2023 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

Even with Carlos Correa unsigned, Minnesota’s offense looks solid, though there’s a larger-than-normal dropoff if injuries happen to hit hard. And unfortunately, there are lots of places for injuries to hit the Twins hard; it seems unlikely that Byron Buxton is ever going to play 140 games again, and Royce Lewis‘ exact return from a torn ACL is speculative. Left field appears to be a problem at present time, and though ZiPS was at one time fairly high on Alex Kirilloff, injuries and some mediocre cups-of-coffee during his healthy interregnums have caused his projection to deteriorate considerably in the last couple of years. It’s a moot point now that the Mets have brought back Brandon Nimmo, but given the outfield options, I’m not necessarily sure that Correa is that much more desirable than Nimmo would have been, something I probably wouldn’t say for almost every other team.

I’m sad to see a rather bland Luis Arraez projection; he’s one of my favorite players to watch hit, since he plays more like someone from 1922. But in the end, while he’s a fun throwback to a different time in style, he plays in 2022, and his lack of power puts a fairly hard ceiling on his value as a first baseman. If he had been a better middle infielder, he might be one of baseball’s best young bets to join the 3,000 hit club, though he’d probably be the worst player to collect 3,000 hits overall! If he’s truly limited to first base, Arraez probably fades out of the league fairly quickly; a .280/.340/.370 first baseman isn’t really a starter unless he plays defense like a futuristic cyborg Keith Hernandez.

Buxton’s comp is a fun one, if not an overwhelmingly heartening one. Jeff Heath, like Buxton, was another extremely talented player who suffered a lot of injuries, such as bad knees from high school football, a broken ankle, and a hand injury. He had prospects as a football player, but it was his injuries as a teenager that got him firmly on the baseball route. The similarities end there; Heath’s favorite hobby was getting into fistfights with just about anyone (he hurt his hand punching a fan). I still hope we get a healthy Buxton at some point.

There’s a pretty big difference in how Steamer and ZiPS project Lewis, but if I’m being perfectly honest, I’m not sure which one I’m closer to on; we’ve just seen so little of him healthy in recent years. That, and his performance has been all over the map. There’s almost no level of results for him that would completely surprise me.

Pitchers

I’m sure everyone has things in their life that are fine/OK but for which they have a complete lack of enthusiasm. The Twins’ pitching projections are far from actually being poor, but there’s just such a blandness about it that it’s hard to conjure up much gusto. Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and Tyler Mahle are all serviceable more than scintillating, and the team has a bevy of perfectly reasonable fourth and fifth starter options available. This group would look a lot better if it had a bonafide ace at the helm. Perhaps if the Twins lose out in the Correa contract race, they could check in on Carlos Rodón? The good news here is that in what is a relatively weak division, this rotation wouldn’t prevent them from making the playoffs.

The bullpen could use some work this winter; there’s a very steep drop from Jorge López and Jhoan Duran at the top. As with the rotation, it’s not so weak a group that it’s actively hurting Minnesota’s shot at winning the division, though it’s hard to muster up much passion about this pen. ZiPS remains a big proponent of Cody Stashak, but he’s had a major shoulder injury and is a free agent after being outrighted by the Twins. If they had more confidence in his recovery from his torn labrum, he’d likely still be on the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.