Ranking the Prospects Traded at the 2024 Deadline
Ranked and briefly analyzed below are the prospects who have been traded during the loosely defined “2024 deadline season,” which for simplicity’s sake I consider all of July. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of have been analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here; you can also click the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below, which will take you to the relevant article. I’ve moved all of the 35+ FV and above players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates and read their full scouting reports. Our Farm System Rankings, which update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up following the draft and the deadline.
2024 Traded Prospects and Minor Leaguers
| FV | Rank | Player | Pos | Age | To | From | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 1 | Agustin Ramirez | C | 22.9 | MIA | NYY | Chisholm | Offense-first catcher with huge rotational explosion and bat speed. Probably plays C/1B/DH mix. |
| 50 | 2 | Thayron Liranzo | C | 21.1 | DET | LAD | Flaherty | Switch-hitter with rare power regardless of position, but especially at catcher. Hit tool improvement becomes imperative if he can’t stick back there. |
| 50 | 3 | Dylan Lesko | SP | 20.9 | TBR | SDP | J. Adam | Has been super wild coming off TJ. Riding mid-90s heat and an elite changeup give him impact reliever floor even if things stay that way. |
| 50 | 4 | Jake Bloss | SP | 23.1 | TOR | HOU | Kikuchi | High-floored fourth starter on a competitive club. Plus slider and command, other stuff is average. |
| 45+ | 5 | George Klassen | SP | 22.5 | LAA | PHI | Estévez | Once a hard-throwing sideshow with no control, Klassen has somewhat improved this while also adding a cutter to his upper-90s fastball and plus curve. |
| 45+ | 6 | Brody Hopkins | SP | 22.5 | TBR | SEA | Arozarena | Hard-throwing low-slot converted outfielder who has gotten better very quickly in first year of pro ball. |
| 45+ | 7 | Jared Serna | 2B | 22.2 | MIA | NYY | Chisholm | Super athletic little second baseman with surprising power for his size. Makes contact despite high-effort swing. Shot to be everyday second baseman; if not, he has an impact utility profile. |
| 45 | 8 | Trey Sweeney | SS | 24.3 | DET | LAD | Flaherty | Big-framed shortstop with starter-quality contact/power combo that plays down due to his downward swing path. |
| 45 | 9 | Samuel Aldegheri | SP | 22.9 | LAA | PHI | Estévez | Sneaky low-90s fastball with ride, plus slider, plus command. No. 4/5 starter look. |
| 45 | 10 | Nick Yorke | 2B | 22.3 | PIT | BOS | Priester | Below-average 2B/LF defender with strong hitting track record. Bizarre reverse splits, hits righties much better. Not quite a regular because of his defense. |
| 45 | 11 | Yujanyer Herrera | SP | 21.0 | COL | MIL | Mears | Big-framed almost-21-year-old righty with smooth delivery, plus command, plus slider and low-to-mid-90s fastball. No. 4/5 starter look. |
| 40+ | 12 | José Tena | 2B | 23.4 | WSN | CLE | L. Thomas | Free-swinging infielder with power. Flashy but flawed defender. Probably gets 2B/3B reps soon. |
| 40+ | 13 | Deyvison De Los Santos | DH | 21.1 | MIA | ARI | Puk | Stout slugger with plus-plus power, zero approach, and shaky defense. Volatile low-OBP type in the Maikel Franco mold. |
| 40+ | 14 | Robby Snelling | SP | 20.6 | MIA | SDP | T. Scott | Ultra-competitive lefty who goes right at hitters with relatively vanilla stuff. |
| 40+ | 15 | Jackson Baumeister | SP | 22.1 | TBR | BAL | Eflin | Amateur two-way prospect (catcher) who is still learning to pitch. Works in the low-to-mid-90s with life, has two good breaking balls. Sketchy delivery creates relief risk. |
