As first reported by Jon Heyman of MLB Network, Stephen Strasburg has agreed on Monday afternoon to re-sign with the Washington Nationals. Strasburg’s new seven-year deal will net him $245 million, or a cool $35 million per season. The fancy new contract at least temporarily stands as the largest guaranteed payday in baseball history for a pitcher, eclipsing the $217 million the Red Sox inked with David Price after the 2015 season.

Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are players on the level that any team would have been hard-pressed to replace their production. To not sign at least one of the pair would likely be a strong enough hit to give the World Champion Nats a fairly difficult road to returning to the playoffs in 2020. Making it up in lesser deals for lesser lights has become even more difficult with players like Zack Wheeler, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal, all players that could have conceivably helped a post-Rendonburg Nats, already signed.

At $35 million a year, unless the Nats were bluffing about only being able to sign one of their free agents, this likely closes the book on Rendon’s time in Washington. With the team about $32 million from the first luxury tax threshold, Rendon might just barely sneak in. His number would have to be a little less than $30 million, as player benefits also count towards the luxury tax payroll. Unless the team clears payroll elsewhere, they’d have to get extremely creative in order to significantly improve first base, the bullpen, and possibly add another starter at the back of the rotation. It could very likely make them barrel through the $228 million threshold, something they may want to avoid with Adam Eaton, Sean Doolittle, and Max Scherzer nearing free agency and Juan Soto hitting arbitration soon. If the team could truly only sign one of the players, I think Strasburg is the right choice.

Carter Kieboom is unlikely to replace Rendon’s production in 2020 or 2021, but he’s a significant prospect who could become a legitimate plus at the hot corner fairly quickly. I don’t think the upside of whoever would have replaced Strasburg without an additional signing (Austin Voth or Joe Ross) matches what the Nats have in Kieboom. Read the rest of this entry »

most consecutive times eliminating single opp in head-to-head playoff series:

2003-19 NYY over MIN: 6**
1923-62 NYY over NYG/SF: 5*
1941-53 NYY over BRO: 5
2015-22 HOU over NYY: 4**
1981-2018 NYY over OAK: 4**
1986-2008 BOS over LAA: 4

*=active
**= active + every PS H2H series

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) October 24, 2022

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Ben’s Take
This feels like as good a place as any to talk about the shortstop market. The Yankees will be in search of a premium shortstop. The Dodgers might be, too, unless they move Trea Turner to short and pursue a second baseman. The Tigers, Phillies, Nationals, and Cubs have openings, though not all of those teams are looking to make a big splash. There will surely be some mystery teams in on these guys, too; if you want to jump start a rebuild, franchise shortstops will certainly appeal.

Correa has one main question mark: health. He’s only put together two 600 PA seasons in his career, though he also played the whole year in 2020. That aside, what’s not to like? He’s a tremendous hitter, combining a plus hit tool with easy power. That works out to a batting line 25% or so better than average, with upside for more. He’s also improved his fielding, which was once a question; the eye test and advanced metrics agree that he’s an above average defender, and he emphasized that improvement this postseason with a flurry of great plays.

The biggest question with Correa is not whether he’ll get the biggest contract handed out this offseason, but how he’ll fare relative to Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr., the two shortstops who set the market last year. I don’t think Correa quite gets there, but I do think he’ll top this market comfortably. The Astros have reportedly already offered him a five-year contract worth $32 million per year, but there’s little question he’ll get more years, more money per year, or both from an interested suitor.

Player Notes
It’s a deep free agent class, but it’s defined by the outstanding group of shortstops at the top, led by a pair of excessively young, impact-level players: Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Offensively, they’re quite similar, but Seager has a bit of an edge by being a slightly better pure hitter with underrated power that is every bit equal to Correa’s. Where Correa gains his edge, and it’s a considerable one, is with his defense. In terms of scouting grades, Seager is a 45 shortstop. He’s certainly capable of playing the position, but his range is sub-standard and he just doesn’t get to as many balls as your average player at the position. Correa, on the other hand, is an outstanding defender, with the difference between him and Seager arguably measured in multiple wins. He doesn’t have the twitch you normally expect at short, but his reactions and first step are phenomenal, and having one of the best infield arms in the game allows him to make plenty of plays that others can’t. Throw in the clubhouse and leadership impact he provides, and as good as this class is, there really isn’t much debate as to who should rank number one. – KG

Ben’s Take
If you’d prefer your young, slugging shortstop to hit lefty rather than righty, Corey Seager has you covered. A mere five months older than Correa, Seager has been his equal in nearly every way. They broke into the league the same year, hitting right from the start, and have both struggled with intermittent injuries, perhaps the consequence of putting their 6-foot-4 frames (the same there, too) through the rigors of playing shortstop in the major leagues.

Seager ranks behind Correa because I have more doubts about his ability to stick at short. In an injury-shortened year, Seager’s bat was every bit as good as advertised, but his defense took a step back, and even at his best, he’s a 50-55 defender at the position. In a few years, he’ll likely slide over to third base, where he’ll still be an absolutely premium player, just one at a slightly less difficult defensive position.

Every team that’s in on Correa will likely be in on Seager as well, but he’s no mere consolation prize. The hardest-hit batted ball of his career came in 2021. So did his highest walk rate. Meanwhile, he struck out only 16% of the time. He did it by hunting a pitch to drive (top-10-percent zone swing rate) and mostly laying off balls. If you’re looking for the hitter in this class with the best chance of going nova and putting up Trout-esque numbers, I’d bet on Seager.

Player Notes
A two and a half-month absence due to a right hand fracture put a dent in Seager’s season, that after a torrid 2020 showing capped by NLCS and World Series MVP honors. When he played, Seager outhit even his 2016 NL Rookie of the Year-winning campaign via a .306/.394/.521 (147 wRC+) line; all but the batting average were full-season highs, as was his 11.7% walk rate. He raked at an MVP-caliber 169 wRC+ clip after the injury (116 before), with 12 of his 16 homers coming from July 30 onward. Put together his 2020-21 numbers for a full-ish season of data and you get a .306/.381/.545 (148 wRC+) line with 31 homers and 5.6 WAR in 147 games.

Alas, Seager hasn’t played anywhere close to 147 games in a year since 2017 (145), which will limit his payday, but at least fractures don’t portend more of the same the way soft tissue injuries do. The other concern is defense; while still playable at shortstop (-2 DRS, -6.9 UZR, -5 OAA for 2020-21), he’s no Ozzie Smith, and at some point probably bound for the hot corner. He could still return to the Dodgers, but the Trea Turner acquisition makes clear the existence of alternatives. – JJ

Ben’s Take
In two of the last three seasons, Semien has been a stud. In the five other full seasons he’s played, he’s been a solid everyday regular, nothing more. Who’s the real Semien? My best guess — and Steamer’s — is somewhere in between, a fringe All-Star who can handle either middle infield spot, though second looks like a more natural long-term home to my eyes.

Getting that kind of production for the next few years and then a capable middle infielder as he ages (he’s 31 right now) should interest everyone, but particularly teams that think their competitive window has an expiration date. The Phillies and Twins could use that. So could the Yankees, at least as a supplement to their current core. That might keep Semien’s contract short — but he’ll get paid in return for its brevity.

