Yesterday, we released the results of the back half of the 2019 FanGraphs Franchise Player Draft. As a reminder, the idea behind the exercise is simple: throwing out existing contracts, teams, and other real life sundry, which player would you most want to build a baseball franchise around if you were starting from scratch? Today, we offer picks 1-15 for your amusement and derision. Enjoy!

…

Devan Fink, Pick 1: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
There’s no easier pick than Mike Trout at No. 1. He’s the only player in the league who guarantees elite production every year. Every time we think we’ve found someone better — whether it be Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Christian Yelich, or Cody Bellinger — Trout comes back to remind us why he reigns supreme.

Since 2005, no player has produced more WAR than Trout’s 71.0. He didn’t even debut until 2011. He has posted eight straight seasons with a wRC+ of 167 or better. He’s rated out as a positive defender in all but two seasons. Heck, even his baserunning has been worth 4.5 runs this year, eighth-best in the majors.

Perhaps the only downside, if you want to call it that, is Trout’s age. Position players tend to peak around 28, and Trout is 27. We don’t know how gracefully he will decline, but even at 70 or 80 percent of his current talent level, Trout would be one of the best. Age should not deter me.

Mike Trout is the best player of this generation. He could go down as the best player in baseball history. Wanting to start my team with anyone else would be foolish.

Eric Longenhagen, Pick 2: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
I assumed Trout would be off the board at No. 1, so my mix for this selection was Lindor, Mookie Betts (who I’d have announced as a second baseman), and Alex Bregman. Frankie is fourth among hitters in WAR since 2016 and would probably be third, ahead of Christian Yelich, had he not missed a few weeks this year with a calf and then ankle injury. He’s an elite athlete and defender at a premium position, and a dynamic offensive player who has grown into more power than even those who were most enthused about his future anticipated he would while he was a prospect. A switch-hitter with a 116 wRC+ from the left side and a 128 wRC+ from the right side, Lindor is also matchup-proof in an age when teams are more intelligently and proactively attacking hitters with relievers.

He also has the emotional maturity and easy-going affability suited to being a franchise’s cultural cornerstone, both in the clubhouse and off the field. His well-known, infectious smile and effervescence are great to be around, but he’s also an intense, vocal leader when he needs to be and has been willing to confront veterans about their play. Is that as important as his talent? No, but when everyone at the top of this draft is an elite talent, it’s a separator.

Rian Watt, Pick 3: Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
If Trout had been on the board at three, I’d have taken Trout. But Bregman would have been my choice even if I’d had Eric’s slot at two, as much as I love Lindor and Cody Bellinger (the other two players I considered here). That’s because Alex Bregman is 25 years old, already does just about everything right on the baseball field, and is still getting better. After hitting 31 homers across 700 or so plate appearances last year, he already has 23 in half that many trips to the plate so far this season. Last year, he was already one of the few players in baseball to walk more than he struck out (just four qualified players met that standard last year) and this year he’s bumped his walk rate more than three points while holding his strikeout rate basically steady. He’s good on the bases, and he’s terrific with the glove at third. He’s bilingual, a rock in the clubhouse, and already a world champion. Besides Trout, who is the best baseball player most of us will ever see, there’s nobody I’d want more to start a franchise with than Bregman.

Brendan Gawlowski, Pick 4: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
This was not an easy decision. To the consternation of my friends, I interrupted a good half hour of our trip pinging back and forth between FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, making sure I took the right guy here. Would I be overreacting to select Cody Bellinger after a hot three months? To pass over Mookie Betts after his (relatively) slow start? Isn’t Christian Yelich the safe option? Would this blurb be more interesting if I picked Ohtani?

Ultimately, it came down to the swing. In an era characterized by uppercut hacks, Bellinger’s steep and swift cut still stands out for its unapologetic force. It’s easy to imagine how, in trusted hands, that swing could produce a 40-homer season or three. It is not, however, the measured and efficient stroke we associate with the game’s most judicious hitters. And yet Bellinger has walked more than he’s struck out this season. Anyone who can do this kind of damage, with that kind of discipline, must be pretty special. To top it all off, he’s also just 23 and he plays a capable center field. He is a remarkable talent, and a guy I feel comfortable drafting No. 4 overall.