| 40+ | 16 | Mason Barnett | SP | 23.7 | OAK | KCR | Erceg | Burly mid-90s righty with above-average slider and curveball. Throws strikes despite long arm action, in the backend starter/swingman area but should thrive in one of those roles. |
| 40+ | 17 | Ty Johnson | SP | 22.9 | TBR | CHC | Paredes | 6-foot-6 small school starter with burgeoning velocity and plus breaking ball. Has improved a lot during lone pro season. Rotation upside w/changeup growth. |
| 40+ | 18 | Alex Clemmey | SP | 19.0 | WSN | CLE | L. Thomas | Lanky teenage lefty with mid-90s fastball and rapidly improving slider. Far from bigs but has realistic late-inning reliever outcome with time to develop into more. |
| 40+ | 19 | Will Klein | SIRP | 24.7 | OAK | KCR | Erceg | Upper-90s reliever with a good curveball. Ready for big league innings right now. |
| 40+ | 20 | Seth Johnson | SP | 25.9 | PHI | BAL | G. Soto | Mid-90s starter still building back from TJ. Pitch mix and command are more typical of a good reliever than a starter. He’s on the 40-man right now. |
| 40+ | 21 | Adam Mazur | SP | 23.3 | MIA | SDP | T. Scott | Lanky rookie big league righty with mid-90s fastball that plays way down, especially in the zone. Best fit might be to pitch backwards in a long relief role. |
| 40+ | 22 | Mac Horvath | CF | 23.0 | TBR | BAL | Eflin | Tried center field just before he was traded and looked pretty good. Valuable righty utility type with above-average power. |
| 40+ | 23 | Cayden Wallace | 3B | 23.0 | WSN | KCR | H. Harvey | Multi-positional corner utilityman with roughly average contact and power. |
| 40+ | 24 | Jeral Perez | 2B | 19.7 | CHW | LAD | Edman/Fedde/Pham | Young, power-hitting 2B/3B who has gotten stronger very quickly. Stiff defender, versatility unlikely, needs to mash so he can be an everyday second baseman. |
| 40 | 25 | Jonatan Clase | CF | 22.2 | TOR | SEA | Y. García | Speedy outfielder fairly new to switch-hitting. Raw defensive feel. Real tools and late breakout possibility. Don’t get fatigued here. |
| 40 | 26 | Gregory Barrios | SS | 20.3 | TBR | MIL | Civale | Slick-fielding shortstop with plus feel for contact. Very slight of build, utility type unless he gets stronger. |
| 40 | 27 | Graham Pauley | 3B | 23.9 | MIA | SDP | T. Scott | 2023 breakout guy who regressed in 2024. Lacks a position. Sweet lefty swing should enable him to be a part-time contributor anyway. |
| 40 | 28 | Connor Norby | LF | 24.1 | MIA | BAL | T. Rogers | Relatively bearish here. Below-average second base defender whose strikeouts have exploded. More a 1 WAR LF/DH type than a potential regular. |
| 40 | 29 | Eddinson Paulino | 3B | 22.1 | TOR | BOS | Jansen | Shot to be low-end third base regular with plus glove there. More likely part-time lefty infielder. |
| 40 | 30 | Sabin Ceballos | 3B | 22.0 | SFG | ATL | Soler | Contact and defense-oriented third baseman who lacks the power typical of third. |
| 40 | 31 | Cutter Coffey | SS | 20.2 | TOR | BOS | Jansen | Flashy but inconsistent defense. Low-end regular shortstop potential if he can stay there, Daniel Robertson comp if he can’t. |
| 40 | 32 | Aidan Smith | CF | 20.0 | TBR | SEA | Arozarena | Projectable center fielder with suspect hit tool. |
| 40 | 33 | Joseph Montalvo | SP | 22.2 | DET | TEX | Chafin | Small-ish low-90s righty starter with a good breaking ball. No. 5 starter look with upside if you’re keen to project based on his gorgeous delivery. |
| 40 | 34 | Kade Morris | SP | 22.1 | OAK | NYM | Blackburn | Breaking ball-centric backend starter type. |
| 40 | 35 | Jun-Seok Shim | SP | 20.2 | MIA | PIT | B. De La Cruz | Bigger-bodied guy injured for all of 2024 so far (shoulder). Sits 95 with carry and has a promising curveball. |