Player Notes
If you thought Marcus Semien’s weak 2020 season proved that his near-MVP performance in ’19 was a stone-cold fluke, he would like to have a word with your manager. While we’d all probably like to forget about 2020, Semien managed that feat better than most, nearly matching his ’19 with a .265/.334/.538, 131 wRC+, 6.6 WAR ironman performance that was a big reason the Blue Jays were competitive until the final day of the season. Among players with at least 50% of their games played at second base, Semien even set the single-season record for home runs.

While the shortstop market this winter is deep, Semien’s 2021 means that he won’t have to go hat-in-hand on a one-year deal, though a true blockbuster contract is unlikely as he’s on the wrong side of 30. In a flip of the usual dynamic, Semien playing second might make him even more valuable than he would be otherwise, as he’s already shown himself amenable to playing there instead of at short, which might not be the case with the other top free agents at the position.

Semien’s likely entering his decline years, but I’d have no problem considering him a star for at least the next two or three seasons, and playing him at shortstop for at least the beginning of his contract if my roster demanded it. His mid-career turnaround will always be a great example of why you should take every opportunity to let a talented player redefine himself in a positive fashion. – DS

Ben’s Take
“Dead arm” is a scary term. It’s especially scary for a 37-year-old pitcher who had an IL stint this year, though it was for an unrelated issue. Still, uh, have you seen Max Scherzer pitch? He’s one of the best five or so starters in the game, and if you throw out 2020, he hasn’t thrown fewer than 170 innings since 2010. As the adage goes, pitchers don’t age, they break — and if Scherzer’s arm didn’t break, the team that secures his services will instantly have a rock at the top of their rotation.

Fourth sounds high for someone with a dead arm, but consider this a bit of a hedge: teams will get a look at his medicals, and if what we saw in October is truly something more than Scherzer tiring after a mad rush to the finish and a heavy playoff workload, then he shouldn’t be here on the list. This assumes health, because on the outside looking in, that’s the best I can do.

That said — c’mon, be honest, you want your team to sign Scherzer to a two-year, $60 million deal. He’s monomaniacally driven, which is an absolute blast to watch. Your team could do match what the Nationals did on their scoreboard, where they only showed his eyes, with his irises the only part of the image in color. It’s awesome! He could issue some quote about how your manager will have to come at him with a pitchfork and a specially designed Scherzer-catching net to get him off the mound. He’ll likely do all of that while posting an ERA with a two handle. It might not be the longest deal on the list — or he might be hurt — but Scherzer is the kind of premium free agent every contender could use.

Player Notes
His final two regular season starts and two of his three postseason ones were mediocre, but that shouldn’t be the lasting impression of Scherzer’s 2021 season. In the final year of one of the most fully realized free agent megadeals — $210 million for two Cy Youngs, two no-hitters, a championship, and 39.7 WAR — the 36-year-old Scherzer pitched like a man chasing more hardware, placing second in the NL in ERA (2.46), strikeouts (236), and K-BB% (28.8%), third in WAR (5.4), and fourth in FIP (2.96). His only blemish was a comparatively inflated 1.15 HR/9, but even that was 0.18 below the average starter.

Suffice it to say that Scherzer remains an ace, and will command an ace salary, quite possibly topping Gerrit Cole’s $36 million AAV on a multiyear deal. The Dodgers likely have the inside track given not only their financial advantages but also a sense of unfinished business after Scherzer was unable to make a second NLCS start due to arm fatigue. Any contender with a need for frontline pitching will kick the tires if the Dodgers don’t land him quickly, but he’ll have no trouble finding a home. – JJ

Ben’s Take
Win an MVP? Check. Win the World Series in Atlanta? Check. Freeman is heading into free agency after a crowning achievement, and he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball, so he’ll add a stack of loot to his accolades, whether he’d prefer to stick around or find greener pastures.

There’s a broad consensus that Freeman will stay in Atlanta, and I think that’s the most likely outcome. It just makes sense: he likes it there, and the Braves have the resources and desire to re-up. It’s hard to imagine a better situation than staying where you live, joining the reigning World Series champion, and getting more than $100 million to do it. That doesn’t mean other teams won’t pursue him, but it does mean that I’m going to gloss over Freeman’s bona fides a bit. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball. Atlanta knows it, and they’ll likely be the ones to pay him accordingly.

Player Notes
Freeman took a step backward from his MVP-winning 2020 campaign, but given that he posted a .456 wOBA and 186 wRC+ that year, it’s kind of hard to imagine how he could’ve done better. Besides, that step backward amounted to a .379 wOBA and 135 wRC+, along with 4.5 WAR, good for fifth among first basemen this year and making this his sixth full season of 4-plus WAR out of the last eight.

That kind of excellent consistency is Freeman’s hallmark. His triple slash, wOBA and wRC+ in 2021 were almost exact matches for both his career numbers in those categories and his production since the start of 2013. In that span, he’s posted a .388 wOBA and 144 wRC+ over 5,381 plate appearances; among players with 5,000 or more over those nine seasons, he trails only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt in the former category, and is tied with Votto for first in the latter. Freeman is as close as it gets to automatic production, both at the plate and with the glove, ranking as one of the game’s best defenders at first. That’s worth an easy nine figures, though whichever team hands him that deal will be taking a great leap of faith in hoping an over-30 hitter already at the outermost edge of the defensive spectrum can age gracefully. On the other hand, you’re getting a player for whom a four-win season is the norm and who spent the last three years spitting on the idea of decline. Stability never looked so sexy. – JT

Ben’s Take
If you’re under the age of 50, you probably don’t actually own a Swiss Army knife. You likely know what they are, though: a metal interpretation of Kris Bryant. He slices! He dices! He corkscrews! He takes walks! He hits for power! It’s a solidly above-average offensive profile, and he does it while playing wherever you need him to in the field.

Bryant struggled defensively after his trade to the Giants, but I’m not particularly worried about that. Right field in San Francisco is bizarre. It’s somehow both expansive and cozy, and you might be sprinting headlong into the power alleys or playing a ball on the ricochet off the tall outfield wall — or sometimes both on the same play. Bryant was above average in left and center — and per OAA, somehow four outs below average in only 67 innings in right field.

A reunion with the Giants seems likely, but if he does leave, his blend of power and patience means that he’d be an upgrade in nearly every contender’s lineup. If the Mets are adding this offseason, he’d be a good fit. The Mariners have an open spot at third base, and budget space to replace Kyle Seager. Those aren’t the only possible destinations, either: given Bryant’s ability to handle an everyday role in either outfield corner or third base, tons of teams will check in should his market prove slower or lower than expected.

Player Notes
Bryant was the heartthrob Rookie of the Year in 2015 and a run-away MVP winner a year later. The latter achievement capped a dream season that marked the end of Chicago’s 108-year title drought and established Bryant as one of the game’s preeminent stars.

Bryant couldn’t quite sustain that elite level of production. He accrued nearly half of his 31 career WAR in those first two seasons, and two-thirds of it in his first three. Since then, he hasn’t eclipsed the 148 wRC+ he posted in 2016, or bested the 6.7 WAR he notched in 2017; indeed, he hasn’t touched even five wins in the years since. He’s still good, of course: Even with a disastrous 2020, Bryant has posted a 124 wRC+ since 2018, and his defensive versatility offers value beyond what WAR can capture. Along the way though, he’s slipped from the type of player who starts an All-Star game to one who finishes it, and increasingly it seems like he’s played his best baseball.

