With the calendar flipped to June, there’s a new team on top of these power rankings.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rangers powered through a 5–1 week and won their fifth straight series by dropping 30 runs on the Mariners over the weekend. They have the best run differential in baseball and have set a new franchise mark for best record through the first 58 games of a season. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, their two big acquisitions a year ago, are producing at elite levels again, and they’re supported by a lineup that has few holes in it. They’ve had all this success despite getting just six starts from Jacob deGrom, their big acquisition this offseason, thus far.

In a matchup of two of the best teams in the National League, the Braves wound up taking two of three from the Diamondbacks in Arizona in a dramatic weekend series full of twists and turns. That was a nice bounce-back after losing two of three to the A’s earlier in the week, giving Oakland its first series win of the season. While there are still plenty of questions about Atlanta’s pitching staff, their offense continues to power their success; Ronald Acuña Jr. is the current favorite to win the NL MVP, and Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy are a fantastic supporting cast. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a third of the way through the regular season, and June is right around the corner. The teams in the American League have sorted themselves into haves and have-nots, but the National League looks wide open for any team to make a run this summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

The Rays just wrapped up a long homestand where they went 7–3 against the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Dodgers. Their schedule in May has been particularly tough, with every single series (except for their current one against the Cubs) coming against teams with winning records. Naturally, when facing its weakest opponent since April, Tampa Bay was shut out in a 1–0 loss on Monday. Also, don’t look now, but the Rangers have overtaken the Rays for the best run differential in baseball.

The Braves welcomed back Michael Soroka on Monday, as he made his first major league start since August 2020. He wasn’t particularly sharp, allowing four runs in six innings against the A’s, but his resilience to get back to the big leagues after so many injuries is inspiring. The hope is that he’ll be able to stabilize an Atlanta rotation still suffering from the absences of Max Fried and Kyle Wright. On offense, Austin Riley’s bat has finally started to heat up; he’s in the midst of an 11-game hitting streak that includes nine extra-base hits. Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees and Cardinals have surged up the standings — and these rankings — behind some outstanding performances from their superstars. That suggests it’s not too late for a big turn around from those early strugglers, especially since the best teams really haven’t been able to separate themselves from the pack so far.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays lost a hard fought series against the Mets last week before taking two of three from the Brewers over the weekend. Their pace has definitely slowed recently, though they’re still on track to challenge the 2001 Mariners’ win record. The injuries are piling up and their entire division is sitting above .500, with the Orioles just 2.5 games behind them. On Sunday, they lost just their fourth game at home this season; they’ll host the Blue Jays and Dodgers this week. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re approaching the quarter mark of the regular season and there’s still a large group of teams that had high expectations heading into the season and have largely disappointed so far. A few of the surprise teams have continued to play well too, but we’re getting to the point where clubs are ready to really evaluate how their roster is shaping up for the summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

For the first time this season, the Rays looked somewhat beatable. They lost a three-game series to the Orioles in Baltimore in which both teams scored six total runs, then battled the Yankees to a series split in New York over the weekend. But those losses last week pale in comparison to the new injury woes they’re facing. After losing Jeffrey Springs earlier this year, Drew Rasmussen has joined him on the 60-day injured list with an ominous elbow injury. Then, on Sunday, Yandy Díaz was removed from the game after suffering a groin injury running the bases. Losing your best hitter is never a good thing, but at least Tampa Bay has the depth to cover for Díaz, and Tyler Glasnow is slowly making his way through his rehab process to fill a hole in the rotation. All those wins the Rays have banked to start the season will definitely come in handy if they end up having trouble overcoming the losses of these key players. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week’s darlings are this week’s dogs, as the Pirates and Orioles slide down in the rankings. The Rays continue to run roughshod over the American League, and the Braves have started to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the National League.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays keep chugging along atop the American League standings with five wins in six games last week, steamrolling the Pirates and winning a hard-fought series against the Yankees over the weekend. So far, they’re outpacing the 2001 Mariners and are showing no signs of letting up on the gas. Even if they come back down to Earth a bit this summer, these banked wins give them a huge margin over their AL East competitors.

The Braves also continue to cruise, with six wins in eight games last week: a split doubleheader against the Mets, a sweep of the Marlins, and a series win over the Orioles. Marquee offseason acquisition Sean Murphy is crushing the ball, leading an offense that’s scored the second most runs in the NL. Their schedule doesn’t let up either; they’ve got dates with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, and Phillies lined up over the next three weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a month into the season and have seen some pretty big swings in the power rankings with plenty of surprises. Here’s how everything stands as we head into the second month of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After being shut out in back-to-back games and losing their first series of the year to the Astros early last week, the Rays took out all their frustrations on the hapless White Sox, scoring 38 runs in their four-game series. An ugly seven-run meltdown in the ninth by Tampa Bay’s bullpen on Sunday was the only thing keeping them from a sweep over the weekend. That aside, the Rays are leading the league in nearly every significant offensive category; it’s hard not to when Randy Arozarena is doing everything right and Wander Franco has seemingly made the leap to superstardom. Amazingly enough, Rays position players have produced almost double the WAR as the next highest team: 10.9 to the Rangers’ 5.5.

