We’re a month into the season and have seen some pretty big swings in the power rankings with plenty of surprises. Here’s how everything stands as we head into the second month of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After being shut out in back-to-back games and losing their first series of the year to the Astros early last week, the Rays took out all their frustrations on the hapless White Sox, scoring 38 runs in their four-game series. An ugly seven-run meltdown in the ninth by Tampa Bay’s bullpen on Sunday was the only thing keeping them from a sweep over the weekend. That aside, the Rays are leading the league in nearly every significant offensive category; it’s hard not to when Randy Arozarena is doing everything right and Wander Franco has seemingly made the leap to superstardom. Amazingly enough, Rays position players have produced almost double the WAR as the next highest team: 10.9 to the Rangers’ 5.5.

The Pirates enter May with the best record in the National League, something no one could have predicted a month ago. They started off the week with a series win against the Dodgers, then signed their best player, Bryan Reynolds, to an eight-year extension. For the first time in a while, Pittsburgh is playing competitive baseball, and a lot of the underlying metrics believe in this surprising hot start. The Bucs will face a tough challenge to start the month with a series in Tampa Bay followed by a date with the Blue Jays at home. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a week of highs and lows as the Rays continued to dominate early this season while the A’s took their first of many steps out of Oakland. Just a reminder that because we’re still so early in the season, we’ll see some pretty wild swings in the rankings below as teams continue to sort themselves out.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays continued their hot start to the season, winning five of their six games last week; they still haven’t lost a game at home this year. The amount of depth on their roster means that even when their fantastic middle infield duo, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, starts to struggle — they collected just six hits between them last week — there’s someone like Harold Ramírez hitting instead (nine hits, two home runs). They’ll face a tough challenge in a surging Astros ballclub this week.

The Rangers vaulted themselves into this top tier by beating up on the Royals and A’s last week. So far, they’ve weathered the loss of Corey Seager to a hamstring injury behind the hot bats of Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Jonah Heim. They’re also getting plenty of help from their pitching staff. Their rotation is fully healthy; Jacob deGrom had an injury scare on Monday after leaving his start after just four innings with a wrist issue but looked dominant against the A’s. But the biggest surprise has been their bullpen, which has the third-lowest ERA in the majors.

It’s shocking to see three NL Central clubs in this tier but not the Cardinals. The hot starts of the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates are backed up by the underlying data: All three teams are hitting well, pitching well, and possess a run differential of at least +25. Cody Bellinger exacted some revenge against his former team, blasting two home runs off Dodgers pitching over the weekend, and Drew Smyly came within six outs of throwing a perfect game against Los Angeles on Friday.

While the Cubs and Brewers have looked impressive, the Pirates are turning heads. They swept the Rockies in Colorado and the Reds at home, allowing no more than three runs in any of their seven games last week, and now sit atop the division. Led by David Bednar, their bullpen has been lights out, while their rotation has gotten breakout performances from Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. They’ve got a tough schedule ahead with dates against the Dodgers, Rays, and Blue Jays over the next two weeks. We’ll see if they’re up to the challenge.

The Astros seem to have broken out of their funk, winning two of three from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Braves in Atlanta last week. They’re still missing Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Lance McCullers Jr., and José Abreu isn’t hitting for power, but they’ve had unexpected contributions up and down their lineup, like Mauricio Dubón, who is filling in for Altuve at second base admirably with a 108 wRC+ and solid defense. Houston’s next task: slow down the Rays this week.

The Mets just wrapped up a 7–3 West Coast road trip, sweeping the A’s, winning two of three from the Dodgers, and splitting four games with the Giants. Despite that successful California swing, they couldn’t avoid stepping on their own toes. Max Scherzer was ejected from his start on Thursday after violating the sticky stuff prohibitions and accepted his 10-game suspension despite maintaining his innocence, but his absence puts New York in a bit of a precarious position. The rotation is already missing Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and José Quintana; the team will need to call up someone to take Scherzer’s place for the next two weeks.

There was a fleeting glimpse of what the Angels could be on Sunday afternoon. Losing to the Royals 2–1 entering the sixth inning, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani launched back-to-back-to-back home runs to put Los Angeles ahead for good. There’s been very little of that kind of offense for the Angels this year; Trout is crushing the ball like usual, but Ohtani has been much better on the mound than at the plate, and Ward had been mired in a slump. Hunter Renfroe has been very good too, but the rest of the lineup just hasn’t carried its weight, and now it’ll be without Logan O’Hoppe for multiple months after he injured his shoulder.

