Downs has been a polished, advanced hitter for his age dating way back to high school. He’s not a shortstop for me and, in my opinion, his thicker lower half means his likely future home is as a shift-aided second baseman at maturity. He’s short back to the ball with some pop, his swing is bottom-hand heavy, which leaves him somewhat vulnerable to velo in on his hands, but he’s selective enough to swing at pitches he can damage. Despite the patience and bat control, I think he ends up with closer to average contact ability but fully actualized power production, a well-rounded offensive package that cleanly profiles at second base. His average exit velo was 88 mph last year, and there’s not a lot of room on the body, so that might be all.

Casas was one of the more heavily scouted underclassman high school prospects in recent memory, and stood out while hitting in the heart of the lineup for South Florida-powerhouse American Heritage, various Team USA squads, and at travel showcases and tournaments. Some of that success was probably because he was one of the oldest prospects in the 2019 graduating class, which prompted him to accelerate his schooling in 2017 and reclassify for the 2018 draft. Moving up a year made him age-appropriate for a high schooler in their draft year; at 18.4, he was basically average for a prep player. With that early-career acclaim came a change in the way opposing pitchers approached Casas. They began to pitch around him, and scouts often left his games having seen him swing just once or twice because he walked constantly. Luckily Casas had a long track record of hitting in games, had participated in multiple home run derbies during his amateur summers, and posted gaudy exit velocities during team pre-draft workouts, so clubs knew what his offensive potential was.

He has good hands and a plus arm that helped him pitch into the low-90’s on the mound, but is a well-below average runner with poor lateral mobility. He played third base after signing, though mostly during instructs, as Casas injured his thumb sliding for a ground ball in June, needed surgery, and barely played during the summer. But expectations are that he’ll move across the diamond to first base in 2019 or 2020, where we think he’ll be quite good. Casas’ calling card is his bat and there’s potential for a 60 hit, 70 game power, 80 raw power kind of package. The margin for error for teenage, first base-only types is very small, but we’re also very high on Casas’ bat.

It’s fairly important to view Mata’s performance through an age-appropriate lens. The Red Sox hit the accelerator on his development early (a common occurrence in this system) and sent Mata right to full season ball in 2017 when he was just 18-years old. That gives context to Mata’s 2018 struggles; he couldn’t throw strikes (he had a 17% walk rate), his stuff was up and down throughout the year, and he dealt with a back injury. Several of those things improved in 2019. More purposeful deployment of a robust, four-pitch mix dropped Mata’s walk rate to an acceptable 9%, and his stuff was more consistent even though he missed a month with a shoulder strain. And that stuff? A sinker up to 99 (it won’t miss bats, but it’s tough to square up), a two-plane breaking ball that he’ll throw for strike one or as a putaway pitch, a changeup with movement that mirrors the sinker, and a cutter/slider that Mata is still in the early stages of harnessing.

Because the fastball is more of a sinker, secondary execution and command will be necessary for him to miss as many bats as possible, and there are forces opposing one another when it comes to projecting his command. On the one hand, he’s only 20 and has huge stuff. On the other, he’s at best a fringe athlete, and has a relieverish delivery. This could break in a number of different ways, but unless Mata keeps getting hurt or his control totally unravels like it did two seasons ago, he’s going to be a core part of a big league staff. For now, we expect that to be in a 120ish inning capacity.

If we agree that strikeout rates in excess of 33% are a hinderance sufficient to at least limit playing time, if not a roster spot altogether, looking back at how big leaguers hit in the minors can help us sift through current prospects. Here is the list of qualified 2019 big league hitters with the highest strikeout rates in the majors (all between 27% and 32%), along with their strikeout rates at Double-A: Rougie Odor (16%), Domingo Santana (29%), Ryan McMahon (27%), Eugenio Suarez (20%), Franmil Reyes (23%), Luke Voit (15%), Javy Baez (28%), Yoan Moncada (30%), Jackie Bradley (18%), Khris Davis (19%). Most of these players saw a dramatic increase in strikeouts once they got to the big leagues. Those with sky-high Double-A strikeout rates who have gone on to become star big leaguers are all physical freaks, super-human talents; you can include Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo, who were hurt in 2019 and did not qualify for the list, among them.

Dalbec, whose struggles with whiffs date back to his days in college, struck out 28% of the time at Double-A. That is a strong indication he will probably strike out a ton, probably too much to be an everyday player. But he does have thunderous, all-fields power and he’s athletic enough to handle third base despite his considerable size. He’s also shown improved patience at the plate. We think all of this will combine to create a viable role player or low-end regular at third base, but we acknowledge there’s risk that the hit tool bottoms out.