The wild card here is if he re-signs with the Giants. If that player development system can turn Darin Ruf into a weapon, perhaps they can put Bryant back on track to Cooperstown. – BG

Ben’s Take
Ray put his hellacious stuff together this year, pitching to the potential that he showed for years in Arizona. He’s always had strikeout stuff, but often wasted good performances due to his command issues.

About that: he stopped walking people this year. “Continue striking everyone out but cut out the walks” is a neat trick — every big league pitcher would do it if they could. Ray cut his walk rate literally in half, posting a 6.9% rate after a profligate 2020. He also struck out 32.1% of his opponents, the second-best mark of his career. All the strikeouts, none of the walks? It’s clear why Ray was so effective.

Every team shopping at the top of the free agent market will want Ray. Is there a chance he reverts to his previous form? Sure. But if this year’s command improvements even half-stick, he’ll be a top-of-the-rotation starter for years to come.

Player Notes
After years of high strikeout and walk rates, Ray finally tapped into his tantalizing potential this season by lowering the latter without affecting the former. Signed by the Blue Jays on a one-year deal after a horrid 2020 season, Ray quickly became the staff’s ace and very well could end up winning the American League Cy Young, thanks to his 2.84 ERA over 193.1 innings pitched. The 6.9% walk rate was by far a career-best, though his FIP — and thus his WAR — didn’t scream as elite because he allowed the seventh-highest HR/9 among pitchers with 150 innings. This is definitely a different Robbie Ray, though, and as long as he remains in control of his stuff, the 30-year-old should be one of the most sought-after free agents on the market. The Blue Jays would probably be remiss to let him sign elsewhere, but a Cy Young-caliber season in terms of run prevention will mean that his services will be much more in demand this winter than they were just a year ago. Even with a little regression baked in, Ray should be a productive starter again next year, with the potential for more if he repeats his 2021. – DF

Ben’s Take
Unlike Ray, Stroman has been a consistently solid performer when he’s played. If you want a 3-4 WAR pitcher with durability, Stroman is your man. Pitching-needy teams like the Red Sox, Mets, and Cardinals might be most interested, but any team on the playoff fringes would benefit from the sure rotation improvement Stroman provides.

Stroman has always gotten grounders, but he supplemented that core skill with an increased strikeout rate this year. His secret? A split change that he leaned on heavily for the first time this season. It was only a fourth pitch, but it served to make everything play up: not only did the splitter miss a ton of bats, but his sinker, cutter, and slider all missed more than they had in previous years.

Combine a new penchant for missing bats and his normal grounder-focused game, and you have a recipe for success. He also made 33 starts, the rare pitcher with a durable 2021 season. It might sound strange that a pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate is a hot commodity in this era of missing bats and taking names, but Stroman does everything else so well that it hardly matters. If he takes another step forward with his splitter in his second year throwing it, there’s even more upside — and we’re already talking about a workhorse with a mid-3.00s ERA.

Player Notes
Marcus Stroman might not be a Cy Young candidate or a pitcher who sits at the top of the rotation, but he’s good in nearly every way, and he achieved what proved to be an exceptionally rare feat in 2021: he took the bump every five days without missing a start. His approach to pitching is unique in today’s game. In an era when baseball has become obsessed with rising, backspinning four-seam fastballs, Stroman utilizes a sinker that is a bit on the soft side in terms of velocity, but becomes plus due to spin, movement and his ability to locate. His off-speed repertoire is actually hard, as his slider and cutter both have above-average velocity, and his newly-found splitter has quickly become an offering he can use to keep hitters off balance. Stroman’s combination of above-average performance and durability is the kind teams pay heavily for, as while fans don’t always focus on these numbers, games started and innings pitched can play a huge role in determining free agent value. – KG

Ben’s Take
At 33, it’s a good bet that Marte won’t repeat his 2021 numbers, but he plays a young man’s game; he plays a solid center field, sprays the ball to all fields, and causes havoc when he reaches base.

If Marte were three years younger, he might make the top five of this list. Teams don’t hand out long contracts to 33-year-old hitters these days. In the last two offseasons combined, only Josh Donaldson and D.J. LeMahieu signed deals of four years or longer at age 33 or older, and LeMahieu’s deal was artificially long to spread out the cap hit.

Like Semien, this makes Marte a bargain for teams that want to compete right this minute without locking up a position for a decade. The Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets could use that. The Astros could too, particularly if they don’t sign a big-ticket shortstop.

Player Notes
The 33-year-old Marte remains in top-of-the-scale physical condition and is coming off a career year, hitting .308/.381/.456 and generating a whopping 5.4 WAR while setting or tying personal bests for OBP (.381), walk rate (8%), and steals (47). It’s reasonable to expect him to continue to be an impact player for the next couple of years, and then merely a productive big leaguer for the life of his next contract considering that athletes like Marte, who is built as if the engineers at Ferrari designed a human person, tend to age well. Despite his age, Marte remains a plus runner (4.2 seconds home to first) and his feel and instincts on the bases are elite. He’s sixth in the majors in baserunning runs (Billy Hamilton, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jarrod Dyson, and Brett Gardner are ahead of him) since he first debuted in 2012. Though his true talent power (Marte hits the ball on the ground an awful lot, 54% of the time in 2021) is closer to the .420 SLG range, that’s still well above the league average in center field, a position which produced a .243/.314/.405 line across baseball last season. – EL

Ben’s Take
Story would have placed higher on the list before this year. He had his worst season since 2017, dropping 30 points of OBP and 80 of slugging percentage compared to his previous three seasons of production. That’s a worrisome trend — but underneath the hood, things still mostly look rosy.

If there’s cause for concern, it’s on defense, and I’ll be honest: I’m not sure what to think. Per DRS, Story was excellent, but DRS seems to systematically overrate Colorado infield defenders. From 2010-21, DRS thought the Rockies had the best infield defense by roughly 130 runs, 285 runs above average. It also thought they had the worst outfield defense, 205 runs below average. UZR and OAA both think that the Rockies have been good at infield defense — they’ve had a ton of talented defenders — but place them firmly in the fray, not head and shoulders above everyone else.

In 2021, DRS thought Story was as good as ever, UZR thought he was slightly above average, and OAA thought he was awful. Which metric teams see as closest to predictive will go a long way towards determining what contract he gets, because a league-average bat at shortstop is valuable, but particularly so if he’s an elite defender too.

Player Notes
Story overcame early-career struggles with strikeouts and ascended to star-level performance in his mid-20s, peaking with a couple 5-to-6 WAR, 35-to-37 homer seasons in 2018 and ‘19. No shortstop (unless you count Manny Machado as a shortstop) has homered more than Story since he debuted in 2016; he has about 50 more home runs than Correa and Seager during that span. While Coors Field is responsible for at least some of Story’s offensive performance (his career xSLG is .468, while his actual is .523), this is still a shortstop with rare power for the position, though Story’s power output in literally every facet (SLG, HR, ISO, average exit velo, max exit velo, etc.) has been slowly declining since that aforementioned two-year peak. This year he began having trouble making strong, accurate throws to first base, often just limply slinging the ball over after taking a running start. Whichever team pays Story will likely be one that isn’t worried about his sudden throwing woes, and to his credit, Story found a way to play around his injury and still make most of the plays one could reasonably expect him to at short. – EL

Ben’s Take
In past years, I’d argue that Castellanos was a bit unlucky to not end up with better numbers. This year, he seems to have been slightly fortunate, but make no mistake: he’s been crushing the ball for years on end at this point. He might not be an impact defender, but his 126 wRC+ since 2018 is 12th among hitters with 2,000 PA or more, and that’s not something you can fake. No two ways about it: he can rake.

