Are you a fan of a team in playoff position? Are you tearing your hair out because their bullpen has been completely unable to get anybody out over the past couple weeks? Is this starting to get creepy? Does it feel as if I’m staring straight into your very soul? Worry not. I’m just playing the odds. Below is a table that shows bullpen performance over the last 14 days, but only for the 13 teams with at least a 12% chance of making the playoffs. I’ve highlighted the teams whose ERA ranks in the bottom half of the league over that stretch:

There are the Red Sox in fifth place, looking solid with a 3.40 ERA. But, uh, this not exactly an encouraging sign for all these playoff teams. That’s a lot of yellow. Boston is the only team in the top 10; no one else has a bullpen ERA below 4.00. Only five of these teams are even in the top half of the league. The Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Blue Jays all have ERAs over 5.00.

The Brewers are tied with the Twins for the league lead with five blown saves in the past two weeks. The Blue Jays and Phillies each have four. Just a reminder: The Brewers have the best record in baseball, and the Blue Jays and Phillies are tied for the second best. All of sudden, none of them can close out a game to save their lives.

Once again, I need to disavow any supernatural influence here. I don’t think there’s a paranormal reason that seemingly every good baseball team’s bullpen is in a rut. It’s mostly a coincidence. If we look at FIP, things are much more reasonable. Six of our 13 teams are in the top 10, and only four are in the bottom half of the league. That’s pretty much what you’d expect. Most of the good teams have strong bullpens. This is a short stretch, a small sample of innings, and a volatile cohort to start with. The Brewers’ bullpen has an excellent 3.29 FIP over the past two weeks, but it’s blown five saves anyway. Stuff happens.

I’ll break down the four teams at the bottom of the table along with a couple others I found noteworthy due to injury reasons, or because I’m worried about them heading into the playoffs, but that’s mostly what I wanted to tell you. All the bullpens seem to be blowing up right now. It’s weird. If you’re tearing your hair out because we’re in September and your bullpen can’t hold on to a lead, relax. First, there may be enough time to right the ship. Second, whoever you’re facing in the playoffs can’t hold a lead right now either, unless it’s the Red Sox (who gave up eight runs in a bullpen game last night, presumably because that’s what all the cool kids are doing).

Mets
The Mets lead the league with a whopping six relievers on the IL right now: Reed Garrett, Drew Smith, Danny Young, A.J. Minter, Max Kranick, and Dedniel Núñez. Smith, Minter, Kranick, and Garrett had all been pitching well before their injuries. That’s four good relievers lost, and only Garrett has a chance to return this season. That’s how the Mets ended up claiming Wander Suero, who has thrown just 6 1/3 major league innings in the last two seasons combined, from the Braves off waivers yesterday. Suero has a 1.35 ERA and 2.63 FIP over 46 2/3 innings in Triple-A Gwinnett, and he will get the chance to prove that’s not a fluke. The Mets called him up less than half an hour ago to take the spot of the struggling Kodai Senga, who has been optioned to Syracuse.

More than that, Ryan Helsley has been completely ineffective since the deadline trade that brought him to New York from St. Louis. He had a 3.00 ERA and 3.56 FIP as a Cardinal, and he has a 11.45 ERA and 6.50 FIP as a Met. Helsley said last week that he thinks he’s been tipping pitches. With any luck, he’ll get that sorted out. If he does that and Garrett comes back pitching well, they’ll join Tyler Rogers, lefties Brooks Raley and Gregory Soto, and closer Edwin Díaz, all of whom are putting up good numbers this season. Somehow the Mets could still put together a solid bullpen going into the playoffs.

