Hunter Gaddis didn’t want to throw Juan Soto a fastball. With two on and two out in the top of the 10th inning, Gaddis started the fearsome slugger with three sliders in a row: one for a ball, one for a called strike, and one for a foul ball. Behind in the count now, Soto fouled off two changeups and then another slider. This was supposed to work. Opponents batted .135 against the two pitches this season. They whiffed 30% of the time. Gaddis had clipped the edges of the zone with the nastiest stuff he could muster — some of the nastiest stuff in the game — and Soto simply refused to be beaten. Six soft pitches in a row, and Soto was hanging back and spoiling them at the last possible moment. Surely Gaddis could get away with one fastball, right? Right?

Asked after the game about his mindset during the at-bat, Soto said, “I was just saying to myself, ‘You’re all over that guy.’” Gaddis finally threw a fastball. Soto was all over it.

The four-seamer left Gaddis’ hand at 95.2 mph. It left Soto’s bat at 109.7. Soto didn’t leave the batter’s box at all. He watched as the high, arcing blast traveled 402 feet into the Cleveland night and center fielder Lane Thomas, head craned upward, drifted slowly back to the warning track. By the time Thomas had run out of real estate and the ball had landed safely in the standing room section just past the wall, Soto still hadn’t reached first base.

The blast gave the Yankees a 5-2 lead in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series and propelled them to their first World Series since 2009. The 15-year hiatus matches the gap between New York’s 1981 and 1996 appearances, the franchise’s longest stretch away from the Series since it first reached it in 1921. Asked what was going through his mind when Soto hit the go-ahead home run, general manager Brian Cashman said, “I was thanking God.”

New York’s 4-1 series victory belies a tight and thrilling series that featured multiple extra-inning games, riveting reversals, likely heroes, and extremely unlikely goats. For the third straight game, the Yankees and Guardians were tied during the ninth inning. For the second straight game, the Yankees scored the winning runs off Cleveland’s untouchable high-leverage relievers. The vaunted Guardians bullpen, asked to pitch 28 innings over five games, actually ran a slightly better ERA than New York’s relievers, but Cleveland simply needed more from them. As has so often been the case, the Guardians always looked to be a couple solid bats short.

With Tanner Bibee starting on three days’ rest, the Yankees threatened from the very beginning. Gleyber Torres started the game with a single through the right side, then Soto ripped a low liner into the right field gap and all the way to the wall. Third base coach Luis Rojas waved Torres around third, but a perfect relay from Jhonkensy Noel and Andrés Giménez nabbed him just inches before he was able to slide his left hand across the plate. Giménez’s 94-mph laser was on the money, without a hop.

It took an incredible relay to foil the gutsy send, but two batters into the game, it was still a questionable decision. Instead of second and third with no outs, the Yankees had Soto on second with one out. Bibee hit both Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to load the bases, but managed to escape the inning unscathed. Just when it looked like the Yankees might run away with things and get to the overtaxed Cleveland bullpen early, Bibee settled down. He retired the next 10 Yankees in order and faced the minimum over the next four innings, consistently inducing chases on changeups and breaking pitches below the zone.

During the first inning, Carlos Rodón looked every bit as sharp as he had in Game 1, striking out two and retiring the side in order. He started the second inning with a strikeout as well, but the Naylor family slowed his roll. Josh Naylor tapped a grounder off the end of the bat to the abandoned left side of the infield, and the charging Chisholm had no shot at catching him at first base. Rodón struck out Noel to notch the second out, then Bo Naylor worked what would’ve been the at-bat of the game if not for what happened later. He pulled the 10th pitch he saw down the right field line for a line drive double. As Alex Speier noted, it was the first time a lefty had hit an extra-base hit off Rodón since July 28. More importantly, with a full count and two outs, Josh Naylor was running on the pitch, allowing him to score easily. Rodón still looked excellent, but after two Naylor hits and zero hard-hit balls, Cleveland led, 1-0.

The Guardians added an insurance run in the fifth inning, when Gimenéz shot a one-out double down the third base line and Steven Kwan singled him home two batters later. David Fry reached out and broke his bat on a changeup, lifting a popup into shallow left center. Judge, Alex Verdugo, and Anthony Volpe converged on the perfectly placed ball, which went in and out of the diving Judge’s glove. Verdugo tried to hurdle Judge, but somehow he didn’t actually leave the ground and was lucky not to injure the prostrate behemoth. Kwan, who had to wait and make sure the ball wasn’t caught, advanced to third, while Fry reached second with a double. Rodón’s reward for obliterating Fry’s bat on a ball that Statcast gave a 90% catch probability was a trip to the showers. He allowed five hits and two runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out six and walking one. Four of the five hits came off the bats of Cleveland’s left-handed hitters. Rodón wouldn’t be in line for the loss for very long.

Bibee came out to pitch the top of the sixth, which also meant facing the top of the New York lineup for the third time. At the very least, we have to acknowledge that manager Stephen Vogt didn’t have an easy decision in front of him. The Guardians used nine total pitchers in Games 3 and 4 on Thursday and Friday, seven in each game. Five of them appeared in both games, including the team’s big four of Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Emmanuel Clase, and Gaddis. The options were to leave in the cruising Bibee, to bring in an excellent but possibly gassed reliever for the third straight game, or to bring in a fresher but worse reliever. Vogt chose door number one, and while the call was defensible, well, we talk about the third time through the order penalty for a reason.

Torres reached out and yanked a soft liner over the third baseman for a single, and Soto ripped a more convincing single right back through the box. With runners on first and second, Judge sent a ball right to short for an easy 6-4-3 double play. That prompted a visit from the training staff, which seemed to be a fairly transparent ploy to buy Cade Smith some extra time to warm up, except Smith didn’t come in.

