Over the past week and a half, we’ve published our annual season preview, ranking the league’s players by position and team based on a blend of our projections (a 50/50 split between ZiPS and Steamer) and our manually maintained playing time estimates courtesy of Jason Martinez. If you happen to have missed any of those installments, you can use the navigation widget above to catch up.

Today, I’m going to summarize the results. We’ll look at some tables and pick out a few interesting tidbits in a moment, but first, it’s important to remember that this exercise captures a snapshot of how we project teams to perform right now. Teams aren’t static. Since we began publishing our rankings, prospects Anthony Volpe, Jordan Walker, and Brice Turang all made their respective clubs’ Opening Day rosters, and Grayson Rodriguez and Brett Baty learned they will have to wait a little while longer. The Brewers designated Keston Hiura for assignment (he has since cleared waivers and been outrighted to the Brewers’ Triple-A team) and signed non-roster invitee Luke Voit to a one-year big league deal. Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL and will likely miss the season; Triston McKenzie injured his shoulder and could miss up to eight weeks.

This being baseball, players will tweak elbows and hamstrings, lose playing time to underperformance, and get traded. That’s why we maintain a Team WAR Totals page, which lists projected positional WAR by team and updates regularly throughout the season as we learn more about who is likely to take the field every day and what shape they’ll be in when they do. It’s important to note that the WAR numbers you see on that page may differ from those you’ve seen on the positional power rankings, mostly because those figures are aware of the injuries and transactions that have altered our playing time estimates since the rankings went live; the Z-Scores I’ll include later also use the WAR figures that power the Team WAR Totals page. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, we looked at the teams in the bottom half of the league’s rotations. Now to close out the positional power rankings, we look at the game’s best.

Welcome to the last installment of our positional power rankings (well, other than tomorrow’s summary post). We’ve saved the best for last, whether you’re looking for total projected WAR or stars named. The best pitchers in baseball are increasingly pitching together, leading to two- and even three-star team-ups that dot the top of our rankings. It’s still an overall squad ranking, though, which means the teams that emerge on top combine stars with depth that can chip in either to the back of the rotation or higher up if injuries demand it.

Oh, yeah: injuries play a big part in this year’s list. Whether it’s the Yankees and their strange mix of depth and uncertainty, the Rangers signing a trio of talented but oft-injured starters, or the Brewers hoping to get enough innings from the top end of their rotation to buy time to figure out the bottom, how the depth chart shakes out and how many innings the top starters pitch will determine who ends up getting the most out of their starters this year. It’s not even just injuries to stars; health matters for depth options too, as teams invariably find out when they’re calling James Shields in August to see if he’s available. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we ranked baseball’s bullpens. Today, we turn our attention to the starters, beginning with the rotations that project in the bottom half of the league.

The starting pitching pool is tightening once again. This year’s bottom half features four teams with a 40% or better chance at making the playoffs, including a pair of projected division winners. That isn’t because those teams are overrated and have bad staffs, either, but rather that there is a tight middle class of rotations in the league right now. The teams ranked ninth through 20th are separated by just 3 WAR, with the American League having eight of those clubs. The National League has an intriguing group of teams at 21st-24th that are all a breakout or two away from joining that middle class. Even the very bottom got a boost this year, as last year’s 30th-ranked club (Arizona) checked in with just 5.8 projected WAR while this year’s 30th-ranked Nationals are more than a win clear of that mark at 7.1 WAR. Both leagues have their bottom feeders, with the National League getting the 29th and 30th ranked squads and the American League checking in with the next four. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Kyle Kishimoto kicked off our reliever rankings. Now we’ll take a look at the bullpens projected to be baseball’s best.

There are some positions for which a cleaner, wider gap exists between the top teams and the bottom, where we can more definitively say that some teams are better than others. For instance, the combination of talent and depth that the Blue Jays have at the catching position separates them from the rest of baseball. Relief pitching is not one of these positions. Sure, we have the bullpens ranked, and you can see their statistical projections above and below, but be sure to notice how thin the margins tend to be here, and know that relief inning sample sizes are small enough that this is where WAR is the least good at properly calibrating impact and value. Things like managerial usage, depth, and roster flexibility tend to play a huge role in the way bullpens perform throughout a season, and those are factors we can’t totally control for here. Read the rest of this entry »

After wrapping up our position player rankings with the league’s designated hitters, we turn our attention to the pitchers, starting with the bullpens in the bottom half of the reliever rankings.