Audrey Stark, Pick 5: Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
When selecting a franchise player, I wanted a “veteran” with consistently above-average play in the field and at the plate. It is important for this player to have experience so they can take on a leadership role in the clubhouse, but also have enough playing years left to be a cornerstone for this new ballclub over the next several seasons. At the end of the day, I felt like Anthony Rendon exemplifies all of those things.

Since the beginning of the 2017 season, his WAR is fourth in all of baseball. He has 144 wRC+ over that period and a 23.6 defensive rating. Rendon is a consistent hitter and an above-average third baseman. He is also a low-key, unproblematic person. Rendon seems like a genuinely good human, in addition to being a great baseball player. He is involved in the Nationals’ charity organization and his biggest scandal was cutting off his hair. I like watching him play; that’s the sort of person I’d like to build a team around.

Jason Martinez, Pick 6: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Through his first 55 games as a big leaguer, Tatis has been a human highlight-reel with a collection of amazing baserunning and defensive feats. Even as he skyrocketed up the prospect rankings in recent years, there were some concerns that he wouldn’t be able to stick at shortstop long-term. Now, it would be difficult to tell which defender on the left side of the Padres’ infield is nicknamed “El Ministro de Defensa” and which one was in Double-A this time last season. While Manny Machado has been as good as advertised at the hot corner, it’s Tatis who seems to steal the show on a regular basis.

And the kid can hit, too. At his current pace, the 20-year-old would have 135 runs, 27 doubles, 15 triples, 41 home runs, 97 RBI, and 38 stolen bases over his first 162 games. Which shortstops have put up numbers that even remotely resemble those? A few players come to mind, all amongst the greatest to ever step foot on a baseball diamond.

There’s no question that we’re witnessing a rare five-tool shortstop in action. What makes Tatis stand out even more, however, are the incredible baseball instincts that enhance each one of those tools. It’s a big part of why he can be so good at such a young age, and why he’s the kind of player who you would build your franchise around.

Sung Min Kim, Pick 7: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
If I were start a new franchise, there aren’t a lot of players I’d want more than the 27-year-old Christian Yelich. Sometimes, you don’t have to overthink it. Hitting for a 180 wRC+ and slashing .329/.433/.707 with 31 home runs through 82 games, Yelich is one of the bona-fide superstars of major league baseball. While his defense is not all that elite, his bat has amassed enough value to boast a 5.1 WAR, third-best among all positional players. The ridiculous thing about Yelich is that he’s taken steps to be a more dangerous hitter after his 2018 MVP campaign. He’s hitting fewer grounders (2.20 GB/FB compared to 1.11) while lifting the ball more (23.5 FB% to 38.7%), which has resulted in a higher home run rate despite a lower HR/FB rate (35.0% vs. 34.1%). What he’s doing right now is so ridiculous that you couldn’t possibly expect him to keep up this pace for the rest of the season or the next few years … unless he does. Even if things normalize a bit, he’d still be a 5-WAR player who has a lot of good years left in the tank.

Eli Ben-Porat, Pick 8: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Baseball’s current economic environment necessitates accumulating surplus value by leveraging cost controlled years. Given the recent trend of team-friendly deals, especially those that included free-agent years, it seemed imperative to build a franchise around one of these players. Players who fit that mold (and were available at No. 8) were Wander Franco, Ronald Acuna, Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto, and Vlad Jr.

No prospect is a sure thing, but prospects who hit for power and don’t strike out are a very rare breed. Wander Franco, despite being extremely young for his level, has walked 50% more than he’s struck out, all while hitting for power and getting on base at a high clip. To top off his flawless profile, he also looks likely to stick at shortstop. Vlad Jr. shares a lot of the same traits as Franco, but he’s likely to be a liability on defense, much like Juan Soto.

The decision came down to Franco, Torres, and Acuna, all players who have shown they can play up the middle. They’re all young, but at 18, Franco is the youngest, a cornerstone I can build around for years to come.