The Pirates enter May with the best record in the National League, something no one could have predicted a month ago. They started off the week with a series win against the Dodgers, then signed their best player, Bryan Reynolds, to an eight-year extension. For the first time in a while, Pittsburgh is playing competitive baseball, and a lot of the underlying metrics believe in this surprising hot start. The Bucs will face a tough challenge to start the month with a series in Tampa Bay followed by a date with the Blue Jays at home. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a week of highs and lows as the Rays continued to dominate early this season while the A’s took their first of many steps out of Oakland. Just a reminder that because we’re still so early in the season, we’ll see some pretty wild swings in the rankings below as teams continue to sort themselves out.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays continued their hot start to the season, winning five of their six games last week; they still haven’t lost a game at home this year. The amount of depth on their roster means that even when their fantastic middle infield duo, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, starts to struggle — they collected just six hits between them last week — there’s someone like Harold Ramírez hitting instead (nine hits, two home runs). They’ll face a tough challenge in a surging Astros ballclub this week.

The Rangers vaulted themselves into this top tier by beating up on the Royals and A’s last week. So far, they’ve weathered the loss of Corey Seager to a hamstring injury behind the hot bats of Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Jonah Heim. They’re also getting plenty of help from their pitching staff. Their rotation is fully healthy; Jacob deGrom had an injury scare on Monday after leaving his start after just four innings with a wrist issue but looked dominant against the A’s. But the biggest surprise has been their bullpen, which has the third-lowest ERA in the majors.

It’s shocking to see three NL Central clubs in this tier but not the Cardinals. The hot starts of the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates are backed up by the underlying data: All three teams are hitting well, pitching well, and possess a run differential of at least +25. Cody Bellinger exacted some revenge against his former team, blasting two home runs off Dodgers pitching over the weekend, and Drew Smyly came within six outs of throwing a perfect game against Los Angeles on Friday.

While the Cubs and Brewers have looked impressive, the Pirates are turning heads. They swept the Rockies in Colorado and the Reds at home, allowing no more than three runs in any of their seven games last week, and now sit atop the division. Led by David Bednar, their bullpen has been lights out, while their rotation has gotten breakout performances from Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. They’ve got a tough schedule ahead with dates against the Dodgers, Rays, and Blue Jays over the next two weeks. We’ll see if they’re up to the challenge.

The Astros seem to have broken out of their funk, winning two of three from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Braves in Atlanta last week. They’re still missing Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Lance McCullers Jr., and José Abreu isn’t hitting for power, but they’ve had unexpected contributions up and down their lineup, like Mauricio Dubón, who is filling in for Altuve at second base admirably with a 108 wRC+ and solid defense. Houston’s next task: slow down the Rays this week.

The Mets just wrapped up a 7–3 West Coast road trip, sweeping the A’s, winning two of three from the Dodgers, and splitting four games with the Giants. Despite that successful California swing, they couldn’t avoid stepping on their own toes. Max Scherzer was ejected from his start on Thursday after violating the sticky stuff prohibitions and accepted his 10-game suspension despite maintaining his innocence, but his absence puts New York in a bit of a precarious position. The rotation is already missing Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and José Quintana; the team will need to call up someone to take Scherzer’s place for the next two weeks.

There was a fleeting glimpse of what the Angels could be on Sunday afternoon. Losing to the Royals 2–1 entering the sixth inning, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani launched back-to-back-to-back home runs to put Los Angeles ahead for good. There’s been very little of that kind of offense for the Angels this year; Trout is crushing the ball like usual, but Ohtani has been much better on the mound than at the plate, and Ward had been mired in a slump. Hunter Renfroe has been very good too, but the rest of the lineup just hasn’t carried its weight, and now it’ll be without Logan O’Hoppe for multiple months after he injured his shoulder.

The Twins locked up the most impressive member of their major league-best starting rotation last Monday, signing Pablo López to a four-year deal. Alongside hot starts from Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, they have enjoyed some phenomenal performances from their starters. Unfortunately, their offense has yet to start clicking despite a bounce back from Joey Gallo. Carlos Correa is off to a particularly slow start, and Byron Buxton hasn’t tapped into the prodigious power he displayed last year. They did just activate Jorge Polanco off the IL and Alex Kirilloff shouldn’t be far behind. Perhaps those two will provide the spark to build some distance in the AL Central standings.

