Archive for 2026 Trade Deadline

As August 3 nears, we are taking a fresh look at the farm systems of some of the clubs we expect to be buyers at the trade deadline. These teams are both contending for a playoff berth and in position to make a buyer’s-style trade for a star big leaguer, the kind that will likely require parting with a top farmhand or two. Today, I’m covering the Philadelphia Phillies.

In tandem with an evaluation of the team’s needs and deadline posture, I’ve updated Philly’s prospect list to account for graduations, incorporate the team’s new draftees, and reflect developments on the farm. The Phillies have a top-heavy system with a few key, arrow-up pitching prospects. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend, the Red Sox decided to go for it. They traded exciting young pitcher Connelly Early to Washington in exchange for less-exciting, less-young, but playing-very-well-right-now infielder Curtis Mead. The move elicited strong reactions. Early is a genuinely promising lefty starter who will be under team control until 2032. Mead is only one year older with one less year of team control. He’s had a wonderful breakout season at the plate, and his offensive profile fits Fenway Park beautifully. But he’s a poor defender whose track record of success at the plate is extremely short. Even Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow went out of his way to spell out exactly why the team pulled the trigger, telling reporters, “Our goal wasn’t to win the trade. It was to make the team better.”

I had my own strong reaction to the deal, but that was mainly because I really wanted to be the one to write it up so I could title the article, “Red Sox Go For It Now by Giving Up Early.” But the reactions to the deal are now more or less irrelevant. Mead did make the team better, but for a very, very short time. He struck out in his first plate appearance with the Red Sox, then got hit by a pitch and broke his wrist in his second. According to Baseball Prospectus’ Recovery Dashboard, the average recovery time for a fractured wrist is 52 days and the median is 47. Mead may or may not return before the regular season ends, but he’s certainly not going to be powering the Red Sox down the stretch, and they’re already out looking for more infield help.

You have to feel for Mead. He was in the midst of a true breakout season. After putting up a combined 0.1 WAR in his first three major league seasons, he was already at 1.6 this year. He was traded to a contender that also happened to be the hottest team in baseball. What an exciting time for the 25-year-old, and then one pitch took it all away.

You can also imagine how Boston’s front office must feel after putting in all the work to make this trade happen. Breslow stuck his neck out for this high-risk, win-now move, and just like that, it’s gone. I don’t think there’s much I could do to cheer up Mead right now, but I can take a crack at cheering up Breslow. I’d like to remind him that although this may seem like the worst case scenario for his bold challenge trade, things could have gone much, much worse. In order to see that, you just have to look at things like a chief baseball officer, removing the human element and focusing solely on pure, unadulterated on-field production. Let’s lift our spirits by acting like soulless robots. Read the rest of this entry »

The Blue Jays came agonizingly close to winning the World Series last fall, but this season has been a much different story. They haven’t had a winning record since April 4, and haven’t played above .500 in any full month besides May (15-14). While they clawed their way back to .500 on May 29 (29-29) and June 22 (39-39), an 11-20 skid since then has buried them in the AL East cellar, 14 games behind the Rays. Ten American League teams either occupy a playoff spot or are within 2.5 games of one at this writing, but the Blue Jays aren’t one of them; they’re 5.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot, with playoff odds around 7%. As the August 3 trade deadline approaches, several of their players could be on the move to contenders and are worth a closer look.

So little has gone right for Toronto this year. Last season, the team had four regulars with a wRC+ of 116 or higher in George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alejandro Kirk, each of whom topped 3.0 WAR, as did defensive whiz Ernie Clement. Four part-timers (Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho, and Tyler Heineman) also met that offensive threshold. But Bichette, Heineman, and Loperfido are now elsewhere, and the rest have been far less productive. No Blue Jay with more than 25 plate appearances has a wRC+ higher than newcomer Kazuma Okamoto’s 113, while Guerrero, Kirk, Schneider, and Varsho are all below 100. Vladito even landed on my Replacement-Level Killers list, which isn’t great news for a player whose contract runs through 2039. Okamoto is the only Blue Jays position player on pace for 3.0 WAR. Ouch.