Dodgers
The Dodgers’ relievers rank third in the majors with 5.2 WAR this season, but that’s mostly because they’ve been asked to throw 570 1/3 innings, the most in baseball. At the moment, RosterResource says they’re tied with the Brewers at five injured relievers, one behind the Mets. They lost Evan Phillips to Tommy John surgery in May, deadline acquisition Brock Stewart went on the IL with shoulder inflammation almost immediately after the trade, and Alex Vesia strained an oblique on August 21. Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius are the only relievers on the team with FIPs below 3.50. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates are load-bearing pieces who have taken major steps back and lost time to injury besides, and yet the Dodgers are still one of the higher teams on the list. After missing time with forearm tightness earlier in the season, Blake Treinen has allowed just two runs in his last 12 appearances, and his ERA is down to 3.00.

Yankees
The headliner here is the 5.60 ERA that Devin Williams has put up this season, but as Michael Baumann wrote earlier today, the underlying numbers aren’t that bad. They’re maybe even good. The Yankees lost Jake Cousins to Tommy John surgery in June and Jonathan Loáisiga to a flexor strain in August. Brent Headrick is also on the IL after taking a line drive off his pitching arm. The Yankees have also suffered blowups from Paul Blackburn and Yerry De los Santos. They pulled the plug on deadline acquisition Jake Bird almost immediately. He had a 4.73 ERA and and 3.50 FIP in Colorado before the deadline, but he got into just three games for the Yankees, allowing six runs over two innings before being optioned to Triple-A, where he has continued to struggle. Luke Weaver has been bitten by the home run bug lately, allowing four in his last seven appearances for an ERA of 5.14. However, his average exit velocity over that stretch is lower than it’s been the rest of the season, and he’s run a 2.53 xFIP. It seems more like bad luck than anything.

Fernando Cruz and David Bednar have been lights-out, Tim Hill is still a groundball machine, and Camilo Doval hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances. Over the entire season, the Yankees bullpen has a 3.93 xFIP, tied for second-best in baseball. Over the past two weeks, they’ve got the second-best FIP despite the hideous ERA. It’s hard to imagine them making a run without Williams and Weaver (The Deadly W’s) turning things around, but this isn’t necessarily a disastrous ‘pen either.

Cubs
By most metrics, the Cubs bullpen has been right in the middle of the pack this year. In the past two weeks, its 3.05 xFIP is the third best in baseball. So why are the ERA and FIP so ugly? That’s the danger of playing in homer-friendly Wrigley Field in August. Over that stretch, 21.1% of their fly balls have gone for home runs, second only to the Rockies (and not coincidentally, they recently spent a three-game series in Colorado). Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers have put up good seasons, but have each given up a couple of homers in recent weeks, and because the Cubs have relied on their bullpen less than just about any other team over that stretch, those mistakes have been magnified. Nothing that’s happened in the past two weeks has made me change my opinion of this relief corps.

Phillies
Philadelphia’s bullpen has been an issue all year long. Free agent signings Joe Ross and Jordan Romano have not worked out at all, putting up a combined -0.5 WAR over 86 appearances and 93 2/3 innings. The good news is that the bullpen looks very different now. The Phillies released Ross, and Romano hit the IL with middle finger inflammation. They signed David Robertson in free agency in July, traded for Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and got star lefty José Alvarado back from an 80-game PED suspension on August 20. Alvardo has looked very rusty since his return and won’t be available for the playoffs, but Robertson and Duran have been excellent. Together with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, the Phillies should have a serviceable, if shallow, bullpen going into October. With Zack Wheeler out and Aaron Nola struggling, the rotation may be the bigger concern.

Blue Jays
How much time do you have? The Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024, and if nothing else, they looked primed to bounce back. They non-tendered Jordan Romano. They signed the excellent Jeff Hoffman, traded for Nick Sandlin, brought back Yimi García and Ryan Yarbrough, and took flyers on arms like Amir Garrett, Jacob Barnes, and Richard Lovelady. And they have bounced back. They rank in the middle of the pack in both ERA and FIP, and seventh in xFIP. Lately, though, they just can’t seem to get outs.

They released Yarbrough before the season. The fliers they took haven’t worked out, nor have in-house guys like Chad Green, Zach Pop, and Erik Swanson. They’ve lost major pieces, with both Sandlin and García out for the season. Other injuries forced Easton Lucas and Eric Lauer into starting roles, where they’ve performed significantly worse. Hoffman put up three ugly performances in the last week of August, though he’s looked much better in the past week. Although the underlying numbers aren’t bad, deadline acquisition Louis Varland has a 6.91 ERA in 15 appearances as a Blue Jay.

If Hoffman can keep things straightened out, if Varland’s luck can turn around, if Lucas and Lauer can get back in the bullpen, if the arms that got them here – Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher – can keep doing what they’re doing, the Blue Jays could have a decent bullpen going into the playoffs. But that’s a lot of ifs.

It’s been a rough season for Francisco Alvarez — and specifically his hands. The 23-year-old catcher fractured a hamate in his left hand while taking batting practice on March 8, and after undergoing surgery, missed the first four weeks of the regular season. He scuffled upon returning, to the point that the Mets optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse in late June, but particularly since returning in late July, he hit well until he sprained the ulnar collateral ligament of his right thumb (as opposed to the UCL of his elbow) while making a headfirst slide on August 17. The injury, which requires surgery to fix, appeared to be season-ending, but to the Mets’ surprise, Alvarez has been able to swing the bat without pain, so he began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday. Unfortunately, in his third plate appearance of the game, he was hit on the left pinkie by an 89-mph sinker and had to leave the game.

Alvarez, who also missed seven weeks last year due to surgery to repair a torn UCL in his left thumb, was sent for testing after being removed. At this writing, the Mets have yet to reveal his prognosis, but this may set back his return, and he’ll still need another surgery this offseason. When available, he’s been one of the Mets’ more productive hitters, a big step up from the team’s other catchers on the offensive side. In 56 games, he’s hit for a career high 125 wRC+ (.265/.349/.438) with seven homers in 209 plate appearances, good for 1.4 WAR. Luis Torrens, who hit well while serving as the team’s regular catcher during Alvarez’s early-season absence, has slumped to the point that he’s batting .218/.282/.320 (73 wRC+) in 245 PA, and third-stringer Hayden Senger has been even less productive, hitting .180/.227/.197 (22 wRC+) in 67 PA.

[Update: On Thursday afternoon, Alvarez revealed that his pinkie is fractured. He said he hopes to play again this season, but a timeline for that has yet to be determined.]

The Mets, who are now 72-61, just swept a three-game series against the Phillies (76-57) at Citi Field to pull within four games of the NL East leaders. They’ve won eight of their last 11 games after losing 14 of 16 from July 28 to August 15, a skid that bumped them down to third in the NL Wild Card race, though they now have a 4 1/2-game cushion over the Reds (68-66). They’ve got some other injuries that could affect their drive for a playoff spot, but in that, they’re not alone. What follows here is a roundup of fairly recent injuries among NL contenders, some that slipped through the cracks in our coverage during recent weeks and others that merit mention so long as we’re on the topic; an alarming number of these involve fingers. I’ll go division-by-division, and follow this with a similar AL roundup. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Tucker needs to learn how to manage expectations better. He’s having a good season on paper: .261/.374/.447 with 18 home runs. He has a 131 wRC+, more walks than strikeouts, and 25 stolen bases in 27 attempts. His WAR, 3.9, is a tenth behind Kyle Schwarber, who’s getting MVP chatter, and two tenths ahead of Juan Soto.

But right now, the Cubs star is really going through it, and nobody is happy.

Tucker is 2-for-25 in his past seven games and just 8-for-54 in August. He hasn’t hit a home run in 31 days, and most incredibly, his last extra-base hit of any kind came in July. Tucker is taking it about as well as you’d expect; on Sunday, he didn’t run out a groundball to first base, and on Monday he slammed his helmet into the ground in frustration after flying out to end the eighth inning of a 7-0 loss to Milwaukee. Both incidents drew boos from the Wrigley Field fans. Read the rest of this entry »

Cade Horton gave up a run on Wednesday night. Kind of. He was charged with a run because he exited the game with two men on base, but it was Andrew Kittredge who allowed the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sea-skimming missile that brought the run home. Not to criticize Kittredge; the odd 111.8-mph double is an occupational hazard of pitching to Vladito.

That run was the first one Horton had surrendered in five starts since the All-Star Break; taking things back to his final outing before the Midsummer Classic, Horton’s scoreless streak had run to 29 innings. In those five starts, Horton has allowed 11 hits total, only one of them for extra bases.

As for his most recent start, I don’t think Horton or the Cubs will be too broken up about the inherited runner. Not only did Chicago win the game, but also Horton set a new career high with eight strikeouts and made the Blue Jays wait until the sixth inning for their first hit. Read the rest of this entry »

Before they fell into the turbulent wake of the white-hot Brewers, the Cubs were flirting with the best record in baseball for much of the season. You know the highlights: Pete Crow-Armstrong flies through the air and smacks homers. Kyle Tucker is a superstar making a name for himself before hitting free agency. Michael Busch is having a mini-breakout of his own. Seiya Suzuki is a consistent power threat. Dansby Swanson is a metronome in the form of a glove-first shortstop.

You can keep naming names for quite a while, in fact, before you get to the Cubs’ two longest-tenured hitters. Ian Happ debuted way back in 2017. He’s transitioned from a superutility role to the corner outfield while featuring in the middle of the lineup for nearly a decade, a first-division regular though rarely an All-Star. He’s not the focus of today’s article, though. That would be the other longest-tenured Cub, Nico Hoerner.

Hoerner got a cup of coffee at the end of the 2019 season, played a bench role in 2020, and got injured repeatedly just as he seemed to be settling in as a starter in 2021. He’s been a locked-in everyday guy ever since, at shortstop for a year and then at second after Swanson signed with the team in free agency. And between a succession of newer and more exciting Cubs debuting and the jack-of-all-trades nature of his game, Hoerner’s stardom is often overlooked. But overlooked or not, Hoerner is a star, and so I thought I’d examine his consistent excellence as he churns through yet another quietly outstanding season. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs approached the trade deadline with pitching as their top priority. They traded for Michael Soroka on Wednesday to shore up the starting rotation and added Andrew Kittredge to the bullpen later that night. That didn’t stop them from making a trade to improve their hitters: Getting in on the Twins’ Thursday fire sale, Chicago acquired utilityman Willi Castro for two pitching prospects, Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong. And right before the buzzer, the Cubs also acquired left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers from the Pirates for outfield prospect Ivan Brethowr. This was the second swap Rogers was part of within a roughly 27-hour span, after he went from the Reds to the Pirates in Wednesday afternoon’s Ke’Bryan Hayes deal.

The Cubs have one of the best lineups in baseball. They lead the majors in runs scored and the National League in wRC+. So they didn’t necessarily need to upgrade their offense before the deadline. Castro’s calling card is his versatility, and that’s the primary reason they acquired him. Just this year, he’s played every position but catcher and first base. Defensively, he’s probably a little in over his head at either of the premium up-the-middle positions — his career FRV at shortstop is -3 and -2 in center field — but he’s perfectly acceptable as a second baseman (2 FRV) or in either outfield corner (5 in left, -2 in right). In previous years, he was also slightly above average at third (2 FRV) before taking a step back this season (-3), though small-sample caveats certainly apply for his defensive metrics at any specific position because of how much he’s moved around. Only once has he logged more than 500 innings at an individual position in a season, and that was back in 2021 when he played 713 2/3 innings at second base with the Tigers.

That said, he is way more than just a multi-positional backup. At the plate, Castro has been solidly above average since joining the Twins in 2023; during those first seasons in Minnesota, he posted a combined 107 wRC+ and accumulated 5.4 WAR. This season, his offensive production has been slightly better — .245/.335/.407, 109 wRC+ — than in recent years because he’s tapping into his power more. He’s already smacked 10 home runs in 344 plate appearances after hitting a career-high 12 last year across nearly 300 more trips to the plate. That he is a switch-hitter only adds to his flexibility. He has been platoon neutral for his career, but he’s hitting left-handed hurlers much better this year (131 wRC+) than he has righties (100). Castro has been worth 1.1 WAR this season, a step back from his last two years despite his offensive improvements because his defensive value has declined. Some of this is due to a dip in his defensive metrics — his only plus position this season by FRV is left field — but it also has to do with the positional adjustment, as he’s spent more innings this season at positions further down the defensive spectrum; after playing 465 2/3 innings at shortstop in 2024 and another 211 1/3 in center field, he’s logged just 26 at shortstop this year to go along with a one-inning cameo in center. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a big deadline for relief pitchers, even for teams that aren’t operating in the Mason Miller or Jhoan Duran tier. The Orioles bullpen continues to get picked over like a charcuterie board: Andrew Kittredge is Chicago-bound, with the Cubs sending Wilfri De La Cruz the other way.

The Tigers beefed up their bullpen by picking up Paul Sewald from the Guardians in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. A few hours later, Detroit sent minor league pitchers Josh Randall and R.J. Sales to Washington for Kyle Finnegan and added Codi Heuer from Texas for minor league depth. Finally, the Dodgers are bringing Brock Stewart back from Minnesota, with James Outman going in the other direction.

Let’s take those in order. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs sit just one game back of the Brewers in the NL Central, but the two division rivals exist as almost perfect inverses of one another when it comes to on-field performance. Chicago ranks second in wRC+ at 117 and 15th in ERA- at 98, while Milwaukee ranks 13th in wRC+ at 102 and fifth in ERA- at 89. Their common ground is on defense, where both teams are top three in defensive value.

Coming off a series loss against the Brewers and with the trade deadline bearing down, the Cubs added some depth to their weaker side of the ball on Wednesday by acquiring pitcher Michael Soroka from the Nationals. Soroka will be a free agent at the end of this year, after signing a one-year $9 million dollar deal with the Nats last December. In return, Washington received Triple-A outfielder Christian Franklin, Chicago’s fourth-round pick in 2021, and 18 year-old shortstop Ronny Cruz, whom the Cubs selected in the third round of the 2024 draft. Read the rest of this entry »

At the outset of Sunday’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony in Cooperstown, chairman of the board Jane Forbes Clark invoked the words of 2005 honoree Ryne Sandberg, who was not among the 52 returning Hall of Famers onstage for the festivities:

“As I have said many times before, the National Baseball Hall of Fame is an extraordinary place, and no one has described our game and what the Hall of Fame means better than Ryne Sandberg, Chicago Cubs legend and member of the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2005,” began Clark. “During his induction speech, he said, ‘The reason I am here, they tell me, is that I played the game a certain way, that I played the game the way it was supposed to be played. I don’t know about that, but I do know this: I had too much respect for the game to play it any other way. And if there is a single reason I am here today, it is because of one word: Respect.'”

As she continued, Clark’s voice audibly cracked, but she pushed through. “There is not a man seated behind me this afternoon who didn’t play the game the same way Ryno did. It is that respect, character, sportsmanship, integrity, and excellence that leads to just one percent of those that have ever played major league baseball to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.”

Her message — which referenced the Hall’s own voting rules, the so-called “character clause” — was evergreen, but the absence of Sandberg, who had attended the last two induction ceremonies, was conspicuous. So was Clark’s display of emotion, and now we know why. Sandberg, who was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January 2024, died on Monday at age 65. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we turn our attention to some chilly performances at the hot corner. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

The Cubs began the season with 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, but he struggled out of the gate, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day through April 14 before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the bulk of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner spotting there as well before Shaw was recalled on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie got hot upon returning, but struggled in June before starting July in a 1-for-27 funk; he is now batting just .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. While he’s underperformed relative to his expected stats (including a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph average exit velocity places him in the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit rate in the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine in the days leading up to the All-Star break, making one start and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ last five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a little breather here.” Read the rest of this entry »