BOSTON — The Cleveland Guardians drafted Parker Messick 54th overall in 2022, and the decision to do so is looking increasingly shrewd. Since making his major league debut on August 20, the 24-year-old southpaw out of Florida State University has taken the mound five times and fashioned a 1.84 ERA and a 2.50 FIP over 29 1/3 innings. And while his 18.3% strikeout rate in the majors isn’t impressive, Messick fanned 29.1% of batters prior to his call-up, suggesting the strikeout stuff is still to come. When Eric Longenhagen wrote about Messick in late May, he pointed out that the lefty “leads the minors in strikeouts since 2023.”

What makes Messick effective is a combination of factors that belie his pedestrian velocity and lack of an elite breaking ball. As our lead prospect analyst explained when ranking the 50-FV prospect fourth in the Guardians system, “Messick’s 92-mph fastball doesn’t have a ton of carry to it, but it does run uphill and can garner whiffs via its angle.” Eric went on to write that his “changeup is at least plus.”

Messick considers his changeup to be his best pitch.

“I would say that it is,” Messick told me when Cleveland played in Boston earlier this month. “As far as swing-and-miss goes, yeah. When it’s paired right with my other stuff — when I’m tunneling it off of my other pitches — is when it is at its best. It does have some sharp movement down at the end, I guess. It also has just enough speed differential to get that swing-and-miss at the bottom when they’re out in front of it.” Read the rest of this entry »

Cam Schlittler was on the doorstep of the big leagues when he led Sunday Notes on the penultimate day of June. Just 10 days later, the 24-year-old right-hander took the mound at Yankee Stadium against the Seattle Mariners and earned a win in his MLB debut. He’s been a presence in New York’s rotation ever since. In 11 starts for the pinstripers, Schlittler has a 3-3 record to go with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.73 FIP over 56 solid innings.

The 98-mph cut-ride fastball that Schlittler addressed in the article has been his most prominent pitch. Thrown at a 56.2% clip, it has elicited a .202 BAA and just a .298 slug. Augmenting the high-octane heater are a quartet of secondaries — none of which is the offering he planned to add to his arsenal this season.

“When I talked to you in the spring, I was working on a splitter,” Schlittler told me at Fenway Park on Friday. “But I just couldn’t figure it out. I didn’t want to go into the season competing with something I wasn’t really comfortable throwing, so I stopped throwing it.”

The 2022 seventh-round pick Northeastern University product began this season in Double-A, where he attacked hitters with the aforementioned fastball, a sweeper, and a curveball. He introduced a cutter — “metrically, it’s kind of in-between a slider and a cutter” — in his final start before being promoted to Triple-A in early June. He’s since added a two-seamer, giving him a pitch he can use to bore in on righties.

Which brings us back to the shelved splitter. Why does the young hurler feel that he wasn’t able to master the pitch? Read the rest of this entry »

Data Scientist

Location: Cleveland, Ohio, United States

Primary Purpose

The Cleveland Guardians Baseball Research & Development (R&D) group is seeking to hire Data Scientists at a variety of experience levels, including senior, entry-level, and intern/fellow. In this role, you will work alongside the rest of the R&D group to transform a treasure trove of scientific data (e.g., box scores, bat/ball/player tracking, video, biomechanics) into an information pipeline that helps us acquire better players, improve those players, and equip our coaches and players to emerge victorious.

The Cleveland Guardians strongly prefer our teammates to reside in Cleveland, Ohio. Exceptional candidates may be considered for remote work. We can also be flexible on start dates.

Essential Duties & Responsibilities

• Building statistical and/or machine learning models to guide player acquisitions, player development philosophy, and Major League decision-making.
• Developing models for the movements and forces governing human motion and its subsequent impact on bat/ball trajectories.
• Creating tools, prototypes, and visualizations that connect R&D insights to coaches, players, and baseball operations staff.
• Communicating complex ideas clearly to both technical and non-technical audiences, including executives, coaches, and players.

Data Scientists in our R&D group apply quantitative methods to make the Cleveland Guardians better on the field. Depending on your skills and interests, your work may include:

Education & Experience

• Degree or demonstrated experience in a quantitative field (e.g., Statistics, Computer Science, Mathematics, Economics, Biomechanics, or Engineering).
• Proficiency in programming languages such as Python or R for data analysis and modeling.
• Ability to clearly communicate complex ideas to others in both written and verbal form.
• Collaborative and able to succeed in a team-oriented environment.
• Commitment to continuous learning and solving challenging problems.

Job Skills

We are looking for a variety of skillsets. If you have experience with one or more of the following areas, you may be who we are looking for:

Statistical Modeling

• Advanced statistical methods (e.g., fixed effects, random effects, generalized additive models).
• Bayesian statistics and probabilistic programming languages (e.g., Stan).
• Database languages such as SQL.