The Twins locked up the most impressive member of their major league-best starting rotation last Monday, signing Pablo López to a four-year deal. Alongside hot starts from Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, they have enjoyed some phenomenal performances from their starters. Unfortunately, their offense has yet to start clicking despite a bounce back from Joey Gallo. Carlos Correa is off to a particularly slow start, and Byron Buxton hasn’t tapped into the prodigious power he displayed last year. They did just activate Jorge Polanco off the IL and Alex Kirilloff shouldn’t be far behind. Perhaps those two will provide the spark to build some distance in the AL Central standings.

After allowing seven runs in three innings, ballooning his ERA up to 10.26, the Diamondbacks designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment on Thursday. They’re eating the remaining $34 million owed to him over the next two years, but his deteriorating performance was too harmful to a team that’s looking to turn a corner this year. Arizona was leading the NL West for most of last week until losing three of four to the Padres over the weekend. Zac Gallen, though, is putting together another long scoreless streak, running it to 21.2 innings after his start on Friday night, and the D-Backs have got a number of young pitching prospects in the high minors they could call on to replace Bumgarner.

The Giants have struggled through a rough start to the season despite a decent run differential. A pair of walk-off losses in Detroit were unfortunate, and they’ve only won a single series this year. But they’re getting good performances from players like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, and Mitch Haniger, one of their key offseason acquisitions, is close to making his season debut. They also signed Logan Webb to a five-year extension last Friday, a significant vote of confidence in his ability to lead the pitching staff.

The vibes are rough on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox haven’t won a series this year and were just swept by the Rays over the weekend, including two ugly walk-off losses. Things aren’t going to get any easier either with a trip to Toronto this week before another series against the Rays and then the Twins after that. With Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada still on the IL, the offense has had trouble getting started, but Chicago’s biggest problem has been a pitching staff that’s allowed the second most runs in the American League.

It feels cruel to continue to highlight the woes of the Athletics in this space, but they’ve played historically bad baseball. To make matters even worse, their ownership group announced that it had signed a binding agreement to purchase land in Las Vegas for a new stadium. There’s still so much up in the air before the franchise packs its bags for the desert, but this is the first concrete step that owner John Fisher and president Dave Kaval have made toward moving the team away from Oakland. It’s a dark time to be an A’s fan.

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The 2023 season is underway and we’ve already seen some history made. With a little over two weeks worth of regular season data, it’s time to start assessing how teams have played to begin this year. It’s way too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but there are some surprises among the best teams, some teams that have shown real improvements so far, and a few others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays won their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern era major league record. You can talk all you want about the quality of their opening schedule — they steamrolled over the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Red Sox, with three of those four series at home — but it’s still really hard to string together that many wins in a row. Of course, their win streak came to an end as soon as they ran into a tougher opponent, losing two of three to the Blue Jays over the weekend. Still, those 13 wins are in the bank and they give Tampa Bay a huge advantage in the extremely competitive AL East. Unfortunately, they’ve already started to suffer some injury attrition — Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin have hit the IL, with the former expected to miss multiple months with an elbow injury.

The Brewers entered the season with a roster in flux. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames remained as anchors in the lineup, but they added three new regulars and were planning on running out two rookies to start the season in Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang. So far, their bet on the newcomers and youth has worked out. Mitchell has mashed the ball despite still struggling with strikeout issues and Turang has been solid at the plate while providing elite defense at second base. A shoulder injury has sidelined Brandon Woodruff for an extended period but Freddy Peralta looks healthy and is pitching extremely well, helping to cover for that hole in the rotation.

The Braves won all six of their games last week, sweeping the Reds and the Royals. That streak has helped them get back on the right track after losing three of four to the Padres last weekend. Ronald Acuña Jr. is crushing the ball again, and Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are keeping the offense rolling. Atlanta is getting Max Fried back from his early season injury today and recently recalled Vaughn Grissom to cover for injured starting shortstop Orlando Arcia; Grissom has already collected hits in all three games he’s played in the big leagues this year.