With Giancarlo Stanton at the plate, Bibee looked appropriately scared; he had no intention of attacking Stanton in the zone, even after he got the red-hot slugger to chase his first two pitches, a slider away and a changeup low. Bibee stuck with that approach and tried to tempt the hulking hitter with three soft pitches off the plate, but all three of them missed the zone by too much, and Stanton laid off. For the 3-2 pitch, Naylor set the target a solid 18 inches outside, but Bibee missed in a far worse spot, spinning a slider right over the middle and slightly down. Stanton did what Stanton does, shooting an absolute missile into the left field stands. The line drive left the bat at 117.5 mph and had a projected distance of 446 feet.

If you’re keeping score at home, on Bibee’s third time through the Yankees lineup, he faced four batters and allowed three hard-hit balls, two runs, and one lead. The game was knotted at two.

Vogt brought in Smith, who struck out Chisholm to end the inning. With the seal broken, the score tied, and his season in the balance, Vogt unleashed the rest of the big four. Despite pitching for the third day in a row, the quartet was effective. Smith got the first out of the seventh inning, then allowed a single, and Herrin finished the inning and pitched a perfect eighth. Clase worked a scoreless ninth, and Gaddis worked the fateful 10th. After Volpe lined out weakly to short to lead off the inning, Gaddis walked Austin Wells, then induced a groundball to second base from Verdugo. It was hit a bit too softly to get the double play, but in an attempt to get both outs anyway, Brayan Rocchio rushed through his part of the turn and botched the play altogether. Giménez’s feed clanked off the top of Rocchio’s glove, then bounced harmlessly to the turf. Everyone was safe.

Gaddis struck out Torres, bringing Soto to the plate. “He’s gonna do it,” said Chisholm after the game. “That’s the only thing going through my mind: He’s gonna do it.” None of the three runs Soto drove in was earned.

In the visitor’s dugout, Aaron Boone had the luxury of managing with the knowledge that his back wasn’t against the wall, and it allowed him to choose door number three. Fourteen relievers threw at least 10 relief innings for the Yankees this season. Among those 14, not one of Mark Leiter Jr., Tim Hill, or Jake Cousins – the first four out of the bullpen on Saturday – ranked higher than seventh in terms of leverage index when entering the game. The three combined for 3 1/3 scoreless innings, walking four Guardians but allowing just one hit. Boone finally called on Luke Weaver to pitch the ninth and 10th innings, and the slight star allowed just one hit before ending Cleveland’s season on a lazy fly ball that landed in the glove of – who else? – Juan Soto.

Stanton, who took home ALCS MVP honors, had four hits in the series, all of them home runs. In Game 5, Soto went 3-for-5 with four hard-hit balls, including a double and the series-winning homer, and raised his OPS in the series from 1.159 to 1.373. When asked why he was so sure Soto would deliver, Chisholm said simply, “Because it’s Juan Soto. Pay my guy! Pay Juan Soto!” The World Series starts on Friday, Soto’s 26th birthday.

Boyhood allegiances typically go away after a player is drafted and signs with a team other than the one he (or she) grew up following. Drew Gilbert isn’t necessarily an exception to that rule, but the 24-year-old St. Paul native does retain a soft spot for the Minnesota Twins.

“I think that happens a little more so as you get older, not necessarily exactly when you sign,” said Gilbert, whom the Houston Astros drafted 24th overall in 2022 out of the University of Tennessee. “You move around a lot. I went from Minnesota to Tennessee, and then once you get drafted you go around the country with different affiliates. I don’t want to say you lose the fandom, but it naturally goes away a little bit. That being said, when [the Twins] were in the playoffs last year it was still super fun to watch. Of course, any time you get playoff baseball, no matter who you’re rooting for, it’s a cool thing to watch.”

The 2023 Twins aren’t the only team he’s had reason to root for in the postseason. The Astros won the World Series in his 2022 draft year, and his new organization’s parent club has a chance to do so this year. The New York Mets acquired Gilbert as part of last summer’s Justin Verlander trade deadline deal. Read the rest of this entry »

Managing in the playoffs is all about balancing immediate payoffs and long-term sustainability. Not ultra long-term, mind you, but managing a bullpen for a seven-game series is trickier than simply pressing the same buttons every day until you win or lose. ALCS Game 4 featured three momentous bullpen decisions. The managers chose differently; they both paid the price. In the end, the Yankees got the better of the Guardians in a 14-pitcher, three-and-a-half-hour, 14-run shootout. But a few early decisions absolutely shaped the way the game went, and so they take center stage here tonight.

No Rest for Cade Smith

Cade Smith was one of the best relievers in baseball this year. If he didn’t play on the same team as Emmanuel Clase, we’d call him a lockdown closer. Instead, he’s a dominant fireman, capable of coming in whenever Stephen Vogt needs him to ice the opposition. And Vogt has needed him a lot. He pitched in all five games of the ALDS. He got the first game of this series off, but then he faced the meat of the Yankees lineup in Game 2 and Game 3.

He’s been pitching nearly every day, which hurts. He’s facing the same batters over and over, which hurts. But what are you going to do, not use your best option against a team that has two MVP-level bats stacked together in an otherwise navigable lineup? Juan Soto had already homered and the Yankees were up 3-2 when the top of the order came up in the sixth inning. On came Smith, for the third time in four days. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — Though he wasn’t the offensive star of Game 3 of the National League Championship Series — he didn’t hit a moonshot into the second deck like Shohei Ohtani or Max Muncy — Will Smith did collect two hits in the Dodgers’ 8-0 victory over the Mets. They weren’t exactly scorchers, but one was of critical importance, as it drove in the game’s first run. Remarkably, Smith’s performance was just the second time this postseason that a catcher has collected multiple hits in a game, and for as much as Smith has struggled, his numbers still stand out relative to the competition. It’s been an exceptionally difficult October for the men wearing the tools of ignorance.