It’s fairly common for a prospect’s trade value to be affected by something circumstantial, but Song’s situation is unique. He was clearly a first round talent ahead of last year’s draft, but it was unclear where he’d be picked because of his military commitment. Currently, service academy policy states Song must complete two years of Naval service. The Trump administration repealed an Obama-era rule that allowed athletes to petition for an exemption in order to pursue pro sports or some other activity that might bolster recruitment or the image of the military in general. Whether this rule is reinstated via executive action will have a significant impact on Song’s future. He’ll either enter pro ball full-time soon, and perhaps move quickly thanks to the quality of his stuff, or he’ll be away from baseball for two years and return when he’s nearly 25.

Song works fast and throws hard. He was up to 99 during Team USA’s Premier12 scrimmages in Arizona, his slider is plus, and he will mix in the occasional knee-buckling rainbow curveball. He at least profiles in a high-leverage relief role given the current composition of his stuff and control, and perhaps more than that if he’s put into the development pipeline quickly. If not, we can’t anticipate what’ll happen to his stuff because of the layoff. It’s tough to wrangle just how that impacts Song’s standing as a prospect even if it doesn’t impact his talent as currently constituted.

Jimenez is a unique prospect, and the one we had the most trouble nailing down throughout this process. He is a true 80 runner and has a running back build at a physical 5-foot-11, but has little power to his game due to a very simple, opposite-field, slap-oriented approach, especially from the left side. While both swings are concerning for several reasons (bat path, balance, varied lower half use), there is unmistakable feel for contact and impressive hand-eye coordination. Due to the approach and swing, Jimenez’s exit velos are low enough to be in a sort of danger zone, and he’s not physically projectable. Any hope for impact contact has to come from projection on the swing itself, and Jimenez shows more pop in BP and he hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long, so it’s possible.

We don’t want to overthink this one, and even though the swing needs polish, this is a plus-plus athlete with what the org thinks is plus-plus makeup, elite speed, and impact defense and arm strength. On top of all this, Jimenez led the college-heavy New York-Penn League in hitting as a 19 year-old primarily hitting left-handed, something he started doing just two years ago in instructional league. He’s also the type of player who we don’t mind projecting on a bit as a premium athlete with premium makeup and adjustability, since he’s more likely to handle failure and change in pro ball better than most.

Teams were divided on Lugo before the draft, perhaps because he had a slow start to his spring and was a little tougher to see than the typical prospect in the Southeast — scouts had to fly to Puerto Rico the day before and could only get in one game a day while they were there, whereas they could easily have seen five to six quality games if they hung around major metro areas for the same period. As such, if higher ups got a bad look at Lugo early, they likely didn’t go back in. That seems to be what happened here, and explains why Lugo fell past where we anticipated given his skillset and physical projection.

Lugo isn’t especially toolsy, but we think he’s likely to stick at short and develop something close to average offensive tools, which gives him a shot to be an everyday player.

Cannon’s amateur stock was founded on two years of elite statistical performance, including a .390/.480/.640 line as a junior and more walks than strikeouts during the course of his career. He has a surprising amount of power, both for a hitter who played half his games at cavernous Hi Corbett Field in Tucson, and one who has such a conservative-looking swing that lacks explosive involvement of the lower half.

Cannon can’t play shortstop, but has a shot to play second or third (some scouts have him in left field). A move will make it more important for the power to play in pro ball, which may require a relatively simple swing change. That didn’t happen immediately after Cannon signed, but it doesn’t have to unless poor performance makes it necessary.

Houck became famous pretty early in his college career because he was the ace of Team USA as an underclassman, slinging in a sinkering 96 and a plus slider. Scouts who weren’t as enthusiastic about his changeup, or arm slot, or the length of his arm action, or the way his stuff would flatten out and his command would back up later in starts thought he was surely a reliever. The Red Sox had Houck change his delivery and arm action for the first half-dozen or so starts in 2018, focusing on a more traditional four-seam fastball approach. It didn’t work, and Boston let him go back to what he had been doing later in the year; his dominant final two months of 2018 reflect his comfort with this approach.

We think Houck’s likely outcome is as a multi-inning power reliever who dominates righties with strikeouts and groundballs, though some see a starter in the mold of Justin Masterson. He can sink it, cut it, his slider is death to righties, and he’ll bully lefties with the fastball enough to get by, just not if they get multiple looks at him.

The trajectory of Duran’s rise is unique. During collegiate scrimmages in the fall of 2017, scouts saw a big, athletic second baseman who was just okay defensively, had an all-fields line drive approach without much pop, and plus to plus-plus speed. Duran had a fine junior spring, but hit for almost no power (which perhaps should be expected in a pitcher-friendly home park like Blair Field in Long Beach), and slipped to the seventh round as a nearly-22-year-old with a modest statistical track record.