Nick Pollack, Pick 9: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Mookie Betts was an easy choice and doesn’t require much defending. He’s a blend of offensive and defensive excellence, putting up 33.6 WAR in four-and-a-half seasons worth of games. Even in 2019’s “down” first half, Betts has still posted a 124 wRC+ as he holds a -2% strikeout-to-walk ratio, seemingly on the precipice of a return to the elites in the second half. Oh, and his glove is still ridiculously good in the outfield.

And on top of all his on-the-field talents, a franchise player needs to be a leader. A player who builds a clubhouse, displays maturity to steer new members in the right direction, a face of an organization who forces outsiders to flock to what you’re selling. Betts carries this without question, providing a steady rock to set the proper tone to lead a team.

At a young age of 26-years-old, Betts is an excellent combination of veteran leadership and elite performance while being highly capable of handling himself as the leader of a team. Honestly, who wouldn’t want Mookie Betts?

Tony Wolfe, Pick 10: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
I strongly considered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. here because of the enormous upside that comes with his bat and his incredibly young age. Then I remembered Ronald Acuna Jr. is just one year older than Vlad, has almost as much upside offensively, and has already amassed nearly 7.0 WAR in 201 big league games. Acuna, 21, currently sits in the 95th percentile in both sprint speed and xwOBA, and has made some strides as a defender in center field. If we factored in team control, salaries, and all of that into this draft, Acuna’s legitimately gross contract might make him the No. 1 overall pick. But even after that’s set aside, it’s difficult for me to imagine a better player to build around than the center fielder, barely of legal drinking age, who already hits the ball harder than almost anyone else, runs faster than almost anyone else, and walks 10 percent of the time.

Mike Podhorzer, Pick 11: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
I immediately eliminated pitchers from consideration, as their skills change more rapidly and injuries seemingly derail their performances more frequently than hitters. I wanted a hitter who could add defensive value, in addition to being highly productive at the plate, and of course, is young enough to still be in his prime. It’s easy to forget that Manny Machado just turned 27, as it feels like he has been around forever. It’s true that he hasn’t been absolutely elite offensively during his career, but he has still been pretty darn good (.349 wOBA and 120 wRC+). While he hasn’t performed nearly as well with the glove at shortstop as at third base, his ability to play two premium positions competently (and he has been a fantastic third baseman throughout his career) provides valuable roster flexibility. With strong contributions from both sides of the field, he’s clearly a guy to build a club around.

Dylan Higgins, Pick 12: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
I won’t insist that Shohei Ohtani is the most talented baseball player on the planet, but I’m willing to suggest it. Do you want someone that hits the ball very hard? What about someone who runs very fast? An ace pitcher should certainly be near the top of your list. Ohtani checks every box, having already proven to be outstanding at the plate and on the mound, and he hasn’t even had the opportunity to show what he could do in the field.

Baseball has had several multi-sport stars in the century since it last saw a legitimate two-way legend. Bo Jackson was absolutely incredible, but he wasn’t especially productive (7.7 WAR in 694 games across seven seasons). Ohtani is already over halfway there (4.1 WAR) after 1 1/2 years, and that’s including a Tommy John surgery and no defense. I will sell so many Sho Knows t-shirts.

Ohtani is a superstar on both sides of the ball and both sides of the globe, and he hasn’t come close to reaching his potential. He’s just 25, he can already do everything, and he isn’t even healthy. I am in love with the face of my new franchise at pick No. 12.

David Laurila, Pick 13: Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
When I learned we would be doing this draft, one of my first thoughts was “If he’s available, I’m taking Fernando Tatis Jr.” The opportunity never presented itself — he was long gone by the time my pick rolled around — so I defaulted to Rafael Devers, who I liken to a young David Ortiz. Then I changed my mind. Is there a more-under-appreciated superstar in the game of baseball than Matt Chapman? Superstar? Yes, it is reasonable to place that tag on the 26-year-old Oakland Athletics third baseman.

Brooks Robinson is in the Hall of Fame because he was an all-time great defender at the hot corner, as well as a steady, productive hitter. Chapman is on track to be just that. His glove is as good as it gets, while his offensive numbers — don’t forget that he plays his home games in Oakland — are quietly superb. He’s on pace to hit 40 home runs this year, and his wOBA and wRC+ since the start of last season are .369 and 136 respectively. He’s been worth 10 WAR over that same period. Matt Chapman is the type of player you can build a team around.