These days, those tools actually suggest anything but ignorance. Armed with more data than ever, and playing in a pressure-cooker atmosphere where a single pitch can turn a series, Smith and those of his peers who are still standing (or squatting) in October — namely the Yankees’ Austin Wells, the Mets’ Francisco Alvarez, and the Guardians’ tandem of Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges — might be required to navigate a short-working starter and half a dozen relievers through opposing lineups, controlling the tempo of the game when things threaten to spiral out of control, and shaking off untold aches and pains. Hitting? That’s part of the job, but this fall, these catchers’ offensive contributions have felt particularly secondary, not unlike those of pitchers swinging the bat in the days before the universal designated hitter.

The numbers certainly look like those bygone pitchers hacking away. Thus far, the catchers for the 12 postseason teams have collectively hit .169/.236/.255 (40 wRC+) with five homers and a 28.3% strikeout rate through 254 plate appearances. In other words, they’ve been outhit by Madison Bumgarner (.172/.232/.292, 44 wRC+ career). Read the rest of this entry »

Cleveland’s baseball club was known as the Blues when the American League was formed in 1901, but that’s far from what Guardians fans were singing following Thursday’s ALCS Game 3. Two days before A Tribe Called Quest and other musical luminaries are to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, Progressive Field erupted in rapture as David Fry circled the bases in the bottom of the 10th inning to cap a stunning comeback and give the Guardians a 7-5 win.

More on that in a moment.

The first inning featured missed opportunities — both teams stranded a pair of runners — as well as a pitch clock violation on a chagrinned Juan Soto and a sliding catch by Guardians center fielder Lane Thomas. That those happenings barely qualify as footnotes says a lot about what would eventually transpire. Ditto a second inning that saw Alex Verdugo chop a ball over first baseman Josh Naylor’s head and leg out a sliding double on a play where second base umpire Jansen Visconti ruled that Brayan Rocchio had a foot blocking the bag (that was debatable). Anthony Volpe advanced to third on the hit, then scored on a Jose Trevino groundball single that made it 1-0 Yankees. Guardians starter Matthew Boyd proceeded to pick off Trevino, which helped to limit the damage. Read the rest of this entry »

At my old job, my boss occasionally held idea sessions. He wanted everyone to participate, and the point wasn’t to come up with something actionable, just to brainstorm. No suggestion was too ridiculous – sure, it might get picked apart in discussion, but the whole point was to suggest weird stuff and see what came out of it. Still, I can safely say that none of those judgment-free-zone ideas sounded quite as zany to me as “let’s intentionally walk the guy in front of Aaron Judge.”

That didn’t stop Stephen Vogt on Tuesday night. With runners on second and third base and one out in the bottom of the second inning, Vogt didn’t let Juan Soto hit. He put up four fingers to send Soto to first. His reward? A bases-loaded encounter with Judge, the best hitter in baseball. Obviously Vogt had a reason for his decision. I ran the math to see how well that reason agrees with theory.

In a vacuum, it’s pretty clear why this intentional walk was bad: It loaded the bases with only one out, increasing the chance of a big inning, and it did so with the presumptive American League MVP at the plate. But there were two reasons to do it. First, it took the bat out of Soto’s hands, and Soto is himself a phenomenal hitter, particularly against righties. Second, it created the chance for an inning-ending double play, which would have been a huge boon to the Guardians’ chances (they already trailed by two). If you squint, you can kind of see it; maybe these two choices are equal. It didn’t matter in Game 2, because the Yankees won going away, but if the Guardians come back to win the series, they’ll be facing New York’s best hitters in important spots again, so what Vogt chose to do Tuesday night might help us guess what he’ll do in the future. Read the rest of this entry »

As Dan Szymborski pointed out in his ALCS preview, ZiPS saw the Gerrit Cole vs. Tanner Bibee face-off in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium (and the potential rematch in Game 6) as the most lopsided matchup in the series. It’s not hard to see why. The Yankees looked like (and still look like) the better team. They have the better no. 1 starter. And they had home field advantage.

At the same time, you can see why the Guardians might have liked their chances entering Game 2. Bibee is their only starter who Stephen Vogt can trust to throw five innings; he pitched into the fifth in each of his starts against the Tigers in the ALDS. If he could give his team some length in Game 2, they could close out the contest with a barrage of well-rested bullpen studs: Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase. Simply put, the Guardians can look like a completely different team with those five arms pitching all nine innings. I imagine the projections wouldn’t have been so lopsided if Bibee, Herrin, Gaddis, Smith, and Clase were guaranteed to pitch the full game.

Unfortunately for the Guardians, Bibee couldn’t make it out of the second inning on Tuesday, let alone the fifth. Meanwhile, it was the Yankees whose airtight bullpen secured the win. New York also had a little help from nearly everyone in the lineup, powering the Yankees to a 6-3 victory and putting them up 2-0 in the best-of-seven ALCS.

Cole made quick work of the Guardians in the top of the first. Bibee couldn’t do the same in the bottom of the frame. Gleyber Torres hit a 3-1 fastball into left field for a leadoff double, and Juan Soto drilled a single into right, putting runners on the corners for Aaron Judge. We all know what happened next. Judge hit a towering shot 103.3 mph off the bat and the Yankees took the lead. And to clarify, by “towering shot” I mean “towering infield popup,” and by “took the lead” I mean “took a 1-0 lead when Gold Glove finalist Brayan Rocchio dropped the popup and Torres scored from third.”

