J.D. Davis Is Leading the Mets’ Charge

As Ben Clemens succinctly put it on Tuesday, “Here come the Mets.” If you have read Ben’s piece, I’m not going to bore you with the same details. If you haven’t, you should go do so.

In short, the Mets were bad, and now they’re good. But even with this current stretch of newfound dominance, their seemingly high-octane offseason remains a mixed bag. Edwin Díaz and Robinson Canó still haven’t lived up to their high expectations after being brought in from Seattle, Jed Lowrie hasn’t played a single game due to a calf injury, and Jeurys Familia won’t stop walking hitters. For all the talk about how good the Mets’ offseason was, it’s still not those players who are leading the charge. That is, save for this one obvious exception:

The Mets’ Offseason Acquisitions by WAR
Player Position Acquired PA/BF 2019 WAR
J.D. Davis INF/OF Trade (Houston) 297 1.6
Robinson Canó INF Trade (Seattle) 346 0.4
Wilson Ramos C Free Agent 364 0.3
Edwin Díaz RP Trade (Seattle) 196 0.2
Justin Wilson RP Free Agent 89 0.0
Luis Avilán RP Free Agent 81 0.0
Jed Lowrie INF Free Agent 0 0.0
Adeiny Hechavarría INF Free Agent 147 -0.1
Jeurys Familia RP Free Agent 173 -0.5
Stats through games played on Tuesday, August 6.

In a sense, J.D. Davis has been the Mets’ savior. As they’ve heated up, he has not only been one of their best offensive players but also one of the best bats in baseball. In the 30-day period between July 8 and August 6 — as the Mets’ playoff odds have increased by 35 points — Davis has slashed .385/.468/.615 in 77 plate appearances. His 187 wRC+ during this time is the seventh-highest in baseball. His defense has limited his overall value a touch, but even still, his 0.9 WAR in this time period ranks 32nd out of 181 qualified position players. Read the rest of this entry »


Nelson Cruz Won’t Stop

The other day I wrote about Shin-Soo Choo and the way he’s hitting the ball really hard despite being a 37-year-old who has never garnered much of a reputation as a power hitter. In that piece, I included a chart that showed Choo was having the second-best season in terms of hard-hit percentage by a player 35 years of age or older since we started gathering such data in 2002. Choo was deserving of the digital ink used on him, but as impressed as I was with his placement on that chart, the most remarkable player listed was the one directly above him. The hard-hit rate that Choo had put together that ranked second on that list was 46.7%. No. 1 on that list was 2019 Nelson Cruz, whose hard contact rate currently rests at a whopping 55%. He’s 39 years old, and he’s hitting the ball hard more often than anyone else in baseball. He also just wrapped up one of the hottest two-week stretches you’ll ever see.

On the morning of July 22nd, Cruz was in the middle of yet another strong season at the plate. His slash line was .270/.364/.543 with 19 homers in 71 games. Even as a designated hitter, that’ll play on just about any team. Then all hell broke loose.

Offensive totals, July 22 — Aug. 6
Player BA OBP SLG HR RBI wOBA wRC+ WAR
Nelson Cruz 0.460 0.526 1.300 13 27 0.699 352 1.9
Next-closest player 0.429 0.500 0.816 7 20 0.516 229 1.2

Look, it is usually best not to fuss too much over a hot streak that is over a sample size this small. The baseball season is long, and because of that, there will be many, many players who throw together a torrid two-week stretch or two. In that table, the next-best players in those categories ranged from Anthony Rendon to Andrew Benintendi to Mike Tauchman. Those players should all feel very happy and proud of the way they’ve been playing baseball, but unless your name is Mike Trout, there is a very good chance that an amazing two-week stretch of baseball will not be followed with another two-week stretch that is just as amazing. This is just the way the game works, and there’s no use in getting too excited over what is only around 50 plate appearances, about 1/12th of your season or less. Read the rest of this entry »


What Remains of Clayton Kershaw

For major league pitchers, the end always feels depressingly close at hand. In a game increasingly dominated by power and velocity, losing a tick can be the difference between sneaking a fastball past someone and watching a home run trot. Throw in elbow injuries, blisters, and hitters obsessively watching video looking for any exploitable edge, and it’s a miracle that any pitchers can sustain success.