After signing, the Red Sox had Duran change his swing a bit in BP to see if they could tap into something more, and he started raking at Low-A. Duran had 13 extra base hits in 253 PA in 2018 for Long Beach State; across two pro levels, he had 28 extra base hits in 302 PA, including 11 triples. Once we got a look at Duran up against elite peers at the Futures Game, and for an extended stretch of the Fall League, it became clear he has poor outfield instincts and likely won’t have the in-game pop he showed early in the year. He can fly and he has relevant contact skills, but no clear position and not enough power to overcome that. His outfield defense has to improve, and even then he’s likely a fourth outfielder or low-end regular.

A heavily-used college reliever, Ward was moved to the rotation in pro ball, added a cutter, and raced to Hi-A in his first full season. He may still end up as a reliever, but his athleticism and repertoire depth make it likely to be in a multi-inning role if he can’t be a fourth or fifth starter.

It’s pronounced “bey-o” like mayo, not “bell-o” like jello, so we can’t require that you read this blurb with Tracy Morgan’s voice in your head. Bello spent 2018 as a 19-year-old in the DSL, then was skipped over two levels and sent right to full-season ball last year. He ended up throwing nearly twice as many innings as he had the year before, but rather than show fatigue toward the end of the season, Bello actually had his better starts during the second half of the summer. During those he’s bump 98, miss both right- and left-handed bats with his changeup, and flash an occasionally nasty slider.

The movement profile on Bello’s fastball is mediocre, but he’s a loose, semi-projectable 20-year-old so more velo might be coming to offset the lack of action. Realistically, this is a backend starter, but there’s more variance because of the chance of a velo uptick.

Liu was one of the surprise prospects to emerge from this year’s J2 class, receiving the Red Sox’s second-highest bonus of this year’s crop ($750,000) after the team saw a handful of shorter relief outings before this fall’s Premier12 tournament. He signed as a 20-year-old out of college in Taiwan; most top Taiwanese talents sign at age 18 out of high school. The Red Sox were on Liu at that age as an infielder, but he took a step forward as a reliever recently, hitting anywhere from 98 to 101 mph depending on whose radar gun you were looking at.

Liu is small but very athletic. His slider is above average to plus pretty consistently, while his splitter flashes similarly. He also mixed in a curveball as a fourth pitch. Already 20, and with almost zero track record on the mound other than a handful of innings, Liu is obviously risky but might also just be scratching the surface of something. Boston felt better about his makeup than many teams could have due to their history with him as an infielder, and because they had first-hand locker room dope from Premier12 teammate, and Red Sox infielder, Tzu-Wei Lin. Liu will likely see action in extended spring training and Low-A in 2020.

It was somewhat important for Decker to come out of the gate fast as a pro because of industry concern over the leap Northeast high school hitters need to make, and Decker was old for his high school class. A wrist injury meant he sat for most of his first pro summer when he would have first been able to get his feet wet against pro pitching, and the leap to the Penn League the next summer proved to be too much; he struck out 30% of the time for Lowell. We’re still on the power, lift in the swing, size, speed underway, and physicality, but Decker needs to hit because he’s a corner-only guy, and he hasn’t done that yet.

As early as his freshman year of high school, Groome was pegged by those who scouted him as a potential high first-round pick. He was graceful, projectable, and already had average big league stuff almost two years before he was even eligible to be drafted. That stuff just kept improving, peaking the summer before his draft year when Groome would work 92-96 mph in short stints with an easy, plus curveball while folding in an average to above changeup, doing so with a big, athletic frame and starter’s delivery, all of which led to him being mentioned as a possible No. 1 overall pick. But a myriad of concerns unrelated to Groome’s talent dogged him more than most prep prospects, most of them stemming from an unstable living situation that involved drugs and guns, for which his father was later arrested. That, combined with a quickly thickening frame and issues with his commitment to Vanderbilt, contributed to his fall out of the top 10 picks of the 2016 draft.

Since signing, Groome hasn’t been on the mound much, making just 20 total pro starts due to a back injury and, eventually, Tommy John surgery. He came back from TJ late last August and got four innings of work before instructional league, where he got another eight to 10 frames, working 93-95 two innings at a time. Groome is Rule 5 eligible next winter and he’s never thrown more than 55 innings in any of his four pro seasons. Those two things create some pressure and make it likely that the Red Sox either really need to push him next year, creating more risk that he’ll get hurt yet again, or that he’ll just be bullpen’d to give him a better shot at contributing in 2021. Does he arguably have more upside than all but a handful of others in this org? Sure, but circumstances impacting his development make it highly unlikely he gets there.

An athletic, multi-positional player who spent his early college career at shortstop, Wong now sees time behind the plate, as he did throughout most of college, and at second and third base. Like most of the hitters who grew up in the Dodgers org, he hits the ball in the air a lot and strikes out at a concerning rate. That, along with a few defensive flaws that may still be corrected with time, especially as he learns to handle upper-level stuff in the dirt, probably limits Wong to a unique kind of utility role or a backup catcher and infielder role similar to Austin Barnes‘, which is a bit better than just a flat 40 FV prospect.