Bibee worked his way out of the inning without any more trouble (aided by a nice sliding catch by right fielder Will Brennan), but a seven-pitch at-bat from Jazz Chisholm Jr. ran up his pitch count before he escaped. The righty was at 27 pitches by the end of the first.

Cole allowed his first baserunner in the second when Josh Naylor pulled one of his high fastballs into right field for a single, but the Yankees ace settled in after that. A first-pitch fly out from Lane Thomas, a three-pitch strikeout of Brennan, and a foul pop out by Andrés Giménez got Cole out of the inning with his pitch count after two frames barely higher than Bibee’s after one; he looked comfortable.

Bibee came out for the second with a clean slate and a chance to settle in against the bottom of the Yankees order. Instead, Anthony Volpe chopped Bibee’s two-strike putaway pitch over the mound and into center field for a single, and Anthony Rizzo laced a fastball to right center for a single of his own. For the second time in as many innings, the Yankees had runners on the corners with no outs, and while that’s not nearly as scary with Alex Verdugo at the plate, it turned out to be a bigger problem for Bibee than it was in the first. Verdugo doubled past a dancing umpire in left field, scoring Volpe and putting New York up 2-0.

After that, the Yankees had runners on second and third. There were still no outs. The top of the order was due up. The time was ripe for drama, and the game delivered. Here’s what happened next: 1) Mound visit. 2) Smith starts getting loose in the bullpen. 3) Torres pops out. 4) Another mound visit. 5) Vogt intentionally walks Soto to load the bases for Judge. 6) Vogt calls for a pitching change.

There’s a lot to unpack here. For one thing, Bibee’s day was done after 39 pitches and four outs. The Guardians would need at least another 23 outs from the bullpen if they were going to win the game. Bibee never looked awful, and in a regular season game he would have gotten the chance to work his way out of the jam. Maybe he could have done it. Still, the Yankees were clearly seeing his pitches well and hitting them hard. Part of the problem might have been that the sinker he used as a valuable weapon in his first two postseason starts was nowhere to be seen.

Meanwhile, this was only the second time a team has intentionally walked Soto to face Judge. I’m not sure I agree with Vogt’s decision, but at least in this case, it’s clear what he was thinking. With runners on second and third, any ball in play could potentially drive in a run. Soto is better than Judge at putting the ball in play. Furthermore, with Soto on first, a double play ball from Judge could get the Guardians out of the inning. No AL batter hit into more double plays this past season than Judge. Walking Soto may have increased the Yankees’ run expectancy, but Vogt must have thought it would also increase his team’s chances of escaping the inning without any further damage. That was his priority.

We all know what happened next. Judge hit a high fastball out to center field, and the Yankees padded their lead. And to clarify, I’m talking about a sacrifice fly. Smith didn’t get the big strikeout or the double play, but he managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, retiring Austin Wells to end the threat.

“They were hitting the ball around the ballpark, and we needed to stop the game,” Vogt said. “In that situation, you want to try to get a double play ball. You want to try to get two outs with one pitch. You want to try to find a way to get out of that inning, and Cade did a great job doing that.”

After another scoreless inning from Cole, Smith returned for the bottom of the third and retired the side. He threw almost exclusively fastballs, and he didn’t need anything else to stymie the Yankees. There’s a reason his four-seamer was the most valuable pitch in the league this season. If Smith’s performance was any indication, perhaps the Guardians bullpen could keep them in the game over six more innings. Still, the offense would need to get something going against Cole for any of the bullpen’s efforts to matter.

The elder Naylor brother led off the fourth with his second single of the game, sending another high fastball to right field for a base hit. Thomas came up next and reached on a tapper that Chisholm tried to steal from Volpe. Neither of them came up with the ball, and it was ruled an infield hit. After a groundout from Brennan put runners on second and third, a cautious Cole walked Giménez on four pitchers, loading the bases and prompting Vogt to make an early substitution: David Fry came in to bat for catcher Bo Naylor.

It wasn’t an ideal situation to use Fry, who is much better suited to pinch-hit against left-handers, but Vogt must have wanted anyone other than Naylor taking that crucial plate appearance. Regrettably, Fry popped out on the first pitch he saw. That sent the nine-hole hitter Rocchio to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded. He put up a real effort, driving up Cole’s pitch count with a nine-pitch at-bat, but ultimately the ace won out, getting the rookie to strike out looking on a perfectly placed curveball on the upper outside corner of the strike zone.

The left-handed Herrin was the next man out of Cleveland’s ‘pen, and while he gave up a two-out single to the righty-batting Torres, he used his balanced arsenal to retire all three lefties he faced: Rizzo, Verdugo, and Soto. After four innings, Smith and Herrin had kept the Yankees lead at a manageable 3-0, and the Guardians bats finally did some damage in the top of the fifth.

Cole’s fifth inning started out a lot like his fourth. He gave up two hits and a walk to load the bases, and this time, he couldn’t wriggle his way out. Josh Naylor drove in Steven Kwan on a sacrifice fly, and Thomas drew a walk. It was Cole’s fourth walk of the game, and also his last; with the bases loaded again and only one out, Aaron Boone called for Clay Holmes. Holmes gave up another run on a fielder’s choice and walked the bases loaded again, but weak-hitting catcher Austin Hedges, who replaced Fry, struck out to end the inning. The Yankees had a 3-2 lead.

With half the game still to play, Vogt was always going to need to use a reliever outside of his trusted core, and he did so in the fifth, handing the ball to Eli Morgan. Yet, Morgan may have been the most effective Guardians reliever of the game. He was excellent, getting three fly balls on six pitches to sit down Judge, Wells, and Stanton in order. After that, the Yankees sent Tim Hill (their own left-handed Tim H.) to the mound, and he, too, produced a 1-2-3 inning, retiring Rocchio, Kwan, and Kyle Manzardo.