The Cubs’ veteran reclamation project seems to be paying off so far. Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer are all contributing on offense, though they’re not necessarily playing up to their previous standards. The team just extended Ian Happ and activated Seiya Suzuki from the IL over the weekend. But the real reason they’ve looked so good early this season is a better-than-expected pitching staff. Their rotation has been solid despite some early season hiccups from Hayden Wesneski, and their bullpen is a lot deeper than it looked on paper.

The Blue Jays managed to take down the undefeated Rays over the weekend, winning two of three. Matt Chapman has been leading the offense, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette playing important supporting roles. The Blue Jays’ problem has been a pitching staff that has looked pretty shaky during the first few turns through the rotation. Thankfully, four-fifths of their starters turned in excellent starts last week, though Alek Manoah was torched for seven runs by the Rays on Sunday. He’s carrying a 6.98 ERA and a 7.04 FIP through four starts, and those struggles are beginning to become a real concern.

The Mariners clawed their way back to .500 after struggling through the first few weeks of the season. The man currently steering the ship? None other than Jarred Kelenic, who looks to be finally delivering on all that promise he had as a top prospect. He’s currently in the midst of a 10-game hit streak, blasted four home runs in consecutive games last week, and is now running a 220 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances. And while he’s unlikely to sustain that level of production, it’s a very encouraging sign for the M’s, who were counting on a breakout season from their young outfielder.

The Orioles have gotten off to a strong start behind their young and athletic lineup. They’re running all over the opposition behind strong showings from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. Uber-prospect Gunnar Henderson has been slow to get his rookie campaign off the ground, but he is walking in nearly a quarter of his at-bats. With that kind of plate discipline, the hits will eventually follow. Baltimore finally called up Grayson Rodriguez, too. He’s gotten off to a decent start to his big league career, with his eight strikeouts against the White Sox yesterday a highlight.

The first base position in Philadelphia must be cursed. After losing Rhys Hoskins for the season during spring training, his replacement Darick Hall tore a ligament in his right thumb, sidelining him for months. Now, the Phillies are preparing Bryce Harper to play first to expedite his return from Tommy John surgery. If they value his health, they might be better off sticking with their original plan to keep him at designated hitter for the entire season. Beyond the thinning of their lineup, the Phillies are also working to overcome a disastrous start to the season from their bullpen. The exception is José Alvarado, who has already collected 16 strikeouts in just 6.1 innings pitched.

Except for maybe the Cubs, no team has outperformed their preseason expectations more than the Pirates. They just completed an extremely hard fought split with the Cardinals over the weekend, Bryan Reynolds is leading the offense, and Andrew McCutchen looks revitalized in Pittsburgh yellow and black. Unfortunately, their exciting young shortstop Oneil Cruz broke his ankle on a play at the plate last week and will be out of action until late in the summer at the earliest. That definitely puts a damper on their early success.

It’s certainly surprising to see the Padres this low in the rankings after coming into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. After winning three of four in Atlanta last weekend, they struggled against the Mets and Brewers, losing five of seven. They’ll get both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back this week, which should give their offense and rotation a much needed boost.

No team has outperformed their expected win-loss record more than the Marlins so far. They aren’t doing it with clutch hitting or a lockdown bullpen. They’re simply winning all of the close games they’re playing and getting blown out when they lose. That skews their run differential, but the wins they’ve secured are in the bank. Yesterday was just the second time this season Luis Arraez has been held hitless, finally dropping his batting average below .500. Their starting rotation has been as good as advertised, with Jesús Luzardo looking like he’s finally putting everything together.

Speaking of pitchers putting things together, there’s something happening in Kansas City. With a new development group brought on board by new general manager J.J. Picollo, the Royals pitching staff has rarely looked better. Before going down with a strained flexor in his throwing elbow over the weekend, Kris Bubic put together a handful of promising starts. Brad Keller has a revamped repertoire as well; he’s also gotten off to a strong start. Aroldis Chapman is throwing harder than he has in years. Unfortunately, their offense has been dismal to start the season, and they were just swept by the Braves at home over the weekend to drop them to 4-12.

The A’s have already allowed a whopping 125 runs this year. The major league record for runs allowed in a 162-game season is 1,103 by the 1996 Tigers; at this rate, Oakland is going to shatter that record. They made history on Friday, allowing 17 walks to the Mets, which led to two separate innings with six or more runs allowed on just a single hit. That’s the wrong kind of history they want to be making in Oakland.