Flores was the star of last fall’s instructional league in Florida and looked like a potential everyday player in the Willy Adames mold. He skipped the GCL last year and flopped in the Penn League, his body backed up a little bit, and he generally looked less explosive and twitchy. We shaded his FV down a half grade, and consider it more of a developmental bump than the start of a trend right now.

Bonaci is the big emerging sleeper on this year’s list. He signed for $290,000 in the 2018 J2 class but has taken a significant step forward since then; team asked the Red Sox for him at the 2019 deadline, as many are covering the DSL with pro scouts now. Bonaci isn’t huge at 5-foot-10 but has some raw power from both sides, including surprisingly high in-game exit velos. He figures to stick at shortstop because of premium arm strength and suitable lateral range. Boston didn’t do traditional instructs during the fall, so Bonaci has still largely only been seen by scouts in the DR, making him a high-priority extended spring training evaluation in 2020.

This is a traditional right field profile, with big power, and a big frame. But Gonzalez also has advanced acumen as a hitter, more than the rest of the deep DSL/GCL group, so he’s currently at the head of that class. He has a long-term shot to be a regular.

Howlett was a known prospect in Florida for years and was on a trajectory to go in the top five rounds after a strong start to his spring, but he finished poorly, including a brutal NHSI tournament where all 30 teams had multiple scouts on hand. He swung and missed a ton in front of dozens of high level evaluators, when many had pegged him as the sleeper prospect to break out at the event. The Red Sox found out after signing him that he had an issue with his contacts, giving him particular trouble in day games (which all of the games at NHSI were), and got him squared away before his pro career began.

Howlett hit six homers in 43 pro games with a manageable strikeout rate that surprised many amateur scouts who had discounted his hitting ability earlier that year. The bird’s eye view of Howlett is that he’s a stiff righty bat with power, but he’s short to the ball and has a little better feel to hit than most strength-driven mashers.

Chatham’s rather lengthy injury history becomes less problematic when you accept that his likely future role is of a part-time, bench variety. He’s a bunch of 45s on offense, he plays a fine shortstop, and last season he started seeing more time at other positions, mostly second base. He played some left field and third base out of necessity in the fall because some of his teammates went home early. He has an outside shot to be Boston’s starting second baseman next year, but we have him projected as a utility man long-term.

This is the only draft-and-stash guy selected in this year’s Rule 5. If Arauz sticks on Boston’s roster it’ll be because he plays a capable middle infield utility role during his first year with the org. The profile for such a role would seem to be here. Arauz’s arm, hands, and actions are all good enough for shortstop, he’s a switch-hitter with good feel for contact, he just lacks typical big league strength and physicality right now. If the bat isn’t getting knocked out of his hands in big league spring training, maybe he’ll stick, but to me the probability is low here.

Murphy is a lefty with a changeup up to 96, which might be enough to get him to the big leagues in some capacity. San Diego’s track record of developing pitching isn’t great (a lot of high profile high schoolers have gone there and gotten worse lately), so maybe pro development will unlock something more than the relief projection we currently have on him.

Lopez was Boston’s top 2018 July 2 signee. He’s well-rounded — he lacks a plus tool at the moment — but has the frame to grow into a couple, and the hit tool might get there as well. Right now, his chief skills are his baserunning, defensive instincts, and feel for the strike zone. This is a high probability teenager, if there is such a thing; Lopez’s ceiling will be dictated by how much he hits.

Wilson has some carrying tools. He has grown into power, his swing creates natural lift, which enables it to play in games, and he has plus straightline speed. His feel for contact is very limited, so he exists in that Keon Broxton zone, where clear big league tools often get squeezed off rosters by someone with similar skills who hits left-handed, or boasts some other marginal improvement.

Chacon signed for $900,000 as the top bonus in Boston’s J2 class this summer. He’s a plus runner and center fielder for now, but there’s some expectation that he’ll slide over to right field as he fills out, as his arm is soildly average and may get a bit better. Chacon is a hit-first prospect at this point but there’s projection and some present raw power, so he should be able to profile as an everyday type if he continues developing.

A Day Three pick in 2018, Politi pitched well enough out of the bullpen last year that the Sox stretched him out late in the season and gave him a handful of starts. During that stretch he struck out 61 in 47 innings. Politi is deceptive, his fastball has ride at the top of the zone, and he commands his slider and will flash an occasionally good changeup. It’s an interesting package with the arrow pointing up.