| 40 | 36 | Alexander Albertus | 3B | 19.8 | CHW | LAD | Edman/Fedde/Pham | Athletic infielder with contact and plate skills but not much power. Put on IL with tibia fracture shortly before the trade. |
| 40 | 37 | William Bergolla | SS | 19.8 | CHW | PHI | T. Banks | Has a Luis Guillorme look. Super skilled barrel control and defensive hands, below-average athlete. |
| 40 | 38 | Andrew Pintar | CF | 23.4 | MIA | ARI | Puk | Power/speed center fielder who is still learning the position. Has missed lots of time with injury. |
| 40 | 39 | Rafael Ramirez Jr. | SS | 19.0 | WSN | CLE | L. Thomas | Viable shortstop with average power and below-average hit tool. |
| 40 | 40 | International Pool Space | $750k | 2024 | NYY | HOU | C. Ferguson | This helps the Yankees get a little closer to front of the pack in terms of remaining 2024 bonus pool space, which means a better late-2024 shot at Rōki Sasaki depending on the timing of his posting. |
| 40 | 41 | Jack Neely | SIRP | 24.2 | CHC | NYY | Leiter | Neely is a pretty typical mid-90s fastball/plus slider middle reliever. |
| 40 | 42 | Hunter Bigge | SIRP | 26.1 | TBR | CHC | Paredes | Has dealt with injuries, wildness, and fluctuating velocity. Currently healthy and peaking, sitting in the upper-90s with a nasty low-90s cutter/slider. |
| 40 | 43 | Moisés Chace | SP | 21.1 | PHI | BAL | G. Soto | Stuff-over-control starter prospect with good secondaries and an uphill fastball. |
| 40 | 44 | Bradley Blalock | MIRP | 23.6 | COL | MIL | Mears | Vertical fastball reliever look, splitter and breaking ball pepper the top of the zone. |
| 40 | 45 | Patrick Reilly | SP | 22.8 | BAL | PIT | B. Cook | Fastball-heavy righty with a good cutter/slider. Probably a reliever, masquerading as a starter right now. |
| 40 | 46 | Eric Silva | MIRP | 21.8 | DET | SFG | Canha | Slider-heavy relief prospect, advanced command for his age. |
| 40 | 47 | Luis Peralta | SIRP | 23.6 | COL | PIT | Beeks | Standard middle inning lefty prospect with upshot fastball and plus slider. |
| 40 | 48 | Tyler Stuart | SP | 24.8 | WSN | NYM | Winker | Sixth starter type. Has backend elements but fastball traits cause it to play down. |
| 35+ | 49 | Ovis Portes | SIRP | 19.7 | CIN | BOS | L. Sims | Very hard throwing young starter prospect with relief risk due to a lack of command. |
| 35+ | 50 | Oliver Gonzalez | SP | 17.8 | LAD | STL | Edman/Fedde/Pham | Super projectable DSL pitcher with present below-average stuff. |
| 35+ | 51 | Benjamin Cowles | SS | 24.5 | CHC | NYY | Leiter | Well built, versatile infielder with below-average hit and power tools. |
| 35+ | 52 | Walter Pennington | SIRP | 26.3 | TEX | KCR | Lorenzen | Up/down reliever with an above-average slider. |
| 35+ | 53 | Jarold Rosado | SIRP | 22.1 | CHW | KCR | DeJong | A hard-throwing young relief prospect with two future plus pitches. Rosado is sitting 94-97 and has a great two-planed curveball. |
| 35+ | 54 | Thomas Balboni Jr. | SIRP | 24.1 | NYY | SDP | Lockridge | Balboni is a low-slot reliever with a good slider who has had a two-tick velo spike this season. |
| 35+ | 55 | Liam Hicks | C | 25.2 | DET | TEX | C. Kelly | Hicks has great plate discipline and feel for airborne contact, but he lacks power and isn’t a good catcher. |
| 35+ | 56 | Will Wagner | 3B | 26.0 | TOR | HOU | Kikuchi | Wagner can hit but lacks a position. |
| 35+ | 57 | Josh Rivera | SS | 21.8 | TOR | CHC | Pearson | Rivera is a viable shortstop with a big time arm and a hit tool that’s lacking. |
| 35+ | 58 | Homer Bush Jr. | CF | 22.8 | TBR | SDP | J. Adam | Bush is an elite runner with a big long-term defensive ceiling in center. His bat is light. |