Machine Learning and AI

• Large language models (LLMs).
• Deep learning frameworks (e.g., TensorFlow, Torch).
• High-dimensional and/or spatiotemporal data.

Domain-Specific Expertise

• Research in a sports context (baseball is a plus).
• Biomechanics software such as OpenSim and Visual3D.
• Game theory applied in real-world contexts.

At the Cleveland Guardians, we are all about creating an environment that brings out the best in everyone. It is a big part of who we are, how we compete, and how we make an impact in our community. We want every employee to feel like they truly belong here.

We also know that people sometimes hesitate to apply for jobs unless they check every single box on the qualifications list. We’re looking for the best person for the job, and we know that you might bring skills and experiences that aren’t exactly listed but could be a huge asset to our team. So, if this role excites you, we encourage you to apply, even if you don’t meet every single qualification.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Cleveland Guardians.

A Player’s View piece that ran here at FG a month ago was one of my favorites to put together all season. Entertaining as well as informative — good anecdotes were in abundance — it was self-explanatorily titled: Pitchers Weigh In On Their Catch Play Partners (Some Are Nasty). As evidenced within, a casual tossing of baseballs back and forth is far from what is actually happening.

Last weekend, I learned that Bubba Chandler has scratched Paul Skenes from his partners list.

“We’ve trained together the last two off-seasons, and we’ve played catch,” the Pittsburgh Pirates rookie told me. “I don’t want to give him his flowers, but my vision isn’t great, and he’s a guy who throws hard and his pitches move a lot. The eyes can’t really keep up with the ball. And then you’re throwing in 50-degree weather with clouds and a light mist — or maybe it’s a super-bright day — and you can’t see it. And he’s just freaking ripping it. I’ll never play catch with him again.

“I got friggin’ popped in Baton Rouge this year, and that was actually indoors,” continued Chandler. “He threw his stupid sinker, and it didn’t sink. It rose off the top of my glove, right to my shoulder. So yeah, I’ll never do it again.”

As is common for starters, Chandler typically does his in-season catch play with a bullpen catcher — a breed whose job requirements make catching most anyone a comparable piece of cake. But what about other pitchers? Is Chandler an easy partner, or someone best to avoid?

“Throughout the week I’m an easy catch-play, but the day before I pitch, I let it eat a little bit,” said the righty, whose heater flirts with triple digits. “It’s not a lot of volume, maybe just 20-25 throws, but that’s the day I throw hard and it moves pretty good. I assume guys don’t want to play catch with me on that day.”

Chandler, who has made three relief appearances since being called up in late August, is scheduled to make his first MLB start this afternoon.

———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Eddie Mathews went 18 for 36 against Moe Drabowsky.

Carl Yastrzemski went 10 for 16 against Bill Gogolewski.

Greg Luzinski went 15 for 34 against Andy Messersmith.

Bill Mazeroski went 20 for 50 against Don Nottebart.

Ted Kluszewski went 23 for 50 against Warren Hacker.

———

Pete Crow-Armstrong was a high-profile prospect when I approached him on the back fields of the Chicago Cubs spring training complex in 2023. The young outfielder’s thoughts on his development as a hitter is what I were after, and one of the things he said in our relatively brief conversation stood out: “I feel like you’re probably going to ask me about the power.”

Two-and a-half years later, PCA, as he is affectionally called by Cubs fans, has 28 home runs and a .496 slugging percentage in his second full season in the big leagues. With that in mind, I reminded him of what he had said to me in Mesa. Looking back, was he self-conscious, or perhaps a little defensive, about his power potential?

“That was kind of the topic of conversation in my offensive game at the time,’ Crow-Armstrong told me at Wrigley Filed on Friday. “I was very prepared to be approached about the lack of power. What everybody always wanted to talk about was how my hitting was like… I think that everybody knew that I could play defense, but everybody was always more skeptical about my bat. Rightfully so. So, I was always prepared to answer questions about what was lacking in my offensive game.”

Crow-Armstrong had also told me in our back-fields exchange that his power has “always been there.” Does he have more now than he did in the minors?

“I feel like I’ve developed into my power,” he said to that question. “I have the same wiry strength, but you’re seeing the natural evolution of a growing human being that’s gotten better at what he does.”

———

A quiz:

Nolan Ryan (at age 44, in 1991) is the oldest MLB pitcher to throw a no-hitter, while Amos Rusie (at age 20, in 1891) is the youngest. The next four youngest pitchers threw theirs between 1901-1912.