We tabbed Feltman as the player Most Likely to Be First to the Majors from the 2018 draft class. He spent his entire first full pro season at Double-A missing bats but also missing locations — a lot — and his velocity was down a little bit. The fastball still has bat-missing traits, but unless there’s a rebound, Feltman is more likely to be a middle reliever than a late-inning arm.

Zeferjahn emerged as a Kansas power prep righty in a class with Riley Pint and Joey Wentz, but wasn’t consistent enough in the spring to have his price met. He was mostly the same at Kansas and went in the third round last summer as a power arm with a standout fastball and above average breaker. His delivery and command are still a work in progress, and one Red Sox source called him a ball of clay, with seventh or eighth inning reliever the most likely outcome.

Thick but athletic, as long as Marcano keeps his body in check he should remain agile enough to catch and perhaps be quite good back there. Offensively, his present skills indicate future viability, but not impact. He’s on the long-term radar.

For a long time this system has been lousy with undersized, relatively unprojectable pitchability types, and Ramirez is the strike-thrower du jour. He had a very successful 13-start stretch in the New York-Penn League — 61 innings, 63 punch outs, 16 walks — working off of three pitches. He has a vertical arm slot and hand position that create backspin that will let his fastball play atop the strike zone, though he doesn’t work up there as often as he could. His slider is average but has effective, vertical movement, and he has fairly advanced arm-side changeup feel.

An average athlete with a smaller frame, there’s no overt physical projection that allows us to get excited about Ramirez growing into a monster fastball, so instead we think he’s a developmental fifth starter.

Had Feliz been born in the States, he’d probably be playing left tackle on Friday nights. Still relatively crude as a hitter (and we’re always skeptical of physically mature hitters performing in the DSL), Feliz is a leviathan with plus-plus raw power. He’ll likely be limited to left field or first base, especially if he somehow gets bigger, which, combined with relatively raw pitch recognition, makes him a prospect of extreme risk. Ordinarily at this stage, this is just a 35 FV guy for us, but this dude’s size and power at his age is rare, in the Luken Baker/Josh Naylor area.

Rodriguez carved up the GCL — 58 strikeouts, 9 walks, 47 innings — by virtue of both advanced stuff (he already has a quality changeup and curveball) and pitchability. He is sleight of build and doesn’t throw very hard, so there’s not big fastball projection here, but Rodriguez does spin his heater much more than is usual for someone who only throws in the low-90s, so it might be an impact pitch even if he only ends up with average velo. He’s a candidate to begin 2020 in full season ball based on how Boston handles polished teenage arms.

After four fruitless pro seasons as an outfielder, Aybar moved to the mound in 2018. At times, he is dominant — one source spoke of seeing him strike out four of the six hitters he faced in an outing while breaking the bats of the other two — but he’s not consistent enough to be relied on in a big league bullpen right now. The Red Sox put him on the 40-man, so how he develops during the early part of next year is important. The body, athleticism, arm strength (94-97, up to 100), and fledgling feel for spin are exciting.

This is a pure athletic/frame projection prospect who has a well-rounded game, including some current feel to hit. Vaughn runs well enough to play center field for now, though his frame is such that we anticipate an eventual move to right.

Since signing in July, Perales has added 10 pounds of muscle and several ticks to his fastball. He’s now up to 95 and has nascent curveball feel, enough that his early developmental focus is on finding a changeup grip. Perales’ frame lacks overt projection, so the upside is perhaps limited by that, but a bunch of velo has already come on.

If you google “Brendan Rodgers,” the first several results are for Leicester City’s soccer coach, who has been managing Premier League teams since 2008. Baseball’s Brendan Rodgers has been known to scouts for about that long, and has been hitting the entire time. Even as an underclassman, Rodgers was often the best player on the field at well-attended showcase events; when he was a high school junior, scouts thought that if you were to drop him in the draft a year early, he’d still go somewhere in the first round. By his pre-draft summer, Rodgers clearly had the best hit and power combination among his peers, and looked likely to stay on the middle infield. He was the early favorite to go first overall in 2015 until Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, and Andrew Benintendi took a leap the following spring, allowing the Rockies to get him third overall.

One axiom to which we try to adhere is “good hitters hit all the time” and that is indeed what Rodgers has done for the last eight years. He’s a career .293/.348/.491 hitter in the minors, and while most of Colorado’s affiliates play in hitter-friendly parks — this fact has masked some of Rodgers’ mediocre pitch recognition — we anticipate he’ll continue to be a plus hitter in the big leagues. His initial major league trial — a rough 25-game jaunt in the early summer — was not especially encouraging. Rodgers hit .224, swung and missed twice as often as he had in Triple-A (8% swinging strike rate in the minors, 15% in the majors), and generally appeared overwhelmed. But an 80 plate appearance sample doesn’t usurp Rodgers’ lengthy track record of hitting. In November, Rodgers told the Denver Post that he had been dealing with “nagging” shoulder issues since 2018 before deciding to have labrum surgery in June of 2019. As of mid-November, he had yet to begin throwing and hitting. Because he’s only a fringe runner and athlete, Rodgers’ conditioning during rehab is pretty important. A heavy, lumbering Rodgers who needs to play third base is swimming upstream against a 105 wRC+ at the position, while a Rodgers capable of playing second has a 94 wRC+ bar to clear.

