One of the jokes floating around the winter meetings this week in Las Vegas has been that activity has been low because Jerry Dipoto has been sick. As it turns out, the Mariners went so far as to take Dipoto to a local hospital for observation. That means the Mariners have understandably been operating at less than 100%. But that still didn’t preclude a meetings-closing three-way swap, which Dipoto at least partially engineered from his hospital bed. It is only ever so barely a three-way trade, as opposed to being two separate trades, but allow me to put this together for you.
As noted, this is almost just two independent trades, both involving the Indians. The only thing that really links them together is the $5 million the Rays are paying, which is ending up with the Mariners. This is half a bad-contract swap, and half an interesting-young-player swap. But since it’s all pushed together as one, we can look at this on a team-by-team basis. Might as well start with the Mariners.
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2017 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
A savant in the batter’s box, Manny Ramirez could be an idiot just about everywhere else — sometimes amusingly, sometimes much less so. The Dominican-born slugger, who grew up in the Washington Heights neighborhood of upper Manhattan, stands as one of the greatest hitters of all time, a power-hitting righthanded slugger who spent the better part of his 19 seasons (1993–2011) terrorizing pitchers. A 12-time All-Star, Ramirez bashed 555 home runs and helped the Indians and the Red Sox reach two World Series apiece, adding a record 29 postseason homers along the way. He was the World Series MVP for Boston in 2004, when the club won its first championship in 86 years.
For all of his prowess with the bat, Ramirez’s lapses — Manny Being Manny — both on and off the field are legendary. There was the time in 1997 that he “stole” first base, returning to the bag after a successful steal of second because he thought Jim Thome had fouled off a pitch… the time in 2004 that he inexplicably cut off centerfielder Johnny Damon’s relay throw from about 30 feet away, leading to an inside-the-park home run… the time in 2005 when he disappeared mid-inning to relieve himself inside Fenway Park’s Green Monster… the time in 2008 that he high-fived a fan in mid-play between catching a fly ball and doubling a runner off first… and so much more.
Beneath those often comic lapses was an intense work ethic, apparent as far back as his high school days, that allowed Ramirez’s talent to flourish. But there was also a darker side, one that, particularly after he left the Indians, went beyond the litany of late arrivals to spring training, questionable absences due to injury (particularly for the All-Star Game), and near-annual trade requests. Most notably, there was his shoving match with 64-year-old Red Sox traveling secretary Jack McCormick in 2008, which prefigured Ramirez’s trade to the Dodgers that summer, and a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence/battery in 2011 after his wife told an emergency operator that her husband had slapped her face, causing her to hit her head against the headboard of the bed. (That domestic violence charge was later dropped after his wife refused to testify.) Interspersed with those two incidents were a pair of suspensions for performance-enhancing drug use, the second of which ran him out of the majors.
For all of the handwringing about PED-tinged candidates on the Hall of Fame ballot over the past decade, Ramirez is the first star with actual suspensions on his record to gain eligibility since Rafael Palmeiro in 2011. Like Palmeiro, Ramirez has numbers that would otherwise make his enshrinement a lock. In his 2017 ballot debut, he received 23.8% — a higher share than Mark McGwire or Sammy Sosa, players who were never suspended — from an electorate that appeared to be in the midst of softening its hardline stance against PED users, but dipped to 22.0% in 2018. He won’t get into Cooperstown anytime soon, but he won’t fall off the ballot anytime soon, either.
It’s not a secret that Cleveland, expected to coast to another division title in 2019, has been shopping its top starters in an attempt to get back multiple players who will help them down the line. Corey Kluber has a great reputation and performance to match, with two Cy Young awards and a third-place finish this season. His contract will pay him $17 million next year, with a $17.5 million option in 2020 and an $18 million option in 2021. If he is traded, those options must both be picked up at once after the 2019 season. Trevor Bauer, coming off a breakout, six-win campaign in 2018, will likely receive around $11 million in arbitration next season, with a decent raise expected in 2020 before he can become a free agent. The final trade candidate is likely no longer one, as Cleveland and Carlos Carrasco have come to terms on a contract extension.
Next season was to be the first of Carrasco’s two option years in a contract he signed right as the 2015 season was getting underway. Without a new contract, Carrasco would have been eligible for free agency after the 2020 season. Under the terms of this new deal, Carrasco will be under contract through at least 2022 with a club option for 2023.