| 35+ | 59 | Yohendrick Pinango | LF | 22.2 | TOR | CHC | Pearson | Pinango is a spreadsheet darling with a more middling visual report. The stocky lefty-hitting left fielder has good power for his size, but his swing’s length is a concern. |
| 35+ | 60 | Matthew Lugo | LF | 23.2 | LAA | BOS | L. García | Lugo has moved from shortstop to left field and improved his approach. He’s now a pull-power left fielder who fits toward the bottom of a 40-man. |
| 35+ | 61 | Trey McGough | SIRP | 26.3 | CHW | BAL | E. Jiménez | McGough is a soft-tossing lefty reliever with a good slider. |
| 35+ | 62 | Paul Gervase | SIRP | 24.2 | TBR | NYM | T. Zuber | A 6-foot-10 righty with a low slot. 91-94 mph fastball is a nightmare in on the hands of righties. |
| 35+ | 63 | Wilfredo Lara | 3B | 20.3 | MIA | NYM | Brazoban | Versatile defender with power-over-hit offensive profile. Shot to be a utility guy. |
| 35+ | 64 | Yeferson Vargas | SIRP | 20.0 | LAA | BOS | L. García | Undersized righty up to 98 with a promising breaking ball. Probable reliever. |
| 35+ | 65 | J.D. Gonzalez | C | 18.8 | TBR | SDP | J. Adam | Sweet-swinging developmental catcher with raw all-around game. |
| 35+ | 66 | Tyler Owens | SIRP | 23.6 | DET | TEX | C. Kelly | Fastball-heavy up/down reliever likely to debut within a year. |
| 35+ | 67 | Ricky Vanasco | SIRP | 25.8 | DET | LAD | Cash | Oft-injured reliever with three plus pitches at peak. |
| 35 | 68 | Niko Kavadas | 1B | 25.8 | LAA | BOS | L. García | Husky 1B/DH with plus-plus power but 30-grade contact. |
| 35 | 69 | Andrés Chaparro | 1B | 25.8 | WSN | ARI | Floro | First baseman with fair contact/power blend, nice upper-level corner infield depth option. |
| 35 | 70 | Charles McAdoo | 3B/OF | 22.4 | TOR | PIT | Kiner-Falefa | Small-school power breakout guy with looming strikeout issues due to his bat path. |
| 35 | 71 | Garret Forrester | C/3B | 22.7 | MIA | PIT | B. De La Cruz | Oregon State stalwart who attempted catcher conversion during 2024 first half. Has played more third base lately. Well-rounded hitter, old for his level. |
| 35 | 72 | Jacob Bresnahan | SP | 19.1 | SFG | CLE | Cobb | Teenage lefty without huge projection. Great looking arm action, low-90s fastball but it rides, average slider. |
| 35 | 73 | Ronaldys Jimenez | SP | 18.7 | PIT | SDP | M. Pérez | DSL lefty up to 95, has a projectable frame and slider. |
| 35 | 74 | Nicolas Carreno | SP | 18.1 | NYM | PIT | J. Walker | Carreno is a walk-prone, lightning-armed little DSL lefty who is sitting 95 and has a potentially good slider. |
| 35 | 75 | Michael Flynn | SIRP | 28.0 | TBR | LAD | Rosario | Lower-slot sinker/slider/cutter reliever with low-leverage upside. |
| 35 | 76 | Brandon Lockridge | CF | 27.4 | SDP | NYY | Enyel/Balboni | A 27-year-old depth center fielder with a plus glove and speed. |
| 35 | 77 | Billy Cook | 2B/OF | 25.6 | PIT | BAL | P. Reilly | Older 2B/OF with above-average power and 2024 K% improvement. |
| 35 | 78 | Kelly Austin | SIRP | 23.6 | NYY | HOU | C. Ferguson | Low-90s fastball with natural cut and carry. Good breaking stuff. Like a softer-tossing Bryan Shaw. |
| 35 | 79 | Chase Lee | SIRP | 26.0 | DET | TEX | Chafin | Low-slot righty with a good slider. Righty specialist look. |
| 35 | 80 | Will Schomberg | SP | 23.5 | MIA | SEA | Chargois | An undrafted free agent out of Davidson with elite breaking ball spin. Sits 91-93, throws a lot of cutters and curveballs. |
| 35 | 81 | Matthew Etzel | OF | 22.3 | TBR | BAL | Eflin | Upper-level performer with smaller frame and modest tools. Good upper-level depth type. |
| 35 | 82 | Rhylan Thomas | OF | 24.3 | SEA | NYM | Stanek | Contact-only corner outfielder. Upper-level depth. |