Who is the youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter in the past 100 seasons? (A hint: he won a Cy Young award and three World Series rings.)

———

NEWS NOTES

Rich Hinton, a left-hander who appeared in 116 games while playing for five teams from 1971-1979, died recently at age 78 (per Newsweek). Pitching primarily with the Chicago White Sox, Hinton was credited with nine wins and three saves.

Davey Johnson died yesterday at age 82. A highly-successful manager following his playing days, the second baseman made four All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves while strapping on the cleats from 1965-1978. Primarily a Baltimore Oriole, Johnson hit 43 home runs for the Atlanta Braves in 1973.

———

The answer to the quiz is Vida Blue, who threw a no-hitter in September 1970, 55 days after his 21st birthday. If you guessed Wilson Alvarez, his August 1991 no-hitter came 140 days after his 21st birthday.

———

Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt was asked about Fenway Park’s outfield dimensions prior to this past Monday’s holiday matinee in Boston, and as do many managers, he pointed not to the Green Monster, but rather to the large expanse on the other side of the diamond.

“It’s like a center field in right field,” Vogt told a cadre of reporters. “There are so many cool nooks and crannies. That’s why I love baseball. Not one field is the same. But yeah, we’ve got to get our work in. Even though it’s a day game, we’ve got to come out get looks and understand what we’re dealing with.”

I had a question for Vogt regarding the opponents the Guardians have had to deal with. Which is the best team you’ve played so far this season?

“That’s a good question,” Vogt replied. “I’m stumped here. The Dodgers are obviously… when we played the Dodgers it was a really good team. But I have so much respect for everybody. There are so many really, really good teams out there. So yeah. I don’t know.”

The Guardians lost two of three games when they hosted the Dodgers in late May.

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Munetaka Murakami has 18 home runs and a 246 wRC+ over 152 plate appearances in his return to action following an oblique injury (which was preceded by elbow surgery last winter). The 25-year-old Tokyo Yakult Swallows slugger is considered a strong candidate to be posted following the NPB season.

Sung-mun Song is slashing .314/.389/.528 with 24 home runs and a 149 wRC+ over 581 plate appearances with the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The recently-turned-29-year-old third baseman/second baseman has reportedly asked to be posted following this season.

Cody Ponce broke the KBO’s single-season strikeout record this past week. The 31-year-old Hanwha Eagles right-hander has fanned 228 batters while going 16-0 with a 1.76 ERA over 163-and-two-thirds innings. Ponce went 1-7 with a 5.86 ERA pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020-2021.

Eric Stout is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA over 113-and-two-thirds innings for the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s TSG Hawks. The 32-year-old left-hander out of Butler University appeared in 23 games for three MLB teams, mostly the Pirates, from 2018-2022.

———

A random obscure former player snapshot:

Gene Hiser’s lone big-league home run was especially memorable. Batting with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning and the Chicago Cubs trailing the New York Mets by a count of 3-2, the outfielder cleared the right field fence at Wrigley Field to send the game to extras. The home team then walked off the June 19, 1973 contest in the 10th on a Jose Cardenal single that plated Billy Williams.

The rest of Hiser’s career wasn’t much to write home about. All told, the University of Maryland product played in 206 games for the Cubs from 1971-1975, logging 53 hits and a 45 wRC+. He did have success against a Hall of Famer. Hiser went 3-for-8 against St. Louis Cardinals legend Bob Gibson.

———

Eric Binder plays a key role in Cleveland’s pitching-development program, as well as in the organization’s draft decisions. I recently asked the assistant general manager for his thoughts on a pair of 19-year-old pitchers whom the Guardians selected in last year’s amateur draft.

“A young right-hander starter who recently transitioned from [the Arizona Complex League] to Lynchburg,” Binder said of Joey Oakie, who was selected 84th-overall out of Ankeny, Iowa’s Centennial High School. “High velocity. A fastball that we’re all excited about. How his delivery operates and with the profiles we’re seeing out of hand, he’s creating an interesting demand on the hitter with how that gets pieced together.

“Another guy from last year’s draft class,” Binder said of Braylon Doughty, who was taken 36th-overall out of Temecula, California’s Chaparral High School. “He broke with the Lynchburg team out of spring training. An incredible athlete, and you see that translate to his delivery. Some natural feel to create a lot of different shapes, with plus underlying spin traits. A natural strike thrower. We’re really excited to see him progress with us, as well.”

Doughty — seventh on our updated Guardians list, with a 45+ — has a 3.48 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over 85-and-a-third innings with Lynchburg. Oakie — 23rd on our list, with a 40+ FV — has a 5.31 ERA, a 4.59 FIP, and a 26.8% strikeout rate over 54-and-a-thirds between the AZL and Lynchburg. Topping out at 99 mph, Oakie has fanned 22 batters and allowed just one hit over nine-and-two-thirds innings in his last two outings.