Paul Sporer, Pick 14: Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Torres is a 22-year old, up the middle infielder who showed that his debut effort (120 wRC+) was not only legit but may have undersold his premium bat. He takes a 130 mark into the second half and was rightfully named to his first All-Star game. Torres doesn’t have any 70s on his scouting report but rather a collection of 50-60 grade tools that add up to elite upside. Small plate skill improvements this year have him closer to his minor league rates (20% K, 10% BB) and if he continues to produce at this clip, he will have a double digit walk rate annually. His defense at shortstop isn’t top of the scale but it’s good enough to hold the position for the foreseeable future, with second base remaining a perfectly reasonable fallback. One of the game’s brightest stars, Torres could soon be hitting 30+ home runs while landing in the 4-5 WAR range every year.

Jake Mailhot, Pick 15: Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
No one in baseball hits the ball harder than Joey Gallo. There are few who walk more than Joey Gallo. There are even fewer still who strikeout more than Joey Gallo. Therein lies the risk in picking him to headline this hypothetical baseball franchise. But the power is just so tantalizing. And to his credit, he’s made some real changes to his approach at the plate this year. He’s chasing pitches out of the zone far less often while managing to hit the ball harder than ever. When he does make contact—even if it isn’t all that often—he’s running an expected wOBA of .686! He’s also no slouch in the field either. He’s put up positive defensive marks at all three outfield positions and can play either infield corner in a pinch. That defensive value and flexibility elevates him above some of the other bat-first options on the board. His relative youth—he’ll turn 26 this November—gives him the perfect mix of short term and long term value. Picking Gallo feels like an endorsement of a particular baseball aesthetic, one centered around the three true outcomes, but his strong skills beyond his extreme power makes him a franchise cornerstone.

We do not live in an exciting time for record chases. Ichiro’s single-season hits record is perfectly safe, as is Barry Bonds‘ home run record. The records that are getting broken are of the team variety, and even those seem to be as much a sign of the times as they are reflective of a team’s historical excellence. The team home run record, for example, is about to fall for a second straight year, with the Minnesota Twins on pace to demolish the 2018 Yankees’ mark. The record for strikeouts recorded by a pitching staff has been broken in each of the last two seasons as well.

Still, there is at least one team record in jeopardy that’s worth a bit more discussion. In the first half of the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks stole 50 bases in 56 attempts, good for an 89.3% success rate. The all-time record, set by the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies, is 87.9%.

Is it the sexiest record in sports? It is not. Is that a jaw-dropping gap between the record pursuer and the current record holder? Nope! But I’m not here to talk about what it would mean if the D-backs edged the 2007 Phillies out by a decimal point or two at the end of the season. What I’d like to talk about instead is what it would mean if Arizona finished the year with a 90% success rate.

Before we talk about a 90% stolen-base success rate, let’s discuss an 80% success rate. Since the beginning of the live ball era, just 38 teams in major league history have finished a season with a stolen-base success rate of 80% or higher. Here are those 38 teams: Read the rest of this entry »

Jim Bouton first made his mark as a star right-hander for the Yankees at the tail end of their 45-year dynasty, winning 39 games in the 1963-64 regular seasons (plus two more in a pair of World Series), and making one All-Star team (’63). Yet his second act — after he injured his arm, lost his fastball, and hung on to his career literally by his fingernails, trying to tame the knuckleball with the expansion Seattle Pilots — was far more interesting and impactful. Bouton began keeping notes chronicling his travails, which, with the help of editor (and fellow iconoclast) Leonard Shecter, became Ball Four. His candid, irreverent, and poignant “tell-some” account of his 1969 season with the Pilots, Triple-A Vancouver Mounties, and Houston Astros not only became a best seller, it revolutionized the coverage of athletes, and keyed a proliferation of inside-baseball books that went far beyond the diamond. Recognized in 1996 as the only sports book among the 159 titles selected for the New York Public Library Books of the Century, Ball Four brought Bouton enough fame and notoriety to last a lifetime. That lifetime ended on Wednesday, when Bouton, who was 80 years old and suffering from vascular dementia, passed away at his home in Great Barrington, Massachusetts.