Clayton Kershaw is no exception to this pattern. He may be the greatest pitcher of the 21st century, but that doesn’t give him special immunity from velocity loss or a license to avoid injury. Gone are the days of Kershaw posting sub-2 ERAs regularly. That’s partially due to the changing offensive environment, to be sure, but it’s also a reflection of the fact that Kershaw is aging. His strikeout rate fell last year to the lowest rate since his rookie season, a pedestrian 23.9%. He made less than 30 starts for a third straight season. His fastball velocity declined 1.5 mph. Age comes for everyone, or so it seems.

When Kershaw returned from a season-opening IL stint, he did so with old-man wiles. His velocity was down another tick, now approaching 90 mph. As Ben Lindbergh ably chronicled, Kershaw’s plan was to stick with what worked in 2018 and survive on sliders and first-pitch strikes. He became perhaps the most extreme pitcher in baseball, piping in first strikes nearly three-quarters of the time and afterward departing the strike zone entirely. He accomplished that trick by throwing his fastball 61% of the time to open at-bats and only 33% of the time after that.

However, even these extreme changes couldn’t hide the fact that Kershaw was slipping. At roughly the midpoint of the season, July 1st, Kershaw was 36th in WAR among pitchers, sandwiched between Kyle Gibson and Sonny Gray. He was marginally better, 24th, by RA9-WAR, but even there, it was weird seeing Kershaw’s name next to Yonny Chirinos and Zach Eflin. Some of this came from a limited workload, but his 3.23 ERA and 3.76 FIP told the same story. It wasn’t just the ball, either: his 77 ERA- and 89 FIP- were his highest since his rookie year, and his 22.7% strikeout rate was down even from last year’s low level. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: MLB Machine Learning Engineer

Position: Machine Learning Engineer, Baseball Data

Location: New York, NY

Reports to: Director, Software Engineering, Baseball Data

Description:
Major League Baseball’s Technology team is renowned for creating experiences that baseball fans love.

They’re looking for an expert in Machine Learning to create the code powering Major League Baseball. The Baseball Data team is tasked with analyzing the data captured on the field. With the launch of Statcast in 2015, MLB began tracking ball and player movements for each and every play. This role will involve combining their various data sources with video in near real-time to further their understanding of what is happening on the field.

This position offers the opportunity to collaborate with other world-class engineers, data scientists, product developers, and designers; contribute to award-winning and complex apps and systems; influence the innovation of products used by millions globally; and work in a highly collaborative, results-oriented, team environment.

Using bleeding edge technology, their software is consumed by fans, broadcasters, stadiums, MLB Clubs and the league itself. They are looking for Engineers that are passionate about building new technologies for the baseball industry, and this role will help usher in the next generation of experiences for fans of all ages!

Core Responsibilities:

  • Brainstorm, discuss, and drive new advanced technology solutions for MLB products
  • Build scalable machine learning algorithms
  • Influence the innovation of products used by millions of users worldwide
  • Present and explain complex models to non-technical stakeholders
  • Introduce technologies you feel passionate about

Qualifications:

  • Masters or PhD in Computer Science with a focus in machine learning
  • 3+ years experience working with machine learning
  • Deep knowledge of machine learning and statistical predictive modeling
  • Experience with numpy, pandas, and scikit Python libraries
  • Real-world application experience implementing CNNs, or RNNs/LSTMs
  • Deep Learning Tools – Tensorflow, Theano, Caffe, etc.

To Apply:
To apply, please visit this site and complete the application.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by Major League Baseball.