Carlos Carrasco's new contract, per source: 2019: $9.75M 2020: $10.25M 2021: $12M 2022: $12M 2023: $14M club option or a $3M buyout
This guarantees Carrasco the $10.25 million he would have gotten in 2020, then adds $27 million more in guarantees including the buyout in 2023. Two extra years at $27 million might not seem like much for a pitcher of Carrasco’s caliber. Since he signed his first extension in 2015, his 18.2 WAR is seventh among all starters. His back-to-back five-win campaigns puts him in company with only Kluber, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Luis Severino. Getting two additional seasons from an ace-level performer for what a single season of Patrick Corbin will cost feels like a bargain. If he were a free agent right now, he’d probably get more than double the $44 million he’s set to receive. Read the rest of this entry »
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
In the eyes of many, Omar Vizquel was the successor to Ozzie Smith when it came to dazzling defense. Thanks to the increased prevalence of highlight footage on the internet and cable shows such as ESPN’s SportsCenter and Baseball Tonight, the diminutive Venezuelan shortstop’s barehanded grabs, diving stops, and daily acrobatics were seen by far more viewers than Smith’s ever were. Vizquel made up for having a less-than-prototypically-strong arm with incredibly soft hands and a knack for advantageous positioning. Such was the perception of his prowess at the position that he took home 11 Gold Gloves, more than any shortstop this side of Smith, who won 13.
Vizquel’s offense was at least superficially akin to Smith’s: he was a singles-slapping switch-hitter in lineups full of bigger bats, and at his best, a capable table-setter who got on base often enough to score 80, 90, or even 100 runs in some seasons. His ability to move the runner over with a sacrifice bunt or a productive out delighted purists, and he could steal a base, too. While he lacked power, he dealt in volume, piling up more hits (2,877) than all but four shortstops, each in the Hall of Fame or heading there: Derek Jeter (3,465), Honus Wagner (3,420), Cal Ripken (3,184), and Robin Yount (3,142). During his 11-year run in Cleveland (1994-2004), he helped the Indians to six playoff appearances and two pennants.
To some, that makes Vizquel an easy call for the Hall of Fame. In his ballot debut last year, he received 37.0% of the vote, a level of support that doesn’t indicate a fast track to Cooperstown but more often than not suggests eventual enshrinement. These eyes aren’t so sure it’s merited. By WAR and JAWS, Vizquel’s case isn’t nearly as strong as it is on the traditional merits. His candidacy has already become a point of friction between old-school and new-school thinkers, and only promises to be more of the same, not unlike that of Jack Morris.
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians.
Batters
Mind the gap! One wouldn’t think of the Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians as having similar front offices or philosophies, but they ended up in a similar place when it came to their offenses, with each boasting a of couple MVP-types who carried a disproportionately large portion of the load. Now, the Indians don’t have a replacement level Ian Desmond in the lineup, and the lesser lights don’t cost quite as much, but it still leaves Cleveland with a fairly unbalanced offense. The outfield is the biggest problem, with Michael Brantley, who did not receive a qualifying offer, still possessing the third-best batter projection on the team. While Cleveland’s still good enough otherwise that they can win the Central without much of a struggle — even if they trade a starting pitcher and go into the season with their existing outfield — it’s not ideal.
Pitchers
ZiPS really, really likes Shane Bieber. It likes him to such a degree that when I saw the nearly four-WAR projection, I fired up his profile page and checked the Steamer projection to make sure I hadn’t accidentally broken something. Like the time I initially projected Jose Molina to have a 1.200 batting average. I talked more about this in Cleveland’s Elegy for ’18 just a few days ago, but it’s understandable why the Indians are willing to talk pitcher trades. The team is still hopeful about Danny Salazar and while I can’t get in their brains, I suspect they feel the difference between Danny Salazar (or the other fallback options) and Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer is smaller than the difference between nothing and the prospects they could get in return. While I would’ve preferred the team to at least give Brantley a qualifying offer and pinch pennies a few years down the road, one can at least understand their thinking. Read the rest of this entry »
The Indians are one of the best teams in baseball. The Indians have also been one of the best teams in baseball. Last year, they won their division. The year before that, they won their division. The year before that, they won their division, and they nearly won the World Series. The Indians possess an incredible core of star-level players, and they don’t really need to do anything in order to look like a title contender in the season ahead. It’s a good time to be a baseball fan in Cleveland.
Yet the Indians recently unloaded Yan Gomes. As a result, they could use another catcher. And far more significantly, for the past month or so, there’s been talk of the Indians trading one of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco. Nothing has actually happened, of course, but the rumors haven’t gone away, and a trade seems fairly likely. Such a trade would be atypical, to say the least. A first-place team selling would be nearly without precedent. There’s no easy way to look that up, but just about all of the time, good teams buy, and bad teams sell. That is the nature of things.
The Indians being who they are, they’re trying to think about payroll, and they’re trying to think about their window. No one’s ever happy to trade an ace-level starter. At the same time, as much as that kind of trade would suck, the Indians also have a unique opportunity. The Indians are a smaller-budget operation. And they’re the envy of other smaller-budget operations.