With its candid glimpse into the lives of major league ballplayers — hard-drinking, skirt-chasing, amphetamine-popping athletes using four-letter words — as they attempted to cope with the pressures and the boredom of the game, Ball Four was raunchy and controversial. Set against a backdrop of social upheaval, the outsider Bouton often found himself at odds with his teammates regarding the war in Vietnam, race relations, politics, and the burgeoning union movement within the game, which would eventually challenge the Reserve Clause, leading to higher salaries and the right to free agency.

Amazingly, such an explosive exposé did not win Bouton many friends within baseball. Fellow players accused him of violating the sacred trust of the locker room. His ex-Yankees teammates were said to take it very hard, particularly Mickey Mantle, whose debauchery had previously been hidden from fans by writers who had sanitized heroes for public consumption. Bouton, whose major league career ended shortly after the book was published in 1970 (though he made a brief comeback with the Braves in 1978), was effectively blacklisted by the Yankees until 1998, after the tragic death of his daughter Laurie in an automobile accident prompted his son Michael to write an open letter to the New York Times, asking the team to help Bouton heal old wounds by inviting him to Old-Timers’ Day. They did, and Bouton was greeted with a warm ovation. His cap flew off on his first pitch, a signature from his playing days.

When excerpts of Ball Four first appeared in Look Magazine in the spring of 1970, MLB commissioner Bowie Kuhn tried to get Bouton to recant his claims and state that the book was fiction. “It was the perfect form of censorship,” the pitcher-turned-author recalled in 2010, on the occasion of the book’s 40th anniversary. “The publisher had only printed 5,000 copies on the grounds that nobody would want to read a book about the Seattle Pilots written by a washed-up knuckleball pitcher. Then the baseball Commissioner calls me in, and they have to print another 5,000 and then 50,000 and then 500,000 books…” Including 10th, 20th, and 30th anniversary editions with epilogues that created what MLB’s official historian John Thorn called “a candid, sometimes heartbreaking extended memoir without parallel in American literature,” Ball Four sold millions of copies worldwide. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s strange to say for a player who has been a magnet for controversy for most of his major league career, but Yasiel Puig has had a pretty quiet 2019. It’s likely you know two things about his season so far. First, he was pressing to start the season, swinging at far more pitches than usual and getting poor results to show for it. Through June 9th, in fact, Puig had a 58 wRC+. Second, Puig fought Pirates. Not in a curse-you-Jack-Sparrow way, either — the still of his one-man brawl against the Pirates was the image of the early season.

After that, you’d be forgiven for thinking Puig and the Reds might just fade into obscurity for the rest of the year. As of that June 9th date I selected up above, Puig had been worth -.6 WAR on the year, and the Reds were eight games out of first in the NL Central. But a funny thing happened on the way to playing out the string: the Reds, and Puig, played themselves back into contention as the rest of the NL Central fell apart.

If you look at Puig’s stats right this minute, you might wonder what all the fuss is about. He has a 101 wRC+ on the year and has been worth exactly 1 WAR in just over half of a season. That sounds like a roughly average player. But here’s the thing: we’re barely a month past June 9th. Puig, as you’ll recall, had been worth -.6 WAR up to that point. In the past month, Puig has been a house on fire. How has he done it? He’s gotten back to being Puig. Read the rest of this entry »

The Texas Rangers selected Texas Tech infielder Josh Jung eighth overall in last month’s amateur draft. They followed that up by taking Baylor infielder Davis Wendzel with the 41st overall pick. The Big 12 Conference co-players of the year both signed on the dotted line last week, Jung for a reported $4.4 million, Wendzel for a reported $1.6 million. Following get-ready stints at the team’s facility in Surprise, Arizona, each is expected to join short-season Spokane for the duration of the summer.

According to Rangers GM Jon Daniels, it wasn’t purely by chance that accomplished collegiate bats were his club’s top two selections.

“We didn’t make an about-face in our philosophy, but we did probably make a little more of a conscious effort to manage risk up top,” Daniels told me in mid-June. “That kind of dovetailed into where the strengths of the draft were, which in our opinion was more college than high school, and a little heavier on the position player side.”