Effectively Wild Episode 1414: Follow the Leader

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller banter about Mike Trout’s 28th birthday, the stats he’s led the league in, and the stats he still might lead the league in for the first time, the Mets’ recent hot streak and the way in which their season has been both tumultuous and predictable, Max Muncy and a cycle/walk-off triple attempt, and whether the basepaths should be wider, then answer listener emails about the best era in which to hit for the cycle, how teams should decide whether they’re out of contention, and baseball without timeouts, plus email-inspired Stat Blasts about whether it’s good to get a lot of walk-off wins and whether pitchers should swing away with the bases loaded and one out.

Audio intro: Stephen Malkmus & The Jicks, "Forever 28"
Audio outro: The Breeders, "Walk it Off"

Link to Ben on Trout’s league leadership
Link to Sam on walk-off triples
Link to Phil Birnbaum on forecasting team wins
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Mike Trout Without WAR

As Mike Trout celebrates his 28th birthday today, he’s arguably the greatest baseball player of all time at his age. The case is a fairly easy one to make. Here’s what our Leaderboards look like for all players through their age-27 season.

Best Position Players Through Age-27 Seasons
Name Team G PA WAR
Mike Trout Angels 1173 5157 72.5
Ty Cobb Tigers 1241 5258 68.8
Mickey Mantle Yankees 1246 5409 67.9
Rogers Hornsby Cardinals 1119 4768 64.6
Jimmie Foxx Athletics 1256 5239 64.6
Alex Rodriguez – – – 1275 5687 62.0
Mel Ott Giants 1438 5988 61.5
Ken Griffey Jr. Mariners 1214 5262 57.0
Tris Speaker – – – 1065 4551 54.4
Eddie Collins Athletics 1013 4294 53.7
Eddie Mathews Braves 1177 5139 53.5
Albert Pujols Cardinals 1091 4741 53.5
Arky Vaughan Pirates 1149 5055 52.9
Joe DiMaggio Yankees 979 4417 52.5
Hank Aaron Braves 1194 5201 52.4
Babe Ruth – – – 795 3130 51.9
Johnny Bench Reds 1236 5193 50.4
Lou Gehrig Yankees 921 4024 49.7
Stan Musial Cardinals 915 4026 49.7
Willie Mays Giants 914 3981 49.3

Trout is at the very top, and by the end of the season, he’s projected to add another 2.7 WAR to bolster his lead. Right now, the gap between Trout and 10th-place Eddie Collins is the same as the gap between Collins and 54th-ranked Joe Torre. To calculate WAR, we know the run-values of many of the plays on the field. We know how many runs a single, a walk, and a homer are worth, and we can make those determinations based on the ballpark they are hitting in and the run-scoring environment at the time in order to compare players across eras. We do the same for stolen bases and extra bases taken and look at a player’s value on defense. We can put in all that information and determine that Trout is the best player this game has ever seen through a 27-year-old season. He’s already 52nd among position players all time, and a solid finish to this season and an average Trout season in 2020 might put him in the top 30. Read the rest of this entry »


Shin-Soo Choo Is Turning Back the Clock

After the 2017 season, Shin-Soo Choo’s contract looked like one of the worst in baseball. He’d just wrapped up the fourth season in his seven-year, $130 million deal with Texas, and had failed to top 1.0 WAR for the third time. He was well into his mid-30s, had no business playing the outfield, and was constantly battling through injuries. His bat needed to thrive in order for him to be playable in Texas’ lineup, and too often, it was merely average. With three years and $62 million still owed to him, the Rangers needed Choo needed to take a dramatic step forward at the plate. What were the odds of that?

Higher than you might have thought. In 2018, Choo’s wRC+ rose from 104 to 118. This year, at 37 years old, it’s up to 124. That may be just a small improvement from last season, but it doesn’t convey how much he has changed as a hitter. He’s raised his ISO and slugging percentage 40 and 56 points respectively. Choo has sacrificed a bit of his famously high walk rate to get there, but he’s still drawing a free pass more than 10% of the time. What stands out to me, however, is how hard he’s hitting the ball.