With the lefty-heavy lower portion of the Yankees’ order due up, Vogt called on rookie southpaw Erik Sabrowski next. Sabrowski made his major league debut on September 4 and had just eight regular-season appearances under his belt by the time he made the Guardians’ playoff roster. But across those eight appearances, he pitched 12 2/3 scoreless innings, and then he added two more innings without allowing a run in the ALDS. If could pitch a clean sixth, then Gaddis and Clase might be able to handle the rest of the game. Unfortunately, it turned out to be too much to ask from the inexperienced hurler. On Monday, Sabrowski gave up the first run of his big league career – a home run to Stanton. Then, in Game 2, Vogt asked him to pitch on back-to-back days for the first time as a major leaguer. That’s not easy.

Sabrowski started the inning by giving up a double to Chisholm and walking Volpe to bring up Rizzo, but a baserunning blunder briefly bailed him out. Chisholm left too early from second base on what Boone said after the game was supposed to be an attempted double steal, and Sabrowski picked him off. Rizzo came through after that, doubling in Volpe (with help from a fielding error by Brennan) and bumping the lead to 4-2.

Sabrowski stayed in to face Verdugo, who flied out, before Vogt went to Pedro Avila to face the top of New York’s order. Though, as it turns out, Avila wouldn’t end up needing to retire a single batter. This time it was Rizzo’s turn to TOOTBLAN. He misread a sweeper in the dirt and took off for third, thinking it had gone to the backstop. Instead, Hedges kicked out just enough to block it, got to his feet, and picked up the ball. At about this point, Rizzo realized that Hedges had the ball and halted between the bases, so Hedges pump-faked a throw to second to force Rizzo to decide which base he’d try to reach. He turned toward third and then shuffled a little in each direction, prompting Hedges to gallop toward him. Rizzo committed just enough to second base for Hedges to fire to Giménez, so Rizzo broke for third. Giménez threw to José Ramírez; Rizzo retreated. Ramírez then threw it to Giménez, and Rizzo ran to third again. Giménez sent it back to Ramírez, who finally tagged Rizzo to end the inning with a classic 2-4-5-4-5 putout.

Hill came back out in the seventh and quickly retired Ramírez and Naylor, before Boone brought in Tommy Kahnle to face Thomas. Thomas drew a walk, but Kahnle got Brennan to ground out and end the frame.

Although Avila had thrown only three pitches, there was no question that Vogt would turn to Gaddis in the seventh. Torres led things off with his third hit of the game, and after Soto flied out, Judge stepped to the plate. Facing a dominant right-handed reliever, Judge finally, actually did exactly what you’d expect him to do, crushing his first home run of the postseason to give the Yankees a 6-2 lead:

Dating back to September, Judge had gone more than 30 trips to the plate without a home run. That wouldn’t be so noteworthy for most hitters, but it was a veritable drought for Judge, who homered once every 12.14 plate appearances during the regular season.

Gaddis stayed in for one more batter, but with the game no longer close, Vogt went back to the ‘pen and asked Ben Lively, who was added to the ALCS roster on Tuesday in place of an injured Alex Cobb, to finish the game. Needless to say, Clase never needed to warm up. On the bright side for the Guardians, at least that means the Yankees have yet to see his stuff this series.

After Kahnle and Lively each pitched a scoreless eighth inning, Cleveland came to bat one more time in the top of the ninth. Somewhat surprisingly, Boone chose closer Luke Weaver to pitch in that spot, even though the Yankees were up by four and Weaver had recorded a multi-inning save the night before. Evidently, Boone wasn’t taking any chances as he sought to secure the win.

Facing Ramírez for the second time in as many days, Weaver gave up a solo home run to the Guardians’ best hitter, snapping his scoreless streak at 18 1/3 innings. Like Judge, Ramírez had been rather quiet in the postseason before his Game 2 blast, and it was a welcome sign of life for Ramírez and the Cleveland offense. However, that home run was all the Guards could muster against Weaver, and the Yankees closer ultimately secured his team’s 6-3 win.

The Yankees were far from perfect on Tuesday night. Cole labored through 4 1/3 innings, giving up six hits and four walks. The offense was 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Chisholm and Rizzo were each picked off second base (in the same inning, no less!). Still, seven of the nine hitters in the starting lineup recorded at least one hit. Torres, Soto, and Rizzo continued to hit the ball well, while Volpe had a terrific game of his own. Most importantly, the bullpen threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits and one run. Hill and Kahnle, in particular, were excellent, and for most of the game, it looked as if the bullpen was going to have to be near-perfect to close out a close contest. Then, of course, Judge made it not so close after all.

As for the Guardians, they needed a longer outing from Bibee, and they needed more from an offense that has averaged less than four runs per game during the playoffs. Moving forward, they’ll need a better plan than hoping for their bullpen to be perfect. As Gaddis demonstrated on Tuesday, that’s just not something they can always count on.

NEW YORK — The Yankees’ road to an AL-best 94 wins wasn’t the smoothest ride. They overcame significant injuries, and at times dealt with a lack of production from just about everybody besides Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Even as they fought off the Orioles for the AL East flag, they struggled to find the right mix in the bullpen, as All-Star closer Clay Holmes suddenly struggled to lock down the ninth inning. A September shuffle that put Luke Weaver in the closer’s slot has paid big dividends, however, and so far in this postseason, the Yankees bullpen has been a difference-maker. In Monday night’s American League Championship Series opener against the Guardians, Weaver notched a five-out save to preserve a 5-2 victory.