The industry agreed with that assessment — only one prep pitcher went in the first 25 picks — but whether this was an outlier draft or not, pitchers are widely seen as riskier propositions. When I asked if that was a primary factor, Daniels delivered his answer with a wry smile. Read the rest of this entry »

There are generally three ways of bringing new players into a baseball organization: trades, free agency, and amateur signings, either through the draft or international free agent market. There isn’t necessarily a “best” way, as successful teams are built using a wide variety of methods. The table below shows WAR totals for the first half of the season split into the three categories above, along with waivers and Rule 5 picks, which constitute a very small portion of the total:

As the chart shows, homegrown talent and players acquired through trade come out pretty far ahead of free agency. In terms of the sheer number of players, there are over 400 in each of the homegrown and trade sections, with around 300 in free agency. As for the impact, it’s hard to argue with the importance of homegrown players when looking at the graph above. Breaking the homegrown section down, we can see how each team has done this season with players they’ve drafted or signed internationally and then developed in their organization:

Read the rest of this entry »

In 2011 and 2012, FanGraphs, borrowing from ESPN, held a Franchise Player Draft. The Hardball Times revived the draft in 2017, and we thought we’d take a crack at it again now. The idea is a simple one: throwing out existing contracts, teams, and other real life sundry, which player would you most want to build a baseball franchise around if you were starting from scratch? These picks were based solely on the players’ abilities as they stand now; those participating got to decide on their own how to value wins now versus wins in the long-term. To maintain a bit of mystery for the No. 1 pick, today we’ll present picks 16-30. Tomorrow, the top half of the draft will be revealed. We hope you enjoy. — Meg Rowley

…

Ben Clemens, Pick 16: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
I was overjoyed to see Soto still available at 16. He was in my personal top 10 — I thought there was no chance he’d fall this far. He’s still only 20, and at this point has two years worth of strong performance in the majors. He might never be a great defender, but he does so much at the plate that I don’t care. Hit for power? He has 34 extra-base hits already this year and a sterling .237 ISO. Control the plate? He walks 15.6% of the time for his career, nearly as often as he strikes out. Hit for average? He has a career .344 BABIP, and projection systems think he’ll stick around .330 for the rest of the year. It’s hard to imagine a more complete offensive player as a 20-year-old, short of Trout’s age-20 season. Maybe he won’t realize ZiPS’ lofty three-year projections, but almost no one is a better bet to be a great hitter five years from now than Soto. I considered Vlad in this spot as well, but they’re almost the same age and Soto has been excellent in the majors for longer, which I value more than Vlad’s prospect pedigree. Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Ottavino has had a strange 2019. Last year, he reinvented his game in a single offseason. This year, he’s mostly sticking with what worked in 2018, and the results have been pretty good. Despite pitching in homer-happy Yankee Stadium, he’s posted a 1.80 ERA (39 ERA-), and his strikeout rate is a gaudy 32.2%. He easily could have been an All-Star, even if his FIP is a less-inspiring, if still good, 3.85. His walk rate, too, has spiked — to 15.8%, near a career high. It’s too early to say whether Ottavino will back up his breakout 2018 or regress closer to his FIP by season’s end.

What it’s not too early to say, however, is that watching Ottavino pitch this year is an absolute joy. His slider, which he throws more than 40% of the time, has always been his calling card, and it’s as fun as ever, taking a great liquid arc across the plate that can make you question physics. His fastball, a hard two-seamer that he uses more like a four-seam fastball, locating it high in the zone, is a delightful offset to the slider. His cutter — well, his cutter isn’t as fun to watch as the other two pitches, but it sits in between them in velocity and movement and helps disguise everything else. What’s so great about Ottavino, though, isn’t just his raw stuff. It’s the way he uses those pitches that is so fun, and this year, he’s using them to get called strikes by the bucketload.