———

FARM NOTES

Kendall George has a most-in-the-minors 101 stolen bases (in 125 attempts) to go with a .295/.409/.370 slash line, three home runs, and a 131 wRC+ over 514 plate appearances for the High-A Great Lakes Loons. No. 25 on our updated Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list with a 40 FV, the 20-year-old outfielder was drafted 36th overall last year out of Humble, Texas’s Atascocita High School.

Gabriel Gonzalez is slashing .329/.397/.508 with 13 home runs and a 148 wRC+ over 510 plate appearances across three levels. Currently with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, the 21-year-old outfielder was acquired by the Minnesota Twins from the Seattle Mariners as part of the January 2024 Jorge Polanco trade. Gonzalez is No. 9 in our updated Twins rankings, with a 45 FV.

Micah Ashman has a 1.95 ERA, a 1.55 FIP, and a 33.5% strikeout rate over 55-and-a-third innings between High-A and Double-A. An 11th-round pick last year out of the University of Utah, the 23-year-old left-hander was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Charlie Morton at this summer’s trade deadline.

The Midwest League’s West Michigan Whitecaps have the best record in the minors at 90-39. The Detroit Tigers’ High-A affiliate has a plus-289 run differential.

The Dayton Dragons (High-A Cincinnati Reds) won 15 consecutive games before losing to the Lansing Lugnuts 5-4 on Thursday night. The Dragons have the Midwest League’s worst record at 51-76, and a minus-114 run differential.

———

Kenya Huggins was caught by surprise when he learned that he’d been dealt from the Reds to the Athletics at this summer’s trade deadline. A fourth-round pick by Cincinnati in 2002 out of Chipola Junior College, the 22-year-old right-hander was eating a bowl of cereal when he received the news.

“It’s the craziest experience I’ve ever had,” said Huggins, who has been with High-A Lansing since changing organizations. “It’s funny, we were actually playing here [at West Michigan]. I had just gotten promoted to Dayton, and I was going to be pitching the next day. My manager pulled me into the office and said, ‘Hey, I need to talk to you.’ I was like, ‘Cool, let’s go chat.’ I was eating a bowl of Cap’n Crunch. Had just come in from shagging. Just a regular day. No problem.

“So, I go in the office,” continued Huggins. “He told me, ‘Hey, I wanted to let you know before you look at your phone that you’ve been traded for a big-leaguer. Miguel Andujar is going to the Reds and you’ll be heading to the Athletics.’ At that moment, I had no words. All I could say was, ‘I appreciate you.’”

The hard-throwing native of New Orleans appreciates his breakfast cereal, as well. I learned as much when I asked if he finished the bowl of Cap’n Crunch.

“Yeah, I finished it,” Huggins replied with a smile. “I drank the milk, took in the information, and that was that.”

Huggins has a 3.81 ERA and a 3.80 FIP over 78 innings on the season. He is No. 13 with a 40+ FV in our latest A’s prospect rankings.

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At NBC News, David K. Li looked at how the Women’s Professional Baseball League aims to make the most significant impact on women’s baseball since the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League, which operated from 1943 to 1954.

Former Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos is pitching for the KBO’s LG Twins this season. Jee-ho Yoo wrote about him for Yonhap News Agency.

MLB.com’s Matthew Leach wrote about Minnesota Twins prospect Kala’i Rosario, who has 25 home runs and 25 steals for Double-A Wichita Wind Surge.

MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler introduced us to a prolific songwriter who has recorded hundreds of baseball tunes, many of them about specific MLB players.

Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy is 70 years old and in the last year of his contract. Is this his swan song? Barry Bloom delved into the question at Sportico.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester is 11-0 with a 2.79 ERA since May 30. The Brewers have won all 17 games he’s appeared in since that time.

A good note from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Friday afternoon: “The wind is blowing out at Wrigley for just the 16th time in 68 games this season. Teams have combined to average 12.9 runs per game when it blows out, compared to seven when it blows in.

Luis Arraez recorded his 1,000th career hit earlier this week. The three-time batting champ currently has 1,005 hits, including 221 extra-base hits, as well as 224 walks and 211 strikeouts.

Freddie Freeman has 938 extra-base hits, the most among active players. He is tied with Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews for 58th all-time in that category.

Rafael Devers has 16 home runs and a 136 wRC+ in 70 games with the San Francisco Giants. He had 15 home runs and a 144 wRC+ in 73 games with the Boston Red Sox prior to being traded in June.

