Jay Jaffe: Hello folks, and welcome to the FanGraphs ALCS Game 1 chat. I’ll be joined by Dan Szymborski shortly and we’ll get this thing up to speed. For the moment, here’s my ALCS preview: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-new-york-yankees-vs-hou…

And here’s Dan’s ZiPS-driven game-by-game odds. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas…

Shaun: Is this a “must-win” for the Yankees? Down 1-0 with Verlander and Cole on full rest in games 2-3 doesn’t sound great.

Jay Jaffe: I’m hesitant to call any single game outside of an elimination game a must-win, but obviously, the Yankees’ road to four wins is more difficult if they lose tonight, and the likelihood that they can beat both Verlander AND Cole in back-to-back games would mean that they’re almost certainly playing from behind.

Guest: It is a pleasure to share this evening with you in this chat, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks, it’s good to be here. I previewed this series and I’ll be covering the New York leg of the series on-site, so I thought it would be worth chatting during it as well. Emma and I are home watching baseball anyway

Dan Szymborski: Good evening!

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, and welcome to our chat for Game One of the NLCS.

Ben Clemens: Dan Szymborski has a preview for you:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-st-louis-cardinals-vs-w…

Ben Clemens: Or if you’d prefer Dan’s numbers in a handy chart, here are his game-by-game forecasts:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas…

Ben Clemens: Jason Martinez wrote about how the Cardinals built their roster:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/how-they-were-acquired-the-st-…

Ben Clemens: And how the Nationals built theirs:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/how-they-were-acquired-the-was…

Ben Clemens: Ben Kaspick and I will be here throughout the game to chat with you about baseball.

Craig Edwards: Are you excited? I’m Jessespano.gif excited.

Craig Edwards: We will get things going here shortly. It will be me and Kiley for the early games with Dan Szymborski and Nick Dika taking on the later games.

Craig Edwards: Here’s a quick things I wrote about the starters today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/the-nlds-game-5-pitching-match…

Craig Edwards: Cardinals lineup:

Craig Edwards: and Braves:

Craig Edwards: Couple polls:

Ben Clemens: Hey guys, and welcome to our Game 4 chat. There’s only one show in town today, quite a change from yesterday’s circus.

Ben Clemens: If you’d like to read what we wrote about this series before it started, here’s Brendan Gawlowski’s preview:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-houston-astros-vs-tampa…

Ben Clemens: Or if you’d like to read what Rachael McDaniel had to say about a cathartic game three for the Rays:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/faith-hope-etcetera-in-st-petersburg/

Ben Clemens: ZiPS likes the Astros in this game by roughly a 58/42 margin:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?seas…

Ben Clemens: And while ZiPS takes into account rest, here’s Craig Edwards on the possible effects of short rest on Justin Verlander, particularly as it relates to his fastball:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/considering-justin-verlander-o…

Ben Clemens: Lastly, if for whatever reason you’re not really into the Astros/Rays game, don’t fret. We had all kinds of nonsense on the site today, from Devan writing about Jesus Luzardo:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jesus-luzardo-should-make-as-fans-excited-…
To me doing some math on intentional walks:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/to-walk-or-not-to-walk/
Or if you’re looking for the good stuff, Jay Jaffe on starters turning back the clock:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/starting-pitching-is-making-a-postseason-c…

Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to our NLDS Braves-Cardinals Game 4 chat. Tony Wolfe will be joining me. First pitch is coming in four minutes, and right now, in the only game that’s live, the Rays are pouring it on the Astros 8-1 in the fourth inning, so it looks like that series will not end with a sweep

Manta: Just a question, but why aren’t we talking about the Rays-Astros?

Jay Jaffe: We didn’t have enough bodies available to cover all four games today, and this time slot worked better for me when I planted my flag in our spreadsheet.

Roger: How long does Keuchel go with the platoon disadvantage and Teheran and Tomlin available?

Tony Wolfe: I have to think Keuchel gets a little bit of wiggle room. It isn’t as though Teheran is dominant against righties, though he did pitch well against St. Louis this season (10 IP, 1 R, 4 H).

Jay Jaffe: I imagine this will be dictated by results to some degree. He’s at a disadvantage (.314  wOBA vs RHB career, .267 vs LHB, against a lineup with 2 lefties). With a 2-1 lead, he definitely has a longer leash than if the Braves were down 2-1

Meg Rowley: Hey everyone — thanks for joining us. We’ll get started right around first pitch, but feel free to drop your questions in before that. Go baseball!

Josh Herzenberg: Yankees lineup (Paxton on the mound): DJ LeMahieu (R) 1B
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Brett Gardner (L) CF
Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH
Giancarlo Stanton (R) LF
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Gary Sanchez (R) C
Didi Gregorius (L) SS
Gio Urshela (R) 3B

Josh Herzenberg: Twins lineup (Berrios on the mound): Mitch Garver (R) C
Jorge Polanco (S) SS
Nelson Cruz (R) DH
Eddie Rosario (L) RF
Miguel Sano (R) 3B
Max Kepler (L) CF
Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF
C.J. Cron (R) 1B
Luis Arraez (L) 2B

Josh Herzenberg: Jay (who will be joining us here to chat a little bit later) wrote the preview for this series, which can be found here if you haven’t read it already: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-new-york-yankees-vs-min…

Josh Herzenberg: Alright folks, let get this thing rolling

Nico Robin: over/under on 5 HRs per game this series?

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, and welcome to the ALDS Game 1 chat.

Ben Clemens: We have a pretty good roster today- Dan, Jay, and Josh.

Ben Clemens: Some links for your pleasure:

Ben Clemens: First, today’s series preview:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-preview-houston-astros-vs-tampa…

Ben Clemens: The ZiPS projections, artisanally crafted by none other than Dan Szymborski:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips

Ben Clemens: And since I really enjoyed it (though it has no bearing on today), Jay on Mickey Callaway: