The RosterResource Depth Charts and Payroll pages are now officially in offseason mode, meaning that all free agents have been removed from their 2020 teams and a projected 26-man roster for Opening Day 2021 is displayed. As roster moves occur and news is reported, I’ll update these projections almost immediately and announce them on my Twitter account.

As of now, we will operate under the roster rules that were to be in place for the 2020 season prior to the league shutting down in March, meaning these projections assume a 26-man roster with a 13-pitcher limit and no designated hitter in the National League.

If you find yourself scratching your head about a particular projection, it’s very likely that you’ve discovered a team need. If you disagree with a projection, we might just have differing opinions. It’s also possible that I’m overlooking something, and would greatly appreciate hearing your opinion on the matter. Twitter is the easiest way to make a suggestion or report an error.

It’s important to note that these are Opening Day roster projections. Once we incorporate 2021 statistical projections, you will notice that certain players listed in the Minor League section have a significant amount of projected playing time and are expected to play an integral role for the upcoming season. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we received a reader request asking if we could include postseason games on our team pitcher usage pages:

https://twitter.com/Junts/status/1313897147188871168

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With just a few weeks of the postseason left, it’s hard to believe that it has been almost eight months since the major league season was postponed. I’m sure that for all of us, these past eight months have felt like a lifetime.

Since March, we’ve been asking for your support and you’ve been there every step of the way. Things looked pretty grim when I published my first update on the state of the site as we grappled with the COVID-19 pandemic, but we’re still here and that’s entirely thanks to you. We are so grateful to have such supportive readers.

For the last fifteen years, our small staff’s dedication and love of baseball have allowed us to punch above our weight in the baseball media space despite a tight operating budget. But the revenue landscape for FanGraphs has changed considerably, and once the postseason winds down, we’ll have five baseball-less months to bridge until the start of the 2021 season. And so I’m here to ask for your help once again. Even though our traffic has rebounded to within 10% of our normal August and September levels, our revenue has not, due in large part to the continued depression of online advertising rates. This has forced us to become considerably more reliant on Memberships to make up the difference.

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After a successful initial run — during which I managed not to break FanGraphs beyond repair — the ZiPS playoff probabilities have returned for the 2020 postseason. Again, they are not a replacement for the site’s existing playoff odds, which combine ZiPS and Steamer, but rather serve as a supplemental option with a slightly different methodology. These projections are arrived at similarly to how ZiPS does its roster strength projections during the regular season, only with roster constructions that reflect the very different ways players are used during the playoffs:

These odds will be updated continually as we get closer to first pitch in each round and each game’s starters become clear. Projections for the Division Series that will be played between the various Wild Card Series’ winners will populate after those series have concluded. For the moment, you’ll see their tabs grayed out. In addition to game-by-game projections, you’ll also find series odds, which will update as each series progresses. Read the rest of this entry »

Our 2021 Free Agent Tracker is now live! There are currently over 200 players on the list, and several more will be added during the weeks following the postseason as decisions are made on 2021 options and teams continue to clear space on their 40-man rosters. The tracker will be regularly updated throughout the offseason as qualifying offers are made, accepted, and rejected, and free agents find their new homes.

You can filter by status (signed/unsigned), previous team, and signing team, and export the data for your own analysis. You can also currently sort by a player’s handedness, age, and 2020 WAR. Shortly after the postseason ends, projected 2021 WAR will be available, as well will the results of our annual contract crowdsourcing project, which include median contract total, years, and average annual value.

Players with options are not included in the list. The options typically do not have to be exercised or declined until five days after the World Series ends. As options are declined, those players will be added. Some of the more notable players with at least a decent chance of having their options declined are Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Brett Gardner, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Santana. Both Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez can become free agents by opting out of their current deals, but neither appears likely to do so at this point. Read the rest of this entry »

Want to forever remember John Sterling’s riff on your favorite baseball site’s name? Now you can! In our first collaboration with RotoWear, “I don’t know who FanGraph is” t-shirts are now available for sale.

I don't know who fangraph is pic.twitter.com/59VypfZNgQ

— John Sterling Calls (@JSterlingCalls) August 31, 2020

Not only does the shirt look great, but buying one will also help support the site! Order yours today!

We’re pleased to announce that we’ve begun publishing MLB’s Statcast data on FanGraphs!

At the moment, you can view Average Exit Velocity, Maximum Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, Barrels, Barrel%, HardHit balls, and HardHit%. For specific details about these measurements and metrics, please consult MLB’s Statcast Glossary. In addition to the stats listed above, we’re also reporting Events, which are calculated batted balls determined by PA – SO – BB – HBP for batters and TBF – SO – BB – HBP for pitchers. Statcast data is available from the 2015 season onward.

These metrics are currently available on our player pages and leaderboards, and in our game logs. In addition, Average Exit Velocity will display as a column on the players’ dashboard for both batters and pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »

With the surprise news that the 2020 season will feature expanded playoffs, we’ve been scrambling all afternoon to get our playoff odds updated:

And we did it! Or, at least we think we did it, based on the following reporting earlier in the day, which gave us something of a head start:

Seeds 1-3 will go to the division winners based on record.

Seeds 4-6 will go to the runners-up based on record.

Seeds 7 and 8 will be based on record.

Thus, there is a possibility the third-best division winner actually plays a worse team than the two best division winners.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 23, 2020

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Somewhat lost in the hubbub of the long-awaited arrival of Opening Day is the coincidence that, if not for the coronavirus pandemic, Thursday would have marked the beginning of the 2020 Hall of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown. On April 30, at a point when the Hall of Fame’s doors had been closed for a month and a half, the institution officially announced that its board of directors had unanimously voted to postpone this year’s festivities, with the honorees instead slated to be recognized next year alongside those from the Class of 2021. The decision came down in spite of the fact that Cooperstown itself had been relatively untouched by the spread of the coronavirus, but in anticipation of a potentially record-setting crowd on hand to witness the inductions of Derek Jeter, Marvin Miller, Ted Simmons, and Larry Walker, the institution took an admirably proactive stance, not wanting 50,000-plus attendees from all around the country (and the world) to pack together and then risk carrying infections back to their communities.

The minimal spread of the coronavirus to Cooperstown and the Mohawk Valley allowed the Hall to reopen four weeks ago, with appropriate safety measures in place, but the loss of the weekend’s festivities hits home for this scribe. Not only would I have been attending my fourth Induction Weekend in a row, celebrating with fellow writers, fans, local Cooperstown residents, and other friends I’ve made through my repeated visits, but I would have been hawking copies of The Cooperstown Casebook on Main Street, meeting and greeting readers, a handful of whom have made an annual ritual of buying another signed copy to give to a friend while arguing good-naturedly about the merits of their favorite candidate. That Simmons and Walker were both profiled at length in the book — as were 2017 honoree Tim Raines, ’18 honoree Alan Trammell, and ’19 honorees Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera — makes this year’s postponement sting just a bit more, because it’s incredibly gratifying to share the joy with fans of the honorees for whom we’ve all gone the extra mile, figuratively and literally. Aw, wait ’til next year! Read the rest of this entry »

While researching his latest article, Ben Lindbergh of Effectively Wild and The Ringer asked me and David Appelman if we had data for the most WAR accrued over any given 60-game stretch for a player since 2002 (Hint: It’s Barry Bonds). One question begets others, like who had the worst WAR over 60-games since 2002 (poor Ryan Doumit). The next thing we knew, we had literally millions rows of data, so we decided to make a leaderboard out of them so you can use the data we found.

Creating a quirky leaderboard for this equally quirky baseball season takes database resources and developer time. Your continued support and Membership allows us to afford those resources and create a leaderboard you won’t find anywhere else. If you haven’t already, please consider becoming a FanGraphs Member or donating to the site, so that we can continue to create awesome tools to answer your (and Ben’s) baseball questions.

The Basics

• We have 60-game rolling stats for batters.
• We have 12-game rolling stats for pitchers. By default we only show 12-game spans that have all been starts.
• The rolling stats are delineated by season, so each span of games occurs within the same season.
• This is an extension of the data engine behind our rolling graphs on the player pages, except pivoted into a leaderboard.
• Unfortunately, the length of the rolling stats are fixed to 60 or 12 games, and can’t be changed to other values.
• Since these are rolling stats, you can have spans that have fewer than 60 or 12 games. This typically happens at the beginning of the season or if a player didn’t play enough games over the course of the entire season.
• We include data from 1974 to 2019.

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