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Welcome back baseball! After an exciting and dramatic World Baseball Classic to whet our appetites, the main course is finally here. I introduced these power rankings a few years ago as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside of the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

The Braves haven’t budged from the top of these rankings throughout this offseason. Sure, the Mets spent a ton of money this offseason, and the Phillies just went to the World Series, but Atlanta has owned this division for the last half decade. There are still some lingering questions, however. Orlando Arcia likely isn’t the long-term solution at shortstop, but both Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake were optioned to Triple-A last week; the former has some defensive issues to work through, and the latter needs more exposure to high-level pitching before being handed a job in the big leagues. There are also some injury concerns in their pitching staff, with both Kyle Wright and Raisel Iglesias dealing with shoulder issues this spring and Michael Soroka not fully recovered from his many maladies. Still, this team is loaded with young talent and poised to win its sixth consecutive division title.

The big storyline for the Yankees this spring has been the competition for starting shortstop, with top prospect Anthony Volpe earning a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should provide youthful excitement to cover the very real concerns in the rotation and outfield. Harrison Bader likely won’t be out for long with his strained oblique, but his absence has revealed how shallow the position group is when Aaron Judge has to slide over to center field. And injuries of varying severity to Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas aren’t exactly how you want to start off the season. Read the rest of this entry »

The beginning of spring training is just a week away, and the majority of the big moves this offseason have already happened. There are a few free agents left looking for a new home, but for the most part, teams have set their spring rosters and are looking forward to sifting through their guys as they work toward Opening Day. Now that the ZiPS projections have been plugged into the site and the hot stove is set to a preseason simmer, I thought it would be a good time to revisit these power rankings to check in on how teams did over the offseason. You could think of the Delta column as a rough grade, since it reflects the change in ranking from the last time these ran in mid-November.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA. Read the rest of this entry »

The hot stove is set to simmer while teams take stock of their roster situations and the free-agent market. That means it’s the perfect time to see how each team stacks up against each other. Because these rankings are entirely data driven (based on the Depth Charts projections), there will be some wonky placements, particularly for teams that had significant players leave via free agency earlier this month. Think of these as a glimpse at which teams are close to being ready for 2023 and which teams might have a lot of work to do before thinking about next season. We’ll run these power rankings a couple of times during the offseason as a way to check in on how teams are shaping up heading into Opening Day.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are entirely powered by the 2023 Steamer projections at this point. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

With a young core locked up for years and very few holes on the roster, the Braves are essentially ready to run everything back in 2023. The biggest departure so far is Dansby Swanson; outside of him, Atlanta’s entire starting lineup and rotation will be returning in 2023.

The Braves’ biggest hindrance to improving their roster this offseason is their payroll, which is already butting up against the competitive balance tax. If they want to bring in a new shortstop or re-sign Swanson, they’ll either have to blow past the luxury tax threshold or find creative ways to cut costs. That appeared to be the reason behind trading away Jake Odorizzi last week. And with Vaughn Grissom’s strong rookie showing, there might already be a Swanson replacement in the organization anyway.

It’s surprising to see the Rays this high in the rankings, but their deep and flexible roster means they have few gaps to fill, and some good projections for their young core puts them already ahead of some of their closest division rivals. More importantly, the players they did lose to free agency all have in-house replacements already established or close to debuting — a big benefit of their robust development pipeline. That depth is a double-edged sword, however. Facing a 40-man roster crunch ahead of this week’s Rule 5 roster deadline, Tampa made four trades just in the last week, though none of them had much impact on the overall projections. Read the rest of this entry »

The expanded postseason field made for a distinct lack of drama as the regular season wound down. Most of the field was set by mid-September, with just a few races lasting into the final weeks of the season. But the board has been reset in the postseason. With the new Wild Card round set to begin today, here’s a look at the 12 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve removed the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage from the calculations.