Before last year, Choo had never finished a full season with a hard-hit percentage of at least 40%, according to our own data. Then, in 2018, he got that mark up to 42%. This year, it’s up to 46.7%. That kind of gain would be encouraging for a player of any age, but for a player as old as Choo, it’s a significant shift. His hard-hit rate ranks 18th in baseball this season, and that’s only if you go by our metrics. Statcast has his hard-hit percentage at 50.7%, which places him seventh among hitters with at least 100 batted balls. Here’s the full top 10, with ages attached:

Statcast Hard-Hit% leaders, 2019
Name Hard-hit% Age
Aaron Judge 59.8 27
Miguel Sano 55.3 26
Nelson Cruz 53.5 39
Joey Gallo 52.3 25
Matt Olson 51.2 25
Marcell Ozuna 51.1 28
Shin-Soo Choo 50.7 37
Josh Donaldson 50.7 33
Kyle Schwarber 50.4 28
Christian Walker 50.4 26

Read the rest of this entry »


Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 8/7/19

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to a Wednesday Meg chat.

2:00
Meg Rowley: This one isn’t likely to go overly long, as I have a pretty gnarly head cold and have to head to the ballpark later.

2:01
Meg Rowley: But for now, a chat! Let’s get started.

2:01
Rich K: Hi Meg.  Hope you feel better soon.  Are you chatting on Wednesdays now?  I thought you were on Tuesdays. . . .

2:02
Meg Rowley: I normally am — Dan had a conflict on Monday, which pushed him to Tuesday, which pushed me to today. I don’t know how, but eventually this ends with someone at FanGraphs being next in the constitutional line of succession. Should be back to normal next week.

2:02
Nahtan: If the season ended today, would you vote for Yelich or Belli as NL MVP (and why)?

Read the rest of this entry »


Can the Reds Figure Out Kevin Gausman?

To say that Kevin Gausman has been a frustrating pitcher to his fans and employers alike would be an undersell. Debuting in the majors in 2013 for the Baltimore Orioles, he’s passed the two-WAR mark in four seasons and only failed to hit the one-WAR threshold when he threw just 47.2 innings in his rookie campaign. But while Gausman has been a contributor, given his top-prospect status, his ability to hit the high-90s, and his possession of a knee-buckling splitter, his career still feels curiously underwhelming. His unusually robust first-half/second-half splits certainly don’t help the common perception of Gausman, with his second halves (ERA of 3.63) needing to deflate the ERAs from his first halves (4.96).

Now Gausman joins his third organization of the last year. And at the nadir of his value too; while the Braves didn’t give up any elite prospects to pry Gausman from the Orioles in 2018, they at least gave up actual prospects. The Cincinnati Reds only needed a waiver claim to bring Gausman to town, essentially committing to nothing more than paying the rest of his 2019 salary.

Gausman’s history of at least moderate respectability works in his favor, but that 6.19 ERA is hard to completely forget about. With a FIP of 4.21, there’s a massive discrepancy between his actual run prevention and the run prevention suggested from his peripheral stats. The tricky part then becomes figuring out which stat to believe more, so we need to do further digging. Read the rest of this entry »


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 8/7/19

12:21

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is eating her lunch and I’m still experimenting with grilled/smoked meats and various formulations of frose

12:22

Kiley McDaniel: I was at the East Coast Pro showcase this past week, so I’m updating the draft rankings this week, along with some pro adjustments while Eric is at Area Codes and the PG All-American game this week

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: There was some important content on the FG prospects social channels today

 

FanGraphs Prospects
@FG_Prospects

 

One of the top prospects we’ve captured on the high speed is Kiley’s puppy Scout
7 Aug 2019
12:23

Kiley McDaniel: All of our rankings and stats and content and whatnot can be conveniently found here: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects

12:23

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

12:24

Yay: Levi Kelly ranked top 10 for D Backs on other sites. Not on board for you guys. Isn’t he at least a 35+ at this point even if he’s just a reliever?

Read the rest of this entry »