| 35 | 83 | Jacob Sharp | C | 22.9 | TOR | SEA | Y. García | Athletic little catcher with plus contact rates. |
| 35 | 84 | Jared Dickey | OF | 22.4 | OAK | KCR | Erceg | Corner outfielder with solid bat-to-ball skills, less power than a typical LF/RF. |
| 35 | 85 | Ryan Zeferjahn | SIRP | 26.4 | LAA | BOS | L. García | Up/down reliever with upper-90s fastball that lacks movement. |
| 35 | 86 | RJ Schreck | OF | 24.1 | TOR | SEA | J. Turner | Old-for-level A-ball performer. Contact-driven corner outfielder without power. |
| 35 | 87 | Jay Harry | UTIL | 22.0 | TOR | MIN | T. Richards | Lefty-hitting multi-positional player with pull-oriented approach. Physical tools are pretty light. |
| 35 | 88 | Jay Beshears | MIF | 22.2 | MIA | SDP | T. Scott | Lacks arm for shortstop. Swings hard and is making above-average contact this year but, to the eye, it isn’t sustainable. |
| 35 | 89 | Gilberto Batista | SP | 19.6 | TOR | BOS | Jansen | Sinker/slider teenager who sits 91-93; his breaking ball ranges from 82-90 mph. |
| 35 | 90 | Abrahan Ramirez | 2B/3B | 19.8 | MIA | NYY | Chisholm | Compact contact-oriented 2B/3B currently on the complex. |
| 35 | 91 | Moises Bolivar | 3B | 17.1 | LAD | BOS | Paxton | A power-hitting flier from the DSL who needs to work on his throwing accuracy and plate discipline. |
| 35 | 92 | Andruw Salcedo | C | 21.8 | SEA | CIN | France | Husky switch-hitting catcher who hasn’t played very much across four pro seasons. |
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
well done Getz
Loperfido?
Does he still count as a prospect?
He is just short of the AB threshold but I think he may have passed the service time threshold for rookie eligibility by the Mike Trout rule–he has less than 45 days in the majors, but he was optioned twice after being called up for less than ten days each, which I think means he gets service time for those stints, which puts him over the service time threshold. Maybe.
Also I’m not sure if the way the rule works is that the service time counts if it’s less than twenty total days of optional assignment, which would mean that he theoretically could have rookie eligibility retroactively restored if he gets optioned again. Well I’m not sure about any of this.
(This is the Mike Trout rule because the same technicality was going to make Trout ineligible for Rookie of the Year, but MLB restored his eligibility because c’mon? really?)
This is amazing stuff, Eric. You had Loperfido behind Bloss as a 45 in June; had he not recently graduated, would he slot somewhere between 8-12 here?
9th
Only 4 top 100 prospects dealt at the deadline is pretty shocking. Then you look at where they rate (72, 73, 88, 92) and teams are really prospect hugging.
Always love this in depth post deadline piece comparing all the pieces moved!
Or they didn’t think the available talent didn’t justify higher bids?
There are so many teams that might make the playoffs and not many teams that are in a position to go all in on trying to win it all. So you see alot of trades where teams are trying to improve for this year and make a run, while also not mortgaging the future because they aren’t quite there yet.
Like, is there even a single team on pace to win 100 games this year? I dont think there is.
Cleveland, believe it or not.
And they went all in…
…or what passes for same in Dolan land.
And per BA’s midseason update, nobody in the Top 100 was dealt.
Hugging, indeed.
Thanks, Eric. I always look forward to this piece. Been refreshing all week.
Yankees definitely gave up a haul, but if Jazz can keep the vibes up, it’ll be worth it. Also Agustin would have been blocked by Wells anyway, who is also very good.