No matter what retooling the Indians do in 2019, Francisco Lindor is a franchise mainstay (Photo: Erik Drost)
Coming off three consecutive division wins and a World Series appearance that fell short of the championship by a single run, this offseason has started differently, with the Indians talking about trading a piece or two from their core. In a weak division with two teams rebuilding, a third team with some big holes left to fill, and a fourth trying to rebuild without rebuilding, can the Indians still maintain their hold on the AL Central for the time being?
The Setup
In the last quarter-century, the Cleveland Indians have gone through a significant generational change: the franchise is no longer defined by ineptitude. As losers go, it was the Cubs that got the “lovable” label; Cleveland’s forays into last place felt more sad than anything else. The John Hart era changed all this and after more than 40 years without a playoff spot — indeed, without even a finish above fourth place during the divisional era — Cleveland won the Central in six of seven years, starting in 1995. Cleveland has had two other periods of success since, each with different player cores, and the latest one finds the team at the forefront of sabermetric thought.
The end of Cleveland’s 2017 season was a frustrating one. The Indians won 102 games, the most in the American League and behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers overall. It was a team that was built for playoff success, with dangerous arms at the top of the rotation and bullpen. After the aforementioned World Series appearance the previous season, it was a bit humiliating to exit October in a backdoor sweep, losing a 2-0 series lead over the Yankees on seven unearned runs in the final two games and a team offense that only hit .171/.263/.287.
Baseball losses don’t necessarily teach you a lesson — even the 2018 Orioles dealt better teams 47 losses this season past season — and it was a good thing the organization didn’t panic and decide they lost the ALDS to the Yankees due to some fatal construction flaw.
But maintaining a core can be expensive. Cleveland lost seven players in free agency after the 2017 season (Carlos Santana, Bryan Shaw, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson, Joe Smith, Boone Logan, Craig Breslow) to contracts totaling $150 million, and while only Santana and perhaps Shaw had been key long-term pieces for the team, the departures constituted some real value lost.
Gomes will have an immediate big league impact as part of a Nationals catching tandem with the newly acquired Kurt Suzuki. The 31-year-old Brazilian backstop hit .266/.313/.449 in 2018, showing a dramatic uptick in power compared to career norms. Our projection systems at FanGraphs anticipate a SLG% regression back to a mark just shy of league-average, but Gomes’ Hard Hit% was way up based on our data, and sites like xStats, which calculate expected offensive output based on ball-in-play metrics like exit velocity and launch angle, indicate Gomes’ 2018 power display may be sustainable.
Gomes can also control the running game. He has a plus-plus arm and routinely posts pop times close to 1.90 seconds. He’s also an above-average receiver. Once constantly injured (knee sprain, concussion, separated shoulder from ’14-’16), Gomes has caught 100 games each of the last two years.
Both Gomes and Suzuki are of advanced age and are likely to share time. Washington’s catching looks to be in good shape for the next two years (the life of Suzuki’s deal), especially given the state of the position, league-wide. Gomes has one year remaining on his contract and then a $9 million team option in 2020 and an $11 million team option in 2021.
The Nationals now have a bit of a catching clog on their 40-man, which also houses 25-year-olds Pedro Severino, Raudy Read and 27-year-old Spencer Kieboom. Read has the most offensive talent of that group and hit for power at Double-A last year, but he’s also coming off a PED suspension and is a below-average defender– he’s a below-average receiving, and his plus raw arm strength also comes with accuracy issues. He’s currently playing in the Dominican Winter League for Toros del Este. This depth means a minor trade or other roster move could be on the horizon.
For Cleveland, 23-year-old outfielder Daniel Johnson has one of the louder tool profiles in the minor leagues. He has elite arm strength, plus-plus speed and plus raw power. He’s so gifted, physically, that he’s very likely to have some kind of big league career, though how impactful that career is will be dictated by the development of bat-to-ball skills that are currently behind what is typical for a 23-year-old prospect at Double-A.
Johnson has been so raw for the duration of his scoutable career that he went undrafted as a junior college freshman in 2014. He transferred to New Mexico State and was still so unpolished as a junior hitter that some area scouts wanted to see him on the mound. He had a breakout junior season .382/.434/.630 in a hitter-friendly conference and was drafted in the 5th round.
Johnson spent all of 2018, his second full pro season, at Double-A Harrisburg where he hit .267/.321/.410 with 21 steals in 25 attempts. His ball/strike recognition and ability to make contact are both below average, but neither is so bad that it might inhibit him from playing a big league role in the next year or two. He sees right-handed pitching well-enough that he can do damage against it, and he has a chance to occupy the larger part of an outfield platoon if he keeps mashing righties the way he has in the minors. His speed would indicate center field is an option, but again Johnson’s lack of feel and instincts cause his physical abilities to play down and he may be better off in a corner, especially with superior defenders like Brad Zimmer and Leonys Martin currently on the Cleveland roster.