In 2025, the Blue Jays’ offense ranked second in the AL in scoring and WAR, and third in wRC+, but this year, the team has fallen to second-to-last in scoring and WAR, and last in wRC+:

By comparison, Toronto’s run prevention has been nothing to write home about, whether we’re considering last year (4.45 runs per game, 10th in the league) or this year (4.50 runs per game, ninth). It’s easy to forget that the club’s near-miss happened despite a makeshift October rotation that included just one of the three pitchers who took at least 18 starts for the team (Kevin Gausman) and featured a rookie with three regular-season starts (Trey Yesavage), a deadline acquisition who had just returned from Tommy John surgery (Shane Bieber), and a 40-year-old veteran who missed the first three months of the season with right thumb inflammation (Max Scherzer). Read the rest of this entry »

I came into this week with a ton of trade deadline hype built up in my brain just waiting to spill onto the page the first time I had a deal to analyze. I had some clever turns of phrase, some bon mots (or “annoying puns,” if you’re not into it), and next week, you’ll surely get to hear those. But they’re staying in the proverbial writer’s quiver today, because the trade I’m analyzing is more of a mystery than a blockbuster. The trade in question: the Rangers acquired Logan O’Hoppe and Chase Silseth from the Angels in exchange for Low-A infielder Angel Arredondo, as Jeff Passan first reported.

The Rangers have lurched into the AL West lead in recent weeks, turning aside the equally-scuffling A’s and Mariners while trying to hold off the surging (surging to a .500 record, to be fair) Astros. They have one of the worst catching situations in the majors – the 0.2 WAR their catchers have accrued is 27th in baseball. So surely, that’s the play here, I innocently thought as I saw this trade cross the tape. But that was a red herring, the first twist in a deal full of them.

O’Hoppe was a catching prospect of some note, a late-round Philadelphia draft pick in 2018 who ascended to Top 100 prospect status and then got swapped straight up for Brandon Marsh in 2022. He hit well enough to cover up some defensive shortcomings in his first few seasons of injury-interrupted work, but then he posted a 72 wRC+ in 2025, dragging his total contributions below replacement level. He’s hitting .209/.271/.295 this year, good for a 59 wRC+, and is below replacement level again. In fact, the Angels have accrued negative WAR at catcher, so they’re hardly where the Rangers should be looking for improvement. And indeed, as I tried to puzzle through how much of an upgrade O’Hoppe would even be, the Rangers rendered my thinking moot: They optioned O’Hoppe to Triple-A. Read the rest of this entry »

As August 3 draws closer, we’re continuing to update the farm systems of some of the clubs we expect to be buyers at the trade deadline. These teams are both contending for a playoff berth and in clear need of a significant upgrade, the kind that will likely require parting with a top farmhand or two. Today, we’re evaluating the Texas Rangers. The new list accounts for the graduations of Gavin Collyer and Robby Ahlstrom, includes the team’s new draftees, and reflects some of the biggest developments down in the minors this season.

It hasn’t been a great year for most of the upper-level pitchers on our offseason Rangers list, but there are a couple arrow-up hitters in the mid-minors and some very intriguing talent blossoming on the complexes. It’s a farm in flux, packed with eye-of-the-beholder players, which makes this a particularly interesting org for prospect heads to monitor at the deadline.

The Situation

Aging, banged up, and barely playing .500 ball, the Rangers nonetheless find themselves atop the AL West. Though they’re two games up on the Astros and 2.5 up on the Mariners, our Playoff odds only very recently tilted their divisional chances above pre-season favorite Seattle’s. Right now, we estimate that they’re about a 50/50 shot to win the division, and their chances of reaching the playoffs at all are up around 67%. That isn’t normally the résumé of a big deadline buyer, particularly since this isn’t a case of a talented squad weathering an unexpected rough patch: Coming into the year, we pegged the Rangers as a .500 team.

And yet, there’s a strong case to make that Texas should act aggressively because this era of Rangers baseball is drawing to a close. Corey Seager is 32, recovering from an abdominal injury, and showing signs of decline amidst the worst year of his career. Brandon Nimmo is 33. Jacob deGrom is 38 and Nathan Eovaldi is 36. Josh Jung feels young and vaguely prospect-ey still, but he’s actually 28 and his injury history is nearly as checkered as Seager’s. MacKenzie Gore is only around for one more year. This core will never be better than it is right now.

