players dealt by one team
Link to spreadsheet of consecutive-pitch throwers
Link to Sam on fastball-reliant pitchers

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Not for nothing did they call Tom Seaver “The Franchise.” When he debuted in 1967, the Mets lost 101 games, their fifth time in triple digits in six seasons of existence. Two years later, he led the team not only to its first winning record but to an upset of the powerhouse Baltimore Orioles in the World Series. A month shy of his 25th birthday, he had given “the Miracle Mets” a leg up against the crosstown Yankees, who were going through a fallow period after dominating baseball for four and a half decades, and in doing so he became an all-American icon. Uniting a powerful, efficient “drop and drive” delivery with a cerebral approach and impeccable command, he would go on to check virtually every important box in his 20-year major league career, winning three Cy Young awards, making 12 All-Star teams, leading his league in a triple crown category 11 times, tossing a no-hitter, surpassing the 300-win and 3,000-strikeout milestones, and setting a record with the highest share of a Hall of Fame vote when he became eligible in 1992.

Last summer, in celebrating the 50th anniversary of that championship, the Mets announced that they would officially designate the address of Citi Field as 41 Seaver Way (after his uniform number, which they retired in 1988), and dedicate a statue to “Tom Terrific.” Alas, by that point, Seaver’s family had gone public with the news that he had been diagnosed with dementia and was retiring from public life; he had battled health problems for years, including multiple bouts with Lyme disease. He missed the anniversary festivities and never lived to see the statue’s completion. Seaver passed away on Wednesday at age 75. According to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, he died peacefully in his sleep from complications of Lewy body dementia and COVID-19.

Seaver spent 11 1/2 of his 20 seasons with the Mets, departing in rather traumatic fashion first on June 15, 1977, in a trade to the Reds that was dubbed “The Midnight Massacre,” and then again in 1983, when after returning to New York via a trade and spending a season back in Queens, he was left unprotected in what was called the free agent compensation draft. He spent 2 1/2 years with the White Sox and his final half-season aiding the 1986 Red Sox’s pennant push, though a late-season knee injury kept him off the postseason roster and he could only watch as his former team won its second World Series.

Seaver was so durable that he made at least 32 starts and threw at least 200 innings in the first 13 seasons of his career and in 16 in all, the last at age 40. He finished with an ERA+ of at least 100 while qualifying for the ERA title in 18 of those seasons, including his final one at age 41; that’s tied with Walter Johnson for fourth behind only Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, and Cy Young, all with 19. His 3,640 strikeouts still rank sixth all-time, while his 311 wins rank 18th. He’s seventh in shutouts (61), 15th in starts (647), 19th in innings (4,783), walks (1,390) and home runs allowed (380), and in a virtual tie for 22nd among pitchers with at least 2,500 innings in ERA+ (127).

On the advanced statistical front, his 109.9 bWAR (including offense) ranks sixth behind only Johnson, Young, Clemens, Pete Alexander, and Kid Nichols. His seven-year peak score is “only” 20th, but his 84.6 JAWS is eighth; every pitcher ahead of him save for Clemens last pitched in the majors prior to World War II. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Winning a batting title on its own doesn’t quite win you the household name status that it once did. Ask the casual fan the first thing that comes to mind when they hear the name Tim Anderson, and there’s a good chance it’s the time he pimped the living daylights out of a homer off Brad Keller in 2019 and was subsequently plunked for it. Only after a repeat visit to his highlight reel and another exhausting discussion about baseball’s unwritten rules would they get around to saying he was last season’s American League batting champion, with his .335 average leading all major league hitters.

For a guy who previously held a career batting average of .258, that was a surprising development, but it wasn’t as though he’d suddenly turned into an MVP candidate. Anderson virtually never walked, and hit for only average power, meaning a near-.400 BABIP could still only get him to a 3.5 WAR season. That’s nothing to sneeze at — it put him in the 78th percentile of all batters who made at least 300 plate appearances last season. But there was good reason to believe that was probably his ceiling.