Tapping into Johnson’s raw power in games will probably require a swing change that cleans up Johnson’s odd, hooking bat path. If that happens, then a 45 FV projection, which is what we had on Johnson entering the offseason, will be too light. Cleveland has had mixed success changing swings in the past (some recent examples: Yandy Diaz and Erik Gonzalez showed no improvement despite their obvious planar issues, but Frankie Lindor adjusted with ease and exploded) so this could go either way.
Cleveland has already done a lot to fill in their roster after the departure of some of their outfielders and it appears as though they’re going to take a platoon-heavy approach there next year. The recent acquisitions of right-handed hitters Oscar Mercado and Jordan Luplow seem to fit well with some of the left-handed hitting options already on the big league roster, which Johnson is now in place to sustain after the 2019 season when Leonys Martin’s deal is up and Jason Kipnis has a looming $16.5 million team option.
Rodriguez is a 25-year-old who threw 52 big league innings in 2018. He throws hard and will touch 99, sitting comfortably in the 93-96 range even as a starter. He’ll show you an above-average curveball and his changeup has sinking action at times, but Rodriguez’s stiff delivery is hard to repeat and he has scattered fastball control and throws lots of non-competitive changeups. He profiles as a two-pitch reliever.
Description:
The Indians Fellowship program is designed to accelerate the pace of development and impact for high-potential candidates. Fellowship roles are focused on complex challenges, developing new approaches, tools and techniques to meaningfully drive the organization forward.
The Cleveland Indians are seeking multiple Fellows to join their Baseball Operations department. Each Fellow will work full-time with one of the Indians’ minor league affiliates and report to both the Player Development and Baseball Operations departments. Fellows will operate as an extension of the front office staff and be a resource for both players and coaches. Fellows will be expected to manage the collection of multiple data streams. Fellows will gain exposure across multiple departments and have access to and be encouraged to use a suite of internal, proprietary resources.
The ideal candidate will be curious, creative, open-minded, and excited to work in a collaborative environment. The candidate will have exceptional interpersonal skills and the ability to present complex topics to a wide range of audiences. They will take the initiative to perform research in the areas of their choosing that advances the Indians’ player development procedures and philosophies.
Responsibilities:
Baseball Technology:
Operate bat/ball tracking technology and other sports science technology.
Manage pre-game and in-game video process.
Manage the corresponding data and video collection process and assist with interpretation.
Research and Development:
Collaborate with coaching staff and player development staff to monitor player goals and player progress.
Perform ad hoc research and analysis, both at the request of staff and independently.
Communicate findings and insights to Minor League Coaches, Players, and Player Development and Baseball Operations Department.
Coaching Staff Support:
Assist Minor League field staff with pre-game on-field activities.
Assist Minor League field staff with Advance Scouting process.
Assist affiliate staff with various administrative tasks.
Education and Experience Requirements:
Bachelor’s degree
Demonstrated passion for at least one of baseball analytics, sports science, hitting or pitching analysis and/or biomechanics, strength and conditioning, motor learning, or other baseball related field.
Conversational Spanish or better a plus
Job Requirements:
Experience with SQL and statistical software (i.e. R, Python, Stata, SAS) a plus.
Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics and publicly available research.
Proficiency with Microsoft Office.
This position will be based at an affiliate and will include travel to away games.
Standard Requirements:
Reads, speaks, comprehends and communicates English effectively in all communications.
Represents the Cleveland Indians in a positive fashion to all business partners and the general public.
Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office.
Ability to act according to the organizational values and service excellence at all times.
Ability to work with multicultural populations and have a commitment to fairness and equality.
Ability to walk, sit or stand for an entire shift.
Ability to work extended days and hours, including holidays and weekends.
Ability to move throughout all areas and levels of the Ballpark.
Ability to work in a diverse and changing environment.
Occasional physical activity such as lifting and carrying boxes up to 25 lbs.
To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application found here.
Hall of Fame debate season is upon us, and subjectivity is inherent in the process. For every no-brainer candidate there are always several for whom a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down is largely in the eye of the beholder. Pushing bias aside — not always an easy exercise — one must weigh a ton of factors. Think “The Scales of Justice,” but with WAR, win totals, and DRS taking the place of a blindfold, a balance, and a sword.
Cutting to the chase, Omar Vizquel — arguably the most-polarizing player on the current ballot — probably deserves to be enshrined in Cooperstown. Attempting to not clumsily put a thumb in my eye while stating his case, I hereby offer the following statistical facts:
Vizquel ranks 43rd all-time with 2,877 hits. Nine of the 10 players directly below him on that list — Brooks Robinson among them — are in the Hall of Fame. The one who is not is Harold Baines. Vizquel had more hits as a shortstop than did Cal Ripken.