The 31-year-old Weaver — a former first-round pick who until September 6 had never recorded a major league save — has pitched in every Yankees playoff game thus far. He closed out all three Division Series wins against the Royals, going four outs in Game 1 and five outs in Game 3; he also made a one-out cameo in Game 2, New York’s lone defeat. In six shutout innings, he’s allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out nine of the 21 batters he’s faced (42.9%).

In fact, the Yankees bullpen has allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 18 2/3 postseason innings, for a 0.48 ERA. The unit as a whole has surrendered just 11 hits and five walks while striking out 20 (28.2%). Holmes, like Weaver, has pitched every game and has thrown six scoreless innings himself, striking out four while yielding just three hits and one walk.

“Comfortable is not quite the right word. I think tonight was a little bit of a grind for me personally,” said Weaver of Monday night’s 24-pitch save. “I felt really good coming in in the eighth. The ninth, coming back out for the first hitter was a little sloppy, I think that was noticeable. The windup just felt a little funky. I felt the adrenaline coming out of the eighth, [but] going back out for the ninth, was a little depleted… I felt like it was a tick down.”

After Weaver walked Lane Thomas on five pitches to lead off the ninth, he gave himself a bit of a pep talk, flashing a bit of humor as he explained. “So when Thomas got on, it just became like, ‘What are we doing? The fans don’t come here to watch that.’ So I was able to throw some good pitches, and was looking for the double play, but was able to get these good counts.”

Weaver went long because the Guardians had threatened to tie the game. Starter Carlos Rodón had dominated for six innings, holding Cleveland to just three hits while striking out nine without a walk, generating 25 whiffs along the way; meanwhile the Yankees built up a 4-0 lead against starter Alex Cobb and reliever Joey Cantillo, who threw four wild pitches and walked three while retiring just one hitter. The Guardians cut the lead to 4-1 when no. 9 hitter Brayan Rocchio led off the sixth inning with a solo homer off Rodón.

As was the case in the Yankees’ two ALDS wins in Kansas City, Holmes was the first number called by manager Aaron Boone. He didn’t waste much time, inducing Thomas to hit his second pitch, a 96-mph sinker on the outside edge, for a soft groundout. He fell behind Josh Naylor 2-1 before Naylor lined a high-and-away sinker to center field for a routine out. Holmes capped his night by battling pinch-hitter Kyle Manzardo (hitting for right fielder Jhonkensy Noel) for eight pitches before striking him out chasing a low-and-inside sweeper.

“He’s been the nastiest guy we’ve had out there,” said Weaver of Holmes’ middle relief work. “He’s absolutely setting the tone.”

With no off day before Game 2, and with two lefties and a switch-hitter looming, the lane was clear for lefty Tim Hill to pitch the eighth. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt swapped out lefty Bo Naylor for righty Austin Hedges, an even weaker hitter despite the platoon advantage; he flied out. Andrés Giménez followed with a single, and then Rocchio shot a single under the glove of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was back in the lineup for the first time since fracturing two fingers on his right hand on September 29. Rounding first, Rocchio made contact with Hill, who in moving to cover the bag ended up right in the baseline. Though the pitcher had the ball and tagged Rocchio once he retreated, the umpires ruled he had already committed obstruction, and awarded Rocchio second base.

Giménez scored on Steven Kwan’s single, offsetting Giancarlo Stanton’s solo homer in the top of the frame; it was the first earned run surrendered by the Yankees bullpen this postseason. That prompted Boone to summon Weaver, who fanned pinch-hitter Will Brennan (batting for David Fry) on three low pitches, the last a changeup in the dirt, then induced José Ramírez to ground out to second base.

In the ninth, after walking Thomas, Weaver recovered to strike out the side. Naylor chased a low-and-away changeup. Daniel Schneemann battled to a full count, then tipped a 95-mph four-seamer into Austin Wells’ mitt for the second out. Finally, Weaver blew Hedges away on three pitches, giving the Yankees a 1-0 series lead. 

Afterward, pitching coach Matt Blake praised Weaver’s command as the key to his success in working long. “His ability to get in the strike zone early and be effective and be efficient with his pitch counts — he can collect outs quickly and he’ll strike guys out, but he doesn’t have to do seven or eight pitches to get there.”

While the save may not have been easy, Weaver still looked like a pitcher who had been doing the job of shutting the door for much longer than six weeks. A year ago, the role would have been unthinkable. Weaver was designated for assignment twice in 2023, first by the Reds on August 16 — a point at which he briefly wondered if he’d reached the end of the line — and then by the Mariners on September 10. Even with three solid September starts for the Yankees, he finished with a 6.40 ERA, his second season in a row and his third out of four above 6.00; to that point across eight partial seasons in the majors, he owned a 5.14 ERA in 574 1/3 innings, mainly as a starter.

The Yankees had seen some traits in Weaver’s spin rate, arsenal, and clean mechanics that they believed they could tweak, and Weaver embraced the possibilities. Over the winter, he simplifid his delivery, ditching a high leg kick and adopting a slide step. He also adjusted the grips of his four-seam fastball — previously, his middle finger wasn’t in contact with a seam, costing him spin efficiency — and his changeup, helping him generate more spin. Needing to throw 15–20 pitches per outing instead of 80–100, he gained velocity, and recovered more quickly. Two weeks ago, Weaver likened the streamlining to a runner with smoother, tighter arm swings and less wasted energy.

Working out of the bullpen allowed Weaver to ditch his less effective knuckle curve, slider, and sweeper. The changes “helped bring some earlier contact, less foul balls, less getting beat on the pitch,” as he said on Monday. “I think it’s really just the perfect storm of better movement and more confidence.”