With a universal DH looking increasingly likely, there’s less reason to fret about his defense, and he’s durable to boot. A top hitter who rarely misses a game and is only 29? Yeah, that sounds like something a lot of teams will be interested in.

Player Notes
Of Castellanos’ two years in the Queen City, the first was a blah 2020 where he barely squeaked above league-average production. The second was a very good J.D. Martinez impersonation, in which he set new career highs in home runs, each triple slash stat, wOBA (.391), wRC+ (140), ISO (.267), and WAR (4.2). That last figure is hurt by his defense, which grades out negatively per both our metrics and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-6, 221th in the majors); like Martinez, he’s better off leaving his glove at home. Offensively, though, Castellanos is as good as it gets if you’re looking for right-handed power in a corner outfield spot, and he won’t turn 30 until next March.

Whether he can stay on this Martinez-like path depends on a few factors. He needs to keep the positive developments in his swing choices: fewer strikeouts and whiffs and more contact than his weak 2020, and an emphasis on hunting and punishing fastballs and pitches in the zone. The NL adopting the DH would only expand his market. And he also needs to choose his next home carefully. Castellanos raked at Great American Ball Park, one of the majors’ best stadiums for right-handed hitters, posting a 1.109 OPS there with a .702 slugging percentage in 2021, but was mortal on the road, hitting .260/.319/.454. He’ll give front offices a lot to chew on, as there’s a drive into deep left field, and that’ll be a home run. – JT

Ben’s Take
You should want your team to sign Báez. You might not know this to be the case; maybe you think you’re set in the middle infield, or don’t think his numbers are sustainable, or think his plate discipline will catch up to him soon. He struck out more than a third of the time this year and had one of the worst chase rates in baseball; it’s not hard to convince yourself that he might have some downside risk.

And yet, you should want your team to sign Báez. Baseball is a game, and I can’t think of many players who have more fun playing it or produce more memorable moments. Dazzling defensive plays, genius-level baseball IQ, wild swings at shoelace-high pitches that nonetheless produce home runs; Báez does it all, and he does it with an infectious grin. You’re going to watch a ton of your team’s games; those games will be more enjoyable with Báez playing in them.

Oh yeah: he’s good, too. Maybe he won’t replicate his offensive numbers again, but he’s a sterling defender with plus power. At only 28 (29 next season), he could be a force for years to come. That and the sheer joy he plays the game with? It’s a hard package to dislike.

Player Notes
Welcome to the winter’s most fascinating free agent. Báez’s track record is as excellent as his approach is horrifying, and that alone makes for a zesty profile. On top of that, Báez is also the only star free agent shortstop who comes without a qualifying offer attached, a significant consideration in the prospect-hugging era. Undoubtedly, many clubs will be spooked by his regressing plate discipline, particularly as he enters his 30s: Báez’s game only works because of his electric bat speed, and even the brightest physical attributes fade with time. Welcome to the winter’s most fascinating free agent. Báez’s track record is as excellent as his approach is horrifying, and that alone makes for a zesty profile. On top of that, Báez is also the only star free agent shortstop who comes without a qualifying offer attached, a significant consideration in the prospect-hugging era. Undoubtedly, many clubs will be spooked by his regressing plate discipline, particularly as he enters his 30s: Báez’s game only works because of his electric bat speed, and even the brightest physical attributes fade with time.

But anyone who can stomach potential snake eyes has plenty to gain if they roll boxcars. Toss out 2020, and Báez has averaged nearly 4.5 wins over his last three full seasons. That’s well ahead of Carlos Correa and Cory Seager’s production, and he doesn’t have any of the scary nagging injuries that have dogged those two in recent seasons. Wherever he goes, a short, front-loaded, high-AAV deal seems like the sweet spot for all parties. Teams like Detroit and Seattle, clubs with money to spend, wins to chase, and a good reason to hang on to their 2022 draft picks, should be very interested. – BG

Ben’s Take
Good pitching is hard to come by. You can’t always check every box, which is why teams will back up a truck full of money for Rodriguez despite his 4.74 ERA in 2021. He was wildly unlucky on batted balls, allowing the second-highest BABIP in baseball.

If you think Rodriguez will be less snakebitten next year, there’s a lot to like. Aside from a health scare that caused him to miss the 2020 season, he’s rarely missed a turn, making 31 starts this season and 34 in 2019. He doesn’t always give you great length — this year’s 31 starts covered only 156.2 innings — but turn a few more batted balls into outs, and the length could appear out of nowhere. Of the top 25 free agents, Rodriguez might be the least decorated — but he also might be the best bargain for a contender who believes in his peripherals.

Player Notes
Rodriguez missed the entire 2020 season due to myocarditis stemming from COVID-19 but came back to log 157.2 innings of roughly league-average run prevention in ‘21. His strikeout and walk rates were both career bests, however, and he ended up setting a career high in WAR as a result. A .363 BABIP allowed, in combination with a career-low 68.9% strand rate, oddly yielded a career-high ERA, despite everything else being seemingly very solid. A lot of these woes were mostly relegated to the first half, including a horrid May that saw him allow 24 runs in 29.2 innings; from August 1 through the end of the season, on the other hand, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.26 ERA and produced 1.7 WAR. Overall, Rodriguez isn’t a frontline starter, but he’s the type of pitcher who will do many things slightly better than league-average, culminating in a productive arm pretty much every season. At just 28, Rodriguez also has the distinction of being the youngest starting pitcher on our top 50, perhaps suggesting that he is among the likeliest candidates to receive a longer-term deal if he wants it, even though he may not be one of the flashiest names on this list. – DF

Ben’s Take
Gausman had his best year in 2021, his second straight season of delivering on the promise he showed as a prospect. He’s a two-pitch starter with roughly average velocity, which doesn’t sound exciting; but one of those pitches is his devastating splitter, and he sets it up adeptly with a four-seam fastball. Batters struggle to differentiate the two pitches, which come out of his hand at similar angles before diverging by roughly two feet vertically.

It’s fair to wonder how sustainable that is, but it worked quite well this year, and that’s two years in a row at this point. Teams may not get a guaranteed Cy Young contender, but they also won’t pay those marquee prices. Few pitchers are even capable of throwing 192 innings of 2.81 ERA excellence, so some team will absolutely give him a multi-year chance to continue his two-pitch experiment.

Player Notes
I was born and raised in the land of Old Bay and gritty David Simon cop dramas, so I will always have a great deal of affection for Gausman, but 2021 was the first season in which his performance actually matched my warm feelings. There are usually a lot of reasons for a team outperforming expectations by more than 30 wins, and Gausman settling in as a durable ace was one of San Francisco’s big ones. My complaint about Gausman’s repertoire earlier in his career was that he never developed a killer breaking pitch to go along with his heavy fastball and nasty splitter, as seen by the fact that he was one of the relatively rare starting pitchers with long-term reverse platoon splits. He didn’t actually develop that pitch, but he did the next best thing, using the lively splitter in locations and counts against righties as if it was a slider, which paid off to tremendous effect.