Ichiro Suzuki and Troy Tulowitzki went a combined 0-for-28 against Ryan Vogelsong. Omar Infante and Billy Hamilton went a combined 13-for-19 against Vogelsong.

On today’s date in 1971, Mickey Lolich went the distance to run his record to 23-10 as the Detoit Tigers blanked the Washington Senators 3-0 at RFK Stadium. Lolich finished the season 25-14 with a 2.92 ERA over 376 innings. He threw complete games in 29 of his 45 starts.

The Boston Braves swept a doubleheader from the Brooklyn Dodgers on today’s date in 1948, winning by scores of 2-1 and 4-0. Warren Spahn went the distance in the 14-inning opener, then Johnny Sain threw a complete game of his own while throwing half as many frames. The nightcap was called on account of darkness after the Dodgers batted in the top of the seventh.

Players born on today’s date include John Pawlowski, a right-hander who made eight relief appearances for the Chicago White Sox across the 1987-1988 seasons. A longtime college coach following his playing career, Pawlowski was on the winning end of his lone decision, the W coming courtesy of a Carlton Fisk walk-off home run against Oakland’s Eric Plunk.

Also born on today’s date was Stan Pawloski, an infielder whose big-league career comprised two games and one hit in eight at-bats for the Cleveland Indians in 1955. The Wanamie, Pennsylvania native spent nine seasons on the farm, the first of them with the 1949 Stroudsburg Poconos, a team that went 101-36 before going on to top the Peekskill Highlanders in the North Atlantic League championship series.

Tanner Bibee is having a down season. While he’s thrown a team-high 154 2/3 innings, the Cleveland Guardians right-hander has a 4.77 ERA and a 4.69 FIP, as well as a career-low 20.6% strikeout rate. Over the previous two seasons — his first two in the majors — he’d tossed 315 2/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA, a 3.54 FIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate. Something has clearly been amiss.

Bibee believes that he knows what the issue has been; how to right himself during the season is the question at hand. With less than a month left on the schedule and the Guardians still holding out hope for October baseball — their playoff odds are a faint, but not impossible, 4.6% — Bibee can’t wait until the winter to get right. Much for that reason, he worked diligently in a bullpen session on Wednesday afternoon at Fenway Park, after which he expounded on his efforts to return to what he’s been at his best.

———

David Laurila: We talked a few days after you made your big league debut (in April 2023). How do you compare to the pitcher you were then?

Tanner Bibee: “Stuff-wise?”

Laurila: Stuff. How you approach the game. You’re two years older and presumably smarter now.

Bibee: “That doesn’t always mean better. It’s been an interesting first couple of years in the big leagues. I obviously had a lot of success in 2023. I had some success last year after a rough month or two. This year has definitely been… I’ve been through different movement patterns. In ’23, I came in with a really high slot, then kind of slowly got it back down.”

Laurila: Purposefully, or did that happen organically? Read the rest of this entry »

Lake Bachar was a kicker at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater before turning his full attention to baseball. He had a good leg. An all-conference performer, Bachar booted three field goals in the 2014 NCAA Division III championship game, a 43-34 Warhawks win over the Mount Union Raiders. Along with being a place kicker, he served as the team’s punter and kickoff specialist across his three collegiate seasons on the gridiron.

How good was he in his other sport?

“I was decent,” said Bachar, who now pitches out of the bullpen for the Miami Marlins. “I don’t know about NFL kicker, but at that time I was going to try do whatever I could to at least go to a [tryout] camp. The longest field goal I kicked in practice was 68 [yards] — good conditions, and all that — and the longest in a game was either high 40s or low 50s.”

Baseball has turned out to be a good career choice, although it took him awhile to reach the majors. Drafted by the San Diego Padres in 2016, the fifth-rounder was 29 years old when he debuted with the Marlins last September. His first full big-league season has been impressive. Over 43 relief appearances, the right-hander has a 5-1 record and a pair of saves to go with his 3.39 ERA and 3.77 FIP over 58-and-a-third innings. His strikeout rate is a solid 26.7%.

Selected off waivers by Miami shortly before his debut, Bachar attributes his late-bloomer breakthrough to “being in the right place at the right time,” as well as some fine-tuning of his pitches. A four-seamer that gets ride-run and a splitter that he’s thrown since 2020 comprise half of his arsenal. The other offerings are breakers new to this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. August is a month I like to use for rest and recovery. After the chaos of July, there’s a natural lull in the season before the drama of September. Both deadline buyers and sellers are figuring out their new rosters and allocating playing time to new arrivals and minor league call-ups. No race is down to the wire, and yet many races are already decided. That’s a great time to relax – and what I like to do to relax is watch baseball. This week’s set of five things doesn’t have a lot of pivotal plays or playoff squads on the brink. It doesn’t have walk-offs or game-ending defensive plays. It’s just guys doing cool things, and sometimes that’s the best part of baseball. So with a quick programming note – Five Things is off next week while I go to the US Open – and a nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer, let’s get started.