For the season, Weaver pitched to a 2.89 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 62 appearances totaling 84 innings. As Marquee Sports’ Lance Brodzowski noted, the vertical separation between Weaver’s fastball and changeup increased from about 8 inches last year (16 inches of induced vertical break for the four-seamer, 8.2 for the changeup) to about 14 inches this year (18.6 inches for the four-seamer, 4.6 for the changeup). The results on those two pitches improved dramatically:

At the outset of the season, the Yankees saw Weaver as a potential sixth starter who could provide multiple relief innings in lower-leverage situations. He allowed seven runs in 10 2/3 innings over his first six appearances, but graduated to a higher-leverage role by reeling off 18 consecutive scoreless innings from April 20 through May 20, giving up just five hits and two walks while striking out 24.

Weaver endured some midseason ups and downs, posting a 3.66 ERA and 4.60 FIP across 32 appearances from May 22 through the end of July. Meanwhile, a whole drama unfolded around Holmes. Through June 9, the 31-year-old sinkerballer allowed runs in just two of his first 30 games, posting a 1.23 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Despite scuffling a bit over the rest of the first half, he made his second All-Star team in three years on the strength of a 2.77 ERA and 2.73 FIP. Even so, he’d already set a career high with six blown saves in 27 chances, owing largely to a .342 BABIP. He blew two of his first three save opportunities coming out of the break; one of those blown saves came in an eventual 7-6 win over the Phillies on July 30, hours after the trade deadline passed.

After jumping out to a surprising 40-19 start without the injured Gerrit Cole, the Yankees went just 25-26 in June and July; the swing merely dropped them from two games ahead of the Orioles to half a game back, but without Holmes’ blown saves, they might have enjoyed a bit of breathing room. At the deadline, even as general manager Brian Cashman supplemented the bullpen by adding Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs and Enyel De Los Santos from the Padres, Holmes remained Boone’s ninth-inning guy despite increasing scrutiny and pressure. In his role as team captain, Judge expressed his support for Holmes after the Phillies game, which saw the pitcher surrender a one-run lead on two singles, two groundouts, and a wild pitch:

Aaron Judge on Clay Holmes:

"That's our closer. I don't know what else to tell you. That's our guy. He's been our guy. I want him out there in any situation, bases loaded and no outs or extra innings or bottom nine, top nine — that's our guy. You can ask anyone in this room if…

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) July 31, 2024

Holmes pitched better in August, but still blew two saves, making him just the fifth pitcher over the last decade to reach double digits in that category. By the numbers, which included a 2.67 ERA and 2.48 FIP through August, his season was in line with his 2022 and ’23 campaigns except for a few extra barrels, but the late-inning losses helped keep the Orioles around. As I noted on September 4 while writing about the Yankees’ left field situation, Boone’s avoidance of publicly acknowledging the struggles of both Holmes and Alex Verdugo may have earned loyalty within the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the rest of the organization), but only wound up a frustrated fan base and invited media scrutiny. Things reached a breaking point on September 3, when Holmes served up a walk-off grand slam to the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford. Boone finally addressed the situation the next day: “In the short term, we’ll kind of just get a little creative” with a closer-by-committee arrangement.

He never did have to get too creative. On September 6, he called upon Weaver to close out a 3-0 lead against the Cubs, and the righty did the job, striking out two in the process. “I couldn’t see straight. I was blacked out for the most part. I was on pure adrenaline, but it was a great time,” Weaver said. He went 4-for-4 in save chances, and allowed just one run (unearned) in 11 innings after taking over the role; most impressively, he struck out 24 of 40 hitters in that capacity (60%) while giving up just four hits and three runs. With Holmes in a setup role, things clicked into place for a remade bullpen that included the additions of lefties Hill (who had been released by the White Sox in late June) and Tim Mayza (released by the Blue Jays in early July) and the returns of righties Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton from injuries; the former didn’t debut until May 22 due to a bout of shoulder soreness, while the latter was shelved from May 28 until September 7 due to a lat strain. From September 6 onward, the Yankees bullpen threw 81 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a major league-best 32.5% strikeout rate.

Since October rolled around, New York’s relievers have been even better. And now, they’ve helped bring the Yankees within three wins of their first trip to the World Series since 2009.

This is the Carlos Rodón the Yankees thought they were getting. When Brian Cashman inked the lefty to a six-year, $162-million contract in December 2022, Rodón was coming off a two-season stretch in which he’d gone 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2021 to 2022, his 11.2 WAR ranked the third among all pitchers. But, like Samson of old, Rodón’s strength deserted him when his beard fell victim to the Yankees’ facial-hair policy. A forearm strain and a hamstring issue limited him to 14 starts in 2023, and when he did take the hill, he ran an unsightly 6.85 ERA. He was better this season, but he was by no means the ace the Bronx faithful were expecting.

That guy finally showed up on Monday night. Rodón powered the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, going six dominant innings and allowing one earned run on a solo homer. He blew his fastball by the Guardians and tempted them over and over again into chasing his slider as it burrowed into the dirt. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now down to our final two teams in the American League, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, who will hash things out in the best-of-seven ALCS starting Monday in the Bronx. Baseball, like most sports, is at it’s peak for fun when there’s something to prove and a little bit of competitive vengeance worked into the mix.

It’s now been 15 years since the Yankees last won the World Series. Unlike their last long championship drought, during their mediocre 1980s and early ’90s, the Bombers have mostly been good since their 2009 title. They’ve made the postseason 10 times in that span and have played in five Championship Series (though they’ve failed to advance each time). Yes, the franchise that was once accused of destroying baseball because it was winning too many championships now draws scrutiny for lately having won too few. There are a lot of reasons for the organization’s relative lack of success lately, but many fans point to a mysterious blend of Brian Cashman, too much analytics, not enough bunting, and Aaron Boone, who at various points has been accused of being the worst manager to have ever existed. Until the 11th time’s the charm for the Yankees, nobody’s going to fear Mystique and Aura.