Whether Rolison’s 2019 ascent was the result of real improvement or simply washed away our recency bias is immaterial. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season before his year descended into chaos. He became wild and predictable, and yes, you read that right. Rolison couldn’t throw strikes with his fastball and leaned heavily on his curveball, which opposing hitters anticipated and crushed. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

But 2019 was different. Rolison not only threw a greater percentage of strikes (65%) but he located his four-seam fastball where it plays best — at the top of the zone. After holding his college velo early in the year, it dipped late in the season but still competes for swings and misses because of its ride. There’s also more coherent pitch usage and a better pitch mix now; Rolison has a two-seamer, threw more changeups last year, and was just generally more mechanically consistent. He still throws across his body a bit and it can be hard for him to locate his breaking ball to his glove side, but the raw material for a lefty with three above-average pitches and starter control/command is clearly here and coming fast, so this is a back of the 50 FV tier prospect.

A 2019 swing change — what was an open stance with a leg kick has now been closed off and features none — awakened some of the big, dormant raw power that made Vilade such an enticing amateur prospect. He simply could not time his previous cut and was late on many pitches, pushing them the other way or into the ground. The tweak brought his groundball rate closer to average (50% previously, down to 42% in 2019) and more than doubled his home run output from the prior year.

It’s necessary progress for a player who began a long-anticipated fall down the defensive spectrum, and will likely continue to do so. Vilade began seeing time at third base in 2019, and was taking reps in the outfield during the Rockies’ fall workouts. He looked noticeably bigger and stronger on the Salt River backfields than he did during the summer, and we now anticipate Vilade will branch out and play both outfield and infield corners, which makes sense considering how entrenched Nolan Arenado is at third base. Is the tumble troubling? Somewhat, but it’s counterbalanced by versatility, and it’s encouraging that Vilade has now shown an ability to make relevant swing adjustments to get to his power. This is a rather magmatic prospect currently transitioning in several ways, but they’re generally positive.

Toglia had a poor Cape statline and then came out of the gate very slowly during his junior year. He was hitting .207 when PAC-12 play began and his draft stock had taken a plunge but for whatever reason, he started raking during conference play. By the end of the year, he was hitting .315 and had reached base in 29 straight games. Toglia has a rare combination of traits and skills. He’s a switch-hitting first baseman with power who is also a plus defender, which puts him in a small, 21st century team picture with Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, and Carlos Santana. That’s an intriguing group. We think teams hopped off of Toglia too quickly because of bad early-season looks and that he might be poised for a breakout 2020.

Hilliard was a transient, two-way junior college player who hopped around to a pair of JUCOs before settling at Wichita State as a junior. He was raw, and the relative lack of track record likely contributed to him lasting until the 15th round of his junior season, but for a player with this much physical ability to fall that far is a failure on the part of the amateur side of the industry.

Hilliard is a big, athletic thumper with a rare power/speed combination. He’s flourished in his four years as a full-time hitter, slashing .277/.350/.480 in the minors before reaching the big leagues late last summer. As one might expect for such an under-baked athlete who a) barely played as a junior college freshman and b) also pitched the next two years, Hilliard lacks defensive instincts and feel to hit. His ability to identify pitches he can drive is impressive in context, but well-executed pitches can get him out. Hilliard’s big, gallivanting strides make him a plus runner underway, but his mediocre reads on balls in center detract from his range. It’s still above-average in a corner, closer to fringe in center field. It’s kind of a tweener defensive profile except with way more raw power than is usual for that sort, so Hilliard projects to be a strong big league role player, likely the larger half of a platoon in any of the three outfield positions.

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, and everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range where teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. His swing is kind of grooved, but Vavra is a pitch selection savant, adept at picking out pitches he can drive until he has to expand with two strikes. We think he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play every day at shortstop, but we think Vavra is much more likely to end up at second base, where his range could make him an above-average defender. There’s not enough power for an impact regular here, but the athleticism and feel for contact should make Vavra either a low-end regular on the middle infield or a valuable, multi-positional role player.

From a hands and actions standpoint, Welker is actually fine at third base. It’s his lateral quickness that’s an issue, and why he’s generally considered a first base prospect. But same as we’ve seen Travis Shaw and Max Muncy play elsewhere, it stands to reason someone out there thinks Welker can stay at third, or handle duties around the second base bag in certain situations. Those are the teams most likely to think Welker can play something resembling an everyday role, because while he has excellent feel to hit, he lacks the raw power typical of first base.