1. Ultimate Reversals
In an 0-2 count in his first start off the IL, Hunter Greene lost control of a fastball:

Hey, it happens. It was an 0-2 count, so no big deal, get ‘em next pitch. Only, wait, something was going on:

Hit… by pitch? I’m not sure anyone at the plate was sure what happened. J.T. Realmuto said something to umpire Carlos Torres. Torres thought about it and then eventually awarded Realmuto first base. Tyler Stephenson went full John Travolta behind home plate, looking around in vain for someone to make this make sense to him.

How did Reds manager Terry Francona feel about this? The same way I did, and the same way you do right now, presumably:

When the first slow-motion replay came in, everything started to make a little more sense:

Realmuto wasn’t hit by the pitch; his bat was. It’s an easy overturn. Why didn’t anyone notice? Well, Stephenson had his eyes closed and his glove blocked Torres’ view of the butt of Realmuto’s bat. No one noticed the deflection right away either; after all, Stephenson stuck up his glove trying to catch it and the ball landed in the mitt.

The replay review was short and conclusive. The call on the field was overturned; instead of a hit-by-pitch, it was a foul ball. Only, that’s not quite right – there were two strikes. The ball landed in Stephenson’s mitt after making contact with the bat. That’s a textbook foul tip strikeout. Instead of strolling to first base, Realmuto trudged back to the dugout.

There have only been five other HBP-to-strikeout overturns in the replay review era. I watched video of all of them. The one this week was the strangest. Here’s AJ Pollock getting “hit” by Tyler Chatwood in the first one I found:

See the umpire’s quick and decisive reaction? That’s normal. Call a dead ball, determine what happened, point to first to signal a hit-by-pitch – it’s standard operating procedure. Torres didn’t even call a dead ball, because he didn’t realize he needed to.

In fact, I think Realmuto might have inadvertently done this to himself. It’s feasible that if he didn’t say anything to Torres, that would have just been a ball. No one saw the ball deflect off the bat in real time, and it was such a glancing blow that no one seemed to hear it. You can tell because of their reactions; Torres doesn’t call the ball dead right away and Stephenson definitely has no idea what’s going on. Also? Change this rule! That has to be one of the hardest-luck strikeouts of all time.

2. Coordination
Jung Hoo Lee’s second year in San Francisco has gone much better than his first. He’s healthy, for one thing: After an injury limited him to just 158 plate appearances in 2024, he’s been active for the entire season and has already crested 500 plate appearances this year. He’s improved across the board offensively, flashing gap-to-gap power and consistently working counts and avoiding strikeouts. It’s been more of a struggle defensively, where he’s been somewhere between blah (per OAA) and quite poor (per DRS and Baseball Prospectus’ DRP). It’s tough having your fielding compared to the ridiculous monsters who roam center these days. But how many of them can do this?

What’s that, you say? That was a standard play, catch probability 99%? The wind looked a little swirly, which made it slightly more difficult, but you’re not wrong. Lee took a meandering route to the ball and still had time to flatten his route and more or less come to a complete stop to judge the wind; he probably could have caught it standing up if he’d gotten a better read initially. That’s all true! But wait for the reveal:

It’s like a magic trick, pulling a coin out from behind a kindergartener’s ear only in baseball form. Oh, you’d expect the ball to be in my glove? No, of course it’s somewhere else. See, the ball actually kicked out of Lee’s glove, but he made a spectacular instinctual adjustment:

Lee’s right leg made that entire play. He lunged and missed with his hand, the normal thing you’d use to catch a baseball. For most players, that would be the end of the play. But Lee somehow flipped his hips to get in position, drove his right knee past the ball without bumping it away, and then pincered it into the hollow between his knees to protect it from falling to the ground.

Don’t try this at home. I say that out of personal experience – my dog looked at me funny for about five minutes while I tried to replicate it on my living room floor. There’s no practicing or teaching this. No one works on it in spring training. For nearly every outfielder in baseball, the play would have been over after it kicked out of their glove. Lee might be a below-average outfielder when you take the sum of his defensive contributions into consideration. His coordination and ability to make last-minute adjustments, though? It’s certifiably excellent.

3. Necessity
Ryan O’Hearn doesn’t face lefties. In his entire Orioles career – 1,223 plate appearances – he faced only 137 lefties. It’s no secret why: He posted an 89 wRC+ against them, as compared to a 126 wRC+ against righties. That’s a huge platoon split, more than double the major league average for lefties. The O’s had a surfeit of righty platoon options, and even this year, when O’Hearn put up his best season yet, they generally didn’t let him face lefties, and he hit poorly against them when he did get the chance.