Needs: Starting Pitcher, Bullpen Depth, Catcher

There are two kinds of players you can trade for at the deadline: guys who can help you get to October, and guys who can help you win in October. While the latter are the better, more desirable players in practically every circumstance, they’re also rarer and more difficult to obtain. Conveniently for Texas, players in the former category would do quite a bit of good here.

This is perhaps clearest when evaluating the Rangers rotation. Even the 2026 versions of deGrom, Eovaldi, and Gore are compelling playoff starters. Texas would obviously benefit from a luxury addition like Reid Detmers, but what the club really needs is a better fifth starter than Cal Quantrill. There aren’t many internal candidates on the horizon: Jack Leiter is recovering from ankle surgery and theoretically should be available later this summer, but that shouldn’t reassure anybody. Cody Bradford is on the mend, but he’s still working in fairly short stints in his rehab assignment. Winston Santos and David Davalillo, good options on paper at the outset of the year, do not seem ready to contribute meaningfully. Even the generic no. 4/5 starters on the market look like a real upgrade.

A similar sentiment applies in the bullpen. Jacob Latz has been great as a closer — the Rangers won’t be desperate to find this year’s version of Jhoan Duran or Mason Miller — but it’s hard to imagine them making a run through October with Peyton Gray and Jakob Junis as their top setup men. Even if you mostly trust those guys, there’s precious little depth behind them. As a unit, Texas’ bullpen is 15th in FIP, 27th in groundball rate, and 26th in strikeout rate. Those last two in particular look like a dicey combo in the playoffs.

The Rangers are also in the unenviable position of needing to find a catcher midseason. This didn’t look like a glaring weakness until very recently, but Danny Jansen hurt his elbow and is considering undergoing season-ending surgery, while Kyle Higashioka is also out indefinitely with a flexor strain. We don’t know if the Rockies would seriously consider moving Hunter Goodman, but Texas, arguably more than any team, should be kicking the tires in Denver. The same applies to Ryan Jeffers and really anything resembling an everyday catcher not nailed down on other clubs.

The Rangers’ needs are otherwise less acute on this side of the ball. There isn’t a replacement out there that offers more than what a healthy Seager and Jung can provide, and so the front office is mostly left to cross its fingers and hope they return as the most potent versions of themselves. Squint and you can see an average regular or better everywhere else.

State of the Farm

The arrow is down a little here relative to the offseason. The Rangers had five prospects on our February Top 100 list, and a baker’s dozen received a 40+ FV grade or better, but the pitchers in that tier haven’t progressed much. Caden Scarborough deserves a lot of grace for his uneven 2026 season — it feels wrong to fret much about a guy’s fastball velocity when he’s returning from cancer treatment — and he held his place on our midseason update. But while the rest of the crew — Davalillo, Santos, Jose Corniell, Leandro Lopez, and Marc Church — all looked poised to contribute this year, they’ve combined to throw all of six innings in Arlington.

The reasons why read like a failure to launch manual. Davalillo’s control fell completely apart in Triple-A, and he’s sprinkled in a lot of 91s and 92s on the gun in recent outings, a combination troubling enough that we dropped him from the Top 100. Santos fell off the list as well, in large part because he’s not getting results. He’s long been a personal favorite, and I still like his athleticism, arm strength, and changeup. At some point, though, you have to get hitters out, and it was untenable to keep a pitcher with a high-minors ERA north of 6.00 in that kind of orbit. Corniell’s stuff, which looked crisp in his return from injury last year, has backed up and he’s again on the IL. Lopez started giving up homers for the first time in his career this spring, and he too is on the shelf. Church’s grade was an aggressive projection on a reliever with good stuff; he’s continued to battle injuries and the strike zone, and was outrighted off of the 40-man earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the two hitters who ranked above the 40+ FV tier this offseason have also missed a lot of time. Sebastian Walcott has only played in 10 games this year, though he recently made his triumphant return from a UCL tear a little ahead of schedule, and has wasted no time reminding us why he’s one of the game’s best prospects. Paxton Kling has been out since mid-June with a wrist injury; before getting hurt, he’d put up decent surface-level numbers, albeit with more swing and miss and less power growth than I’d anticipated. There’s enough uncertainty here to slide him.