In the mold of Sheldon Neuse or J.D. Davis, Schunk was a burly, two-way college prospect with power and arm strength. After two years of struggling to get to his raw power in games (he hit just four homers combined his freshman and sophomore seasons), Schunk had a breakout junior year and clubbed 15 dingers. We were hoping he’d start pulling and lifting the ball more and he did, both at Georgia and during his first pro summer. He’s an athletic gamer who’s a good defender at third, though because of the arm strength there was some speculative projecting while Schunk was an amateur that he might catch. The power production needs to keep coming, but Schunk has a shot to be a regular.

Doyle was tough to learn about before the 2019 draft because while he became difficult to hide in the truest sense, nobody wanted to tip their hand as to where he was on their board, as small school players are placed with quite a bit of variability. The physical tools were obvious and pretty similar to what Dodgers prospect D.J. Peters looked like coming out of junior college. Doyle is built like an old school, run-stopping safety at a physical 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He runs well, has power, and after the draft, against the best pitching he ever faced in his life, Doyle mashed. His ball/strike recognition and ability to spoil pitchers’ pitches were much better than we would have anticipated considering how few quality arms he had seen to that point. He has everyday physical ability and isn’t as raw as we thought he’d be.

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Pitchers who walk guys at even a 10% or worse clip face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint walked more than 30% of the hitters he faced last year, and had more wild pitches than innings. Such strike-throwing incompetence forced a move to the bullpen, which siphoned away reps, and injuries (oblique, forearm, shoulder) over the last two years have exacerbated this issue. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but we’re still on Pint because his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. The chances that he ends up as part of a rotation in any capacity have shrunk considerably, but there’s still a fair shot that he becomes a high-leverage reliever.

Amador has already gotten stronger and twitchier than he appeared to be on the amateur circuit, and he flashed some in-game power in last summer’s Tricky League. For a switch-hitter this young, Amador already has fairly advanced feel to hit in games, even if the swings aren’t always pretty. He’s medium-framed and likely to grow into some more power, but probably not a ton. He’s graceful and athletic enough that we also consider him likely to stay on the middle infield, though we’re not sure if it’ll be at second base or shortstop. There’s everyday ceiling here, but of course, teenagers are quite volatile.

We’ve learned the hard way that graceful deliveries do not always foreshadow improvement to control and command, so we’re not totally sold that Olivarez will develop cogent strike-throwing ability even though his mechanics are silky smooth. He does have tremendous stuff for his age, already sitting in the mid-90s early during his starts and flashing a plus curveball. There’s arguably too much velocity separation between the heater and curveball for the latter to be effective right now, but it has bat-missing depth and shape. Similar to his presently poor feel for location, Olivarez lacks changeup feel. Many things — holding the velo deep into games, mechanical consistency, a sharper curveball, a much better changeup — need to progress for Olivarez to attain what appears to be massive potential when you see his arm strength, frame, and proclivity for spin.

We don’t have many 27-year-olds on prospect lists period, let alone ones above the 40 FV tier. But Goudeau’s 2019 breakout, during which he posted a 30% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate at Double-A and allowed just four baserunners during the AFL season, was remarkable and, as we’ve learned more about the components of pitching, seems real. Goudeau epitomizes fastball spin efficiency, creating near perfect backspin and seam uniformity on his heater, giving it bat-missing carry at the top of the strike zone. His plus curveball is almost indistinguishable from the fastball for most of its flight. Those two pitches together would suffice to make Goudeau an effective middle reliever, but if he retains this abrupt, extreme strike-throwing ability, then perhaps he can go multiple innings. It’s rare for four-seam/curveball guys to succeed in Denver, though.

All of the teenage hitters who began 2019 in Extended Spring Training before moving on to the Pioneer League get compared to one another by scouts, and Carreras is universally considered to have the greatest upside because he has the most realistic chance to grow into impact power. His swing has leverage and real bat speed already, and his wiry frame portends more, and though his bat path and stride are both kind of a mess, Carreras’ hand-eye coordination and bat control enabled him to succeed against mostly college-level pitching last year at age 19. He’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who will probably only fit at third base once he’s done filling out. Because so much of the offensive competency is still messy, this is a high risk prospect, but unquestionably one of the more exciting talents in the system.

The list of current first baseman with premium contact skills but middling game power is full of players hovering around replacement level. Overripe Albert Pujols and Daniel Murphy, last year’s Joey Votto. This seems to be Nevin’s fate. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. He tracks pitches beautifully and can make quality contact with pitches all over the zone, but it’s very tough for a righty-hitting first baseman without big power to profile. Nevin’s reps at third base have dwindled, and he played a few games in left field last summer. He’s on the 40-man and looks like a corner bench bat.