In theory, the Padres are similarly capable of sheltering O’Hearn. They’ve only given him six plate appearances against lefties, and they’ve pretty much all been out of necessity rather than desire. Your bench isn’t always as full as you’d like, the other team can sneak in lefty relievers at almost any time late in the game, and no hitter avoids facing lefties altogether. In fact, the Padres have given him those opportunities at about the same rate as the O’s. But let’s just say he’s not hitting southpaws quite so poorly with San Diego:

That’s 4-5 with a walk, and all four hits have gone for extra bases. It’s far too small of a sample to make substantive conclusions, of course, but O’Hearn has already socked as many homers against lefties in a Padres uniform as he did in Baltimore, where he played for 20 times as long.

The last one, a two-run blast against All-Star Robbie Ray, came after Mike Shildt pinch-hit with O’Hearn against a lefty. It wasn’t exactly a normal decision – Jake Cronenworth was hit in the hand in his previous plate appearance, and while he played the field afterwards, he didn’t appear to be capable of swinging a bat. Since the Padres had already juiced their lineup with righties against Ray, the only bench hitter with a platoon advantage was Elias Díaz, and your light-hitting backup catcher isn’t a real pinch-hitting option. O’Hearn was the logical play even if “pinch-hit with the guy we never let face lefties against a dominant lefty” isn’t normally a good decision.

So, is O’Hearn suddenly a lefty killer? I don’t think so, but I definitely hope so. The Padres are going to run into many more chances to either let O’Hearn hit against a lefty or replace him with an inferior hitter (Jose Iglesias? Bryce Johnson?) who stands on the other side of the plate. Previously, the decision has rarely been interesting – get the righty in there. In the last 20 days, though, O’Hearn is making it hard to pull him from the game. Yes, it’s six plate appearances. Sure, that’s not how sample sizes work. But since coming to the Padres, he’s slashing .800/.833/2.400 against lefties. Can you really turn that down in favor of Candelita? It’s gonna be a great subplot to watch down the stretch.

4. Thievery
Alejandro Kirk doesn’t steal bases. In his entire minor league career, he swiped five bags, all in 2018 and 2019. He’s never so much as attempted one at the major league level. He’s listed at 5-foot-8 and 245 pounds, kind of the reverse of a prototypical base stealing frame. His 24.2 ft/sec sprint speed is in the second percentile league-wide. Could you, personally, beat Alejandro Kirk in a footrace? Probably not, but it’s at least closer than it would be for pretty much every other major leaguer.

Anyway, here’s Alejandro Kirk stealing a base:

This play was a perfect storm of pro-stealing factors. With only one out and a runner on third in a one-run game, the Rangers infield was all the way in. That meant Jake Burger couldn’t hold Kirk on first base because he was off the line and on the grass. It wasn’t a big deal, though. Is there a runner less important to hold on than the guy with 2,000 plate appearances and zero stolen base attempts? Meanwhile, with Daulton Varsho on third base, Kyle Higashioka had no interest in throwing down to second and letting Varsho maraud home. The Rangers knew there was no throw coming to second. Look at their positioning with the ball already in Higashioka’s glove:

In other words, they were more or less daring Kirk to go. Why wouldn’t they? Kirk batted 1,946 times before attempting his first steal. Second place in the majors for most plate appearances without attempting one? Spencer Horwitz with 723. The post-integration record for career plate appearances without a stolen base attempt is 2,224, by Johnny Estrada from 2001-2008. Very few batters reach 1,000 plate appearances without trying to steal at least once. Kirk was a true standout in his field of standing around.

Now he’s got a swipe in his back pocket. Estrada’s record is safe; the odds of Horwitz getting to that milestone are negligible. He’s not even a catcher! But more importantly, Kirk is on the board. He tried to act casual after stealing the base, but the crowd wouldn’t let it go (the Jays posted that it was his first career stolen base on the scoreboard). You know you’ve done something fun when you get Max Scherzer to react like this:

5. Pratfalls With Happy Endings
If your only understanding of outfield defense came from this column, you might think that falling over was a key part of the job:

Sorry for the camera angle; it’s all both broadcasts had. But in any case, what a disaster. You can’t fall down there. That’s Alek Freaking Thomas on the basepaths. He’s maniacally aggressive and has the speed to make it work; he’s 10 runs above average on the basepaths in his career even without taking stolen bases (he’s not a great base stealer) into account. He was on his horse right away and had eyes on home plate. Watch Thomas clock what’s going on in center, pick up third base coach Shaun Larkin waving him on, and book it home:

Wait, what? He got thrown out?!? Yeah, and by a lot, as it turns out. See, Angel Martínez fell, but it was fairly graceful as falls go. He didn’t lose the ball, didn’t panic, and was back on his feet quickly to toss in the relay. It took him about a second-and-a-half to recover, which isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than staying down or losing his grip:

That was a decent relay throw, perfectly on line but without a ton of vigor. Martínez has a cannon arm, but he didn’t show it off there; he was just thinking of getting the ball to the infield. When Gabriel Arias received the throw, though, he had maximum effort on his mind. Arias has an incredibly strong throwing arm, too. He knew there was going to be a play at the plate. He received the relay throw while already stepping into a throw home:

Don’t overlook Bo Naylor’s role in that play. The throw beat Thomas by plenty, but it reached Naylor on a short hop. Without perfect concentration, that ball would probably skip away. It hit so close to Naylor that he had to make a first-base-style scoop:

Meanwhile, though, even with an outfielder falling down and then feathering in a relay throw instead of ripping one, Thomas was out by quite a bit. I think I can show you what went wrong. Here’s Thomas with Martínez sprawled out in the outfield:

He’s nowhere near third base. Forget how hard Arias threw the ball on his relay; there aren’t many players who are making it home safely from this position:

The play wasn’t in front of Thomas; he noticed that Martínez fell, but he had to turn his head to run at maximum speed after that. But the timing just wasn’t right for even a fast runner to score. Martínez was throwing the ball in before Thomas reached third base. Arias was releasing it from shortstop before he was halfway home. Major league fielders are great. This just wasn’t a safe time to score, even after Martínez’s stumble.

It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Shaun Larkin isn’t coaching third base for the Diamondbacks anymore. Manager Torey Lovullo removed him after this very game, in fact. It was a straw-that-broke-the-camel’s-back situation, but I think it’s emblematic of how hard it is to wrap your head around just how athletic major leaguers are. Angel Martínez was on his back in the outfield, and then he made a natural-looking, low-effort move and just wasn’t. He didn’t have to make a hero throw. He didn’t have to try to whip it home on the fly to make up for his stumble. He just kept his head about him and let his natural coordination plus his team’s competence make up for the trip. Martínez has been quite bad in the outfield this year. He’s a shortstop by trade and hasn’t adapted to the broad expanses of grass all that cleanly. But making an athletic, tumbling play, and having the rest of the Guardians turn it into an out? He looks pretty good doing that.

Beginning last Thursday and continuing through the weekend, several key rehabbers made appearances in the upper levels of the minor leagues. A few might have a meaningful impact on playoff races, while others are scuffling. I dish on eight pitchers below. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. Between a vacation, the All-Star break, the Trade Value Series, and the trade deadline, Five Things has been on a bit of a summer hiatus. Baseball itself doesn’t stop, of course; weird and delightful things happen whether I’m documenting them or not. But I still couldn’t shake the feeling that this week had an extra helping of whimsy. Balls took funny hops. Good pitchers got shelled in unexpected ways. Balks took center stage. Leads changed hands late, defenders kicked things into high gear – there was so much delightful baseball this week that I struggled to narrow it down to five things. Seven things just doesn’t have the same ring to it, though, so let’s quickly nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the column inspiration and get going.

1. The True King of Contact
Writing about Luis Arraez can be a bummer sometimes. Not because he’s bad – he’s emphatically not – but because merely mentioning his name reinvigorates the age-old argument between those who say there are too many strikeouts and those who insist that slug is in the air. Should everyone be doing what Arraez is doing? Is he an anachronism? Is he underrated? Overrated? He’s so good at what he does – and what he does is so different from what most good baseball players do – that these questions are frustratingly omnipresent in any discussion about Arraez.

That said, I think I found an Arraez play that won’t divide the audience. The key is for it not to involve a ball in play, a walk, or a strikeout. Take a look at this beauty:

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a big deadline for relief pitchers, even for teams that aren’t operating in the Mason Miller or Jhoan Duran tier. The Orioles bullpen continues to get picked over like a charcuterie board: Andrew Kittredge is Chicago-bound, with the Cubs sending Wilfri De La Cruz the other way.

The Tigers beefed up their bullpen by picking up Paul Sewald from the Guardians in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. A few hours later, Detroit sent minor league pitchers Josh Randall and R.J. Sales to Washington for Kyle Finnegan and added Codi Heuer from Texas for minor league depth. Finally, the Dodgers are bringing Brock Stewart back from Minnesota, with James Outman going in the other direction.

Let’s take those in order. Read the rest of this entry »