That brings us to another surprising development — Anderson has gotten even better. He’s once again in the batting title discussion, with a .333 average that trails only that of Cleveland’s Franmil Reyes (.336) in the American League. But he’s also running an on-base percentage of .372 and a whopping .579 slugging percentage, helping him to 1.5 WAR that ranks 19th in baseball. Of the 18 players ahead of Anderson, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rendon are the only ones not to have logged at least seven more games than him. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: It is a time to chat!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: The chat is now!

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Now is the chat.

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I’m just happy that there’s a Dan Szymborski character on a TV show! (Young & the Restless). I don’t need a Dan Szymborski t-shirt empire.

Read the rest of this entry »

The inspiration for a new pitch design can strike at any moment. Usually, it’s a coach or a teammate sharing their well-earned wisdom or tricks-of-the-trade. Sometimes a new pitch is developed during bullpen sessions as a pitcher tinkers with a new grip or finger placement. More recently, pitch design has been outsourced to technologically advanced pitching labs like Driveline, where pitchers try to harness all the data at their disposal to create the most effective pitch possible. But for Devin Williams, the design for his changeup didn’t come from any of the normal avenues. Instead, it was developed on the neighborhood fields of his childhood.

In a recent media session, he described how he had thrown a version of what is now his changeup since he was growing up:

“I started throwing like that as a kid. Like, when I played catch with my friends, just to mess with people, trying to make them miss the ball when I threw it to them. That’s what turned into my changeup. I’ve had that since I was maybe 10 years old.”

Changeups come in a variety of types and styles. There’s the classic change that relies on a high velocity differential off the fastball to create deception. The circle change adds tumbling vertical movement to further differentiate the pitch from a heater. Felix Hernandez’s cambio redefined what a modern changeup could look like without the trademark velocity differential. Williams’ changeup is an entirely different beast, making it a changeup unique in baseball — the unicorn changeup. Read the rest of this entry »

Even in a wackily truncated season like this one, the trade deadline serves as an important landmark in the playoff hunt. While players will still be released and signed, lose their jobs and get injured, the dramatic changes in team quality are largely over. For a projectionist such as myself, it also comes as a relief as I no longer have to worry about spending time crunching the numbers only to have a 14-player, three-way trade go down just after I file an article. The players teams have on their rosters now are more or less the ones they have at their disposal over the rest of the season.

Before we get to the division-by-division standings updates, let’s take a quick look at how the last few days altered teams’ playoff odds. I projected the rest of the season for each team based on both their roster prior to the deadline’s moves and their roster as it stands post-deadline. I then compared the results to see which club saw the biggest rest-of-season gains and losses.

Read the rest of this entry »

Dave Raymond knows the West. The team he does play-by-play for, the Texas Rangers, not only competes in the American League West, their inter-league schedule this year comprises solely the National League equivalent. As a result, Raymond has been getting regular looks at two of the game’s most talent-rich divisions. In terms of powerhouse clubs and marquee players, the West is arguably baseball’s best.

How would Raymond rank the teams and players he’s seen this season? That was the crux of a conversation I had with the TV voice of the Rangers prior to last night’s game.

———

David Laurila: Which is the best team you’ve seen this year?

Dave Raymond: “I’ve been really impressed with the Padres. They looked really good against us [in mid-August]. We may have gotten them right on the way to their peak — and that might have been us headed right to the trough — but they were really impressive. They have so much great young talent. There are guys like Jake Cronenworth who are hardly even noticed in the shadow of Fernando Tatis Jr. I mean, Cronenworth has to be the top rookie-of-the-year candidate right now, and he doesn’t even stand out on that team.

“Even Manny Machado. It looked like the energy of some of the young players is lifting him a little bit. He made some plays against the Rangers that were were pretty neat. You got a glimpse again of that young Manny Machado who won a Gold Glove and was more of the all-round player.

“But here’s my thought about the Padres: if you look at that lineup, find me the homegrown guy. He’s not there. It’s made up of all these pieces that were plucked from different organizations in trades and free agent signings. In kind of a perverse way, it’s really remarkable. I don’t think anybody sets out to build a championship team almost exclusively from other teams, but that’s kind of what they’ve done. And we just saw them, at the trade deadline, going out and aggressively bringing in even more guys from other organizations. Read the rest of this entry »