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record (there has never been a major-league hitter from New Hampshire) because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball, both because he’s not hitting the ball as hard as we anticipated and because he isn’t lifting it. Were Lavigne as physically projectable as his age suggests, this would be less worrisome, but he’s a broad-shouldered, imposing presence, so the lack of present thump is somewhat troubling. We’re not out on him yet (he’s too young), but first base-only prospects need to mash and that hasn’t happened here yet.

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever pick in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised, with a mid-90s fastball and plus slider. He probably should have been pushed to Double-A at some point last season but the Rockies have taken things slow. He has the stuff to reach Denver sometime next year, but he doesn’t have to be on the 40-man until next winter, so perhaps 2021 is more likely. He has a shot to be a set-up type.

It was yet another year of inconsistency and injury for Max Scherzer’s mechanical doppelgänger, Ryan Castellani, who was shelved for much of the summer due to a surgery that cleaned up bone chips in his elbow. Upon returning for the Fall League, Castellani was sitting 90-93 with his usual tailing action while flashing above-average secondary stuff. While he has the stuff to start, he seems much more likely to end up in the bullpen now that he’s on the 40-man, but can’t stay healthy or throw strikes. We expect a quick hook if that’s not remedied early next year.

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. For now those skills manifest as modest, all-fields line drive contact, and Diaz is likely a hit-only offensive player in the long run. He’s seen action all over the infield but we have him projected to second base, where he has a fair chance to profile because of the bat. It’s more likely he ends up in a utility role.

Kauffmann is a one-seam sinker/changeup righty with a pretty firm, inconsistent mid-80s slider. A refined slider gives him a good shot to pitch in the back of a rotation. He was used heavily by Michigan during their deep 2019 postseason run, so he didn’t pitch in pro ball last summer.

Wallace has a starter’s mix — mid-90s heat with tail, a changeup with mirroring movement, a sweeping slider — but his arm action is long and low, so he likely projects in relief. There’s clear industry appetite for varied mechanical looks, and Wallace provides one.

Santos’ fastball velocity range is rather vast, but when he was coming out of the bullpen during Fall League, he was sitting 94-97 for entire outings. He doesn’t have a bat-missing secondary; rather he has a deep well of average pitches from which to draw. Whether he’s a No. 5/6 starter type or his repertoire gets pared down to what Colorado thinks gives him the best chance of missing bats out of the bullpen, we think Santos is clearly a rosterable arm of some kind.

Tovar is a complete defensive player, both instinctive and fundamentally sound, as well as flashy and acrobatic. He’s already ditched switch-hitting and is severely lacking in strength at the plate, which needs to improve dramatically if he’s going to be a big leaguer at all, let alone some kind of regular. There’s risk that he only develops into a Dixon Machado type of player, but he has a real carrying tool in the defense.

A prep projection case who finally had the velo show up during his draft spring, Ethridge was working 92-95 with heavy sink last year, his first as a starter since high school. Like Castellani, Ethridge’s delivery is a little Scherzer-y, and his arm slot helps create impact, tailing movement on his changeup. He’s on the fifth starter/reliever line due to stuff quality, not control/command.

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects there long term. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. He lives in the mid-90s with tail as a starter and has a diving changeup that we think will miss big league bats. The slider has big sweeping action but is more easily identifiable out of his hand.

Bowden has rare lefty velo and we’ve seen a plus changeup from him in the past, but reports on the cambio weren’t as strong this year. He still projects in middle relief.

Toss out Koss’ Pioneer League stat line, as the league’s hitting environment makes that kind of analysis wholly unreliable. Visual evaluation of Koss’ skills as a hitter and serviceable infield defense still merit inclusion on the list. At this point, he projects as a hit-first infielder. We’d like Colorado to push him and stress test the bat, but that’s not their org’s style.

Eusebio was flashing three above-average pitches in 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. Due to injury, he’s never thrown more than 72 innings in a single season, and that was back in 2015. Now 23, Eusebio is officially behind, but his stuff was only down a bit beneath it’s usual level when he pitched late last summer, so there’s still a shot this guy breaks out and gets pushed quickly, especially if he just gets ‘penned.

We like twitchy, athletic, catch-and-throw backstops with contact skills, and Palma has those qualities. He is not very physical and the quality of his contact, even though he makes a lot of it, is troubling; his ceiling might just be a backup because of it.

Tyler has had injury issues, both forearm and shoulder, dating back to college, and he’s now a 24-year-old who has only thrown 83 pro innings. At his best, Tyler will show you 96-98 with a plus changeup, but last year he was more 91-94. He needs to show some bounce back early in 2020.

Ramos has Quad-A hitter written all over him and his Fall League trial and winter ball performance haven’t helped. But he has gigantic raw power, enough that he’s a cut above our honorable mention tier.