The positive energy in this system is mostly coming from the kids. Yolfran Castillo remains a stand out, as he’s hitting in Low-A and looks like an above-average defensive shortstop. His measurable power is up only slightly year over year, but he’s making a ton of contact and, more importantly, he has one of the most projectable frames in the low minors. His teammate, Paulino Santana, remains on the 40+ track, as he’s managed to hit for power in Low-A while slightly improving some of his scary contact metrics. He’s also physically projectable and could grow into real thump.

Arguably the two most interesting players in the system spent the summer in Surprise. The two-way guys both had productive years and, delightfully, we’re not much closer to seeing where on the field Seong-Jun Kim fits best long-term. He looks like a no. 4 pitching prospect, sitting 92-96 with impressive command for his age, particularly for a guy splitting his attention. On the other side of the ball, he still projects as a contact hitter and long-term fit at shortstop. I remain skeptical that he has the physicality to pull off double duty over the long haul, but for the time being, the game hasn’t told him to pick a lane just yet.

Josh Owens, meanwhile, has the physicality but might not have the contact skill. The power is legit, but he’s whiffing 35% of the time on the complex, and precious few hitters have missed that often at that level and gone on to have any kind of career. His fastball/slider mix looks pretty darn good on the mound, though, and it’s starting to look like that’s where his future lies. I’m already itching to see what kind of strides he can make as a pitcher — he isn’t yet throwing a change in games — if or when that becomes his full-time job.

The ACL club had a couple of other pleasant developments. Jay McQueen, a 20th-round, $280,000 flier out of a Mississippi high school in the 2025 draft, joins the list. While raw at the plate, McQueen has average power, he made a viable amount of contact on the complex and he showed some ability to move the bat head up and down. He’s a high-variance fourth outfielder prospect. Jacob Johnson gets some of the longest tail on a two-seamer I’ve encountered, and he pairs it with a slider that flashes above average. While he’ll need a beat to harness his fastball, he’s already got uncommonly good feel for locating the bender. After sneaking onto the main section of the offseason list, his arrow is up a little bit as well; like McQueen, he was recently promoted to Low-A Hickory.

For those who really like a sleeper, there’s Breyner Figuereo. He signed with the Cubs as an outfielder in the 2025 international class but was released after one season. The Rangers signed him, put him on the mound, and now he’s touching 98 with good feel for spin from the left side down in the DSL. He’s been aggressively fast-tracked onto the main section.

In the mid-minors, a couple of honorable mention bats have taken big steps forward. I’ve worn a hole in my shoe kicking myself for not listing Rafe Perich on the main section this spring. I liked him on the backfields in March of 2025, but lost my nerve after he posted pedestrian numbers as an older player in Low-A. He’s gone nuts at two levels in 2026, and his age (he’s 24) no longer looks so scary now that he’s giving Texas League arms a rough ride. A switch-hitter with plus raw power, he’s hit 10 homers in 44 games since a midseason promotion, with a barely a dip in his ability to make contact. We gave him a look as we built our recent Top 100 update and didn’t quite see a fit there, in part because he’s no more than a fringy defender at third, where he has a long, slow release and tends to scatter his throws. Still, if he can offer power off the bench and fill in at a couple of spots, that’s a big win for the Rangers amateur and dev groups.

Hector Osorio also slots in. He’s a hitterish outfielder who has suddenly bashed 21 homers out of nowhere. While I think some of the league and ball contexts explain a good deal of the power surge, you still have to pull the fly balls, which Osorio is proving that he can do.

Texas prioritized intriguing, risk/reward players in the draft. They also spent big early: Their first three draftees received bonuses north of $2 million, and then only one other guy in the entire class signed for more than $200,000. Gio Rojas was the best high school pitcher in the class and a potential no. 2/3 starter, though his delivery is more violent than you normally see out of a high school pitcher. Connor Comeau, who had committed to Texas A&M, has big lefty power projection, but less promising feel for contact. Brody Bumila is hurt and will have elbow surgery in Texas after his signs. He’s a spring pop-up arm with triple digit heat, freakish size, a precocious changeup, and a breaking ball that needs some pitch design love; we’ll see if this is the right org for him. Hudson Calhoun is a walk-prone reliever with a bat-missing fastball; he tucks in at the very end of the updated list.