I was really hoping they’d keep him. But you have to give to get. He’s got really good traits as a hitter and I think he can catch, at least part time. And he’s the perfect platoon guy for Austin Wells. I really hope he mashes with the Marlins, he’s going to have such a great opportunity and should be up this season given the Marlins catching situation.
Apparently people don’t believe Agustin will stick at catcher anyway, so he’d be more DH (also blocked by Stanton) or 1B (Rice?). Just one of those things.
New Jesus Montero just dropped.
The internet is awfully quiet on the subject of whether Thomas Balboni, Jr. is related to Royals icon Steve Balboni. Any help?
he is not.
Steve, and Thomas’s grandparents, are both from Massachusetts, but there are a lot of Balbonis* in Massachusetts.
I was able to trace Steve’s ancestry–the obituary for Steve’s father, William T. Balboni, says that his parents were Anthony and Lula. “Leading Americans of Italian Descent in Massachusetts,” which can be found on the Internet Archive, mentions Anthony (proprietor of Balboni Sign Co., son of Carlo and Enrica, married to Lula and then Desolina). Excluding female relatives who wouldn’t have kids named Balboni, Anthony had two sons (Anthony, William) and I think two brothers (Louis, Thomas), and then I went down a rabbit hole with the wrong Thomas Balboni till I realized the middle initials didn’t match. So my verdict is, too many Balbonis to be sure, probably not related, but I did find this great quote from Steve about growing up a Red Sox fan and being drafted by the Yankees:
“I was a Red Sox fan but I loved the Yankees right away. My family wasn’t 100 percent about it. They were cheering for me but it was hard for them.”
*Balbonii? Balbonim?
I am very surprised to see that Steve Balboni was worth less than 3 WAR over his career.
Where do you have Wiemer at these days?
He was on a heater leading up to the deadline, that’s for sure…
74 PA of 364/527/564 (191 wRC+) with a 24.3 BB% and 14.9 K%.
Of course that was preceded by…
161 PA of 193/323/274 (65 wRC+) with a 15.5 BB% and 31.1 K%.
Could turn out to be a steal for Cincy if his recent results are more than just a random statistical blip.
Where would Miguel Vargas have slotted?
Impossible to say probably. Knowing what we know now after parts of two seasons in MLB it’s hard to rank him with prospects with little to no MLB time. But I’d give him a 45. 4th OF/low end regular that needs to hit. Gives you nothing else besides the bat and he’s not an infielder. Honestly I have no clue why the White Sox even wanted him.
Honestly, I have no clue why the White Sox even wanted him.
Young. Can hit. .300/.400/ .500 all the way up the ladder,
I’d slot him at 40, which is 0.0 to 0.7 WAR. Small chance he improves from here, but he’s probably just a Quad-A type. More likely to be replacement level than a low end regular in the 1 to 1.5 win range.
Cherington did well.
Eric not as enamored with Chuck McAdoo as Pirates message board posters.
I like him but I’m super high on IKF. Should be well worth it. The De La Cruz trade strikes me more as a gamble, but who knows. The types they gave up make sense and if the trade doesn’t work it can be seen as stomachable. Jimenez is a prospect they were unlikely to sign on their own and that they soccer bought.
He seems to have a really good hit tool but no position. I think he can be a ML contributor though.
Giving up Agustin Ramirez, Jared Serna, and Abrahan Ramirez for Jazz feels like a lot given that Jazz has never exceeded 3 WAR. That said I guess the selling point it the years of control?
Would love to see the projected WAR comparison because it feels like the biggest overpay, but also might have the greatest variance in projections (on both sides)
I feel like Agustin and Serna would be blocked. Or you just don’t know what you’re going to get with prospects. Yankees would know their flaws better than anybody anyway. They also probably like Jazz’s skillset, his versatility, etc.
Abrahan feels like a throw in.
Yankees have a guy named Urena who has a similar skillset to Agustin but is expected to actually catch.
It is a lot, but it stands out more because other guys like Arozarena and Paredes—who are probably better players—went for roughly the same amount. I would characterize this as the Marlins receiving full value at a deadline where a lot of sellers weren’t.
By “a lot of sellers” it sounds like you mean the Rays. Rightly so. Elfin went for less than Flaherty.
Also the best fit.
The yanks needed an if for now and later.
Trades aren’t just about player value in a vaccum; fit factors in.
And expectations for him have always been higher than his production.
He might be one of those (good) players who somehow become more productive in pinstripes. (Paul O’Neill comes to mind.) It’s early but so far he’s off to a good start.
The yanks paid full freight, no question, (so did Cleveland for Thomas) but if he solves their problem they’ll be more than happy.
Good teams do whatever it takes and worry about the fallout later.
They also continually produce good minor-league talent, so they have the chips to deal with.
I think trading with the Marlins opens up possibilities that don’t exist when trading with better run teams. A team with better talent development tools could unlock raw talent. Chisholm drips raw talent.
Where would Stowers rank on this list?
Really interested in this kid “International Bonus Space”. Not sure if he’ll stick at catcher, but the bat should play even if he ends up at 1B
Why can’t he stick at catcher?
Its wild to me how propsect rankings always over value C’s. Not saying thats the case here necessarily…but just in general over the years. Something i’ve been looking into. If If you look at the #1 ranked C prospect every single year for past decade 95 % have been DFA’d already.
It crazy to me how majority prospect gurus and FO don’t know how to evaluate that position. Think we can all agree we have way more miss rate on C’s than any other position. Neither of those top 2 catchers you would want behind the plate in world series game. Huge liability back there.
I’ve heard several teamsrecently are creating fake paper model value for propsects using multiple methods…..one is the Dodgers they throw C position beside a 1B/DH type as it creates additional value on a propsect simply because theyre a C….then they flip them knowing that guy will never catch.
Here they are. #1 from MLB Pipeline by year. At some point you think everyone and front offices would do a lookback analysis and try to see what they missed.
MLB Pipeline #1 C Prospect
2011 = Jesus Montero
2012 = Jesus Montero / Devin Mesoraco
2013 = Travis d’Arnaud
2014 = Travis d’Arnaud
2015 = Blake Swihart / Jorge Alfaro
2016 = Wilson Contreras / Gary Sanchez
2017 = Carson Kelly
2018 = Francisco Mejia
2019 = Joey Bart
2020 = Adley Rutshcman
Did you try it for other positions?
You have 9 years and three successes and that is pretty much average for *all* top position prospects, as of 2011.
https://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
3?
I’d consider Arnaud and Sanchez successes, by any reasonable measure.
[deleted for now]
This list isn’t really very instructive for what you were saying, that prospect rankings always overvalue catchers. If the MLB Pipeline guys decided that they were overvaluing catchers and decided to systematically push every catching prospect down ten spots, the same guys would still be the top-ranked prospects.
After a long look at the BA top 100s, Montero was a huge miss of course, Mesoraco was hurt, Swihart was overrated; but d’Arnaud has 20 WAR even if he did get DFA at some point, and after Swihart the top catchers don’t seem to be busting at a higher rate than other prospects around them (in 2016 Sanchez and Contreras were way underrated, and so was Rutschman in 2020 at #5 behind Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Gavin Lux, and a guy who is having off-field problems).
So I think they probably did enough of a lookback analysis to correct if not overcorrect.
Promoting players rapidly like the Padres or Braves do will also throw off models. You would hope that teams would know this about their models and either adjust them or interpret it accordingly.
With catching, I don’t think we are wrong to value catching highly, in the same way it isn’t wrong to value pitching highly. There’s so much attrition and unexpected twists with players that the scarcity makes the remaining ones even more valuable.
But it does make them way riskier! And your post on what happened to the top catching prospects is only the tip of the iceberg. Jorge Alfaro, Francisco Mejia, Chance Sisco, MJ Melendez, Ivan Herrera, Keibert Ruiz, Ronaldo Hernandez, and Zack Collins never developed. Carson Kelly, Tyler Stephenson, and Danny Jansen were wrecked by injuries. Miguel Amaya falls into one of those two categories. Joey Bart is somehow good now, but only after getting himself DFA’d. Henry Davis is scuffling, Bo Naylor has been inconsistent, and Campusano and Langeliers (somehow) can’t field the position. Daulton Varsho is a center fielder (and a good one too).