Gausman was less effective late in the season, but not so much that I’m apprehensive about his near future. He nearly matched his career-high for batters faced in a season, coming off one artificially shortened campaign and another in which he spent the end of the season as a reliever. Even if he’s not a top Cy Young contender going forward, I think he makes a great case for being somewhere at the back of the top 20 starting pitchers in baseball. – DS

Ben’s Take
Sadly, this list isn’t “Top 49 Free Agents Plus a Shrug Emoji.” I have legitimately no idea what to make of Syndergaard, who missed all of 2020 and threw a grand total of 10 competitive innings in 2021. His velocity was way down, hardly surprising given the rust, and he didn’t throw a breaking pitch in either of his major league innings. Teams will see more behind closed doors, but it’s still a mystery box situation: clubs could get 2019 Syndergaard, which would mean he’s far too low on this list, but they also might get a rusty pitcher who needs a year to get back into form.

If I were Syndergaard, I’d likely pursue a pillow contract, either by accepting a qualifying offer (as I’ve projected for him here) or simply agreeing to a one-year deal with another team. It’s tough to imagine a team shelling out a long-term deal that pays Syndergaard what he surely thinks he’s worth; he’s a rotation-anchoring starter when healthy, after all. One year to re-establish that baseline might be beneficial for everyone involved.

Player Notes
Though he has never been as dominant as he was during his incredible 2016 season, Syndergaard was still a front-end arm in ‘18 and ‘19 after missing most of 2017 with a lat tear. Then he suffered a UCL tear during 2020 spring training and missed most of the last two seasons rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, dealing with a couple of setbacks (elbow inflammation and COVID) along the way. As a result, he ended up making just five total appearances in 2021: three minor league rehab starts and two single-inning big league outings. He sat 92-95 mph in the August 26 rehab outing for which data is publicly available, then sat 96 in his first big league start before falling back into the 92-94 range in his second after a week of rest. Syndergaard also limited his usage to fastballs and changeups. Teams tend to take expensive, short-term fliers on pitchers like this, à la Garrett Richards and Blake Treinen.

Healthy Syndergaard would just be the best pitcher on the market, and the possibility that he might again be an impact piece means he’ll be highly sought after. But teams who aren’t inclined to take a $12-15 million gamble because failure to hit on a free agent of that magnitude would be fatal to their contention hopes will probably be less inclined to engage with Syndergaard at a competitive price because of how his stuff looked during his brief periods of health in 2021. – EL

Ben’s Take
At this point, Taylor and “can he keep this up?” questions go hand-in-hand. To me, they seem overblown: he’s compiled 2,382 plate appearances since the start of the 2017 season and is hitting .265/.343/.461 over that time period, solidly above average. The positional versatility is great, too.

Depending on what you think of his defense, he’s somewhere between solid regular and star, a valuable player either way. Given the Dodgers’ huge class of free agents, Taylor might be plying his trade elsewhere next year. It will be interesting to see how another team will utilize his versatility, and to see whether they can keep his bat in high gear — but at this point, expecting him to turn back into the low-power 25-year-old the Dodgers first acquired is foolish.

Player Notes
Before a season-ending 8-for-72 slump took some of the shine off his final numbers (.254/.344/438, 113 wRC+, 3.1 WAR), Taylor earned his first All-Star berth while helping the Dodgers weather the injuries of Seager and Cody Bellinger. The mechanical adjustments he made prior to the 2020 season have helped him rein in his long swing and take a more disciplined approach; he set full-season career highs in O-Swing% (24.7%), walk rate (10.8%) and barrel rate (10.2%), though on that last mark, he remains the poster boy for the Dodgers’ “barrels are overrated” ethos, as his overall quality of contact stats remains middling.

Taylor once again put the super in superutilityman, making 48 starts in center field, 33 at second base, 19 at shortstop, 16 in left, and nine at third. He’s no fielding whiz, but that versatility goes a long way, and as the heir to the tradition of Ben Zobrist, he’s in line for a Zobristian multiyear deal, though a return to the Dodgers might depend upon Seager’s whereabouts. – JJ

Ben’s Take
A year ago, the White Sox non-tendered Rodón. The former top prospect had seen injuries derail his career, and he signed a prove-it deal in his last year before free agency. He proved it: he started throwing 99 mph, pitched a ton of innings, and threw a no-hitter that put a punctuation mark on his sudden ascent to prominence.

Did he wear down as the season ground on? Indubitably. Try throwing more than 50 innings for the first time since 2017 (he finished with 135 IP counting the playoffs) and see how your arm feels. When Rodón is right, he’s simply overpowering, the kind of top-of-rotation monster teams dream about. How likely that monster is to appear is an open question — in fact, the White Sox chose not to extend Rodón a Qualifying Offer, which presumably means they aren’t trying to retain him and worry he might accept it.

If you’re signing Rodón, you’ll need to do so with a plan to get the most out of him — you’ll need some good upper-minors pitching to shoulder some innings. That narrows the field, but might create a value for a team constructed to harness his upside. If I’m signing Rodón, I want several bites at the apple, which is why I’m projecting a medium-AAV, four-year deal. That gives whichever team signs him multiple looks at another Cy-caliber season while spreading the cost out.

Player Notes
After years of injuries, ineffectiveness, or a combination of the two, Rodón finally put it all together in 2021, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in baseball. His 4.9 WAR was third among all AL pitchers, behind only Nathan Eovaldi (5.6) and Gerrit Cole (5.3), even though he threw roughly 50 fewer innings than either. As you’d expect, then, Rodón dominated in the rate stats, leading the AL in ERA, FIP, and strikeout rate just to name a few. The rebound was clouded somewhat by recurring injury issues, including left shoulder fatigue that kept Rodón to just 28 innings from August 1 through the end of the regular season. The shoulder is probably of greatest concern for teams interested in signing him this winter, but the rest of the profile looks outstanding. He recorded a ton of swings-and-misses and limited hitters to nothing more than weak contact when the ball was put in play. What else could you want?

The downside, though, is that he’s only topped 150 innings once in his career, and a long-term deal may be a risky proposition given the injury history as well as the fatigue and diminished velocity he showed down the stretch; Chicago’s decision not to extend him a Qualifying Offer clouds things further. On a per-inning basis, I’d argue that Rodón has a case for being the best starting pitcher on our list, but significant volume concerns have relegated him to the back half of the teens. – DF

Ben’s Take
Kershaw is still a premium pitcher — in fact, he posted his lowest FIP and xFIP, and highest strikeout rate since 2017 this year. He’s also an injury risk — he hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2015, and has only crested 170 innings pitched twice in that span. The end might be near, or a long way off. The Dodgers only added to the intrigue when they chose not to extend Kershaw a qualifying offer. I had his market pegged higher before that decision, and I’m not sure what to make of it — I’m still projecting him to make more than the qualifying offer, but there are some wide error bars around my projection, to put it mildly. An elbow injury that ended his season adds to the confusion — he won’t need Tommy John surgery, but elbow injuries are never welcome signs.

Ultimately, I think he’ll take a short deal to return to the Dodgers, but it’s fun and strange at the same time to picture him in a different jersey. If he leaves, his next contract could resemble Justin Verlander on the Astros — or Zack Greinke on the Astros. That wide range makes him one of the most compelling free agents, in addition to one of the best.

Player Notes
It’s tempting to assume that Kershaw, who has reached free agency for the first time, isn’t heading anywhere new. The last time he was here (after opting out of his contract in 2018), he lingered on the market for about 10 seconds before re-upping with the Dodgers on a three-year, $93 million deal that extended his previous contract by a year. That second pact has now reached its conclusion, and he came out the other end still pitching like an ace, age and all.