After allowing seven runs in three innings, ballooning his ERA up to 10.26, the Diamondbacks designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment on Thursday. They’re eating the remaining $34 million owed to him over the next two years, but his deteriorating performance was too harmful to a team that’s looking to turn a corner this year. Arizona was leading the NL West for most of last week until losing three of four to the Padres over the weekend. Zac Gallen, though, is putting together another long scoreless streak, running it to 21.2 innings after his start on Friday night, and the D-Backs have got a number of young pitching prospects in the high minors they could call on to replace Bumgarner.

The Giants have struggled through a rough start to the season despite a decent run differential. A pair of walk-off losses in Detroit were unfortunate, and they’ve only won a single series this year. But they’re getting good performances from players like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, and Mitch Haniger, one of their key offseason acquisitions, is close to making his season debut. They also signed Logan Webb to a five-year extension last Friday, a significant vote of confidence in his ability to lead the pitching staff.

The vibes are rough on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox haven’t won a series this year and were just swept by the Rays over the weekend, including two ugly walk-off losses. Things aren’t going to get any easier either with a trip to Toronto this week before another series against the Rays and then the Twins after that. With Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada still on the IL, the offense has had trouble getting started, but Chicago’s biggest problem has been a pitching staff that’s allowed the second most runs in the American League.

It feels cruel to continue to highlight the woes of the Athletics in this space, but they’ve played historically bad baseball. To make matters even worse, their ownership group announced that it had signed a binding agreement to purchase land in Las Vegas for a new stadium. There’s still so much up in the air before the franchise packs its bags for the desert, but this is the first concrete step that owner John Fisher and president Dave Kaval have made toward moving the team away from Oakland. It’s a dark time to be an A’s fan.

…

The 2023 season is underway and we’ve already seen some history made. With a little over two weeks worth of regular season data, it’s time to start assessing how teams have played to begin this year. It’s way too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but there are some surprises among the best teams, some teams that have shown real improvements so far, and a few others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays won their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern era major league record. You can talk all you want about the quality of their opening schedule — they steamrolled over the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Red Sox, with three of those four series at home — but it’s still really hard to string together that many wins in a row. Of course, their win streak came to an end as soon as they ran into a tougher opponent, losing two of three to the Blue Jays over the weekend. Still, those 13 wins are in the bank and they give Tampa Bay a huge advantage in the extremely competitive AL East. Unfortunately, they’ve already started to suffer some injury attrition — Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin have hit the IL, with the former expected to miss multiple months with an elbow injury.

The Brewers entered the season with a roster in flux. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames remained as anchors in the lineup, but they added three new regulars and were planning on running out two rookies to start the season in Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang. So far, their bet on the newcomers and youth has worked out. Mitchell has mashed the ball despite still struggling with strikeout issues and Turang has been solid at the plate while providing elite defense at second base. A shoulder injury has sidelined Brandon Woodruff for an extended period but Freddy Peralta looks healthy and is pitching extremely well, helping to cover for that hole in the rotation.

The Braves won all six of their games last week, sweeping the Reds and the Royals. That streak has helped them get back on the right track after losing three of four to the Padres last weekend. Ronald Acuña Jr. is crushing the ball again, and Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are keeping the offense rolling. Atlanta is getting Max Fried back from his early season injury today and recently recalled Vaughn Grissom to cover for injured starting shortstop Orlando Arcia; Grissom has already collected hits in all three games he’s played in the big leagues this year.

The Cubs’ veteran reclamation project seems to be paying off so far. Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer are all contributing on offense, though they’re not necessarily playing up to their previous standards. The team just extended Ian Happ and activated Seiya Suzuki from the IL over the weekend. But the real reason they’ve looked so good early this season is a better-than-expected pitching staff. Their rotation has been solid despite some early season hiccups from Hayden Wesneski, and their bullpen is a lot deeper than it looked on paper.

The Blue Jays managed to take down the undefeated Rays over the weekend, winning two of three. Matt Chapman has been leading the offense, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette playing important supporting roles. The Blue Jays’ problem has been a pitching staff that has looked pretty shaky during the first few turns through the rotation. Thankfully, four-fifths of their starters turned in excellent starts last week, though Alek Manoah was torched for seven runs by the Rays on Sunday. He’s carrying a 6.98 ERA and a 7.04 FIP through four starts, and those struggles are beginning to become a real concern.

The Mariners clawed their way back to .500 after struggling through the first few weeks of the season. The man currently steering the ship? None other than Jarred Kelenic, who looks to be finally delivering on all that promise he had as a top prospect. He’s currently in the midst of a 10-game hit streak, blasted four home runs in consecutive games last week, and is now running a 220 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances. And while he’s unlikely to sustain that level of production, it’s a very encouraging sign for the M’s, who were counting on a breakout season from their young outfielder.