A couple of other minor notes: Aidan Curry goes from the bottom of the 40 FV tier to near the top, as he’s throwing more strikes while working deeper into games in Double-A. Rotation mate Dalton Pence climbs with him. I was a little too bearish on the lefty’s command projection and chances to start in the spring, and in any case he alleviated some of the concerns I had about the moving parts in his delivery by making his motion more fluid and compact. If his slider continues to play like a plus pitch (I’m a little skeptical), Texas will really have something here.

Finally, a quick word on three recent early-round picks. AJ Russell, Malcolm Moore, and Dylan Dreiling are all holding steady. Russell looks ever more like a reliever, as he’s still heavily reliant on his fastball and prone to missing badly even with that pitch; he also hasn’t yet completed the fourth inning in any of his starts. Dreiling’s surface numbers have jumped considerably at Double-A this year, but once you adjust for context and take a look under the hood, he’s still tracking like a fourth outfielder. Moore, meanwhile, has struggled since a midseason promotion to Frisco, where his chase and strikeout rates have climbed markedly. Here are the players graded as 40 FVs and above on the updated list:

The team’s full list, complete with scouting reports and tool grades, can be found on The Board.

It’s rare, though not necessarily tricky, to find a backstop midseason. Contending teams don’t like to do it, as they’d understandably prefer not to have their starting catcher acquaint himself with a brand new pitching staff in the heat of a pennant race. The Rangers have to do that anyway, though, so they might as well see if they can find an everyday regular for the job. Clubs with catching to spare — Colorado, Minnesota, Miami, and perhaps Washington spring to mind — would presumably love to pry away Castillo or Scarborough, and may be able to make it work if they throw in some pitching to sweeten the deal. If not, Santos and Davalillo look like intriguing change-of-scenery candidates.

Among the prospective secondary pieces, the arrow-up arms in Frisco look attractive. Curry and Pence each have a chance to start and runway for growth (perhaps a little more velo as he fills out in Curry’s case, a better change in Pence’s). For the more adventurous sorts, McQueen and Figuereo have impact traits and enough risk to keep the price point fairly low.

As we approach August, now is a good time to take a fresh look at the farm systems of some of the clubs we expect to be buyers at the trade deadline. These teams are both contending for a playoff berth and in position to make a buyer’s style trade for a star big leaguer, the kind that will likely require parting with a top farmhand or two. We kicked things off with the Atlanta Braves, and we’ll continue today with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

In tandem with an evaluation of the team’s needs and deadline posture, I’ve updated Los Angeles’ prospect list to account for graduations, incorporate the team’s new draftees, and reflect developments on the farm. The Dodgers have a great farm system, heavy on outfield prospects and pitchers who throw hard but who might just be relievers.

The Situation

The Dodgers have a comfortable 12.5-game lead in the NL West. They’ve successfully weathered injuries to several key cogs on offense (Tommy Edman, Teoscar Hernández, and Will Smith) through a combination of their older stars remaining productive, and Andy Pages and Dalton Rushing improving. On the pitching side, their younger hurlers, especially Justin Wrobleski and several of the sophomore relievers, have stepped up after many of their other arms went down (including Edwin Díaz, Tyler Glasnow, and Blake Snell), and despite a full injury ward, Los Angeles has a top six pitching staff in most statistical categories. More reinforcements are on the way from within, as a few of the injured Dodgers (Díaz, Snell, and Enrique Hernández) are on rehab assignments as the trade deadline approaches, creating a bubble that will force some action on the margins of the big league roster. They may have to play musical chairs a bit as they decide how aggressively to pursue star-caliber improvements to their few weak spots. Read the rest of this entry »

For one day, the Marlins were probably going to make the playoffs. On July 8, after they’d shut out the Mariners, 2-0, our Playoff Odds gave the Fish a 51.5% chance of playing in October. It was the first time they’d crested 50% since 2023.

