Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat. We’ll get started in just a second here.

Gene: I’m very bored in Economics. Will the Mets pitching be fine?

Meg Rowley: Hmmm maybe?

henryv: Best former Seattle baseball team name: Pilots, Hustlers, Yannigans, Clamdiggers, Siwashes, Chinooks, or Turks?

Meg Rowley: Clamdiggers or Chinooks imo.

CamdenWarehouse: I was happy to hear you are on the right side of the almond/soy/etc milk vs. juice debate

Dan Szymborski: It has begun.

Dan Szymborski: The chat, which should be obvious from context.

CamdenWarehouse: Is it too April to start wondering seriously if the Orioles can set a new HR allowed record?

Dan Szymborski: Of course not.

Dan Szymborski: They may do it by August.

Josh Nelson: I looked up what the Skyline Coney Dog looks like. I’m kinda mad at you. https://www.skylinechili.com/coneys.php

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to the latest edition of our usual Thursday chat. The questions in the queue are piling up, so without further ado…

Corbin Burnes: Do I have a Home Run Problem?

Jay Jaffe: Oh, indeed. 11 home runs in just 17.2 innings, and from among just 19 flyballs. I’ve got an entry devoted to Burnes in the forthcoming companion to yesterday’s piece, which will be titled “Let’s Get Weird, Again: Extreme Pitcher Stats So Far”

stever20: What do you make of Chris Sale?  His career in April normally is pretty good(before this year 2.82 ERA).  So it’s not like he normally starts slowly.  Even brought in his personal catcher and that didn’t help.

Jay Jaffe: I’m more worried about Sale with each passing start, but I think it really comes down to a lack of arm strength brought about by a slow build up this winter. He’s just not the same pitcher if he can’t get his velocity up to where it normally lives, and right now, his fastball is getting tattooed for a 1.095 SLG and a 322 wRC+ (also in today’s forthcoming piece).

Rather than sending him out there every fifth day, I do think the Red Sox should DL him and send him back to extended spring training to ramp up, because he’s not helping them by getting hammered each time out.

Tel: What’s the deal with the playoff odds graphs?  The Yankees beat the Red Sox 8-0 on Tuesday and their playoff odds went down from 91.1% to 84.4%?  The Red Sox went up from 52.8% to 54.4% or so yesterday but this morning are back to 50.7% in the odds numbers dated yesterday.  I know things change based on playing time estimates etc., but what’s the point of a graph if you can’t gloat over your team crushing their rival and moving the needle on the odds?  Seems like if you’re putting up a graph the changes should be based on how the team is playing rather than how Fangraphs staff changed the team’s playing time estimates.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Had a lunch date with friends of the chat Nick Piecoro and Keith Law (name drops) but I’m here to chat with you

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast went up today about my recent Florida trip, extension talk and GOT hot takes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniel-welcomes-th…

Jeff: Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel: An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they’ll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it’s probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn’t as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

Shooter : Couple of draft questions…what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

Kiley McDaniel: Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

Meg Rowley: Hello all, and welcome to the chat. Allow me a moment to schedule a post, and then we’ll get started.

Meg Rowley: Alright

Meg Rowley: I am here

Meg Rowley: Thank you for your patience!

dmitry: I get the Yanks, they’ve been killed with injuries.. but why are the Sox so bad so far?

Meg Rowley: Turns out that when your pitching is shaky it can be tricky to win baseball games.

Dan Szymborski: I WANT MY ELEPHANT

Dan Szymborski: Begin communiqué.

Andy: Is it unfair that some teams can use like an 8 man rotation, and just send some of the players to triple A and not use up roster spots?

Dan Szymborski: Next year, minimum option times are going to be 20 days.

Dan Szymborski: err 15 days

Dan Szymborski: 2020

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Please give me a minute to do something to the Royals list (which runs Monday) before I forget.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, let’s begin

Chris: What do you see out of Spencer Howard, Daniel Lynch and DL Hall? Can any of them develop into being a #3 or better?

Eric A Longenhagen: Howard and Hall have a chance for 3 pluses with fringe command, Lynch could be a bunch of 55s with 55 command. That’s right on the #3/4 fringe depending on the inning load

Lilith: Why do you prefer Abrams over Witt?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better feel to hit

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to today’s chat. I’m going to give the queue a few moments to fill up while I order lunch, please hang tight.

Kenny Williams: Does a rebuilding baseball team have a responsibility to put a team on the field that is moderately entertaining?  Or is losing and planning for the future the only priority?

Jay Jaffe: Ok, poke bowl ordered. On with the show

Jay Jaffe: Kenny, that’s a fundamental question that the union and owners really need to think hard about in advance of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, because the current rules have clearly made rebuilding — while profiting handsomely by fielding low-payroll teams with much less threat to decreasing revenue — an enticing option. Baseball is a business, but also entertainment, and if you can’t convince fans that you have SOMETHING to see, even if it’s green prospects finding their way at the major league level for the first time, then something is wrong. I do think the next CBA needs to work on tightening the connection between winning and revenue (especially revenue sharing) in order to prevent so many teams from being non-competitive at the same time.

Ben: How much of the Yankees early issues can be blamed on the injuries? They have been massive, but even the healthy players aren’t performing – Britton looks bad, and Boone has made some awful decisions lately

Jay Jaffe: For all of the lineup’s losses (Stanton, Andujar, Gregorius, Hicks), the offense has scored over 5 runs per game and is fourth in wRC+ (127). Where they’re feeling the injuries the most, i think, is the bullpen, where Betances’ absence has exacerbated the struggles of Britton, Green, Kahnle and even Chapman.

Let’s remember that the one thing that makes managers look the worst in the public eye is when the relievers he calls upon don’t do the job — regardless of his options or what the data says, the knee-jerk reaction is that he’s chosen poorly.