2023 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Mets.

Batters

Closing a deal with Carlos Correa would obviously improve the team’s outlook, but the situation at third base — Correa’s likely position — is hardly dire. Eduardo Escobar is a league-average if quite unexciting player, and if his thumb is better, Brett Baty ought to provide additional depth as the season goes on. Even if I’m not quite as optimistic about Brandon Nimmo’s attendance record as the depth charts are, he has a long history of providing a lot of value even while missing a lot of games. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are elite players at their respective positions, and Jeff McNeil isn’t that far off that status. Mark Canha and Starling Marte make up a solid supporting cast.

I understand where the team is going with the catching. Right now, the Mets are probably more interested in Omar Narváez and Tomás Nido being a serviceable duo than they are in the higher upside but riskier play of Francisco Álvarez behind the plate, especially given that he’s coming off ankle surgery. He’ll likely be a pretty good DH, especially when he’s got a good platoon-mate, but I can’t help but think that the Mets face a similar dilemma with Álvarez as the Blue Jays did with Gabriel Moreno, in that they have an exciting young catcher who they can’t really leverage as one. It does make me wonder if, as unpopular as this may be, the team’s better long-term move is to trade him for someone who can help the Mets top the Braves, leaving Álvarez on a team that can more easily use him behind the plate until he proves he’s not suitable.

The top end of this group is good enough that the Mets should repeat as one of the top offenses in the National League.

Pitchers

Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander make up one of the oldest one-two punches in history, but the goal is to crush the league right now and worry about 2028 later on. They’re both a bit off their peaks, which isn’t unexpected given their ages, but there isn’t anything really scary in their peripherals to suggest that a plummet off a cliff looms. ZiPS is optimistic about Kodai Senga, seeing him as a solid no. 3 in his 2023 debut, and José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco are quite good for back-of-the-rotation starters. If healthy, the Mets have one of the top starting fives in baseball. And unlike much of the Wilpon era, the team has enough depth to survive some injuries, with Tylor Megill, David Peterson, and Joey Lucchesi (who returned from Tommy John surgery late in 2022) providing reasonable reinforcements. Should disaster strike, I expect the Mets to be quite aggressive in the trade market; Steve Cohen isn’t spending a bazillion dollars with the goal of going 88-74.

The Mets bullpen stands at the back of the first tier of bullpens in ZiPS, though a lot of that projection is highly concentrated in the top two pitchers, Edwin Díaz and Adam Ottavino. Drew Smith, David Robertson, Brooks Raley, and Bryce Montes de Oca all look to be at least adequate, and it makes for a good group considering the Mets had the challenge of watching most of last year’s ‘pen hit free agency this winter. I do think this is a place where the Mets may add another depth piece or two.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.