To be fair, “and all” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Kershaw didn’t make it to the finish line in 2021, missing out on the final two months of the season with a forearm strain that turned into elbow pain and cost him the entirety of Los Angeles’ postseason run. The good news is there’s no ligament damage; the bad news is, well, the fact that a soon-to-be 34-year-old pitcher who’s thrown nearly 2,500 career innings was experiencing elbow pain, and the Dodgers’ decision not to extend a Qualifying Offer is ominous. But assuming Kershaw checks out health-wise, his upside and track record will far outweigh that worry, particularly for a team that could use a top-of-the-rotation starter for a championship run. And hey, that perfectly describes the Dodgers, whose 2022 rotation is currently Walker Buehler, Julio Urías, and a whole lot of question marks, and who watched their title defense go up in smoke in part because of Kershaw’s absence. He doesn’t like to rock the boat, and they’re not likely to throw him overboard; the safe bet here is that he returns to the only team he’s ever known on another short-term contract with a high AAV. – JT

Ben’s Take
Oh, you thought Carlos Rodón was a wild card? Verlander threw all of six innings in 2020 and didn’t pitch at all in 2021. He’s also 38, not exactly an age associated with fast recoveries. On the other hand, Verlander is a unicorn; he was one of the most durable pitchers in the game before his elbow blew out, topping 200 innings pitched in 12 of the previous 13 seasons.

The Astros plan on extending Verlander a qualifying offer, and it wouldn’t be a shock if he accepted it. For Verlander, working with the team that keyed his late-career success might be a draw. On the other hand, a bag full of money is also a powerful draw, and if the medicals look good, he might be able to coax a longer deal out of someone desperate for premium pitching. The most likely outcome is still a reunion in Houston, but I don’t think it’s a done deal.

Player Notes
A Tommy John surgery recipient in the summer of 2020, you can look at Verlander one of two ways. The optimistic view is that an 18-month break isn’t the worst thing for a pitcher who will be 39 in February and is on the cusp of 3,000 career innings, and he’s still Justin Verlander, now with a new UCL. The pessimistic view is that gambling on the surgically reconstructed elbow of a 39-year-old who’s thrown more innings than all but one active pitcher — former Astros teammate Zack Greinke, visibly running on fumes — and has missed the last two seasons is, to put it mildly, completely wild behavior.

The long layoff (and likely high price tag) will scare away plenty of would-be suitors, and Verlander’s market will be further complicated by the presence of Max Scherzer, the other future Hall of Famer and free agent whose elbow ligaments are very much intact, thanks for asking. (If Kershaw decides to leave L.A., that will muddy up the waters even more.) Not that his end of the free-agent pool was going to be anything but shallow; like Scherzer and Kershaw, Verlander will be targeted exclusively by contenders who won’t mind paying him a lot so long as they don’t have to pay him for long. That should fit him to a tee, and it helps that he was brilliant in two-plus seasons with Houston. Plus, coming back from devastating injuries is kind of his thing. So long as his new team accepts that his first steps back might be wobbly, he seems poised to contribute quality innings for a World Series hopeful. – JT

Ben’s Take
For two weeks this year, Schwarber was the best hitter on Earth. The rest of the year, he looked like vintage Adam Dunn; walks, strikeouts, and homers galore, with little else going on. He’s likely headed for first base permanently; he’s not getting any faster, and he was already a dicey left fielder at best.

That kind of lefty power bat isn’t always in high demand without defensive value, but Schwarber is good enough that he’ll still get paid for those increasingly common skills. He’s also still only 28, so there are probably plenty of good years left in his bat, and if you’re an optimist, you can see the potential for more walks in his improving plate discipline.

He may not be a perennial All-Star, and there will always be health issues given his uneven history there, but the gap in value between Schwarber and some power-only quad-A slugger you can find on the scrap heap is wide enough that he’ll likely get a solid deal out of his 2021 power surge from one of many teams with a fluid first base situation.

Player Notes
Last December, following a subpar campaign, Schwarber was non-tendered by the Cubs, thus beginning their teardown. The stocky slugger landed on his feet, though his season was rather uneven; he hit for a 103 wRC+ with nine homers in April and May before going on a 16-homer, 183 wRC+ binge in June. He played just two more games for Washington before a right hamstring strain sidelined him for six weeks, and when he returned, he was trying to learn first base for the Red Sox, which wasn’t pretty but shouldn’t be judged via 10 games worth of bad metrics. Most importantly, he continued to thump, finishing with 32 homers, 3.1 WAR, and career bests across the board via a .266/.374/.554 (145 wRC+) line.

Schwarber benefited from a more disciplined approach, swinging at a career-low 23.3% of pitches outside the zone and a career high of 67.6% in the zone. He annihilated four-seamers and sinkers even better than in 2019, and set career bests in barrel and hard-hit rates (17.5% and 52.5%, respectively); his actual numbers were a ringer for Statcast’s expected ones. Given three straight years in the red for his outfield defense (pick your metric), the universal DH would certainly improve his market. – JJ

Ben’s Take
García was comfortably the best bat in the Milwaukee outfield this year, continuing his five-year pattern of alternately mashing or disappointing. This year was the best-looking yet, though, which raises the prospect that García has leveled up as he oscillates around average.

Always a free swinger with contact issues, García leaned into his identity by swinging more often at first pitches, particularly first-pitch fastballs. That helped him unlock a bit of power; his 13 first-pitch extra base hits were in the top 20 in baseball. He’s always had plus raw power, as evidenced by his 98th percentile max exit velocity; it’s a matter of getting to it in games, and getting aggressive seemed to help.

Corner outfielders with pop aren’t exceedingly rare, but I think enough teams will be interested in García that he’ll get a decent raise on his most recent deal, a two-year, $19.5 million pact. You’ll notice that I have him pegged for a lower AAV (and in most cases fewer years) than the free agents around him on the list. That’s because I just think he’ll be that much of a bargain. If a team can’t get one of the top outfield/DH bats on the market, I don’t think they can do better for a short-term contract than García.

Player Notes
García is a nice two-to-four win corner outfielder who nonetheless can still drive a team crazy. As has been the case since he signed with the Detroit Tigers out of Venezuela in 2007, some of García’s tools rate with the best in baseball. His raw power approaches the rarified air of an 80 grade, and despite carrying somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 pounds on his bulky, 6-foot-4 frame, he’s a plus runner, and even better underway. He’s also a good defensive outfielder, and his arm is a weapon. There’s just that pesky hitting tool that keeps getting in the way. While García has tightened up his strike zone a bit over the last few seasons, he remains a streaky, overly-aggressive hitter who is prone to chasing and can get beat by good breaking balls pretty consistently. That, combined with his propensity to land on the injured list once or twice a season, has limited him to being a valuable player as opposed to a star. He’ll likely begin free agency as the primary backup plan for teams that start by aiming for some of the bigger outfielders names. – KG

Ben’s Take
Perhaps no free agent hitter faces a more uncertain market than Conforto. A sterling 2020 was a great runway for his walk year, which could make him a top free agent outfielder this offseason.

To put it mildly, that didn’t quite work out. Conforto was both hurt and ineffective this year. He struggled to a 106 wRC+ over 479 plate appearances. He did improve as a hamstring injury healed — a 118 wRC+ in the second half keyed by a white-hot August is a good sign — but he’s not the slam dunk All-Star outfielder he looked like a year ago.