Despite winning 111 games during the regular season, the Dodgers’ World Series odds sit below the Astros — and the Braves too! On paper, they have a juggernaut of a team, but their deep roster is more suited to the grueling pace of a long regular season. During a short series, that depth is wasted to a certain extent. The other reason why the projection systems are discounting their chances is some uncertainty in their pitching staff. Los Angeles won’t have Walker Buehler this postseason, and Dustin May could miss the Division Series. That means leaning on Tyler Anderson and Tony Gonsolin to make critical starts. Both had phenomenal regular-season numbers, but the projections don’t fully trust them as top-tier starters, and Gonsolin only just returned after a month-long absence due to a forearm issue. There’s also some uncertainty in the bullpen, as Craig Kimbrel lost his ninth-inning role during the final month of the season. It’s never a good sign when a team enters the postseason with high-leverage roles in flux.

The Astros have fewer questions to work through. They ran away with the best record in the American League en route to their sixth consecutive playoff appearance, and the only player they’ll be missing from their roster is Michael Brantley, who injured his shoulder in June and will be sidelined until next year. To replace him, Houston acquired Trey Mancini from the Orioles at the trade deadline, though he hasn’t been able to replicate his previous success in his new digs, with a mere 77 wRC+ as an Astro. The pitching staff is once again led by Justin Verlander, who missed the team’s last two October trips. Lance McCullers Jr. will likely play a significant role as well. He injured his forearm during the 2021 postseason and was sidelined for the majority of the regular season but made eight solid starts down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

This week, as the playoff picture becomes clearer and the best teams continue to jockey for seeding, we have another abbreviated power rankings. The only real drama over the next week and a half will come from the two Wild Card races and the battle over the NL East. These rankings will return for a special playoff edition once the field is set.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below. Read the rest of this entry »

A bit of an abbreviated power rankings this week since I’m in the middle of moving. There isn’t much movement in the standings to report on anyway; the best teams continue to coast into the playoffs, and just a handful of teams are still fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — its offense (wRC+) and its starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Astros joined the Dodgers as the second team to clinch a postseason berth last week and could lock up the AL West as soon as today. They might not be on the Dodgers’ level right now, but a few of their key players are heating up at exactly the right time. Justin Verlander made his return to the mound on Friday and pitched five scoreless innings against the A’s with nine strikeouts. In that same game, Yordan Alvarez blasted three home runs; he’s collected 14 hits and six homers in his last seven games. They have plenty of strength throughout the roster, but those two players will likely carry the team deep into October if Houston is going to make a run at another World Series appearance. Read the rest of this entry »

With the new playoff format, the best teams in baseball are coasting into October, hoping to get healthy and stay sharp as the regular season winds down. For the teams whose postseason hopes are slim but still alive, it’s getting close to crunch time, as big division matchups dominate the rest of the schedule.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday, September 11.

The Dodgers and Astros continue to glide toward the playoffs; both teams won four of their six games last week. The Dodgers clinched and then didn’t clinch their 10th straight postseason berth over the weekend, and should clinch the National League West division title sometime this week. The Astros could feasibly follow with a division-clinching of their own next week, as their magic number is down to 12. At this point, both teams should be focused on getting and keeping their rosters healthy and reaching the playoffs with everyone firing on all cylinders. For Houston, that means getting Justin Verlander back from his calf injury and up to a full workload. It would also be great if Jeremy Peña rediscovered the form that helped him jump out to an early American League Rookie of the Year lead before wilting this summer. With Dustin May back from his Tommy John surgery, the Dodgers don’t have as great a need in their rotation as Houston does, but getting Tony Gonsolin back in some capacity would certainly help their pitching depth.

The Mets briefly lost their hold on the NL East last week before regaining a 1.5-game lead over the weekend. They took the cautious route with Max Scherzer’s oblique injury, a move that could pay dividends come October. Obviously, clinching a first-round bye with a division title would allow their injured co-ace to heal up before being called on to carry a heavy load in the playoffs. With a lighter schedule than the Braves from here on out, New York is certainly the favorite to earn the second seed in the NL, though the three-game series in Atlanta during the final week of the season continues to loom exceedingly large.

The Yankees offense finally awoke from its summer slumber over the weekend, and with impeccable timing, too. With their division lead dwindling to just 3.5 games after their loss to the Rays on Friday, they scored 10 runs in back-to-back games to earn the series win against their closest division rival. That gives them a little more wiggle room as the season winds down, though they’ll need to continue to find new ways to score runs with a host of key offensive contributors still sidelined with minor injuries. Amazingly enough, Aaron Judge didn’t hit a home run over the weekend after launching one in four straight games to start last week; that seriously affects his chances of making home run history this season.