They had just swept the A’s in West Sacramento and were about to finish sweeping the Mariners at home. Crank, crank, crank, crank, crank went the roller coaster. With the final win against Seattle, the Marlins had won 16 out of 20, tied for the best 20-game span in franchise history. The six-game winning streak that closed that span put them 10 games above .500, at 52-42. Crank, crank, crank. They were tied with the Phillies for the second and third Wild Card spots. They were three full games ahead of the Cardinals in fourth place. Not only were the Marlins going to hold onto Sandy Alcantara at the deadline, wrote Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, but they were going to be buyers for the first time in Peter Bendix’s three years at the helm, “barring” — crank — “an utter” — crank — “collapse.” Then the Playoff Odds took a stomach-churning plunge. It was the opposite of the famous Sarah Langs Whee! It was an Eeew, and it was gross indeed.

The Marlins lost their next 12 games. Last night, after coming within an eyelash of unlucky 13, they finally broke the streak with a win. They blew a three-run lead to the Phillies in the sixth inning and went into the bottom of the ninth down two. But they came back to walk it off on a bases loaded single from Griffin Conine. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I helmed FanGraphs’ annual Trade Value Series, a list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball. As is customary, I built the list using my own insights as well as feedback from both the FanGraphs staff and a number of team personnel. But for the second straight year, mine wasn’t the only ranking in town. In addition to my rankings, our Crowdsourced Trade Value tool let any reader create their own list via a series of “which of these two players do you prefer” decisions.

Two weeks and 500,000 responses later, we turned those “this one or that one?” preferences into an aggregate list. You can see the crowd’s results here, as well as your own. If you’re interested in diving more deeply into the methodology we used to turn everyone’s individual votes into an aggregate ranking, last year’s version of this article has the specifics, but generally speaking, we take everyone’s individual player-versus-player results, combine them into one giant list, and sample them in a random order (a few times) to come up with a composite list of the preferences of all FanGraphs readers.

First, I wanted to highlight the crowd’s top 10, which looks a whole lot like my top 10:

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re a baseball fan, the end of July means one thing: Trades. That’s right, we’re less than a week away from this year’s deadline, which is set for Monday at 6 p.m. ET, and there’s plenty of action still to unfold. Even a real snoozer of a deadline tends to have at least a few big deals, and so far, the only real needle mover swap made was the fascinating challenge trade that sent Connelly Early from the Red Sox to the Nationals for Curtis Mead.

While we don’t know precisely what will actually happen, since there are no such things as oracles, we have an idea that something will occur, making the trade deadline the ideal time for wish-casting and imagineering. As I do every year, I whip up some trade scenarios that are plausible and productive. We usually get fun additional trade discussion in the comments, so make sure to check those out and maybe even add your own. I’d also suggest letting me know when I give up too much or too little in a trade. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re one week away from the August 3 trade deadline, and yet there’s still very little clarity for a handful of teams. The American League is a jumbled mess, and National League teams like the Nationals and Padres are straddling the buy/sell line, too. But one thing is for sure: The Angels will be sellers. What’s not yet settled is the extent to which they’ll sell.

With interim general manager John Mozeliak running the show after the ouster of Perry Minasian, the Angels suddenly have their most decorated baseball ops head since Bill Stoneman, the architect of the 2002 World Series champions, who briefly returned to handle the 2015 trade deadline. That came after a power struggle with manager Mike Scioscia led to Jerry Dipoto’s departure, and Stoneman went through with a handful of depth moves, bringing in post-prime David DeJesus, David Murphy, and Shane Victorino to bolster a club that was 55-47 at the July 31 deadline. Those Angels were just two games out of first place and had a three-in-four chance at making the playoffs. They finished 30-30, fading to third place and out of the playoff picture with an overall record of 85-77. They haven’t had a winning season since then, and they haven’t made the playoffs since the year before, when they won 98 games but were swept by the Royals in the ALDS. It’s been a miserable stretch for the Halos, one that will continue through the remainder of the season. As of Monday morning, our Playoff Odds projected the Angels to finish with their second-worst record in the last 30 years.

Still, these woes don’t have to drag on in perpetuity. The Angels have options aplenty as the trade deadline nears to try and change the direction of their wayward organization. Here are three paths they could take: Read the rest of this entry »