The crowd is predicting an accepted qualifying offer, and I don’t hate it. It would give Conforto a platform to rebuild his value and let him dodge CBA uncertainty. If I’m any of a number of teams looking for impact outfielders, though, I’d try to make it a tough decision for him. The upside is still here, and if you offer him a multi-year deal with an AAV in the $20 million range, he’d likely take it. I’m just not sure that anyone will do it — which is why I have him accepting a QO.

Player Notes
Are Conforto’s bout with COVID and his 2021 hamstring injury viable explanations for his power swoon? Or is he experiencing an early physical decline? Conforto slugged a career-low .384 in 2021, well below both his career average (.468) and his 2020 mark (.515). His xSLG indicates that some of this downturn is just bad luck, as Statcast saw him as a .430 SLG hitter in 2021 based on his quality of contact. That’s still well below his career norms, but also the power output of a viable everyday corner outfielder if indeed Conforto ends up hitting at that level going forward. There’s no other season-long data point (like Conforto’s Sprint Speed, high-end exit velos as a proxy for strength, etc.) that would indicate his hamstring or the fallout from COVID altered him physically, as all those metrics were inline with prior norms.

Instead maybe Conforto’s issue was with the shift. Conforto went from being shifted in half his 2020 plate appearances to being shifted roughly two third of the time in ‘21. While teams may have made a relevant adjustment to Conforto in this regard, it’s unlikely to prevent him from being a good big league hitter in the immediate future on its own. He has fantastic control of the strike zone (his walk rate is among the top 40 qualified hitters since his debut season and his K% is in line with league average) and a platoon advantage most of the time. Will Conforto try to take a short-term deal in an effort to reboot some of his market value, or will a team that thinks they’re effectively buying low on a heart-of-the-order hitter be able to tempt him with a long-term deal? – EL

Ben’s Take
Canha is better than you think. Now that you’ve re-evaluated him based on me saying that: re-evaluate him higher again. He’s better than that. Four straight seasons from a multi-position player with a 115 wRC+ or higher is no joke, even if his defensive value is more “pick an outfield corner, any outfield corner” than truly multi-positional.

Given that he’s already 32, teams probably won’t bowl Canha over with a lengthy offer. Players of his ilk often end up signing a flurry of one- and two-year deals, with the next one contingent on performance in the current deal. That’s surely frustrating for someone with Canha’s track record, but on the other hand, picking what city to live in and making $15 million while you decide if you like it there doesn’t seem so bad.

The only place I’d rule out is Oakland; I think Canha is likely to be too pricey for the Athletics’ liking, particularly given how they’ve handled past departing free agents. Aside from that, Canha fits anywhere that can spare an outfield corner spot, and he can fake first base in a pinch or rotate through DH. Walks, doubles, and homers combine to make for a useful player at any of those positions.

Player Notes
In many ways, Mark Canha is the quintessential Oakland Athletic. He was never considered a significant prospect, just another guy who could draw walks, hit the odd home run, and didn’t have an obvious defensive position at which he excelled. The Marlins were so uninterested in Canha after drafting him that while he was hitting .303/.384/.505 for Triple-A New Orleans in 2014, Miami preferred having 37-year-old Reed Johnson as their go-to utility outfielder. Canha never got into a single game for the Marlins, and the A’s, knowing that finding guys like him is key to their strategy of never spending a lot of money, acquired him for minor leaguer Austin House, by way of the Colorado Rockies.

Canha was the starting first baseman practically immediately, albeit with mixed results. His 2016 was ruined by surgery on his left hip, and in ’17, he slumped his way to a stint in the minors and required offseason wrist surgery. Pleasantly surprised by how not-awful Canha had been in center, Oakland used him there aggressively in 2018. Since the start of that season, he’s hit .249/.366/.441 (good for a 126 wRC+), so while he lacks the infield abilities of a Tony Phillips or an Enrique Hernández, the A’s could play him at first or any outfield position without any real hesitation.

Thirty-three for the 2022 season, it’s unlikely Canha will match his .273/.396/.517 line from 2019, his likely peak. But if he can get on base at a .350 clip, hit 20 homers, and not be an embarrassment in center, he has a varied enough skillset to make his next team happy for the next few years. After all, it’s not like he’s heading for a blockbuster deal. I do think the end for Canha will come quickly when it happens; he’s an aging fastball hitter and likely to be dominated by righties once his bat speed slows significantly, leaving him with a future role as a Wes Helms-type reserve. – DS

Ben’s Take
Iglesias has been a reliever for six years, and he’s posted an ERA above 3.00 only once. ERA can be finicky, but everything about his performance has always looked the part. In 2021, he turned in his best performance yet, as he paired a 37.7% strikeout rate with a 4.4% walk rate, both the best marks of his career.

Like many converted starters, Iglesias is all fastballs and sliders against righties, then swaps in changeups for sliders against lefties. All three pitches serve him well; both secondaries are excellent, and his four-seamer (with occasional sinker cameos) gets the job done. It might not be upper 90s gas with an unhittable slider, but his way of doing things works just as well.

The main thing holding Iglesias back from a bigger deal is his age. 32-year-old relievers aren’t generally hot commodities, and he’ll turn 32 before the start of next season. Liam Hendriks is probably the ceiling for old relievers, and he got $54 million over four years (ish). That likely means Iglesias will come in a bit below that, though still make a princely sum.

Player Notes
As good as Kenley Jansen’s bounce back 2021 campaign was, Iglesias’ was even better, and he’s two years younger to boot. He also possesses a skill that the Angels frankly didn’t utilize enough: he’s both capable of and comfortable with getting more than three outs to close out a win. Like many late-inning relievers, Iglesias possesses an upper 90s fastball and a sharp slider, but his outstanding changeup makes him tougher to predict and nearly neutralizes any kind of platoon advantage. The biggest story for Iglesias in 2021 was a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk rate, as his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 103-to-12 in just 70 innings is the stuff of Mariano and Eck. This is the best closer in the class, and a durable one at that. In a world that’s starting to embrace some out-of-the-box thinking when it comes to pitcher utilization, putting Iglesias in a role that allows him to reach 100-plus innings of high-leverage relief could pay off handsomely. – KG

Ben’s Take
Jansen reinvented his game with diversification; he threw a career-low 58% cutters this year and supplemented them with a sinker and slider. He also started throwing harder, posting his best velocity since 2017. The result was a 2.22 ERA, though some of his peripherals were concerning; he gave up a ton of walks and got tons of help from his defense (.213 BABIP against). He’s probably not as good as his ERA, but there’s plenty of room to have worse than a 2.22 ERA and still be a good closer. That’s where Jansen sits, and he’s an intriguing case where adding to his arsenal might offset aging, at least for a little bit.

At 34, I think teams will want to keep offers short, but even with the walks, there’s a ton to like here: he’s always suppressed hard contact, he still strikes out a ton, and someone (likely the Dodgers) will pay to park him at the top of the bullpen. I have him down for two years, but a one-year deal for more money wouldn’t surprise me, nor would a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third. He’ll be an interesting case study in what teams will pay for proven relievers.

