Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, welcome to my first solo chat of the 2019 regular season. I’ve got a short thing on Randal Grichuk’s extension up this morning (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/randal-grichuk-joins-the-extension-parade/) plus yesterday’s big piece on catcher framing and its impact on Hall of Fame consideration (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-mar…). on with the show!

RR: Are projections updated as the season goes on? The Mets won the last 2 games but their Proj wins fell… Not sure how that is possible without the underlying team strength changing. Any ideas?

Jay Jaffe: Our projections are updated, yes. I don’t know the specifics of why the Mets went down in this instance but it could result from revisions in estimated playing time on their team or elsewhere in the league. If, for example, the Braves were to sign Kimbrel, that would improve their projection and take a bite out of the competition’s projections, with the effect felt most within the division (since that’s who they play the most frequently).

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Small sample size, etc., but this sure seems like the season of bullpen meltdowns.

Jay Jaffe: Via our splits, nine teams have bullpens with ERAs over 5.00 right now, and seven teams have bullpen FIPs over 5.00. That’s <checks notes, pulls out slide rule and abacus, does math> not great.

Andrew: Trevor Rosenthal is having a really rough start: 3 appearances, 7 runs, 0 outs. I can’t remember the last time I saw someone fail to record an out in his first 3 appearances in a season.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! I’ll be heading out soon to see prep SS Nasim Nunez and keeping my attention on the early returns from NHSI, which wasn’t loaded enough (all the relevant colleges for 2019 draft talent around Cary are out of town) for me to make my yearly pilgrimage.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve got a newly-alive FG instagram page @fangraphs, featuring all of our fancy high speed video

Kiley McDaniel: And I’ve got a couple big features I’ve been working on, with one that’s internationally-focused coming possibly as soon as tomorrow. And we’re finishing up the lists.

Joe: Are any of the Cuban players from the list you tweeted 25/6yr guys that the Braves could possibly target since they can’t spend this July 2?

TJ: Is Miami in on any of these Cuban guys?

Kiley McDaniel: And some questions about what I reported last night, in a thread here:

Meg Rowley: Hi all,

Meg Rowley: and welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: Going to be a short one for me today, as there are Things to Edit and such.

henryv: Describe your feeling about this tweet:

Meg Rowley: Baseball is fun, and Mallex Smith is fun, and I like fun.

Knucklebear: On an excitement scale of 1 – 10. Should be Padres fan base be at an 11 or higher?

Dan Szymborski: It’s April, but I’m still having this lousy Smarch weather!

Z: Burnes, C. Smith, P. Lopez, Matz, Matz

ECDC: Why would Rendon sign an extension now when he’s pretty much the only FA for this coming offseason now?

Z: My fault, meant to say please rank them

Dan Szymborski: What format?

Dan Szymborski: Well, he could get a deal he likes, but yes, he’s rapidly becoming the only player in free agency!

Jay Jaffe: Happy Opening Day 2019 v2.0, and welcome to our Very Long Chat. Craig Edwards, Paul Sporer and I are warming up at our respective keyboards, practicing our quips and disses, and crunching all kinds of numbers in order to scientifically predict every aspect of the baseb — wait, scrap that last one, it still can’t be one in 2019. In any event, we’ll get things started here around 1 pm, give or take, but feel free to fill the queue with your questions in the meantime.

Craig Edwards: We have lineups for actual baseball games that start during my normal waking hours, and in 15 minutes, we are going to be able to watch those games. Get excited.

Craig Edwards:

FrodoBeck: I have done nothing at work all day and I blame baseball

Craig Edwards: Your afternoon doesn’t look much better from a productivity perspective.

Craig Edwards: Yankee stadium’s pump up music for the National Anthem is Daft Punk.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout it outside running around like a maniac and the house smells like garlic because I’ve been cooking and I’m a little heavy handed on that front

Lilith: When can we expect to see a new mock draft?

Kiley McDaniel: well we haven’t done one yet and it’s a little silly at this point. we have some concept of the types of players or a couple on the shortlist for clubs in the top 5-10, or maybe clubs lower in the draft that have a very specific type (the Nationals are one) where we can narrow things down pretty well. but at least half of the top 30 picks would be mostly a guess at this point and that’s not content that meets our guidelines.

The West is Wild: Is Geraldo Perdomo the most publicly “under the radar” prospect for the Diamondbacks?

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, he and Blaze Alexander were the two popup guys in the short minors for Arizona last summer. Both are strong 40s or 40+s at this point. The guys ahead of them that aren’t top 132 are mostly high picks, so yeah that would be the top sleeper names for the DBacks

Mark: Will you guys be releasing more detailed scouting on draft prospects?  (by this I mean the scouting grades are great, but the description bubbles are a little light at this point)

Meg Rowley: Hi everyone! We’ll get started in a few minutes here. Just need to get a few editorial things sorted. You can blame all the of the baseball teams doing all of the baseball extensions.

Meg Rowley: A minute more. Apologies, apologies.

Meg Rowley: Ok, here I am.

Meg Rowley: Sorry folks, I had to confer with Tech Wizard Sean Dolinar on Matters of Great Import

Lilith: How cool is it that the Reds have a guy that can play both shortstop and catcher on their roster?

Meg Rowley: It is indeed very cool.

Dan Szymborski: Boomshakalakagravyfries

Andy: Which team needs Dan Strailly the most?

Dan Szymborski: Bowie Baysox?

Anonymous: Do you find yourself underreacting to small sample sizes?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.

Iron Man: Is it worrisome that Keuchel hasn’t found a home yet?

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy howdy, let’s chat

GPT: Have you had the opportunity to see Giants spring training yet, any standouts if so?

Eric A Longenhagen: yes was there yesterday, actually. Sean Hjelle looks pretty good, certainly the fastball does. 92-94 with tough angle and some life. Gregory Santos was 93-95 yesterday, some plus sliders. Marco Luciano looks incredible but we knew that already.

David: More total future value: The three first-rounders the Padres signed in 2016 (Quantrill, Potts, Lauer), or the three future first-rounders (Rolison, Bishop, Bleday) they called but didn’t sign on day three?

Eric A Longenhagen: the latter group

Edgar: Is late 2020 a feasible debut for Andrew Vaughn? Despite height, can he be a 25 HR guy?