Relievers are really, really tough to project. From the tiny sample sizes of previous seasons’ work to uncertainty over a pitcher’s role and the wide variety of offseason mechanical and pitch mix adjustments they make in search of a big breakout, it’s uniquely difficult to accurately forecast the future effectiveness of individual relievers. Still, some relievers are clearly a cut above the rest, and a commonality among the teams in the bottom half of there rankings is that they don’t have many of them. Less than two wins separate teams no. 16 and 30, and in order to exceed their projections, they’ll be looking for their up/down or replacement-level arms to hit their high-percentile upside and factor as high-leverage options on their respective squads. Read the rest of this entry »

We conclude our rankings of the game’s position players with a deep dive on designated hitters.

Does anyone miss seeing pitchers hit? My guess is that the vast majority of you don’t, and for good reason. Pitchers have become increasingly dominant, which only increases the value of quality hitters, many of whom are utilized at the DH position. Some, like 42-year-old Nelson Cruz, fit the 1973 Orlando Cepeda mold, while others, like Shohei Ohtani… well, there are no others like Shohei Ohtani. If there has ever been a baseball unicorn, the Angels’ two-way superstar is just that.

Not all of players who see time at DH are defensive liabilities. Some clubs are blessed with positional depth and are looking for a way to fit a player into the lineup — Giancarlo Stanton and AJ Pollock are examples — while for others, it’s a matter of safeguarding health. Byron Buxton and Tyler Stephenson stand out in this regard. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Dan Szymborski and Michael Baumann previewed left and center field. Now we round out the outfield positions with a look at right field.

Blame Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr., and even Aaron Judge. Right field may be home to some of the game’s best hitters and brightest stars, but last year the position fell into a collective offensive funk, in part because some of the aforementioned players either underperformed or spent more time at other positions — or both.

Perhaps that was just the flip side of a 2021 season in which right fielders collectively produced a 109 wRC+, higher than any other position besides first base and the highest of any batch of right fielders since ’17. In 2022, right fielders combined for just a 102 wRC+, the lowest mark within our positional splits, which go back to 2002. They were outhit not only by first basemen (111 wRC+) but by left fielders (106) and third basemen (105) as well; left fielders had last outproduced them in 2006, third basemen in ’16, and not once had both done so in the same season. Seventeen of the 30 teams failed to reach a 100 wRC+ at the position, while nine were below 90. Only 18 players accumulated at least 200 plate appearances at the position while maintaining a 100 wRC+, down from 21 in 2021 and 24 in ’19. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Dan Szymborski examined the state of left field. Now we turn our attention to those who roam center.

So much of evaluating and utilizing center fielders comes down to what you want. It’s easy to forget sometimes that this is an up-the-middle, premium defensive position, like shortstop and catcher. Even if the defensive demands aren’t quite as extreme, there’s a limited number of ballplayers who can hold their own in center, and a huge premium on those who can play it well. And if you’re looking for players who can field the position competently and hit? Well, that’s an even smaller pool still.

Such scarcity makes the two clear best center fielders in baseball — Mike Trout and Julio Rodríguez — supremely valuable. As interesting as those two superstars are to discuss, most of the other 28 teams are engaged in an even more fascinating puzzle: How to maximize value at this position in the aggregate. For some, that involves building an up-and-coming potential star, like Michael Harris II or Luis Robert Jr., into the best version of himself that he can be. Other teams, like the Brewers and Tigers, are auditioning even less developed players in the hope that they’ll turn into something special. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we wrapped up our analysis of the league’s infielders with third base and shortstop. Today, we shift our attention to the outfield, starting in left.

The sabermetric era has resulted in hard times for left field as a position. Teams are more willing than ever to give their best young talent every opportunity to stick at tougher defensive positions, which narrows the pipeline to corner outfield jobs. One-dimensional hitters have gone out of style and big home run totals alone don’t result in hefty contracts on the easy side of the defensive spectrum. Throughout the 1950s and ’60s, with barely half the number of teams, there were regularly six or seven active left fielders who were future Hall of Famers. Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Billy Williams, Frank Robinson, and Carl Yastrzemski all qualified for the batting title as left fielders in 1963. In contrast, there are basically two superstar left fielders today: Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez, and the latter doesn’t even exclusively play the position. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier today, Davy Andrews gave an accounting of the league’s third basemen. Now we turn our attention to the shortstops.

So, so deep. That’s true of the Mariana Trench, which extends some 36,000 feet below sea level, and also of the shortstop position in the major leagues. If you think of an average player as one who accrues roughly 2 WAR per 600 plate appearances, 29 teams are above average at shortstop. That’s because everyone puts their best athletes there for as long as they can, which results in an embarrassment of positional riches. You have to delve down to 25th on this list to get to a team whose aggregate projection is less than 3.0 WAR. No other position’s list of three-WARriors extends past 20th. Read the rest of this entry »