If the Yankees face a drought, the Guardians are dealing with one of Joadian proportions. Where the Yankees were emblematic as the big evil franchise, the theme among Cleveland baseball for a long time was ineptitude. When they filmed the movie Major League, there was little controversy as to which franchise would play the doormat protagonists. At least the Cubs were considered losers of the lovable ilk. The last 30 years represent the most successful epoch for Cleveland baseball, but the franchise is still lacking a World Series trophy during that span. The last time Cleveland won it all, in 1948, neither of my parents were even born yet, and I’m a man approaching 50 at a distressingly rapid rate. In three of its last four playoff appearances, Cleveland met its demise courtesy of the Yankees. So, of course, the Guardians’ path to the World Series runs through New York; eliminating the Yankees surely would elicit an extra dose of satisfaction.

But who will come out on top? I usually start with the ZiPS projections, because it would be an awfully strange approach to not use the projection system I have on my PC.

There will no doubt be some shifting as the series progresses, but I don’t think ZiPS would have a change in the basic story: These teams are fairly well-matched. All seven projected games stay within that 55/45 split, so it would be tough to call anyone a significant underdog. ZiPS is going a bit against the grain here; it was one of the outliers in liking the Guardians in the preseason.

So, where are the imbalances in this matchup?

The Yankees have the edge on offense because of their talent at the top of their lineup. Yes, José Ramírez is my pick for the most underrated player of this generation, someone who should be seen as a probable Hall of Famer despite rarely getting anywhere near the commensurate attention nationally. But he’s the Guardians’ only elite offensive talent, and we’re putting him up against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at their peaks, which is a whole different tier of awesomeness. Looking at the Judge/Soto projections vs. Cleveland’s pitching makes clear just how perilous that portion of the Yankees lineup is going to be for the Guardians.

ZiPS thinks enough of Emmanuel Clase to make Judge mortal and thinks Matthew Boyd is just a good enough starter with a lefty split to stymie Soto a skosh. But you can’t avoid these two, and the Guardians don’t have any comparable sources of terror in their lineup. There’s a part of me that wonders if every team should use a solid reliever as an opener against the Yankees if it has a deep enough bullpen, simply because of the certainty of facing Judge and Soto in the first inning.

The drop-off after Judge and Soto is tremendous, however. Of the remaining seven hitters, ZiPS expects Gleyber Torres to have the highest on-base percentage (.335) and Giancarlo Stanton to be the only one with a slugging percentage above .450 (.462) against Cleveland’s lefty pitchers. Against righties, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the highest projected OBP (.326) and SLG (.443) in the non-Judge/Soto department.

This gives the Guardians some interesting tactical possibilities using their bullpen. With the Yankees having two players with an unusually large proportion of their offensive firepower, it should be a bit easier for the Guards to sprinkle in lesser relievers based on just where they are in the lineup.

The difference between the rotations aren’t as large as one might think. While ZiPS thinks the Guardians have one of the weaker rotations in the playoffs this year, after Gerrit Cole – the best projected starter on either team – the Yankees aren’t all that frightening either. Carlos Rodón has the next best projection, but the Guardians have had a notable platoon split that favors matchups against lefties this season. Luis Gil is having a great rookie season and ought to appear prominently on most AL Rookie of the Year ballots, but ZiPS still sees him as a guy with an expected ERA someone around four, with Clarke Schmidt faring slightly worse.

Cleveland’s rotation finished 2024 with a 4.40 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, both toward the bottom of baseball. But the rotation isn’t that bad, simply because it has largely eliminated most of the sources of this lousiness. None of Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, or Logan Allen will face off against the Yankees this upcoming week. When looking at the four starters most likely to get starts for the Guardians, ZiPS sees Gavin Williams as the one with the highest projected ERA (4.17). ZiPS is less enamored with emergency options like Ben Lively and Joey Cantillo, but still has both of them on the sunny side of a 4.50 ERA/FIP. Cleveland’s starters don’t have a lot of pizazz, but like the breadsticks at Olive Garden, they’re serviceable and there’s a lot of them. Because they Guardians have a deep rotation, they don’t need to cobble together bullpen games just to survive, which allows manager Stephen Vogt to comfortably utilize the best projected bullpen in baseball right now in the highest-leverage situations.

For the Dodgers-Padres NLDS preview, I ran a simulation for how the probability changed if both teams had a game in which the starting pitcher got knocked out after two innings and the teams played one 15-inning game. In that one, the Padres gained five percentage points in the projection based on this scenario. The Guardians, meanwhile, gain 10 percentage points if we use the same two hypothetical events, going from slight underdogs at 47% to a mildly comfortable favorite at 57%!

Cleveland’s other advantage is having the better bench. The Guardians have myriad platoon options — David Fry or Jhonkensy Noel against lefties or Will Brennan and Kyle Manzardo against righties — and being able to deploy them for the right matchups is a small but real bit of value. Combine bench and bullpen and ZiPS thinks the Guardians have the edge in one-run games by a 54%-46% margin and a 52%-48% edge in games decided by two runs. Blowouts are most likely to go in the Yankees’ favor, but in those hard-fought close contests, the Yankees are slight underdogs.

The Yankees or Guardians will not face a juggernaut in the World Series if they make it through the ALCS. The Mets have some significant team weaknesses, and injuries have resulted in the Dodgers’ being kept together with a roll of duct tape. Whichever team wins these next (up to) seven games has a good chance of finally ending its title drought.