The Braves had an eight-game win streak snapped on Saturday and wound up dropping their weekend series against the Mariners after a wild walk-off loss on Sunday. Those two teams combined for 17 home runs in their three-game set, with two apiece in the ninth inning deciding the final game in the series. For their part, the Mariners looked up to the challenge presented by the defending champions, which has been one of the best teams in the NL this year. With a soft remaining schedule, this series against Atlanta was one of their last bellwethers to demonstrate they can compete with the best baseball has to offer. They showed exactly why they’ll be a force to be reckoned with come October.

Despite losing their weekend series in New York, the Rays have made an impressive run up the standings despite playing through a dizzying number of injuries. Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Yonny Chirinos were all activated off the IL last week, and there’s a chance Nick Anderson and possibly even Tyler Glasnow could find their way back to the majors at some point during the season’s final weeks. Getting healthy now is critical because Tampa Bay and Toronto began a huge five-game series yesterday, and the Rays have six games against the Astros and four more against the Blue Jays still on the docket.

The Phillies bounced back from a rough West Coast road trip to win five of six games last week. They’ve continued to hold their ground in the NL Wild Card race, and it’s looking increasingly likely they’ll join the Mariners in snapping an extended postseason drought this year. Somewhat quietly, Aaron Nola has led all pitchers with 4.6 WAR since mid-May. Philadelphia is still waiting to learn the status of Zack Wheeler, but it’s encouraging to know their playoff rotation will be anchored by Nola with some options behind him.

The Padres couldn’t handle the Dodgers over the weekend, losing two of three. They’re still two games up on the Brewers and remain within striking distance of the Phillies for the second Wild Card spot. Josh Hader’s struggles have received most of the headlines, but Juan Soto (119 wRC+ in San Diego), Josh Bell (88 wRC+), and Brandon Drury (88 wRC+) haven’t exactly excelled since being dealt at the trade deadline. Soto will be around longer than just this year, but Bell and Drury are rentals and just aren’t producing at their normal levels (and the latter is on the IL with a concussion). That’s a big problem for a team hoping to avoid another crash-and-burn ending to its season.

The Guardians made a big statement over the weekend, sweeping the Twins to push their lead in the AL Central to three games. After letting the Twins and White Sox get alarmingly close to taking the division lead, the Guardians finally put a little distance between themselves and their division rivals. Their schedule this week is pretty wild: They’ll play the Angels three times, the White Sox once in a rescheduled rainout game, and then the Twins five times in four days from Friday to Monday. That’s a pretty brutal docket and the AL Central standings could look completely different at the end of it.

The White Sox aren’t going to go down without a fight. They won two of three in Seattle early last week and then won three of four in Oakland over the weekend. They’re still within striking distance of the Guardians in the AL Central and a long shot in the Wild Card race. The man leading the charge? Elvis Andrus! Since joining Chicago after getting dumped by the A’s in mid-August, he has posted a .293/.337/.511 slash line (141 wRC+) in 22 games and has buoyed the team in their most desperate hour.

The Orioles’ long-shot hopes took a beating last week. They lost three of four to the Blue Jays and then two of three to the Red Sox, and are now 5.5 games back in the Wild Card race. It’s looking more and more like they’ll have to settle for playing spoiler as this season winds down, though that should still provide some excitement and hope for their fans as they look to build on their late-season success next year.

Mike Trout hit a home run in his seventh consecutive game last night, perhaps giving fans in Los Angeles a glimpse at what could have been if he hadn’t slumped midseason or gotten injured for a month. Trout’s success is a small consolation for the Angels, who have been out of the playoff picture since their epic losing streak in May and June. And befitting Tungsten Arm O’Doyle, they’ve gone 3-4 during Trout’s homer streak.

There hasn’t been much movement in the race to the bottom. The same three teams hold the last three spots in the standings — and therefore the highest odds of receiving the first pick in the first MLB Draft lottery. The Tigers seem to be the only other team that could slip into one of those bottom three spots; they’re just 1.5 games ahead of the Pirates, and the Reds and Royals seem a little too far out at 4.5 games ahead.

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