The Orioles have gotten off to a strong start behind their young and athletic lineup. They’re running all over the opposition behind strong showings from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. Uber-prospect Gunnar Henderson has been slow to get his rookie campaign off the ground, but he is walking in nearly a quarter of his at-bats. With that kind of plate discipline, the hits will eventually follow. Baltimore finally called up Grayson Rodriguez, too. He’s gotten off to a decent start to his big league career, with his eight strikeouts against the White Sox yesterday a highlight.

The first base position in Philadelphia must be cursed. After losing Rhys Hoskins for the season during spring training, his replacement Darick Hall tore a ligament in his right thumb, sidelining him for months. Now, the Phillies are preparing Bryce Harper to play first to expedite his return from Tommy John surgery. If they value his health, they might be better off sticking with their original plan to keep him at designated hitter for the entire season. Beyond the thinning of their lineup, the Phillies are also working to overcome a disastrous start to the season from their bullpen. The exception is José Alvarado, who has already collected 16 strikeouts in just 6.1 innings pitched.

Except for maybe the Cubs, no team has outperformed their preseason expectations more than the Pirates. They just completed an extremely hard fought split with the Cardinals over the weekend, Bryan Reynolds is leading the offense, and Andrew McCutchen looks revitalized in Pittsburgh yellow and black. Unfortunately, their exciting young shortstop Oneil Cruz broke his ankle on a play at the plate last week and will be out of action until late in the summer at the earliest. That definitely puts a damper on their early success.

It’s certainly surprising to see the Padres this low in the rankings after coming into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. After winning three of four in Atlanta last weekend, they struggled against the Mets and Brewers, losing five of seven. They’ll get both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back this week, which should give their offense and rotation a much needed boost.

No team has outperformed their expected win-loss record more than the Marlins so far. They aren’t doing it with clutch hitting or a lockdown bullpen. They’re simply winning all of the close games they’re playing and getting blown out when they lose. That skews their run differential, but the wins they’ve secured are in the bank. Yesterday was just the second time this season Luis Arraez has been held hitless, finally dropping his batting average below .500. Their starting rotation has been as good as advertised, with Jesús Luzardo looking like he’s finally putting everything together.

Speaking of pitchers putting things together, there’s something happening in Kansas City. With a new development group brought on board by new general manager J.J. Picollo, the Royals pitching staff has rarely looked better. Before going down with a strained flexor in his throwing elbow over the weekend, Kris Bubic put together a handful of promising starts. Brad Keller has a revamped repertoire as well; he’s also gotten off to a strong start. Aroldis Chapman is throwing harder than he has in years. Unfortunately, their offense has been dismal to start the season, and they were just swept by the Braves at home over the weekend to drop them to 4-12.

The A’s have already allowed a whopping 125 runs this year. The major league record for runs allowed in a 162-game season is 1,103 by the 1996 Tigers; at this rate, Oakland is going to shatter that record. They made history on Friday, allowing 17 walks to the Mets, which led to two separate innings with six or more runs allowed on just a single hit. That’s the wrong kind of history they want to be making in Oakland.

…

Welcome back baseball! After an exciting and dramatic World Baseball Classic to whet our appetites, the main course is finally here. I introduced these power rankings a few years ago as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside of the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

The Braves haven’t budged from the top of these rankings throughout this offseason. Sure, the Mets spent a ton of money this offseason, and the Phillies just went to the World Series, but Atlanta has owned this division for the last half decade. There are still some lingering questions, however. Orlando Arcia likely isn’t the long-term solution at shortstop, but both Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake were optioned to Triple-A last week; the former has some defensive issues to work through, and the latter needs more exposure to high-level pitching before being handed a job in the big leagues. There are also some injury concerns in their pitching staff, with both Kyle Wright and Raisel Iglesias dealing with shoulder issues this spring and Michael Soroka not fully recovered from his many maladies. Still, this team is loaded with young talent and poised to win its sixth consecutive division title.

The big storyline for the Yankees this spring has been the competition for starting shortstop, with top prospect Anthony Volpe earning a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should provide youthful excitement to cover the very real concerns in the rotation and outfield. Harrison Bader likely won’t be out for long with his strained oblique, but his absence has revealed how shallow the position group is when Aaron Judge has to slide over to center field. And injuries of varying severity to Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas aren’t exactly how you want to start off the season. Read the rest of this entry »

The beginning of spring training is just a week away, and the majority of the big moves this offseason have already happened. There are a few free agents left looking for a new home, but for the most part, teams have set their spring rosters and are looking forward to sifting through their guys as they work toward Opening Day. Now that the ZiPS projections have been plugged into the site and the hot stove is set to a preseason simmer, I thought it would be a good time to revisit these power rankings to check in on how teams did over the offseason. You could think of the Delta column as a rough grade, since it reflects the change in ranking from the last time these ran in mid-November.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA. Read the rest of this entry »