When you picture a 2019 slider in your mind’s eye, you might picture Ottavino’s, or maybe Patrick Corbin’s. Big break, the batter desperately trying to adjust his swing to hit something that’s falling down and away from him, and the catcher blocking a bouncing ball to record a strikeout. Ottavino still has that pitch in his arsenal, of course. Take a look at him going right after noted slider-masher Lourdes Gurriel and coming out on top:

Read the rest of this entry »

Fernando Tatís Jr is arguably the most-exciting young player in the game. He’s certainly gotten off to a rousing start. Through his first 55 games with the San Diego Padres, the 20-year-old shortstop is slashing .327/.393/.620, with 14 home runs, a 162 wRC+, and 13 stolen bases. Twice he’s scored on a sacrifice fly that was caught by the second baseman. Defensively, his range and his arm have both elicited oohs and aahs from what is becoming an increasingly-invigorated Padres fanbase.

The conversation that follows is focused entirely on the young man’s approach to hitting. He’s learned his lessons well — primarily from his father, former big-league infielder Fernando Tatis — but at the same time, his M.O. at the plate is straightforward. Tatis likes to keep things simple, and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. Given the numbers he’s been putting up, why should it?

———

David Laurila: Is hitting simple, or is it complicated?

Fernando Tatis: “It’s complicated if you want it to be. I think if you take it as simple as possible, you can be more consistent every day. People make it complicated when they start doing a lot of stuff — when you start doing a lot of stuff to your mind; when you think you’re doing this, you’re doing that. For me, a big thing is to remember that I’m playing baseball. I’m just a kid playing in a park. Yes, I have to make adjustments sometimes, but as simple as I can be at the plate is way better.”

Laurila: Are you basically hunting fastballs?

Tatis: “I’m always looking fastballs. I don’t want it to sound like hitting is that easy. Don’t get me wrong. Hitting is not easy. But again, as simple as I can make it is way better.”

Laurila: How do you go about recognizing breaking pitches? Is it mostly a matter of reps?

Tatis: “More reps will be better for you, but for me, recognizing breaking balls is … a big part is when you’re looking for his fastball, you forget about everything down. If you see spin up, those are the good ones to hit. The ones down are going to be hard.” Read the rest of this entry »

The pairing was worth the wait: two rookies, both denied well-earned call-ups last year due to service-time shenanigans, not only clubbed their way into the 2019 Home Run Derby at Cleveland’s Progressive Field, but all the way to the finals. In the end, the Mets’ Peter Alonso bested the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who had done nothing less than steal the show by setting Derby records in every round. Alonso’s 23rd home run of the final round, which landed with around 18 seconds left in regulation time, beat Guerrero’s freshly-set record without his even needing to tap into his bonus time.

Between a more aerodynamic ball that is being launched with record frequency, and a decision on the part of officials not to enforce the rule requiring the pitcher to wait until the previous ball had landed (a source of controversy amid Bryce Harper’s 2018 win), Derby records were demolished left and right. And while it lacked the likes of Harper, Mike Trout, Manny Machado, Aaron Judge, and so on, youngest Derby field ever (average age 25.26 years) threw the spotlight on some of the sport’s brightest young talents. Every contestant except one (Carlos Santana) was 27 or younger. Even with a decided lack of star power — just five of the top 20 players in total home runs participated, none of them previous winners — the head-to-head, single-elimination bracket format, with timed four-minute rounds and 30 seconds of bonus time added for hitting two 440-foot homers (as measured by Statcast), kept things entertaining, though the event did wind up running long.

While the 24-year-old Alonso, who has already homered 30 times for the Mets this year, emerged victorious thanks to a trio of walk-off wins, the 20-year-old Guerrero, the youngest participant in Derby history, and the first offspring of a previous winner to participate (dad Vlad won in 2007) was the star of the night. Due in part to his delayed call-up and some early difficulty adjusting to the majors, the game’s consensus top prospect has hit just eight regular season homers (which might be the fewest of a Derby participant — I’m not sure), but on Monday night he showed poise well beyond his years, particularly during the extended exposure he received in an epic semifinal battle with Joc Pederson. The pair not only finished regulation time tied at 29, which matched the single-round record that Guerrero had just set in the quarterfinals, but they remained tied through a one-minute tiebreaker round and the first three-swing “Swing-Off” in Derby history. More on that momentarily.

Read the rest of this entry »