2023 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

When you look at the Padres’ depth charts, there’s a kind of clarity when trying to decide what the team needs to do this winter. The strengths of the offense are obvious: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. enter any season as top-notch MVP contenders. And unlike a certain seraphim-themed organization I won’t name with a few mega-stars at the top, there isn’t a huge drop-off to the next tier, whether it’s Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, or Trent Grisham after you’ve threatened him with torture if he tries to bunt for a hit at an awkward moment.

The team’s needs here are also quite obvious; I can’t imagine the Padres actually enter the season with Taylor Kohlwey and José Azocar splitting playing time in left field. The problem is, I also couldn’t imagine Nomar Mazara actually getting 41 starts in 2022, but that’s just what he did.

San Diego would also benefit from some figuring out what to do about Tatis’ position long-term. Right now, we have him splitting time in several places, but I think that the Padres are best served by figuring out whether Cronenworth or Kim are the answer at second, determine where they can put Tatis, and then find a full-time upgrade over Eguy Rosario or Brandon Dixon, whom I see more as complementary talent.

Another thing that is obvious here is that the Padres do need to spend some time this winter fattening up their organizational depth. The high minors are fairly empty at the moment — a combination of graduating talent, traded talent, and a bunch of minor league veterans now in free agency or in other organizations. Most of the players here who look like “break in case of fire” emergency options like C.J. Hinojosa or Domingo Leyba are no longer in the organization. This isn’t necessarily an expensive thing to do, either, and adding a left fielder and a couple of pitchers wouldn’t hinder this.

Pitchers

Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell are an excellent triad, but the Padres, as of right now, do not have the organizational rotation depth behind them that they’ve had the last couple of years. I like the re-signing of Nick Martinez, but I doubt many would dispute my opinion that he’s hardly a sure thing. The Padres are going to have to fight it out in the division with the team that had the best record in baseball, so I don’t see this as a battle-ready starting five. The fact that Julio Teheran, signed to a minor league contract about a week ago, ranks this highly in our depth chart is what we would call an inauspicious sign.

I think the hole in left field needs to be fixed adequately, but even if the Padres don’t, they’ve got to score runs; adding another starting pitcher ought to be a team priority, too. You’d love to see them go after Carlos Rodón, but even if San Diego is getting to its preferred payroll limit and he’s out of its price range, José Quintana or a reunion with Corey Kluber would be productive on a team that will likely have pretty good infield defense.

ZiPS isn’t as high on the bullpen as Steamer is. Josh Hader and Robert Suarez, along with Luis García, project to have most of the value there, but there’s a significant step down after the front-end of the bullpen. Given expensive needs in the rotation and left field, I can’t imagine San Diego is extremely aggressive here, so I expect more Rays-style bargain-searching rather than the splashier type of moves made in recent years. Relievers such as (but not necessarily exactly) Trevor May or Tommy Kahnle are more likely pickups than any of the best few options available.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.