There are plenty of good ones from that era of prospects too. Adley, William Contreras, Ryan Jeffers, Gabriel Moreno, Cal Raleigh, Francisco Alvarez, Will Smith (although maybe he was earlier), Patrick Bailey, and Sean Murphy have all turned out well. That’s maybe half of them. Catchers! Can’t count on them but you can’t live without them!
Prospects will break your heart, regardless of position.
The study I listed above found two thirds of position player prospects failed.
Pitchers? 80%.
MLB Baseball is HARD.
That’s why we respect survivors and celebrate excellence.
Yeah but those are just the ones who are FV50s or above. If you included the catchers below that level you would have almost all of them fail.
The trigger argument was about the top catchers. 😇
You could say the same about SS where the vast majority fail to stick.
Some of it is that players are initially slotted into the hardest position they *might* fit. And catcher is a tough position to fill because the defensive training takes so much time the offense gets short changed. And if the bat is good enough it is often best to move them to where they can best exp!oit it. What remains is less than optimal to start with.
Its just extremely physical and demanding. Look at Adley R’s splits. When he catches hes a way under average hitter.
C = 71 Games, WRC+ 84
DH =33 Games, WRC+ 174
Orioles are 25th in War coming from the C position with .7. Not what people think they are.
NYY are 1st in Cathcing with 4.4 War and Detroit Tigers are 2nd best with 3.3.
To be fair, no one ever thought MJ Melendez was really going to be a catcher anyway.
Which is sort of another weird thing about evaluating catchers.
Um, MJ Melendez and Keibert Ruiz are still pretty young
Young and bad! I don’t think either one is worth a roster spot, even on a rebuilding team. Both of them rocking a .250 OBP…
Ivan Herrera’s career is just beginning. He just turned 24, played well for the Cards for a month and a half while Contreras was on the shelf, and is hittin’ it at AAA. He is on track, not off
Herrera is far from done at 24. He’ll be a full-time bat-first C with a viable glove for someone.
I’m baffled by the Stephenson take. He turns 28 in a couple of weeks and is doing well in all phases (catching full-time with high-quality contact and his best power output in years).
If either of those catchers behind the plate in a World Series game I’d be thrilled. I’d be in the World Series.
I’m confused why catching prospects aren’t graded heavily on framing when that seems to be all that matters in MLB.
I miss the old August waiver deadline, when you’d see big name veterans and bad contracts randomly moving between teams, with the media breathlessly hyping the acquisitions of Randy Myers and Jose Canseco because there’s nothing else to write about in August.
Easy to forget, but, Verlander going to the Astros in 2017 was a waiver deal. His contract was shaky enough where other teams didn’t want to take it on..& Detroit paid down a chunk of that contract.
Grienke too. And the eternal Nick Punto trade.
Verlander going to the Astros and then dominating for the next few years might have been the deal that kicked the old system over the edge. And the Canseco move to the Yankees in 2000 felt like it was a significant step on the road to revenue sharing. Even though he was pretty much washed by the time he got there and he wasn’t making a ton of money, the move got a lot of press at the time as an example of how big-market teams could use their financial power to soak up guys just because.
I understand being down in norby a little. He has a feel for hard contact in the Air and might outslug his EVs to a degree but his raw power isn’t that great and plate discipline has been kinda up and down.
Last year contact was ok and chase rate high, this year it is vice versa.
What Version is the real one?
Defense isn’t great either. His production always was good though but he also got a lot of experience at beating milb pitching
Seen a lot of hate from Tigers fans on the return for Flaherty but 2 of the top 8 prospects traded for a 2 month rental from a team that is basically out of the race seems like a nice haul, especially considering the news that concerns over Flaherty’s back caused at least one other offer to be reduced. Thoughts?
I can’t see how they’re dissatisfied after seeing what the Rays got for Eflin.
Other outlets aren’t quite as high on Liranzo as Eric is. But I buy Eric’s reasoning here.
I’m surprised you didn’t include the draft pick the Nationals received in the Hunter Harvey trade (as you did include the international pool money the Yankees received). Is it because it is hard to simultaneously put a value on the pick number and the slot value associated with it?
Yankee fans
Where is diamondbacks prospect “Cash Considerations” listed? I feel like he should have been a 40fv.
I’ve been a big fan of Cash Considerations for a long time. Frustrating that he keeps getting moved and no one will give him a chance.