Player Notes
A slightly more vertical release point and much more varied pitch deployment (Jansen has gone from throwing 88% cutters in 2019 to 58% cutters and many more four-seamers and curveballs in ‘21) have helped Jansen continue his dominance into his mid-30s, and he was more consistent in 2021 than in ‘20 even though his rate stats in both years were similar. Jansen’s four-seamers averaged 93.9 mph in 2021, tied for the firmest heater of his illustrious career. That, as well as his dominant postseason performance (7 IP, 14 K, 1 BB) will likely give prospective suitors confidence that Jansen can continue to perform at a level befitting a late-inning reliever for at least another couple of years. – EL

Player Notes
As he’s matured, Gomes has calmed the wild year-to-year fluctuations in his game. That’s probably for the best, as the yo-yo from 2014 Silver Slugger winner to 30-wRC+-haver to 2018 All-Star seems a little stressful for my tastes. Now 34, Gomes has settled in as a fringe-average bat with good defense behind the plate and a great clubhouse presence to boot. Given the dearth of available alternatives and the dire need most teams have for anything resembling competent hitting from their backstop, Gomes is well-positioned to get a substantial raise from the $5 million he earned last season. – BG

Player Notes
Now 41-years-old, Nelson Cruz almost certainly won’t get more than a one-year contract. Of course, some version of that sentence has been applicable for use on this list for the last several years and likely will continue to be for several more to come, with the only necessary edit being upping the slugger’s age by one. On the surface, it looks like there were a few signs of aging starting to catch up to Cruz in 2021, as he slugged under .500 for the first time since ‘12. But in terms of the metrics teams lean on far more than back-of-the-baseball-card numbers, he still looks very much like the Nelson Cruz everyone knows and loves. He actually swung-and-missed at a dramatically lower rate than in the previous two seasons, and his exit velocities have remained fairly steady. Age catches up to everyone at some point, but there is little evidence to suggest that it’s catching up to Cruz, and another .850 OPS season with his usual positive impact on the clubhouse feels like a safe bet even with him turning 42 next July. – KG

Player Notes
Thanks to a more favorable ballpark configuration and < href=”https://theathletic.com/2660705/2021/06/30/they-say-youre-done-how-giants-are-coaching-brandon-crawford-other-vets-to-new-heights/”>a new coaching staff bringing a philosophy that clicked with so many of the Giants’ veterans, Belt has hit for more power over the past two seasons — .285/.393/.595 (163 wRC+) with 37 homers in 560 PA — than ever before. Despite middling average exit velocities that owe at least something to his shift-beating bunts (on which he went 5-for-7 in 2021), his 17% barrel rate in that span places him in the 96th percentile, and his 13.9% walk rate in the 93rd percentile.

Belt’s defense has slipped a bit according to the variety of metrics, but as ever, the real knock on him is durability. In 2021 he lost six weeks due to right knee inflammation and served additional IL stints for an oblique strain and a fractured left thumb; over the past decade, he’s played in just 77% of the Giants’ games, only some of which is due to his latter-day woes against lefties (89 wRC+ since 2017). Buster Posey’s sudden retirement increases the likelihood of Belt’s return, but if not, he’ll attract plenty of interest from other contenders. – JJ

Player Notes
The good news here is that Rizzo’s underlying skills seem largely intact. His walk and strikeout percentages have barely budged since his heyday. Ditto his exit velocities and hard hit metrics. There are year-to-year performative fluctuations against lefties and pitch types, but no red flags.

The bad news is that Rizzo’s numbers have declined anyway. 2021 was the worst year of his career (unless 2020 counts) and his power numbers in particular were down. A few trends explain why. His BABIP, never particularly high to begin with, is under .250 since the start of 2020. Perhaps relatedly, he’s not doubling very often anymore; he hit 29 in 2020 and ‘21 combined after averaging 34 in his five previous seasons. I’m not sure why this is happening, but I don’t think it’s the shift: In a reversal of career norms, Rizzo actually hit better against shifts than defenses playing straight up last year. More likely it’s a positioning issue, with deeper defenses turning some of his doubles into loud outs and long singles. It could also just be a lousy BABIP streak, and if so, there may even be a little upside here.

– BG

Player Notes
I’m highly disappointed that Kyle Seager is done with the Mariners, but it was almost inevitable once contract incentives increased the value of his 2022 option year from $15 million to $20 million. While it was a little odd to see Seager be one of the finalists for the Silver Slugger award at third base given his .723 OPS, the fact that managers and coaches voted that way is indicative of the respect that he earned in his decade in Seattle.

That being said, a team looking at Seager has to be realistic about what they’re getting at this point. He recovered from a career-worst 2018 season but never got close to his 2013-16 peak, and is now well into the years where you expect his decline to accelerate. But there’s still a lot to like so long as a team’s expectations are in-line with his abilities. He still hits for power that may play better in a smaller park, and he remains a capable defensive third baseman. There aren’t any intriguing third basemen who’ll still be in their 20s come Opening Day 2022, meaning there’s a good argument to be made for a contending team to sign Seager to a rich one-year contract if Kris Bryant proves too rich for their blood. – DS

Player Notes
Sentenced to the harsh and borderline cruel punishment of having to pitch in the AL East, Matz was a surprisingly positive and stable presence in the back of Toronto’s rotation, making 29 starts and throwing 150.2 innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball. And while the overall numbers weren’t anything special or pretty, they were both a massive improvement from his dreadful 2020 and in line with his better years on the Mets, suggesting that the pandemic-shortened season was more blip, or at least worst-case scenario, than ominous portent. Still, the upside here no longer feels very high. A sinker-first pitcher like Matz will always live or die with his defense, and the Jays’ piecemeal and sluggish infield did him no favors in that regard. Nor is there anything in his profile to suggest there’s another level to reach, barring a massive change in velocity, arsenal or approach. By this point, Matz is what he is: a mid-tier starter with good control who’ll toss a gem every now and again. You can do better, but you can also do far worse. – JT

Player Notes
Perhaps it’s unfair for the industry to have expected more from Gray, and for it to have expected the Rockies to coax more out of the former third overall pick. After all, Gray has produced between 2.5 and 3.5 WAR in each full season of his major league career and is ranked 32nd in WAR among qualified starters since his debut, ahead of Eduardo Rodriguez, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell during that span. His 4.59 career ERA is excellent for having pitched in Coors, and he has, shockingly, slightly better home splits than road. He’s done that despite dramatic year-to-year fluctuations in fastball velocity. As Gray’s career has progressed he’s added pitches and increased their usage: backing off of his fastball, adding a second breaking ball, and mixing in more changeups over the last two seasons. Leaving Coors may enable him to pitch toward the top of the strike zone with his fastball more often without as much fear of being punished by the long ball. That could unlock a bat-missing gear we haven’t seen here yet. Gray enters free agency as a somewhat inefficient mid-rotation arm with upside created by room for a change to how he attacks hitters. – EL

Player Notes
It’s amazing that McHugh made this list, much less as one of its top relief options. An elbow injury dogged his 2019 and kept him out for the start of the ‘20 season, and he ultimately chose to opt out. Unsigned until mid-February, he latched on with the Rays for just $1.8 million in a move that looked more like a contender adding cheap depth than a high-leverage arm. Instead, he ended up being one of Tampa Bay’s most effective, reliable and durable relievers, posting a 1.55 ERA and career-low walk and home-run rates. His numbers are near replicas of his excellent 2018 in Houston, but that success was built on a fastball-slider-curveball combo. With the Rays, he ditched the curve and throttled back on his four-seamer, instead embracing the slider, which he threw half the time, and a cutter that he hadn’t used regularly since his last days as a starter. That change worked wonders: Batters hit just .177 against the slider, and the cutter — 3 mph slower than his fastball but with more spin and vertical break — helped keep them guessing. If his good health holds